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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  April 25, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EDT

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that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thanks for joining us. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche with julianna tatelbaum in london and geoff cutmore in zurich. these are your headlines shares in ubs slump as the bank reports a 52% drop in net profit it sets aside additional provisions and focuses on the continued integration program of collapsed credit suisse. something the ceo sergio ermotti
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says he is optimistic about. >> the risks are complex i don't think this transaction is a risky transaction it will take time to get to the final operating model. the dispoiappointing ubs numbers brought on the biggest drop in a month which is showing issues in the quarter. and novartis hikes the full year jouloutlook. >> unless there is a challenge in the market environment, our push is to make that happen and strategic and long term and know this is the right thing to do for shareholders. and nestle hits the sweet
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spot with the food giant topping first quarter estimates as prices offset over declining volumes. the earnings are coming thick and fast today let's start with ubs a 52% drop in first quarter net profit after a legacy legal issue with mortgage backed securities which led them to set aside $655 million it reported inflows of $42 billion in the first quarter you can see the stock is down 4.3% points today. this is held broader european banks with deutsche bank down 3%
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commerz bank down 2% santandir is down as well. let's get to geoff in europe you had the opportunity to speak with ceo sergio ermotti at the time with the speculation of the combined entity. let's start with earnings. what stood out to you and why do you think the stock is down 4% >> reporter: that is a difficult question to answer on the face of it, the earnings looked relatively solid. i don't think anybody is happy about the provisioning that is a legacy issue that dates back some 15 years the americans will take their dollar and they are going to take their dollar and it is a specific sum that has been provisioned for which makes me
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suspect they are pretty close to putting a signature on a piece of paper although they are rather cautious here at ubs and just saying they are deep in the discussions with the doj if you x-ed out the provisions here and the underlining earnings weren't too bad, but reflect a more difficult macro environment. one where you see a lot less corporate activity right now and you see lower capital market activity those opportunities for fee-generating income have been red reduced. coming back to the tpoint you were making so much of the story is about integration risk going forward. we have a timeline for the end of the second quarter for full announcement on the program. something that i talked to sergio ermotti about and i asked him effectively what can you tell us so far about the risks
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related to the integration program. let's hear what he had to say. >> in the next couple weeks, i will redefine our target operating model for the future and some organizational announcements and clarity. you see, this type of transaction you prepare for a couple of months before the announcement and make the announcement and you can be transparent and clear about the strategy going forward th so this decision was going in two days we have to be patient. of course, we still believe we will close the transaction by the end of the quarter i intend to give updates between now and then >> some of the source reporting has suggested that there's like a hungers games going on among senior management. as it comes to whether it is a
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ubs or credit suisse manager who survives in place. do you think that describes the type of discussions taking place in various businesses? >> i have to say i'm not hearing those discussions. i think i will make my decision based on merits and having the right person in the right job for the tasks. >> is the litigation going to be a problem? there are a number of cases swirling around. some involving the at-1 bondholders and some involve credit suisse suing the bank how do you deal with these >> we will tackle the issues when we are in control our attitude on litigation is the game we reach settlement. we find solutions when appropriate and we fight where it is appropriate. at this stage, i'm pleased we are closing a chapter.
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15-year old chapter of our litigation of our invention. we'll tackle the next one when it is time >> the chairman of the agm talked about execution risks being a potential problem in the merger to what extent are those risks now clearer to you given the due diligence you've already done? >> i think the risks are considered with complexity i don't think this transaction is a risky transaction it will take time to execute the operating model. this is a transaction that creates more benefits to shareholders and employees in the long run i'm confident we will manage those risks. >> was it the steal of the century? >> i don't think so. if you look at the situation and
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how we come to the transaction at this point in time and you look at certain dynamics, it doesn't look to me >> reporter: there we have it. sergio ermotti talking about the integration challenges let's circle back to reasons why the share price might be lower today. one of those might be the suspension of the share buyback program ubs lined up $1.3 billion worth of shares to be bought back. the bank said it is not cancelling the program it is suspending the program i guess one positive note, one part of the world challenging of late for all internationally focused banks has been asia, specifically china when i asked about the macro environment, that's where we began. let's listen in. >> the end of the lockdowns in china has created not only, you know, people being out and
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willing to spend and to be back to normal, but a sense of relief and positive attitude. i do think we are now at a new level of declined activity of course, the geopolitical issues surrounding not only in asia, but worldwide, are still affecting client sentiment to go back to the fully normalized business outcome is on two fronts. >> is it possible to tell how much of that money came from credit suisse? >> we are not disclosing the numbers. it is not a meaningful number compared to the rest of our inflows. >> can i ask about the broader macro environment? the outlook is thin for the second quarter could you flush it out for us and talk a bit about why you've given the outlook you had?
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>> at this stage, i'm only comfortable to say we don't know the situation is still very uncertain across the board both in terms of macroeconomics and the fight of inflation is not over we don't know if central banks will go higher with rates which i think may be necessary high inflation has a much higher long-term cost than recession. i do believe that we need more visibility on that front we need more visibility on how to resolve some of the geopolitical issues. only through that will we be able to have a more constructive and definitive view of the outlook. clients are also waiting for that >> do you think we troughed yet in the fall of economic activity or corporate m&a activity?
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what is your sentence? >> i think we had ups and downs. this time, without a doubt, volatility and declines were on the sidelines. i think it is very difficult to judge. it depends on the topic of we will see a recession or contraction of companies it is early stage. we are definitely on the careful side in respect of the outlook also for equity markets. >> is u.s. recession now your base case? >> not base case, but likely toward the end of 2023 and into 2024, we will see a slowdown in the u.s. >> reporter: that is the wrap up on that and i'll send it back to you. the issue, i think, is the issue for everybody at the moment that is very eloquently explained by the ever smooth sergio ermotti there. visibility is just weak right now. so much depends on how inflation
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measures up going forward and whether the central banks continue to lift interest rates here in their fight to beat down price rises. so much will determine the profitability for the banks looks like for the rest of the year back to you, guys. >> geoff, i'm sure it is a question mr. ermotti will get for years to come. not just the next earnings geoff, you were in zurich in m march on that fateful week we are getting announcements that the emergency dollar measures in place are reverting back to normal that tells you in the sense of financial contagion what credit suisse and ubs meant for the banking system can be seen as a one w
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one-off episode. that is a bookend to the story geoff, thank you for reporting today. to give you more color on that announcement let me read what the bank of england put out. in terms of the u.s. dollar and funding conditions, the bank of england and bank of japan and european bank in consultation with the fed decided to revert the frequency of the daily operations to once per week. going back to normal at the time they introduced the operations of liquidity, because they would be a big bid, it hasn't transpired for a couple of days. that's why they made the announcement reverting back to normal putting an end to the emergency measures let's look at markets. you saw in the opening there with ubs shares taking a hit down 4%. we are seeing a broad based pull back it is not just ubs trading lower. stoxx 600, the benchmark,
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down .50%. sentiment turning negative in the last 12 hours. in asia, we saw selling pressure overnight. breaking it down by market, the split is interesting in switzerland, we have a strong performer. nestle and novartis seeing their shares this morning pulling the sector in the green. outside switzerland. it is in the red ftse mib is down 1%. we have losses for the ftse 100 and cac 40 and the dax of course, from an earnings perspective, the u.s. is taking center stage later today with the number of the big tech names reporting. alphabet and microsoft first up today. back here in the sector perspective. the banks are down 2.1%. the pull back in ubs is having a drag effect on the broader sector we are seeing some sizable
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losses across the european banking situation. basic resources with heavy selling pressure down 1%. food and beverage up slightly. nestle and novartis with a solid session. joumanna back to banking news santander with a profit in the first quarter of 2.57 billion euro the lending in europe helped offset the performance in u.s. and brazil the bank is on track to hit the full-year target the stock is down 3.5% in line with the banking sector trading in the red we have james here joining us at the desk great to have you here on the big bank earnings day. let's start with ubs and what we got out of them today. they obviously have become the
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only effective large bank in switzerland. you have to look through the details with the macro level and micro level. let's start with the earnings rather than what will happen with credit suisse anything happening with the outlook and net interest income? >> the earnings are relatively solid. i agree with geoff take out the provision in the u.s. which is a legacy issue i think the issue for the markets is not saying this is peak that is why all of the banks are reacting so badly. it looked like a fairly benign set of earnings. why is it peak it is clear we are now getting competition for deposits that net interest income is as good as it gets. if inflation doesn't drop where they have higher rate cycle, that would be good for the top line, but we have potentially higher provisioning. they were caught between two
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stories. that's what the bank doesn't like >> it is like the good run for banks is coming to an end because we're at the peak of the cycle or if central banks have to continue, we are seeing more credit provisions in the banking system even though banks had a good run, the valuations are looking cheap. why has that not caught up with the dynamics at play >> the great say which is valid. you don't buy cyclical sectors it feels counterintuitive. it makes sense the market is very good at sniffing out when something is at peak. of course, what will drive banks from here has to be more earnings momentum. you are likely to get re-rating if the earnings are declining. that is what the market is saying how could you square the circle? what makes you bullish
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i think if you find a solid bank to deliver strong dividends, you can make your money on the income side. in terms of re-rating of banks from the peak earnings level, i think that is overoptimistic to be fair. >> maybe we know the answer to the question after what you explained. the growing expectation of the 50 basis point hike at the next ecb meeting. could this be a boost to net interest income or negative which is an indication of recession down the line? >> the rule of thumb is the first 100 to 150 point rate rises is a positive for the bank that is telling you it is going into recovery for the business cycle. the next 150 is roughly neutral. we're in that latter stage where, you know, inflation is going to fall.
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i heard geoff said the ever smooth sergio ermotti saying that he was worried about inflation continuing to rise that is obviously a risk if you look at commodity prices, it is clear that inflation is going to come down in the short-term and probably quickly. we are in the last phase of rate rises. that is where it tends to be less positive for the banks. the risk you have for the banks is we then end up with a situation with competition from funding, but also have to think about the rate rescuts in six months time. is that positive for the banks lower rates hinders, not helps they are cautious. >> credit losses between those two outcomes. >> exactly exactly. of course, with ubs, you have the specific idiosyncratic issue
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with those terms >> let me broaden the conversation out you have a broader line of the markets. you think we are on the cusp of unleashing a dragon. the golden aimige of growth that is different from others who join us on set they will see how much the economy contracts. you are in a different camp? >> i am positive why is that? a lot of the way we look at the economy is calibrated to the last 15 years which has been this lower for longer, disinflationary cycle. you see a lack of investment in areas. that's what caused the big spike in commodity prices and energy prices recently and effectively the cost of living crisis. we haven't yet seen the positives that come out of the
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higher inflation environment you are starting to see and obviously, i look at companies companies are investing again. governments are starting to invest again you see the better nominal growth rate. although real growth might knonot be great, but growth is happening quickly again. you could end up in a virtuous circle in 2010, we talked about escape be velocity. that is where we get to with markets once we get through the peak inflation period and you could end up with a possibpossibles t -- positive >> you are screening the companies on the strength of the balance sheets and cash flow they have because that terms how much money they can put toward investment which siectors stand out
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>> industrials for example, steel it was steel in a bear market for the last 15 years. there hasn't been a huge amount of growth. from the capital cycle perspective, those companies are starting to invest there is the decarbonization for industries if you are supplying industries, capital goods suppliers, mining equipment suppliers, you are in a good place and you are starting to see order books take off. >> and you saw that with abb the swiss industrial giant their order book is healthy. james, thank you for joining us on the show. james sym from river & ame merc mercantile find out which banks are attracting the short interest on
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cnbc pro our premium service. that backs up what james is saying with short interest in the space. >> certainly interesting one to check out. we will take a quick break we leave you with a look at markets. when we come back, we talk earnings a number of big companies reporting this morning and pretty interesting moves we'll be right back. it's hard to run a business on your own. with shopify, you have everything you need to setup your online store, to connect with customers, and to bring your dream business to life. because when we work together, the future is bright. these days, your customers are not just down the hall. they're all over the world. so cute. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today.
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welcome back to "street signs. let's get to the reporters nestles with 5.6% growth in the first quarter. the swiss food giant raised prices 10% in the quarter. offsetting the fall in volumes nestle reaffirmed the full-year outlook. abb with the jump in the first quarter profit and raised full year guidance the ceo told cnbc he expects input pressures to ease. >> it has slowed down. if you look at the -- logistic
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prices, it has been lower. that is reflecting in the way that we drive our business forward. still, of course, last year was very different huge inflation some of the prices are rolling over to this year. we can see that on the margin. we don't expect to see price increases this year. novartis with the 3% rise in the first quarter sales. this was as the drugmaker upgrade full year guidance and the spinoff of the drug business shares are up strong 2.6% for the year the ceo told cnbc he is confident about the growth this year >> you look at the first
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quarter, we had 8% sales growth. we are getting back with the revenue growth in europe and similar portfolio. i think there are two big dynamics one is inflation pressures with sandoz we hope to see that moderate over 2023. and bayer with the outlook for full year expecting to pick up in the second half of the year the german group says it expects business to be sluggish in the first six months of the year compared to a relatively strong first half of 2022 we are gearing up the beginning of the european evearnings seasn some industrials are pointing to good growth. >> the novartis numbers are seen
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as encouraging with the q1 sales and upgraded their outlook early in the year. the other standout in terms of what was interesting is nestle they have been trying to offset prices and nestle is able to continue raising prices nearly 10% of price increases that's substantial and not the key here >> volumes were down .50%. to tie back in what unilever ceo has said recently when we spoke to him is we we may be at peak inflation, but not peak pricing. we will squeeze in a quick break. when we come back, we are going to be joined by the team on the ground at the conference where fintech and cryptocurrency is front and center stay with us we'll be right back.
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signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum along with joumanna bercetche and geoff cutmore in zurich. shares of ubs slump as the bank reports 52% drop in first quarter net profit this as it battles to integrate credit suisse. something the ceo sergio ermotti is still optimistic about. >> the risks are considered with comp complexity i don't think this is a risky transaction. it will take time to find the right operating model and execute it this is a transaction with more benefits. the disappointing ubs numbers push the banking sector lower. santander is key in the asian markets.
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and novartis hikes the full year outlook the ceo is optimistic about it >> unless there is a challenge in the market environment, our push has to be to make that happen and be strategic and think long term and know this is the right thing to do for share shareholders. nestle hits the sweet spot with the company topping first quarter estimates with the offset of overall declining volumes. welcome back to "street signs. let's check in on markets. it has been a risk off the last 24 hours for wall street and the hand over from asia is not positive in europe, we are in the heart of earnings season a bunch of companies reporting ubs in switzerland and
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santander. results came in line with santander with a beat over expectations the reaction in the banking sector is negative we have reports from abb pointing toward a more positive outlook and pharma with novartis with positive results. that is why the swiss index is doing well the only spot of green on the board led by novartis. the rest ofthe board is in the red. some commodities coming under pressure with the risk-off sentiment from china cac 40 is down .60%. dax is down .30% macro is squarely in focus there has been talk of the last 24 hours talking about the potential for the 50 basis point hike at the next meeting that will have impact on growth. something to bear in mind with
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company earnings switching to u.s. futures. this is the picture in the u.s another risk-off day seen happening. s&p opening down 20 points dow about 130. and shares are down for first republic after the embattled bank reported that clients pulled $100 billion in depos deposits the lender had a 40% decline after the infusion from the american lenders first republic will lose 25% of the work force to cut costs. the stock is down 90% for the year so far. >> speaking to me on the sidelines in london, we had a cautious note on what is next for the banking sector
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>> we know that when you get down to it, what happened was a dramatic change in the macro environment. higher interest rates which exposed flaws in business models exacerbated flaws we knew were there, but didn't appreciate them the flaws are still there. there are other imbalances that built up in the long period of low interest rates which have not come home to roost we need to know what these are to anticipate the changes to come the crisis has been dealt with excellently. starting with the fed and silicon valley bank and credit suisse that isis giving depositors
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comfort. >> also, i asked the moroccan finance minister if she sees signs of inflation in th country abating any time soon. >> we just had the latest figure we are seeing the inflation going down i think the monetary policy and also the measures taken by the government and worldwide, we have seen inflation in some part of the products are in position i think we are doing the right thing to decrease the inflation. the high court in hong kong ruled cryptocurrency is property and can be put in a trust. the interpretation comes after a liquidity indication which
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involved gatecoin let's get to arjun who joins us from the conference. >> reporter: good morning, julianna the theme here today is the future of fintech and future of crypto assets. cities and countries trying to position as hub for cryptocurrency one is hong kong i'm joined to talk further with the executive director of the hong kong financial services council. doctor, we are talking about hong kong and trying to position itself as a hub for digital asset location why are they still chasing the market >> we know crypto and blockchain
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is here to stay. it is important to come through the framework for the industry it is not just about cryptocurrency, but digital assets >> in terms of hong kong's perception globally following the dgovernance and the strict covid measures, has this been damaged? we have seen a large number of people international people living there move out. >> i think it was short-term because of covid restrictions. now hong kong is bouncing back strongly the government laid out a road map with new growth drivers. family office hub and technology is up. as well as green finance hub >> with the framework, what interests are you seeing at the
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moment from digital asset companies at the moment? give me numbers if you can >> very exciting in fact, two weeks ago, we had two major events in hong kong. we had over 10,000 visitors from over 60 countries visiting hong kong >> what is fascinating is the differences between hong kong's approach to distal assets versus what you see in mainland china the government and pboc and central government stamped out trading and mining over the past few years. whereas now in hong kong, you are seeing, you know, a more open approach to digital assets. how has it come to pass that hong kong has been able to push ahead with such a policy >> that is another great question we have one country and two systems. that is approved that hong kong is an independent territory with
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our own legal system in hong kong, we have free capital flow to us, the developing additional assets is not just about crypto, but blockchain technology and dlt. this is really a new way to grow the financial market. >> many are wondering if beijing is using hong kong as a test bed for digital assets is this an indication that the central government in mainland china is thinking about loosening policies >> china is leading the world in digital assets if i remember correctly, blockchains from eight industries that sets the template for the private sector to use
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blockchain they banned crypto as we know, we have stablecoin backed by fiat currency. >> these are government enterprises. these are the pboc digital yuan. this is not private companies thriving in mainland >> they are private participation in blockchain. the blockchain network is a public-private partnership the architect behind that is a hong kong based company. >> with hong kong allowing more cr crypto focused firms and other trading platforms to register, do you think that is a pre-requisite to potentially more open policy toward crypto firms on the mainland? >> you have to separate the two. in hong kong, we are allowing
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crypto exchange to come to hong kong with the framework. it brings transparency and also assurance that all of the products are properly licensed if they are to be offered to retail customers >> what does hong kong say to digital asset companies? we want to be a hub for web 3.0 and so has london and uk and dubai and singapore and other places what differentiates hong kong? >> hong kong is a pubhub for financial markets. in asia, hong kong leads the pack with this size, we also have a as super connecter status we are now offering technology
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connection in the digital space. >> dr. king, thank you for insight into hong kong and the digital asset space. that was dr. king from the council. fascinating story playing out with jurisdictions trying to lure in crypto firms as this may be the future to where many financial services go. julianna and joumanna, back to you. >> arjun, thank you so much for that interview. a lawyer for cnbc's hadley gamble said she made a come pl -- complaint against nbc's jeff shell. nbc retained outside counsel to investigate which led to shell being terminated with cause according to the s.e.c. filing cnbc has reached out to comcast and nbc universal for comment
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and shell and his representatives. comcast owns nbc universal the parent company of cnbc tucker carlson has left fox news days after media group's sett settlement shares of fox fell in trade yesterday. the most watched primetime host. coming up on the program, we bring you more from the conference where fintech and cryptocurrency is front and center stay with us we'll be right back.
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and this is ready to go online. any questions? -yeah, i got one. how about the best network imaginable? let's invent that. that's what we do here. quick survey. who wants the internet to work, pretty much everywhere. and it needs to smooth, like super, super, super, super smooth. hey, should you be drinking that? -it's decaf. because we're busy women. we don't have time for lag or buffering. who doesn't want internet that helps a.i. do your homework even faster. come again. -sorry, what was that? introducing the next generation 10g network only from xfinity. the future starts now.
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welcome back to "street signs. coinbase has sued the s.e.c. compelling them to answer a year-old petition setting out guidance for the industry. the s.e.c. has yet to respond to the petition, but pursued action against coinbase the legal officer says the firm has not been told how the law
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applies to the business. and crypto is dead in america according to the cnbc.com article arjun is here with more on crypto arjun, that is the theme today >> reporter: absolutely. regulation regulation debate is key we are about to hear from one of the key regulators in the u.s. kristin johnson. she is joining me now. debate over crypto regulation in the u.s. should look like. give us the headlines. >> what i say at the outset is we are prepared to carry out the issues in front of us. we are subject to oversight. we are doing that already in the context of certain enforcement actions. we are doing that in the context of direct engagement and
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inviting people in to talk about the framework and hopefully continuing to support congress as they craft legislation to help us. >> this debate playing out right now. are crypto assets commodities or securities s.e.c. alleges the cftc says they are all commodities. what is happening here what is the view how does this get resolved >> the framework works which means congress needs to step in and help there is a gap in how the law governing securities and commodities as we apply to the technology that is assets created using ledger technology digitally. something i share is a harmony between the two statutes there is a path forward. we used that path in the context of defining swaps.
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over-the-counter derivatives part of the regulatory mandate in 2010 with the dodd-frank act. the s.e.c. worked together after congress gave us that direction to find a path forward >> many of the crypto companies i have spoken to in the past two weeks say there is regulatory uncertainty in the u.s we need clarify. we need to understand what we can and can't do at the moment when it comes to lawmakers, a number of bills are floating around the state others looking to the s.e.c. and cf cftc do you feel there needs to be crypto specific laws in the u.s. what does it look like >> i do think we have to be careful to have dynamic regulation that is not just responsive to the asset classes in the market today, but gives us the flexibility and capability to respond as entrepreneurs and
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coders of softwares and continue to release more and more interesting asset classes and products and financial markets under immediately existing laws, there is provisions to understand how securities would apply to the laws and the same in the context of commodities. i agree with you it is imperative that congress step up and make their preference known to deal with the spot market oversight. if we went narrow to your point, that spot market oversight piece is critical. it is helpful for us if congress assists us with that guidance. >> i think our audience would love to hear about the case the cftc was involved in can you give us an update? binance is not part of the u.s.
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laws >> the fact a company is not organized in the united states or intend to trigger regulation in the united states doesn't mean they are free from regulatory oversight our regulations make plain where you involve u.s. customers or cause effects that impact the stability of the u.s. financial markets, we have authority going back to the 2010 dodd-frank act, there is a provision there we are using for the first time in the binance litigation that provision is anti-evasion principle. that works in a specific way to prevent someone from orchestrating abroad outside of the united states overseas a business to impact u.s. customers to attract or solicit investors and describe cause and effect in the united states. our reading of what we have seen in terms of the evidence suggests that could be applicable with binance and our
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division has brought a case alleging the same. >> how does the cftc deal with the case >> any ongoing litigation matter is shrouded in protections any defendant is innocent unless suggested otherwise. i want to be careful not to prejudge what will happen. i want to say typically in the context of any litigation, we are always ready to have conversations and ahead of the litigation, we have been in continuing conversation with the business to understand potentially problematic conduct and opportunity to explain conduct and help us find a path forward. as of the moment, we can conclude there is not an immediate path forward that doesn't mean there couldn't be one. >> that was kristin johnson.
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fascinating insight into what is going on with the debate of how to regulate crypto assets in the future julianna and joumanna, thank you. >> thank you for the interviews. a lot of views of the crypto winter and standard charter with a report of $100,000 by the end of the 2024. and crypto is done by others in america. there are plenty of opinions about where crypto is going. >> turn around to say the least. quick look at u.s. futures before we head out of the picture. we are still leaning to risk-off i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worldwide exchange" is coming your way next. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you have everything you need to sell online and in person. you
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. futures under pressure as the busiest week of earnings season rolls on alphabet, microsoft and mcdonald's set to report today speaking of earnings, shares of first republic bank sinking ahead of the opening bell. hear what miller

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