valuations, so even though real economic growth and real earnings might still lag in the recession, usually the market bottoms long before those turn higher, simply because the fed is reacting, pumping markets higher with liquidity. so, we really haven't gotten to either of those states yet, either the fact that earnings estimates have been cut -- yeah. >> okay. our minute's up. cameron, thank you we got to go becky, we'll see you soon. join us tomorrow >> see you tomorrow. >> oh, good. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post known of the new york stock exchange. following through friday's rally. busy week for consumer earnings, the debt ceiling negotiations, and inflation data we'll get the loan officer survey this afternoon. our road map begins with a big week for investors the banks rebound. we'll get that latest read on cpi and ppi.

and the president set to meet speaker mccarthy plus warren buffett delivers a gloomy outlook for corporate earnings cautions that fear is contagious as we continue to watch that regional bank volatility and treasury secretary janet yellen warning of economic chaos and a constitutional crisis if congress fails to raise the debt ceiling. let's begin with a new market week featuring, as we said, a lot of data and earnings and some of these talks of the white house, jim what is going to be of those buckets, what's the most important going into tomorrow? >> i think it is the janet yellen on abc news, because there was this moment where george stephanopoulos, who's obviously a very shrewd observer, tried to press her on whether the president would use the 14th amendment, and she kept coming back to saying, listen, it's catastrophic. i don't think that she spoke for the president. i think she spoke for treasury and it's very difficult to make good investment decisions when

you have a situation where someone is trying to play chicken. david, it's not clear who benefits, but one of the things that she made clear was, listen, we're not going to play social security we're not going to play medicare or interest. that's, like, the trifecta of what you would do if you're a lesser developed country >> yeah, wouldn't be good. >> no. >> it would be chaos also saying -- resorting to the 14th amendment could elicit a constitutional crisis, i guess >> david, right to the supreme court. the republicans would go right to the supreme court, and they would win against the president. >> because that is a question i know lawrence tribe, who's a constitutional scholar, wrote an op-ed this weekend saying, i've changed my opinion he previously said he thought it would be constitutional, now he says it wouldn't be. >> they have a meeting tomorrow. and i think that the republicans came up with a, you know, very large number of republicans said, look, without any sort of

actual, real look at the budget, which is the first time they've done that, it's just been a game of chicken without any of that, we're not going to pass it and i don't understand how the president gets around that if the president feels that he can say the republicans, the reason why you didn't get your social security check. so, i think this is a much bigger game than a lot of people think. i think that that whole notion of the one thing that you don't have to worry about is based on the fact that speaker mccarthy has control of the party who's thought that >> well, it's a slimmer measure of control than prior eras, but certainly some pieces out today looking at how mitch mcconnell and mccarthy have locked arms. mcconnell saying to the white house, you're dealing with the speaker, not me. i'm not going to get involved. >> i think the speaker is a reasonable person, and i have spoken to him many times he knows the consequences here but i don't want to dismiss it

i don't want to dismiss it because as we get closer and closer, i keep thinking about 2011, and there's a lot of people who weren't in the business in 2011, but there was much less rancor in 2011 and now. the republicans and democrats didn't hate each other as much as they do now and yet, we still had that vicious s&p downgrade, which remember tim, the treasury secretary, said. it was never taken back. >> if you want to trade it all, goldman-sachs has the u.s. debt ceiling basket >> i'm trying to get -- >> it's a portfolio of delta one positions across assets, which are among the most responsive to a debt ceiling-driven riskoff move, so you got that going for you. >> i'm trying to get jason robins >> draftkings is going to set a book on this >> why doesn't he start doing those things why does it have to be limited to sports? lets me see what he says get the line >> janet yellen is going to be joining us >> she's going to be on. can't beat that.

>> starting to communicate, saying some things that perhaps will -- >> look, you have warren buffett -- >> split people or bring people closer together on this. >> why >> why what? >> if you think that you can blame the republicans for you're not getting your social security check, and the republicans blame biden for not getting it, who has a better shot at winning the presidency now, we know that the polls this weekend showed that trump beats biden. >> we're a long way from any election, so -- and this will play out long before that. >> this plays out for -- >> well, it's possible we get it, even though they have said get it extended into the fall and then it just gets joined with the budget process, which a lot of people believe makes sense. >> i just think that in 2011, we all felt, let's not worry about it, and then suddenly, it snuck up that we should have been been worried about it, and i want to keep that in mind. that's all

i think that was a terrible time for the republic we really did feel that we would default, and look, there's a big meeting tomorrow maybe the meeting goes well. but if the meeting doesn't go well, it's 2011, and we have to break out the 2011 playbook, which is, we can take this thing right to when you don't get your check in the mail. >> yeah. and doctors don't get reimbursed and they start prioritizing outflows and that would be some dark periods at the same time, jim, stifel over the weekend goes from 4,200 to 4,400 in the next couple quarters, and they say, stay with cyclicalsbecause certainl the jobs number on friday and the isms were upside surprises >> i couldn't find a single cyclical stock that had a bad chart this weekend when i went over them. every single one and a lot of them read like eton, which were like, okay, look, a lot of them are decarb eton is decarb, electrification.

i'm glad to see barry bannister. i don't know if you remember elaine, but she called the crash. >> right >> and i don't want mike wilson to do that i'm urging mike -- not that he's -- >> a lot of crashes that didn't happen, i should point out >> i think that what he has to do, he came in saying that this quarter's earnings would be disappointing. they've been anything but disappointing. why not just say, i looked at the quarters, i incorrectly predicted where they would go, so i have to rethink instead, he says, next quarter that was elaine garzarelli she would come in, and the second or third times, you would say, wow, maybe she's going to be right again and then the fourth time you realize that she just had lost her way. >> we'll see wilson's still at base case 195 for s&p earnings this year it's not just about the resulteds. it got 80% of the s&p is in.

revenue up 4, earnings down 3. corporate guidance, though, jim, best ratio in two years. >> i know. and then you have things like z scaler today which is a very good cybersecurity company where the one area of tech that people are starting to worry about, i had cloud flare on friday, matthew prince, and he was saying, yes, there is an elongated cycle, elongated being the great curse word, david, when it comes to cybersecurity. z-scaler says, that's not true and z-scaler is part of a trust where you make sure that it's you. like, i got a call today from chase, saying, listen, someone is obviously trying to be me, and you sit there and say, i'm glad chase has that kind of zero trust. well, if zero trust is doing well, then i don't think you have anything in tech that's

doing poorly >> we talked about some of the growthy names on friday. snow with a little upgrade action >> how about that? and i think that snowflake is very tied in with amazon web services so, you can rent the web, or you can buy the web, and that shows you that both short and long-term are doing quite well now, i didn't like -- i don't know if you saw dave costa's piece. >> on mega cap earnings. >> and he's lumping in a couple ones that are, you know, apple is driving, and microsoft's driving. he was saying, alphabet's driving, and amazon's driving. actually, their quarters were not good and i don't want to even pretend to say that their quarters were good >> well, then, there's the regional banks, which continue to rebound, led by pac west this morning, jumping 85% on friday, best record gain in its friday after a six-day selloff. the company did announce a sharp dividend cut friday night in an effort to boost capital. the ceo says, "our business remains fundamentally sound. then, there was buffett over the

weekend, warning that fears contagion when it comes to banking turmoil. that's a message that he delivered at berkshire's annual meeting on saturday. >> if you have people that are worried about whether their money is safe in a bank, and all trying to withdraw it, you can't run an economy very well here we are in, you know, 2023, and we actually see the fdic payoff with 1 hundred cents on the dollar to everybody or make it available on all deposits and yet you still have people very worried. that just shouldn't happen >> maybe that's why piper, this morning, jim, says, "please, congress, raise the insurance limits, and to the s.e.c., put a finite short-selling ban in place so congress can do that. >> i thought that the first is good the second, people have always rebelled against the idea of a short-selling ban, because there's always a way to get

around it. >> they don't work that well at least history would show they aren't particularly effective. at some point, the ban expires >> what happens is that right now, you're not even -- there's not even short-selling of the individuals. it's short-selling using the etfs >> but to the point, the deposit outflows don't really seem to be occurring at this point as much as it would be the volatility in the stocks, particularly the downdraft we saw much of last week that can lead to a lessening of confidence. now, that can have a reverse effect, and you know, we saw very strong rebounds on friday, and perhaps we're going to see more today >> look, i think that this is totally a kre. you get the etf. one of the things i hate a short-selling ban. if you remember 2008, 2009, everyone got around it by saying to the brokers, listen, could you create something that looks like that? and i'll bash it here you have the kre, the etf

that has these, and you can bash it so, you may think there's no -- you can't short sell, if they do a ban, but everybody gets around is short sell ban. what you have to do is make it so that there's a lot of protection i have been calling for the -- i've been calling for the fdic to offer individuals and individual accounts insurance, so if you have $800,000 in zions, for a fee, you can insure it >> this is what you talked about friday night >> right and there's nothing that says they can't and i was dealing with someone from federal home loan bank board who suggested it to me this is just something where you could easily say, i happen to have more than $250,000. i could divide it among four banks. you have a million dollars divide it among four banks say, look, i'd just like to take the insurance, and no one's saying this can't be done except for martin, who runs the fdic, has been singularly uncreative i think that's fair.

>> yeah. he's come under some criticism, perhaps. i don't know if it's lack of creativity >> well, i just think that you have to do something you want to keep this thing up where we just pick bank after bank and take it down? >> that said, many of these stocks are going to trade on future profitability the fact may be that some of them are undercapitalized, that they haven't really taken the marks,and if they were to, we know what that would mean. there's the worries about commercial real estate 65% of commercial real estate, national bank leddnding is from national banks all commercial real estate is not kuwcreated equally. office space is very different from warehouses, but nonetheless, that's something there's going to be a continued focus on the earnings power of these banks that are paying a lot for deposits and not getting a lot in their assets, that will continue to be a concern in the market >> right, but look -- >> maybe it's been reflected already by the significant downdraft we've seen in some of these bank stocks. >> the image, you have warren

buffett, available for sale, and you had charlie munger, hold to maturity, so you have three different problems you have what they actually did with their money, with the deposits, take them all in at once and put them in the wrong place, perhaps then you have the credit, which is not sure. that's commercial real estate. and then you have the where -- how many of the deposits are actually insured what percent and these are three different variables, and they're just flying around, all three of them are different, and it depends if you have, like, the first horizon, which the deal broke down, they have good in all three. and yet, that's the one that broke down >> yeah. we'll see what the loan officer survey says today, because loans of commercial banks, up four straight weeks we haven't seen the crunch yet, at least in the high-frequency stuff. >> we absolutely haven't >> take a look at futures here we'll get to some of the sell-side calls today, research on disney, xpo, five-part bond offer out of apple today getting somettti, aenonpeloton.

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apple, you know, has a position with consumers where they're paying, you know, maybe they paid 1,500 bucks or whatever, maybe, for a phone, and these same people pay $35,000 for having a second car. and if they had to give up a second car, or give up their iphone, they'd give up their

second car it's an extraordinary problem. we don't have anything like that that we own 100% of, but just happens to be a better business than any we own. >> that's buffett raving about apple at berkshire's annual meeting over the weekend, jim, and now we're watching this bond offering, wonder if luka is going to bottom tick rates again. >> they love to buy back stock by the way, they have a buyback that's very good they don't just -- you don't just give it to goldman and say, do what you want, which historically, so you know, people who do that, managers who do that, and i know many good ceos do that, that's a terrible way to do a buyback, because they just short it, and then they profit off of it. now, you know, i've said this very often, and i did these buybacks the pressure that you're under to do a bad job at the firm versus the good job for the client is something worth mentioning but i thought that that was most important when i listen to what buffett said, and then you go translate to the services

revenue, the company's -- think about what apple has what is the cost of acquisition of a new service versus if you were time warner, warner brothers, which they did a very good job we didn't talk about that. paramount was mentioned obliquely. the cost of services is zero everybody else has a huge cost of acquisition think about the cost of acquisition of any company that does a streaming service and what is this -- what is the cost of the streaming service >> you mean, because of the installed base >> right >> interesting piece today about how e.m. is an increasingly big piece of the puzzle. we've got cook in india, supply chains are migrating >> well, i mean, if you add up all the countries that he talked about, you have about ex-india, about 250 million people you add india, 1.4, you get into a situation -- you could argue this is just -- i'm using

facebook number versus them. you could actually get to -- you could easily get, by the way, to 2.3 billion that is just being tapped you know that facebook has 2.9 so you're talking about an easy 600 million. what they were really saying was, stop thinking about china, will you start thinking about where we're -- >> you're talking about just moving into android's part of the world and just -- enemy lines. >> yes and when you have 99% satisfaction, speaking to someone who used to run a great teleco company you're offering a product that is not sticky but permanent. and permanent means you can put through all these different services, and people are going to take them, and the cost for the services, to make acquisitions, zero boom greatness. greatest consumer product of all time, and it's a tech company. by the way, tim cook does not like you to call it consumer >> what does he want you to call it >> a tech product. but sue decker, the lead director, called it a consumer product.

>> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell obviously, a lot to get to on an important and interesting week one more look at futures ahead of the opening bell in about nine minutes when we come back dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-376-4376. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio.

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all right, let's get to a "mad dash. you may have seen estee lauder in the middle there, those potential gainers before we get started with trading, about six

and a half minutes from now, let's go to estee lauder, because you and i both know mr. peltz fairly well. i'm curious as to whether you have heard anything, because the "new york post" has reported he at least is looking at it, i guess, as a potential activist play, this after, of course, the significant fall that happened late last week after earnings. >> i have hate to take a stock apart that my trust owns, and i spoke with the company last week they had a terrible quarter. i mean -- and they didn't see it coming but nelson peltz says it's absolutely untrue. >> not true. >> not true. by the way, it's a controlled stock. you would have to have the 90-year-old mr. lauder say it's for sale, but that should be repealed rather quickly, and should fabrizio fredo lose his job? the family loves him, so it would be quite a departure after a very good run, by the way,

that they suddenly would turn on him after seriously one bad quarter. the quarter was terrible, and the quarter was terrible because the company was captive to a group of -- they do a lot of duty-free, and the largest one in asia, basically, said, listen, we need all the product you can get, and then they got it wrong so, it really wasn't so much fabrizio's fault he's been a very good manager over the years but the idea that nelson somehow is involved, the answer is, no >> the answer is no? all right. that puts to rest that "new york post" story. on the fundamentals from here, though, jim, is it still something -- again, you owned it you suffered that decline. >> i still own it. fabrizio in the conference call said that this quarter will be tough too. there's big inventory problems i think that they -- it's only area -- everywhere else was good i don't think it was their fault. i think there was a sense -- we've seen this. china opened, but not for everything it opened for macao, but it did

not open for some parts of export, and we've seen that, some portarts of tourism. why did the tourism not come back was it because everything was booked up? we don't know, but the travel, cons duty-free was very poor. it's a principal outlet for him, and he blew it, but i don't know how much he blew versus the customers got involved >> you heard it here not happening with e.l we're going to have an opening bell four minutes from now don't go anywhere. our customers don't do what they do for likes or followers. their path isn't for the casually curious. and that's what makes it matter the most when they find it. the exact thing that can change the world. some say it's what they were born to do... it's what they live to do...

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. jim mentioned estee lauder before the break, and there's an interesting piece in the "ft" today about where the rebound is china is, because qualcomm, e.l., starbucks, hilton, colgate have all said, we're not seeing it quite yet >> i'm glad you mentioned hilton when i read through what -- what are the chinese people doing the answer is -- there's two areas that it's good

banking and construction and they are seeing definitive construction that's otis seeing a basic pickup, but it has not extended to the consumer. we have know that the consumer has gone to macao, but we've been struggling to see what the chinese consumer's really doing, besides gambling i don't think they're doing anything else. so, i mean, and by the way, estee lauder was really shocked, shocked that they weren't doing -- they were all set for that consumer, and it just didn't happen. so, i think that the chinese consumer has been very difficult to gain here so, stay away from it. interestingly enough, commercial real estate is doing well. >> there's the opening bell in the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board today, financial services company dtcc celebrating its 50th anniversary. at the nasdaq, it's nasdaq ventures, a venture investing program as we're back to 4,140

we mentioned on friday, jim, had 4,150 had gotten defended a couple times in the last couple weeks. >> yeah, i think there's, you know, i go back again to what costa said, and i love costa, but there's been a definitive move in a lot of these consumer product goods, that they have been really fantastic. housing's been great and against that, what's been, let's say, equivocating would be retail just hasn't reported yet but anything that's heavy equipment. i had cummings on last week. they're a company that covers lots of different areas. the two areas that i think are unclear is low-end retail -- no, retail department store and oil and gas. oil and gas, because the pricing, year over year, is dramatically down. so, otherwise, i think that things are okay. those who try to find faults in this economy have to look at individual stocks, not at

groups >> yeah. i mean, speaking of -- and among the resilience, if you're in the resilience camp, you had the jobs beat, ism, and then you have oil up almost ten bucks >> right, that has to continue because gasoline's down more than a dollar from last year we do have the cpi, and that's important. but what's also important is the cpi is rents and rents are up and rents are intractable. there simply is a housing shortage the people over the horton call and the lunar call, it's just over and over again, shortage, shortage, shortage so, that's been the one area where we've not been able to get enough apartments built. it's just -- it can't -- they can't get enough homes and enough apartments. there's this whole other area. airbnb reports this week doordash i thought doordash did fine. don't forget uber was good there's just a lot of the newer companies that are doing quite

well, so i don't know. i keep trying to find, where is what people think is the weakness health care was on fire last week health care. medical device except for talent >> except for talent, yeah we had the kenvue ipo, which did quite well >> very well >> you mentioned cattle, a company that's coming to my world because it's been thought of as a takeover candidate for those who don't know, they basically help a lot of the pharmaceutical companies, biotech companies, even consumer health companies develop their ucts and manufacture them. and they do that with, i think, 50 global sites around 80 billion doses of nearly 8,000 products annually, is what they do you can take a look at the stock. this is the second large downturn in that stock there had been a report some time back that perhaps danaher was interested in acquiring it that was a bloomberg story

dan danaher indicated, no, they were not interested, which there were many takeover stock traders who believed that at some point, given that they like to buy cheaply, that they might want to come back for it then, you get this today, which follows on something we already heard from the company back on the 14th of april. essentially, in the course of finalizing its financial statements for the third quarter, they identified certain potential noncash adjustments related to operations of bloomington, indiana, and will need more time to review that matter, and then they go on to say, when combining the operational and productivity issues, the prior forecasting challenges, and less significant potential noncash adjustments, they expect to reduce both its fiscal 2023 net revenue and adjusted ebitda by more than $400 million the last time, well, the 14th, it was sort of $150 million to hit is what we thought it was to ebitda and so, the issue seems to have gotten worse, incrementally.

it's not good. and so, the question becomes, what now, jim, for this company? given, again, it's no longer thought of in that way now the question is -- they got rid of the cfo last time, at the last announcement, so there is just -- >> well, danaher has a lot of dry powder, and they're doing a spinoff of a filtration company, but danaher is perceived, and i just don't know why they would want to associate themselves with a company that i think there will be questions about integrity. >> yeah. >> and that's a harsh charge, i know >> it is management went on to say they're confident their recent operational challenges are temporary and addressable. but again, the market doesn't want to hear that right now. and this is hurting in a lot of -- as i said, those who speculate in terms of what might get taken out, because there had been a belief there might be some consolidation involving catalent i believe they had an advisor. there may have been something with danaher at one point, but

given the damage that's been done here, it's hard to imagine. you got to wait and make sure they get their house in order to some extent. >> the profile did fit my travel trust owns danaher, and danaher did not predict correctly. it's kind of like estee lauder they didn't predict correctly that there would be such a decline among their clients. their clients are biotech companies that are well financed and buy machines there was one biotech deal last week, first one in a long time, but there's a slew of biotechs that never raised enough money to continue to buy product from danaher. that's why they missed and i come back and i say, holy cow, danaher, estee lauder, usually these companies have a great handle on their customers, and both failed. it's rather amazing because these are very good companies. danaher is a fantastic company

estee lauder is interesting enough i speak to nelson. there's -- he doesn't really want to go after two class stock situations >> you typically stay away, from, not always, we have seen some activists come after control companies. in fact, trion took a position on our own parent company, comcast, so sometimes they will, but -- >> but they recognize the futility of it david brings up a cable company, and there was this considerable amount of time spent on whether warren buffett still owns paramount this weekend >> i know. we thought we might hear from him, given that terrible day paramount had last week after it significantly cut its dividend from what was 24 cents to 5 cents. we had talked about that significant outlay of cash, particularly for a company that's suffering negative cash flow right now i don't know if we have the

sound from buffett on paramount. he didn't have that much to say, other than, let's just paraphrase it and save people time it's a competitive industry. >> well, yeah, there you go. i also felt it was like when he made the bet on arirlines, u.s. air, like, well, you know what, entertainment is not a great thing. >> we didn't get a lot of single stock discussion, other than oxy, which is down a bit today tsm, a little bit, and apple >> tsm was very interesting because he talked about morris, the man who built the company, but then basically he's been liking japan he put a lot of money in japan >> says they're not done in japan. >> japan is very interesting, because it's very inexpensive, but at the same time, there's never been a catalyst in the country. >> there's one of the most important companies in the world, i think it's safe to say that, right, jim >> oh, yeah. >> one of the most important companies in the world forget the market cap or anything else. when it comes to the economy, when it comes to, i mean -- >> think a.i >> think nvidia's chips and what

that means for so much going on in the world and where they're made >> well, i'll tell you, it's funny you said that, because jensen huang is giving the keynote live at computex that's going to be in taiwan in, and it's going to be another one, may 29th last time he spoke, it was just breakthrough, and the whole group ignited. i think it's going to be the same >> that h-100 chip you've talked about, of course, that powers the latest large language models for artificial intelligence. and is extraordinarily expensive, because you have to buy so many of them to get the actual power if you want to do that >> one was $45,000 on ebay when i went to the -- >> these are companies buying thousands upon thousands of them, not the chinese, by the way, that are prevented from buying these highest-end chips >> they're not allowed to. alphabet is a customer we know that amazon. the thing that's so interesting is that i went in and i said, listen, does it really cost

$45,000? i was hoping they would say, for you, jim, it would be. >> good price. >> do you need an h-100? you want to put one in the house? >> i thought an h-100 would be terrific i have an apple thing that plays music. >> a little h-100, you're all set. >> i'm waiting for more generative a.i on the apple call, you didn't get a lot of generative a.i. >> it's all i hear about virtually every day is people just talking about the newest, the latest thing you can do with chatgpt, what it's going to mean and the next iteration of what that's going to bring. there's something called a prompt engineer. this is a new job. a prompt engineer. somebody who can effectively prompt chatgpt rapidly, accurately, to get results more quickly >> and do you think anything of what buffett's -- what charlie munger was talking about, what they prefer? >> human intelligence? humit is what they call it in

the cia. i like the kind that you can take -- my wife said, please do not say "take jobs." do not do that come up with another way a lot of people say, create -- like sue decker, whom i just think is terrific, lead director, talked about how it can be more productive >> yep >> we had friday, the things it will do to productivity are akin to what electricity did or the advent of the pc >> or not internet >> wow >> we were mentioning the dow. disney is leading. morgan stanley goes to $120 and they report on wednesday >> i found this painful. my travel trust owns it, i was just praying that there would be no one who says anything before iger speaks, because iger -- this note that's moving and is basically saying, look, there's going to be some positive things that are cost cut. cost cut is not what we want we want revenue growth >> yeah. >> we don't want cost cut.

by the way, speaking of revenue growth, jason robins from draftkings assures me that he is asking the government to be allowed to make a book on, say, the debt ceiling, but they don't have approval. what >> well, what are you wasting time with that stuff you got so much to do. really you're going to talk to draftkings about making book on the debt ceiling is that really something you should be doing? focus on your land in new mexico, will you please? getting that sold. it's not going to disney >> it turns out that that land has a huge amount of oil on it i don't know if you heard coterra talk about it. >> you can drill a well? >> i have the option 200,000 acres. it turned out, david -- ♪ this is a story of a man named jim ♪ >> i've had it with you. by the way, i'm done we're done here. >> that's all it took? >> david, i have over a hundred million dollars worth of natural gas liquids and oil there. >> you've never walked out on us

before >> i ask myself that question every day, whoy you do this. >> i killed the estee lauder >> you did a good job reporting. you did a good job >> before you go, one last thing, american's up 4%. jpmorgan says they're doing a good job paying down debt. in fact, these legacies, they say, have finally won the war against the discounters. >> well, when i met with them, they were adamant that there's something i was saying, which is that the first five rows were business, and they don't have those anymore. they said, that's just -- like the individuals are paying the same rates that the businesses used to, so drop that rap. i shot that down >> you shot that down. >> i shot that down too. >> you're doing great. >> you hurt my feelings. >> i'm just telling you, why are you wasting time talking about whether draftkings is going to make book on the debt ceiling? >> maybe you didn't hear the interchange. >> i heard i heard it not that great, but i still

heard it >> i am shooting down everything >> there's talk about disk for a minute >> there's nothing there >> except $21 billion in debt. i mentioned it because dish company, we used to follow, but now it's a $3.8 billion market value, going down another 1%, so we don't follow it as much anymore, but they did lose 552,000 subscribers. they had that cyber issue, may of -- that was more than had been anticipated >> did they tell people not to take it? >> i don't know. they did have a more modest free cash flow burn because remember, they're spending a lot to try to create a nationwide 5g wireless network. remember, that was the play here >> comcast did a very dismissive note >> and jim, carl, the key here, like with so many companies in this market that have a lot of debt is, how are you going to roll over $21 billion of existing debt, credit suisse

writing this, where the debt markets appear to have lost confidence in the company with its bonds yielding 15% or more it trades now not on equity value but on credit and the whims of the market to a certain extent when you get that regional bank concern, the stock goes down, but now we have earnings as well free cash flow is a little better subscriber loss is a little worse. >> i just thought, by the way, when i went over to the comcast conference call, when i compared it to paramount, i'll tell you what's interesting paramount was far more bullish about their business than comcast was. bob bakish, ceo of paramount, it read like all the good things you heard about first republic >> paramount shares have actually now turned around to your point, and again, we've made this point, comcast, which had a very strong quarter, free cash flow--wwise did lose video

subscribers, and more lost by dish pretty soon, you're talking big numbers. that's a quarter >> you are you're talking very big numbers. and i found that the only one -- and we did -- we barely talked about it the only one that's been able to pull this thing off was zaslav the numbers were good there. that was -- break even >> getting a break even in direct to consumer >> we didn't talk nearly enough about how good that quarter was. >> it wasn't a bad quarter didn't get a great reception in the marketplace. >> they didn't bother to read it >> a lot of back-end free cash flow they have to generate and they got $50 billion in debt >> well, but i -- >> on that point, dish is eight times, i mean, has -- ebitda to -- to debt is something like 8.1 times right now. that's not good. >> no. but i like, you know, there's a -- there are people who constantly say -- and david, could you please just end this

right now -- that there's talks between -- that comcast is going to merge with warner bros. discovery. you know, it's a moore's trust issue. >> first of all, you got to wait another year the tax implications, as some would tell you, could move if you wanted to. others say, you have to wait two full years from spin, so we've still got plenty of time >> i can speculate on anything you want me to speculate on things >> sure. what do you got? >> i'd rather not. i believe that when you do that, it tends to get people to buy things, and then i have a responsibility to not have people buy something on rumor, right? >> yeah. right. at some point, consolidation may come i don't know when that point will be. >> right, right. >> take a look at bonds this morning with the dow going red rather quickly here. two-year still just out the four we'll see what the loan officer survey tells us about q1 at 2:00 p.m. eastern time this

afternoon. and by the way, don't forget you can always check in on the cnbc investing club with jim. use the qr code on your screen we're back in just a moment. don't go anywhere. and i remember kind of thinking like, "oh my gosh, i think we could be sisters." because i think we looked... yes. right. yeah. and i don't think at that time- i think you're the one to tell me that we had the same birthday. yes. it's really unbelievable when you think about it, because it's been, like, really over 20 years that you were my mother and father's banker, you became my banker and now fran is in her third year of college and you're her banker. it's so unbelievable because i'm just 20 years old. [laughing] new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria.

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. let's get to jim and stop sfligds we didn't get over the z scalar enough. cloudflare i had on last week didn't make the quarter and i think they just got fed up waiting for the conference -- waiting for them to be able to say something. a lot of people feel cloud fare should have preannounced

they were waiting until june and said their order books are good. there had been fear it had become a nonessential thing. that's off the table. >> yeah. bofa the desk says the first time they can recall them doing this. >> they've never done it jay has been on "mad money" many times. very conservative man. this is a very big deal and says that -- that no, it's not discretionary. this is important. which is good by the way because there's a host of companies that are in this industry that no one -- they've all assured me -- the elongated cycle that cloud fare has is not what they share including cloud strike which tells me things are fine. >> they report on june 1, strange, given what we heard about april out of amazon, but -- >> very, very strange. something to keep track of this -- this -- anything that's -- that's actually in the cloud right now is very cloudy after what happened. >> how about tonight >> okay. one of the hottest groups in the

world is artificial limbs, artificial knees, wrists but there is a super cycle according to mr. lobo in knees, hips, and stryker is crushing it just crushing it. >> all those boomers need new parts. >> and they held off for a couple years because of covid. >> remember when intuitive had procedures up double digits. >> they felt they were in the clear, that stock has been amazing. i just think -- it's -- j&j, my trust owns which has been disappointing, do kenvue, better than expected and they had a bladder cancer tdevice this weekend. much better than expected. they have talc, talc, asbestos into liability. >> much worse than expected. >> fair. >> if you say so. >> he says most of the things i say are irrelevant i worked all morning on this and

yesterday. >> i didn't say most i said one thing about making book on the debt ceiling. >> now viewers can tune in to see if you last the whole show or storm off. >> look at this posture. i feel defeated. >> we'll see you at 6:00, "mad money. pretty narrow range to start a busy week. s&p down 4 don't go anywhere. ur third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. welcome to the place... where people go to learn about their medicare options... before they're on medicare. come on in. you're turning 65 soon?

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good monday morning and welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber live for you as always at post nine of the new york stock exchange take a look at stocks in the early going. big week ahead with inflation data on wednesday and s&p 500 down 0.1%. the nasdaq down about 0.4% after that big rally off jobs on friday still a down week. >> a lot of data headed our way the next few sessions. let's get started with wholesale inventories and rick santelli. >> yes our march final read on wholesale inventories which means the mid-month read of up 0.1%, the new read unchanged the previous month was up 0.1%,

the final read on february, final march now unchanged. if we look towards the sales side of the ledger, expecting up near half a percent. but not to be, down 2.1%, down 2.1% that is the weakest sales read and i have to go back quite a ways on that april of 2020 when down 2.1%, was covid related and that was down over 16%. a big drop in sales. we need to monitor this as we continue to try to handicap whether the notion of a recession is a realistic outlook considering some of the stronger data points like friday's jobs report sara, back to you. >> thank you we're 30 minutes into the trading session. three movers we're watching, z scale releasing preliminary

results. tyson shares slumping after reporting a loss for the quarter. the company also cutting its sales forecast for the year as dealing with falling demand and pricing challenges down almost 13%. we're watching all the regional banks but look at packwest adding to an 82% pop on friday after the regional bank slashed its dividend to further build capital amid the volatility. a lot more on the banks in a moment clearly the other side of the short sellers. here's the squeeze today up another 20% first tens of thousands of investors descending on omaha for the shareholder meeting where warren buffet and charlie munger spoke five hours on saturday and made a lot of headlines. becky quick is live from omaha this morning with some of the highlights good morning what were you takeaway >> sara, good morning. there were so many things that happened this weekend. some of the takeaways just the idea that they talked so much

about succession planning and what would happen. a lot of questions that came in were questions about how greg would run things, what did each say. so i think they were probably more in depth on succession questions than we've ever had to this point but the other big issues they addressed right out of the gate on saturday was that warren buffet talking about the banks and said that not backstopping silicon valley bank would have been catastrophic in his words and voiced american depositors are not going to lose a dime when it comes to this. a few weeks ago on our program he talked about how he would throw up a million dollars of his own money to bet anybody who thought they would lose money. the government won't allow it. he did say the politicians and media should done a better job when it comes to messaging >> we don't know where the shareholders of the big banks necessarily or the regional banks or any, are heading.

i have my bank, my own personal money, and i'm probably above the fdic limit, i have a local bank, i don't worry about it in the least. in terms of owning banks, events will determine their future. you've got politicians involved, you've got a whole lot of people don't really understand how the system works and i would say that you've had something less than a perfect communication between various people and the american public so the american public is as confused about banking as ever >> buffet said that there should be punishment for bank executives who do the wrong thing. we didn't learn anything new about berkshire's holdings, buffet said you could read the latest filings due in the latest week or two.

he did address some of the company's largest holdings in fact, prominent person here in the audience this week apple's ceo tim cook was here for the meeting on saturday and coming here in the past, come here every year since berkshire first revealed it stakes in the company. at this point berkshire hathaway owns more than 900 million shares of apple. buffet praising the company calling it a better business than any of berkshire's subsidiaries and the iphone is an extraordinary product. >> we don't have anything like that that we own 100% of, but we're very, very happy to have 5.6 or whatever it may be percent and we're delighted every tenth of a percent it goes up it's like adding $100 million to our earnings, our share of the earnings, and they use their earnings to buy out our partners, which we're glad to see them sell out to. >> buffet made headlines in another top ten holding occidental petroleum berkshire holds about 24%.

it's a stake that has steadily increased over the first quarter. >> we will not be making any off are for control of occidental, but we love the shares we have we may or may not own more in the future, but we certainly have warrants we have as part of the original deal on a very substantial amount of stock around $59 a share and those last a long time, and i'm glad we have them. >> and by the way, on that question, he was not specifically asked, sara, if he was going to be buying the rest of occidental. that's something he kind of chose to put out himself he was asked what they think about it, why they have the big investments in it, but went out of his way to say we're not going to buy the entire company to tamp down rumors that might be out there about that. >> they have been throughout a lot. i loved how he weighed in on, i don't know if he got a question about it, but on the dollar because there's been so much,

now politization and worry about the u.s. losing its reserve currency status a lot of fear mongering, people worried about china making deals in yuan i thought it was interesting what he said >> he was asked a specific question about that. it was a teenager in the audience who stood up wait thoughtful question on the dollar he went out of his way to say yes, he thinks this is going to be the reserve currency. but he didn't have kind words about the politicians speaking to this point, he said they haven't done favor, confusing messages, talking out both sides of their mouth the politicians haven't helped and the media hasn't helped. he's concerned that people are so worried about it doesn't think it will be an issue because he thinks ultimately the people in charge of things will make the right decisions it's a messy process getting there, but ultimately, having gone through this, seen it a lot of times in the past, they'll finally come to the point where they realize they can't do

something that's really going to significantly hurt the dollar and as a result, they'll find some sort of a deal. >> finally, becky, we talked in the nine about taiwan semi and what an interesting dynamic where he lavishes praise on the management and the company, but is, obviously, just not a fan of the geography as he said. >> yeah. and look, i think he was pushed on this because it was a really big about-face he loaded up on taiwan semiconductor shares and then in matter of months later, got rid of the entire stake. that was a 5 plus billion dollar about-face so there have been a lot of questions, people saying what happened did something change he said no, i guess basically he rethought what was happening on the peninsula but thinks it's a fantastic company. >> thank you very much so much good color there and headlines on all the main stocks, becky quick in omaha it's a big week for investors. janet yellen making fresh

comments on the debt ceiling ahead of a meeting of congressional leaders tomorrow we're also going to get cpi on wednesday, ppi later in the week key on inflation and then the regional banks continue to see massive volatility they're in rebound mode today, but they were actually down for the week last week trading at levels we haven't seen, at least some of these regional banks, since march 2020 and we continue to see a lot of volatility whether the short squeeze, short selling, or the fundamentals where pack west comes out and reassures people with the dividend cut. guys, the one thing, and you know i look through some of the macro data on this to see just how much stress these banks are in and what kind of credit squeeze we're looking at, we have the fed balance sheet data on the banks deposits and loans, it was not bad we saw loans go up and they, importantly, the loan growth came from the small businesses and then the deposits went down a little bit, but on the smaller banks, they went up.

so, this continues to feed into the argument that the share price doesn't necessarily correspond with the fundamentals which shows deposits have stabilized if you're looking for a massive credit squeeze as some of the concerns are throughout, we're just not seeing it yet. >> yeah. it's interesting anecdotically you would expect people who have to have rolling financing have a tougher time, ceo have come on our air and said we vice phaven't tightened standards that much. it's four straight weeks of increasing loans at commercial banks. >> and commercial real estate, of course, will continue to be a concern and one brought up by those who are, perhaps, more negative on the future for some of these banks in terms of where their loan books are and what their willingness is to continue to lend. those are interesting numbers already. i don't know at what point we start to dismiss this whole idea of credit tightening it must be too early at this minute >> we will get a report at 2:00 p.m., the senior loan officer

survey for may, something the fed has had a look at before their meeting and it's great because it gives color on just how much these credit standards are tightening we've already been seeing that we haven't seen an easing since 2021 in credit standards are we going to see more severe evidence if it's relatively benign, david, you put that with the employment report on friday, and some of the economic data, yes, we're slowing, but we're not in recessionary territory i think the question mark is, what the impact is here of the banks. >> right and then we come back to inflation and wage inflation and part of what fed - >> that was a surprise on friday. >> a hotter -- >> hotter than expected. it's an important point you made about deposits not really flowing out of these banks and so the crisis of confidence seems to be created more in the equity markets and there is a significant question there as to whether that's something that is being attempted by those who were shorting the stocks and therefore trying to create that sense that these banks are in trouble, even though they are,

and this is the key point, not losing deposits, at least thus far. >> and the short sellers would say is it our fault that regional banks have had some bad management when it comes to interest rate exposure, that they're vulnerable and some of these vulnerabilities have been highlighted. >> right. >> silicon valley bank and first republic. >> impacted over time. >> there's a question mark over regulation and new capital rules and just how much it's going to cost to maintain a regional bank i have a conversation later with janet yellen, the treasury secretary, coming on at 4:00 and we're going to talk debt ceiling front and center because that's another added risk to the economic outlook and also talk about stability or lack thereof. >> what is trying -- she was on this weekend, she's coming on with you, what's she trying to accomplish here by the space of communicating? >> she is trying to instill a sense of urgency on wall street and in corporate america and the general public about the debt ceiling. june 1st does not leave us a lot of time and not a lot of time

when all the members of congress and president are on the hill together we'll get the meeting with mccarthy tomorrow and the president. he doesn't want to negotiate on the debt ceiling but her point is, this needs to happen, otherwise we risk financial crisis something new on abc this weekend is that the whole -- all the workaround, some are saying they could invoke the 14th amendment, you can't question the u.s. debts, that would be a constitutional crisis. let's get congress to pass this thing. it's beating the drum on how important that is. the market is in the short term, david, and treasuries and credit default swaps, starting to price in increasing likelihood of default. we're not seeing broader equities and longer term treasuries. >> the month whatever we are - >> one month and three months. >> june t-bill. >> and three year and five year you're seeing it it's going to be, obviously, important and if we continue to come out of tomorrow's meeting with no progress and no sort of resolution path in sight, it could be worrisome

i don't think the financial crisis what is we need right now. >> no. >> trying to avoid one if we can. >> added to the mix. as we head to break our road map for the hour, we talked regional banks, the stocks are higher today, is the worst over we'll discuss after the break. >> plus, as lending at least seems to be getting tighter, although we just discussed that it may not be getting as tight as we think, there is a key group of investors looking to fill the gap more on that story ahead. >> and then finally from apple to energy, we are going to break down some of buffet's top picks and whether it's time to buy some of those and cash out big show still ahead don't go away. ries... soup and salad. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together can help you make smarter decisions. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.

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happen out the present situation. depositors will not lose money, stock holders and debt holders of the holding company, they should lose money. the people borrowed out on commercial real estate, and now it isn't -- the loans aren't getting extended, they should. it's too bad that's part of borrowing on 100% margin, which is what people were doing in commercial real estate you've got to have penalties hit the people because the problem is if they took risks they shouldn't have it needs to fall on them if you change how people behave in the future. >> that was warren buffet talking all things related to banking over the weekend pressure point for regional banks continues to be things like commercial real estate which buffet mentioned our next guest says the mini

crisis far from over joining us at post nine, former barclays ceo bob diamond, the ceo and founding partner of atlas merchant capital good to have you why do you think this mini crisis, as we've been calling it for some time, is far from over? >> i think to the point that warren said, no one is going to lose their deposits, but that's kind of implied right now. my sense is we need policy in that regard, so i think significant increase in the level of deposit insurance, i don't think it has to be uncapped, but needs to be significantly ahead of here. i think underlying that, in my mind, is to some extent the banks are already utilities so guaranteeing deposits. we don't want a small business in des moines to be responsible for the understanding the balance sheet of the local community bank and as warren buffet said, the depositors are at risk, the unsecured creditors are at risk, the management teams are at risk, which is how

the system should work i guess also underpinning it in my mind there's a real value to our economy and our country to have 4,000 banks the service that small businesses around the country get is very different than they would get from the behemoths it's a different cost, a different touch, a different understanding. and so one of my beliefs for a long time has been that our economy benefits from having the largest, most liquid, most diverse financial services industry of any country in the world and time and again we recover more quickly from crises and there's a value to having these small businanks the concentration of risk and power, 10% of every deposit is at jpmorgan. do we really want three or four banks kind of the way china has or many of the european countries has, i don't think so. this is an easy decision for us and we need policy.

>> yeah. to your original point, though, there had been a brief moment where we thought after the receivership of first republic we were kind of going to be okay and then we saw the tumult from last week. do you think we're still at risk of losing another few banks? or unless we actually get policy the way you talk about is it going to continue to be something we watch in the financial markets and think about a lot? >> i do. i don't want to be overly dramatic, but i think if we don't have policy, at the end of the day people aren't going to trust it's implied and i do believe it's implied and i don't believe people will lose their deposits we need policy i think there's a bigger risk that we get most of this tag you're it, short selling on friday afternoon and identify the bank in trouble and the equity prices are down there's going to be a change in regulation on the smaller institutions if you have kind of the recognition that maybe

regulators weren't doing everything they could have done in svb which has been written by the regulators themselves, then you know what happens is you get over regulation. the impact on the small banks will be even more significant to kind of build the staff to manage more regulatory intrusion. i do think we're going to see it tilt to this i hope it's not too dramatic i think the risk of tag you're in, are there in the market. >> if we're thinking of them as utilities, doesn't that change the model and over the long term absent liquidity crises, right, is that why the equity is getting rerated like this, the market thinking this will be a different business >> i think prior to 2008, no one used the term banks are utilities. i think with the increased concentration of the big four in the u.s., clearly they're safe there's much higher levels of capital. but are they as agile and mobile

and covering small businesses and small companies the way that these other banks can? i don't think so. >> what about the cost of inyou sure -- you're suggesting insure all deposits of the banking system. >> as warren buffet said, we're kind of insure them, right we have the treasury secretary, the secretary of the treasury saying that deposits are safe and it's kind of implied, sara and i think -- >> it's implied but would need a rule from congress and there are some that question whether the fdic, again, would just continue to use the systemic exemption for everyone >> and i agree with that i don't have a plan of how to get there, but i think it would be great for the banks to work on this. it's a bank tax. figure out the appropriate level where small businesses are comfortable. the deposits aren't just the savings of individuals the deposits are there because small businesses have to make payroll on tuesday and they have to have the money in for that or they have inventory financing of

products made in italy or france so we need to think more broadly around the role of banks for small businesses i'm definitely talking from the point of view of small businesses and family-owned businesses and the importance of having 4,000 banks keep in mind - >> there's a lot of pushback to that people say if you're going to have more regulation and treat them like utilities, you have to have consolidation they almost have to be more gsifis and no other western economy has anything close to what we have. >> no other economy has the economy we have or the financial services industry or the liquidity that we have or the diversity that we have so that things recover more quickly. whether it's 4,000, david, or 5,000 or 3,000, i have no idea but it's not 4 and i think it really changes. i would also say we've kind of crossed the ru bubicon here we had jpmorgan working with the treasury on a 30 billion deposit

from 10 or 11 banks into first republic and then the same bank buying that. so i mean, the closeness between the banks and the government is different than it had been we've kind of crossed that rubicon. also with, you know, the fear of too big to fail, we don't fear that the larger banks are going to become insolvent. the capital levels are very high that's not what i'm saying it's not the fear of failure it's the concentration of power, of one business model, the concentration of risk, it's significant. so how many saw in the earnings recently jpmorgan's deposits are 10% or more -- >> got the cap raised to do the first republic deal. >> who realized the losses are over $100 billion. so we do have to think about these things in terms of the concentration in a small number of banks. >> bob, always appreciate you stopping by and sharing your

thoughts thank you. >> good to be here. especially as spomeone who used to run a big bank. >> warren buffet calling crypto currency toys over the weekend that's not why bitcoin is falling. we're back in two minutewis th the dow down 95 points in the early action reen. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson.

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crypto exchange binance halted bitcoin withdraws for several hours late yesterday and early this morning citing heavy volumes and a surge in processing fees. the company says there was a glut of pending transactions because it hadn't offered bitcoin miners a high enoughward reward and withdraws resumed late yesterday and another early today. bitcoin under pressure on that news hitting the lowest level since april but dutsoes remain outperformer theater we talked about what a strong q1 for a variety of reasons. >> it's interesting gold is rallying to a new all-time high, if you're going to debate. central banks are buying gold.

people like gold right now. still to come, warren buffet had good things to say about this investment in apple we will speak to one analyst who raedis pceis hri target on that stock. that's after the break stay with us what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience? listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device

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i'm seema moody. here's your news update. community nebs allen, texas r continuing to gather to honor the victims of saturday's mass shooting authorities have not disclosed a motive for why the 33-year-old gamm killed eight and injured seven others at an outlet mall saturday's shooting was the second deadliest mass shooting this year. a jury in new york federal court is set to hear closing arguments from lawyers representing donald trump and writer e. jean carroll later today. carroll is accusing the former president of raping her and

defaming her trump did not testify in the case. and french president emmanuel macron commemorating the 78th anniversary of the allied victory over germany and rekindled the flame at the tomb of the unknown soldier in paris, victory in europe day marks the end of the war in europe in 1945 although fighting against japan continued in asia until august david, back to you. >> thank you. we're just over an hour into trading. check in with bob pisani and see what has caught his attention so far. >> what caught my attention, it's two to one advancing to declining stocks at the new york stock exchange and the s&p is down we have a problem. the foot soldiers are not helping us it's big caps. take a look at the sector. nice to see banks bouncing back two days in a row and energy bouncing back a little, oil was 68 a few days ago. 73 now that's a big help. banks are flatish but materials a little bit more risk on here

tech, though, has all been big cap dominated. a great move up, but it's all the biggest names. the foot soldiers, smaller tech are doing terribly how strong the day has been, this quarter has been for big tech names you think apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon, all up look at these moves for the quarter. you think the s&p must be up 2, 3, 4%. it's not really. berkshire has been strong and nvidia and meta. these are the biggest names in the s&p 500. all pushed forward you would think we have a great quarter going, but we don't. the s&p is only up 0.5% even with that all those big moves up the equal weighted s&p is down 1.3% the average stock is down this quarter. technology is up slightly, but the equal weight technology is down 6%. tech stocks have been terrible performers overall even though the big cap have been doing well the russell 2000 has been a poor performer and the nasdaq a terrible performer on the

advanced decline line. it's a problem when you have the foot soldiers aren't doing well. a simple way is to look at how we were doing on the 200 day moving average here. in early february the s&p 500, 72% stocks above 200 day moving average. that's positive momentum for the markets. today less than half are so we're not getting the foot soldiers and other stocks throughout helping the market move forward the question is how do you get the advance-decline line back, more stocks advancing than declining? obviously, the recession risk, a lot being priced in here if that were to go away, if banks were to stabilize that would help we've seen that in the last couple days. and some resolution of the debt crisis also might help a little bit. but we just need some better movement on the advance-decline line great to see the banks stabilize but everybody needs to remember zions, for example, was $50 just a month ago or so. a little over a month ago. it bottomed at 250 and now it's

$25. we need a little more movement in the advance-decline line for the average stock. b back to you. >> thanks. warren buffet heaping praise on apple at berkshire's annual meeting over the weekend. >> the good thing about apple is that we can go up. they -- buying their stock instead of owning 5.6%, they got down to -- they got about 15 billion shares outstand 15.25 without us doing anything. >> has a buy on apple and raised the target to 193. i think that's about a $20 bump and you cite a number of reasons. easing effects, em in china, india i should say, financial services can you ladder out which are the most important >> sure. first off i like warren buffet's

comment there and if you look at the quarter apple reported they also indicated that they're going to buy back 9 billion more shares of stock which is what warren is talking about. apple is saying hey investors if you're not buying our stock, and warren buffet f you're not, we're going to buy our stock if you look at the march quarter it was better than expected iphone sales on the reopening of china that drove the results and you are seeing improvement in fx what was a 10 percentage point headwind went down to a 5 percentage point and expected to be 4 points in the june quarter. it was the strength of the iphone on a reopening china that drove the stock's performance. >> do you see them -- we had this discussion this morning into parts of the world where just the average selling price is largely android part of the planet where they could go on offense in countries maybe where an iphone has been too expensive historically >> that's an opportunity and challenge.

if you look at india and you compare india against china, they have a tremendous playbook for china which is about 10 percentage points of their sales so 10% of their sales from chinese consumers and their supply chain is heavily dependent on china perhaps in a decade, india could be 5 to 10% of revenue and a greater portion of their supply chain being handled in india it is very much an android market apple historically hasn't done well with lower priced iphones consumers want the one with all the bells and whistles which tends to be the most expensive one. as the indian economy improves and more middle-income consumers there it's an opportunity for apple, but i think we have to, you know, it's a 5 to 10-year opportunity. >> what did we learn, tom, about the susceptibility to consumer demand weakness? that's what everybody is worried about in the market and with the high priced iphones, i mean it's held up well so far. >> we learned that apple is not

immune, so while it was a strong quarter for iphones and i've seen the argument that iphones are a consumer staple now, it was a weak performance for their services you see it in the digital advertising. apple is not immune to macro economic challenges and i think that that's been prevalent and faking apple but they continue to outperform versus expectations. >> finally, interesting bit on the tape this morning about this five-part corporate bond offer and they have a record going to market when you look at how rate cycles have behaved. they have a fair amount of debt coming due in the next few years, right >> i think they're going to have an opportunity to refinance the debt, they'll likely have to do so at higher rates what is different is that they were more willing to take on debt including the buyback shares of late, but now with higher rates it's interesting to

see how they move forward. they indicated they intend to buy back 90 billion more of their stock. i think they're going to manage their debt load, the good news is they generate a ton of free cash flow. >> pretty interesting story. we'll keep 193 in mind when we think of you see you soon. >> thank you, carl. >> meanwhile we're watching oil today. oil stocks rebounding after coming off their worst week since mid-march. the oil services etf the oih on pace for a third straight day of gains. the bottom in for oil? our next guest warns consumers now until july 4th is the highest price risk joining us is john, capital founding partner do you look at this as a market's read on recession we're seeing a bounce today, but prices are 40% or so off the 52-week highs. >> yes good morning, sara i do the oil market has been, you know, almost reacting similarly to the stock market in terms of the potential for recession or

certainly the professional for lackluster growth and even -- [ no audio ] gasoline demand poor for the bulk of this year. a couple good weeks during spring break and two weeks ago in the report, tremendous spike higher, but these lower, there's problems throughout in the trucking sector. >> we're smag audio issues with john we'll try to work on that and get back to you. john kilduff with oil prices up and energy stocks higher, reversing some of the trend we've seen lately. helping the market, though, we're down about 85 points on the dow. s&p 500 under a little pressure as well. still ahead, stifel raises their s&p target to 4400 this morning. not a whole lot of strategists doing that lately. barry bannister will join us to

discuss the move next hour an interview you won't want to miss later this afternoon, treasury secretary janet yellen, as the debt ceiling deadline looms and calls it a potential constitutional crisis en voguing the 14th amendment as a work around don't go away.

crude oil in rally mode. administration stocks at the top of the market. let's bring back john, capital founding partner on the cnbc newsline with hopefully audio working. you were saying this is a reflection of economic projection from the u.s. and from china what's the swing factor going forward? >> yeah.

very much so obviously, the china economy and the outlook for it is playing a big role in driving oil prices higher in the last year. the reopening hopes there are stumbling a bit, and we're not seeing the sort of robust demand out of china that had been expected we got their manufacturing pmi last week and it showed contraction in that sector for them that's been an issue here in the u.s., gasoline demand from the consumer has been lackluster. only a couple of good strong weeks. we're also seeing big problems in the trucking sector where freight rates are way down and depressed and diesel fuel is lack as well as a result of that you know, the big picture isn't necessarily there. the counter weight you have is opec and saudi arabia trying to do everything they can to drum this market and cut some to prop up the price going under 70 last week got their attention and that's what

we're focusing on now. that sub-70 level is a buying opportunity in the market, no two ways about that. >> that's your forecast, do you think we've seen a short-term bottom after a big slide >> i do. we've bottomed around 68 a couple times now we've also abandoned this trading range between about 70 and 80 for months. i'll tell you if we don't get a break out here in the time period you referenced before we got cut off, between now and july 4th should be the hurt point for consumers if it occurs we could see a trip towards 80 to 85 in time but once again, i expect the gasoline demand doldrumses to sink back in here and for prices to slide back down and potentially challenge opec, and its desire for 70 plus oil as we get into the labor day timeframe. >> "the wall street journal" leading with big oil companies and all the cash they have, but not putting any of it

in the ground. obviously, their shareholders perfectly happy about that what are your expectations any change in terms of their capital deployment expected? >> we've been seeing a level of caution for sure, david, and some slowing i will tell you, i would expect for us to see more production coming online slowly but steadily and see a new record high production point for the u.s. at some point this year we're at 12.3 million barrels a day. i could see that getting up to 12.5 or 12.6 or higher there's still work being done and wells drilled, of course there's consolidation and just not chasing the blue sky mentality has gone out of the market for a while because of the price drop get back towards 90s and 100 you will see drilling activity kick back in. >> on retail gasoline are we going into summer with inventories less than history would suggest for this time of the year does that build the potential

for upside price surprise? >> it does that's the concern that's what will be built into the market over the period between now and july 4th that i keep referencing you know, the angst will come if we don't see decent size inventory bills over the course of the next few weeks, then yeah, you're going to see a squeeze at the pump. some communities already seeing that i will tell you that refineries are come out of their maintenance period they're running over 90% and with again the lackluster demand we're seeing it should be easy, carl, for the inventories to get to normalized levels. there's vulnerabilities throughout the market. that's the wholing that i we're dealing with here. the reality on the ground, slow and steady, but there's huge risks. >> john, thank you for joining us by phone. appreciate it. energy leads the s&p energy and financials. >> yeah. >> as we go to break this morning, throughout the month of may, cnbc is celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage through the stories of

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well, community banks are pulling back on loans, some family offices are preparing to fill the gaps. robert frank joining us with the details, robert. everybody getting into the private credit business. >> yeah, no question, sara family offices, in fact, could help cushion the blow from

tighter lending by the regional banks. a new family office survey from goldman sachs showing nearly a third of family offices plan to invest more into private credit this year. that makes it one of their top investments. that's to lending by nonbanks and the big attraction here, well, it's double-digit returns thanks to these higher interest rates. you add to that less risk because you're at the top of the potential creditor list and growing demand because these small and medium size banks are not lending as much. >> i think it leaves room for a whole new group of investors to kind of attend and be really opportunistic in this space. if you know anything about family offices, they love being opportunistic on dislocations. that's why we see higher cash balances >> and, sara, as you mentioned, the private credit market has just tripled over the last eight years to $1.4 trillion it's a very complex market with lots of risks. most family offices are working

with special managers or funds in order to invest as for the rest of their money, familyoffices are holding a lo of cash right now at about 12% of total assets. they have nearly half of their assets in alternatives that's hedge funds, private equity and real estate they have about 28% in equities, which they also plan to add more of this year and you can see our latest family office investor interview out today on cnbc pro. guys >> yeah, well, robert you point out so importantly how quickly this market has grown, or in private credit overall obviously, fueled in part by family offices i mean, the returns now, you talk to mark rowen at apollo and they talk about double digit returns on some of the opportunities when it comes to private credit i would assume that's got the attention of many of those offices. >> yeah, absolutely. it was a great interview you had with mark, talking about even though they had billions of dollars in this market, there's still a small share. this is at $1.4 trillion now,

expected to go to $2.3 trillion in the next three years. you have to wonder, david, there's never a free lunch on wall street. if you're getting double digit returns, we'll find out where the risks are. you know, we haven't seen any big blowups yet but there's so much money coming into this sector you know, the experience is new for many investors, especially for family offices it's going to be interesting to see where the risks turn out to be >> that's a great point. and i hear it a lot as well. we'll be following it. perhaps more than we have in the past, thanks to you, robert. robert frank. before we go, let's get over to dom chu and get market movers we may have missed. >> let's start in cloud computing with shares of both snowflake and workday. we're talking about analysts at stiffle updating snowflake to buy from hold. they cited among other things stabilizing growth winds and tailwinds from other artificial

intelligence and cloud-based resources workday getting downgraded from hold to buy. they cited, amongst other things, an expectation that bookings could come in lighter than expected and a lack of near-term catalyst snowflake up 2.5%. jpmorgan is upping american airlines to overweight from neutral. they like their relative valuation given a big ramp-up in international travel southwest airlines gets downgraded from neutral to overweight given its lack of exposure to those positive international growth trends. american airlines is up about 5% right now. southwest is kind of moving between gains and losses and we'll end with another call out of jpmorgan this time on fertilizers scotts miracle-gro gets upgraded from overweight to neutral the view being raw material upside cost pressures have come to an end, they've peaked and lower commodity costs overall

trending that way could be a tailwind in the months ahead scotts miracle-gro, 6.5% back over to you. >> dom chu, some of the names we didn't get to. one name we did start the show with was, broadly speaking, the regional banks i would note the kre, the s&p regional banking etf has turned negative, down about 0.83% you can see the overall market also in the red ever so slightly there's a look at the regional bank index it had been up as much as 1% "squawk on the street" continues after this

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good monday morning. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla on the floor of the new york stock exchange. apollo's chief economist on the debt ceiling deadline and a softening jobs market. and stifle's barry bannister is with us taking his s&p target to 4400. >> exclusives with co-founder of blue owl and founder of micr microchip. as david said, the kre under some pressure despite