intel rising -- we'll tell you about that report. amazon falling that seemed pretty good. except for the slowdown in aws snap and pinterest plunging. details on all of the earnings straight ahead. more on deck we are expecting quarterly results from chevron and exxonmobil big oil in the next 30 minutes we have a first on cnbc interview with exxon ceo darren woods. first republic bank is looking for a solution to avoid a shutdown it is friday, april 28th, 2023 29th, 30th monday is may? >> yup >> "squawk box" begins right now.

well, good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site from times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin it is friday we're here one more day to get through. let's look at the u.s. equities. check it out dow futures off by 102 points. s&p down 14. nasdaq off 42. this all commees after the dow d s&p coming off the best day since january. dow up 524 points. s&p was up 2%. the nasdaq was the big iwinner it was lifted by a 14% gain by meta after that company came out with strong earnings this morning, a bit of weakness.

amazon sounded great, but when the conference call started, they had concerns with cloud we will talk about that in a minute that is why the futures are down a couple of other names we will talk about treasury yields with the 10-year treasury below 3.5%. 3.473% 2-year treasury above 4% 4.035%. on the squawk planner, we will get personal income and data from march and first quarter employment cost index. numbers are due at 8:30 a.m. we will watch them closely i expect when the fed meets next week, they will be raising rates. we will watch the data and an hard to think there is anything to change that picture we will see. on the earnings front, oil majors are set to report this hour we will hear from chevron and exxonmobil stocks are flat. chevron is exxon is indicated down .70% ahead of the numbers, we will bring you a first on cnbc

interview with ceo darren woods after the numbers hit at 7:30 a.m. >> did we do oil oil is $74 again sdp >> it is down from where it had been. >> we wonder why they cut. >> that is due to kick in next week. >> you can't hold 80 >> concerns about the economy. >> why did the market go up yesterday? it went up because of meta and tech it didn't go down with the growth cut in half in terms of expectations did it go up >> if you look at the gdp numbers, it was better than anticipated. inventories were drawn down. >> i thought that would happen in the second quarter. >> when you build inn convinven. >> if energy is coming down, you would be happy about that. >> except it indicates -- >> i appreciate that

>> everything indicates weaker and the fed doesn't need to do as much which is also good this is bad. a rough quarter for intel. adjusted loss of 4 cents per share. better than the 15 cents loss. the worst loss in company history. the current quarter guidance below expectations on the call, ceo pat gelsinger spoke out and we will have his comments in the next hour. it was more than the expectations issue which had the stock up this morning. >> very low bar. >> low bar >> 64 is the high. that was in july of 2021 it is down 50% from the high amazon shares jumped after

the company reported revenue that beat estimates bolstered by the advertising business the stock reversed course after executives on the call suggested weakness in cloud growth that can continue in the near term joining us is dan flax this is your job you are supposed to know these things you knew there was slowing or that cloud business is slowing a bit. just to put an actual number on it it grew 11% in the first quarter year over year, it had grown 16%. this was the slowest growth since they started telling us about individually aws back in 2015 eight years. this is the slowest growth you still like the stock, dan? >> good morning, joe i do like the stock. i appreciate the slowdown in

amazon web services in the month of april as you point out. i think what is going on here is customers are optimizing spend at aws and microsoft azure and google cloud the trends remain robust long term i say that because if you look at work loads with a.i. and there is a long runway over the next several quarters and years. i think amazon certainly from what customers tell us is well positioned to capitalize on it there is slowdown, but the company is executing well and they will emerge stronger from this period. >> tell me about what we think of with amazon and the business. you were thinking the consumer with some of the macro issues would be reflected in amazon you res -- amazon results were they strong >> parts of europe were better than anticipated

the u.s., i think, is holding up well what is important in the consumer business is as we see with prime, is they are continuing to get back to more one-day and same-day delivery as well the more they do that, the more they drive purchases from customers. on the cost side, they are making progress. i expect we will see significantly more improvement over the balance of the year and into next year they are doing well in the ecommerce business there are cross currents, but they are well positioned >> the big names we have seen. would you buy all of them this week do you like more over others >> we are buyers of amazon at current levels we think durability of the growth is notable at aws and ecommerce. we like the microsoft azure platform is doing well

google is attractive in our view given how search is likely to perform later this year. we continue to own meta. we are watching how they transition through the difficult environment. they are doing a good job. we prefer google for new money in the digital advertising space at current levels. >> you like everything you didn't say one thing you wouldn't buy did you like it? >> you sound grouchy >> no, but did you like it have you been holding these the last two years, dan? >> joe, we have been long-term shareholders in these names. it is driven by innovation and growth these companies have to reinvent themselves if we think back p two decades ago, they are investing in the new business we see that with the cloud business about microsoft has that platform with

azure. if you step back and look at the ability to empower others to build on top of platforms, that is what attracted us to some of the companies and why we think in the case of google and alphabet and amazon. we're buyers today. >> one of the most common predictions was as the fed got less accommodative, multiples would contract in tech those are most susceptible to growth a lot of people were warning about it a year ago. you never lightened up you just waited and bought more when they came down? >> we have a variety of strategies and depending on the strategy, we may be adding or trimming to a given name our focus is trying to find the best companies that we think can grow and deliver value your point on the fed is fair in terms of how it is impacted consumption in areas we are seeing it with companies

that we're discussing. there is a lot of room to cut costs, but what will matter from here is the ability to react sell rate growth this year and later into 2024. that is what will drive shareholder value in the case of amazon and google and microsoft. >> okay, dan did you know monday was may? i guess everybody knows. >> yeah. >> yeah. all right. monday is may. sell in may. go away. that's what they say i don't know i'm rhyming a lot. thank you, dan flax. >> thanks, joe. shares of snap are plunging. earnings of 1 penny per share is beating the estimate of 1 cents loss daily active users came in short of estimates by 1 million users and average revenue per user was

light by a nickel. also shares of pinterest are lower. quarterly results beating estimates on the top and bottom. announcing an advertising partnership with amazon. the revenue guidance missed estimates. the call reporting the company has no acceleration into demand and the advertising market is uncertain. that seemed to spook folks it is interesting to see how meta is winning and amazon is winning. the smaller companies. so size and scale story. >> it is interesting to think about advertising is less profitable for the big companies. sold more, but margin prices on all of those things and somebody we talked to yesterday pointing out that these businesses have

matured. they will no longer keep growing at all costs they have become cyclical. s th-- that's what happened. >> they are the economy. >> kari firestone said that. when we come back, we dig into the plunge of first republic shares. we are wondering what is happening. the options the bank is consid considering to avoid being shutdown the stock is up 10%. that is $6.79. week to date, it is still down 52%. late they are hour, former senator pat toomey will weigh in on the debt ceiling battle in washington you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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welcome back chevron out with earnings. the number is adjusted $33.50 a share. that beats expectations of 31.30 dol a share. the company is talking about how really this is because of

refining margins which increased over that time by the way, the diluted earnings per share were 3.46. that is because of the charge of $130 million related to changes in the energy profit taxes in the uk remember, the uk changed that and it had an impact for what they saw in terms of what the company is pointing out, they say for the first quarter those higher margins were offset by lower upstream realizations. cap x in the first three months of 2023, up 55% from the year ago. primarily because of higher investment in the united states. they say the free cash flow excluding working capital was lower than a year ago because of the higher cap x shareholder distribution is $6.6 billion including dividends of $3.57 billion.

the company now expects to re-purchase.57 billion in the second quarter and board is increasing dividend $1.51 which is payable june 12th it looks like the stock is down 9 cents right now. checking shares of exxonmobil right now you will see that stock was weaker down by 79cents. exxonmobil is expected to hit in the next 15 minutes. we have a first on cnbc in interview ceo with darren woods. shares of first republic down 50% this week after the bank reported total deposits fell 40% in the first quarter. the bank is working on a private sector solution with hopes of avoiding an fdic takeover. joining us for more is larry

mcdonald larry, it is friday. we are talking about a bank with an awful week. the stock is down 50%. the deposits were down when they released earnings on monday. you have to think the situation was worse at the end of the week stock is up 67 cents what do you see with credit swaps and defaults >> the short interest on the stock is high in the 90s from what we hear there is a bit of that short covering which is likely the loan book is $174 billion, becky, versus $1 the billion market cap $1 billion of equity against $174 billion in loans. senior long bonds are trading in the mid-20s. that many comes out to a 17%

yield-to-maturity. the fixed income market is telling you it is all over >> does that mean you anticipate or expect something to happen this weekend a deal whether private or government >> yeah. as we saw in march, these deals were pushed by the white house in some cases and i imagine there is political movement behind the scenes. more importantly, you and i have been talking over the last month or two which is before lehman in those 12 months, there was a tertiary risk. the financials were under performing there was a collection of new century and bear sterns and countrywide. a clear migration. each time there was a federal solution and made a lot of people more comfortable. there was a clear migration of risk today, we are seeing a similar pattern in the markets

>> larry, at that point, as you mentioned, every time the government intervened, it made the government feel more comfortable. i don't know if that is the case this time around or the precedents set to this point like silicon valley bank and signature bank the private capital will wait and see what happens what the government will deal because they cut sweet deals with those two banks? why step in now without guarantees from the government and potential losses they take >> exactly historically what we have seen is the first couple deals are tasty, they tend to deteriorate. then investors get cautious on the buy side because they look at the previous deals and think they may not get the same thing. for viewers, what i find fascinating is the collection between if you look at 2007 and 2008 and now think of the transports this

week which had two days under performing the s&p by nearly 6%. that's the first time since 2008 your bellwether transport. fedex, jb hunt and transportations there. you have capital one and charcharge offs and credit losses are exploding higher year over year and quarter over quarter growth of 7%. you can go anon and on. we had 400 new lows in the nasdaq this week in february, it was 18 cust commercial real estate down 44% year to date. credit default swaps on the major financial institutions deteriorating fast my point is this collection of

things i mentioned happened in 2007 and into 2008 and they are all happening now. >> here is what i don't understand, larry, everybody is focused on first republic as the domino, i hate to say, that may tip over i don't think we're focused enough and maybe i'm wrong on the next series of dominos could be i hate to try to identify the dominos, because there is a self fulf fulfilling prophecy. that is how this has gone. some say it is a game of dominos. in 2008, they called it popcorn. it is some will pop and some aren't how do you see that? if you could, and want to identify the next domino, tell us >> we run a conversation with institutional investors in 20 plus countries behind us

what people look at is u.s. bancorp credit swaps against jpmorgan chase u.s. bancorp is tighter. it shouldn't trade wide of goldman sachs. the u.s. equity is down 35% of the q1 highs this is like very disturbing that looks like the market is focusing on next victims there if you look at commercial real estate the residential real estate is $44 trillion in size commercial real estate is between 16 to 20 trillion in size you have to figure a 10% haircut. you are seeing the stories from san francisco and stories from new york at least 10% haircut on $20

trillion that is $2 trillion of losses inside the insurance companies lincoln financial and credit default swaps. metlife. that is where, i think, people aring looking. >> larry, explain the u.s. bancorp piece of it. you have not seen the deposit outflows like other banks. >> u.s. bancorp was one of the 11 banks proposping up first republic where can you find help if that is the quick turn of strong banks which can change like that >> i'm looking at -- what i see is we run the model if you look at credit default swaps against the banks. all of the banks relative to under performance. u.s. bancorp has a disturbing

trend relative to other banks. professionals behind me or around the world are betting against u.s. bancorp. you have a guest coming on the program three times a week talking about the fed hiking another 50 basis points. this is madness. if you hike another 50, you drain more assets out of the regional banks you can't compete with treasuries >> let me ask. we have a federal reserve meeting next week. the market is betting this is 25 basis points no matter what, we are getting that hike. do you think that is still the case with first republic being taken out this weekend >> that is fascinating pce is surprise to the upside in the first quarter gdp you have the atlanta fed wage

tracker back at the highs. if you are the fed, you are looking at traditional economic data you may hike another 50 basis points in the next meeting then, if you look at the tertiary financials in the united states and credit default swaps on u.s. bancorp and first republic, you will cut rates this is what the fed is up against. it is like, you know, do we fight inflation more or impair more banks or put out a growing fire within the tertiary financial institutions in america in. >> dammed if you do and damned if you don't larry, thank you >> thanks, great to see you. coming up, the report that says egg prices, if i ever go to the island, that's what i want egg prices could drop $1 a dozen down from more than $5 a few months ago details are next. get the best of "squawk pod"

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welcome back exxonmobil just reporting as well coming in with earnings per share on adjusted basis at $2.83. that was better than the $2.59 a share the street was looking for as you might anticipate. exxon just like chevron pointing out higher taxes in the eu or

uk, higher taxes came with a cost identified $200 million of additional costs an sssociated h that the capital exploration was $6.4 billion. that is on track to meet the full year guidance of $23 billion to $25 billion they expect to spend. stock was down before the numbers. it has improved slightly down 37 cents. we will look through this. the first quarter earnings were $11.4 billion. lower liquids and natural gas realization with the absence of favorable mark-to-market impacted the results they say the company remains on track to deliver $9 billion of structure cost savings by the end of 2023 relative to 2019

cash flow from operations at $16.3 billion. free cash flow for the quarter $11.4 billion. we will talk more with the stock down 3 cents darren woods will join us at 7:30 a.m. eastern in the first on cnbc interview. stock was up sharply last year we will talk to him about what he sees coming with the cuts in opec production which is expected to start on monday. we told you about going to break with wholesale egg prices are expected to fall a $1 a dozen. according to firm earn berry that is the lowest level in two years. highs above $5 a dozen over the winter when the egg supply was crimped by the outbreak of bird

flu in the u.s it rebounded since december when the last for cases were detected at commercial farms. eggs interesting over the years the atkins diet. >> eggs were out and then in news of the cholesterol. >> the yellow or yolk. >> egg whites. >> eggs are great. overall. we have to say that. i think we have to say that. then, there is a chicken and egg thing. if you could have chickens and eggs and a couple. >> you get the eggs. >> you get the eggs. >> arbitrage play. >> yes >> can you get the chickens for cheap enough price to get enough eggs >> the scary thing is -- just one more thing when you have a chicaken. you had to go out and catch one

of those and bring it in -- >> that's what we had to do in our family. >> think what you had to do to eat a chicken. >> can i tell you my first job when i was 16? part of what i had to do was chicken cleaning day to tuesday. i had to pluck the feathers off. >> you had to just keep plucking. >> burn marks. the former tesla executive john mcneill we will talk about what's going on behind all this next. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way

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welcome back to """squawk box. tesla under pressure and now concerns that elon musk is too distracted joining us to talk about tesla

and the ev market is jon mcneill. he is a member of gm and lululemon board and former executive of lyft. >> i am lululemon head to toe today. >> i want to make sure >> white shirts? >> yes. >> a lululemon jacket? >> yeah. it's fantastic >> i have these on >> you can talk. >> we'll talk clothing in a second what do you make of the whole idea of the shareholders we had a bunch come on the program now and sign the letter saying, look, you are doing too much it's just too much what do you think >> i don't think he is too distracted on the earnings call, he was answering questions on a deep level. he is involved and he has always

had a lot going on he is incredible at managing his schedule and staying involved on key topics you see it they are still delivering more cars than they ever delivered. anybody in the car business would love a 36 comp on a quarter. he has a lot of margin to play with >> i don't disagree with you let's say he was paying more attention. what would the result be >> what would you do about the general economic environment exactly. because they have a lot of margin, they are using that as a weapon even though they cut prices six times this year, they still delivered more margin in the first quarter than anybody in the industry. >> are you a believer he made a lot of promises to not just the shareholders, but customers who bought the vehicles thinking they are getting autonomous driving and different component

parts that have not come to fruition i think some are upset because they feel they were sold a bill of goods >> he is good as delivering on promises, but not on time. that has to be frustrating for customers. now, you see competition coming both on ev side and on the autonomous vehicle side. i think the feeling is happening with the competition. >> by the end of the year, we will have full autonomous driving. that is where we make it up on the margin he thinks we will take a lower margin today because i will really get margin later. >> right >> i think there are some investors at minimum are saying will you really get margin later? there are all of the other car companies doing evs to take margin and then is this full self driving thing and robo taxis and ways you are capturing

the margin in the future realistic? >> that is what he is asking you to believe can you make this up in the future with software revenue and other revenues that come in off the car? that is what you are asked to believe as an investor. >> where do you land on that >> i think the market is good at speaking on that in the long term, this is a huge market they are a market leader and as an investor, you are investing into a space that could be ten times larger in five years than today. >> as an automobile company or other thing? right now it is still to capture the valuation and even this valuation, you have to believe it is something else >> that's right. they are the valued at 10x the competition. you have to believe that is something else competition is coming with autonomous vehicles. >> you used to work with this guy. you know is there something else? >> there is a lot of capability

to deliver margins off that platform and those cars. gm has a similar sdtrategy. others do, too >> i have a question not just about the distraction piece, but ecosystem that is elon which is to say one of the things you hear about is he has twitter he is talking about generative a.i. he has spacex. there is twitter owned outright. tesla is a public company. the lots of investors in there spacex he does move the engineers around from place to place to help in specific moments a period of time where tesla engineers were showing up at twitter to see what is happening. folks at spacex. the a.i. situation he has a lot of a.i. folks

inside tesla he wants to use in other places how should a shareholder feel about that in the normal context, there would be people who say no that guy works for you over here he does not work for you over here >> it drives, believe it or not, breakthroughs. there are spacex materials earning nears who really transform the way the model y gets produced. you get the breakthroughs. i can understand one side of the story where investors are upset. the other side of the story that doesn't get told is value added to tesla as they come in and help >> final question. would you prefer to invest in tesla or spacex? >> a great question. i think i am personally excited about the ev market because of the market potential and the profit pools in that ginormous

market >> i'll make it complicated. twitter at $20 billion valuation? >> i would take the car company. >> jon, i appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you still ahead on "squawk box" this morning, the wharton school jeremy siegel is talking about the fed meeting. and one week from today, "squawk box" is live from omaha at the berkshire annual meeting. you can submit questions for warren buffett and charlie munger by emailing us. on saturday, cnbc is the only place where you watch live coverage of the all-day event that is known as woodstock for capitalists. stay tuned we'll be right back. first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

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debt ceiling battle in washington you can tch waus any time on the cnbc app

house speaker kevin mccarthy scoring a victory in washington's show down over the debt ceiling with republicans squeezing a bill through the house that would extend the debt limit for a year in return for spending cuts and support for the fossil fuel industry among other things c now the senate is getting ready to take on the fight as the bill heads their way. joining us for more is u.s. senator pat toomey it might be former but i'm sure you're watching closely and still clued in, senator. it's good to have you on. >> good to be with you, joe. >> i don't know how this is

going to play out. we had speaker mccarthy on yesterday. i worry that president biden has the -- at least has the impression that nothing that he does really can stick to him in terms of things, but today there are a couple of editorials and admittedly it's in the "wall street journal," but kimberly says unity is powerful, and some of these guys in the house had never voted in their life for a debt ceiling increase, and to be able to get them to do it, it's the only bill there now that's even around that raises the debt ceiling, so if the brinksman ship continues it's going to be president biden's fault. do you buy that? >> so a couple of things first, let me start with something really important lost in the conversation. your viewers should understand there's pretty much a 0% chance that the united states will fail to make a payment on any of our

debt there's not going to be a default on the debt, even if the debt ceiling is not raised by the x date ongoing tax revenue is about eight times the amount of money needed to service our debt we hear the administration talk about what a calamity it would be if we missed the payment on our debt, which is true. why then would janet yellen choose to miss a payment on the debt if we go past the x date, and there will be vendors who won't get paid on time, it will be a partial government shutdown, which is not ideal, i hope it doesn't happen it's not the same thing. the argument is made by people who want to delegitimize the republican position where we have to begin to address the spending your point is exactly right. kim strassel's point is right. if the house had not been able to pass anything, joe biden's position of refusing to negotiate doesn't seem that unreasonable if your negotiating partner can't tell you what his

position is. that's all changed now kevin mccarthy pulled off something very impressive. early on i didn't think he would be able to, getting virtually every republican on board with a completely reasonable plan to at least address some of the excessive spending i don't think it's tenable for joe biden to continue to say i refuse to have a conversation about the very spending that's driving our deficits i don't think that's tenable so i think the administration will realize that or come to that conclusion, and then they'll go to the table and something will get worked out which will at least begin to address the out of control spending we have been living with. >> i don't know where the intransience comes from. he has people that are advising him, and he also has that part of the party that he has seemed to coddle and appease before with the far left, obviously the progressives but there was another piece i kept bringing up yesterday with speaker mccarthy and senator

cruz that teninger wrote, if donald trump is the nominee, biden basically can do whatever he wants like he did the first two years, afghanistan and the border nothing stuck. it will happen again in 2024 he can do whatever he wants. >> and the race will be all about trump, and that's what democrats want, both to give them a chance for joe biden to get reelected, which i think there's a very high risk of if donald trump is the nominee, but also the down ballot damage that donald trump would inflict on republicans in senate and house races. so, yeah, i understand that. >> so why would president biden even consider negotiating? that's my fear is that he's going to -- you saw yesterday. there was no indication, no movement whatsoever from the press secretary or anyone else >> but as republicans get out across the country and explain

what they're trying to do here, their proposal that, my goodness, we take spending all the way back to where it was, when, 2022, then we let it grow, modestly, and the young abled body people with no dependents who are on welfare, we're going to ask them to work. the individual items in the plan are completely reasonable. >> you were there long enough to see senator van hollen who i like yesterday, oh, man republicans want to follow through on cutting law enforcement in this bill, so they want to defund the police which as we know, republicans are the ones who want to do. they say things -- >> but, joe, you're laughing because it's not believable, right? and the american people will see through this so they're trying to maintain this position that we're just not going to negotiate

by the way, as you know, every budget deal that's been struck in the last 40 years has happened in the context of a debt ceiling increase. joe biden has been involved in those. this is ridiculous this is a moment where something modest could get done. the house has put a completely reasonable proposal on the table. frankly, i would like to see republican senators join them, go on record, make it clear to chuck schumer that he won't get the 60 votes for cloture on a clean debt ceiling increase that does nothing about our spending. that would also help bring those guys to the table. >> you seem like you're really relaxed and in a good place. i don't know why i don't know what changed. >> i know why. senator toomey, thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> okay. coming up, intel ceo pat gelsinger, his comments about the company's quarter, we're going to talk about it right after the break.

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history. however, that stock is higher this morning we'll hear from the ceo pat gelsinger about where the company stands in its turn around plan. exxon mobile, quarterly results are out. the ceo darren woods will be our special guest. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now >> good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc we're live at the market site, becky quick and joe kernen on this friday morning, what a week it has been. might be a weekend, too when you start to think about first republic u.s. equity futures down 138 points, nasdaq looking to open down 38 points, s&p 500 off about 15 points. we've also been talking about treasures all week, but we have been talking about it for years now at this point.

ten-year note, 3.481 two-year over 4. we're at 4.05. let's get to frank holland with a look at the morning market movers. >> we're going to start with chevron, taking a look at chevron shares, actually fractionally lower or flat, beats on the top and bottom line also announcing plans to buy back $4.4 billion worth of shares shares only up about 2% since those opec production cuts back at the start of the quarter, that was supposed to be an inflection point for the entire energy space exxon reporting its energy up a third of a percent after top and bottom line beats. daily production above what the street was looking for, however, u.s. revenues were actually below estimates and the big question for exxon in the space,

the status of the reported bid to buy pioneer natural resources, might be a topic when you talk to ceo darren woods coming up later on "squawk box." we're going to talk about this quarter. amazon this morning moving lower, down almost2% after offering some uncertain guidance for its cloud division, amazon web services, the company's cfo saying growth is moving lower than even what it reported during the quarter also a lack of a big ai headline, possibly weighing on the stock this morning its ecommerce business did beat estimates despite concerns of a slow down in both areas. joe, back to you. >> you've got that right, frank, appreciate it. our next guest says thalt t the market is a yo yo, stuck in a 4% trading range. for more on the markets, the fed, the earnings season, the general so far, i want to bring in jackie kavanaugh, portfolio manager. >> thank you for having me.

>> 4% on the up side, 4% on the downside, that's what we're looking at >> what we have been looking at for the past few months. we pierced down through 39.506 times, we were looking for direction, and there's the lot of disconnects out there you mentioned the smorgasbord of risks, your conversation with senator toomey the debt ceiling does loom as a pending risk the disconnect between when the market says they're going to start cutting and when the fed is saying they're going to start cutting poses a risk, as well as earnings estimates, which we think the back half of '23, earnings estimates are too high. for q4, the market is anticipating 8 1/2% annual growth for q4 earnings and three cuts also in q4. those two things can't intellectually be consistent so we do still see a lot of risks. instead of go away in may, we should have gone away in january. >> the real question is, i think, we're all looking for

direction. your sense, though, of that direction, if we have this conversation, call it christmas time, '23, what does it look like >> we think the rest of the year is going to be very much what you still are seeing we think the disconnect between the fed and the market has to close. we think it's unlikely to close to the market's benefit. we think the debt ceiling really poses a legitimate risk. this is one of the toughest setups we've seen, and i would just remind your viewers, if you go back to the debt ceiling debate in 2011, the market fell 18% in a month when we went through, and that it started from a multiple of 13 1/2 times forward earnings we're at 19 times forward earnings and so the set up is just weak we think it's going to be a lot of this push/pull until we get some real direction. you know, i'm hoping that maybe we'll get something from the fed next week, but hope, you know, hope's not a strategy, and i think that they're really, again, in a tough spot i would say, andrew, at putnam,

it's a great time to be a stock picker this type of up and down volatility gives you opportunities to buy great companies at a discount. >> tell us what you like >> so we really think that schaub is very interesting here. that's a name that's gotten a lot of coverage on your air, you have talked to the ceo a number of times, which has been great we think that was one of the stories that got thrown out, the baby with the bath water they have 86% of their deposits are insured, they have the most insured deposits of almost any bank in the country. they've got a very diverse deposit base, and very conservative balance sheet so while yes, they have some held to maturity marks, we think that's a franchise in terrific shape. they continue to take in assets throughout the entire duration of the svb asset gross accelerated. we think that's a story very misunderstood by the market. >> give us some other names. >> so we like the big banks. we think the big banks are winners here

we particularly like some of the more value oriented banks, citi group or bank of america the challenge we're facing, and you mentioned, andrew, it might be a long weekend with first republic while this environment has been good for the bigs, and they have been relative winners, if you think about deposits and cost of funding and scale, we do have concern tat regulatory reaction to what happened at svb may be an overreaction. we certainly saw some of that. the big banks are in great position, from capital, credit, across the board if you have a regulatory overreaction to what happened, that can be a negative. >> on that front, to me the question is whether you actually think -- i don't know if it's going to be an over reaction or not, but whether you think the models have to change, big banks and small banks, the lesson of $42 billion rushing out of a bank in four hours forces a major shift in how the banks operate, how much capital they

have to hold. >> i do think it will lead to real soul searching on the part of both the regulators and managers the speed of how svb went down, it was 140 billion over 46 hours at the push of a button on the phone. that is unheard of that's a risk that i don't think is incorporated into the regulatory framework or risk management framework yeah, i do think that has to change. >> finally, what do you think of big tech we saw amazon, it delivered in a big way, but, you know, then you have microsoft on one side, you got google, i don't know where you put apple. we'll hear from them next week. >> what we would say here, our view on the big tech is you have to look at meta and microsoft a little bit as idiosyncratic, it was very stock specific wins asia is having really good results on the cloud but broadly speaking you're seeing a broad slow down. what we see as a positive is january the rally was led by lower quality beta post svb,you have had some

rotation where big tech is working and helping to lead the market we think some of the wins you have seen in tech have been very company specific, but the broad backdrop still remains challenging. >> okay. jackie, i want to thank you, appreciate it. >> thank you coming up, intel shares are higher this morning despite the chip maker reporting its largest quarterly loss in company history. john ford caught up with the ceo pat gelsinger last night that stock up by 5 1/4% this morning. before we head to a break, we're going to take a look at the markets overall. dow futures down by 147 points nasdaq indicated off by 37 the s&p down by about 16 "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box," intel posting the largest loss in the company's history, losing $0.04 per share, better than the 15% loss. down 36% year over year. meanwhile, the stock up on the news because of that expectation beat and maybe where this is all headed jon fortt caught up with the company's ceo, and has some of the highlights. >> this is a hard intel quarter to understand. if you arrived in the delorean from 2013 and saw this revenue

decline and the eps loss, you would think this is horrible an important truth here is than intel turn around looks a bit more possible today than it did this time yesterday before that report i spoke, as you said, with intel ceo pat gelsinger after the earnings call. intel continues to under ship pc demand by 20%. meaning for every hundred pcs, intel is shipping 80 into the channel to bring inventories in line he said we are about halfway through his turn around effort, gross margins should generally rise from here, though it will be lumpy from the 38.4% we see today back to the low 60s area in 2026 >> yeah, and i think the way that you could think about our margins over time, it should be a fairly steady rise with lumpiness up and down in a picture that is a general gradual rise you know, the long-term model, you know, that we described is

getting into the high 50s and maybe low 60s at the end of this five-year period and at that point, we've largely finished our five notes in four years. you know, we've done the capacity build out, the shell building to support the foundry business. >> and kwwe're in which year no out of five? >> essentially we're in the middle of that period. this year marks the middle of that period. so we expect '23 and '24 to be depressed. nice improvement in '25 and getting to the model in '26. >> but gelsinger needs the global economy to stay on the rails until the second half for this pace to continue. i asked him about the debt ceiling situation, and chinese approval of intel's tower semiconductor acquisition. you can hear more of my conversation with him on overtime at 4:00, guys. >> we are looking forward to that, are you surprised the stock is moving the way it is this morning

>> i'm not surprised the bet is still against intel being able to execute this turn around, and frankly, the way they're explaining it, they've got these fixed costs of these manufacturing -- chip manufacturing facilities, the fabs that they've got to run margins look pretty bad when they're under shipping pc demand and pc demand has been on the weaker side. you've got the holidays, christmas, et cetera, in the second half of the year. pc demand tends to be stronger they'll be shipping 100 pcs for every 100 pcs of demand, and there's going to be stronger demand in the second half so margins and overall revenues should look better of course we know the macro situation, the uncertainty builds into that he's also saying let's not mess with the debt ceiling if we don't have to. >> jon, appreciate it, thank you very much. coming up, exxon mobil chairman and ceo darren woods is going to join us to talk about

the latest quarter, and much more as we head to break, a look at the leaders and laggards in the dow specifically this morning. "squawk box" will be right back. blood pressure tnch. >> announcer: the first u.s. arbor day was held in what city? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues et used to this retirement thing. ahhh! coach k, there's a goat here. the story of my life. no coach, there is a goat here! whaaa! what's this? a thousand dollar hospital bill? but i have good health insurance! gaaaaaap! did you say 'gap'? he's talking about the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. but with aflac, you can get money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? gaaaap! aflac! gaaaap! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com

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now the answer to the aflac trivia question, the first u.s. arbor day was held in what city? the answer, nebraska city, nebraska in 1872. an estimated 1 million trees were planted in nebraska on that day. every person had to plant -- >> every person had to plant a hundred thousand >> yeah, ten people. >> it's 1872 in nebraska city. >> call warren and ask if he was there. >> it was probably a couple hundred thousand i just read numbers about population in nebraska. >> see if he was there and planted any.

charlie was. colgate-palmolive. better than the $0.70 the street was looking for, revenue of 4.77 billion the company says it sees uncertainty in the global operating environment in the second half of the year but raising the sales growth outlook for the full year, and you figure they have had some price increases across the board, i would think, with their consumer products stuff >> that's certainly what we heard from procter & gamble, they have been able to raise rates and prices and the consumer sticks with them reporting a net loss of $0.26 a share. slower m and a activity resulted in significantly lower revenue in the quarter as it's under management of 232 billion, was 7% higher than at the end of 2022. the company said it plans to cut 10% of its work force, the stock up by about $0.03. crypto exchange coin base sending a fiery response

yesterday to last month's wells notice from the s.e.c. the state saying coin base does not list clear or effect trading in securities, and says the analysis that the s.e.c. staffers did to try to justify the enforcement action, they say quote, appears to rest on super official and incorrect analogies to products and services offered by others. separately, the company's chief legal officer telling cnbc at the time we went public, we had detailed discussions with the s.e.c. about the aspects of our business that are now two years later the subject of the notice. nothing has changed, unquote we asked a spokesperson says the agency does not acknowledge the existence or nonexistence of an investigation unless and until charges are filed. >> this is such an interesting story. just it's been two years, there have been people who have been locked up over that period of time, and that's one thing, but to continue to take fees for it is another, and the company has

come in and said they do that because the legal fees are so high if you're an investor in the middle of it, probably pretty frustrated. >> i do think that the s.e.c., i don't think anything changed in the last two years. >> might be the case. >> the idea that this was sort of approved or tacitly approved. >> it wasn't approved. you could say it was tacitly approved or they suspected they were tacitly approved. >> i think it's very difficult to take a company public, to go through the process. if the s.e.c. had a problem with the fundamental problem with the company, didn't say anything after going through the whole thing, and then decides that the whole business doesn't work legally under their regulatory frame work, and the frame work hasn't changed. >> it was a risk you were taking as an investor and the company because they were doing this >> it's a goal post move, i think. >> i don't think it's a goal post move. it's just the rules were there, and you were trying to move fast. >> they saw it and they have a problem with it better then they should have done a

aspect and could be at $0.44. >> if you're going to get approved first of all, the pother piece f it, and this goes to the credibility of the markets and the s.e.c. >> i'm not defending the s.e.c this has taken a long time. >> if you're an investor in the company, and the company comes public the one thing you should have some semblance of confidence in is that the business unto itself is like what they do for a living, especially because they're an exchange is okay if it's that this is all not okay, then it's unclear why this company is public at all, and you would think the s.e.c. should have blocked it one man's view. >> it's a valid criticism. i'm not trying to say the s.e.c. has done a good job of signaling what's going on. there's a ton of confusion that's come out, but i think you can point the finger at a lot of places congress hasn't ruled on any of this stuff to decide who regulates so much of this stuff

too. >> all true. >> $340 company, 50 now, 54. new overnight, sony reported record annual profit, boosted by its chip division in sales of its flag ship play station 5 we're on 5 so much better than 4. play station 5 gaming console, operating profit came in above the company's own forecast sales guidance for the fiscal year is roughly flat profit guidance looking for a 3% pullback and shares of cloudflare are plunging, the company cut its forecast for the full year saying a lengthening of its sales cycle will weigh on results, and the weaker guidance overshadowed first quarter results that did come in better than expected on bottom line, and we're roughly in line with analysts expectationsfor revenue, cloudflare is an internet services and security company with a market cap at nearly, well, had been $20 billion before what's

happening today. so you can take 26% right off of that, off the top. up next, exxon mobil chairman and ceo darren woods breaks down the company's first quarter results next i don't know that signal what was that, waving to people outside. plus, the wharton school's jeremy siegel on markets as earnings continue. cnbc, what is this. >> it means shut up. how do we show strength and stability? (eagle call) a mountain? a tree weathering a storm? (thunder) lions? nope. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people.

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welcome back, everybody, exxon mobil out with earnings earlier this morning, the oil giant reporting an adjust the $2.83 a share. that was much better than the $2.59 that the street was looking for. that stock after trading lower ahead of the release has now turned up. it's up by about $0.42 joining us is darren woods, exxon mobil's chairman and ceo darren, thank you for being with us this morning. >> thank you, becky, it's good to see you again. >> good to see you, too. we saw very strong numbers coming in with this, even though oil and gas prices have come

down from the record levels we were looking at last year, and that's in large part because of higher margins you want to talk a little bit about what was driving things? >> we're real proud of the results this quarter i think it reflects the hard work of the men and women at exxon mobil, and all the changes we have made over years. record first quarter for us off a record 2022. andreflects, i think, the changes we have made in the organization, the streamlining we have been doing, the focus on generating value all along our value chains and we've cut out over $7 billion of structural costs we've got an investment portfolio that i think leads the industry we're continuing to grow production if you look at the first quarter of last year to the first quarter this year, we've added 300,000 barrels a day of production in total. we've brought on in the first quarter the largest refinery expansion in the last decade in the u.s. and we are bringing on chemical facility plants, chemical plants in the u.s

so i think as you look across the portfolio, a really good mix of advantaged investments and really strong performance by the organization >> in terms of what you've seen in europe, both you and chevron go out of your way to kind of point out the higher taxes coming from europe on the energy section. these are the windfall profit taxes that the uk and other places put in last year. it cost you about $200 million in additional cost is that something that means that you will be less interested in working in those markets or is this just a cost of doing business >> no, i think you touch on a really important point europe and the base case is a challenging market for our industry, and has been for a long time. the few international oil companies have invested in improving our facilities there and to have the hard work and benefits resulting from that work be taxed and taken away from the company i think does put a different perspective on the investment opportunities in

europe unfortunately, there's a bigger issue here in that, you know, the world balances world supplies of both oil and gas are fairly constrained today, and we had some fortunate -- europe's been fortunate with respect to some of the weather and what china demand was doing last year if demand turns around things pick up, i think we're going to see very tight markets we're going to see, i think, higher prices, and unfortunately i think europeans will pay a price for that by discouraging the investment required to bring long-term production on sustainably. >> why do you think we haven't seen higher prices to this point? a lot of people have pointed to everything happening on the production front tightness in places, opec cutting a million barrels a day on monday next week. if you're looking at wti, prices pretty stubbornly below $80. doesn't break out to higher levels this morning, we're looking at 75 >> well, i think, you know,

generally if you want to kind of gauge where prices are going, you've got to gauge where inventories are at we're coming out of a period of a fairly low demand. supply has been consistent, and so you built inventories and that keeps, i think, stability in the marketplace, which frankly, i think is a good thing. i think the industry could be very successful to prices that we see today so we're certainly not in a low period by any stretch of the imagination. the challenge will be as demand grows and going into the summer driving season as people begin to take evacuations and travel and airline passenger miles kick up, i think you're going to see those inventories begin to draw and depending on how robust the economic pictures around the world, and how china comes out of its covid lockdown, the demand will draw inventories and we'll get into a tight position. there's not a lot of leverage to bring on production in the short-term. >> even if the united states

heads into a recession, your call is that we'll see higher energy prices this year in large part because of china and other international growth >> i would say it just comes back to how the demand plays itself out, and i would have -- i have a similar view as i have heard many guests on your show over the last several weeks, and months, it's a fairly mixed picture today. there's a lot of seasonality in our business we're coming out of, you know, kw what has been -- typically a lower demand period where we do maintenance on refineries, the refineries kick back in again. you see a flush of supply, you see margin pressure around this time every year, and the question will be as you come out of that, do you see demand pick up gasoline demand looks healthy right now. i think the airlines are predicting a good travel season. i think that will have a significant impact given the capacity we have in the marketplace today. >> and quarterly net income,

down 40% from the highest levels you were looking at last year. it's something like over the last ten years it's more than doubled the quarterly average over the last decade that's a lot of cash, a lot of money, and you have to figure out what to do with it there's been speculation, a report in the "wall street journal" that suggested you-all were in early talks to pick up pioneer. are you interested in making an acquisition like pioneer >> i'm not going to comment on any specific rumors. i generally discount what i read in the press, at least put a very healthy pinch of salt on it i have said in the past, we are always interested in a value acquisition. i think a lot of the speculation has been based on the fact that we are generating a lot of cash. frankly, cash generation and cash from the balance sheet doesn't change the strategic fit of an acquisition, doesn't change the synergy, doesn't change the value proposition money is not burning a hole in

our pocket this is a commodity business with cycles. we recognize that. we have historically built our balance sheet to make sure we are prepared for the cycles to come we're going to continue to stay focused on that. we're going to look, continue to look for opportunities to find an opportunity where we could acquire somebody that -- what we bring to the equation, what they bring together is more than what either one of us has apart one plus one has to equal three here if we don't find those opportunities, we don't transact we don't buy value this is a value play, not a volume play. a lot of speculation out will about growing the size of our portfolio. that is not a focus for us to really around finding the value, and the final point i would make is maybe a little old school i still believe in the buy low, sell high philosophy, if you look at what we have been doing, we have been aggressively executing our divestment portfolio, pretty good about that, and keeping our eyes open

for what could be an acquisition. we're certainly not in any hurry there. when we find something, it will be something that makes a lot of sense and brings value to our shareholders. >> let me ask you two questions on that point, would a company heavily involved in the permian basin make sense from your portfolio perspective and would a company that's trading maybe at $210 down below, it's $288 all time high also make sense? >> what i would say is what makes sense to us is if we look at the capabilities we have and the technologies that we have, our ability to execute and develop resources and all the things that frankly are delivering the direct results you have seen. if we see an opportunity with the company that doesn't have the same skill set, isn't generating the same amount of value with the resources that they have, there's deal space that gets created there, and we would be interested in looking into that. >> darren, it's still early. we've got the rest of the day.

i think about 9:01, we're going to hear something from the white house about these profits when you and chevron, maybe you should split the days you do it so they don't add those profits together, but are you -- two, three years ago, you didn't expect that every quarter, did you, when times were touch, times were malean it's going to happen today what time are you expecting it. >> good morning, joe, it's good to see you as well i frankly i think if we ran our business based on the political s s signals coming out of washington, we would have a real challenge on our hands here. we're focused on the fundamentals there's mixed messages coming out. on the one hand they don't like the fact we're making money. on the other hand, they keep asks us to increase production when you increase production in a tight market, you make more money. you can't do one without the other, and i think actually the profits that you're seeing

reflect the fact if you go back five, six years when there was all this pressure for companies in our industry to back out and to stop investing, we stayed with it and continued to invest, and so when the markets got tight and the need and the demand was there, we were there and available to answer that call you only do that by staying focused on these fundamentals, we're going to continue ento do that we'll explain how the markets work and the importance of letting companies like ourselves that invest billions of dollars generate a return on those investments. >> yeah, when prices go up or there's gas lines, it's going to be your fault when you do that too. i understand different administrations you do different things under the same administration, you were supposed to end production and spend every dime on production within like 18 months of each other probably not a good idea to go with the political whims >> yeah, i mean i think for us

this is a long-term business, investment cycles are long you got to stay focused on the fundamentals we recognize that we play an important role in economic growth and people's prosperity we recognize the need to reduce submissions. you know, we don't have to choose that's the good news here. there's an "and" equation here, that's our strategy, to do both, continue to provide products and energy people need reliably and reduce emissions and address the concerns of climate change we are demonstrating the ability to do both of those things we have reduced our emissions coming out of the permian, we have reduced routine flaring and growing production in record levels this industry can do both of these things. >> can you do both things as an industry and a company when it comes to saving money for acquisitions but also giving more back to shareholders and capex, i guess that's three things, can you do all three of those? >> you've touched on the three

priorities in our capital allocation first and foremost is finding advantaged investments and developing those this is a depletion business in the oil and gas side, and you're on basically a treadmill every barrel you produce is another barrel you have to replace, and so finding the projects that do cost effectively, have low cost of supplies, our advantage to the rest of the industry is job number one that allows you to generate cash across the cycle, build balance sheets, irrespective of where the commodities go, making sure we can maintain a purpose through the cycles is critical, and obviously as those two foundational elements of our business result in success we want to share that success with our shareholders through distributions, and we have been doing that first quarter $8.1 billion, $3.7 billion in dividends. we expect to buy back about

17 1/2 billion dollars this year and pay $15 billion or so in dividends. so it's i think a fairly balanced approach. >> a lot of cash to go around. it gives you the opportunity to do that. hey, darren, let's talk about other news you put out last night that you are going to be establishing a new global trading division. that's something that exxon what has kind of tiptoed into in the past, thought about doing some of these things, started up and at the time it was seen as a little too risk averse doing those things, and maybe not paying enough, having a compensation structure that wasn't set up the same way as a goldman sachs compensation structure. what's your plan what's different now and why now? >> and i think you've got to put that announcement in the context of the series of announcements we have been making. if you go back in time, we have always traded. i think to be in this business you've got to buy and sell barrels and trade around the

business we have always done that we had a functional organization in the past, different parts of the value chain, and we traded around those silos, those elements, those functional companies to kind of make sure they could achieve their objectives when we reorganized starting in 2018 through 2019 into value chains, there was an opportunity for us to use trading along that value chain, take advantage of the insights and the understanding of the market that we developed along that entire value chain and trade around that as a value lever. and so we started doing that in 2018 so that trading emphasis and development came with the restructuring of the business and our ability to see better along the value chains and the opportunities to trade along that value chain, and we have been growing that ever since then, and so this last step, frankly, is consolidating the growth and the different trading organizations we have had around the company, and consolidating it into one single entity and continuing to grow on that and expand that business

so it's funny to say we're a risk averse company when we invest billions of dollars in exploration and take long-term views on markets and make significant investments across those commodity cycles so i think we're a risk management company >> what was that offshore -- how much -- that was you, wasn't it, darren, down off south america. >> guyana. >> how much did you spend down there? you had to abandon it, right >> in guyana, we have a productive program, bringing on production. >> where's the one you were -- >> russia? >> no, down in south america. >> i'm not sure where you're -- >> maybe it was chevron. i'll look it up. there's risk they're dry holes, right >> there's risk with respect to exploration. there's risk with respect to the timing of the commodity cycle. i mean, we all went through the pandemic we understand, you know, some the implications there

that obviously was an exaggerated commodity cycle. we go through the cycle. you have to have a business robust to those things, and there's a lot of risk associated with doing that. the operations we run have risk and exposure there over the years, we put emphasis on making sure we've got good processes and systems in place to manage those risks and a long-term focus with an eye on the fundamentals to make sure the financial side of the equation, commodity cycles and demand side of the equation, we understand the risk and exposure there. i think we have been fairly successful at that over the years. >> darren, i want to thank you very much for your time today. darren woods is the chairman and ceo of exxon mobil, we appreciate your generosity with your time. >> thank you, becky, nice seeing you. >> andrew, quickly, exxon mobil shares, i think they're trading higher after the earnings came out but it's near an all time high i think the all time high is 119.63 this morning it's at 118 coming up, activision blizzard ready to battle with

regulators, we're going to talk deal making with facebook's former chief privacy officer take a look at futures, s&p 500 off 15

i'm going to try to say it without doing that welcome back to "squawk box," shares of snap are plunging. earnings of a penny a share beat estimates of a $0.01 lost revenue, missed estimates and two key user metrics missed estimates as well. daily active users of 383 million came in short of estimates by a million users and average revenue per user of $2.58 was also light by a nickel >> meantime, pinterest shares are sharply lower this morning quarterly results beating estimates on the top and bottom line the company announcing an advertising partnership with amazon the current quarter revenue guidance missed expectations and in particular, this is what's reflected this morning, on the call, cfo has no visibility into an acceleration in demand and noted that the advertising market continues to be uncertain. stock off about 13% this morning. when we come back, act

vision and microsoft vowing to appeal a decision by uk regulators to block their deal we'll speak to former facebook chief privacy officer and first general counsel chris dkelly right after this break he has dealt with anti-trust lawsuits in his career we'll see what he thinks about this. the top of the hour we'll wrap up what's been a very busy week of earnings with wharton professor jeremy siegel. we'll get his take on what he thinks of the fed next week. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. microsoft president brad smith signed a ten-year agreement. smith noted that the agreement will allow the platform to stream pc games built by x-box and blizzard titles. it's a nice segue because it comes after the u.k. blocking activision he talked about his plan to appeal >> it was so flawed if every way that it actually is going to create a lessening of competition, which is the opposite of what their mission is so we think the appeal should be in and we'll see that and rule in our favor >> for more on what this means

to the ftc, chris kelly founder of kelly investments, facebook' former chief officer let's start with the microsoft activision deal, if you were advising them and you were asked what are our chances on appeal, what would you tell them >> i'd say that they're good but not fantastic. i mean, if you look at facebook's history in the last couple of years they had to deal with an acquisition that was blocked by cma and they weren't able to get through. obviously cma wants to be active in this area the ftc has been active in in a this area. they didn't have the possibility of seeking an injunction here in the u.s. this gives the ftc more time to pursue their claims.

>> what do you make of the idea and there's a whole bunch of folks -- there was an op-ed in the the "new york times" recently -- about this idea that the u.s. regulatory system has either happily outsourced some of the regulatory regime to europe and other regulators outside of the united states or that they're all in cahoots together in a way that they should not be? >> there's certainly some signaling going on that we're, you know, with public statements and with actions and historical actions the u.s. regulators are saying to everybody else it's fine to go ahead and block these things, even if we can't so i think you're seeing more activity from european and from the u.k. regulators. in this case i think that microsoft and blizzard have put out a statement how encouraged

they are but they were saying that about the cma discussions as well in the u.k >> what gives you hope, by the way, for that transaction? you said you think they have a good chance. ubs looked at the big seven and all seven, they did not win. >> yeah, they did not win but i think that going right at a lessening of competition argument is the way to go here and i think that if they can aggressively present that and also, you know, work in the court of public opinion, that they'll have a shot. obviously historically it's not a great proposition. >> two quick questions do you see a policy shift in the u.s. happening at all where there's going to be a backlash to what's happening here, where policy makers will say, you know what, we got to control this thing. if you look at the u.s., we are -- u.s. businesses is such a large part of the market how is it possible that we're going to let the europeans, the

u.k., potentially the chinese decide whether transaction is allowed or not >> i think that there's a -- there's been an aggression on the part of particularly ftc in this case and in saying we're going to look at a very skeptical eye about just about anything in terms of large mergers. and there obviously is move in the congress to try to pass a bill that would even empower them more, which has failed so far. i think that's encouraging on the part of american business that for the most part you want to allow combinations that can increase competition and that allow even large players to compete well against other large players. that's essentially the essence of what microsoft and activision blizzard are going to offer. >> we're going to have to run in a minute there's a whole group of companies on the tarmac saying 2024, maybe the administration

changes, maybe something happens where we'll have an opportunity we don't have today. do you think 2024 is going to be a shift either because biden wins again and shifts his approach and i don'tsee that o if you get a president trump back in there or maybe desantis, the sort of populous right is basically in the same place as some of the progressives on the left around anti-trust >> that's been one of the most fascinating developments to watch over the past few years is that there is this sort of hostility to big business and you see it in desantis's attacks on disney and in a whole bunch of different ways and it's a bit strange to traditional business lawyers seeing this. i think that there is the possibility of a shift with a biden reelection where a lot of the -- what's been perceived as overreach has been shut down in the courts so far. if that continues, i think you may see a real shift in the ftc

and anti-trust >> we very much appreciate your opinion this morning thank you. >> still to come this morning, jeremy siegel will join us with his takes on the markets ahead of next week's fed meeting "squawk box" will be right back. are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

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good morning earnings from big oil. exxon mobil and chevron both meeting the streets. we'll tell you how markets are reacting and consumer and personal spending data we'll bring it to you and the inflation gauge still ahead. and the professor will join us, jeremy siegel, getting us ready for next week's fed meeting. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and becky quick.

as the session went on, expecting a pullback, it didn't happen it kept inching higher today you can see the dow is giving back 130 points the nasdaq is also lower on some concerns i guess about the cloud business at amazon the 2-year is back above 4 got it right by a penny. >> earnings reports this morning, exxon mobil earning an adjusted $2.83 a share, much better than the 2.59 the street was expecting and revenue at 18.56 billion. that stock up by 1.1%. we spoke with the ceo about that quarter just moments ago

>> we've cut out over $7 billion of structural cost we're continuing to grow production first quarter from last year to this year we've ordered 300,000 barrels a day in production total and brought on the largest refinery expansion in the last decade in the u.s. >> exxon talking about darren woods telling us they are looking for acquisition, they'd have to be the right acquisition, wouldn't comment on interest of pioneer. they said they could be in the market if it's the right acquisition. and exxon announcing changes with global energy trading businesses it's going to consolidate those and launch one business together exxon shares are trading near an all-time high, up about 65 cents, the all-time high is just about $119

and chevron also reporting this morning it's coming in with earnings an adjusted 3.55 a share beating pexpectations chevron shares this morning are down by about a dollar >> meantime, i want to turn from big oil to big tech. amazon shares trading lower this morning. the stock did pop after reporting revenues on the call they suggested weakness in cloud growth in the near term. off about 3% intel shares trading higher this morning after the chip making reporting its worst loss in the company's history, an adjusted loss of 4 cents per share but better than the expectations of 15 cents lost revenue, coming in above estimates. let's go over to mike san ttoli

it's been a bumpy road the one-year chart of the s&p 500 hovering below the upper end of that range. when we were at these levels a year ago, the fed funds rate was above 1%, a lot of fed hiking ahead, you had a big downgrade starting in the middle of 2022 and kind of be a absorbed it. a little bit of a different picture. here we're at the upper end of the range. it has not been a very inclusive market in the last several weeks. this now goes back four years. wanted to show that whole period because it really is bumping

along more like the bottom end of this range of the last couple of years in fact, we're not much closer to the all-time high than we are to that 2020 covid crash low in the russell 2000 on the one hand poor breadth in the market, not really supporting small cap liquidity concerns and the rest of it. it also suggests that the market is very well aware of the risk of further slowdowns you can't look s&p 500 and sap the market is oblivious. we mentioned amazon. this stock has traded right in line with the cloud etf over the last two years as opposed to the retail sector. the white line is the s&p retail sector of which amazon is 22% of the weighting. the market is viewing amazon as very much pinned to aws, the

trajectory of that businesses and that has been struggling, even though it has bumped off the bottom >> mike, appreciate it >> i just added exxon and chevron together >> just for fun in. >> just for fun. >> the earnings? >> yeah. >> was it 16 -- >> 18 billion. just putting that out there for certain segments some people go, wow, that's awesome. other people go that is just obscene. 18 billion in a quarter. >> a lot of it was higher refining margins they look at that and they say -- >> but tech -- >> but both are producing more energy in. >> and tech companies make more money than that. markets are bracing -- >> they don't just take stuff out of the ground. innovation and everything. markets are bracing --

>> refining it is not an easy task >> preacher meet choir markets are bracing for the fed policy meeting next week ahead of that we'll get a few more economic points including personal consumption expenditure which will be released at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. our next guest points out the data is backward looking jeremy siegel is professor emeritus at the wharton school of business. whenever you're on, professor, i think what you said last time many times i'm starting to see that those things happen and especially about the economy recently, the fed. you've been outspoken that inflation was probably already in a downward trend and that the economy was already cooling off so they didn't have to do anything before. let me ask you to throw one wrench into that when we had this banking issue in the last month, i've heard people say that the fed reversed months and months of balance

sheet reduction and tightening and basically threw it all back out there just to stem that situation. you've talked about m2 slowing did we relight the monetary fire with the silicon valley banks? does that concern you? >> no that doesn't and by the way, that discount window borrowing, i think over 50% has now been paid back discount window borrowing isn't an m2. last tuesday we got m2 it was another decline we've now had a year of decline. it's the biggest decline in 85 years for that broad money supply data. so i think that's still got to be a concern for the fed now, next week what i'm looking for, i think there's two things i'm looking for. first of all, whether your good friend austin goolsbee is going to descent or not, joe he's talked about keeping rates

the same but i think the rates are definitely going to go up a quarter point. what i'm looking at is the statement that goes with it. i'm looking at is chairman powell going to say it is likely that we pause now and assess what the economy is going to do, or does he really say oh, and there's more work to be done on inflation. and i think the tone on that balance is going to be very critical to how the market is going to move next week. >> it interesting. god, i really hate to say that austin seems really ranld a voi a voice of reason. one and done >> there's not been a dissent for almost a year and a half at the fed, which i found

remarkable during one of the most tumultuous monetary periods in history that you would not have opinions one way or the other. it just like everyone falls in line nodding their head on what the chairman does. i would like to see some independence here. i'm rooting for austin to say, hey, i think we can stop now and not get a quarter point. you know, it's mostly just a statement, hey, i'm not going to go with the crowd 100% of the time the way everyone has for almost all of powell's ten year. >> it's just the non-voting members that say, oh, i would have dissented >> it's easy to say that you don't know whether they would have done that or not. >> but the thing is, jeremy, they even say 25 basis points. we're not really doing it because it going to do anything. it just psychologically we need to let the markets know that we're staying the course and that we're firm in our resolve, as we've said we are going to be

for inflation. but there are effects. if you've got mismatched liabilities and a bunch it have is really long, 25 basis points just adds to your problems, doesn't it in. >> absolutely. and it's going to accelerate leaving the bank now if can you get 5.25 on treasuries, it more reason to leave the bank i think the stories about if they pull out they're going to reignite inflationary expectations and people are going to say we're off to the races. i think that story is really stale right now. when you look at the trends, i think powell worrying about that is, frankly, very outdated >> well, either in spite of the fed or because of the fed, the stock market is at its high range again. you thought there were good entry points for and mike

santoli -- do you expect another higher or are we going down? >> i think they're good. i think we're getting back to beat ratios that are at or above that the guidance hasn't been bad i do recognize that just yesterday amazon reversed a big up saying i do see that slowdown you know, i think, you know, markets if -- i think powell said there's more work to do by the way, i don't think the inflation figures are going toing all that great over the next few days so he's going to have ammunition if he wants to do it. again, i think they're backward looking. nonetheless, if he thinks there may be more to do, i think that's going to discourage the market and probably prevent it if he really says we can pause and look, you know, we might

break that range that mike talked about a few minutes >> very good professor siegel, thanks for the update we'll check back, as we do in maybe a month, whenever. see you. >> when we come back, the debt limit battle on capitol hill the gop bill that passed in the house is not expected to go anywhere in the senate so what does this mean for the current stalemate and the markets? we'll talk to a former chief economist of the ways and means right after this "squawk box" will be right back.

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let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. welcome back to "squawk box. we're down about 118 points this morning, the s&p 500 off about 15 points. perhaps the big story could turn out to be this weekend shares of first republic bank down more than 50% just this week alone after the bank reported total deposits fell by more than 40% in the first quarter. the bank now reportedly working on a private sector solution with hopes of avoiding an fdic takeover that stock at $6.60. i can tell you from my own reporting over the last 24 hours that there's a lot of anxiety coming into this weekend, could

see the possibility of a government intervention in terms of resolution. and house passage of the republican debt ceiling bill has set the stage for a showdown in the senate and the white house joining us with what this means for the markets is done schneider, the deputy head of u.s. policy at piper sandler and a former chief economist at the ways and means committee in congress don, thanks for being here obviously there was some movement this week the republicans did get a bill passed through the house but what happens now where do things stand? >> i think markets should view the percentage of the house bill as a good thing. this is the best way to get to a more orderly resolution of the debt limit impasse the quicker president biden moves off his stance of no debating, the better

there's some talk of voting it down but i think the underlying problem for senate and president biden is a clean debt limit bill can't pass they can't pass that through the senate schumer doesn't even have the support of all of his members. joe manchin is voicing support for the republican bill. there is no viable clean bill. i think the solution is for president biden and mccarthy to start negotiating the house passage to tease that up >> biden and mccarthy have both laid out a bit of inflexionibility, biden just on the face of it saying he doesn't want to negotiate or talk about this at all. what i'm hearing from different reporting is that mccarthy has promised his -- he basically said this is going to be a floor for the negotiations, not a ceiling. that makes it sound as if he doesn't have much room for negotiations either.

>> yeah. i don't think that's how it will end up being i know i've seen some members claim this is a floor but i think that's implausible that's not how negotiations work it's not saying mine is the minimum, you meet somewhere in the middle and i think ultimately mccarthy will have to be flexible about that so i think there is a lot of room to meet in the middle i think there's a lot of room to do that and the goal of this bill is just to force biden to the negotiating table by showing there is no clean path to a debt bill >> if mccarthy does that, there are some fire brands in his caucus that will say you re neged from what you told us and as a result you lose the speakership. >> i think that threat will loom out there, but i think they have to know that something is better than nothing

and i think if we do get in this circumstance, they say we won't accept less. then the notion that social security checks won't go out i think is going to produce a clean bill no matter what. i think that the freedom caucus's slate is that they won't -- i don't think that works for them and you'll add up with some sort of compromised but in the end it will be a mix of republicans and democrats and there will be some modest concessions. >> that's why you have former senators like judd gregg who say they think a technical default is much more likely this time. we've always avoided it in the past what kind of pressure does that put short term and long term on the markets, on the dollar, on

all kinds of other issues? >> yeah, i think an impassion would be very short lived. i think it could be a matter of hours or days without people getting paid so i think the macro economic impact so small but the larger impact would be whether there was some sort of longer term risk premiums. so that's of course a huge concern. so, yeah, i would agree with that for sure. >> the u.s. treasury hasn't told us exactly what the deadline is. do you think we'll get. >> april 18th there was a big gush of revenues that came in on the 25th and there's a debate as

to whether it's in early june or late july. i think treasury should clear that up very soon. that's the next thing that market participants should be looking at everything is to, i think that will be a very compressed timeline for negotiations and maybe it will require a short-term punt of the debt limit. ultimately, that could be i'm not willing to talk about the debt limit, but i will talk about the budget so if this is lined, i think it's easier we're talk about debt limit and or if the deadline to come up with an ideal by they. >> and dan, thank you. former ways and means chief economist under kevin brady and paul ryan. >> thank you so much

i haven't heard back i think he probably thought -- >> they couldn't get a pass? >> 217 and all the usual -- all those other guys had never voted ever for a debt ceiling increws. >> there are a lot of people who didn't ask for things who are mad. >> that's a pretty strident position to stay we default. it's like some movement. >> we will update. >> he has a life he has a le.if he might not get this. ( ♪♪ ) woman: at first, it was just a team. now, i can't imagine my life without them. man: that coach changed our son.

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coming up, economic data that could change the course of today's market action. one of the fed's ilanftion ga gauges it's all coming up in less than three minutes.

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welcome back to "squawk box. we're just seconds away from the march personal income and first quarter employment cost index. rack santelli, the numbers, sir. >> yes, we're anxiously awaiting our first quarter index. these costs have been running on the high side, expecting a number up 1.1, up 1.2% is the index and it equals our third quarter of last year to find a higher one, go to the quarter before that when it was up 1.3 high water mark was 1.4 first quarter of 22. if we look at the personal income numbers hold on, this is a long list of important information here. if we look at the headline

number, it is up 0.3 of 1% that exactly equals what's in the rear view mirror and calls into question the home notion of how many are going to get by with inflationary pressures as we see the income numbers have come down a bit. a recent and when we consider the spending issues, they have definitely moved lower and i see that much of this data hasn't quite populated yet so i will continue to monitor interest rates and just the employment cost index alone has pushed up we're looking at unchanged on the spending, which equals the last month of last year, we were down 0.2 in november

p here now we're getting into what i consider the most important numbers. the deflator if we look at year over year on the deflator, it's 4.2 a lot hotter than expected, well below 5.1 and well below june of '22's high water mark at 7%. now, if you look at the core deflator on a month-oaf-month basis it's up 0.3 and funlly the year over year deflator core, up 4.6, same as expectations, same as the it just got ramped up a bit on a reinvestigation and high water mark there was in february last year at 5.4% as we look at the rest of these numbers, granted, they're still way too high, probably because we spend way too much but we see

interest rates moderating just a bit. and at 3.46, 10-year note yields are down 11 on the week and with that i'll throw it back to the desk >> and steve leiesman is still crunching the numbers as i can see, steve >> andrew, not good is what i'm going to call this the we're looking for one -- i the. what i do want to do is spend a second here and see if any of my charts updated with some things that i know that powell is looking at here and the issue being the year over year, you know, 4.6 did tick down from

4.7, whatever you want to call it and powell that tick down, that's pretty good on the core number there so that's pretty good. then so that's pretty good, too you're down a 3-6-4-2-8. and then i don't have the core services xenergy it's coming down too slowly. is a. is -- >> just one question i know we all think may is baked in the cake, but what happens if first republic goes under this weekend, if there's a bank closure, does that change any of the calculus or what they talk about this week? >> i don't think so, becky

i think that first republic is seen as a first republic problem. i don't think that they're seeing or feeling this is a broader issue. i think they're going to -- my guess would be that first republic can't go on another week the way it's been going, that something will be resolved today. then what eregular have to spend a whole other which they like this weekend i continue to hear there's not going to be a bucket of money from a bank was taken over that seems to be what my sources are selling me i did want to look very quickly what's happening to the outlook for june and that's still a 70% or 68% chance of the fed no change but we've had this sort of slightly rising the fed is

going to have to get some cooperation from these numbers like the e in order for the fed to feel comfortable. undeed and people say the fed's not looking, if and i sao p see continued inflation out there. >> thank you for that. appreciate it. we're going to keep thinking about these numbers and what it means. >> let's talk more about it. let's welcome chief economist

lindsey piegza >> the report reports that the economy remains solid driven by ongoing resilience from the consumer but when we look at inflation, that is still the problem for the fed. we're seeing prices are still very sticky. while they're coming down. it's significantly below what the committee would like to see. from this standpoint vol ter the feds that l eye be on that reand blab it's very likely that the fed will feel pressure to continue raise rates in june and beyond

that the data will it so we go 25 basis points, then maub we go another at that 25 pa to address the core problem with inflation? where is that a couple of 25 basis points increases cure that connect the dots for me. >> we have two sides of inflation. the fed is focused on destroying the demand style all of those additional, raising the cost of cap ap that slows kp. >> as the feds have priced into their base case, that will result in a low sloun.

>> once we rereach that restrictively, to get the demand side of the inflation rng and they keep price pressured elevated at that terminal level for what the market is anticipating >> it's a supply side problem from from from and the wrong way to try to get inflation under the control. >> absolutely. it the demand and the supply side >> if you're rating that's inflationary for the people that are have trnl i guess the fed is not in the business of increasing supply, but trnls

there's more people in the labor force. i can can almost mack an fnk that tlp actions actually can make it worse. >> we also so be razz, it you incentivize markers would come back to the marketplace, and fechlin you're increasing the supply of labor and at the same time, if you're tur it were frm which puts down side fresh on the demand size. you're trying equalize the labor market, which right now has a sizable disconnect between supply and demand. but the supply side of in, if

think about it the pandemic ended how much of this might not be stimulus checks, which wrp also a fruchl and it may not even be anything close to what it cost back in the volcker era. could be a totally different reason of why this is happening and the old, antiquated way of dealing with it might be at best 30% effective in there certainly is a will the of room for airplane rm and allows inflation to become entrenched to becomes in the economy if many and can help stimulate the economy again.

evening. >> and it's not p coming from oil. it's not coming from commodities. where is it coming from? >> trrk and the fed raising rates -- >> how do we solve wave pressure both of which the fed is trying to tackle. eight slow process, a very blustery -- >> that's all it is then, all about wages and accomplish >> the wf which from their per specs is the wage proxy whereas employees are demanding higher wages to kpochl and so on and so on so that is the right frachl and

first and foremost they are looking at those rang pressure rn but average hourly earnings will be a key driver in the fed's decision many and if in fact we do see organic conditions change, tighter credit condition kbrks f we don't get anything like down to or we don't get a real hard landing in your view >> i don't think a hard landing is kwaunltified by a loss of 2 to 4% gdp but certainly not double digit decline >> all right, lindsay. >> she's got all those effect

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legally you're not supposed to be discussing active litigation. i think that's what you're

seeing now is that the cma is being ooups used as a tool by the ftc to create these kind of outcomes and this isn't the way they're supposed to be operating. >> the ftc responding to that interview. a spokesman sending a statement saying "the ftc regularly and lawfully cooperates with international partners and has for decades, practice welcomed by the business community but we never outsourced our authority the fdc absolutely did not collude with the cma or any regulator. independent regulators can simply make their own judgments. >> seems like there's an indication in the quote that they think this is blatantly competitive. >> even if you get past the kma,

you can still learn and i don't know, jim, do you want to comment on that? i am curious what you think is going on in terms of the regulatory sort of universe right now with deals and this deal specifically. >> i think it's very left wing i used to use that term in college. >> but is it or is it populist? i could argue what's going on in florida and disney >> but these people are financial based and these democrats are they're in favor of redistribution. that are and they write these law review away and jim steward was on yesterday he pfrm and put it in. jim said, look, disney initial live had caved and then iger

came in and said, listen, we're not going to take the stuff. i think iger will be proven right. i think that deisn'tis that has reservation now, even for. >> what do you make, tucker na. i'm sorry. >> jim, i didn't get the memo on mentioning or not mentioning anybody's name >> you're not supposed to. >> let mae ask you a different question amazon looked like it blew through the numbers. the stock initially popped on the news yesterday afternoon then, this morning, things have moved around a little bit on to the negative side, because i think of concerns around the cloud business and just how fast that business is going to grow based on some of the comments on the call >> can you call jassy and ask him where the 500 basis points he talked about, the 11% growth is actually the bottom because of chatgpt and a.i.? i think that this is a crisis.

i happen to think it will stop at 10, but people were shocked that april was so bad. but you got the jassy thing going. >> you know i -- look, we had jassy on the program just two weeks ago. i think the thing that he would say is that the benefit of the cloud, but also possibly the challenge of the cloud is that you can scale up and scale down just as quickly and that he thinks it's a long-term relationship, so if some of these guys scale down or don't continue to grow, he's just fine with that, so long as he's able to continue to maintain that relationship >> exactly >> the larger question is whether you get to maintain that relationship insofar as how portable are these relationships? meaning, can you go from aws easily or not to azure or to google or to what have you? that's, to me, the sort of larger question that i think seems still swhomewhat unresolvd >> i'm with jassy.

i am i'm with jassy it have not so much the commoditization of it just the ability to go from one to the other by the end days, or if you were on prem, on premises >> you couldn't move >> it was complicated to move. it was expensive to move >> he said 90% is still on prem. 90%. i thought it was a great call. i thought brian was great. but if you got jassy or -- i'm not sweating the program i let everybody sell it. andrew, let everybody sell it. go ahead get the hell out of it, will you? tucker carlson sorry. >> just answer becky's question about whether it gets commoditized i think all of these services are trying -- >> becky's right >> amazon would tell you that b bedrock is a product that differentiates what they're doing. clearly, microsoft, with chatgpt, on azure, is trying to differentiate what it's doing. google with bard and everything else is trying to differentiate -- >> but andrew, it's very interesting. i got to tell you.

the amazon web services people just believe that microsoft is playing with magic here, that they are not doing the numbers, apples to apples i think amazon's -- they're a little defensive, but i got to tell you, i think these guys are fantastic, and i think that jassy's on his game. we didn't talk about all the rest offense the things they're doing. they're getting rid of the fat that's going to make up for it i like the quarter one line, 500 basis points, no i'm not going there. >> right okay 20 seconds or they're going to kill me. >> so what who? who is going to kill you why, because we're doing tv that people want? come on. >> gelsinger >> it's so down so long it looks up to me, gelsinger. okay >> okay. >> all right >> what's up is down, down is up jim, it's nice to see you. we'll see you next >> what a reason to buy something. it's not so bad. it's not as bad as it used to be sqwkuy that. >> "ua box" coming right back after this. td ameritrade is more than a trading platform.

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♪♪ alex! mateo, hey how's business? great. you know that loan has really worked wonders. that's what u.s. bank is for. and you're growing in california? -yup, socal, norcal... -monterey? -all day. -a branch in ventura? that's for sure-ah. atms in fresno? fres-yes. encinitas? yes, indeed-us. anaheim? big time. more guacamole? i'm on a roll-ay. how about you? i'm just visiting. u.s. bank. ranked #1 in customer satisfaction with retail banking in california by j.d. power. welcome back to "squawk box," investors digging through this big week of earnings reports. joining us right now, brenda angelo from sandhill global

advisors, also a cnbc contributor. what are you expecting to hear from jay powell? >> well, i think it's going to be tricky this time around but i think when we look at the economy overall, we look at earnings, you know, that have largely been better than expected, we still have a lot to get through next week and some big companies like apple, but so far, biewe're looking at a flat quarter for q1, versus what had been anticipated to be a negative 6% growth, but i think j jay powell is going to have a tough time i think we're going to get a 25 basis point rate hike next week, but i think that will be it because we are expecting to see financial conditions tighten further, given what's been going on in theb banking industry, and having an inverted yield curve makes banks lending activity difficult to begin with, and on top of it, with more regulation, higher insurance costs, we think that could slow lending activity as well. >> by the way, did you guys see

this video that's been going around of jay powell that was pranked, apparently? >> i saw him pretending -- >> pranksters trying to pretend they were zelenskyy. in the video, he basically says, i'm going to continue raising rates. that was what -- if you really were looking through the -- between the lines, that was what -- and what might have been the most honest moment insofar as he talked a little bit more directly than he does, i think, in a public setting, because he thinks he's talking to zelenskyy in this case but brenda, you think there's any chance that there isn't a raise? >> i think it's probably unlikely at this point so, i think a raise is going to happen next week, but i think as time goes on, we will discover that some of these other factors, like the banking factors i discussed earlier, are going to weigh on economic growth and effectively do the fed's job for it, whether it overdoes the fed's job for it is

a question that we're all looking to answer here but i think a rate hike is probably likely next week. but i think -- but it will probably be the last one hopefully, we can say by the end of next week, this rate-hiking cycle is over. >> what do you think happens with first republic as we walk into this weekend? thinking about something that may or may not do any work for you. >> that's right. i think we're going to see other institutions come together and help again, but you know, this is just -- it's an unfortunate event, i think, unfortunate event that's happened with first republic, but i don't think the bank is likely to fail, but i do think it's -- it needs another lifeline, and hopefully that will come together by the end of the weekend. >> that stock's up about 6% this morning. brenda, we appreciate it we will see whether a lifeline is on offer and what that lifeline looks like. appreciate it. thanks again >> we'll always have yesterday

the dow was up 500 as for today, though, we are seeing some red, we have had it all morning long, even with a variety of things, results coming and then we had all those economic numbers at 8:30, but that's what you're looking at heading into this weekend. it's -- something's happening in washington too does c-span have that? >> the nerds >> the nerd prom, white house correspondents dinner. we're out of here. i'll see you monday. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange, stocks giving back some of yesterday's rally, the second best day of the year amazon's cloud guidance not helping tech core pce was in line our road map is going to begin with big tech caution, though, amazon saying cloud growth is slowing. intel, also a cautious outlook for enterprise and cloud