good monday morning. i'm sara eisen live at the milken conference in beverly hills, california, along with carl quintanilla at the new york stock exchange setting the agenda today, huge lineup the ceos of bank of new york mellon, brookfield management,

kkr and mondoles talking about the takeover of first republic bank, the state of commercial rae, the consumer and a whole lot more >> it's going to be big. as earnings season continues, our next guest is forecasting a drop with the year-end s&p target 4k and also says bulls -- she asks if bulls are becoming an endangered species with sell side indicating that equity allocations have hit a six-year low. joining us, savida great to have you back. >> great to be here, carl. thanks >> how you've been processing earnings season, the notion there is earnings momentum we know there's some natural suppress ants that could come during the summer in the form of the debt ceiling, but what is the most constructive you can be at this given moment >> yeah. you know, i think that what's interesting is when you think about what we're all talking

about and focused on is all of the bad stuff. it's the idea that inflation hasn't been contained and the fed might be forced to continue to hike. it's the fact that we're heading into this recession we've been talking about for what feels like, you know, many quarters now. and, you know, i think what's interesting is when you look at the positioning of investors today, it's very similar to what we saw at market bottoms in, you know, 2009, 2020, you know, bond allocations are higher than they've been in ten years, stock allocations are lower than they've been since 2009. you know, and this is based on our sell side indicator which is a gauge of how bullish or bearish wall street is i found it hard to find an unequivocally bullish client because we're all looking at, you know, everything going on and thinking rates just rose from 0 to 5% in a very short period of time and it feels like something else is going to break besides just what we've seen so far

i will tell you this, though, i think that what we've seen in earnings over the last few weeks, and we're waiting -- this is another busy week of earnings we're going to wait until the end of this week to see what we hear what i find also very surprising and positive is that companies have actually been guiding up much more than they usually do so, just to quantify this, the guidance ratio, the number of companies guiding above versus below consensus expectations is now sitting at around 1.6. normally it's below, it's 0.8. today 60% or more companies are guiding above versus below whereas normally companies are managing expectations lower. and i feel like that's another odd but very positive data point that suggests that, you know, corporate america has managed a lot of these risks pretty aggressively they've cost cut, they're not seeing as much of a demand

destruction as everybody was expecting. and expectations might be too low rather than too high at this point. >> right does that make those who argue there would be a reckoning on earnings actually somewhat in the near term, does that thesis need to get a second look here and as a second point for the rest of the year, do earnings simply need to sort of just meet rather than blow it out of the water in order for some of the bears to come out of their holes? >> well, you know, it's a good point. i don't know if earnings jus meeting expectations will be enough, but i feel like the market has been in this trading range for the last several quarters i mean, our target is 4,000 and we've hit our target more times this year than i can remember at any other year and i think that what's driving upside and downside for equities is positioning, is this sort of, you know, 180-degree pivot from everything's okay to everything is awful

and right now we are more in that everything is awful camp. so, i think that, you know, depending on how long it takes for investors to get more comfortable with earnings and revise everything higher, maybe then we start to see disa disappointing earnings expectations but here's our view. so, here's the next two years. i think that we see a shallow earnings recession accompanied by a shallow economic recession. that's what our economists are forecasting. >> on you call it recession light. >> recession light, exactly. and then next year, you know, as long as we don't see sort of other hidden massive consequences of rates moving this quickly from 0 to 5, you know, over the next 12 to 24 months, i think that we could actually be in a great recovery year for earnings next year. we could see 10% earnings growth next year off very low levels, but i think, you know, again,

where am i surprised where i'm always surprised by corporates is in their ability to preserve margins against all odds we've had the fastest move in inflation ever and margins haven't really been dismated so, i think that's the dewatch here. >> we talk about the dynamism of u.p.s. corporates all the time it's one of our crown jewels and we're seeing it play out, although others would argue margins get protected, but always in the context of jobs getting cut. what would that mean for year-end unemployment? we talked earlier this morning about capital one building in a plan for 5% year-end, but i don't know if we actually get there. what do you think? >> i think the layoffs are happening. they're happening more in the higher end income bracket. it was crushed by the great rose i guess nation during covid.

unless all those folks come back, it's hard to argue labor markets ease significantly and as quickly as everyone expects what's happening now are sowing the seeds from efficiency and productivity remember those days that we haven't seen productivity gains in a really long time and it's because most of the margin expansion we've seen has been through cost-cutting, globalization, super low financing rates. everything has been easy for margins over the last 20 years now what you're seeing is companies actually spending on automation, on productivity, on efficiency i think what was also very interesting about earnings season so far is that if you count the number of times we've heard the word efficiency, we have a chart on this in one of our notes. it's off the charts. we had to redraw the chart to highlight how of the moment this

efficiency theme is. so, i think that is the positive for margins going forward is that companies are being forced to think about getting more efficient when it comes to labor because it is such a tight market. >> right well, just wait until the ai use cases really start kicking in. that's what the market is trying to compute at the moment >> exactly we'll talk more in the wake of the fed later in the week. great to see you. >> great to see you. >> sara? >>. >> biggest story of the day, jpmorgan's chase of first republic banks ceo jamie dimon telling analysts after the deal, quote, this part of the crisis is over. this morning it's been a mixed bag for the regionals. the kre more or less flat. jpmorgan is higher pac west and western alliance seeing positive. is nc trading down. joining us from this milken conference with his outlook for the sector is bank of new york

mellon president and ceo robin vince. good morning we're lucky to have a bank ceo on with this deal move >> it's great to be here at the milken conference with you. >> how do you feel about the banking system this morning? >> i think the banking system is very strong. we feel very good about it resilience is so important for the u.s. economy and a resilient banking system is critical for that as well we're proud to have played our role in that whole process as the world's largest custodian and provider of so many pieces of infrastructure across the backing system and one of the banks that helped stabilize the situation originally with the deposit into first republic. >> you're talking about the $30 billion deposited. >> that's right. >> march 16th to try to prop things up. that didn't work now you get the money back in this deal. >> we will get the money back. i actually think it did work i think it was extremely helpful in creating a path to what's ultimately happened. as you said from the outset, the

situation has now calmed down and that's what our clients wanted and what i think all of the u.s. economy needed was to put this thing behind us >> what do you make of this deal with jpmorgan and the fdic who got a good deal? jpm, the government? >> look, at the end of the day, i think all participants of the u.s. banking system got a good deal because putting this chapter behind us and making sure we can look forward and make sure that we're all focused on helping grow the u.s. economy and deal with some of the other issues that exist around the world, i think that's really the key thing. we were proud to play the role we played. and as america's oldest bank and the role we play in global capital markets with all of our significant platforms, it was important to us to play that role we felt a responsibility to the system to originally participate with the ten other banks in making that deposit and i'm glad it's worked out as well. >> do you see more bank failures in this country? >> i think this chapter is

really behind us it's very, very different situation as many commentators point out compared to 2008 we'll have to see what happens in terms of the path of rates. we've been focused with our clients on helping them to navigate the situation but i think one of the lessons we've all learned from what's happened over the course of the past couple months is that resilience is a commercial asset. so, focusing on resilience, whether for us, it's the resilience of our platforms, we provide critical services to the u.s. treasury market, we provide payment services around the world, those things are critical but so is having a resilient balance sheet. you don't get to be 239 years old unless you've actually focused on that. >> you touched 20% of investable assets around the world, which is huge. what are you seeing right now in the wake of some of these bank failures and the stress in the system >> well, look, our clients are telling us that they're seeing a little bit of a slowdown in a variety of different -- whether

it's to raise capital, to put capital to work. there's a real sense of the medium and long-term vibrancy of the u.s. as a result of energy independence as a result of the innovation in the u.s., and it's interesting how around the world that message has carried out. >> it's interesting considering we've seen outperformance in places like europe this year because part of the problem on the banks was in the united states there's a lot of noise when it comes to rate rises and the economy. >> i think if you step back from the u.s. banking system in the u.s., you see an incredibly strong system here you see all the capital that's been added to the system, the liquidity added to the system. we i think we've seen the benefit of having very, very strong big banks in the united states >> should the fed still be raising rates in this

environment where we just had second biggest bank failure in the country? >> look, chair powell has been quite clear about this in the past my words, not his. they can walk and chew gum at the same time. at the end of the day, they had to deal with some of the stresses in the system but they also have job number one, which is to make sure they're focused on inflation and that's what he said that they're going to do. that's what they've been doing. >> you don't worry about the fallout from the banking industry if they keep going. >> look, i think you always have to pay attention to being resilient when you have such an unprecedented -- at least for the past 40 years rise in rates. 475 basis points over the course of a year is a lot but at the same time, for firms that have invested in their asset investment liability, for firms like us that have proven their resilience, that's what the regulators and the fed expect is you've done the homework we don't pin our hopes on a particular outcome in rates. our clients expect us to prepare our platforms to be ready for them come what may, whether rates are low, whether rates are

high that's what we've been doing >> robin vince, i guess good to hear you chiming in here, that this chapter is over, echoing what jamie dimon said. >> could to be with you. after the break, is commercial real estate the next sector of the economy to fall apart? we'll ask the biggest players in the space. the ceo of brookfield asset management joins me at milken next. the co-executive of kkr on overseas opportunities we'll tell you what region he's so bullish on when "squawk on the street" returns in just two minutes. is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪

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. welcome back live from the milken conference in l.a one of the areas we talked about most in the wake of this year's bank failures, commercial real estate with everything from logistic centers to offices to senior housing, our next guest has his happened in nearly every aspect of this market still seeing strong demand despite the broader shift to remote work. joining us with his outlook and much more is brookfield ceo bruce flat it's good to see you, bruce. >> good to see you. >> i don't know if people realize how big and how broad your portfolio is. we think about commercial real estate, you also own infrastructure, renewables, pipelines. it's huge. insurance companies. overall, what are you seeing right now on the economy >> look, when you have almost $1 trillion of stuff around the world, you see a very broad array of things. and it's -- look, i would say

the economies are slowing. there's no doubt around the world. these businesses that we own are long-term cash flow generating businesses and we look at them over a decade into the future. the fact is, recessions come and go, but these businesses keep growing. we're seeing enormous investment into infrastructure, into transition globally. that's driving many economies. it's going to be driving economies for decades going forward. so, it's actually -- it's actually pretty good >> it's pretty good. it's interesting to hear you say that because in some of the headlines lately, commercial real estate, doom and gloom. brookfield defaulting on some mortgage loans and office buildings like washington, d.c. and san francisco. what is the story there? >> look, the situation is commercial real estate is the largest -- real estate in general, start there real estate in general, it's the largest business in the world. everyone has an opinion.

and, therefore, againgeneralitie really, really danger. some real estate is defaulting and some interest rates went up a lot or tertiary properties or properties that aren't well located are bad. they'll have problems. we had a few of them, which is a small percentage of our portfolio. our core business, which is great industrial, hotels high-end retail, premium office, it's actually doing really well today. cash flows are up. it's a tale of two cities. one has to be very, very careful so, yes, there are issues in some commercial real estate but it's -- the biggest one that has the issue is commodity traditional office and. >> how exposed to that are you >> we have very little when you have 7,000 properties around the world, you have some but 95% are assets real estate is in the good real

estate today and 5%'s in something else unfortunately, that's what catches the news. >> even the new real estate, manhattan west is one of your properties you're getting pretty high rates for that. >> so, manhattan west is an example of it. the rents there are 40% higher than when we did the first building, which was just pre-covid. so, we've just leased 100% of the space up it's a tale of two cities. if you're in new york and you're in commodity office space on third avenue in midtown, it's not very good. and if you're in great space, we're leasing 655th leaver house, manhattan west, and these are attracting very premium rent it's the same across the world in london it's the same. in dubai it's the same in shanghai it's the same. in sydney it's the same. great space attracts really high prices >> would you open or develop a new office building in san francisco right now? >> san francisco's tougher there's a lot of excess space.

and you wouldn't do it today but eventually, yes. san francisco will come back it will be a great city in the long term. we don't have a big exposure to san francisco. but longer term it will come back. >> how much distress broadly do you see ahead for commercial real estate, especially with these now bank failures and the anticipated crunch for regional banks? >> remember, the regional banks own, on average, $5, $6, $7, $8 million loans to every single little piece of real estate across america most entrepreneurs are doing well they're paying their rent and paying their interest. it's not that big of a deal but there is more stress in that commodity exposure and that's going to cause some issues but there's no banking problems out there. >> you have a credit business as well i'm curious how you're affected by what we're seeing another bank failure this morning with jpmorgan. >> we have a number of credit

businesses the biggest one is under the oak tree name. and for our opportunistic credit business, it's going to be really good. we're putting a lot of money to work out there because credit conditions have been tightened over the last 12 months. they're going to continue to be tightened. for those large institutions like ourselves with vast access to capital, there's going to be opportunity. so, it's exciting times in that respect. >> i know you're also very excited about the opportunity in infrastructure because you've been building that for a while now we have the inflation reduction act. how has that -- how has that created more investment opportunities? and do you feel this is the right environment given financing conditions are still really tough >> sara, we pivoted our business years ago to infrastructure in a big way and renewables recently we pivoted renewables to transition. the amount of money that's getting invested, and that's why you asked up front, are we excited about today or depressed

about today, the things with he see, the amount of investment that's going into the digitalization of the economy, what's behind your cell phone, the deglobalization, so the buildout of massive infrastructure in economies around the world and the decarbonization of energy systems is tens of trillions, $100 trillion invested over the next 20 years to really reindustrialize the economies of the world. it's really exciting putting money to work. we've got -- we got very big businesses in it and it's very operational in nature and sort of suits what we do. >> how can individual investors take advantage of that >> look, there's -- i was going to say, you can buy b, a, m or bm or bit or bep they all start with brookfield on the private well side we're

continuing to create products which we can feed into the well systems out there. that's how individuals are taking advantage or capitalizing on these trends out there. and that was just started. where most institutional clients have those assets within their portfolios, we're now just figuring out how to deliver those products to individual investors in different ways. and over the next 25 years, that will significantly grow because private assets are really the place to be. it just takes away the volatility of the markets. >> finally i need to ask you about retail because you've done some interesting deals, too, with jcpenney's and kohl's what is the outlook given we are expecting weakness in the consumer in the u.s. and there are worries about some of these storied retailers? >> our high-end retail centers are 30 -- sales are 30% up over

2019, the year before covid. so, retail in high-end - >> luxury is up? >> luxury in a big way but everything people are out shopping and retail sales -- remember, inflation affects retail sales in a positive way. they are getting an inflationary effect out there but in a significant way. >> what do you think the outlook is for deals >> look, deals have been tougher over the last 12 months because it's harder to borrow money. but large groups like ourselves can still borrow money we just closed on an intermodal container shipping business for $13 billion of assets. we just bought origin energy in australia for $14 billion. we're doing deals around the world. but it's slower. it's slower. i think we were past the slowest part and we're coming out of it because the banks and the -- and funding markets are starting to open up again. >> with the fed moving toward a

pause? >> it's just -- rates are going up so fast, people don't know what to do so, they pause and now what's happening is people see that rates are where they are, stability is back into the system, and as a result, we just did a financing for hospitality business in the uk we've done a number of bond financing in the u.s we just did a bond financing on our global battery company for $.5 billion. markets are starting up again. >> it's good to get an update on all the businesses, a lot of them we barely scratched the surface. appreciate it brookfield asset management we'll continue the discussion, carl, and talk to the co-ceo of kkr. >> and the company behind oreos, richlt tz, the ceo of mondolez.

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the street." despite recent headwind. pe funds still closed on $23 million according to new data. what should investors expect for the rest of the year and where the current opportunities? joining me now in an exclusive interview is kkr co-ceo joe bae, first time on cnbc >> great to be here. >> first, i have to ask you about this jpmorgan deal with first bank republic. has any of the drama affected you? >> we at kkr have no exposure to first republic, to start from what i've read in the papers, it sounds like jpmorgan got a pretty good deal, based on how the markets reacted. we're aware of how the fdic is are handling this to nip the risk and be proactive.

i think we're you're seeing more constraints in the credit market and that will create enormous opportunity of the private credit industry of which we're -- >> i was going to ask. where are the opportunities? >> we have roughly $500 million under management right now the biggest piece of that, roughly $200 billion is in our private lending business so, while other parts of our business may have a slowdown in deal activity, we're seeing a tremendous opportunity right now in credit and in asset classes like infrastructure. >> what does that mean for the overall economy? does that mean the credit crunch everyone is worried about isn't going to be as severe with -- everybody here i've talked to says this is the moment for private lending. we're going to step in. >> well, i think in these moments where banks are constrained, capital markets, liquidity is at an all-time low since the gfc. you need other forms of capital to step in so, private credit is clearly one of the most attractive forms of capital for companies, for founders, for entrepreneurs who need capital at this moment in time. >> what is your view of the u.s.

economy right now? you have so many different businesses from dental to veterinary to insurance. people don't realize between the investments and the portfolio companies. what are you so eg >> listen, i think we're facing the same pressures that the broader u.s. economy is facing rates are going up, so the cost of capital is going up you're seeing access to capital both in the equity and debt markets more constrained at the same time we're trying to manage through this inflationary environment. i think our expectations are inflation is going to be stickier for longer, for a lot of big structural reasons. that means we need to are more thematic in the types of businesses we buy, the type of collateral based assets we're investing behind, real estate, infrastructure are just a couple examples of that. >> you expect inflation to stay higher for longer than the market expects. >> yes from our view, labor is obviously very tight you have the structural undersupply of housing in most major markets, including the u.s. and you have this incredible investment happening around energy transition.

the capex associated with that is going to be inflationary to commodity costs. >> what about deal-making if the financial conditions stay tight? what does that mean? bruce just told us we're seeing some action that we wouldn't have seen four months ago. do you agree >> i think for high quality businesses, for high quality credits, financing is still available. i think what's challenging today is not so much the credit availability because there's a lot of private len doors out there. you need a willing seller and willing buyer and today there's still a mismatch. >> i was going to ask what you're waiting for you have $108 billion in dry powder, waiting for a price correction >> i think today may 1st is our 47th anniversary at kkr. we've been in business for five decades in private equity. we've seen a lot of cycles, ups and downs. in our experience, the best buying opportunities and investing opportunities aren't periods like this, periods of real volatility in the marketplace so we're being

patient. we know there's going to be great opportunities in the coming years and we have a lot of dry powder to put to work. >> where are those opportunities? where in the world and what sort of themes? >> so, we invest globally across a number of different asset classes. we talked about credit, which i think today we're in the moment for credit infrastructure, as many defensive characteristics and inflation protection in a lot of the businesses we try to invest in infrastructure is booming. on top of that, decarbonization, infrastructure, so a lot of capital is flowing that way. asia is a tremendous opportunity. >> that's a business you built. >> just the demographics, the gdp per capita growth, upgrade in consumption so we're bullish on the asia opportunity. >> where specifically? it's not china, is it? >> we invest all across the region the big picture is 60% of the world's population is in asia. three of the four largest economies are in asia. the biggest millennial population in the world is in asia that growing middle class, the urbanization trends, adoption of

technology, so areas like pet food, veterinary care, retail pharmacies, e-commerce platforms. these are all big areas of investment for us. >> pet food in asia, that's the bullish call. >> in china. >> in china specifically i mentioned you helped grow the asia business. it's interesting you have first time we're talking to you, your co-ceo, scott nuttall, usually co-ceo structures don't work why is this going to be different? >> i think we would be the first to agree with you that co-ceo structures aren't best. >> especially in private equity. >> our firm has only known co-ceos, our co-founders, they're first cousin, best friends and they built this business we've all grown up at kkr. i've been there for 27 years with that kind of leadership model. my partner scott and i started at kkr in 1996 so literally 27 years ago as the two analysts in our new york office. so, i think without that trust,

that partnership, that chemistry, the co-model is almost impossible to get right but i feel fortunate that scott and i do have that experience and background together. >> stock's been pretty flat over the last year. market's been worried about the markdown you have this ambitious plan to double earnings over the next five years how do you do that in an environment where you expect inflation to stay high and the fed to stay restrictive, right you're not expecting cuts? >> listen, i think we are more excited today than we've ever been in our 47-year history about the future growth of the firm and it's a number of aspects number one, we have exceeded a number of businesses in the last ten years that are just starting to scale so, there are businesses like infrastructure, real estate, our credit business, our growth equity business. again, we're in innings two or three in terms of the growth of those platforms. number two, asia we have a very differentiated position in that marketplace number three, infrastructure trillions, tens and hundreds of

dollars invested behind decarbonization climate. it's going to be a massive opportunity for us and private wealth the individual investor. we are just starting to build our platform in that space private wealth represents around 15% of our capital raising every year we think over time that could be 30% to 50% of our annual capital raising. there's a lot of different levers for growth. >> it seems like you're expecting a rockier period if you're looking for prices to come down and inflation to stay high before you jump on all these big opportunities, it sounds like you expect a bumpy road. >> i think the next two to three years will have extraordinary investment opportunities i think today at the moment there might be a little mismatch in pricing expectations. but we think some of the busiest times we'll have are the next three to five years in terms of deploying capital. >> thank you for taking the time, joe. good to talk to you. >> good to be with you. >> joe bae, co-ceo of kkr. coming up, dirk van de put

with mondelez. we'll talk to him about opportunities, pricing how about that inflation call we just heard 'rba itwmitewee ckn o nus. what if buildings could tell you how they could be more efficient? i'm listening. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create.

♪ imagine, a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is spacious. as smart as it is beautiful. introducing lucid air. experience the best. ♪ ♪ welcome back shares of mondelez continuing to outperform, hovering at all-time high once again today, now up 20% this year. the snacking giant reporting a strong beat last week on pricing and volume growth while also raising its sales and profit

outlook. with us now is dirk van de put, mondelez ceo at the milken conference where we've seen an increasing number of ceos. it's good to have you. >> thank you >> stock at an all-time high, business is doing really well. is that a recessionary indication because you're defensive and people are always buying snacks or not because you're getting this great pricing power? >> yeah. we've been investing in our brands for quite a while and increasing the investment every year for me it's more a reflection of all the work we've been over the previous years that now when the moment comes, we have the price that the consumer has confidence in our brands and has a connection with our brands so, they keep on buying. the volumes were up this quarter also on top of very good pricing. that's leading to these great results. >> double digit increases in pricing. does that continue are you going to continue to raise prices does it flat line? does it come down? what happens >> we're trying to just offset our cost increases

we're not trying to price for percentage margin. we're trying to price for that this year the increase of the input cost is just the same magnitude as it was last year. we have to go -- we had to go through pricing increase now going forward at this stage, the commodities are flat, slightly down i'm not expecting this will continue in the coming months and beginning of next year but the year is still long we'll see what happens to commodity prices. >> that's what i was trying to figure out, if the pricing growth in some package food companies is outpacing what's happening with costs costs should be coming down. we've seen disinflation in a lot of parts of the economy. >> yes, yes, but it's a mixture. for example, in chocolate, cocoa is at an all-time high which wasn't there last year transportation is coming down but wages are up it's a whole mix of input costs are some are at their all-time high and big increases this year while others versus last year

are a little lower as it relates to increases. >> what do you see from the u.s. consumer it's interesting that even with the strong pricing growth, you haven't seen volumes fall. >> no, the u.s. consumer is feeling confident. also the european consumer is getting better i think they keep prioritizing food, and you can clearly see that, of course, in the -- all food companies are doing well. i think they've cut down on other things like travel, eating out, so on overall you see the spending, the consumer is not fazed by the situation. i personally believe because we came out of the pandemic, they had good savings, they felt like, well, if life is going to be miserable, i just want to live well. and do what i need to do i think that's really a sentiment. >> how does oreos fit into that. >> oreos fits into that because during the pandemic they needed moments to regain confidence, feel good. they got into the habit and now more and more consumers are

saying a little indulgent moment every day has to be part of my day today. >> what are you seeing on the ground in china since the reopening? >> yeah, things are improving very rapidly our business was good even during the lockdown, but you can feel the confidence coming back. mobility's going up. it's clearly, we saw it in the first quarter and i'm expecting it in the coming quarters that china will come back. >> what is it going to take, dirk, to get global food inflation to come down it sounds like we don't see it happening very fast. >> well, i would say for last year and this year, the commodities went up the same amount more or less for us for next year we don't see that yet. they would be currently, if we look at the forward pricing, they're flat to slightly down for where we are today so i do hope if it stays like that, maybe comes down a little more, the beginning of next year we don't have to see big price increases we just saw this year. that's what i think is going to

happen >> what do you tell -- this is an investor conference so you probably get a lot of questions on m&a you've done some bolt-on deals in your tenure how do you feel about the portfolio now? >> we are very clear on what we want we do m&a to reinforce our position around the world in good times and bad times because often the companies that we would like to associate ourselves with are not available or suddenly there's a moment they're open to that so, we'll continue to do what we're doing. the nine we've done since i'm the ceo have worked out really well we're very happy with the results. they've added to our growth. that's another reason why our growth has been so strong. and we expect that the climate for deal-making is going to be more open than it was during the pandemic >> how defensive is the -- are the categories that you're in, snacking food generally, yes, but you do have a lot of treats. >> yes, yes. >> that we don't need.

>> yeah. i think that the category is very strong. we see growth all around the world. millennials and generation z ea in a different way i think we're sitting in the right category it can be a very good long-term play. >> dirk van de put, thank you for taking the time at the milken conference today. ceo of mondelez. carl >> sara, coming up, why softbank may be the key that unlocks the ipo market we'll geth sryt atto and "techcheck" when we come back. don't go a wap what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns...

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s it's shaping up to be the year's largest ipo arm confidentially filing to go public today >> it has been a long road back to public markets. soft bank bought up back in 2016 for $32 billion and nvidia tried to buy it for $40 billion and shot down by regulators. and then devoted to get this thing listed, so here we are, confidential filing that let soft bank's arm figure out where valuation lands. between 30 and $70 billion has been reported, and that's a huge

range that reflects the uncertainties in the broader market and the ipo market that has been dead since last year, and the arm would be viewed if it raises between 8 and $10 billion, it lands between an uber and rivian sized, and if they go well it could open the floodgates there's a spinoff from j&j and raise more than $3 billion that's more than the combined total of new ipos so far this year and there's instacart, it could follow it has been looking for the right conditions to go public, and it filed confidentially last year and then there are other companies that have been private

for a long time. it could be seen as an endorsement for the health of the rally we have seen this year especially in tech i was just looking at mobileye, and that was a recent big one. ipo to 21 bucks this year and is trading at 36, so the gains have been sustainable >> interesting, too, what they said about the some of the ev markets in china over the last couple of days, and the big question would be, there has been talk about restaurants. which sectors would lead any kind of revival in ipo since we are down 22% on the year >> it's a great question over the last few years, right, it has been a lot of tech ipos, and those are the ones that have suffered as well the ipo class of 2021, and some of the high-flying names in fintech and enterprise software, and those gains have not been sustainable and that's what scared off a lot of tech companies from going public. if we see that revived, i think in a big way that could relive

that ipo mark and open the window for us. >> yeah, interesting to see what conditions they are looking for in timing of all this. we will talk more about that in the micong days. thank you. we will have one more nod from milken after the break. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

a lot of talk about the story of the day, jpmorgan buying the deal >> at the end of the day all participants in the u.s. banking system got a good deal because putting this chapter behind us and making sure we can look forward and we are focussed on helping grow the u.s. economy and deal with some of the other issues that exist around the world, that's the key thing. we were proud to play the role that we played >> we have no exposure to first republic from the start, and based on what i read in the papers it sounds like jpmorgan got a good deal, and we are supportive of how they are

handling this. on a bigger picture level, though, you are seeing more constraint than the credit markets as banks pull back that will create tremendous opportunity for the private city >> that's what i was going to say a lot of the discussion evolves around the opportunities here, talking about private lending, credit, giving loans to small and medium sized businesses when the big banks pull back, and how that could create a huge lucrative opportunity for firms like that, and everybody is excited about renewables once the financing conditions get better, i think there's a lot of demand for deals like that >> yeah, one of the journals is all about the building boom and how it will prolong market pain in their view. i thought it was fascinating,

the timing about san francisco where they see value in the long-term asset and will be patient about pricing in the near term. >> wouldn't touch it now or wouldn't invest in building buildings there. we have a big lineup tomorrow as well i will be here with you from los angeles, and we will talk to the ceo of kroger and of levi. >> not too far from the highest close of the year, let's get to "the half. thank you very much. welcome to the "halftime report." the state of stocks, a new month and a really big week yet under way. the fed is focused along with apple earnings, and we are debating all at stake. steven weiss, joe terranova, jenny harrington, and jim hrafen thaul.