is the jobs market finally cooling off? what it could signal for the economy. analysis, friday, 8:30 eastern. it's 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here's your "five@5." the fed prepares to raise interest rates for the tenth time since march of 2022 what they're telling clients ahead of the release. and speaking of the fed, it's not just wall street, but nine straight hikes hitting main street in a very big way we facbreak down the rising cos with consumers and oil is coming off its worst day since january, but don't expect the prices at the pump to

fall just as fast. plus after taking off jack dorsey square, hindenburg research has a new target. this time carl icahn and we lay out the key factors at play. it's wednesday, may 3rd, 2023. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange. i'm frank holland. let's kick off the hour with a check on stock futures after a sharp decline yesterday. looking at futures right now, they're strongly in the green across the board you can see the dow opening up 20 points higher today is very early. it's a huge day, all of this ahead of the federal interest

rate decision out ahead at 2:00 p.m. and then the news conference to follow a tenth straight rate hike from the fed, one of the items on wall street's wall of worry along with the continued debt sector much more on all of that coming up later in the show with that in mind we're checking the bond market starting off with the benchmark 10-year note at about 3.30. the 2-year yield back below 4% we're also watching energy with wti coming off a very rough session yesterday, closing down more than 5% for its worst day since january 4th. wti crude is just at over 70 bucks, ten bucks lower than it was after opec announced production cuts. brent crude, the international benchmark, down 2% natural gas up fractionally.

time now for the top stories including a rough session for the regional bank. silvana is now here. good morning. >> frank, good morning to you. that is right. we continue to watch the action and the regional banging sector after it closed at its lowest level since 2020 leading the group was california pacwest bank closing down nearly 30% after being called multiple times for volatility that stock is down more than 70% this year. it wasn't just pacwest in fact, all 148 stocks in the kre regal bank etf closed lower with names like zions, first hawaiian, and citizens after taking on jack dorsey square, the short seller hin dinburg research has a new target, carl icahn

in response, icahn calls the report self-serving aimed at generating products at the expense of iep shareholders. thinking on the news, seeing its worst day on record and erasing some $10 million in icahn's net worth. and vp harris will meet at a summit with microsoft, google, open ai to discuss artificial intelligence she'll address the need to safeguard and emphasize the importance of innovation frank. >> i think this is the beginning of the conversation about ai. >> way more to come. >> way more to come from you we'll see you later in the show. expectations are for a 25 basis-point interest rate

increase and the signal of a pause in its aggressive hiking campaign ahead of that decision, jpp morgan says stock traders have yet to fully embrace that move, and a change is not fully priced into equities. jpmorgan's trading desk adding a stockmarket rally is in sight if the fed hikes and pauses with the s&p adding half a percent to 1% in the aftermath. joining me now to discuss is de geus write gentlemen, great to have you both here. >> great to be with you. >> good to be on with you. >> alan, let's start with you. do you agree with jpmorgan's thesis, that we could see a rally with the s&p 500 >> we agree. the market is certainly waiting with bated breath for this afternoon and how the fed's going to respond to the most recent banking issues as well as

the inflationary data, and we think the market's going to do well coming out of that and thinking they will pause. >> degus, if everybody is kind of expecting this, why isn't it already priced in? >> because we've had so much there's a lot of negative with this market. >> degas, sticking with you, we expect a quarter rate hike and probably a pause how do you balance the portfolios and amarrange the sectors when it comes to regional banks >> let's first talk about regional banks we're reducing our exposure there because we're still seeing weakness in that area. we're also looking at the fact we're overweighting health care. health care has done really well during this period

also we're looking aet those companies that have a competitive advantage and those companies that have positive net earnings revisions these are areas that you can still have very good returns in stocks in this market. >> a >> alan, where are you at? >> we've been neutral when it comes to stocks versus bonds there's going to be a lot of volatility coming out of fed rate hikes and a slowing economy. so we felt invests were best served to have a balance between the two or neutral weighting between those two. and on the fixed income side of the house, we felt investors should stay short duration, really not benefitting from being out long on the curve as well as focusing on quality and credits, feeling that there really wasn't a real opportunity yet on the credit side of the house as it relates to

investment grade and even on the high yield side as markets got a little more volatile and what we've seen with the stockmarkets unfold. >> we're going to go "lightning round. alan, i'm going to start with your stock picks you're looking at coca-cola and apple. what makes them so attractive at this inflection point? >> we think it's about p and l, return on investment capital and equity, looking at companies that have pricing power and cost of inflationary trends if they can do that and pass those profits on t shareholders, we think investors will be well served. >> degas, i know you have a few picks. if you were to put money on one stock, which would it be >> it would be co-part.

>> shares up almost 29%, 30ch year to date degas wright and alan mcknight, we appreciate you being here. plenty more to come here on "worldwide exchange" including that one word thain vesters just have to note today also why howard schultz's shadow seems to loom over starbucks' new ceo, pushing the stock sharply lower in the premarket. plus much more in the oil steep drop and the $70 crude is here to say. and later the anti-esg wave turning into a tidal wave as governor desantis signs some of the most restrict irv bills into law. we have a very busy day ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time now for one of your big money movers you can see here, starbucks sliding about 5% at the open really, the biggest news came from newly minted ceo speaks during the post earnings conference call last night it's his first since officially taking over from howard schultz back in march, opting to stick with his pred sayser is's four-year forecast and cited uncertainty on international travel, though, many on the street were expecting an increase especially if quarterly results came in stronger than

expected let's talk with jefferies managing director. andy, great to have you here pretty strong beats. we mentioned stocks down almost 5% after the call, its new ceo reiterating guidance what you heard on the call, is it changing your price target and rating for this company? >> yeah, we did raise our price target slightly this morning as we went out to calendar '24 numbers to base our price targets with a pretty steep multiple already it doesn't change our whole grading or slightly more cautious view given where our estimates are falling for fiscal '24. >> andy, explain this one to me. the street isn't happy with what he had to say, but it actually

caused you to raise your price target what did you hear that made you full bullish >> it really wasn't anything incremental, it was just again looking out to calendar '24. this is the time of year where we move all our price targets out to next year where we had been previously looking at calendar year '23. our revenue caution comes, again, from what they didn't do, which is raise the outlook for this year. there's also moderating same store sales in the u.s. back to that 7% to 9% range here in the q2. >> give us a sense i want to get to the numbers more beyond same store sales and eps, the basic thing, was there another metric that you were looking at that gave you a positive feeling about this coffee chain >> i mean the margins are

recovering, and they did recover more strongly than expected, which provided some of the upside in both the americas as well as international. the problem is that the americas margin was boosted by about 180 basis points of one-time items that won't recur going forward and the international margins were boosted by a faster than expected recovery in china, particularly in march when same store sales were up 30%. so they kind of pulled forward, they think, some of the recovery and margin in china. >> so, andy, double question here for you how big of an impact is the shadow of howard schultz and what does the report tell us about the u.s. consumer. >> i think howard came in and, you know, stabilized the organization at a critical time when there was some unrest with their partners they continue to make progress with partner turnover down 9

percentage points versus the 2q a year ago this is very important for productivity and margins going forward. the challenge is they also talk about some incremental reinvection plan investment. the reinvention plan was part of what howard taermed the renewal of focus on the partners. i think that surprised the street a little bit. in terms of the american consumer, right now, solid kind of numbers we are a little bit more concerned going forward as we move into the latter part of the year that the consumer may start to manage expenditures particularly in the afternoon/daypart of starbucks, which is what they saw with the weakness before the great financial crisis in '06/'07.

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welcome back to w.e.x. we begin with shares of amd dropping after beating expectations in the first quarter but issuing guidance for the current period is below analysts' sentiments pc and server markets strengthen lisa su will have much more on the quarter in a cnbc exclusive coming up at 9:15 a.m. eastern time. ford posting a gain, a u-turn from a year ago maintaining its previously announced guidance for the years. it expects to lose $3 billion from its ev operations this year also announcing yesterday it would again cut its startinging price of the mustang mach e by a thousand dollars

and chegg loses nearly half its value. chegg seeing the biggest decline falling as much as 50% yesterday as fears of a chatgpt takeover loom, but the ceo pushing back on the huge move on cnbc yesterday. >> i think this is extraordinarily overblown and i don't normally say that. i don't talk about the stock price much, but this is just -- it's quite a move. turning our attention to the energy market, something we continue to watch. you see prices fluctuating oil down ahead of massive losses you look at the impact it will have on the global economy and fuel demand.

wti crude dropping 5% yesterday, closing at its lowest level in six weeks. brent also falling 5% yesterday. those are the biggest one-day percentage declines since january. oil and gas stocks falling in tandem with crude prices chevron, conocophillips, and exxonmobil falling 4%. marathon oil more than 5%. halliburton falling 8% rita, great to see you as always. >> thanks for having me. >> first, can you given us a sense of what caused oil's big drop yesterday of course, we know the fetd's making its rate decision and the ecb also but shouldn't that have already been priced into the markets >> no, and i think it's been a 25-point basis hike. they've been expecting that as well i think yesterday let's move was probably more to do with the u.s. debt ceiling and comments talking about the fact that the

u.s. might run out of money by the first of june. that def notally spooked sentiment. i want to remind people what happened with the debt ceiling negotiations back in 2011. we did see some huge, huge drops in price -- crude prices back then and given the environment right now, there's so much uncertainty on the macro front i am expecting prices to kind of remain under pressure until the debt ceiling is sorted out. >> okay. so a lot of uncertainty, i think everybody agrees on that give us a sense where the oil markets are going. we're looking at brent crude and wti, 70 for wti. what's your time period for the debt ceiling revolted and what's your prieg tce target? >> i think for me is to talk about the price target for the end of the year.

fundamentals continue to tighten. we've seen crude stock drop. it's the first time in decades, over the past two decades actually only two times has the u.s. actually drawn stocks in april, so the market is tightening very slowly behind the scenes and this is even before opec has got. physical differentials around the world is strong and holding. that gives us a lot of confidence and we do think second half of the year prices will go up, as long as the economy goes we've modified the session in our numbers we see demand declining. that's all been priced in mostly i would say definitely factored into the balance the problem is as you ask in the short term could we see a 600 for brent? absolutely the oil price is price in a deep recession. the equity markets are pricing in a soft landing. both could be wrong.

the other issue is in it it's outright short and we haven't seen that in months. so any good news could trigger a lot of short covering, but i don't see any good news on the horizon on the microfront. >> you say by year end you see wti crude going up 70 bucks, possibly 100 in between time you see brent going down somewhere in the 60s? >> and wti as well i can't rule out it out. we're going to get more and more bad news it will spook sentiment. >> speaking of bad news and things that might spook sentiment, news out, the u.s. reports iran seizes an oil tanker in the strait of hormuz oil is ramping back up and u.s. is refilling the strategic petroleum reserve. those are a lot of the things going on i know it's a mishmosh, but give

us a sense is any of that a catalyst? >> as far as iran goes, that could push it up that will be brush aid side in terms of the economy china, it's interesting you say that i've heard a lot of people come out and talk about the slowing chinese oil demand blew out. it was absolutely enormous in march, well above our expectation takes as well. the issue is the oil demand has been very, very focused on transportation, not manufacturing. why? because, you know, we are not consuming as much. u.s. and europe are not consuming as much and they're not exporting as much. the manufacturing side is weaker that doesn't mean the overall recovery is slower it's that that bit has been slower we are continuing to see very strong demand out of china, and that's supporting the physical crude market

i don't think that's going to change the last point was on the u.s. strategic refilling. i don't think the spr is going to get refilled any time soon. they're selling spr. this is part of the management relief in q2 the earliest they're going to do something is q4. >> amrita sen, thank you for covering the ground especially with oil down 2% great to see you. straight ahead on "worldwide exchange,"ite note just wall street, but nine straight hikes hitting wall street in a very big way. we break down the rising costs facing consumers and how much worse it could g aeretft today much more on "worldwide exchange." back after this. no big deal? go on... well, what if you partner with ibm and red hat, use a hybrid cloud solution to connect data across multiple systems globally, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time... check. . ..to make quick decisions? check.

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it is right around 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area. we're just getting started on "worldwide exchange. here's what's on deck. jay powell set to hand down his latest rate move as the u.s. grapples with growing economic headwinds. we have seth carpenter standing by to lay out what this all means for your money one of those fresh headwinds, fears around the regional banks, those coming off of steep losses as questions swirlaround the future and democrats pulling out a hail mary to bypass republicans and to avoid a debt ceiling financial fault. it's wednesday, may 3rd. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's get a check on u.s. stock futures as we gear up and look at the futures the s&p up fractionally right now. the dow jones if it opened up right now, about the same levelevels we said a half hour ago, about 25 points higher the 2-year note t yield there new below 4%, so a move to the union side the 10-year also moving to the downside, now about 3.39 let's get a look at the big movers in europe our julianna tatelbaum is standing by in our london newsroom with much more. good morning, julianna. >> frank, good morning we've got a rebound underway

the stoxx 600 breaking, falling in line. this morning a very different picture. you've got green for every region the only outlier, the green. let me dive into some of the big movers for you unicredit in the banking sector is the best performing stock in the market this morning. ice up nearly 5% after the bank posted a more than 56% jump in the first quarter drawing momentum in all of its key areas. the italian lender raised its full year guidance in the airline space lufthansa is trading sharply lower, 3.7% after posting a 40% increase revenue in the first quarter the german airlines says it's look toward the summer season to improve the overall picture expecting summer holiday travel to increase. the results were seen as disappointing. finally stellantis shares in the auto sector, it's down

nearly 2% this morning despite posting a strong set of revenue figures in the results they delivered to the market. frank, back over to you. >> thank you, julianna our julianna tatelbaum live in our london newsroom. time now for our top stories. silvana henao is back with those stories. over to you. >> frank, good morning former top executives if silicon valley bank and signature bank set to discuss the collapse of the firms. there will be a meeting with gregory becker as well as signature bank's former chairman and co-founder scott shay and former chairman eric howell all set to testify a scheduled hearing is set to occur days later for michael barr and fdic chair martin

grueneberg florida governor ron desantis signing new rules the new law prevents state officials from investing public money to promote esg goals and ban sales. the legislation marks one of the widest reaching efforts yet by republican leaders against sustainable investing efforts. and house democrats launching a long shot effort to bypass republican leaders in that chamber to try and force a vote to raise the debt ceiling the strategy known as a dischance petition, that would force action on a bill that's backed by a majority of house lawmakers, but democrats would need five republicans willing to get on board with that plan, frank. >> a lot of political wrankling c up there's going to be a lot more football terms like hail marys that a lot more to come. turning our attention back to the fed we're hours away from the if fed's latest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern and hearing

from fed chair jay powell at around 2:30 p.m. eastern the markets are all but concerned about a bench rate hike many are expecting at least a hint of a pause. if today unfolds as expects, many economists believe the focus will be on what jay powell says and doesn't say about the possibility of a rate cut later this year. let's get more insight with this on this with seth carpenter with morgan stanley great to see you. >> good to see you. >> we laid out all the expectations, sect however, you're an economist, wu of the biggest banks in the world and former fed insider what are you excelling when it comes to a hike, a pause, a pivot? lay out your expectations. >> it's the last hike in theic huing cycle, but, boy, there are two things that are really important. one, a huge amount of uncertainty as to what's going on in the economy.

and, secondly, i don't think there's unanimity within the fed right now that this is the last rate hike or at the very least they can't be sure if you think about the fact there's a meeting today and there's another meeting in june, between now and june, we're going to get two more readings on the payrolls and the economy. we're going to get two more readings on the inflation. we think it's going to show the economy is continuing to slow and inflation is continuing to come off the boil. you can't be sure. i think the last thing the fed wants to do is whipsaw people even further do think they'll hike. we think powell opens the door for this to be the last hike of the hiking cycle, but i don't see a reason or even a possibility that he comes in and says, you know what, everybody, plant the flag, we're all done it's still going to be what we call a hawkish pause. >> let's pull on the thread a little more. the fed meeting is coming up at

2:00 p.m. eastern. how many hints are you expecting if any and, also, how does he address the regional banking crisis looking at the kre, down 1.5%. down 27% since silicon valley bank exploded. how much does he talk about all that >> i don't think he'll be able to escape talking about the banking situation. we did have the big report that michael barr put out very detailed, very much a mea culpa on the part of the institution, i would say. there is the clear possibility that the developments in the banking system expert more of a drag on the economy than the fed realizes and could be doing some of the slowing of the economy for them on the other hand, inflation is still really, really high. what does he do? the last statement they put out or the last policy statement said that additional increases may be necessary, and so in that sense, they've already left things a little bit vague. and then i think a lot of the

questions coming from reporters in the press conference will be about how big a deal is the banking system, are things getting better, are they getting worse. we had the sale of first republic i think he's going to have to tread very, very cautiously because there really is still a possible another shoe to drop there. >> i think it's a question you're going to get a lot of calls on what are you expecting in the way of a upon rate cut we're seeing the possibility of an economic slowdown, which should also lower inflation. when do you exactly expect the fed to say, you know what? we're going to cut these rates >> i know you've talked to a lot of economists in your day, so the answer is it depends the baseline view is not until next year. that's under the view that the economy is slowing, that inflation is continuing to trend down they'll be able to hold things after this hike for the second half of this year and into the

first quarter. now, other things could happen as we were just discussing if it gets to the point where the banking system is under more stress than we realize, you can see them maybe doing what they've called in the past a mid cyclical correction. if you think to 1995 where the fed cut 75 basis points but then held rates steady for essentially another year after that, i think that's a viable scenario as well where they make just a bit of an adjustment because they worry perhaps they had gone just a little bit too far. but baseline is not until q of next year. >> all right seth carpenter, global chief economist. great to have you here thanks for the insight. >> thanks, frank. let's head back over to main street another rate hike today doesn't just impact your portfolio it matters to the daily expenses of average americans first let's start with credit cards. the average rate is now 20%. that's an all-time high and 29

basis points higher than they were just a year ago consumers will pay an extra $31.7 billion in interest over the next 12 months because of the fed's nine straight rate hikes since march of 2022. and if the fed hikes again today, add another $1.7 billion to that number while mortgage rates are locked in for years, new and existing home buyers are not so lucky the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage, 6.6% massachusetts of last year was 4.3% a new loan, the average, $181,000 we have a similar story for the equity line of credit market, now sitting just below 8%. how about a new car? the average apr for a new car loan is just at 7%, up from just over 5% from just a year ago, but it's not all bad

the average yield on a five-year cd, up 2.0%. for more stats like these, head over to cnbc.com/personal-finance. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," we're digging into the reckoning facing regal banks. we talk with one analyst whether fallouts are ctaedonin or whether there's more pain to come we'll have much more on that when "worldwide exchange" returns. [office sounds] ♪upbeat music♪

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time now for your morning call sheet where we look at the upgrades and downgrades beginning with jpmorgan upgrading its call from unde underweight to neutral you look at the market share gains within the domestic light beer change. we look at logitech, moving it from neutral to sell, and from $57 a share down to more than $3 a share. they're facing increasing challenges including the risk of rising competition from larger consumer companies. now to a developing story as we continue to watch the action in the regal banking success tore after it closed at its lowest level since november of 2020 you can look and see right here. it's down about half a percent this morning leading the group to the downside, pacwest bank closing

down nearly 30% after being halted multiple times for volatility that stock's off now more than 70% this year, down sharply again this morning it wasn't just pacwest all the stocks, they closed lower yesterday with names like zi zions, citizens, u.s. bancorp and more joining me now to discuss is christopher mcgrady of kbw good morning. >> good morning, frank. >> it doesn't happen every day give us a sense. what led to the downside to the regal banking sector >> we thought going into the last weekend with first republic remaining in overhang, we thought an orderly resolution, which is what we got with jpmorgan, we thought that would be a clearing event for near term sentiment, and what you saw on monday is some of the banks trading better

we're trading on deteriorating sentiment again and that's what brought banks down yesterday. >> it's interesting. it's negative sentiment. i think a lot of people thought things were stabilized after the first republic deal. we had q1 earnings for all the banks including the regionals. what did you see when it came to q1 earnings? what's your take >> we moved to that position last december. really, it was a call that earnings had peaked. now, what we've seen over the last three or four months is we've seen earnings estimates get cut by 12%, 13%, 14% on average. in that fully round trip, the earnings revisions went higher last year. wit gough doing be about capital levels and liquidity what we saw there was the banks

made a lot of progress building liquidity, building the uninsured portion, but we also did see downward revisions to earnings estimates, and certainly that's a headwind for the group. >> let's talk about macro situations when it comes to the banks, especially in the united states i want to talk about one thing do we have too many banks? we had one guest who said we have nearly 4,000 u.s. banks in the uk, it's 300. and is there a declining sentiment when it comes to the space? are you seeing a rise in short interest that might be playing a part >> to handle the first question, when i started at kbw 20 years ago, there were 20,000 banks what we do on average is lose 3% to 4% of the banks every year due to traditional consolidating. you're right the u.s. has more banks than any country in the world in terms of the short selling,

certainly sentiment is pretty poor and i think with respect to the headwinds, there's a hard bull -- aside from valuations being inexpensive, that's a tough catalyst we see numbers going down. numbers are leading into the group because they really don't have a catalyst aside from inexpensive valuations. >> pacwest has 18% short interest give us a sense. if you see that continued short interest elevation, what could it potentially mean especially if we don't see any short covering >> well, you know, pacwest is trading at 35% so the market's telling you here that they're concerned about a variety of factors i think, number one, they're concerned about the balance sheet. but they made a lot of progress in the quarter and the stock rallied pretty nicely after the quarter. they're worried about the dividend i would expect a dividend cut this week. in terms of overall sentiment and -- the group is pretty challenged right now. >> all right certainly something to watch

looking at the kre this morning, down about 1.5%. thanks for being here. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know today, and gearing up for a critical trading day ahead with the fed set to issue its ratest late decision. victoria hernandez, she lays out the moves to make with your money. much more "worldwide exchange" coming up right after this

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all right. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time now for your w.e.x. wrap-up. we start with short selling hindenburg research taking on carl icahn, accusing icahn enterprises of a, quote, ponzi-like plan, seeing his net worth fall by more than $10 billion. investors pricing expectations for rate hikes by the fed and the ecb and the

impact those will have on the global economy and fuel demand. oil coming off its worst day since january. shares of starbucks under pressure despite top and bottom line beats for the most recent quarter. the company's newly minted ceo sticking with howard schultz's revenue forecast despite street expectations of a boost. a similar story for amd despite earnings and expectations for the first quarter. it issued guidance below analysts' estimates. ford confirming it expects to lose about $3 billion from its ev operations this year, announcing yesterday it would cut the starting prices of its mustang mach e by thousands of dollars. and co-found irs of ghouler and deepmind, linked inlaunches a new ai chatbot we're gearing up for the trade day ahead.

adp snapshot on the private sector on the earnings front, there will be reports. at 2:00 p.m. we get the big fed decision followed by jay powell's news conference at 2:30 p.m. cnbc will have coverage of both. let's find out the moves you need to make with your money on the trading day ahead. we're joined by victoria fernandez. great to see you. >> good morning. >> victoria, every day we ask wall street's brightest minds to describe what they believe the trading day ahead is what's your word of the day? >> i think my word today is muddled. you just have a very muddled environment that we're sitting in today you see the bank crisis continuing to have its tentacles in the market. you have the fed meeting today, the ecb meeting, the rba raise

rates yesterday. there's a lot of confusion in the reports coming out gdp coming out earnings doing a let ele better than expected. to me it's a muddled environment, which means you have to be very choosey when it comes to what you're doing in your portfolio. let's assume a quarter point hike, a pause after. where do you start to put money to work? >> when you look at what's going on within the market, you look at the breadth of the market, which has been quite disappointing as of late and some of the factors leading the market quality is leading the market, more of the defensive nature is leading right now. for us, you want to have some of that defensive components in your portfolio, but with a little bit of sickically cattle because the consumer's still doing pretty well. so we would look at names that have some of that defensive posture like health care, like a cigna name i think you can do that. you can go into some of the tech

names that are not the high-flying names but a name like qualcomm or cisco i think those are some of the names you can go into. staples as well, like a coke or a pepsi. but at the same time, have a little bit of sickically cattle. we're looking at it a little bit from the home building side because we're starting to see housing pick up a little bit you could look at a llowe's or cap. be choosey and make small moves. >> you don't want to swing for the fences what's coming up in the future that's making it a little bit tentative, and is the fed decision going into balancing your decisions that you're making >> it's interesting, yes the dead ceiling has added a lot of liquidity to the market, which a lot of people may not

realize. because the treasury has pulled out, lots of liquidity has been pumped in. as we go through the debt ceiling issues, that liquidity is going to come out of the market and we'll see the market come back. the s&p fell 13% following the finale of the debt crisis issues back in 2011 so i think there's still quite a bit of volatility we have to go through. debt ceiling part of that. 500 basis points that have to continue working themselves through the market and look at where the negative seasonality is as well lots of items that can cause concern. >> victoria fernandez, great to see you. great to have your insight. before we let you go, green across the bore. the nasdaq doing the best. all three up fractionally. we're about eight hours away from the fed decision. we'll have full coverage on cnbc that's going to do it for "worldwide exchange.

we've got "squawk box" coming up next thanks for watching. how do we show strength and stability? (eagle call) a mountain? a tree weathering a storm? (thunder) lions? nope. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. (seth) not to brag, but i just switched to verizon. (cecily) wow! (seth) and i got to choose the phone i wanted. for free. (cecily) not that you're bragging. (vo) switch and choose the phone you want, like the incredible iphone 14, on us. (cecily) on the network worth bragging about. verizon

cooling off? key in numbers and analysis, friday, 8:30 eastern. good morning it's fed day again we'll get you ready for today's interest rate decision and the impact on your money. both ford and starbucks beat earnings expectations, but both companies are sticking with their previous full year guidance we'll show you how the stocks are reacting with starbucks, it's kind of interesting. pretty big loss, in the shares anyway. regional banksings the shares are under pressure again after several of the stocks

plummeted, and congressman ro khanna has more. did i mention it's fed day i love those guys, wacky group "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ all right. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we've light at the market site in time scare. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. what were you saying, joe? >> if it's 500 basis points. >> sometimes they do it in half. >> how many times have we done it >> 16. >> i want to say, why didn't you do all five in one s