hoost their humanity on a descent into evil. [beeping] [theme music] good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. >> european equity markets are set to close the week on a mixed note after the dow and s&p 500 enjoyed their best day since januar january. and the new chief for the

bank of japan keeps rates the same as they introduce the loose monetary policy. nat west shares slide despite beat on the profit in the first quarter. cfo katie murray says how the lender is handling stubbornly high inflation. >> it is sticky high we have always demonstrated when rates come through, we expect to see that go to depositors and some to remain on the balance sheet. that level of deposits is important. and amazon shares rally into the close, but slip in extended trade after the company posted earnings beat, but warns of a slowdown in the key cloud business. >> optimize cloud spending in tough economic conditions in the first quarter. we are seeing this continue into the second quarter with april

revenue growth rate about 500 basis points lower than q1 happy friday warm welcome to "street signs. we have fresh data from germany. germany gdp for the first quarter, the adjusted figure, has come in flat zero growth. that is weaker than the growth expected if you are interested in the calendar, that is down a contraction for q1 the german economy, despite positive surprises in the data we have seen, gdp has come in weaker than forecast you have the euro trading lower .30% let's get to annette for analysis on the figures. annette, what should we read

into the figures no growth in germany >> reporter: exactly no growth in germany the deet wtails we are getting mainly on weaker consumption expansion. the statistical office is saying the first quarter private and state consumption was down that is probably the biggest drag on the economic development here in germany. there were positives coming from investments in general from companies and exports. exports are going strong if you look at the outlook, a lot depends on the development in china and u.s these are huge export markets for germany. inside germany, i think we are going to feel the brunt of the high inflation rate going into

the next month when it columbus -- when it comes to the expense of the consumer. what you have seen is like a de-saving is what i'm hearing from the banks people are tapping into savings to shoulder their consumption expense. that has to slow because savings from the covid-19 period has to stop the positive signals from the economists predict we are only seeing the slowing of the economy from the higher interest rates and some in the second half of the year and perhaps even next year some are suggesting that five

quarters after the hiking cycle, the german economy will fall into recession if we are seeing positive signs, we should remember high inflation is eating up how much people can consume and also the higher interest rate will dampen investment for companies >> annette, thank you for that it is notable among the countries reporting today, gdp and germany is standing out as missing versus estimate. i want to take you to lines we are getting from the snb chairman, the swiss central bank the chairman thomas jordan has been saying banking regulation needs review after the credit suisse crash in depth analysis is needed and

measures need to be put in place so liquidity can be provided without the need for swiss emergency law. he says emergency liquidity provided in credit suisse rescue was not a gift this is all coming around the events surround the kwez bailout. we saw a lot of emergency assistance coming in the final hours from snb with the credit lines as well as indemnities from the government for the deal to go ahead. this is the first time since that bailout that snb chairman had the chance to speak talking about why they got involved and how banking regulation needs to be updated in the future one last thing he is saying on swiss inflation. it is higher than desired. leaving that door open for more rate hikes sticking to the hawkish

comments. i want to come back to the data we have italian gdp numbers crossing the wires in contrast to the disappointment from germany, italy's gdp has come in 0.5% quarter on quarter growth. ahead of 0.2% expected year on year also better than expected growth of 1.8% in q1 against the forecast of 1.4% the italian economic picture is a little brighter than forecast in contrast to germany where growth was essentially nowhere to be found. >> interesting, julianna, to put it all together. the preliminary gdp we got this morning, italy and spain numbers better than expected france is coming in line at .2% and germany coming in flat for the quarter. the miss today came from germany as far as macro data is concerned. we are also watching for cpi

data we had regional german print come this morning from the largest communities in germany that number came in slightly weaker than expectations that does bode well for the general print we will get later this afternoon people are watching out to that. in addition, french cpi was higher than expected the spanish cpi was lower. mixed bag when it comes to cpi all of the data and why are we spending so much time into it? it feeds into the ecb decision as we look at the core cpi for the eurozone on may 2nd. in terms of the index, the picture is mixed dax is flat. ftse mib is under performing to the tune of 1% cac 40 is down .40%. then ftse 100 in the uk

down .20%. nat west is one name we are watching despite decent results, the reaction is negative stock down five points as analysts were concerned about the lack of updated guidance a miss on the net interest income another bank to add to the mix in terms of sectors, this is the breakdown. construction and materials at the top up .70%. tends to be a high beat basket media up .60%. banks are lagging today on the down side. that has to be a theme for the week today, we see nat west dragging that index lower as we spoke about. basic resources down 1% as well given the weakness coming through in the commodity space with glen core with the corporate earnings beyond nat west which is down 5.8%, mercedes-benz is do down .60%. we have the interview with the

cfo later on in the show investors pleased with the results coming out there down .50%. you can see it is pretty much a mixed bag. we have pearson in the uk with the stock under pressure recently up 3% after recent earnings. another bank continues to lag in germany down .80%. let's look at european yields i started off talking about the gdp numbers, but cpi mixed bag. investors have taken comfort from the fact the german print was lower than expected. spanish inflation print surprised to the down side fixed income is rallying a couple of basis points lower and the bund which is the bellwether for how people are thinking on fixed income down 2.3%

european markets are opening up after a block wbuster session on wall street all three indices saw gains yesterday. the best day of trade since january. s&p gained 2% after two consecutive losses the dow jones industrial average gained 1.6%. the nasdaq out performed meta shares surging 14% in reaction to the earnings which came through in the evening before as for u.s. futures, will the rally continue let's see. not so much. the dow jones industrial average looking to pull back more than 100 points nasdaq and s&p looking to open lower. amazon reported estimate beat on sales, but shares in amazon are trading lower this morning in pre-market trade over concerns of cloud growth. we will talk about that later in "street signs. >> i'm happy to say eric knnielo

is joining us. i gave an update on the numbers for q1 it seems to me italy and spain is doing well and france is in line with estimates, but germany is behind what people thought it would be doing is germany back to being the sick man of europe >> i don't think so. i think the fundamental problem in europe is that we are weaker than people realize. we had good growth numbers, but not back at the trend line before covid private consumption in europe is 1% below the level before. america is 7.5% ahead. we had a big dip and we are coming back. we have the interesting differences with germany and the peripheral in the opposite way >> why are you definitive if germany is the sick man of europe what gives you confidence the economy actually can be okay in

the coming years >> primarily because the underlining balance sheets are healthy in germany there is no macro balance. you hit the economy with a huge shock and ecb comes on top of it with tightening conditions and financial conditions a lot of people are having two or three-year mortgages rolling over they are looking at doubling the monthly payments they get nervous that said, longer term, germany has to figure out how to make the domestic demand economy rather than export driven. you saw on the earnings numbers. so long as exports are okay and so long as the work looks okay and you allow to export to china and america and the rest of it, it may be okay domestic demand is too weak in germany. it is being hit extra.

>> to what extent can the rehe co -- recovery in china boost the wider eurozone >> you can take it one step further and look at global trade which picked up nicely the export-driven economies, germany benefits there is some of this that we can talk about italy with the fundamental issue and if the picture is sustainable or not. for now, it is the driving force because domestic demand is not there. consumers are hurting. >> what does it mean for the ecb? do you think they are aware of the level of concern you just described? >> yeah. i'm sure they are aware of it. certainly. i don't like the narrative i think the odds are they're wrong. >> the narrative of being hawkish? >> yeah. yeah they are telling us a story that

inflation, yes, there was a big supply shock, but now demand driven up. i don't think so it is -- i don't see the evidence that this is a traditional overheating economy that needs to be slowed down i see it on the country economy that was hit by a big shock that really hurts, but we had big buffers and higher than normal savings ratios that is working through. i think when that sorts through, we will learn six months or 12 months from now that the ecb overtightened. >> you are the outlier with that view many people say core cpi is above 5% it hasn't peaked yet that is why there is focus on the upcoming number. how can you stop hiking interest

rates with core inflation going the wrong way and is more than 3 points away from target? >> freedman had a wonderful quote about the fool and the shell. you walk in and you keep turning on more hot water until it's there and you get burned there is a lack of monetar policy as an economist. >> sounds like something i would do >> as an economist, i'm very worried when the central bank refers to present inflation. there is a lack. i would also say on core numbers, if oil prices go up, the headline goes up after a while, the bus company has to raise fares for the lights and everything. now it looks like something else is happening when it is just the cost that will spill through. >> to build on the andalogy of

the shower, earlier today, we had comments from the bank of japan governor this one line, i think, struck out to me. he said many central banks are struggling to find inflation through one central data such as core and cpi perhaps we are focusing too much on the one point and it takes time to transmit to the broader economy. >> that is right they talk about the number of individual price hikes versus others from a macro point of view, if i'm telling you look at the data and gdp has not reached its trend level. it has in america. not in europe. it has not reached that yet. that means if you are telling me that there is pressure on the economy and too much demand, then somehow you have to argue that potential output has

collapsed. otherwise it doesn't work. i don't see that we have record employment. we have more hours worked in europe than before the crisis. .50% to 1% higher. that means productivity declined dramatically otherwise the logic doesn't hold if productivity declined, why are we seeing profit shares and margins go up? that doesn't make sense. my logic is they got the narrative wrong. it is still a cost story and they may be overkilling it >> what about the fed? are we looking back at the fed in 12 months time and say they overtightened or is the u.s. economy in a stronger position as you initially said? >> they are much stronger. in economic terms, we had a big terms of trade loss in europe because of the commodities america had a small gain because the commodity or energy situation is different

they have much more fiscal stimulus as i said before, private consumption is below 2019 levels america's is 7.5% above. a different story. the ecb says we have a lot of catch up to do catch up to what if you have tightening on the ecb then we have an interesting exchange rate discussion that is the next discussion. the idea we have to do the same when the shock was different both external shock and policy from fiscal is not being considered sufficiently. >> fascinating erik, thank you for the conversation we are lucky enough to get you for two conversations. erik nielsen from unicredit. joumanna announced a monetary policy for the bank of japan. we will discuss more after the break.

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welcome back to the show the bank of japan has announced review of its monetary policy in governor ueda's first meeting. it kept the yield control unchanged, but tweaked forward guidance to keep the rates at current or lower levels. this comes after core inflation in tokyo rose 3.5% in april ahead of expectations. a bit of reaction in the key japanese financial assets. we have the nikkei up 1.4% no surprise there. more dovishness from the bank of japan. dollar/yen up 1.2% market participants says one crowded in trade is the dollar down side on back of the dovish meeting. this is the picture for

asian markets. in addition to the nikkei which is up 1.4%, we are seeing a bounce in the chinese markets. hang seng up .60%. shanghai is up as well broadly risk on with wall street yesterday and in line with some of the earlier price action in the european session today china's largest banks ramped up the yuan with russia in the middle east. that is according to the analysis from the biggest lenders. this as beijing is looking to gain a bigger share of global payments erik nielsen is still with us from unicredit erik, if i look back, china and u.s. relations are nowhere near central stage as the trump era yet, relations with the u.s. and china are no better. how do you think about that relationship between the two

economic super powers and where does it go next? >> i worry a lot i think one of the take aways from the imf meeting two weeks ago is things have never been as tense and as bad you hear washington is president tsai xi will not pick up the phone when president biden calls i was pleased to see janet yellen's speech last week at brookings. that was sort of an olive branch they have to start to talk the risk to the global economy is huge if you get this fragmentation. this fragmentation sounds like a manageable thing we had it in europe for so long. this is really bad if it were to come down to this.

the ultimate risk if you don't talk to each other, there could be a military accident god forbid. >> is there any way to avoid fragmentation? what could bring the two powers together it is hard to see what the off-ramp looks like. >> i think you have to start to talk and use kevin roth's book and idea that you put off-ramps and rail guards or take yellen's story and identify areas with legitimate with natural interest and you can still trade in other areas. that doesn't mean this home sourcing or friend sourcing that is now starting will continue. that's a given how far it has to go is one thing. the end stage before catastrophic issues is

sanctions. that is a bad way to think of the world. >> well, assuming this is just the new normal to use that very often quoted phrase, new normal. increasing fragmentation and slower globalization and more on-shoring of businesses, shouldn't that have a lasting economic impact? >> i thought christine lagarde had a good speech in new york after the imf meetings where she talked about the estimates of what it would do on inflation and global growth. if you look at the models she quoted, i think she picked the least traumatic one. i think it is very difficult to imagine this could at least be worse. depends on the time theframe ano bad it is. you have to have a starting

point and think about high inflation and less growth. >> i think policymakers are on board with that. erik, this also comes at a time where it feels as the world is put into so many different camps. economic camp or political camp and west response to the war in ukraine. a lot of people are talking about the beginning of the end of the usd as the end of currency there have been motions to move away from it bilateral deals with china and trading partners what is your take on what would happen to the u.s. dollar in coming years >> i'm less worried about this than a lot of people when you see it the dollar is a mighty currency. america is a mighty economy in economic terms, a buffer in terms of demand and supply it has been that since the second world war

that doesn't change. if finchina insists on having ao fully convertible currency, they have no chance of becoming the global reserve currency, if you will could that happen 10 or 20 years from now sure i don't see this i see the fragmentation used more likely. i don't't buy the story with beijing with south africa or brazil that doesn't mean they are firmly in that camp. in a world where there is no center of power, but that is chaotic in trade and finance and others, then that is not good. >> definitely an existential question we will ask that a lot in the next few years >> exactly. >> erik, thank you good to chat to you. erik nielsen

you should sign up to his sunday wrap it is a highlight to read. coming up on the show, we will bring you more with the exclusive with the european finance minister as his country faces fresh shelling from russian forces ur own. make it en yourself. with shopify, youen can have everything you need to streamline your shipping, returns, and product storage, so you can focus on growing your business. because when we work together, the future is bright. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions at finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. >> the economy avoids a technical recession. germany gdp flat lines sending bond yields lower. the bank of japan's chief keeps rates on hold at the first meeting. sending the yen lower against the currency peers as the bank announces review of the ultra monetary policy. shares slide on the beat on the first quarter with investors disappointed in the lack of upgrade to the full year revenue guidance for nat west. we outline how the lender is handling stubbornly high inflation. >> the inflation is sticky and

high we have always demonstrated when rates come through, we expect that to go to depositors and some to remain on the balance sheet. that level of deposits is important. russia launches a fresh round of missile strikes across ukraine with kyiv hits for the first time in 51 days. how china can help russia win the war and how to rebuild. >> let's look at business in ukraine. we don't need a fish we need a rope to catch a fish we need the necessary environment in ukraine for business is the next step. little quieter today on earnings we have a few reporting. we will detail those in a

minute first the overview spain and italy are under performing because the gdp first came in stronger than expected italy with surprising growth in the first quarter. ftse mib down 1.1% spanish market down 1.2. the swiss market in the green trading 0.3% higher. the dax in germany down .30% ftse 100 is trading .40% cac 40 pulling back .7.75% nat west talked about profits with 1.8 billion pounds. investors were worried about the health of the british economy and warned higher inflation could dampen consumer spending the cfo says the rate may stay around the current level for the year. >> we are working on the basis

that 4.25 is where we expect it to land for the rest of the year if i look at market implied, and i looked at those last night before p ii left the office, the is inflation being sticky and high what we have demonstrated is when rates come through, we expect to see some of that go to depositors and some to remain on the balance sheet. that level of deposits is important. we are a rate sensitive bank rate hikes are good for us we continue to expect to see that at the moment, the died guidanc 14.8 billion income. the high end of the 14 to 16% guidance is based on the 4.25. >> nat west shares are under heavy selling. the company reported a loss of 26 million euro for the first quarter. that was better than expected.

it gave more detail on the outlook for the year saying it expect ebitda at 1.26 for the year ceo of covestro is up beat on the forecast despite the concerns on the macro economy. >> the numbers for me are significantly better than we expected to give a little bit of flavor, we had revenue of 3.76 billion euro that revenue was driven by low demand in the key industry which is driven by the weak economy. you mentioned with the outlook, we came in at 286 million euro for the first quarter. we see an upward trend that shows two things. number one, the strategy is working and number two, the

short-term measures led to structure costs lower which are paying off in the auto space, mercedes-benz posted a first quarter beat with group earnings at 5.5 billion euro and saales remain strong. the carmaker expect annual returns to come in at higher end of the guidance. cfo says the high-end car market is not dragged into the pricing war for entry level vehicles. >> that happens in the entry segment of the market at the lower end of the segment which we want to differentiate and we don't want to enter into that pricing territory. we see more recently with the impact on the margins and on the growth profit which is significant. if you look at our numbers, we can hold the profit ratio of 26%

in the first quarter that is something we want to do moving forward as we transition into a best world. if you enter into the high level of pricing dynamics which we see in entry, that would be at risk. that's why we stay out of that zone there are important features you need to command in order to allow to do so it is the industrial flexibility to run the ship also at the level of volumes we are doing today. citroen will launch enough suv models targeted in the market which will hit the roads later this year. citroen will reveal in india which is growth outside of

europe charlotte asked how the automaker will stay competitive. >> it is important for the car manufacturer the first issue is to be profitable that enables you to prepare the future and invest for the future especially at the moment where you have changes in the technology and we he aim to have steady policy in terms of pricing and offering cars at the right price. also, what i want to stress is the policy in terms of pricing ease we do not do big auto moves because that could have a detrimental effect the value of the cars we are selling is recognized by the first buyer, but the future

buyers we make some moves on the prices, but there are steady moves. europe is facing an outlook of slow growth and sticky inflation according to the fresh report from the imf which expects a gradual rebound next year forecasting annual growth of 1.4% in advanced european economies. average inflation is expected to fall to 3% which is still above the ecb target let's look at -- let's move on eu finance ministers meet in stockholm today to discuss the bloc's fiscal rules. it will discuss financial aid to ukraine. sylvia joins us with more. you conducted that interview with the head of the imf tell us about the interview and

what to expect from the euro group today. >> reporter: when it came to the imf interview, i'm sure you will appreciate, joumanna, the comments that they are expecting the ecb to increase interest rates all the way until mid 2024 we are still expecting quite a lot of work from the central bank in the eurozone let me focus for a moment on ukraine. this is also a subject among the finance ministers here in sweden they are discussing how to provide financial support to ukraine. i had the chance to speak to the finance minister of ukraine and asked him how he is feeling in the wake of that important call between president volodymyr zelenskyy and chinese leader xi jinping. there was a lot of expectation of that phone call taking place. in the end, ukrainian minister said it was a long conversation, but when i asked him how he is feeling about the outlook of the war now, post that phone call,

he said he is still skeptical over what will happen next he did highlight the importance of the conversation with china >> we understand the importance of china and we understand the importance for us to create our relationship with china and prevent china to support ukrukr russia that is why it is the first step and next step will be to increase operation and restore peace in ukraine of course, it is the most important thing which ukrainians want most. that is why that cooperation is very important for us. before the war, we had a good trade relationship that is why it is important to restore all of our cooperation >> reporter: so, in the macopin of the finance minister, it is

important to have cooperation to win the war against russia when it comes to the financing needs that ukraine needs, the finance minister is here trying to get more support from europe. he told me he is keen to get more private investment in ukraine. for that, it is important to have the conference happening in later june in london let's take a look. >> the question from my colleagues in finance is one to attract business in ukraine. you don't need a fish. we need a rope to catch a fish that's why i believe we create the necessary environment in ukraine for business which is a necessary step for kraine. that is why we have the next conference in london later in june which also attracts a lot of attention specifically to find a way to

restore ukraine's economy and repair our infrastructure and do other stuff which is necessary for ukraine right now. >> reporter: so, in fact, ukraine obtained a loan from the imf for the next four years. the finance minister is looking to attract further private investment to boost the economy once this war is over. >> sylvia, thank you so much for bringing us the coverage we will take a quick break when we come back, we will talk earnings as big tech sends wall street higher. amazon's joutlook still remains cloudy we will discuss big tech earnings next.

welcome back to "soitreet signs. sony says it will decline amid weaker sales the japanese conglomerate says the playstation 5 will perform

well with 6 million units. and intel is plunging 133% and renew dropped 106% the figures were better than expected as with everything, these are all about expectations the ceo patrick gelsinger says the pc market is stablizing. shares of snap and pinterest fell in trade on didisappointin results. snap missed forecasts and daily active users came in lower than expected pinterest shares fell despite beating on the top and bottom lines as they shared disappointing numbers for the second quarter amazon shares turned lower in extended trade amid concerns over the cloud unit despite topping first quarter revenue forecast

shares jumped as high as 12% on the revenue beat of more than $127 billion boosted by 16% increase of sale s of aws arjun is joining us with more. wild price action. swing 12% to now pre-market down >> speaking on monday ahead of this report, it is an interesting time because expectations are low the companies need to meet or beat expectation the key is guidance. that is the theme through all of the tech earnings this week. more for amazon. a beat on revenue. up 9%. aws grew 16% yes, slower than we have seen. in the current environment, that is pretty good it was the comments from the cfoing saying business customers were looking to quote optimize their cloud spend. potentially reduce or belt tighten. that is not good news for amazon

going forward. in april, brgrowth rates were lower than q1. what is interesting through the week is that we heard earnings that have beat expectations for the most part. meta, alphabet and microsoft and amazon here. all struck a note of caution on the macro going forward and the tech sector, with a rally in some names, is not out of the woods yet. expectations are low i think the outlook for the companies still remains a little bit cautious >> i'm surprised to hear amazon is cautious on the cloud unit. a couple days before, microsoft was upbeat it is slow in growth they are not growing as fast as before you are still talking north of 20%. >> yeah. microsoft has been an interesting one. i think even though the cloud space is slowing or businesses are slowing spend on cloud, the giants will benefit.

they have the scale. they have the customer base. you are seeing this in the numbers. microsoft has been particularly aggressive on cloud. it is the number two player globally it has been aggressive in that you heard a lot of talk on the earnings call from microsoft management saying we're bringing in a.i. abilities into cloud we think that is where we get more customers i think microsoft is making a big play here and potentially trying to eat into the share aws is feeling more competition. not just from microsoft, but also from google you saw the alphabet earnings and google cloud was growing fast i think plus 20% they are feeling a little bit more heat from the competition. >> when it comes to the a.i. theme, now we are through the tech majors reporting, who are investors most excited about with a.i.? what is emerging as the stock to play >> without a doubt, microsoft. most analysts are saying

microsoft is ahead of whatever this metaphorical a.i. race is the capabilities with chatgpt and -- integrating a.i. with office 365 or bing or azure cloud products. many are looking at microsoft in particular because of that. >> arjun, thank you. it has been wonderful having you on all week talking about the tech majors. i like forward to the next time you join us on set. let's turn to first republic shares of first republic bank are higher in trade after reports u.s. officials are leading urgent talks to rescue the lenders. efforts to secure a private sector solution have not materialized a story that is continuing to move from twist to turn and we

are trading 10% higher in pre-market trade >> it has been the week for the banking sector a lot of concern about what is happening with first republic, but we had a bunch of european banks report this week for the most part, they were in line or good the reaction has been pretty negative this is how european banks are trading today. you see it is red across the board from deutsche bank which is down .80% they had good results yesterday. bnp and socgen down 2.4. santander is down. nat west is the performer today. they released earnings in line with expectations, but a lot of analysts were concerned about the lack of updated guidance the stock is down 6% in trade today. down 5.9%. one of the major under performers julianna, it ties into what we

were saying with peak earnings with the banks week to date is showing red for the week ftse mib is down 1.5%. all of the rest as well ending the week in negative territory all ending in negative territory. >> sizeable losses for the major indices. here is the u.s. look which is painting a different picture green across the board green nevertheless week to date. nasdaq up 0.6% coming into the session today. obviously, the tech giants, as we discussed, have performed well this week joumanna, i think back to the beginning of the week with our suggestions with arjun and what it takes to move higher. he said all they need do is meet expectation and not only have they do it, but met and beat in most cases >> i wonder juxtaposed with european markets and all indices are negative week to date.

the european strategist on from bnp. he said earnings growth is minus 1% versus minus 5% or 6% on average. it is surprising that european stocks have not done better with the results we have this week. particularly in the banking sector >> that highlights how fragile sentiment is in that space the fact you see sizable moves nat west down 6% it is the other majors as well. >> keep an eye on macro. eurozone gdp data. in a couple minutes, we have the euro wide gdp print for the month of april that is it for the show. i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worldwide exchange" is up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. impressive gains in tech, but the future is painting a different picture this morning. the reason the trifecta of troubles from amazon, pinterest and snap is sending shares lower ahead of the open. call it the end of the era the bank of japan policy decision overnight which could mean the end of ultra low rates and an accommodation. and the esg wave gro