consumer spenoff, which is pricing off the bell, going to be the biggest ipo of the year regional banks, keeping an eye on that, and digesting the fed been a busy day. >> apple tomorrow, right here on "overtime. that's got big implications for tech it is the biggest. >> that does it for "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now right now, it's all about the data the days of the fed hiking rates on auto pilot are over how will this policy shift impact the markets plus, eli lilly's big breakthrough their experimental alzheimer's drug appears to slow symptoms. the ceo saying this is a significant step forward the stock surging to an all-time high. and later, crude's climb, now crumbling. now back below 70 bucks a barrel starbucks grande-sized fall and the options action on apple

ahead of tomorrow's results. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money. on the desk tonight, tim, karen, steve, and dan a third day of losses following the fed's decision to lift rates by another quarter point the dow sliding 270 points the s&p and the nasdaq going lower. the fed chair indicating that after ten rate hikes in a row, there are no plans for rate cuts, because of stubbornly high inflation. if the fed pauses and higher for longer scenario, then what's next for this market tim? what do you think? >> well, this was as expected. this was -- this is a fed that's gone ten straight times. everyone knows these numbers and you have a case where you've got a jobs market that's still stubbornly tight we've had data this week that's been better than expected, and we have an economy that the fed is kind of conceding light recession. not a great environment for stocks if you look at fed fund futures,

they don't believe the fed market doesn't really seem to believe the fed, either. in other words, the market right now, i would say, equities, even with a little bull-back today, and it was -- yeah, i was a little surprised at some of that, parsing through the fed statement, there was, you know, some of it could have been a little dovish on the cut here, but anyway, long story short, i just think that the market doesn't believe the fed here and pause does not mean pivot, and i think for equities, that's a problem. >> market doesn't believe the fed, because jay powell went out and spoke to the world and didn't seem to have a lot of conviction or clarity about what's going on. and that seemed very clear it was something that i felt -- >> how could he? >> after listening -- >> nobody does >> okay, but markets don't like uncertainty. so, i'm very surprised the market wasn't down a lot more today. i think it will be tomorrow. and if you think about where some of the readings that we have as it relates to volatility in the equity markets and the rezry markets, they are really

just stock here, and it seems very odd to me if you look at one indicator, to me, that is one of the most important, we talked about it last night, crude oil. i mean, you guys tell me what's going on if that is not a reflection on expectations for growth. it is no longer a supply/demand story. i think some of the volatility that we've seen in the commodity markets, that we've seen in foreign exchange markets, i think it will work itself, and in the rate market, will work -- >> i thought you were going to say gold >> no, that would be guy, but -- >> steve >> i think steve liesman asked a couple of good questions and the other reporters asked a couple good questions. steve asked, if the fed knew that there was some sort of stress on the banks a month ago, why didn't that catch his attention? and he stuttered >> yeah. >> then another reporter asked, if in the beginning of the year, you slowed down the pace to see what the lag effects would be, why did you -- why -- now you see them with the banks failing, why do you keep pushing on it at

this point so, we have, what, 200 basis points in lag coming why would about you just wait? so, now you have 175 basis points into this meeting, now you have 200 basis points of a lag coming along to me, it seems as if any bank that fails from here going forward, he's wearing it >> and that's not even including the -- the equivalent of rate hikes that will be credit tightening >> yes >> that's two to three rate hikes, so, 75 basis points or so, so, add that on top of the lag effects, so you have a lot of tightening that is still going to be felt here. we are seeing headlines, we can show a chart of pac west, this is a regional bank that's been under pressure in recent days, it is now almost cut in half in the afterhours session this on reports that it is weighing strategic options, including a sale this according to bloomberg. we're telling you this report because the stock is moving on the back of this this is all part of the same story, though. and to your point, steve, and to

steve liesman's point, it was pretty much on the leave of a rate hike, he saw this, you know, deck about svb being in trouble and sbret rinterest rat and here we are again. >> well, why would he continue to raise because inflation is still really high. >> right >> right and his mandate is maximum employment and stability, well, the stability is still way out of whack, so -- things would have to break. so, i sort of feel like it -- i understand people think that the fed is sort of a co-conspirator, but i feel like that was their job. they had to do this. where they really screwed up was 2018 where they didn't start -- that was the time. they should have started raising then anyway that's -- this -- you and you were talking right before the show started, i was wondering, why would pac west say this? why wouldn't you do this in private, and you said, it's

other sources saying this. this is very bad for them, in a different environment, strategic alternatives is a great thing -- >> sure. long value >> exactly this hurts value, because if you are a customer of the bank, you know, that's not a great thing you want to read, so -- clearly, clearly there will be collateral damage in the space tomorrow >> and pac west had just given an update recently, and they talked about how they're deposits were up 6% from that march period to the april period, that their cte ratio is over 10% so, they had a message, like, a week ago wasn't that bad and was sign of improvement. forgetnet interest margins, but the balance sheet, the deposit base, and that should make everybody think twice about all of these regional banks. and that's what this kind of announcement does. >> right but more bank -- as it relates to the fed, when you think about more bank failures or potential bank failures, that's more stress on the system, and that may be yet another reason for the fed not to hike in june an to stay -- >> i don't think june matters anymore. i think to steve's point,

there's more tightening that's coming, by the way of just what they end up doing or not doing with their balance sheet, and so, that's a really big point. so, listen, i think 5%, fed funds and they're going to stay here until something meaningfully changes their mind about growth and that would be the thing that would cause them to start changing their interest rate policy to the downside but that will not be good for equity valuations. and to make one point about financials, schwab, i don't know what's going on, but it closed at a two-year low. it closed at a two-year low. jpmorgan is giving back all of the gains that it had this week from this supposed sweetheart deal from first republican i don't think they really wanted to buy this asset. >> they might get a chance to buy something else >> i think they did. i disagree >> that's here nor there, because there's five others that are going to go under. and just, you know, the one thing i'll just say, go back to 2008 when per unanimous key said the crisis was contained jay powell said it's possibly

different this time. so, different this time are three of the worst worlds you can hear possibly doesn't make them any better >> let's get more on powell's press conference with steve liesman. steve, there's a lot of ground -- what was your take on his response to you? it did seem like -- it struck me that that was a moment that i saw -- i thought that he was very uncomfortable in answering your question. about what he saw in that deck about, you know, regional bank stress and specifically svb. >> yeah, i think they dropped the ball on that, and that was the answer, but he didn't want to give that answer. i mean, he said that it wasn't alarming and when i followed up, how can you say that and he said he didn't say that, but he did there's a couple things to impact there the first thing was the saying that the banking system is -- is doing well, well, they've lost $400 billion of deposits in the last month, and there's no particular end seen to that. they've lost three banks in the

past month the kvw is down 30%, i suppose, or maybe more today. what i thought was interesting, i asked about the separation principle. monetary policy on the one hand and supervisory policy on the other hand if you don't mind, melissa, can we listen to his response to me on that? >> i think in this particular case, we have found that monetary policy tools and the financial stability tools are not in conflict, they're working well together, we've used our financial stability tools to support banks through our lending facilities, and sat the same time, we've been able to use our monetary policy tools to foster maximum employment and price stability. >> right, so, working well together let's look at the kbw just after the hike today it's down another 2% today you talked about zion -- sorry, pac west that was out there, zion was down big, so, not working so well together i think that's the issue and that's why a lot of people i was talking to, i've been

talking to saying the fed should not have hiked today, and now they're just another quarter point into the hole with the banking system so, i think, you know, they've dug the hole a little deeper here >> do you think it was bold of him, and i mean that sort of loosely, of him to say that -- rate cuts aren't in the cards? i mean, given that there's a lagged effect of the hikes that they've already done, there's the unknown tightening that is yet to come from credit conditions because of the banking crisis, which seems, i mean, you mentioned pac west, we're witnessing another unraveling of yet another regional bank, so, you know, the credit tightening could be even more than what we expected when we thought the banking system was sort of -- has stabilized. i don't know, it just seems sort of -- why would you say that >> look, i mean, he is not yet at the point, whatever his read is or the fed's read is of the banking data that they're looking at, the senior loan officer survey, i'm sure they see deposits on a daily basis.

they're not at a point where financial stability is chumping monetary policy. for a lot of people, i think it is there were many people -- i have people on the phone saying the fed, to fix the banking system, needs to cut 100 basis points. powell is not there. maybe not there yet. that may be the issue. but the question is, how far down this road he wants to go. with the uncertainty which he said several times, melissa, that it's uncertain what the effects are. well, from my standpoint, i think they're playing with fire here i don't want to have to report on another broader banking crisis it's one thing for banks to go down, but if it's one after another after another, at some point, you start to be concerned that there's a systemic issue here look, they've already declared systemic risk exceptions twice they had to create a new fund to le lick by wiby if i the banks and everything is hunky-dory, that's

the problem. >> steve, thank you so much. let's bring in paul. i want to know who your best student is, i want to have them on the show. in terms of what steve was just mentioning, and the notion of the unknown of bank stress in what the fed is doing, do you think that this is a huge mistake? you already thought that the fed should have paused >> i'm not sure it'sal cardinal mistake. i wouldn't have done it, but i think they're very clear about the whole issue of wanting to separate the acute phase of the banking issue and the crossic phase. and i think the acute phase, which is actually banks going down and losing our weekends waiting for the resolution, that seems to be drawing to a close so from that standpoint, you can say, it's stable, but the chronic problem is that where the level of short-term interest rates is, and given the deep inversion of the curve, it is a

chronic drag on bank profitability, reducing risk appetite, leading to a pull-back in bank lending, so i think we are shifting to the whole notion of the credit tightening taking over the lead and weakening the economy, and he's uncertain of how much, so effectively -- he does a lot of hand waiting i didn't think he was terribly comfortable in front of the podium today that's not a criticism, just an obser observation, because they are basically paused, but don't want to say that, and are waiting to see just how nasty the credit tightening is going to be. >> how many more banks would have to fail, paul, in your view, for this acute phase, as you call it, to continue, because you said that phase is probably over, and yet we're witnessing in the afterhours session pac west down 50% plus and that's on top of huge

declines we've seen this week. it feels like the same story is playing out here right now with that same sort of, what is going to happen to this bank, which is reportedly considering strategic options, including a sale. >> yeah, it's -- it's hard to make a sharp line between acute and chronic, and after first republic, and jamie said, the acute portion is over, and we will still have some more, can they be handled without us being up all weekend every weekend in which case, it's a chronic issue. but the real issue, i think from a policy perspective, and how it fields back into how they handle monetary policy, i think the credit tightening is going to be very meaningful, because even if you don't have flight of deposits in a run fashion, i think they will keep walking for the higher rate you w, which is5

on a money market account. i think chronic is going to last a fair amount of time, is going to weigh on the economy, and i think today was the last hike, and the next move will be an ease, and i think that's probably what powell was stressing the most is, he knows that we think that, and he was pushing back on it, because bottom line, he wants to see a weaker labor market. >> professor paul, it's tim. you know, you indicated you wanted a pause for this event. 345,000 jobs were added in the first quarter, fed always overstates the party are they staring at the wrong numbers right now? because that number means very little looking forward i get the sense that the employment numbers being so strong are throwing everybody off. >> i think that's right, tim they were stronger than i anticipated in the first quarter, particularly because they were driven by the half a million in january and they've been surprised that the labor market has been as stout and sturdy has it has

been, and they want it to soften, and that will be the bell ringer for them that they can actually say, yes, we paused, and not push back so hard on us with respect to the easing that's priced in. but we're not there yet, and meantime, we have this chronic condition that i think is a really tight vice on main street lending, if you will so, that's the real tension we have in the system, and i think it will be resolved in the notion that -- that tightening credit on main street will dominate and the job market will slow but you know, i have to recognize that i've been anticipating that and it's been sturdier than i think. >> you said the next move will be a cut when will that cut be, in your view >> i think, you know, sometime after jackson hole, which would put it into, you know, the fall

months, and jackson hole, and we've talked about this before, is when usually important to me, when i look out on the forward calendar, because it was last august when he gave his famous pain speech, and they tightened a pot load since that stage of the game, the economy slowed, inflation's going in the right direction, we have a chronic banking issue, so, i'm looking at august at jackson hole as the time where he can give a more fulsome sort of speech about the notion, we are now sufficiently restrictive, in fact, we might be just a little bit too restrictive, so between now and then, i think it's going to be a choppy period, and i'm not terribly optimistic going forward on the capital markets, i'm not a big screaming bear, but i'm not optimistic like i was at the beginning of the year, because the markets are not cheap right now. >> paul, great to speak with

you. thank you. paul mcculley. >> good to see you >> what do you think, steve? >> so, i don't -- i don't think he's going to cut. the way he acted, he pushed up against it, he was so stern today and he was offbase a couple of people have said that, where it seems like he was a little offbase today other than other meetings before to karen's point, inflation is too high easier to afford milk, egg, cheese, when you have a job and prices are too high than when you don't have a job and the prices stay flat for a little bit. >> we never had more people have jobs >> yeah. that's my point. he wants to break the back of the jobs market in order to say vi victory, so, he wants to push inflation down if you have a job, you can afford expensive items if you don't, you can't. i'm not -- it's not an argument between you and i -- >> look at what's happened to unemployment, right? so, are you saying -- >> hecontinues to push, becaus he's only using his litmus test as the unemployment number

so, if he keeps pushing on that, he's going to make whatever recession that we thought would be short and shallow could be deep and long at this point. >> what is your feeling about the markets now versus 24 hours ago? >> well, again, i look at fed funds, they have the fed doing 150 basis points of cuts in the next calendar year i actually think the market tomorrow, and for the next couple days could find some relief in the reality that the fed is done. i don't love equities up here on an eps earnings multiple perspective, i think the market has been a function of positioning, and sentiment, as much as anything and right now, again, i think the market has gotten, like at 4150 to 4200 is at the top of the end. coming up, afterhours action in qualcomm. shares lower after reporting results. plus, oil now below 70 bucks a barrel will prices continue to drop how to trade the moves when "fast money" returns

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breaking news on j&j's ken view ipo pippa stephens has the details >> the ipo is priced at $22 per share, according to a source

that's the high end of the range which was $20 to $23 products. the size of their offering will raise $3.8 billion in the sale, and this would be, melissa, the largest u.s. ipo in more than a year back to you. >> pippa, thank you. pippa stephens. earnings alert here on qualcomm reporting a revenue beat for q-2. the chip maker issuing weaker guidance for the current quarter as it faces lower demand kristina has more details. >> qualcomm striking a dour tone, though it's trying to diversify, the bulk of its revenue still comes from handsets and that segment fell 14% year over year. the ceo saying the handset inventory drawndown will remain a significant factor for at least the next couple of quarters management warning they have not seen evidence of a meaningful recovery in china, which is different than what other chipmakers have said, which is

why its q-3 eps fell well below estimates. they said on the call that 3 g, 4 g, and 5g units expected to be down high single dingit per essential stage. and they said, quote, we estimate a larger than normal sequential decline in qct revenues, primarily due to the timing of purchases by a modem-only handset consumer. i said it has no plans to provide apple with chips losing that customer could hurt. >> yeah, kristina, thank you we have a lot of data points from the chip sector so far. >> a lot this week >> yeah. >> so, just to be really clear apple is a 20 % customer of qua qualcomm so, we -- we have a warning on handsets that's what just came out right there, okay? we heard amd on data center, that wasn't good that stock was down 9% today the day before that, networks

down 15% that's not a small company we don't talk about it much, $5.5 billion in revenue, they were talking about weak demand from the cloud customers their customers are meta, alphabet, amazon, microsoft. you think about the outperformance that tim's highlighted on numerous occasions on the semiconductor business, that the nasdaq rallied 20%, the smh was up 60%, you say, there's something going on here, a lack of visibility here, and by the way, apple is down four bucks and it reports tomorrow night >> are you worried about apple >> yeah, i am, especially the rally it's had, up from the s&p in the last four months, and essentially within a handful of percent off of its all-time high, so -- as you pointed out, apple is responding to the android, but also the china dynamics, and saying that we see, you know, by the way, qualcomm, who has given us a lot of bad news, it's not as if qualcomm has been telling people that their business is very strong, so -- it's interesting

to me that apple hasn't ever really responded it's afterhours, markets are thin, but no, i -- you know, i -- i'm going to be able to buy apple lower and i expect that and i don't even think it's 10 bucks lower. i think it's 20% lower. coming up, shares of starbucks seeing its worst day in years what is behind this move plus, a game-changer for eli lilly. w you're watching "fast moy" verom 2 the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this. music♪ ♪♪ ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪ ♪♪ ♪seems impossible to face♪ ♪a lovely day (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day) (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day)♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business.

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falling. major averages down three days in a row now some movers from today's session. starbucks dropping more than 9% after the company kept full-year guidance steady despite a beat in q-1 it's worst day since march of 2020 shares of cvs dropping 4% after its results the morning. and etsy on the move, shares higher after a beat on revenues, earn eggs iings in line people buying the guy stock puppet starbucks. >> at 116ish, which is where i was selling the last bit of my upside calls and was able to buy that back at zero today, essentially. you know, the stock's trading about 34 times i don't -- i didn't hear from these numbers, i didn't hear from management, they kind of reaffirmed 23, they didn't reaffirm numbers out to 24, 25, where they had been a lot more

aggressive and there's only so much you can do so, great company, i'm going to buy it lower and i'm starting to get there. coming up, we're focusing on pharma, as eli lilly surges on new alzheimer's drug data. the implications for treatment and the impact on the stock. plus, apple results due out tomorrow, but can their climb tonight? we'll check in on the options pits to see how traders are playing this one "fast money" is back after this. (vo) verizon small business days are back. april 27th through may 3rd. get a free tech check and special offers. like a free 5g phone. get started today with verizon business. it's your business. it's your verizon.

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benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. welcome back to "fast money. eli lilly surging more than 6% to another all-time high today the company concluding a phase three trial of its alzheimer's treatment and finding a significant slowdown in disease progression. this getting the drug closer to fda approval this year the ceo broke down the results this morning on "squawk box. >> it's not a cure, but it is a significant step forward today with the efficacy results, which significantly slows the disease down in our study. it's a key to slowing down this disease. it's not the only thing to do, but we have a new tool today and we're going to rush it to the fda, and hopefully get full approval by the end of the year. >> here now to dig into the implications of the drug is nbc news medical contributor and former white house health policy director

doctor, great to have you with us thank you for joining us it's not only just the eli lilly drug that's going to hit the market, but biogen also has a drug it seems that the biogen drug has a better safety profile, as of the information that we have right now, compared to the lilly drug >> yeah, melissa, this is an important point. if i had to compare the two drugs, what we're seeing so far, and lilly put an incredible amount of data, but we have to see a full pact of data to understand the efficacy. better efficacy and also clearly met its primary and secondary clinical end points, and a little bit of apples and oranges, the indicators they used to access daily living and progression and clinical outcomes in the lilly study were a little different than biogen having said that, to your point, and i have to weigh the safety profile, need to see more of that safety data from lilly, but it seemed to have a higher

safety kind of flag or concern they had two deaths, and we need to explore and understand a little bit more about the details of those two deaths. and then 1 in 4 of their patients that had this kind of imaging abnormality, those are not necessarily correlated with something that could make clinical outcomes worse, but it is something that's worth flagging if i had a patient in front of me, i'll be honest, and we had fda approval, i would hope we had coverage from insurance companies, i would say that higher efficacy and depending on what i understand about trying to identify patients at safety risk might tilt a little bit more to the lilly drug but what's reaffirming in both drugs now is that we have proof that removing that sticky protein, really does seem to have clinical benefit and that's the big takeaway for me from this study and also pairing that with bee owe jen >> dr. patel, it's karen finerman thank you for being on i wonder drugs like this, with a price tag that's going to be really high. you touched on coverage, and

with sort of -- it's sort of a 35% delay, to what exactly -- what kind of coverage do you expect, what kind of push-back to you expect to get on coverage here >> yeah, karen, this is -- look, this is my old kind of policy backyard, thinking about medicare coverage, and this is -- right now, on the biogen, they have what is called coverage with evidence development, meaning there's kind of a limited and restricted cov coverage this generated blowback from the patient community and some clinical members of the community that say it deserved a much broader coverage, meaning a national coverage determination without those kind of parameters that limit the coverage. this lilly study is going to put them in an interesting position. they are going to have to look at this data, the full packet of data that the fda is looking at, and it seems incredibly compelling they should expand coverage and take away that coverage with evidence determination. just given what we saw with -- as, to your point, meaningful

clinical outcomes, again, weighing the safety risk, meaningful clinical outcomes that really do translate for my patients this translates to years of independent living that's something that every payer is going to consider interesting point on the dosing of lilly it was done as a one-year monthly infusion chair dosing. that might seem attractive, you are one year and done, compared to the biogen drug, which had longer dosing intervals, but we're not sure if that one-year is enough and if some of that plaque could come back these were early alzheimer's patients so, not a solution for everyone, but a huge opportunity and positions lilly in a way if you think about its portfolio, it's really taking an attack on some of the biggest chronic diseases in our globe >> kavita, thank you >> thank you >> for more on what the drug trial results mean for the stock, let's bring in mohit bansal great to have you back with us

you know, the last time we spoke, you were saying that this is not part of your model, these alzheimer's upside, so, when you see a six-plus percent pop in the stock, what's being priced in there's significant unknowns that we have here still, particularly when it comes to the safety profile and we won't know the full results until july at an alzheimer's conference >> thanks for having me here so, what i said was that it is not a big part of our model, our model had about 10% to 15% valuation associated with alzheimer's. and i think the data today definitely better than what we expected we expected the efficacy to be somewhere in line with biogen's data, and safety to be similar to what we have seen today so, efficacy is clearly better, so -- we are not surprised by the move, we published a note this morning, saying that the stock could be up 10% on that, so that's the -- and like dr. patel pointed out, the most important part here is that

insurers provide coverage. and now, we have two impo important -- two drugs out there that both show benefit to these patients and they are the same class, so, cms, it's just a matter of time, cms will have to find a way to cover these drugs. >> it is interesting to see the stock reaction when the lilly news crossed biogen sort of took a stutter step on the thinking that if lilly's efficacy was better, that would be the winner here, but actually, as you mentioned, this actually bolsters the case for coverage of both, so in this kind of scenario, where the efficacy is better, but it actually sort of proves the biogen drug's efficacy overall, and also improves the chances of reimbursement overall, how do you sort of view the two >> so, we do not see these two drugs as either/or the opportunity is much bigger you are talking about more than a million patients out in the u.s., and then globally, even bigger this is a market, and even if

you compare the profiles of the drug, on efficacy wise, really looks wise versus biogen, from the safety, biogen has an advantage. it would be up to the doctors what they want to use for their patients, and it's a big market, and for markets like this, you sometimes need more than one player in the market >> so, when you look at -- just talking about the efficacy of e l lilly versus biogen, but correct me if i'm wrong, the side effects seem a lot worse, or -- i don't want to use a lot, seem worse with lilly, eli lilly at this point, so, when you look at it where out of the box, where you said, it's not either/or, but when you look at it from that standpoint, does eli lilly seem like a less beneficial stock to you going forward, let's say in the next six to eight months >> not particularly, because

efficacy and safety are two things, but as dr. patel mentioned, there's an important element of lilly's drug is that is, in this particular trial, they were using finite dosing. 12 months, 18-month dosing for some of the patients 70% of the patients were not being dosed for more than 18 months here. and that's an important element, because if i'm a payer, there's a drug which i need to take forever, versus a drug which i need to take for a finite duration, i would probably save more money with the drug that is finite duration. so, overall, there are so many different aspects of these two drugs, which come into play, and that's why we look for both of them to be similar besides, there are other catalysts for eli lilly, so competition running an obesity trial, and that obesity trial

among obese patients, they are trying to figure out if that drug shows benefit on ca cardiovascular end points, and if that turns out to be positive, that would be a big deal formounjaro they are not just weight loss drugs, they can be improving the cardiovascular risk for patients >> so, you know, if you look at the 12-month performance, these stocks are pretty much tied year to date. lilly clearly wins so, which stock hair more upside in your view would it be lilly? >> so, at this point, i think -- at this point, in our value price, i think it is bis buy jon for now, but a lot depends on the select obesity trial, because that is something that we do not have in our model. ultimately, if this -- it's an opportunity for obesity is much bigger than what we are predicting, that could be a big upside for lilly, but biogen is

mostly alzheimer's at this point. >> mohit, thank you for joining us >> thank you >> that was a would you rather >> he played it well >> he did. >> what do you think >> long eli, but i agree i think biogen is the better call seems to me, what's interesting, though, he said, and we kind of asked him about where the optionality of alzheimer's was for lilly, and he was saying, you know, therefore it wasn't really in his model, it does seem to me that there will be upgrades based upon this and that's not a big revelation on a day like today, but when you consider the addressable market, that's really what analysts have been playing with on their base case, bull case, and bear case. i think lilly is almost priced to perfection, but i don't know what the analyst community is going to do. >> i think a lot of this is going to be on coverage. and if i think about ozempic, to me, those drugs are so powerful, because, we talked about this a

number of times, they can maybe prevent you from needing a number of other drugs, where as great as this alzheimer's is, and i really care about this issue, that doesn't have the same sort of knock-on benefits for cms or whoever is insuring i don't know what to make of that. coming up, we're keeping an eye onzillow first, apple, the last big name to drop results can the granny smith gains -- >> geez. >> or is this apple poised to far fall from the tree how the options traders are playing it when "fast money" returns. at nissan, things are different. they design cars that look like swords... (engine accelerates) gladiators... the future... ♪ or... wow. nissan knows what thrill looks like.

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do not miss the ceo of airbnb tomorrow. brian chesky join, us to talk about the company's growth plans, right here on cnbc. meantime, shares of apple falling. tomorrow, the check giant reports earnings the company previously guided toward a revenue decline thanks to slowing sales it is also expected to announce $90 billion in share buy-backs and dividends. options traders feeling bullish ahead of the report. mike has the action. mike >> yeah, apple was the fourth-busiest single stock option that we saw today

trading 770,000 contracts overall. right now, the options market is implying a move of about 4.1% by the end of the week, after a report that's in line with the last eight reported quarters the busiest contracts were the may 180 calls that expire a week from friday. we saw about 55,000 of those trading, those were trading close to 9d0 cents. we saw some blocks as close as about 8,000 contracts. my guess is, the buyers of these are doing a fomo trade here. this thing is just about 8% below its all-time highs and we've seen revenue and eps declines i think this is a cheap way to play for upside, because i think we're probably at the upper end of the range right now >> mike, thank you mike khouw fomo, or mabe it's fear of banking crisis we were just taufking about pac west down 55% right now, we saw that bid for safety in megacaps maybe that's going to help this whole trade. >> it might. >> no. >> no, but listen -- i said this

last thursday when the aws guidance came out, you string together everything we've heard from tech, i think the good quarters that those stocks gapped up on is backward looking and it's going to get harder from here. when you mentioned pac west, all the companies are tech buyers, and that's the thing all these financial services companies. and i think that slows, too. >> karen >> ooimi'm long i've always been long, and i'm going to stick with it, though it's not a huge position anymore. i regret having sold any of it, actually, but at some point, it just gets too big, too expensive. the last bit, i'm hanging on >> that implied option activity, or volatility, seems very light. 4% i would say the only thing i'm really confident of is that apple moves one way or another by 10% to 15%. >> what? >> it just seems really light. in the environment that we are in, with a lot of these -- what do we do every night we say, this stock is trading

like a microcap. and these are megacap names. >> so -- i hear you, and -- having also just said the last block or two in the show that i think the stock's up 25% for the s&p and apple -- the flight to quality on these stocks means that the first move in apple isn't a big one, in my view. there's no way people are going to abandon the stock they could -- unless they get devastating numbers that indicate there's a breakdown in some of the secular themes here. i just think that apple is priced to perfection, relative to itself from a year and a half ago. there was a pull forward we just heard from qualcomm, we heard from other people. china is not drawing, so -- but it's not going to -- it's not going to go down, i think, massively tomorrow >> i'm long it i'm not hoping -- i said one way or another i'm hoping it's up >> got it. for more options action, tune into the full show friday. coming up, all over the move in zillow. shares are building up gains get it, building up? >> right >> we'll bring you the details

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welcome back to "fast

money. one more earnings alert to get to this one on zillows. sharing jumping after well above expectations diana olick is on the call >> the ceo said i feel quite good about progress we can control. he said there's a lot of talk about improving the zillow user experience and connecting them to products. i'll get to that in a second, but a nice beat in q-1 on revenue and addressed ebita. breaking it down, residential revenue decreased 14% due to weakness in the overall housing market that's the part he can't control. rentals revenue increased 21% year over year, thanks to strong traffic in multifamily, and mortgage revenue dropped 43%, due to higher interest rates, resulting in less demand now, zillow is getting heavily into a.i part of that is affordability tools. barton said in the release, "our powerful brand and strong balance sheet put us on solid footing as we build the housing super app and help get more

people home. now, zillow just announced a new chatgpt feature to go up in the game home searches, and of course, redfin just announced the same thing this afternoon. melissa? >> all right, diandiana, thank u the newest thing, it's the biggest fad, a.i >> i do like the quarter i like the name. i like the giant shift from owning houses to, of course, you know, doing a 180 and selling them all, good for them for doing that i like -- so, it's now a much more asset-light business. 14% down year over year on sales -- think about -- that's not bad at all, when you consider what's happened to the housing market in the last year. they are the place to go to. that rental -- that rental revenue is great that's a newer area for them and so i -- i like it. i think that hopefully, if we see stabilization and recovery, they're going to be the place to go i like it. >> i like it, too. i liked it probably 20 bucks higher, so i, you know, need to

like it a lot more from here, but i agree, this is a profitable company this isn't a company that's burning cash and in fact, they are, through some of these efficiencies, going to be more profitable than ever on a much smaller scale >> all right. te workforce visibility today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪

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switch today. comcast business. powering possibilities™. we're watching shares of pacwest in the afterhours session, down 58%. this on reports that it is weighing strategic options including a sale we should note that this move in the afterhours session is being made on very heavy volume for an afterhours six move. it's actually half the average daily volume that we're seeing traded here right now. all right, so, down 58%. time for the final trade let's go arne the horn tim? >> tough day for oil, but energy transfer partners is a midstream utility that is going to have significant yields over the next year >> karen >> yeah, so, with higher rates, i do think we're going to see more stress in credit. i'm surprised we haven't seen more short hyg. >> dan >> yeah, once we get by apple's earnings, everything we heard from the semis, i'm just not too optimistic here, i'm a seller of nvidia >> steve >> stock that i have not spoken

of in a long time, yet a still own, sonos on the chart, it's bottomed. continues to rally >> thank you for watching "fast money. see you back here tomorrow see you tomorrow morning on "squawk box. meantime, don't go anywhere, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now ♪ my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job isn't just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. i hate we have to spend so much attention to the federal reserve. it's possible to make money in th