it is a big day for stocks after that meta moment nasdaq leading, but a god od day for the dow. 550 points honeywell giving the industrials a much-needed lift interest rates are higher despite the lighter than expected rate on gdp s&p good for almost 2% that's better than 80 points it brings us to the talk of the tape the meta caps. deidre bosa is here. >> we'll get a little bit of the consumer and a lot on the enterprise to with this cloud business a lot is at stake. we know the business has been

de decelerating i think as much attention is going to be paid to that core online source sales. it's missed expectations investors want to know all these investments, all the extra capacity that amazon added during the pandemic is going to pay off. that's going to be important a bright spot could be advertising. so far from the other mega caps, meta, alphabet, hasn't been as bad as feared. that's the theme going into amazon can amazon pull that off as well >> what a ramp too, dee. we'll be back to you we look forward to those earnings coming out. analyst mark maheny is with us now 155 bucks is the target. mark, what are your expectations maybe they're higher streetwide.

>> the expect tations are highe. i'm not sure they should be. we had some specific meta developments last night that i don't think you can extrapolate. meta had nice revenue growth acceleration google didn't have that. my fear would be -- i'm a bull on amazon. my fear is that amazon and aws because they have greater exposure to smbs, they could see sort of worse trends, near term. i want to be cautious on amazon. if you're a long-term investor, it's a trough market >> outperformed, but not overly excited.

awa growth expected 15%. that would be the slowest year over year pace since 2015. how much lower are we going to go >> i think that's the number one issue on the stock there's two issues here. that's one we'll get this recovery in the retail business because almost all the cost inputs have dramatically improved from last year which was horrible. the third thing is is this company going to be more aggressive in terms of cutting costs. i don't think they will. aws, i think it's going to be sub that 15% the real debate is how low will it go in the june quarter? they'll probably get a little color commentary i think the market is braced for that i'm not sure why it's a positive surprise if aws -- people think about it being a high single

percentage grower. all the trends, i think, unfortunately for aws are negative >> no more cost cutting. you really think the street is prepared for that? i mean, i've heard people criticize alphabet for not being more aggressive in the way that meta and some others have. you think the street is prepared for no more? >> i'm not sure it is. that's why i'm near term cautious on the stock. meta, i know we're trading up on meta meta is a one-off here this is a management team that were cutting costs and they needed to bring down expenses. they got that memo they've embraced it aggressively i don't think google has i don't think amazon has i think amazon needs to do more. you know, if the market wants greater cost efficiency, i think amazon like google plans to grow into it. it's been a great wonderful

success story for them and a good recipe for a long time. if you're looking near term, those aren't companies. >> how much pressure do you think is on jack >> i think the people who are in the stock for the long term are fully behind him the management team is fully behind him he came in at a very unusual time for that company. it's the most challenging time that amazon as a company has faced in ten years i think he'll get -- he's got a lot of opportunity i don't think there's going to be any pushing for him to leave. i think he'll execute well out of this. i just think it will take longer than people would like look, if you're willing to look 12 to 18 months out, this is classic dhq. you want to be long amazon until '24. >> we'll see

mark, appreciate it. >> thanks. now let's bring in alex cantowhich one of the best analysts set it up for you what are you gothinking >> i think mark was looking at my notes as he spoke i bought into amazon following their q2 earnings last year. i figured all the bad news was out there. with the stock being down about 50%, i said it doesn't have anywhere to go but up from here. i think it notched its 52-week low. i know it's come into the 80s and we had been seeing them

hover around that point. my expectation was that andy would need 12 months to be able to identify where the cuts needed to be made and then make them and see what other moves needed to be made. i think we're still in that window i don't think all the cuts have been made. i also accident think we'll hear the cloud competing demand has come back. it's still going to be soft here >> wow, alex one of the top analysts has it outperforming at 155 i have the shareholder not all that excited about the near term mark says it's the most challenging time how do you see it? >> i'm with malcolm and mark on this you have challenges for amazon on two fronts. the consumer is not spending as much in the heyday of the pandemic that's the retail side

small, medium businesses are pulling back anywhere they can find costs to cut, they're finding those cuts. you're looking at cloud services now that's being pulled back like they said, 18 months it's going to be bumpy for amazon they have to get out of this infrastructure spending. the fed moderates a little bit, maybe rates go down, you have predictability in the economy, great times for amazon >> what about the pressure, if any -- i'm presuming there has to be some -- on jaffy whether he was left a shiny automobile or a beautiful automobile with a nail in the tire, what's the issue >> i think it's fashionable to

be anti-jaffy for the year you see bezos hanging out having fun. bring bezos back the reason why you bring jaffy in is he's there for the future. jeff bezos is smart. he knew the company needed the most help in retail, but long term the future was cloud. they're trying to even it out in retail they had announcement on ai. that's why you have jaffy running a company like this. get through the tough part in retail it's the leader there, the cloud. it needs to fend off microsoft nobody is in a better position to do the job and i don't see bezos coming back. >> malcolm, when you talk about the competitors, yes, they have

the most market share in terms of cloud, but microsoft is the one that seems to be stealing the mega cap thunder whether it's ai or whatever else they continue to knock the cover off the ball and leave a lot of people in the dust >> they also have the largest -- they have the highest accelerated growth in the cloud space. they're taking away the most market share from aws among all the other competitors, google cloud and everybody else i agree there are challenges out there to that. they have like a 34, 35% market share. it's not everything. it's not 93% of searches i think it's a important that amazon figure out ways to divest itself from its neediness from aws. that's what i'm most interested in hearing what's

>> their biggest competitor in cloud is microsoft

you can't argue that microsoft hasn't seen any benefit in cloud with this ai talk. they're on the cutting edge. that makes people think, hey, should i be thinking of azure. maybe jaff should say ai on the call. >> i've been telling you for months that i thought if there was a meaningful rally that tech was going to have to participate in a meaningful way to lead that bull market. i think that could be what we're seeing a lot of people want to get

positioned properly so once the bull starts to rage they don't miss out on microsoft and amazon i also think it's too soon all the data we've been getting from earnings from big tech hasn't been that impressive. it's earnings expectations that were on the floor or above it. they beat expectations that were guided as low as they could go there's nothing impressive here that would tell me we should be piling into tech over the next couple weeks we'll see some of the air let out of the balloon. >> wow, he's hard to please. microsoft and meta would tell you otherwise, would they not? >> they would. the cool thing about big tech, there's stuff to believe in. think about the moves or going to efficiency after spending a lot of time. they had work to do to please the market and they started to do it. can this momentum continue that's the big question.

a lot will depend on where the fed goes in the next few months. >> next week before i let you go, i don't want to forget that snap -- snap reports too. maybe they have the benefit of not being the first mover. they have been the first ones before meta and before alphabet to report generally speaking at least of late which wasn't the greatest position to be in because they got crushed the last couple times talking about the softness in their business what do you see here >> look, if they're looking to be in better position because they're after meta now, whoops >> i don't know why i even brought it up. now it will work against them. >> they have high expectations right now advertisers need an advertising package they can bring to their executive teams and show roi meta can do that can snap do that i don't think so it hasn't proven it.

now they're going to try to say we'll get budget after what meta turned in. good luck. >> we'll see i appreciate it. that's alexander malcolm, both cnbc contributors. let's get to stock up now,

down 22%, heading for its worst day in ten years they specialize in chips used in electric vehicles. they fell short of expectations. stock downgraded by oppenheimer. >> we'll see you in a bit. that's kristina partsinevelos. we're just getting starting on closing bell we're in rally mode. look at what we're doing here. we're off the highs of the day dow is still good for nearly 550 points the s&p, 2% up nasdaq has been stealing the show all day the nasdaq up 300. near 2.5%. we have an all star panel

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nasdaq outperforming today on the back of meta. big week for tech in general is it a sign that earning season will be better let's ask our two experts.

what's your takeaway, kristen? >> it's interesting. the earnings we've heard so far, a lot of it has been -- yes, there has been surprises, but it's about this expense control and really strong management and not just about top line revenue growth we go back to the story when we're looking at technology in particular if you look at the nasdaq and the decline index as well, there's not a lot of breadth there. >> you go where the money is going. is the breadth too narrow? what's riding on amazon as the last to report >> i don't know if so much is riding on amazon maybe it's specific to amazon itself i thought the market would challenge 4,200. it fell back on oil, closing that opec gap. it fell back on the first republic news. what has the nasdaq done what has meta done it steadied a wobbly market.

i don't think you can make this universal declaration that the earnings season is a strong one. this is specific to a couple of names within technology, but the relevance of these names is overwhelmingly important in terms of lifting the indexes >> it has been overall better than feared, would you admit that >> the earning season? >> yeah. >> okay, yeah, better than feared. >> it was knock the cover off the ball great, but it was far better, far better, to this point with about 50%. >> it doesn't take us out of an earnings recession this calendar quarter, which we are in right now, we are going to see the most intense economic contraction and potentially the deepest earnings contraction of what will be a sequential three quarter decline for earnings. >> yes, but it may not take us

out, kristen, of the earning recession, but if it marks the trough, if it marks the -- expectations are it's going to be better. >> we have 7 out of 11 sectors in a earnings quarter. we're seeing binary stories. it's about quality companies that came into this being very well prepared and we have to go back to the economy and we have to go back to these leading indicators the leading indicators are telling us -- look at gdp. they're telling us the economy is slowing down. credit is tighter. we know the fed is most likely going to raise another 25 basis points this makes it harder to be pr prof profitable yes, you can be invested, but you got to play defense. >> do you think anything of

today, 500 plus points on the dow, has to do with gdp weak, fed done >> i don't think the market is pricing that probability of an interest rate hike, still high the equity market is telling us one thing and the fixed income market -- really the rates market how could we think everything is fine, but six months out the market is pricing we'll have cuts if we're having cuts, it's because we see a recession low volatility in the market and the levels we're seeing, it's because everyone is invested in treasury they're taking money out of equities, sitting on the sidelines. there's not a lot of breadth here there's short positioning out there still which is why we see this range bound market. >> two-year treasury up 2 basis

points stack flation is represented in that gdp report. we're seeing prices still higher there's an uncomfortable nature within that and it falls back upon the fact that what was perceived to be the optimal strategy going into 2023 has not been the optimal strategy. what's been the optimal strategy is what at the end of q4 everyone wasly liquidating because of the market cap share, that's what's lifting markets now in an environment wher

balance sheets and diverse if i indication >> can i buy ps cycle cle

you used to own honeywell for example, however, when you look at a stock like that come off earnings, stock has a good day today. can you buy industrial stocks like that now? >> i believe you can to kristen's point you can find that story where the quality of nature is represented in those companies. you want to say it's a stock picking environment. okay, it's a stock picking environment. what you can't do is what most money managers did, they concentrated in the direction of one.

i don't think you can do that here in 2023 you have to acknowledge what's unfolded in terms of the economic climate. >> i got to leave it there thank you both very much up next, we are setting you up for intel's results in "over "overtime. later, some scary stock statistics is a market zombie apocalypse coming by the way, edgar denny is joining us momentarily 30 minutes until amazon earnings dow's good for 523 30 minutes left. we'll be back in two or three. communities and the people who live and work there

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we're back it's not just amazon

intel expected to post its largest ever quarterly lost thanks to rising competition let's bring in stacy raskan. good to see you. look, you just upgraded the stock. i know you're laughing you know where this is going you upgraded it about a month ago. about as half hearted an upgrade as you'll ever see an analyst do. >> the title of that was we hate this call. >> you hate this call. you hate the stock what is going to make you like it again >> hate is a strong word i used it. it makes it personal it's not personal. >> you used it i didn't use it. >> true. the big question is is it as bad as it can get?

we'll find out it's pretty bad. as you mentioned, it's one of their biggest quarter losses in history. gross margins are going into the toilet the revenues, it's incredibly bad. that's kind of what investors are looking for. you want to get the feeling that it is as bad as it can get it can't get any worse and hopefully as things get into the back half things can get better. that's the call. the reason we upgraded it a month ago, it wasn't we thought their strategy was on the right track. just for the first time in forever -- i was finally above given some of the current dynamics, the market is weak they're weak they were overshifting then you look at the numbers versus the dynamics and i was forced to admit maybe the

numbers are too low and that gives you some kind of grounding. >> let me interrupt you. i apologize. you think pcs have bottomed or are close? >> i think -- if you look at q4 and q1 pc shipments they were bad, but they were almost dead in line with precovid levels we're back to that 250 to 260 million pc shipment run versus 350 million in 2021. we're back to a normalized level. the cpus are the things that intel ship they were well below that. cpus probably undershipped by 20, 25%. you have to assume that the cpus were undershipping by even more and they're making up for the overshipment we had. at some point that has to

normalize. at some point you're not undershipping that weak market i think that can happen in the back half of the year. >> let me ask you this, for the other big issue, data centers. whenever -- look, i'll be frank. i don't know the answer to this question i'm presuming you know more about this than i do ai, does intel data center have anything to do with that business why don't we hear about ai at all related to this company like we do almost everybody else it seems this day will it be a big player there? >> they're going to try, right they have a road map of ai accelerators, similar to what invidia sells. it's not going very well they got into some of their forward road maps and it's a tough road invidia also has a massive software mode. on the cpu side there's some ai

applications that run on cpus. their new product sapphire rapid has accelerators on it for those work loads some of the ai servers don't have the gpus. at least in the near term they're probably getting some of that, but over the long term, as more and more work loads become accelerated and are taken up by some of these other pieces of silicon that aren't cpus that's something intel has to deal with. >> what's the over/under on how many times ai is said on the call >> he better say it a lot. >> stacy, thank you. don't miss pat gelsinger

tomorrow on cnbc edgar denny is going to join us dow is still good for better of 500 points kristina partsinevelos is standing by. >> hey dude, the shoe brand not cutting it for crocs it's weighing on the stock we'll have that name and much more after the short break ♪ imagine, a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is spacious. as smart as it is beautiful.

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we got less than 20 minutes until the close. dow still up by more than 500 points back to kristina partsinevelos for a look at key stocks. >> hasbro is one of the top s&p 500 performers today shares are up. hasbro still expects the toys and games market to remain flat this year. that's why hasbro and mattel are focusing on intellectual property they're launching co-branded games and toys. crocs on pace for its worst day since march 2020 the strong performance for shoes, shares are down 16%

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ed, market has been a little wobbly lately. did we resolve anything this week >> it's been wobbly for a while. it's been holding its own. it's still holding around that level of february 2nd and, you know, so i think all in all the market's reacting pretty well. the earnings season makes it hard to conclude there was a recession in the first quarter by now, the pessimists are saying we'll see a big dive in the market today's gdp was pretty good. it looked weak, but that was an inventory swing from the first quarter to second quarter related to increased inventories. real gdp was up 3.4% led by consumer by 3.7% looked pretty good. >> morgan stanley is looking at negative for the second quarter.

the economy is undeniably slowing. maybe that's why money is going into places like meta and microsoft and perhaps amazon today. >> scott, i've been saying we've been in a recession since the beginning of last year it's just been a rolling recession. while lots of folks are waiting for the recession shoe to drop, housing has been in a recession, the grid sector has been in a recession and yet gdp continues to grow. the good sector may be bottoming and consumers are buying goods again after mostly buying services housing may also be at the bottom things make a lot more sense in explaining what's been happening. >> are we capped to the upside there are targets of 4,200 by virtue of what the fed does next week and if the economy

isn't as bad as you suggest, maybe they'll do more? >> my year end target is still 4,600. i think the markets should be struggling here a little bit on the way to the debt ceiling crisis which may or may not go to the last hour when it comes to the fed, i think the fed will do the quarter and i think they'll be announcing a pause not so much because of the economy or inflation, but simply because the banking crisis isn't over just the other day we had the market down and concerns about the banks again. >> we'll talk to you soon, ed. thank you. always good to hear from you we head close to the end here. ten minutes to go. cnbc's mike santoli here, plus sebastian page and whether a

market zombie apocalypse is on the horizon. >> a combination on the fundamental side things not getting quickly enough to push the aggressive selling beyond what we've seen. it's looking like a shake-out. everybody has been focussed on the poor breadth of this market. the indexes may be making the market look like it's in better shape than it is it's the way the market, when all else is going okay, it lets certain sectors pull back, while the overall index could do okay. then, if amazon proves to be over its skis or apple doesn't deliver, mega caps can calm down

and the rest of the market has taken its pain >> we've seen that movie before. >> we've seen it plenty of times. >> when you let the other parts of the market take that rest, we've been here before. >> that's the benign read on it. i'm not saying everything is going to be fine because the market always fixes itself the market doesn't always fix itself if the fed says no pause in sight, we'll have to deal with it people got a little bit beared up because the market has its first 1% drop in a month. >> it's been a minute. sebastian page, correct me if i'm wrong, when you were sitting to my left, you called yourself a reluctant bear that's the words you used. are you still in that camp >> scott, i'm still reluctant

and i promise if i change my mind, you're going to be the first one to hear it. >> thank you. >> look, you just heard edgar. the economy is slowing down. yield curve massively inverted tmis have dropped. you had a weak gdp the market is trading at 18.5 price earnings ratio there's a lot to like about tech good businesses in cloud, digitalization they're cutting costs. there's excitement about ai. if you step back, overall we re remain underweight not massively,

indicators red you have to be careful and not go all the way to cash. >> i hear you, but it sounds like you have to be really

tactical if you deploy your small cap strategy why not set it and forget it in mega caps for the time being >> the spread in valuation between large and small caps, especially quality small caps -- let's talk about the s&p 600 as opposed to the russell that spread is so wide by historical standards small caps are trading -- they're basically rivaling 2008. the price earnings ratio is back to those levels. no one wants to be in small caps right now. the banking stress is not helping. i would counter the idea that you have to be super tactical. take a one-year horizon, 18 months, and at some point you'll be happy when the recovery kicks in you'll have this beta in your portfolio and you're not paying

18.5 like you are for the s&p 500. >> i hear you. they're cheaper for a reason on one hand if you're worried about the economy going into a deeper slowdown, it's a hard thing to convince people to buy small caps right now and maybe say you got to wait a year >> put it this year, if i put it altogether, i end up neutral on my total portfolio risk. the way i get to neutral is playing offense and defense. defense on the stock market overall and then offense where risk assets are cheaper. small cap, high yield. i don't want to be completely uninvested in cash right now because, despite the bearish narrative, the consumer is strong china is re-opening. europe is doing okay natural gas prices down 70%. you have nuance that -- you just -- neutral is a great place to be. >> all right

i appreciate it, sebastian sebastian page brenda is awaiting the amazon earnings. about tfive minutes or so brenda, what do you want to hear tonight? >> all ears will be on what's happening with aws given the cloud strength we saw from microsoft and google as we know, clouds -- aws has been slowing even though the backlog was up a did h decent amount, 37%, is that going to be stabilizing? bigger question for all the cloud players is how does ai factor into this it's going to be an important part of growth and allow them to more into more of a specialized more for

i think that's really what we're looking to get clarity on. as always with amazon, it's always about the margins that tends to surprise one way or the other they overspent their core retail business, infrastructure and looking to see have they been able to realize cost savings there yet or not i think those are the bigger questions we're looking for answers to. >> you want more cost cutting or not? >> yes i think amazon is one where we can definitively say since the company has been a public company they've reinvested a ton of money back into the business. that's been disappointing to shareholders and contributed to market volatility on the stock they've admitted they overinvested and they can potentially work on cutting costs and focusing on profitability which could be significant if they weren't investing as much in the business that would be an important

turning point for the company certainly. >> we'll see if we get it. mark, 57 minutes suggested we might not. we have two minutes until amazon reports. dow up better than 500 points. nasdaq on the show has been the outperformer by 2% s&p 500 a good day as well, up 2% there's your two-minute warning. mike santoli, yields rising? >> yields perked up. people were seizing on the stronger domestic spending numbers in the gdp yields not really challenging those levels we saw in march the fact that you have better breadth on the new york stock exchange today, 80% upside, that can answer some of those

questions. when it comes to amazon, that stock has badly underperformed since the pandemic it's trailed the s&p 500 by a noticeable amount. investors do view the e-commerce business as a source of friction in costs and complexity on the story. we want to hear about a little more margin discipline on the consumer side. >> what do you make of denny versus page, bull versus bear, telling understandable stories about why they held the positions they do? >> it's in a period where if you have high conviction, you have to be ignoring something it's an ambiguous set of circumstances. 4,600, where ed is projecting -- here's the thing, it sounds aggressive, but we traded at 4,800 15 months ago.

i feel like the market is acting as if it's in a neutral state. i don't think valuation is the problem for the average stock. for the mega caps it's a headwind i'm going to say the low is in i'm not sure about the upside. >> we'll find out with the final report of the week that's coming up with morgan and john in "overtime. a major rally across the board as meta lifts the mood wasn't the only one. s&p 500's best day since january. the action is just getting started. i'm morgan brennan with john ford our team of reporters is standing by to give you results from amazon,