tv Fast Money CNBC May 5, 2023 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
5:00 pm
the streaming business is at peak losses. what am i investing in at this moment in time at least disney has the buffer, the cash machine buffer of the theme parks. >> and they're getting rid of "yellowstone", too inflation and focus next week, also get the senior survey >> "fast money" begins right now rngts right now on "fast" a rally on the street to close tout week. the nasdaq powering higher by more than 2%, led by apple, which added nearly $130 million to its market cap today system this a one-stop rally or broader strength in the s.e.c. now reportedly looking into how company execs traded stock in the shuttered bank we've got the details on what they're looking for. plus, getting energized. the oil stocks are some of the worst performers in the s&p this week, but the chart master says
5:01 pm
it's about to turn the corner. he'll lay out his case on the desk tonight, bonawyn eison, guy adami, steve grasso and jeff mills the stock rallied more than 4.5% for its best day since november. shares up. closed just 3% from their all-time high hit in january 2022 apple's move helping power the broader markets higher the do you closing its best gain in three months. but is the rally all about apple? seems that way, guy. >> listen, the quarter is fine, but declining revenues, again, it's what you're willing to pay for a stock that seems to be slowing down in terms of growth, which makes a lot of sense it's not an indictment on apple, it's just an evaluation. trading close to 27 times next year's numbers i think the stock buyback help now the bank cleared the help. i think that as much after a
5:02 pm
disaster as qual com was, people said, apple's going to -- they proved to be resilient that's what we're seeing today thes a great reaction, a wonderful company. it's an expensive company in this environment. >> but maybe it should trade at a premium because of the defensive nature it has in this environment where people are looking for relative safety. we mentioned this last night -- would you rather pay -- this is not a would you rath earthquake but would you rather pay 27 times forward for procter & gamble or about the same for apple in this market environment, bonawyn that's the kind of choice investors are making right now. >> i think there's a lot going on one thing that was a flag to me. you saw there was a bit of a challenge in the mobile gaming and digital advertising and that speaks to the services revenue that's really what you point to when you an i this company deserves a premium multiple or rerating if you will aside from that, i think 3% declining revenue that they have been pretty transparent about, it's not necessarily about their
5:03 pm
quarter, it's what their quarter is and the moves they're making vis-a-vis who's going on in the environment. guy mentioned them essentially being a bank now 4.25, 4% when you're seeing -- flow out they are showing resiliency in the iphone if it's not here, it's international. you have all that breadth coupled with what's going on here. >> they're talk about growth can you imagine in this environment, tim, they're talking about growth in the emerging markets and developing countries, places like india, indonesia, latin america i mean, that's all -- they're finding growth somewhere in this world. >> well, and tim cook had a big india discussion and trip recently, and a lot of analysts got on board, and there were upgrades on that alone so guy's right to point out, i just think the nature of the qual com that's going to be down
5:04 pm
20% and apple's going to be flat part of it is that, their pricing power. they're taking market share in growth markets and in all markets. and don't underappreciate the financials of the company and the dwindling share account. and don't underestimate this is coming on a day when, okay, those are their numbers. a day when we have a payroll number hourly earnings are better than expected do you have a fed that largely told you they're on hold they're not cutting any time soon this is a backdrop for a market that now has leadership from apple and microsoft and nvidia these are the biggest companies in the world and so it's market friendly as well i think part of this move today is not just apple. the entire market went higher. we had a day one, even the first post fed, and then the next day we digested that and market worse consumed there's not enough cut language in there the fed's on hold.
5:05 pm
the rates probably peaked, the inflation peaked, people are underinvested and sentiment is still not good that's why you got what you got this week. >> barclay said something in a note yesterday or maybe it was the day before to the effect of, the banking crisis seems to subside, if earnings come in decently, if things are settling down and the economic data comes in better than expected that could pave the way for a june hike when i saw the numbers this morning, jeff, i didn't think this could be market friendly as another hike would be bad for the markets. >> we've talked about this a number of times, but we should be in a mode right now where good news is good news the we're looking at a rate cut in july or some time in the fall, this is a problem. obviously we don't want to fed to run too far too fast, but at the same time i would rather see good labor market data than not. and i know maybe people might say, you're just looking for
5:06 pm
places to be negative about the labor marketing but i am looking at certain leading indicator as far as the unemployment picture goes whether it's the challenger job cut survey, temp worker employment, which is a nice indicator that was weak. my guess the labor market does continue to weaken and we see claims rise be the fed is able to pause but my question is, does that matter at this point has the fed already done too much it is too late, and are we going to see that weakening economy as we move through the rest of the year what does it do to earnings that have looked fairly positive. i'm looking at the leadership, the complexion of the market i've talked about industrials. cat, uri breaking down copper versus gold gold perking up. then this two-year yield that is well below the fed funds rate. when that happens the bond market anticipate a cut. this is all good apple's earnings were solid, but i still see things under the surface that makes me think the
5:07 pm
equity market is going to have a hard time moving significantly higher from where we are today. >> this is my interpretation of today women play this game from time to time if i had told you -- >> so you're so in my head because i actually was thinking the same exact thing. >> you lie like a rug. >> five minutes ago i was thinking about the same thing about laying off the game. go ahead >> no, it's your show. >> if i told you that apple wa going to report these earnings and the jobs numbers were going to come in where they ere, wha would you think the market >> s&p down 60 handles what was the number? unemployment rate stays the same the market's going to get crushed. we're setting up for a move to the downside, because the fed as still behind the 8-ball. that clearly would have been wrong. what's the interpretation. try to figure out what the market says. the market says wait a minute, the fed's done employment market looks great. maybe we're going to navigate through this entire thing. >> soft landing? >> no landing.
5:08 pm
>> i was in such a good mood today. don't do that to me. i can't play that game maybe on a monday you can do it. friday you can't that's clearly market interpretation i am not in that camp, but that's what it was today. meantime, the s.e.c. opening a probe into the failed first republic bank. >> bloomberg out with that report citing two sources familiar with the matter according to the report, they're investigating whether any of the team members at first republic executive team traded on information. the news comes after senator elizabeth warren sent a letter last night to the former ceo michael rolfer, demanding answers. senator warren telling the ceo, you owe your customers and the public an explanation for the decisions that resulted in the costly failure of your bank, the extent to which you lobbied against rules that could have presented this failure and the extent to which you and other
5:09 pm
bank executives profited even as the bank teetered toward collapse despite the attention on first republic, regional bank stocks did manage to rally after this tumultuous week. shares of pacwest, key corps all ending the day with double digit gains. me sis a, back to you. >> eamon, thanks, we'll see you tonight. "last call" 7:00 p.m. eastern. i'll be watching what did you think, bonawyn? >> gut reaction to have reflex reaction to yesterday. if you look at the market and look at all the economically sensitive stocks, whether it's transports, russell 2000, banking, energy, it all bounced today on the regions that guy pointed out, and if you couple that with yesterday's move, make sense you might see people try to step in and scalp a little bit on interday type of trading william that said, i think that's very different than what's going on on first
5:10 pm
republic i'm not one to kick people when they're down i think you should wait until the information comes out before pointing finningers and rushing to judgments. >> we should also note that j.p. morgan upgraded western alliance, comerica to an overweight saying so many people are on one side of the boat. it's going to take a tiny bit to move from a terrible situation to a bad situation that could mean tremendous upside for these stocks system that the case here do you see that window of opportunity? >> i think you have to be careful. i think you should manage your downside, understand what risk you're taking. but pacwest over 80% today, there you go i think a loot of this move this week has been technical. we got earnings from banks, deposit reports that said the march to april period in q-1 was stable on deposits deposits could leave at any time, and so that's the problem here that's why i can't tell you that it's over. i can tell you that i think regulators are going to come up
5:11 pm
with something, but i think on a valuation and positioning basis, maybe this is a slightly more -- something a little stronger than what bonawyn just said, hey, you had to see a bounce here i think one price tangible book covid bottom is a gfc bottom for these banks. and while i can't tell you that tomorrow there couldn't be a headline that traders are on another run, i do think this is not necessarily fundamental, and therefore i think you have had a week where you have had a chance to listen to a lot of these banks, and i think pnc is a good example of a lot of strength where i'm not saying tough race in and buy that, i'm not worried about that bank. >> all right coming up, berkshires bets we're digging into the biggest names in warren buffet's port portfolio. siding with or time to sell silver hitting highs othf e
5:12 pm
week how you should play this one "fast money" back in two goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is spacious. as smart as it is beautiful. introducing lucid air. experience the best. ♪ ♪ (swords clashing) ♪ -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.
5:13 pm
5:14 pm
have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. welcome back to "fast money. you're looking live at the event
5:15 pm
known at woodstock for capitalists. berkshires report earnings we'll bring you special coverage of the results in all of that weekend's events, including insights from warren buffet and charlie munger tune into cnbc at 9:45 a.m. eastern time tomorrow for wall to wall coverage speaking of, here's a look at some of berkshire hathaway's top holdings should you be betting with berkshire on any of these names, jeff mills, what do you say? >> so, i talked the about this during my final trade yesterday. i said i was capitulating on energy a little bit. looks sort of dumb today if you look at the charts of oxy, chevron, to me they don't like great if you look at the oil futures curve pointing to additional pressure on the commodity, maybe that's pricing in some of these mistakes by global central banks, deteriorating demand picture. i'm not totally sure
5:16 pm
i mentioned exxon yesterday, the last chart standing. chennier hanging on for dear life i'm looking across the energy complex, and i'm not feeling great, but potentially i'm giving up at exactly the wrong time wouldn't be the first timing but not feeling good about those holdings at the moment. >> yeah. tim? >> american express is the one -- first of all, if you look at the names up there, he's had a great year, and a great couple years on some level because how right he got the energy sector maybe that's yesterday's trade american express has not been yesterday's trade. in fact, around 145 on the chart. it's a pretty interesting level. i think global spend is very resilient here they nest, they reported, and some of that was a one-off op ex provision, but i think the momentum continues strong there. that's one of those names i think has lagged and underperformed and one that looks very well positioned here. >> what do you think is going on
5:17 pm
with bank of america two-year lows. >> multiyear lows trades at a trough level compared to rivals clearly concerned about the consumer, the real estate market can they compete in this environment? who knows. where there's smoke, there's fire it's been an underperformer for quite some time. i understand where warren buffet would own it valuation alone it's an incredible franchise, but the stock hasn't traded well ox dental petroleum, that's going to continue to increase. the stock has been flat lining for a while, but pretty interesting here. >> let's take you into that holding, one of berkshires' biggest holding. pumping 3% higher today along with the rest of the sector. but is the worst performing sector this unique where does it go from here let's bring in carter worth of worth charting. >> think today sectorwise energy was the best, but did very lit
5:18 pm
toll repair what is a bad week i think jeff really hit on it -- we have had a circumstance on a near-term basis where many of these charts have a rollover characteristic but first let's start with crude. crude has had this epic bull/bear period two years ago it was trading at 65 a barrel. it doubled obviously related to ukraine invasion and it gave it all back. but the important thing is where we're sort of now in relation to where we have been look at the next chart, which is the same thing, but the annotations are different. these are well-defined lows, and energy probed those lows, energy collapsed this week, oil went right to those, and we got a vigorous bounce. i think that's intraday very bullish hike action. my hunch is to be long wti crud here this is xle. this is the circumstance we do have a lot of stocks that
5:19 pm
have taken on rollover cash just as jeff is intimating, and that is worry someday to day. what offsets that is we are down to a well defined trend line that's been in effect since the covid low. my hunch is there a little overdone and we will get a bounce generally speaking in the energy complex >> carter, thanks. we'll see new just a few on "options action. carter braxton worth of worth charting bonawyn, where do you stand on energy stocks? >> listen, i think it's an interesting setup, and jeff and carter both bring up interesting points in terms a short-term i want to jump to oxy. i think that's interesting from an investment standpoint that's a deleveraging recapitalization story from an investor standpoint i think that makes sense and understand where berkshires continue to deploy capital there. >> is this the first or second "o"? >> cause it matter actually, if you want to play that game, i think it's the second "o. i believe in m.o.j.o. it was
5:20 pm
metals, o occidental and then - don't want to get two awkward. remember we used to play contango. >> we had the footage of people tangoing. >> maybe if it wasn't a friday -- as crude oil's come lower you would think it would get steeper. the exact opposite is taking place, without making your eyes glaze over, which is actually very bullish. coming up, another big week of earnings on deck. throughout may, cnbc is celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage. here's the cofounder of glow recipe. >> it's been rewarding to build glow recipe together with my cofounder sarah.
5:21 pm
it's been an honor for us to leverage our heritage and be able to story tell around how skin care should be this beautiful self-care experience my advice for other aapi founders would be to take up space. don't minute eyes achievements, ask more and ask often and advocate for your achievements you deserve to shine at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another ♪
5:22 pm
- double check that. eh, pretty good! (whistles) yeek. not cryin', are ya? let's tighten that. (fabric ripping) ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
5:23 pm
5:24 pm
i think it will be an interesting one. iger back at the helm. this will be the first full quarter, so people will be listening pretty intently to what they have to say. the chart is interesting, battling at the $100 level it's been a battleground for many years for the stock i think people want to hear about growth relative to profitability. we saw what happened to paramount yesterday talk about spending on additional content i think you're going to see a clear divergence between the companies like netflix, disney, who can rationalize content spend versus the rest. looking ahead at the earnings growth profile, i think it's a good long-term value. >> bonawyn, what are you watching >> i think the employment data tells you all you need to know in term of people looking at the consumer and employment situation. paypal and affirm are two names i'm focused on it will give me insight into consumer and merchant trends affirm, that's going to be about
5:25 pm
what interest rates -- where interest rates are and how they've impacted the demand for the loans from that company, which i think might come under a little pressure here. >> tim, i know you're watching disney as a shareholder. what are you looking for there, and which other ones are you watching >> well, on disney i think we've gotten a glimpse and a whisper on the profitability on the streaming side that's important. i think disney has more callous than people appreciate in terms of their base. i don't think they're selling off espn iger's indicated he does not want to do that they have more than enough cards in an interesting deck, but the overall strength of the parks business is starting to come to live i think the chart's interesting. it's held off really important levels back to energy on devin, they have been such a big underperformer even before this pullback some was cap ex inefficient guide, some related to asset base, and i think the worst is over there, so i like that.
5:26 pm
>> guy, who are you watching i know you were in omaha, nebraska, yesterday. >> i was beautiful this time of year. >> were you watching the show yesterday and catch the final trades because the name you're watching was dan's -- >> stop. >> was it dan's final trade? he did mention it in his show. >> so it's bad if i say i wasn't watching the show, but i should caveat by saying i was indisposed i was doing something at the time not that i wouldn't want to watch the show robin hood you say, you hate robinhood. i do, revenue's about the same, but they're losing less money each time to the point they can be profitable this time next year so you have an option here in robinhood. that's what i'm watching on the ten. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn tim seymour? >> back the mega cap tech cisco has not performed. yesterday's mega cap tech bum they report in two weeks enterprise and spend is better than people had been expects they priced that down and their
5:27 pm
software business grows. >> jeff mills? >> disney. i do think there's value at these levels and like tim said, the chart is interesting. >> bonawyn eison >> the multiples have already gotten bludgeoned so i know there's a tendency to want to step in, but i think the buy now pay later pace is going to be under pressure. >> guy >> lock heed martin has sold enough we can get back in that does it for us. have a great weekend don't go anywhere yet, not yet, "options action" is up next. ♪♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas.
5:28 pm
morgan stanley. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. doors take us places. so you bought a place. to new adventures. -oh. mwah. -planned... -and unplanned. -surprise! -they lead to goals. -for you, mama. and connect us to family. i didn't get the part. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. but i did get waiter number 2. because they know you. they can help you create a comprehensive plan for your full financial picture and personalized money management with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened.
5:29 pm
we moved out of the city so our little sophie with the right balance of risk and reward. could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch.
5:30 pm
right now, a brutal week or banks even with today's regional rebound. are options traders still running away from the sector, or have bank bulls started to nibble on these again? disney, the entertainment giant stuck in neutral the last couple of months. what will it take for the stock to get the imagine you can back? later, inside apple's monster rally. silver shining returns in 2023, and caravann's comeback. on the desk
117 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBCUploaded by TV Archive on
![](http://athena.archive.org/0.gif?kind=track_js&track_js_case=control&cache_bust=1614919285)