reporting earnings you and i will be in washington on wednesday for the big fed decision we'll give you two hours of pre-fed content. >> very excited for that we've got actually a bunch of good guests lined up as well >> at the end of the week, the jobs report. the conference and can the buffett mania out of -- >> get your rest >> cnbc. thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli market heading higher on this final trading day for the month of april the dow looking toward its best monthly gain since january, and the s&p also poised to end the month higher as well as the week while the nasdaq which has been a bright spot for the past week is on track to close down just slightly for april we begin this make or break hour with the fate of first republic. hopes for a deal that could keep

the deal afloat and independent are dimming, but a government-enabled solution of sorts could be taking shape. our own david faber joins us now. david, catch us up on what the government and some of the big banks might be discussing with regard to first republic >> sure, mike. you know, listen it's uncertain as to what the fate is of first republic of course, as we have been saying all week really since the company reported earnings. that said, what we reported earlier this morning was if the main conversation is taking place right now seems to be between a number of banks and the fdic specific to what is the number they would be willing to pay so to speak to take over for lack of a better term, the carcass of first republic that would include the banks being taken into receivership by the fdic essentially the process we saw with both silicon valley bank and signature bank in early march. that seems the most likely scenario at this point

that's something we reported this morning that is why the stock of course, was down as much as 39% right now. it will be down more than that at certain points. the bank has been searching for a private market solution or what some call an open bank solution in which a number of big banks, many of the same ones that contributed $30 billion in deposits back on march 16th would perhaps buy some of its loans and securities from its balance sheets and pay a higher price than the market would be willing to pay, and then the bank would be able to go out and perhaps raise new equity, but as this week has gone along and we have detailed many times, and it doesn't seem to have gotten off the ground in part because the government didn't seem willing to put a really strong hand and arm on many of the banks to say, you must do this again, uncertain of where we head from here, but given my reporting at least, it seems the main conversations are, what would you bid for this thing, and then the question is do we get a receivership deal with some bank on the other ends, owning what is left of first

republic >> the banks that might be submitting a bid for what they would be willing to pay for the remainder of first republic's business, that's with the assumption that as you said, fdic receivership, but they would be able to quantify exactly what that balance sheet they would be taking looks like at this point. the fdic recognizes that they're just going to absorb the on-paper losses and things like that >> that's the way it goes, yeah. the bad assets would be absorbed by the fdic. an assessment of course, would come the way of the banks themselves, a significant one, and then if you were the highest bidder, you would walk away with the customer base, what's left of it, the branches, and although the receivership, you're able to break leases. if you are a bank that's near a first republic branch, you wouldn't have to have that one, but you would get what you want

from it, and of course, that's the question as to what are you willing to pay for it. there still seems to be a perspective that there is a good amount of value there in terms of the customer base, although again, as we've reported, you have had a lot of wealth managers exit the bank in recent days and weeks as their clients spoke up, mike, and said, hey. we're not necessarily comfortable with you being at first republic first republic playing out what's been over a number of weeks here, really more than a number of weeks, six weeks since we had that essential mini crisis as i think we like to call it of silicon valley bank and signature bank >> yeah, march 8th and 9th, and what's interesting is the way that the market over that span of time has been able to essentially get some comfort perhaps that only the banks that were seen to be in big trouble of deposit flight and solvency six or seven weeks ago are the ones that still seem to be in acute trouble at this point. we have been able to maybe get

some reassurance out there, that this is not only not systemic, but does it seem like a handful of isolated cases? >> yeah, and i think that is important to bringing calm, and you can remember back to the days and weeks even that followed silicon valley bank and signature bank, we had a lot of questions as to the health of many of the country's regional banks. we've now seen all of them report earnings and we can quantify the flight, and first republic reported earnings and the flight was significant not something that was a surprise to many who have been following things closely, but nonetheless sort of exacerbated the crisis in many ways that it found itself in here for these six or seven weeks, mike the question though, is from the government perspective again, is i guess politically they don't feel like they have a lot to lose from gletting it go into receivership, and there's not a great concern at this point, and so you more likely go that route

than the rutoute of figuring it out. that seems to be where we are right now. obviously with the caveat being that, you know, as you well know, things are fluid and can always change very quickly. >> for sure. so we will stay on alert over the next few days and see what we've got in anything by monday. david, appreciate that we will stick with the banks here, and we're hearing from the bank policy institute after the fed's report on the svb collapse steve liesman has that >> the bank policy institute which is for the banking industry, hitting back at the fed's report that it does suggest some changes are needed on the regulatory front. bpi saying problems. management and supervision and not regulations and they're disappointed the fed report makes policy recommendations without input from the industry and from congress. it says the fed's call for higher capital requirements is reflexive and largely unexplained in the report, and we just got another note from the financial services forum,

another lobby group saying the assertion in the introduction of the report that the fed should focus on large bank capital requirements is disconnected from the report's conclusion so mike, there's going to be a bit of a -- what do you want to call it? a debate is probably the nice word and maybe a little knockdown dragout over the fallout from svb over what kind of regulatory changes need to be made i think there's an argument to be made that svb was a custom failure in the sense they were a very unique institution when it came to the deposit base, and when it came to the kind of run that they had, and that the failures on the part of supervisors were also custom, and had the regulators and supervisors found this problem, we wouldn't be here talking about this, and wouldn't need the regulations. mike >> perhaps predictable we would have this fight, but also interesting. we'll see how it plays out steve, thanks a lot. week want to bring in lauren

goodwin and stephanie ling thank you for being here on a friday let's build into this bank situation, the stress we have been experiencing and even though the market has tried to create this firewall around a couple of banks and what it meant for the bull case, the bear case for stocks and also the risk of recession here does it allow the market to have some relief, or not so much? >> the bear case is bolstered by failures because of credit conditions the idea is tightening credit conditions will work their way through the economy and make recession come a bit quicker we'll largely see that through employment actually. tightening credit conditions are closely tied to how companies are able to keep people, especially in small and medium-sized companies that may be losing their first lines of capital from the banking sect. er that's where that lies, and it's interesting that the fed has not been convinced by that line of

thinking when it comes to signaling whether, especially when it comes in this march meeting we last saw, slowing their hikes or pausing earlier they said, look. we're not seeing evidence of that, and the fact we're seeing employment costs still higher today suggests the idea those tightening credit conditions cite that path is not happening yet. >> steph, for sure, powell in march at the last meeting said, we're not seeing the evidence yet. we don't know how to quantify, but he said we did consider pausing, and i wonder if right now we can be comfortable that another quarter point hike next week, and they're data-dependent and they take it as a pause and we're left with an economy that at least based on the data this week, seems to be holding up okay. >> it's been amazing this week, right? in the face of all of these concerns, not only is it the bank failures and tighter credit

and lending standards, but the debt ceiling discussion or argument or lack of one. so in the face of all of this, and in the face of the fed being very hawkish, you actually did get good data. you got better gdp, not on the surface, but underneath. personal consumption, up 3.7%. we know that's 70% of the u.s. economy. that's good. this is a far cry from the 370,000 weekly initial claims during a recession they're at 230,000 this past week, so really good on the job front, and of course, inflation is coming down, mike, as you know it's definitely coming down from the peak, but it is still elevated and that's the reason the fed is going to go next week, and they could go the following month in june. we'll have to wait and see, but the bottom line is we're on the eighth or the ninth inning of the fed hikes. they're going to keep rates high for a long period of time, but if they're at the eighth or the ninth inning and to your point, if they're a little bit more dovish in their language, i

think the market can go own higher i think the market again, has been so resilient in the face of all of this negativity that's a good sign it's led to much better than expected or better than feared earnings as a result >> yeah, and lauren, this whole debate really illustrates why the market is caught in between because everything we're saying, it looks pretty good right now, can be answered with, yes. lagging indicators, it often looks this way as you head into a downturn, and the market has absolutely been resilient, but it's also been a little bit of a less clear picture underneath when you have just the big growth stocks doing most of the work. >> that's right, and that's something that i came out on this program and said last week, i did not expect to see this week that yes. likely the tech stocks that released this week would do well, but i didn't expect the valuations to move quite as high as they did. what that does, and the picture that paints, the market is paint a story of disinflation. recession may be on its way, but it's not here yet and we're

probably more excited on aggregate about that lack of threat from the fed, at least to hike more than they've said for the last nine months they're going to hike, but i have to agree with stephanie that probably the risk to the market now is that we see more hikes rather than less, and so from an investment perspective, we need to be balanced as invest oinvesd be ready, and the rate volatility isn't behind us. >> what does that mean in terms of an investor right now with where stocks and bonds are valuing? >> i expect that while some areas of the equity markets like growth eck quity that you may b paying for growth that may not come in the next six or nine months there are plenty of opportunities and, in fact, one of the conversations i'm having all the time with investors in the marketplace is actually how to put cash to work. it took awhile for investors to warm up to the idea that rates

were higher and they could make money, and it really accelerated, and now with recession potentially being another three, six months away, investors are saying, what can i do with this i frankly see plenty of opportunities and there's opportunities in what i call new, defensive equities. that's digital infrastructure, green and brown energy infrastructure there's also opportunities to take equity-like risk in bonds, be able to just acknowledge that you can -- you can take eck equity-like risk in the meantime. >> people are rushing to bond this year and did not get immediate gratification with the recession starting that moment that's the way psychology in the markets work, and steph, you did mention earnings this week just some numbers coming out in the last little while in terms of the companies that track the estimates are showing that for 2023 over the course of april, the consensus for the s&p has actually ticked slightly higher.

so in other words, the back end of this year is not looking like it's necessarily going to be that cliff, at least based on what we're seeing and hearing from companies this week, and yet the market didn't trade really all that well off of earnings outside of a handful of huge names s so i wonder, we're going to be stuck with this debate for awhile >> yeah, i think we are, and i think we're in a trading range, but i think to the extent that companies can produce good numbers and by the way, decent guidance it's not terrific guidance, but decent guidance, i think that's a sigh of relief, and i think those that are calling for sub-200 earnings this year for the s&p 500, i think it's really just way too negative, and i look at margins and margins have actually held up remarkably well, mike i look at inflation. inflation has come down. it's still high, but it's helping -- it's hurting a little bit less this year we look at supply chains that are easing and the weak dollar that helps multinationals and then you listen to what the companies are saying about

international, and the growth is a little bit better. china just reopened. they just went maskless last month, and that's going to help, and we are hearing from companies talking about, they are starting to see momentum being built in china japan, a little bit better growth on gdp, and i know we're going to slow. i got it, but at least you have some pockets in the world that may be able to help offset some of the slowdown that is about to come right now, and so there are plenty of places within sectors that are not trading at the s&p multiple that are trading much less and highlight energy and materials and even some health care names as well there is opportunity to be had >> with some of the cyclical parts, would they be candidates for cycling some of that cash into the markets that is where you have seen at least in the last couple of months, discount development. >> i think that's absolutely the case where cyclicals are concerned, quality is so important because

we do expect that while this recession has been slow to roll its way toward us, it's still rolling its way here >> yeah. >> so investors have to be very careful to look for -- again, some of the things that stephanie said relating to strong revenue, ability to make up for some of the squeezing margins we're seeing across the board, and in many cases, generate consistent cash flow. i think the reality for many investors is that holding equity with -- in comparison to bonds or other areas of the market that are yielding actively in the marketplace, your cost benefit analysis has changed. >> for sure. we'll see how that goes. lauren, steph, great to talk to you. thanks very much, and have a good weekend let's get to our twitter question of the day. we want to know with most of the tech having reported this week, are you more bullish on the market head to our twitter to vote.

we'll share the results later in this hour. we're just getting started here on "closing bell. up next, weighing big market worries why one analyst says commercial real estate is not the next shoe to drop. he will make his case next. and trading the chips. hotel popping with numbers from amd and nxp still on deck. we'll hear from an analyst with just to watch. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. (music) up top by the hogan ♪♪ woah (sfx) car racing -final boarding flight to wait... is that a phone? look at the performance! the graphics. that thing's a gaming machine. a new challenger! faker! that man's a gaming legend.

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with the s&p, about three-quarters of a percent on the day. let's get a check on the top stocks to watch. courtney reagan is here with that hey, court. >> good to see you well, the cruise lines are moving higher today. as jpmorgan initiates coverage, royal caribbean gets a rating with confidence, and the company's recovery plan. carnival getting a recovery plan hasborough is hiring again today as they upgrade the stock to neutral and target $60 a share from $42 shares are up which would be hasbro's best weekly gain since march, 2020. remember that, mike? >> that was a bpretty good mont to be compared to. the increase in office vacancies and interest rates is raising concerns about the health of commercial real estate as the ongoing banking turmoil weighs

on investor sentiment, but our next guest believes this is not the next shoe to drop. joining us is the global chairman of research at berkeleys. thank you so much. >> sure. >> you're laying this out for us because there has been this shadow over the banking system for some time. maybe a slow-moving crisis, but considered to be a crisis all the same how are you reading it >> so there's two points to make right at the start the first is it's not all commercial real estate that is the problem. it's office commercial real estate which is maybe 15% to 20% of the mix, and the second is even there, leases are staggered. they don't all roll over at once so there's time for this -- it is a problem, don't get me wrong. office rvan -- vacancy rates are very low -- or high, but this

won't happen all at once >> is there a sense that because we have the credit attraction among smaller banks and lower risk appetites, they will be willing twork with the real estate owners and developers it seems there may be a snowballing crisis is there anything in that process you are concerned about in terms of it becoming less than orderly >> not at an aggregated economy-wide level here are some of the numbers, okay there's about $550 billion of office commercial real estate loans we think on bank balance sheets that sounds like a lot, but keep in mind, maybe about 8% to 10% of these loans roll over every year, and you're looking at a banking system with over a trillion dollars of equity capital. it's very hard for this to be a problem. this is not sub prime. s it is the fact we had $2.5 trillion of this. remember this? it was leveled on top. that's missing this time around. >> that is certainly some

comfort there. if this is the case, presumably the market has perhaps overreacted in some pockets to what's perceived as a bigger threat are there areas of the markets, equiti equities, bonds, anything that has overshot what is likely to be the reality in terms of the pain here? >> not equities. they've done a good job generally ignoring this. if you look at even this week, right? the equity market decided that first republic, there were issues worth ignoring. what that means for the broader banking sector, and i think that's good. where there is a problem in my mind is the bond market which seems too eager to price in fed cuts too soon. the fact of the matter is you're going to get a contract from the smaller banks in the u.s. economy, but we are a very bank-light economy the fed has not hiked business bonds in years for their health. they want some things to break they don't mind some jobs being lost, and if it comes from small

businesses as harsh as that sounds, that's something the fed is not going to be jumping to save. >> interesting perspective, and certainly relevant as we prepare for next week's fed decision and what comes after ajay, thank you so much. appreciate the time today. up next, the big recession debate and with the fed front and center next week, investors are left wondering what could be next for the economy we'll discuss. and a special programming note tune in next saturday, may 6th to the hathaway annual shareholder meeting on cnbc and cnbc.com becky quick and i will be live in omaha starting at0: a 100.m. eastern time "closing bell" will be right back os sed my mind. what if we live to like 100? that's 35 years of being retired. i don't want to outlive our money. and i have been eating all these stupid chia seeds! i could totally live to be 100! why do i keep taking such good care of my- since we started working with empower, we're able to get all our financial questions answered, so we don't have to worry. so you never- no. never. join 17 million people and take control

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that's 1-800-376-4376. we're counting down to next wednesday's fed decision the stocks heading for a mostly

positive monthly close how will the critical rate decision impact the market and recession odds let's bring in the chief u.s. strategist at ned davis research, and the renaissance macro research chairman. good to see you both jeff, just in terms of the market setup here, and as it relates to expectations for where we are in this economic cycle, a lot of credit being given to the market for kind of hanging in there, and a lot of criticism of the market for how it's doing it, which is with only a handful of stocks what's your read on that >> i think breadth is being overplayed that can catch up very, very quickly. it was good until silicon valley, and it fell apart. that's not a new low, but technicality is pretty close to doing so we've seen a small cap, and it's what you can look at from a differential there's about twice the waiting and small cap names and large cap names for banks. so, you know, i just got back

from london last night exactualy and it was certainly a topic and an area of concern with clients, but i think the other thing to just keep in mind is how much better the global indices look than the u.s. one. if you gave me a stronger global indices or vicar is have a, i would take the former. i think the breadth we're seeing globally is more important about the economic outlook and the health of the market than what we're seeing as being character i ized around the banking system, but pretty contained. >> that's a good point, and ed, i know you have been doing a lot of work on what is admittedly a big u.s. picture of where we are in terms of this market. being in the market and still kind of stuck in the phase and conflicting evidence, where do you come down?

>> we're most likely in a bull market even though we haven't made a technical definition of one, and what we need to think about it is in the early phases of recovery, say around year two or three, it's not uncommon for there to be fears of a double dip because the u.s. economy is so large, so developed you're not going to maintain the growth rates you get coming out of the recession there's fears of a double dip, causing the markets to pull back because those are very rare, only one in the last 60 years. that was where that tends to be cut short, and that's pretty much what happened in 2022 we had a growth scare, and a bear market, but it fit that nonrecession bear scenario, and what we could see from here, you know, is a recovery that could last at least until, you know, later on in the year, and then we'll have to see if the recession risks really come to fruition and actually, we get the recession going into next

year >> and ed, i know you're alsoed on some of the oddities or distinguishing characteristics of this cycle when it comes to the interplay between the markets, the economy, fed and things like that, and basically if we don't get a recession in the next month or two, it would perhaps be the longest time between an s&p 500 peak, and the onset recession that we've ever experienced, right >> yeah. so that peaked about six months before the start of a recession. there's been variation around that, but the longest we've gone is about 17 months, and so if we peaked in january of 2022, once we get to midyear, we would have blown past that record, and what happened as the market went down, anticipation of a recession that just hasn't happened yet, and we have this window because of the resilient market, we got ahead of

ourselves of anticipating the recession last year that hasn't happened. >> and jeff, i guess whether or not we should be broadly concerned about the fact that it has been some poor breadth in this market, i guess it should instruct us how to play it do you look for laggards or is it essentially about being selective about what's outperforming? >> you know, i mean, we haven't seen the extreme yet to get us to sort of flip, so we're sort of momentum players in that -- in that realm, but i do think things like semiconductors is an e example. we're seeing uptrends there, and emergence out of health care equipment names, absolutely at, you know, this part of the cycle, that's something that can work as they tend to have a little bit more cyclicality with health care, and we tend to stick with the winners particularly in an early cycle i would agree with ed we're in a bull market. it's not a table-pounding bull market i think one of the ironies here is that the bears will get

emboldened by a recession, and even though we don't see that happening here, let's say that we're wrong, and we see that comes to fruition sometime late in the summer. what's interesting is one of the things keeping a lid in our viewing way on the s&p is the relative -- the relative attractiveness of what we're seeing in the bond market, and so a recession would push yields down which therefore could actually give a bit of equities as that starts to make equities look more attractive. it might end up being bullish for them versus bearish. we'll see. >> that would be quite a twist, and ed, i guess if you have this motion that, in fact, we could just be able to sidestep a recession for awhile, almost no matter what comes the next few months, what do you say to those folks that say, but the way the yield curve is set up, what what leading indicators are doing, all those things that seem to be lending some pretty high conviction to those who feel as

if kind of sagging into a recession is inevitable? >> yeah. so i would say two things. one is the lead time on a lot of those indicators varies widely it doesn't mean they're, quote, unquote, wrong it just means that maybe they're earlier than normal, and then the second thing is that, you know, the u.s. consumer has been pretty resilient if you get outside, maybe the lowest 20% of income households, there still is that savings glut from covid it will run out over the next few quarters, but that's really what's been happelping people. we talk about this anecdotally, and friends ask me questions, are we worried about the market and the economy? i ask them what they're doing this summer, and they're taking a big vacation people are still spending and the economy is two-thirds consumer spending and that matters. >> spending and savings seem to support that, that there's perhaps for the moment anyway,

enough to go around. ed, jeff, i really appreciate the discussion thanks very much >> thanks, mike. all right. up next, the key stocks to watch as we finish out the trading week plus, bracing for a retest could stocks see october lows again? that would make those bull market calls incorrect why one money manager thinks it could happen sooner rather than later. that's ahead "closing bell" will be right back

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just about 20 minutes until the closing bell here's where we stand. holding onto most of the gapes of the day the s&p 500 up up a little more than a half of a percent the nasdaq lagging a little bit. let's get back to courtney rag b for a look at the key socks to watch. >> got a couple more for you >> colgate outperforming and looking at the prices through the quarter which is something we've seen from coke and kimberly clark now we'll turn to cloud fare which is getting hammered. as a number of analysts cut their prices on the stock, it's heading for its worst day on record the ceo had sharp comments about the macroeconomic environment. back over to. >> you a rough one courtney, thanks so much last chance to weigh in on

our twitter question we asked with most of the companies reporting this week, are you more bullish on the market head to @cnbcclosingbell a quick programming note don't miss "halftime report" monday we'll be back in two

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the graphics. that thing's a gaming machine. a new challenger! faker! that man's a gaming legend. everyone fasten your seatbelts. and here we goooo! ♪♪ . let's get the results of our twitter question we asked with most mega-cap tech report earnings this week, are you more bullish on the market 53% of you said yes. the reporting next week, and the key themes and metrics to watch and what's at stick for the

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power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. we're now in the closing bell market zone we're sharing an outlook we have what's next for intel on its latest quarter, and apple's earnings out next week welcome to you,greg. we have a decent kind of save for the week a bit of a shakeout, middle of the week there with a large gross stocks have come through, and i guess bigger picture, you

know, we're looking at maybe the final federate hike next week, economic data holding together okay the recession isn't arriving on time what's not to like >> so there are a number of things not to like, mike it's true. this has been a great week in cons consensus, and it's reacted accordingly. we looked at the back half of this year, and it used to be they were expect a 1.6% and an 8.5% growth in the quarter, and that has actually risen. consensus is looking for 1.7% and 8.8% which is the wrong direction to go in consensus has been woefully behind with just about every quarter except maybe this second quarter we're in now even this first quarter, mike, consensus was lack when the quarter started and it looks to be correct this week not j withstanding what's not to like this reminds me of august, 2022,

mike when we have this sentiment -- a very similar sentiment and emotion-driven rally that then collapsed on the back of the thick coming out vo if ciferous and after beating that, we then reached the october lows i think a similar situation will play out here, not only with the debt ceiling, but when you look at consensus in 2024, it's at a whopping $245 of earnings. how we get from this year's 206 to 245 next year is beyond me. how we get to 10% in the back quarter of this is beyond me, and so i think dconsensus is off not only in tech, but in financials the large money is in a different situation than the regionals which have more payment come through cre, and then in tech, we're seeing the nasdaq dramatically outperformed as well as the russell 2,000 growth >> last august, if we want to

kind of follow that pattern, i mean, the fed was by its own admission still way behind the curve. the market pricing had really built in that they were going to be soon pausing. powell didn't want to see that, and now you haven't had a ton of pushback in terms of how the market is pricing the fed path, the bigger risk seems to be maybe the economy starts to wobble in a more pronounced way between now and maybe when the fed finally declares that it's finished >> i want to challenge that, mike i don't think there's a difference because right now, fed funds futures and many of our colleagues still articulate rate cuts in the back half of this year, and the fed has been pretty staunch in seeing that they don't see a scenario in which they do that as in a black swan event they see the same disprarate views, and while the rate hiking cycle may be over, we're nowhere near any rate cuts at this point. >> that's fair, and, in fact, i guess it all comes down to the debate on whether, in fact, you think the stock market truly has

been intern lializing that for t cuts before you go though, what do you do in terms of tactically right now in the market? defensive groups have outperformed seems like the market is bracing for a slower economy, yet you probably have to pay up in terms of valuation for those type of stocks. >> right, and the increasing valuation is really a backburner sense of mind, and what they're doing is seeking safe haven in money centers. they're seeking safe haven in that mega-tech nasdaq 100 that has tail winds, but what will arrive is the debt ceiling where i've said many times that our best case scenario is the 2011 example that we have set where the market climbed 20% in the three weeks before the date. you see even in the yield curve the concern over this is starting to grow, where there's a market difference between the one-month and three-month hangout. that's what i feel

>> that's fair as the deadline approaches, it probably becomes harder for the market to shrug it off great to talk to you have a good weekend. >> appreciate you. >> vijay, intel, it is up 4% off its highs from the morning in reaction to those i guess somewhat reassuring results that have printed last night, what's your take on the quarter and whether, in fact, things started to turn for intel? >> thanks for having me on, mike with intel and this, this came off low expectations i think the expectations came down enough, and it was under all. they put in a decent top line, but i think where the issue is that it's still a story, and the data is executed it's coming on time, and i think that's where the real issue of being there, and he will probably have a pretty strong presence with them, and giving a

road map so i think for intel, definitely expectations are low they came in better on the top line, but, you know, again, they're exceeding and not sure that it's on that side i think that's where the issue will be going to the back half when it comes on strong on data center, and on this side, you still have issues with a weak consumer going to the back half. >> right i do, if i'm kind of looking across a lot of the reaction to the quarter, it suggests that essentially the bet is that maybe things have gotten washed out enough, and when, in fact, activity is bottoming out and things are getting better, the stocks sometimes don't really give you a chance to get in before the recovery is actually confirmed. so do you not think there's a risk of that with a stock like intel? >> i think there is a lot of time on the clock. i think it's still a story, and we're going to the backside, and

they have to show ramp, and i think the consumer side which is where the pc demand will rest. it's in the back half, and so i think we are getting a move today, but it will be still, we will be watching to see if we get there as well. i think there's time on this clock. >> what would you prefer within the group at this point? is it the stocks that have already been showing, you know, leadership away from the pack, the nvidias and amds >> i think if you name some of them, they come in in the last couple of weeks, and i would say watch the thematic names nvidia continues to execute well, and they've dominated that space in the ai, and amd is coming quite a bit, and we should see them execute. the price is still weak, but we should start to see -- they should start to shore up execution. i think one name that is really

should be good is they want to look to 2024 because the supply is getting cut significantly, and if there's a rebound, you could see a significant strengthening on the pricing side as well in the back half of this, and that will pull out this as well like this, and i think those names definitely work out well, and don't forget that authenticification site, and i think that should do well because they're in a pretty circular technology road map there. >> does intel have a plausible case that ai investment remains a tail wind for them at all or are they trying to participate in what the theme is elsewhere >> absolutely. i think it's just that they have to show a ramp of the new products

they have to show execution. they have to show the option because i think where ai has done very well is for nvidia, and they have established a big detail with the very strong software container, and then they introduced a whole slew of hardware on there with their nvidia cpus. it's been a tough task for amd to crack because they're coming into the hardware side and still trying to crack the software side of ai for intel, you know, i think they are ready they are a roadmap, but again, it'll start from the server side, execute, and show execution in the ai side, and show adoption, and i think that's still ahead of them >> stock trading above 30, but still a little bit below where it was in early april. vijay, i appreciate the time today. thanks a lot >> thanks a lot. >> we'll hear from intel's ceo coming up in just a few minutes.

steve covac, waiting for this to drop it's interesting the stock has made quite a run and it's basically not too far below its august high. what might we expect to hear from the company next week >> we saw the other big tech names, you know, show modest growth for that quarter this year it's a different story for apple. they're expected to shrink sales will be down, and a lot of that is due to just this collapse in pc demand that we saw. we got a hit of that from some reports from idc and also microsoft's own report, and that just spells danger right now for the mac business, for the ipad business, but also the iphone business is the most important, and with china's reopening, they get some benefit there on two fronts, on the production front to meet the demand they may have missed in the holiday quarter when the shutdowns caused them to miss a lot of sales and also the consumer is getting back out there in china china's going to be incredibly important more so than ever. >> i'm sure it will, and, you

know, it's interesting apple's a stock that people are happy to buy for its stability and safety attributes when things look tough, and then they pivot to say, what's the next big thing? what's apple going to dangle in front of us in terms of the product cycle, what might be coming relatively soon >> i don't know if this is going to be really a big catalyst for the stock, but that headset, the arv headset we keep talking about. we expect apple to unveil that that's for their worldwide conference to hold every year. that's their first major new product since 2014 when they showed us the apple watch. >> 2014. that's a whole nine years ago. >> exactly >> kind of amazing we'll be talking plenty about it next week as the numbers come. steve, thanks very much. as we head into the close, about 40 seconds to go the dow up about 250 points. we're holding onto most of today's gains. s&p 500 also up, about eight-tenths of a percent. pretty close to the highs of the day. also on track for a gain for the week as well as for the month of

april. market breadth will be a little bit better it's been a narrow rally to this point, but today we have 70% of stocks up, and the volatility index poised to close the week under the 16 market. it shows stability and sturdiness in the stock markets this week. that's going to do it f for "closing bell. have a good weekend. we'll send it over tto to "overtime." you got your score card on wall street, but even on a friday, welcome to "closing bell overtime." morgan brennan is off today. we've got a big hour comingure wa -- congresming your way as we p up the week. we have pat guelsinger as we jum in history, and perhaps the light at the end of the inventory tunnel plus, fdic chair, sheila bair breaks down the latest, and the fed's finding of the collapse of