tv Options Action CNBC May 5, 2023 5:30pm-6:00pm EDT
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right now, a brutal week or banks even with today's regional rebound. are options traders still running away from the sector, or have bank bulls started to nibble on these again? disney, the entertainment giant stuck in neutral the last couple of months. what will it take for the stock to get the imagine you can back? later, inside apple's monster rally. silver shining returns in 2023, and caravann's comeback. on the desk tonight, mike khouw,
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carter worth, and brian stutland we begin away wild week for the regional banks the kre rebounding more than 6% today, but the group from is still down 10% this week some of the biggest losers, pacwest, western horizon, first alliance and more. mike is starting to see traders nibble at these names, mike, what are we watching >> best thing to take a look at if you're trying to get a sense of where investors' sentiment, try to take a proxy for the entire space, and that is kre, the etf that tracks regional banks. one of the biggest options we saw yesterday, traded over a million contracts. some of the stocks you just mentioned, during the course of the week we saw bearish bets especially early in the week, and some of those turned out to be quite presht. calls did outtrade puts but actually we measure positive sentiment two ways
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one is with call buying and the other is put selling what we are seeing is some folks believe the damage in this space may be done. one of the bullish bets we saw was a big purchase of the july 40/43 call spread. saw 6,000 of those go up as a single print i think there are players who think the damage may be coming closer to the bottom any way there's a couple things you need in you'd like to catch the falling knife. one is policymaker support that suggests there is going to be some end in sight. but the other is just for buyer tos start stepping in. buyer in the options and buyer in the stock, and we're beginning to see both. >> carter, how about the charts? >> that's right, an aggressive sell-off i think the technique that works here is continue to sell premium. we discussed this last weeks a group below the market but let's look at the charts and try to figure it out together. two simple charts. is this sell-off any different it turns out, than the 2019,
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2020 sell-off associated with covid? in fact, they're quite analogous. that sell-off, we know why, pandemic was 58% this sell-off is 56% it's also the sheer steepness of the drop, meanings the not out of nowhere it was weakness proceeding that gives way to capitulation. look at the second it ration, the second charmt t. we're down to a well-defined a trend line my hunch is to be bold where there's fear to sell premium, so put credit spreads. >> carter, just quickly, does it matter what the context of the move was in the first drawdown that you're pointing to that the broader markets also drew down a similar amount you know, and this time it's a little bit different because it's this group that's seeing the decline? >> well, i suppose one could say that obviously the correlations were very high during covid, right, where as that's not the
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case here. but remember, there are plenty of stocks that are down -- energy stocks and certain consumer stocks at 52-week lows. ford motor, al koa down as much as regional banks it's just taking longer. >> brian, this seems like the first sector or stocks the play with options if you want to take a flyer on a huge bounce. >> yeah, and we did see that, to touch on mike's point, the put to call ratio in kre basically went from around 2-1 to 1-1 or calls outpacing puts a little bit. so there was this shift in sentiment. i would probably play to the call side if i was going play to the upside we saw extreme volatility stock, options premium declined pretty hard today in a lot of the regional banks, not just the etf itself, but we saw that in some of the individual names as well. probably why vix and spikes in
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volatility came down all day if you're going to play to the upside, i'd rather use a call option, because i think we may have to retest and bounce around the lows before all is said and done, and i'm never one to just sort of catch the falling knife and be the first guy in. that's just my nature. that's why we probably use a call option in a lot of cases if i'm going to call upside. >> let's look at metals. silver tearing away, up more than 20% since march mike's got a trade for those who think there could be more room to run. >> this is an interesting setup that we're seeing in precious metals i know we'll hear from carter who has more intelligent things to talk about from a technical point of view. but we are of course in many of these areas -- i was looking at gold, coming close to testing these all-time highs, and it definitely feels like hwe're ina situation where i think there is a potential for that breakout that i think a lot of people have been waiting for. i think the fundamental backdrop that could potentially help make
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that happen is just what we were hearing from the fed this week you know, if rates continue to rise, that obviously is going to be a negative or, you know, inflation fighting animals like precious metals. but what we're hearing is there's a chance for a potential pause, and this while inflation still remains at relatively high levels i think if we do get that pause, that really is i think the reason and that's probably what we're seeing people bet on for that upside move i will point out that there is an interesting dynamic that exists in the options prices for the precious metal a lot of commodities, and that is we're in equities and equity properties like the indexes and etfs we often see puts trade at a big premium to calls sometimes in commodities that's not the case we'll see out of money -- we call that call skew, and right now implied volatility remains elevated some the trade i'm looking for on slv to play
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on the upside is a trade we don't talk about often it's an in the money call spread i was looking tow june 30th weeklies they happen to have half dollar strikes out there. i was looking at the in the money june 30th two and a half calls. those cost $1.70 and selling out the money call those are about a dollar in the money, so what's really going on, the extrensic premium, how much decay you have to play, is significantly less because a lot of premium on that call is intrinsic value, that reduces the decay. i think that's a way to play that for the upside. >> carter, what do the charts look like? >> we know silver, gold are doing well relative to equities on a trailing 12-month basis let's look at a few charts this is a comparative chart.
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it's not the market, the stocks versus the metal, this is the metal, silver, versus silver mi miners s.i.l. is the ticker if you want to play the miners you get beta leveraging out of these companies. but they're both good, s.i.l. and slv. s.i.l., which is the etf for silver miners -- keep in mind, three stocks -- wheaton, heckla and one other about 50% of the wait but s.i.l., textbook bearish to bullish reversal buy. >> we're talking about am, shares jumping better than expected yesterday gains to nearly 34%. but can the climb continue brian, what's your take? >> we laid out last week a risk
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reversal trade, basically a wait and see, see how earnings go, but if it moves to the upside i want to get long some that paid off, but i think where you're at right now is a market that basically felt a little bit of a bear trap kind of run today off the numbers. i would have expected given the low unemployment rate that people be worry about interest rates moving higher and that would be a doll drum on the market apple is highly correlated to the s&p 500. this might be an opportunity to take profits, whether i'm selling an upside call or downside put while i continue to maintain ownership i would probably look to it to some degree owning a put or selling a call. >> carter, what do you think >> i think we're getting back to where we were a year ago, almost sell it all. this is euphoric it's funny, i had a conversation a page one holder, that means a institution that's top 15, 20 holders of the stock, and they characterize it as a punk
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quarter. that's an interesting phrase but technically, steep, uncorrected, not in the direction that i myself have been playing for but overdone by all measures >> so you're saying to sell it all? or almost there. >> we are. what's the upside? i mean, it's going to gap again. it's got everything and everyone loving it. >> okay. carter says to sell apple. want to tackle one more name before break and that would be carvana. still down more than 80% in the last year. the "options action" has been off the charts mike, you follow this one. for fun, really. what do you make of it >> i think that's what you should be doing is watching this much like you might watch an exciting, you know, boxing match or something this is a company that still has significant operating problems, and one of the reasons why you're seeing so much volatility and why you're seeing so much
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options activity is the company also carries substantial amounts of debt. the company is over 80% debt you can think about it this way -- if the value of the whole business changes by to% this way or, that that takes out all the equity or doubles it overnight that's one of the reasons i think people are using options, because they recognize a significant risk the company faces them company, and there are other wes know about that have been flirting with bankruptcy -- companies like bed, bath&beyond this is a binary situation i see why people are playing options, especially since it's gotten back above the penny stock level. above $5, close to $9 now. >> what does the chart say, carter, live or die? >> at one point that stock was down 99% that's a hell of a feat. now here we are. it's rallied to a different level. interestingly, not only is that chart on the screen straightforward, that's a downtrend and a countertrend to
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that downtrend line. the stock closed on an absolute low today, which is to say there was opening euphoria, and then all day long it slipped and closed on a low. still up a lot b, but that's not very intraday bullish action. >> for everything play action pac check out our website and newsletter much more "options action" after this
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welcome back another big week of earning on deck, and that means a options set up for some of the big names reporting. disney reporting we understand share up more than 50 theers this year, but can the magic continue mike has got a way to play it. mike. >> yeah, i think options are definitely the way we're going to want to play it if we think about disney, think about basically the sector of which it is a constituent, the communications sector. anybody who's familiar with the communications select sector will realize this is a highly bifurcated market. at the top of the list you've got name like meta, up 100%. and then you've got names that reported this week like paramount, which i unfortunately
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was a holder of and experienced one of its worst post drawdown earnings ever. i think it may have been its worst going back to when they called themselves viacom it's interesting because walt disney is playing in some of the spaces these other companies are and in some places that are not. streaming side hurt paramount. disney has been adding a tremendous amount of subscribers and investing heavily. yielding subscribers is one thing. we'd like to see them yield company. that's where paramount fell flat they have the crown jewel for entertainment, espn, but there's uncertainty with how they're going to proceed with that they're trying to separate it from the business. are they going spin it off right now the options market implying a move of about 6%, which is what's experienced over the last eight reported quarters or some assuming we're going to
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get a move similar to the ones we have been seeing is that options are fairly priced. i think the way to play this one is with an upsite call spread. i was looking at a tight call spread, the 105/110s in june that was going to cost me a little over $1.30 a contract this is relatively tight to the stock. gives us a little bit of time to expiration i think it's going to be iffy. if you try to focus on what they're doing this quarter, i think it's going to be the parks numbers and what the investment is going to be for the streaming market and whether that sees business. >> carter what does the chart look like? >> i'm in the pair of 2s camp. this is a stock that's quiescent. gets to the downtrend line
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the charters is a coward, you go first. i'll be right behind you. >> next up, paypal, understood performing the broader market, up 5%. brian's laying out a trade ahead of the results monday. brian, what are you doing? >> stock pretty strong today, up over 4% itself there's earnings monday. it comes out after the close stock his a nice move here, but it's lagged some of its counterparts in terms of payment services visa, master cord outperformed american express outperformed it over the last seven months or so there's some breaking out to do if it can break out of trend in the roing bound area it can move to the upside. i expect the earnings growth to come in at 23%, 25%. guidance going forward, which when a stock is trading in the seen eens multiple p/e that seems cheap by a valuation basis. here's a stock that's already
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moved. maybe i don't want to jump andn and chase. i'll use options to the upside it's a vertical in term of using two separate months, to expirations. i'm looking to buy the june 70 calls for just under 8 bucks, sell a may 80 call now, this is an expiration that expires next friday, so as long as the stock doesn't sort of gap through 80, which would be quite a big move for the stock after earnings -- haven't seen that previously -- move that to the upside, i get to capture the extra dlal to lower the cost i bought in june and hope to continue to play this to the upside, because i think it's got catching up to do to some of its competitors. >> chart earlier. >> another stock in an established downtrend. don't want to speculate going into the earnings. there's risk to that and obviously great reward my hunch so to leave it alone.
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you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. welcome back to "options action." last week mike laid out a trade on starbucks before earnings shares took a nose die on results. mike, how are you navigating this one >> this is an interesting situation. a good case for using options. stock fell ten bucks from 115 to 105 right now. remember the trade we actually targeted the upside of 125 so by using options we risked less than purchasing the stock, but unfortunately because the move down was so severe, there isn't a lot of premium left in
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the cal spread about 40 cents the interesting thing is now we have new information, and basically the stock reset to a new level. i like to wait about three days after you get this kind of disappointment, so carrying into monday or thereabouts. but implied volatility hasn't fallen that much i might look at selling downside put credit spreads to help finance the remainder of the credit spread. >> brian, what would you do? >> that's not a bad strategy that mike lays out to capture premium. i do like that in general, more in the consumer staples. i think big balance sheet, the staple stock versus the discretionary where starbucks tends to fall. i think that -- maybe stay away, but at least you're going to sell a put spread as a credit spread, i'd be slightly out of the money, obviously, taking a buck or two a premium, and keep it to that. >> carter? >> yeah, pretty heavy damage,
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obviously a dropping gap associated with the earnings disappointment on the other hand -- this is important and you see it on the screen -- the sell-off leaves the stock close to its well defined uptrend in effect since early '22. my hunch is, if one is still long reck tan the longs. >> up next, your rhetttweets ane final call thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back. (dr. king) if you have diabetes, getting on dexcom g7 is ♪♪♪ the single most important thing you can do.
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td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. welcome back to "options action." time to take some tweets first fan ask, with the recent run-up in eli lilly how would you feel about fading the pop with june 13th puts? >> lilly based in indianapolis i'm headed there this we can to see some of the time trials. the people down there hate me for saying this, buying a put
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make sense, finance selling a 410 against it kudos the alzheimer's drugs looks like it's having results the weight loss drug for diabetics also good. but it's probably time to take profit market cap nearing johnson & johnson levels i'd take profits, use a put or put spread. >> next fan asks, i'm curious if carter are a mains long on amazon al earnings. >> day before stock popped to $111, sunk to $101 and closed today $104.60. but the important thing is i think the stock the bottoming. yes, i like amazon long. >> time for the final call back over to you, carter. >> silver. >> brian stutland. >> i think payypal's got catchin up to do by the call spread vertical. >> mike khouw? >> sometimes in the money call spreads are a way to take
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advantage of the dynamic of call skew i like that in gld skbrks l zbl zblxle. >> and carter said to sell apple. wasn't expecting that. don't go anywhere. my mission is simple. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a work somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts right now. hey, i'm kramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. my job is not just entertain, but teach you. call me a 1-800-743 -- or tweet me
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