it's supporting him. >> he also did third peloton ahead of that? warren buffett, this weekend >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. you deserve a great weekend. >> go to dairy queen "closing bell" starts right now. thanks so much welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner we have a very important interview coming up this hour. former fed vice chair, rich clarida will be with us in just a bit on whether the fed should have raised rates this week and even more importantly what it will do next in the meantime, this make or break hour begins with a big friday rally on wall street. there's your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the dow was up 400-plus points throughout much of the day now it's 600 led by apple following its better than expected earnings report and another strong employment read

the job numbers did push interest rates higher and not enough to push stocks today. even tech which is rallying as well it leads us to our talk of the tape whether this teetering rally goes much further in the weeks ahead, especially if the fed is finished let's ask professor jeremy siegel of the wharton school he's back with us. professor, it's good to see you. we have a nice rally on our hands today. how does the market look to you now in what has been a very big and interesting and important week >> the market looks very strong, scott. without question i think the bar is very high for the fed to do another increase i think you would have to see the next employment report to be very strong, even stronger than this one i think tuesday's inflation report would have to be much above expectation, and by the way, the first day of their june meeting they get the may inflation report, and that would

have to be -- i think it would have to be a triple strong in my opinion, for them to raise again. i know we just reported that james board, who has been a superhawk thinks that one more 25-basis point increase is called for, but he actually changed it, and suggested that we are in the zone of the maximum tightening of the fed, and i think that's where the market is taking its cue >> remember. bullard even threw out the seven handle for the terminal rate remember that? it wasn't that long ago -- >> right >> -- when he was talking about maybe going to 7%. the needle has moved a little bit. just let me ask you point-blank. do you think the fed's done? was it ten, and that's it? >> yeah. i think -- i think it is as i say, you know, if things really get much more, and the unemployment rate goes down to

2.31, and we continue to see commodities pick up, which i think is a low proebability, i think the fed is done. that being said, at this point, the bar is also very high for a decrease in rates. i think that would only come with a negative payroll number, which by the way, i don't think we can rule out at all in the middle or second half of this year, but certainly, you know, that -- that certainly doesn't look imminent, but that would start the conversation don't forget, scott. we are entering into the political part of the 2024 race, you know, certainly the democrats and biden don't want to go in with a recession, and he if they see those payrolls are negative and unemployment rate go up, there will be a lot of pressure on chairman powell to say, hey. listen maybe you should think about cutting those rates.

i still think they will be cut by year end, and i think more than really what the -- what the fed is saying and what the market is saying. >> do you think the fed made a mistake this week by raising rates again? >> i wouldn't have because i think there's a lot to play out with the cumulative effect of monetary policy, but, you know, it's 25 basis points is that going to tank the economy? no the cumulative effect of the 500 basis points, plus the lending restriction which, now i think is equivalent to maybe even four or five basis point heights, i think is, you know, more than enough i don't like to see 11 consecutive monthly declines in the money supply i've voiced concern about that i think we need to start expanding that part of the

credit system again because i think without it, i think the risk of recession go up, but nonetheless, no. it was a stronger report than i expected even though we had revisions to february and march. >> chairman powell this week of the banking system for example declared it, quote, sound and resilient. do you agree with that assessment by the chair? >> well, i think he was -- i think the regional banks that are in the commercial lending certainly are -- i'm not going to say in trouble, but i think their profits are definitely going to be impaired and maybe wiped out. i don't think there's a bavnkin crisis i think the loan spigot from the fed is open, but i think it's at 5% it's not like the 1% they get on deposits so if deposits leave these banks, the banks will have

recourse to the fed, but at a much higher rate so, you know, if they're lending long-term mortgages, well, as we thought first, the republic at 2%, 2.5%, and the borrowing from the fed is 5%, this is one of the problems of inverting the phillips -- excuse me. inverting the term structure of rates that as you say, is low profits. i agree with him in terms of runs, in terms of impairment of the banking system, you know, i'm not concerned. >> so if you think that the fed is, in fact, done, or at the very, very minimum, that the bar is now increasingly high to raise hates again, what does it mean for stocks now? let's just say over the next few months, do you think >> well, i think that -- i think the stocks also just like the fed is going to be data-dependent don't forget, you know, payroll can turn quickly, and what i hope is when it turns, the fed

starts thinking about, okay. let's start restoring a more natural rate let's talk about maybe increasing the money supply, credit again we've seen the last 11 months the dibiggest decline in 85 yea of the money supply which is, you know, something that i watch carefully. i hope that they respond that way. i think that certainly today, the reaction is they're done they'll respond to a downturn, and as a result, you know, my original prediction, 10% to 15% on the s&p maybe it will come true i've kind of downplayed it to 5% to 10% when i thought the fed wasn't getting it, but, you know, perhaps the fed now sees that its policy has been restrictive and will start on a more neutral course. >> well, professor, let's expand the conversation if we could, bring in malcolm ethridge, and

brynn talkington >> i think the professor is making an interesting point, and i wish i shared his optimism that the fed is absolutely done here and not planning already their next hike in june and i say that because the wage report was the biggest, most important piece of it. the fact that wage inflation is on the rise means a real inflation is probably on the rise too. >> if he's right, and dthe fed' done, is that bullish? does that make you feel more positive >> it makes me more bullish that by the end of the year, we're going to be in positive territory. i don't think we're going to get that cut that the market is hoping for, and i don't think that's going to matter whether we're in the negative or positive territory i think just knowing where we're going to stop is what really gives the all clear signal to the markets that now we can start to make our bets and actually feel good about buying into companies longer term. >> you made the argument all

along. don't fight the fed. if there's nothing left to fight, are you more positive on where we go from here? >> so i've always felt this year that there's such a wide range of outcomes and a good example today, there was a tremendous amount of short covering finally in the regional banks where you saw companies like pacwest up 80% or 85% i think we have these cracks in the system, and so i definitely think it's positive if they stop i don't think they needed to do the 25 basis points. i also think that he said this banking crisis is over i hope those words don't come back to haunt him later on because we really need this regional bank, the whole sector, the 4,200 or 4,300 banks to be solid. i think i'm still in the camp that there are other little land mines out there, and if the fed stops here, at least everyone can just, like, start doing math equations again about lending, about mortgages and not

consistently trying to do resetting their interest rates because the fed is going to overtighten. i also think i would be, you know, interested in professor siegel, the only reason i feel like they would lower rates later this year is if an event occurs strong enough to say they need to pivot. so to me, that would be a negative the markets would go lower, you know, and you would have this event. so i think the narrative of we're just going to start cutting rates for no reason is not -- is not correct, and there would be a massive event, you know, you could go to the regional banks and pick one of those. so i'm still in that cautious camps of wide range of jutoutcos and that's why i have a lot of cover calls on the portfolios because i don't think stocks are going to run away from me. >> great points you make professor, what do you say about that wouldn't the idea that the fed has to cut -- that's not a -- how could that be viewed as a positive >> i don't know if there has to

be a major banking event i think if you get payrolls negative, you are going to get pressure to cut, and the unemployment rate rising either of those two factors i think will put cut onto the plate of the federal reserve because i do think -- now, let's talk about -- malcolm mentioned wage inflation one thing that surprised me -- i listened very closely to the news conference afterwards, and i heard powell say, i don't think wages are -- higher wages are the cause of inflation that surprised me because i thought that that was his position earlier on. i've taken the position that we have to have a rise in the real wages because there was a structural shift after the pandemic, one that jay powell mentioned in his november conference you've got to have real wages rise somewhat relative to prices

to bring people back into the labor market i think that has happened. i think there's a little bit more than that happened, and i think to be obsessed with wages go up by 4% -- don't forget. over these last three years since the pandemic, wages have lagged inflation by every measure. so it's hard for me to sort of say, oh my goodness. now we should press them down even more so people are further behind there's got to be an adjustment, and yes. that will make service inflation a little bit higher, but as i say, we need those people in that service sector that accepts that, and will normalize that labor force and the labor on the good side is already under control. >> malcolm, you want to respond? >> yeah, i want to point out that on the flip side, the professor is talking about payrolls being able to come in line pretty quickly and adjust back to where they should be, but we have to also consider the fact that along with wage inflation, we've now seen

unemployment hit the lowest level it has since the late '60s rie , right? we can't just gloss over the fact that while we're talking about dire situation with lending and small businesses can't do their business, and we're also seeing unemployment continue to go downward. at the same time that the fed is doing its work, and so i think that pressure is moving against where they actually want to land which is 2%. >> professor, do you think the chances of a soft landing are increasing or decreasing i mean, you could say, look at the jobs increasing, but the flip side likes it so much maybe they're decreasing. >> you could say by the body language powell had, you know what don't forget the fed late last year probably were going to have a 1 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. so far we have had a slight decline, and i agree with malcolm that i was shocked at 3.4%

that ties the low, and let me tell you if that continues to go down 3.3, 3.2, 3.1, you know, a year and a half ago, i interviewed james bullard and he thought it was going down to 3.5% by a the end of 2022, and if that continues to go down, that would be ammunition for continued rise of interest rates by the fed now i don't think that's going to happen, but that is one thing that i'm certainly watching, and certainly did surprise me, 3.4% today. >> let's be honest bryn, the unemployment rate is falling. the fed is not exactly getting what it want when it comes to my word, not theirs, cracking the labor market it depends how much and how intent they are in getting to the point, and it may take longer than anybody thought. >> well, the problem they have is that we're still short, what? 4 million or 4.5 million

workers, and i don't think outside of california with silicon valley, i don't think unless we have some event, you're going to see some structural move higher in unemployment just because we're still short those workers, and people are still trying to hire, and so from the fed's perspective with a very, very blunt instrument of raising rates, if unemployment is their key, they will definitely overtighten, and so i just think we're in such a unique environment in the job market because we are so short those workers, but i will say by june -- by the end of june, even if cpi grows month over month at .4%, we're going to have a three handle on cpi just because of the dropoff of the first half of 2022 so i think once we see cpis in the threes later on this summer, i think that gives the fed further ammunition not -- not to move higher, and be more data-dependent. >> all right we're going to leave it there. bryn, thank you. malcolm, to you as well. good to have you here onset. professor, it's wonderful to

talk to you after an incredibly busy week. that's professor siegel. we get to the twitter question of the day does today's job report put june back on the table for a hike yes, or no head to @cnbcclosingbell on twitter to vote. we'll share the results in the hour. coming up, former federal reserve vice chair rich clarida is with us we get his take on the next steps and what it might mean for the economy. mike santoli just caught up with a long-time berkshire investor where he's seeing growth in the space. we'll do it next you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. (swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon.

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welcome back 40 minutes to go in the tratding day. a big day at that. 600 points for the dow, and let's get a look at the top stocks to watch. christie in a is here with that. chr chri kri kristina >> we saw quarter one revenues grow surging 15% today, and i talked with the cfo yesterday she said this was a turning point. it was a rally in crypto prices and cost-cutting analysts seemed to be cautious given the s.e.c. has given warning it might sue coinbase. monolithic power is giving a beat on the top and bottom line. that has a number of analysts cutting their price on the stock, and sharing the components heading for their worst day since march, 2020. you can see the stock is down

over 10% scott? >> kristina, thank you berkshire hathaway's meeting kicking off in omaha mike santoli just caught up with a longtime berkshire investor and he joins us now. what did you learn >> well, scott, this is tom russo of garden, russo, and quinn. he met warren buffett and owned the stock for most of that time. he's a global value investor in the buffett mold himself, and one of the things he looks for is consumer facing, often founder and family-controlled businesses that have these long-term, durable franchises and then he's got to evaluate when these competitive advantages are depleting or going away we talked about alphabet, and one of his big holdings and i asked him if his ai threat so search concerns him. here's what he said today. >> i have to distinguish between volatility and risk. what's the risk that -- that

google is going to lose out to chat what's the risk of that, and i don't think -- i don't describe a high likelihood. it's not a big risk. >> not a big risk to the long-term business opportunity for alphabet is what he's saying, but yeah a lot of volatility in the stock, and obviously the emotion of the moment kind of can carry some stocks pretty far from the direction of intrinsic value, and that's one thing people domcome to omaha on this weekend to be reminded of. >> i hope, mike, this weekend, and i presume it will happen at some point, that buffett's going to be asked about all of this hype around ai and what he thinks about it, and, you know, look he has at times over the decades scoffed at these new technologies and the hype around them when it comes to how they would invest it was famous obviously with the dot com bubble, and he was proven to be right with the dot

com crash. how do you think he would address that issue >> my guess is that he would certainly defer to the fact that there's a lot of disruption in innovation going on. clearly he's been close to microsoft, bill gates at times he kind of has a window on that world, and he's also conceded that he's missed some big technologicals my guess is he would say, where is it in terms of a product? where is it in terms of a profit stream that's going to be developed out of all of this consumer interest, out of all of this investment, and out of all of this buzz, and once we're there, you can probably see what companies can take advantage of it, and maybe he'll have something to say about his businesses that perhaps are bin f beneficiaries or could be beneficiaries of the technological wave, but waiting to hear an answer as well. >> mr. monger as well, knowing the two of them. looking forward to seeing all

weekend. thank you. that's mike santoli out in omaha. for more of his sitdown with thomas russo, go to our website. do not miss our coverage talking about berkshire hathaway's annual shareholder meeting it's live on cnbc.com, and it starts tomorrow at 10:00 p.m. eas -- 10:00 a.m. eastern time. up next, the former federal reserve, rich clarida here his forecast moving foarrwd, what it means for the markets. we'll do it next on "closing bet. (music) up top by the hogan ♪♪ woah (sfx) car racing -final boarding flight to wait... is that a phone? look at the performance! the graphics. that thing's a gaming machine. a new challenger!

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. regional banks rallying back today, but the sector having its worst month since march. putting pressure on the banking system for more on all of that, and the road ahead for the fed and the banks, let's bring in former fed vice chair and economic adviser, richard clarida. it's great to have you with us thank you. >> you bet >> did the fed make the right

move this week by hiking rates again? >> i think he did make the right move i don't really think it was a tough far, and i think the inflation was too high i don't think they made the wrong move. >> do you think they're done was that it? 10 and out >> i think they think they're done, you know, i think there's risk on both sides if inflation is sticky and stubborn, there could be more hikes down the road. on the other hand, you know, the labor market's typically a lagging indicator if it starts to soften. inflation falls rapidly, and we could get those cuts, but i think they think they're done. >> if you were still in the room, would you be moved by today's jobs report and wages i might add to say june might be on the table >> well, certainly i would be looking at it. if i think we had not had the disruption in banking, june would be very much on the table, but i do agree with the fed that the tightening and financial conditions were likely to get

from the banking disruption is probably going to be equivalent to some additional rate hikes. so no. i think that i would be thinking about a pause at least in june >> the other side of this obviously is why bother going another 25 as they did this week while you have the regional banking system so unsettled. you know, there's why give people yet another reason to look at what they can get elsewhere in terms of their investments, money market funds, and what have you. 25 in the big picture isn't much 25 coupled altogether to get to 500 basis points in less than a year or about a year is a lot. >> i appreciate the point, and i think if inflation weren't in the four or fives, that might be persuasive, but again, inflation is just too high the fed's overshot its target. it's not been transitory for three years, and i think that is a consideration, but i would also say that i think they are communicating that they think they've done a lot the policy operates with a lag,

so i think that -- they think they want to pause >> so the chairman said the other day that the banking system is, quote, sound and resilient. do you agree with that assessment would you have used those words given what we're still witnessing with the regional banks only two hours or so after he finished with those remarks we saw one of the regional banks plunge by some 50% >> yeah. i think the chair did what really the chair can do in that situation. factually, he is correct, and i agree with him the banking system as a whole, 4,700 banks has enough capital and liquidity, and it's profitable, but there are banks, and several of them have failed and perhaps more will be challenged that are having a real struggle right now. so i think he needs to stay on and keep that focus on the big picture, but i do agree that it's probably not over, you know, we had the comment from jamie dimon recently about something like that, and

probably there's more to come. >> you know, i find it so interesting that, you know, somebody of your stature would suggest it's probably not over there's probably more to come, but yeah, it's okay they raised interest rates yet again there's no divergence in that? >> well, again, i'm going to sound like a broken record there's excess demand in the economy. it is true that the labor market acts as a lagging indicator, so this is a challenging time in the future, there may be those who look back and say, what were they thinking? i'm giving you my sense of what i would be doing if i were in the room now. >> i don't know. i think we have been asking some of those types of questions with all due respect. what are they thinking over the whole period mr. bullard who you mentioned also said today of the bank stress, it can be managed, quote, unquote is there a point where it can't be >> sure. as i said, i think we're not facing a situation that's systemic where the entire

banking system is at risk, but yes. i would acknowledge there's definitely -- there's definitely parts of the banking system that are not profitable with the current level of interest rates and that have unrecorded losses on their books we have a process for doing that it's not smooth sometimes as we've seen, but it looks like -- it looks like that's their focus right now. >> do you think that the fed's supervision of the banks has been up to the task, and does it in some respects -- doesn't svb's collapse suggest it's not? and why hasn't it been more forthcoming in how they're thinking about their supervision and what they have done or didn't do for that matter? steve liesman asked the chair himself and i don't think got a great answer >> well, i read both the report by -- by mr. barr and i read the

gao report, and certainly to me it indicated to me a number of instances in which supervisory concerns were not elevated and addressed. i think the chair said the other day he read it and they're going to take action, and i certainly would support that so clearly something -- something did not work as it was supposed to in either the supervisory or regulatory piece of this. there's no doubt about that. >> what about the general idea that the -- and this is another point of contention, frankly, that the fed can do both they can adequately fight inflation while having enough tools in the box to deal with whatever flare-ups you might get inside the banking system. do you believe that to be true >> well, we saw the fed deploy that approach just a couple of months ago with this new term financing facility i do believe that's the case i do think though, you have to be, you know, you have to be attuned and attentive to the

data and what you are seeing, but i would say as of now, it would be in that camp as well. >> are you worried at all about a bigger credit crunch like some others are >> i think it's a risk, and, you know, we have had experiences in past cycles where tightening monetary policy and fragile parts of the banking system have delivered a credit crunch back in 1990 which -- which i remember that recession was essentially a recession tightening policy in the savings and loans. we'll have less credit availability we'll get the so-called sleuth survey on monday, and that will show tighter financial conditions, and that will tr translate into slower activity it's a gray area when it goes from being a tighter credit to a credit crunch. >> the irony in this thing and we're having this conversation, and you guys are a bond shop the bond market is at odds with the very committee in which you

used to be a vice chair of >> yeah. >> i'm wondering what rpwe're to make of that what do you make of that the fact that only a day or so ago, the bond market was pricing in or at least fed funds were putting in 60% chance of a cut in july. >> yeah. well, it's a fact of life. it was a fact of life during my time as vice chair you're correct it's even more of a divergence now i think it's a combination of the fact that the fed is projecting what it thinks is the most likely scenario markets have to price in, you know, extreme events, and obviously right now i think there is a pretty big disconnect maybe a little bit less today after payrolls, but certainly there has been a disconnect after the fed meeting between what they're saying and what the markets are thinking, and that's just, you know, those things come and go, but right now we have a pretty big disconnect, i agree. >> who's right >> right now i think the fed is

right. certainly for july, i think a cut in july would certainly not be something where i would be putting a lot of money right now, but we'll see >> do you think the fed will cut at some point this year? >> well, i think interestingly enough, the fed has indicated in its projections it expects to be cutting next year. there's not a big difference between december and january i think, look. i think if the inflation data comes down sustainably -- right now we have had nothing but disappointment or at least we haven't had a lot of positive surprises on inflation really since december inflation, it has peaked if it starts coming down, and we start to see some of what the fed has projected which is an increase in the unemployment rate, yeah we could get rate cuts towards the end of the year, but i also think if inflation stays sticky in the high threes, that the powell fed will do what it says, keep at it until the job is done, and there could be a

second leg up on rate hikes. >> how does that impact what you would view as a soft landing as possible or not then >> i think some folks equate soft landing with avoiding a recession. i think we are going to have a recession. it may be a rather mild and modest recession certainly if the scenario that i laid out for you which is not my most likely case, but in an extreme case, that's stubborn and sticky, and we get another leg up in rates, then that will not be a soft landing i would expect. >> how concerned are you guys about the debt ceiling fight >> it's a good question. 20 years ago i served as citizen treasury secretary soy so i went through one or two of these. we do think something's going to get don't be the dynamics are a little bit different than they have been in the past, but our bottom line is that the federal government is not going to default on its

de debt. >> i appreciate you joining me today on "closing bell." it's good to catch up with you see you soon. >> thank you for having me on. >> that's richard clarida. up next, we're tracking the bigge big biggest movers as we head to the close. kristina is here with that >> despite the angry teens who veat't snap up concert tickets, li nion posted a record-breaking quarter. i'll break down those numbers right after this break so i moved to sofi checking and savings. get up to 4.20% apy, and earn up to $250 when you set up direct deposit. sofi get your money right. i was born on the south side of chicago. it has been a long road, but now i'm working for schwab. i love to help people understand the world through their lens

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benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. about 20 to go until the closing bell kristina is back with the stocks we are watching as we head towards the exits for the weekend. >> yes, friday let's talk about this first. it's beating estimates and the outlook hitting the stock as

this becomes the latest tech giant with signs of slowing cloud revenue growth which is surprising live nation is heading for its best day since 2021 after reporting a smaller loss on revenues, defeating expectations it's incredibly strong for live events and showing no signs of letting up even though there were a lot of t. swift fans that may have had a little bit of bad blood. that stock is up 15%, and that's because they didn't get tickets. scott, i spent $300 on literally the last row of madison square garden for beyonce tickets the last row all the way in the back 300 u.s. >> you got to be in the building maybe you can move up. maybe you can move up. >> working my way. >> have a great weekend. >> thank you you too. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question does today's job report put a june hike back on the table? you can head to @cnbcclosingbell 's ey,tter itas yes or no the results after the break. ♪ ♪ and this is fernando, ♪

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let's get the results of our twitter question now does today's job report put a june hike back on the table? the majority of you said yes wow. 59 to 41 all right. up next, draftkings shares are soaring. what's driving that move higher? we will explain. plus, "the wall street journal's" energy is standinbyg to break down the trades as well when we take you inside the market zone. ready? so it all started when i was at a friend's party. mia, can you send me that?

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all right. we're now in the closing bell market zone. the w"wall street journal's" journalist is here, and mike santoli is in omaha to break down the crucial moments contessa brewers, draftkings surge. we teetered this week. did we find some stability today? >> it seems like it, right kind of remarkable that after this incredibly volatile week the nasdaq is close to flat, if not, sitting on gains, and i think zooming out what that tells you is that there's so many headlines about this ongoing banking crisis, but what investors really care about is tech it's apple i think you really need to follow the money there kre, the etf, it's worth about

$350 billion that's driving that market higher today. >> as long as the regional bank issue remains front and center, you're going to have volatility, you're going to be uneasiness, and sentiment is going to be hard to turn, you know, fully positive. >> i think that's clear. i mean, we are in the worst banking crisis since 2008, and so much remains unclear about how it's going to ripple through markets, the economy, the rest of the year. we just don't have visibility into how these things are going to change their lending standards, and the extent to which that pushes us into a recession. >> speeaking of, the jobs repor today suggests this imminent alleged recession maybe isn't so imminent. >> i think so many investors were expecting us to fall into a vegs within the first or second quarters that has not happened yet, and on top of that, corporate earnings are so much better than any investors expected we're now looking at a 2% decline for s&p 500 profits this quarter. that's a huge improvement from

6% just around a month ago people were expecting that. >> you think that apple per se is more important to the market right now than say regional banks? >> i mean, look at how the market is trading. when i was talking to investors, they were so anxious about tech earnings going into this quarter, and they're breathing a sigh of relief, and that's what we're seeing in trading today. >> mike santoli, out in omaha. i said, you know, this feeling that we were teetering a bit and maybe today is a dose of stability that we've benneeded, whether that's lasting or not remains to be seen. >> for sure. i mean, the market has been swinging along the pendulum between the banking issues that are idiosyncratic and systemic people treat them as if they're uninvestable, and the bond market is throwing a tantrum saying the fed just committed a big mistake by hiking 25 basis points that was yesterday it's hard to necessarily say that the broader market can stay

stable, but you have a day like today when the consumer is not seen as necessarily falling off a cliff. we're in that same mode. the last six weeks i have been saying that we've got -- likely got an earlier fed pause than we would have otherwise have gotten the issue is what's the cost right now, the terms of spending and incomes has not been onerous that we can see. it goes day-to-day, and we technically had a pretty good test of the same levels in the s&p, 40, 50. it's also the 50-day average twice in one week, the nasdaq might do a second straight weekly closing high. so there's a lot of push/pull here, but it has so far not bee the kind of action that pushed out of control at least on a multi-day basis. >> former fed vice chair clarida told me a little while ago, well, maybe the fed would cut by the end of the year, but any sooner than that, don't get your hopes up of course, then there was professor jeremy siegel of the

wharton school who it wotold mes mike let's talk on the other side >> the result, you know, my original jprediction 10% to 15%, maybe it will come true. i downplayed it when i thought the fed wasn't getting it to 5% to 10% perhaps the fed now sees that its policy has been restrictive and will start on a more neutral course >> all right well, that was about his market prediction, and where he thinks we can go from here. he does still think, though, the fed's going to cut this year >> yeah. i mean, the bond market is still at least placing its chips on that side of the probability spectrum that there will be a cut. i don't think that a cut happens in the next couple of months or at least even through the summer unless you have really bad market conditions. so it's really not about wishing for a cut or the conditions unto which you would get one. i think it's still -- you got another jobs report, two more

inflation readings before we get to the june meeting. happens next the tendency seems to be pause today's jobs number was definitely refreshing. the downward revisions for prior months tell you a slowdown story. so powell said that he still thinks a soft landing is not out of the question, and the market is at least willing to hear that possibility today. >> what are you thinking about the extreme short end of the yield curve? one month, three-month, six month, all over 5% the one-month is like a 20-year high as we wonder what's going to take place in the debt ceiling. you want to know where it's showing up that's where it's showing up. >> yes i mean, it's completely twisted up the daily moves are definitely too big for comfort. if -- even if you look at the two-year note yield, it really should not be so agitated on a day-to-day basis it shows you how there are stresses in the system

there's perceived or real ill liquidity in the market. that's all about debt ceiling and not wanting to be caught in that window when you might have a delay in payment so that i can sort of set aside, but it's not a condition where you feel comfortable about the bond market -- you would much prefer the volatility were to ease back a little bit, but i don't think it's going to happen when everything seems as if, you know, look the banking issues, the reason we can stomach them for now is because the reason the banks are suffering is because 80% of homeowners have a mortgage under 5%, and then if the banks are underwater on the mortgage loans they're holding, that's good thing for the country that all these consumers have this asset they're sitting on called a below market rate mortgage it's just only a problem if the banks are seeming to be insolvent in that context, and that creates, you know, circling the drain type activity in the bond market. >> yeah, or a problem if you are trying to move because the rates are going to get high. >> that's true.

>> have a great weekend. we'll see you with our special coverage starting tomorrow mike santoli out at the berkshire hathaway meeting in omaha. draftkings having a huge day contessa brewer with me. >> it is now your igaming leader whit comes to market share overtaking bet mgm they are growing their customer base, lowering the cost of acquiring those customers, raising revenue guidance, lowering estimates on how much money draftkings will lose this year ceo jason robin said on the call that, look the product itself is crucial. the customers lukike it they want to play it those players parlays for instance, they're a hit with the gamblers it has not yet integrated golden nugget online yet, and even that coming down the pipe could contribute more synergy. there was a lot here for investors to get their arms around there's a lot of details that might just add some juice to the fire. >> we just don't have -- i mean,

the market itself given how we are and how unsettled we are, this appetite for unprofitable companies. where is the roadmap for when they think they been profitable? >> they think they will break even this quarter. they think that fourth quarter, they're actually going to be about $150 million positive, whiches the important metric of success in gambling, but for the year, they won't break even. compare that to other fanduel for instance, is moving forward full steam ahead s caesars just reported they were positive they turned a profit it's a horse race for who's making market. >> you dropped that in there because of the kentucky derby and the betting we're going to witness this week. it's almost like none other. contessa, thank you. >> sure. >> back to you i thought mike santoli said something interesting. this ability of the market in terms of the banking issues. he used the word stomach them

for now. that says everything to me stomach them for now for how long though is the question? >> that is the big question. i think traders really need to buckle up because next week we have cpi and this jobs report this morning seems to complicate the fed's task, especially in terms of those interest rate cuts many investors are banking on that, and that's key to watch in some of the reports we have coming out next week. >> that's going to be the great debate in the weeks ahead certainly is watching what the bond market ispredicting, wher fed funds are in terms of, are they going to cut? are they not going to cut? what if they don't what if they do, in fact, pause som what if they are done from here, and what that means in the context of where the market can go from here, and what the catalysts are frankly as earnings season starts to wind down. >> absolutely, skand i think iti all about the bond market, and tend of the bond market. especially because investors seem to be, you know, bidding up here in terms of the debt

ceiling and a lot of those other catalysts that we'll have coming up in the next few weeks. >> it's cinco de mayo. that's why i see modelo and corona all over the place. you know where i'm going have a great weekend, everybody. i'll send it to "overtime" with morgan and john. our first positive day for the market in a week a big rally today, but that's the scorecard. wall street's actions just getting started. i'm morgan brennan with jon jonjon jon fortt. we'll talk to jared isaacman on his read on consumer spending. >> and we're awaiting the latest data on bank balance sheets from the fed. yes, which comes after another wild week for th