>> yeah, looking at pins, i expect them to converge between the the domestic and international arpu >> dan >> yeah, a week from now, apple reports. i think it's as good as it gets for this period. qqq, selling a rht, t >>lliggoit thank you for watching got it thanks for watching fast see you tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast." meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to teach but to entertain a bit and educate so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer most of the time all we ever

hear about these days are the fed and interest rates, fed and interest rates i find it nauseating the yield curve is not why i got into this racket but then there are days like today. where we actually focus on investing. investing in individual companies. not trading the fed's next move. not underweighting sectors like these are all components, they're all same, it doesn't matter what they do. that's what makes this so exciting and then when the dow soars 425 points the s&p surges and the nasdaq soars 2.43% -- >> the house of pleasure >> on the densest day of earnings season, the day we get numbers from the most companies in one session i find the whole day to be a giant celebration of the ingenuity of executives and their teams. it's validation not just of how good our companies are and the ceos are but of the very concept of stock picking over index.

i've always believed that if you do the homework and pick the right stocks you will be able to make much more money than you would by parking everything in an index fund or a bunch of made-p up etfs that bundle entire sectors together in a single dull basket yet so many supposed experts tell you that stock picking is for chumps that you're better off not even trying because they say it's impossible for you to reliably pick winners days like today i think show you that's norn sense. i say buy some s&p 500 buy an index fund. also buy some stocks indexistas believe you will neff figure it out. and i will let you in on a secret they have total contempt for your attempts. a self-serving view if there ever were one. so why don't we go over some of the opportunities the index fund evangelistas would just say you know what, you're never going to find, so don't take them you've got to start with one that everybody uses at least from the numbers i saw today

we've got to start with meta platforms. the artist formerly known as facebook which reported a breathtaking quarter today. last night i should say. even after today's magnificent 14% run i think there could be much more ahead. yeah a lot more upside. which is why we own meta for the charitable trust, where we do have a huge win. a year ago meta was being written off as a tired old growth company even though it wasn't all that old. it had an embattled ceo mark zuckerberg being one of the few executives who's disliked by both democrats and republicans he's a uniter, not a divider but now meta's been roaring for six months in a view that was widely seen as a short covering track. today we learned this run is real it's based on the kind of foundational change that you simply can't catch if you only own just an s&p 500 index fund and remember, i want you to own both own individual stocks and s&p if you have time and inclination. meta's mark zuckerberg has done something truly amaziamazing.

he's embraced artificial intelligence to get people to engage more with facebook and instagram. and he succeeded with a.i. users were only posting a couple of times making it so you didn't need to bother to check your feed making things worse apple changed its privacy policy to make it harder for meta to do targeted advertising but a.i. changed this company. last night's call mark said that he wasn't happy with how things were going i love the candor here so he creatively called on a.i. to identify posts that you might want to see from people you've never heard of he used a.i. to boost what he said the massive recommendations and ranking infrastructure that powers you will of his products. i think only microsoft is doing more with a.i. right now although mark may be doing more to tell you the truth. the result as mark put it, quote, more than 20% of our content in your facebook and instagram feeds are recommended by a.i. from people, groups or accounts that you don't follow, end quote. across all of instagram it's about 40% of the content that you see.

can you imagine how much growth there will be about this meanwhile, again, using a.i., he's got reels, his tiktok knockoff on a flight path where it can actually catch up to tiktok and one day i think, i think match its immense profitability. people reshare already reels more than 2 billion times every day. it is doubling over the past six months that's an insane number. when you consider meta now has more than 3 billion people who use at least one of their apps 5e67 day i'd say this company has not only come all the way back but its earnings per share will be amazing. can you imagine what happens next year when it starts what makes me even more confident about buying this stock even at 230, up 29 points today, is zuckerberg's actively taking down costs which we know sadly is a euphemism for firing people he's fired nearly a quarter of the company. when revenues go up and costs go down you get what i call a long-term earnings explosion

which can fuel tremendous gains well beyond what we saw today. i'm aware they took a $4 billion loss on metaverse. i heard that all day when people tried to say this company didn't do real stuff. i don't leek that number either given how revenues declined. but that's just the cost of r&d, like a drug company might do to refresh its pipeline maybe the metaverse bet won't pay off. zu zuckerberg's early embrace of a.i. saved the company, though i'm confident he'll take the reins on spending. that'sn't he showed you that already? we know microsoft's exploiting a.i. like no other with its 10e billion investment in open a.i., the company that created chatgpt. they're using artificial intelligence to reengineer and reshape everything from azure that's their cloud division that did so well this quarter to bing their search engine that's making a comeback. no wonder the stock won't quit again i think microsoft goes higher even after hitting a new 52-week high today and yes, i am excited. why? because these are ones i've been pounding the table on. i pounded the table on that darn metaverse for heaven's sake. i was out there -- i don't even

think he had the faith i had in it actually, i think maybe. it's not just tech how about eli lilly? today lilly talked about how they're about to ask the fda for approval to sell their diabetes drug as a weight loss pill based on -- go like that based on the data we have, we hope it's going to be the pill one day. based on the data we have it could be a game changer. it's looking like get this, this is what this thing does. not only does it lower -- is it good for diabetes and lowers weight, it lowers cholesterol, it lowers blood pressure, and here's a new one it can cut out heavy drinking. and heavy drinking's just plain bad for you. much as it pains me to say that since my wife owns a mezcal company. >> the house of pain >> jumped 14 bucks today it's been a horse. genuine secretariat. it's run from 312 to 390 in less than two months because we don't have enough good news on the fda approval yet i do think it can run and run and run some more. there are a lot of good drug stocks out there but lilly is the standout how about chipotle

caught in the scrum between cheesecake factory and applebee's and then it reports a magnificent quarter like it did tuesday night with a definitive resellration that saw broad wall street reraise the stock up sending it up more than 200 points yesterday amazing. not only is chipotle back but it's going to stay back and i don't think the run is finished by any means now, some stocks haven't had their day in court yet but they're still running on the backs of others. nvidia's the number one pick, by the way, in today's stock picking contest. nvidia's been mentioned by both alphabet and microsoft as the backbone of their artificial intelligence engines the true engine of a.i. is nvidia's h-100 card. you can buy one. i saw one on sale. go on e bay. you'll see it. 45 grand you ready for that but one's not enough you've got to buy a boatload of these things when i asked how many of these cards these big users need a source from the customer side said as many as we can get yes, nvidia's the backsboen, the engine of a.i. and a.i. is the future own it don't trade it.

finally general electric which has become the darling of the industrial because after it's finished breaking itself up it's going to be the only pure play on aerospace that's not boeing it's become the hottest manufacturing segment in the world. ge is what boeing would look like with a lot more luck. and certainly i wish they had that kind of management. i think all of these winners, every one, is still a buy. there will be many reversals in this market, especially the debt ceiling doesn't get extended in time so you're going to get your chance so bottom line, if you don't want to buy these stocks when they're up huge immediately after earnings, put them on your shopping list and wait until the next marketwide pullback gives you a better price let the squabbles between the house and the senate around the debt ceilinging once again give you a better price they always do mike in illinois mike >> caller: hey, jim. happy to speak with you. mike from chicago.

>> all right >> caller: i love your show. i think you're a guru. >> oh, thank you man, i make a lot of mistakes. i'm the first guy to admit it. i'd love to never make a mistake. how can i help >> caller: my question is i bought 500 shares of wingstop the day of their ipo eight years ago. and i'm showing a heck of a profit here. and i'm wondering what your opinion is, if i should sell some, sell all, or hold before the earnings report. >> let me give you my rap. all right? first of all, what you must do, we've got a new ceo. i like the other guy too tomorrow morning you're going to take out your cost basis then what happens, you are playing with the house's money ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ and let it ride. today was the kind of day that rewarded the companies that are changing their stripes and the stock pickers who have been confident enough to invest in them and weren't bamboos ld out of them by people who create etfs to make a lost money for

themselves if you missed out on the big movers this week put them on your shopping list, wait for the house and senate to give you a about thor price with investors thinking there's tightening what do you do with a well-run insurance company like chubb? i'm going to talk to the ceo then pioneer change in the c suite. i'm learning more about the transition from the outcoming and incoming ceos. and caterpillar, wow, fell real bad after earnings what the heck is going on here great quarter. why don't we talk to the company's top brass? so stay with cramer! >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets send jim an e-mail at madmoney@cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com. icy hot pro starts working instantly.

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last year when the federal reserve was tightening like crazy the insurance stocks were one of the few sources of strength in the market they did just fine in the slow dondown, even benefit from rate hikes because they can take the premiums, invest them in traerkzies, other fixed income assets but this year the group's gotten hit. the fed's nearly at end of its relentless push to raise interest rates and some of the people in this group they're reckless i'm just going to tell you some of the other companies are reckless but do not confuse that with this company chubb limited. it's the best-run property and casualty insurance company on the planet with a rapidly growing life insurance business i've got to learn more about that chubb rallied 14% in 2022. it's down nearly 10% year to date makes no sense to me including a real dip yesterday in the wake of what i thought was a terrific quarter technically the company reported a top and bottom line miss

fueled by larger than expected catastrophe, or cat losses plenty of positives here record core operating income, incredible growth in life insurance. no negatives so what the heck, why isn't this stock up let's check in with evan greenberg. he's the chairman and ceo of chubb limited. what comes next? mr. greenberg, welcome back to "mad money." >> jim, it's good to be with you. it's good to return here >> oh, thank you well, this is a moment where you want to own your insurer you are growing and growing faster with new lines. you're growing faster. i must admit i was a tad confused by the stock price. and i was wondering is it because you had catastrophe losses and people didn't expect that >> no, i don't think so. the catastrophe losses were not a chubb-specific the industry it was a bad quarter for catastrophes so every company's reporting that it was a minor miss and when you look through it as

you said we reported a 15% growth in eps. our revenue was up about 18% in constant dollar investment income was up 30% we published a combined ratio even with cats of 86 and change. our principal business, our u.s. property casualty business, grew double digit europe grew double digit >> high net worth personal >> high net worth personal had the best growth in 15 years. >> which is incredible because -- >> it is >> -- that's a terrific business that grows well anyway and i saw this growth. it's an acceleration >> and it produce aid terrific result in markin >> i know. >> the company's going from strength to strength -- >> personal lines. i mean, literally -- we went over this. my team went over it we he were trying to find how we could justify why the stock went down and we just couldn't >> i think it's a fool's game to try to imagine one day of share price or two days of share

price -- >> explain to people if you think you're going into recession why you would be more recession resistant, not immune, resistant than other industry, other companies. >> well, our cash flow is extremely strong our investment income and the reinvestment rate from portfolio rate is over a 200 basis point difference every 100 basis points creates over a billion dollars of additional income. the basic growth in our business, yes, it can be impacted by recession but i think less so than other industries and when you look at the broad-based resilience of it where 50%, 60% is in the united states the balance is spread around the world. it's a good spread between consumer and commercial. i think that diversification gives a resilience and a predictability to the business >> well, do you think that there

are people that would be saying that all of these insurance companies have too much commercial real estate exposure? >> well, that may be more true of a life insurance company than a property casualty company. our commercial real estate portfolio, for instance, is about 4% of or total invested asset, and it's investment grade, mostly above aa rated so it's de minimis >> all right then take that off the table do you think there are people who just say you know what, there are climate issues in our country that makes it so we can't own insurers because we have a climate problem, we have an ocean problem, we have a problem with a longer period of time where it's just too dangerous to try to ensure things when we have -- we have florida. >> that's the basic business i'm in, is the business of risk taking and you know, unfortunately for the individual, but it's

rational in economic terms pf prices for catastrophe exposure have been rising and so we're getting paid adequately to take the risk and we're taking more risk, which means we'll have maybe more volatility as you said, more cats but in absolute terms on a risk-adjusted basis rewarded for taking that risk >> talk to me about this acquisition of cigna's asia business, why that could be important. is it a needle mover you spent a lot of money >> between that and what we've been doing organically our life business now is about a billion-dollar income, bottom line, business and it's asia-based. it's not like life insurance in the united states. it's more traditional life insurance. and in fact, most of this is accident insurance and supplemental health insurance for the middle income. and as we know, the middle class is a growing class throughout

asia it's for younger people. it's insurance against an accident or if you're in a hospital it's very simpling products, risk-based, much less oriented in savings-based products and it behaves like a property casualty product but a much better stability signature it doesn't have volatility of loss it doesn't have cyclicality to the pricing of the business. it's individually sold and by the way, it's sold through the telephone. it's sold through the internet and it's sold by agents. we have tens of thousands of productsn asia sellinghe >> i think that's terrific one last thing i'm going to ask you because you're xwlglobal you just talked about asia people want to know about our leaders. i want to ask about how we're

doing as a country around the world. how do people perceive us? >> you know, trade used to be a part of our foreign policy we understood it was a very important part of attracting other countries to our values. they want access to our market, to a market-oriented system of doing business, and trade agreements were in fashion and opening markets were in fashion. today america has been losing that leadership and we've been ceding that ground to other countries. we're no longer the largest trading partner of many countries around the world china is and they're promoting their image, and we should be promoting ours at the same time we want these countries to have greater partnership with america and what do they want first? they want economics and they want access. and it's good for the american

people and it's good for american business. >> that's what matters american people. and they do better with commerce we have to have more thoughtful commerce evan greenberg, the chairman and ceo of chubb, this is the only insurer i've ever recommended in 19 years "mad money's" back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, pioneering a new course? cramer drills into the leadership changes at pioneer natural resources. in his post-earnings exclusive next

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last time we got a flood of news from pioneer natural resources that's the big independent oil and gas producer that i own for the charitable trust, first the company reported what i regard as a mixed quarter with better than expected production earnings but worse than expected sales, didn't like that, worse than expected free cash flow. ouch then they updated their capital

return framework raising their base dividend but also changing their variable dividend ps policy rather than returning directly to shareholders they might divert a big chunk of that to buybacks instead pf last but not least pioneer announced long-time ceo scott sheffield would be stepping down at the end of the year to be replaced by the current president and c.o.o. richard daly. i thought the quarter was okay, but the stock got hammered today i think mostly because of the succession announcement. a few weeks ago there were reports that exxon was in early stages of talks to buy pioneer you typically don't do that kind of leadership transition right before selling the company in other words, the stock got hit today because of all the takeover speculation and the speculators threw in the towel so could this be a buying opportunity? let's take a closer look with current ceo scott sheffield. he and his named successor, president and c.o.o. richard daly gentlemen, welcome to "mad money. >> thank you, jim. great to see you as always >> thanks, jim >> how are you good to see you. i'm going to start with you.

i don't want you to -- look, i think you're tremendous. of course i don't want you to retire but why is this -- no offense to mr. daly but why is this a good time to do what you're doing >> yeah, jim first i want to thank you again for doing our 25th anniversary last year. on wall street last august we appreciate it as you know, i'm probably the longest-serving public ceo of any oil and gas company. it's been almost 35 years if you go back to our predecessor so 35 years, almost 71 one of my first jobs when i came back with the board, i told them i'd come back for about three years. i started working on succession day one. and then we had covid. i've accomplished all the goals that i set out for we integrated double point and parsley over the last 18 months. probably have one of the best quarters in the last two years

and i told the board last year i'm focused really on retiring in 2023. rich was ready and so we made the move. and so i'm excited for rich. he's probably -- definitely the best candidate he's the hardest worker in this company. most dedicated employee. and the employees love him >> excellent fair enough. richard, congratulations now, let me ask you. i spent a lot of time this week with tom jordan. felt his stock had gotteen cheap, just decided our primary -- is to buy stock it's the befd bargain there is do you think you changed yours in a true pivot or are you just kind of like well, we're going to do what we want to do, buy back more, maybe get better, bigger base dividend i was a little confused about whether pioneer changed its philosophy toward its stock. >> yeah, jim, i'll take that i think we've really just refined our framework.

we essentially are retaking 25% of our free cash flow and putting it on the balance sheet, increasing financial flexibility, and other 75%, which is still peer leading-s going to be returned to shareholders it will coming in two or three different forms. our base dividend. we announced an increase and flex between variable dividend and op tune evidentic share repurchases. it's just a case of taking what we were doing out of the prior thing -- prior format and doing it on a free cash flow incremental share repurchase now we're just doing it part of the 75%. very minor change to what we've done before. and we did it after discussing with shareholders. >> that sounds right and more clarification for me. i needed that. scott, sometimes i don't like the media. you know me for a long time. i'm not a media guy. i would never print a story that said you're in talks with exxon preliminarily. i would get it from both exxon and you and if both of you said it would be okay by just want to understand, that kind of story is just rumor. they didn't speak to you and you didn't say you were talking to

exxon. >> exactly first of all, we said no comment. and obviously this is after we have one of the best quarters in the company's history like rich was talking about. you know me in regard to my feelings toward shareholders rich is the same way this board will always do the right thing in the best interest of the shareholders. >> richard, i have to tell you my view, and scott knows this, this is the premier independent oil company in the world and there's no way when your stock's at 220, 230, it's worth talking to anybody now, i know that you guys would never do what's wrong for shareholders but can you just explain to me how you feel about the valuation of your company versus your assets and your growth >> yeah, jim, we've got a great asset base as you know we've got over 15,000 high rate of return drilling locations we've got 25,000 total locations. these are high rate of return things that will really allow us

over the next five years you saw in our earnings release today we talked about over the next five years we can return 40 first of our market cap in terms of return of capital frame bourque out of that free cash flow >> i'm glad you mentioned the oil price because scott, you talked to brian sullivan, our mutual friend last month you were talking about it seems to be putting in a bottom in the 70s. can you speak to the demand side the endless supply side. and why you think this is a pretty good level to be buying oil. >> yeah, jim brian's one of the best. we've been waiting on china. china's turned around. we're seeing record demand precovid from china. now all of a sudden we've got this recession i heard your comment about the recession. i believe like you do, i do not think we're in a recession i do not think we're going into recession. so this recent opec-plus cut on the o'pes side is a little more a million barrels a day.

saudi down 9.9 million barrels we should see significant draws in the second half of the year so i really think oil's going to break through this 80, 85 brant. it's been trading there for the last four to five months once it breaks through 85 it's on its way to 90 to 100. i think it will tuchl v touch 100 by the end of the year i'm still optimistic >> if that's the case, would you look at some of your competitors that are smaller when you look around is it better to drill or are there companies that it might be better to buy? >> it's a high bar for pioneer i talked about that inventory we have a long inventory that will last 20-plus years of inventory anything we do is going to be a high bar in terms of acquiring it what we spend most of our time on is one on execution we talked about putting out strong results but then the other thing what we're doing is doing what we've done the last couple years working interest, adding lafrlt

length that really is the highest value thing we can do and we're spending a couple million dollars a year doing that and i think expect us to do that and anything we do on the side would be something that's contiguous and be very creative. >> i'm going to give you the last word, scott when i met you told me one day we the continent could be energy self-sufficient. you said the continent in your lifetime it's happened and you've played a big role in it what do you think your legacy is for our country when it comes to national defense, when it comes to being a more important country than we were because of what you've done and what's happening with energy in our country. >> yeah, jim, that's a great question i've been asked a lot by the media the last 24 hours i would say believe it or not "time" magazine -- the sprayberry field, the most economical oil field in 1952 pioneer and our predecessor led

the effort to take this to the largest oil field. when you look at oil ngos and natural gas we've taken that into the largest oil field and we're supplying low emission barrels. as you remember, i've been on your show talking about emissions. we've led the effort on reducing flaring, reducing co2 and methane emissions in the permian basin. we're providing the world cheap barrels, the largest oil field in the world, it's sweet crude the lowest emissions and it's going to be around for another 50, 60 years >> i'm glad you say that some people thought you knelt that maybe we were at peak i never heard you say that maybe not graeg aowing as fast not peak you've been an inspiration for many years and let me know i have to get behind it. you're dead right. i want to thank scott sheffield the outgoing ceo and rich dealy who is the president and c.o.o.

who will be the incoming ceo gentlemen, thank you so much i'm going to miss you, scott >> thank you, jim. >> thanks, jim >> "mad money's" back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, caterpillar reported an earnings beat and raise but the stock still took a tumble after earnings did the company dig itself into a hole or could it continue to harvest industrial strength returns? cramer lets the cat out of the bag with the ceo, next ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy?

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today's the single busiest day of earnings season yeah, the day when wall street's most likely to get it wrong i think. for example, the way the market

got caterpillar wrong. this morning caterpillar had a blowout quarter posting a monster revenue beat, tremendous $1.11 earnings beat. that's off a $3.80 basis you might expect the stock to -- the stock reversed at one point down 5.6% before erasing most but not all of those losses what is the problem here managements with a little vague about the outlook for it future. probably didn't help we got a slow first quarter gdp print this morning and we keep hearing about new fears about the commercial real estate market. but i think the sellers failed to realize cat's going to make a fortune when the infrastructure kicks in but all i heard was peak orders, peak business and jim be very careful we're going into a slowdown when cat typically does underperform jim umpleby is the chairman and ceo of caterpillar we welcome you back to "mad money. >> jim, it's great to see you

again. >> jim, i'm got to tell you when i saw the quarter i knew things were good and i was thrilled i could not believe how quickly people felt that's the last good quarter. we saw it happen in 2018 people tell me it's just the same thing all over again. i say it's a different cat it's more of a secular growth cat than we've ever seen in my lifetime am i just way out of bounds? >> well, thank you, jim. and i want to efficiency start by thanking our global caterpillar team for an outstanding quarter as you mentioned. sales were up 17%. adjusted profit per share up 17%. $1.8 billion higher than the quarter before and returned a billion dollars to shareholders in terms of dividends and share buybacks but outstanding quarter. and one of the things we did tell our investors today during our earnings call is based on our first quarter results and the healthy demand that we see in most of our end markets we feel even more optimistic that

2022 will be even a better year than we anticipated on the top and bottom line. business is good >> i want to make sure that you did not contrary to a lot of research i read say look, our profit margins are peaking and inventories are not in the shape we'd like, so therefore you've got to understand with weakness in china we don't know how cloudy this future's going to be >> well, i'll make a couple of comments to try to clarify some things you mentioned commercial real estate in the introduction one of the things we told our investors today because so much has been written about that in relation to caterpillar, commercial real estate only represents about 1% of north american construction business for construction industries, which is just one of our three primary segments we got that out there today. and in the past we've talked about the fact that china represents between 5% and 10% of our total sales. we told investors today that this year we expect it to be less than that range

even with china slow, again, we feel very good about the year that we're having. we had an outstanding first quarter. and you know, we can talk about construction, which is certainly important. in the first quarter the construction industry's sales were up 10%. but we didn't get any questions about the fact that resource industries, one of other segments, was up 21% and energy and transportation was up 24% in the quarter. and if you like i can talk about the demand in those end markets as well. >> first of all ux i want to tell our viewers i never in a million years until i met jim would ever used to work secular when it comes to caterpillar it was always the most sink and swim stock and company jim has gone a lot of things in terms of return of capital and because of the way our federal government has staged infrastructure spend it's going to be many, many years before that money's spent i don't want to be a dreamer, jim, do you feel that the cat

you created is not the old cat >> i'm very proud of our global team we are operating the company at a higher level we're producing higher adjusted operating margeins and also higher free cash flow. one of the things we told our investors today is we had in fact released target ranges for both adjusted profit margins and free cash flow and we told our investors we would be in the top half of those ranges for both. we have demonstrated the ability to produce much more consistent free cash flows over time. our range this year, the top half of that 4 1/2 to $8 billion range this year is 6 to 8 billion dollars. since 2017 when we introduced our new strategy, for every year except 2020 we produced between 4 and 6 billion dollars in free cash flow. and even in 2020 when we lost more than 20% of our top line due to a pandemic-induced downturn we still produced $3 billion of free cash flow. so i do believe our team is operating the business in a different way. many leaner, much more fishts.

and it's showing up in our results. >> i'm old enough to remember the '84-86 period where i could not believe how much money you could lose i know what cyclical is and secular. you gave a little bit of information about a trickle of the federal money coming in. but from the context that i have, which is all the gcs and the big engineering construction companies, they have not seen anywhere near what they thought they'd see because it's still tied up in the states. are you seeing what i'm seeing, which is that in 2024 it will actually begin to be the big projects, the ones that need permitting those are not what we have yet >> well, we do believe the infrastructure benefit will play out over time. we are starting to see some benefit already from the states for things that are easy things like road construction, putting more asphalt on roads. those are the things already starting to happen but because of permitting and a whole variety of issues that we're aware of, we believe the

benefits of the infrastructure bills will play out over time. smernl better plants and chip plants have started to be built. others are still on the books. again, we do believe that will play out over a period of time but you know, construction activity just isn't strong in the u.s. middle east, for example-s also quite strong >> the last thing i want to just touch on is dealer inventory there was a lot of confusion on the call about where deal inventories were i thought they were not too hot, not too cold, which is what i want there are a lot of people o'who feel the dealers have way too much inventory and therefore there's going to be discounting. i could do the opposite. you've got to buy american if you've got the money in 2024 and you're going be to be ready with the buy american machinery equipment. true >> for some products in fact, our dealers wish they had a bit more inventory with some products they believe they've had enough what we've said is we expect dealer inventory to end this year about flat with the end of 2022 we expect dealer sales to

customers to be up our sales to be up so we're quite comfortable where we stand there are always puts and takes with dealer inventory and of course they're independent businesses they make their own decisions there. but again, that's not a major concern for us >> good. because to me if the stock was at 300 i could see profit taking but the stock is so far down it was amazing to me the action today. i think it was wrong i want to thank jim umpleby, chairman and ceo of caterpillar, for coming on the show and telling it like it is. because that's what we need. thank you, jim >> thank you, jim. take care. >> "mad money's" back after the br break. >> announcer: cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit it's a fast-fire "lightning round" next.

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it is time it's time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money" buy buy buy -- play until you hear this sound and then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready skee-daddy time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." i'm going to start with mandy in maryland mandy! >> caller: hi, jim how are you? >> i'm good, mandy how are you? >> caller: thank you so much i'm doing okay >> good. >> caller: i love your show, and thank you for taking my call >> thank you >> caller: i have a question about nfe. i bought it at 42. it has come down a lot should i -- >> i like it i just profiled it a couple of days ago it's a great way to bile lng

i think you do some buying, get a better average thank you for calling and making those kind words marianne in new york marianne >> caller: hi, jim i recently bought shares of alu aluminuma primarily because of ownership of grail given -- i wanted to know what you thought. >> the core business is not that good, which is the problem but that said, i think grail's fabulous i would own the stock but understand you're going to have to fight through some headwinds. it may be too difficult. but the core business does have problems let's go to tyler in california. tyler. >> caller: hey, big boo-yah from california how are you doing, jim >> how are you i'm doing good what's going on? >> caller: i'm good. thank you for asking in february i called about this ticker and i was really, really happy to see that you had the ceo on a month later how do you feel about vontier, vnt, going into earnings

>> i talked with jeff markus i didn't even own this in the charitable trust you brought it to our attention. i think it's a huge winner it's a spinoff of another company where the spinoffs tend to do really well. buy half and half, half before, half afterann maryland >> caller: i'm a first-time caller and i've always been following you. >> thank you thank you very much. what's up? >> caller: i'm interested in a company called pinkstone realty trust. pkst i own -- >> this is office properties, real estate investment trusts. i've said stay away. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round"! >> announcer: it's draft day, cramerica. but forget the nfl cramer talks his top picks from the cnbc stock draft and reveals the names that could get you in the end zone

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when i ran my hedge fund i always wanted people to know stocks i tried everything quizzes, storytelling, memorization never worked then i tried fantasy a fantasy portfolio where people would have to defend their picks when they drafted them it works to know the players before you draft them, doesn't it it works to know stocks too.

that's why i absolutely love cnbc's stock draft day today. where we get the stars to pick stocks and explain their choices. i was dazzled. i thought they were amazing. but how are their stock picks? when you pick nvidia first, the other being apple i cannot disagree with wwe superstar charlotte flair. of course the critics say it's too hot, it's going too far, it's too -- whatever but you know what, i've heard the same thing for years to which i say this. to combat that why don't you do what i'm -- write this down. buy nvidia in one fifths, once every two months that allows you to average in at a lower price. maybe not because you can't have generative a.i. without nvidia's graphic cards. and you know meta, alphabet and microsoft are all over this stuff. you can't beat nvidia's dominance but i want you to buy it in stages so it doesn't worry you as much.

second, erica williams, the swimmer, picked amazon given the tremendous quarter they reported after the close that's a brilliant call already. amazon beat expectations which is what investors really wanted for the company after spending more than just a year trying to adjust to a post-pandemic world this once great company's finally i think gotten its act together. next up ndamukong suh played for my eagles so he can do no wrong. united health care is recession proof. i've liked unh ever since 1989 when this health insurer was the biggest position in my ole hedge fund and i think it still has plenty of gas in the tank. everybody's talking about the jets and aaron rodgers i actually kier more about jets and procter & gamble c.j. mosley. in a weaker economy procter's raw costs come down even as they definitely won't pass those savings on to you the consumer do better in a slowdown limited

inflation. finally a contrary pick that i think would be terrific as we get more faith in the financial system and that's charles schwab but we have to get that faith. now let's pick my seattle receiver d.k. metcalf fifth over the stock's been crushed by the poor management of others. silicon valley bank signature, silvergate and now first republic i don't know how they got mixed in with those nerdwell banks but sxwhab's been knockout down even though it had a very good quarter. there's a lost brilliance here people are lining up with the economy with many of these picks and that's a very good way to think about stocks over a one-year time horizon like this draft does which though i like best, i've got to go with nvidia because we're only just discovering what this company really does a year ago everybody thought nvidia just made graphics cards for video games. now it can also be used to mine cryptocurrency it's the engine behind the biggest thing in tech. artificial intelligence. and nvidia's the best way to play a.i

that said the cautious part of me says if there's a recession you should go with the incredibly conservative procter & gamble my charitable trust has it glad i pounded the table to members multiple times in bolden after bolden for the tremendous raern earnings report the first of what i think will be