it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc headquarters here is the "five@5. we begin p trying to break the dead ceiling deadlock. we are live in washington with the preview. ahead of the meeting, janet yellen is sounding the alarm to the private sector over the debt crisis as she warns of a coming economic catastrophe spikie speaking of crisis, the banking turmoil and how that to fuel a credit crunch.

and lucid on life support. sending shares down ahead of the open and sam bankman-fried has a new legal strategy to help him avoid jail time. it is tuesday, may 9th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. a mixed session yesterday and this morning, the declines in the nasdaq in pre-market nasdaq down .50% we are seeing the dow jones industrial average opening up 100 points lower if it opened at this time. that is still early. the s&p is fractionally lower. the bond market is something we are watching as we await the inflation data look at the 10-year treasury at

3.49 we are looking at the 2-year treasury a bit below 4% yield there we have seen bond yields tick up the last week. we are looking at the energy markets. oil back above $70 a barrel wti crude is down 1% brent crude at $76.25. natural gas is down 1% speaking of crude, wells fargo lays out the case for what it calls a commodity super cycle. more on that later we are watching cryptocurrency bitcoin below $30,000. ethereum is still below 2,000. those are key points for the digital coins. also up this morning fractionally time for the check on the action in asia and europe. julianna tatelbaum is standing by in our london newsroom with more good morning, julianna >> good morning, frank

it is similar in europe with the u.s. futures pull back across the board red for every region the majority of the sectors. oil and gas under performing and pull back as you pointed out majority of sectors are trading lower. mixed data from china. exports better than expected imports are worse than expected. that factoring into trade. investors waiting for the cpi this week. the bank of england is in focus on thursday with the latest policy decision. >> julianna, we have big news from the ubs and credit suisse takeover what is the latest there >> we certainly do we have been waiting for more details to emerge credit suisse's korner will join the ubs board. the combined entity will operating a consolidated banking

group. credit suisse will run under ubs. reiterating it will value all options for the swiss business in terms of the share price, ubs is muted one other issue is adidas and the pressure over the kanye west probe. the union investment will call on the sportswear giant to release the probe and calling on management to transparently clean up the scandal they parted ways over the anti-semitic remarks made by the rapper this is one to watch on thursday this morning, it is down .50%. frank. >> julianna tatelbaum live in our london newsroom. thank you. time for the check on the

corporate stories and including the report from the fed over the banking crisis pippa is here with that. >> the warning of the banking turmoil could result in a crunch to result in a slowdown. the financial stability report and the central bank says despite action by regulators, worries of the banking sector could lead to a contraction of credit disgraced ftx founder sam bankman-fried's lawyer is asking for a dismissal of charges lawyers argue that their client alleged illegal activity took place outside of the u.s. and the political donations were legal. goldman sachs agreeing to pay $215 million to settle a class action lawsuit alleging it

under pays female employees. according to the joint statement from the bank and lawyers representing 2,800 female soesoerkt associates and vice presidents say a third of the money will be set aside. it will review the promotion and performance valuation processes for three years. frank. >> pippa, thank you very much. turning attention now to washington and president biden set to hold a face-to-face with the top leaders as it look to break the deadlock this as janet yellen personally warning leaders about the negative impact a debt default could have on their businesses and global economy let's get more from pethodrew

petrimoulx in washington. >> reporter: with no end to the stalemate in sight, fears continue to grow on the impact in the economy top leaders head to the white house with the crisis over the debt ceiling causing fears of catastrophe. janet yellen warns as soon as june 1st, the government could run out of money to pay federal workers and fund the military and pay for programs like m medicaid and medicare. >> if congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, the president will have to make decisions about what to do with the resources that we do have and there are a number of options. there are no good options. every option is a bad option >> reporter: right now, congress is locked in a stalemate republicans in the house passed a plan to lift the debt ceiling, but only in exchange for cuts. over the weekend, 43 republican

senators signed an open letter saying they will not vote to raise the borrowing limit without cuts >> we are trying to hold the debt hostage to us to agree to draconian cuts >> reporter: the president and congressional democrats insist republicans pay the bills now and negotiate spending during budget talks. >> democrats are putting the country in jeopardy. the president, by ignoring the ability to negotiate >> reporter: as the leaders head to the white house, the economy is on shaky grounds. possible default and rising interest rates and turmoil among banks is fueling fears of recession. as republicans try to pressure president biden to necesgonegot. he heads to a district republicans won last year to

highlight what the white house says are the priorities of republicans. reporting from washington, i'm drew petrimoulx, nbc news. >> some are suggesting the president could use the 14th amendment to bypass congress on this issue any sign they are using that to prevent default? >> reporter: frank, this was talked about in the obama administration when congress was close to default the validity of the u.s. debt shall not be questioned. that is the key part that some suggest the president could blow past the debt limit. that is ex-ttremely risky. it is not sure how the creditors would assess the situation the president saying during an interview that he is not there yet. an aide telling nbc news that he prefers not to use that scenario >> drew live in d.c.

thank you. not just the looming default, but wall street's intention focused on the april inflation report $600 billion moved into the money market funds in the past two weeks. that makes $5.3 trillion close to the all-time high as investors look for safety. joining me to discuss is vance howard v vance, great to see you. >> good morning, frank >> i want to talk about two areas you are investing in qqq and kre banking etf. one had a big run up give me the elevator pitch why you are putting money in both. >> you look at the qs, frank, we bounced off 322 area two or three times now and it keeps popping up above it. that would be more of a pivot point trade.

if it breaks with gusto of 322, you have a new rally in the nasdaq 100 i think it is a really attractive buy if we break above the 322 level. you are talking about the regional banks they are price in the regional bank, frank, like they heare gon out of business. i think it is way overdone to the down side. you can see a 10% to 15% pop i think is way overdone. >> you are bucking your personal trend. you are 95 in the market what are you doing with portfolio protection for clients when you are so deep in the market >> you have to look at industrials. industrials are oversold they haven't moved up like the nasdaq the nasdaq and faang stocks led

the market higher since january 4th. there is value out there with the industrials. you need to move away from growth and tech and into industrials. i like raytheon. they are doing a great job they raised dividend the manufacturer of the jet engines issing going through the roof raytheon is set up perfectly for a good defensive play. they have a backlog of inventory purchased and built right now. i think it is a wonderful play >> you mentioned defensive i want to mention specifically at the debt limit talks. what are you telling your clients about preparing for the debt limit or sectors or possible debt limit default. are there sectors you are staying away from? >> the banking sector, unless you play a short-term pop, the

banking sector is a shaky area 100% of the time congress comes back and made a deal and worked with the debt limit. i'm betting this is not any different. they get down to the wire. they will get a deal out of this i think it is a lot of saber rattling a lot of unnecessary nervousness thrown into the market and american public. they will work through it. >> we appreciate you being here. thank you for stopping by. >> thank you more to come on "worldwide exchange," and the one word that investors have to know today why our next guest says we're in the early innings in the commodities super cycle. and lucid running on on empty and seeing shares slide. and the regional bank reckoning and if the trader tide is turning under pressure. a very busy hour ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." you know we have positive momentum with the growing list of worries from the banking crisis let me move the microphone sorry about that from the banking crisis to recession fears. the s&p 500 is stuck in the

trading range for months strategists at wells fargo say we are in the early innings of the bull market super cycle. cl check this out this is the invesco index tracking energy, metals and food up 70% since march of 2020 john laforge is the author of the report john, great to have you here. >> frank, good morning >> john, break out the thesis. you believe we are in the early innings of the cycle how much longer does this super cycle have to last what commodities benefit >> all of them is the answer to number two the way super cycles work is they typically last at a minimum a decade we are three years into this one. the shortest bull super cycle on record is about nine years

you can see we're in thirding in -- third inning to use the baseball analogy super cycles lift with the tide because a certain amount of money is flowing in prior to 2020, it was ten years of terrible pricing producer did not want to produce commodities. now we are short commodities that is propelling the super cycle. before you can get producers back up again running and really churning out different commodities, it ends up being a decade each time this cycle happens. this history does repeat often >> based on history, you know, it is history, but five or six years left in the super cycle. >> yeah, at a minimum. the cycles in the last 100 years are shorter.

if you go back to the 1800s, it is close tr to 20 years. i would say we are getting closer to ten. >> we are looking at the chart for the audience the gray areas are the bear market you see the spike after the bear market iwant to talk about the commodities. oil and gold you have a price target of $90 for oil year end 22% upside $2150 for gold how do you get there between now and then >> i think you hit the recession first. you have the recession fears around everything slowing down that is why i would say oil has backed off that $100 level it was last year. it is really anticipating that recession. as we start moving into the back half of the year, it will be clear with a mild recession and by 2024, we are taking off again globally from the economic standpoint i think oil starts anticipating

that and by year end, we're 90 by 2024 target, that is higher >> we have super cycles. we have ups and downs. i think a question for the audience is should you always hold commodities and wait out the bad times and benefit from the rally or is this the market you can time with the ten-year periods? >> you do not need to be in commodities all the time like you said, frank, in that ten-year period, that's when you want to own it great diversification benefits think last year with stocks down and bonds down your average commodity up 14%. that's what happens during bull super cycles commodities were up in 2021 and 2020 you notice the pattern >> john, i'll put you on the spot what is a commodity outside of oil and gold, obviously, what

are the commodities with the bigger upside with the conditions now with the war in ukraine which impacted agriculture? >> probably platinum what you have is historical relationship between gold and platinum four precious metals platinum is rarer than gold. it trades at a 30% premium to gold right now, it trades at a 50% discount it got hit from the move into electric cars because platinum tends to be used in catalytic converters in gas cars producers are finding new ways, specifically in technology, and electric cars are using more and more platinum. that convergence of 50% discount of platinum will converge with gold >> the first time ever someone said platinum is 50% off, john

>> exactly. >> great report. thank you. >> thanks, frank. ahead on "worldwide exchange," rolling out a red whopper and inspiring on tough a.i. generated content your top trending stories when "worldwide exchange" returns go on... well, what if you partner with ibm and red hat, use a hybrid cloud solution to connect data across multiple systems globally, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time... check. . ..to make quick decisions? check. aaaand check. that's the hybrid cloud solution ibm and a global bank created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. (cecily) you're looking pleased with yourself. (seth) not to brag, what will you create? but i just switched to verizon. (cecily) so you got an awesome network... (seth) and when i switched, i got to choose the phone i wanted. for free. not bragging. (cecily) you're bragging. (neighbor) oh, he's bragging. (seth) who, me? never. oh, excuse me. hello, your royal highness, sir...

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the big money movers. lucid reporting a first quarter loss it has enough cash to continue operations into the next year. you see shares down 8% the company adding it is on track to produce 10,000 vehicles in 2023. that is in line with production targets. the automaker addresses demand concerns with the slow january and changes to the u.s. government ev tax credit shares are down 8% in pre-market different for palantir soaring on earnings beat the commercial revenue growing 26%. the software company known for work with the government says the u.s. commercial customer count increased 50%.

pay t paypal issues a weak quarter earnings the company beat expect takeatis performance with the checkout button on web sites has concerns with paypal losing to apple pay. that is with better than expected growth. time to get a check on the other headlines with nbc's an phillip mena >> good morning, frank we are learning more about the eight people murdered in allen, texas on saturday in the shooting rampage the 3-year-old boy killed with his parents seen here. the only surviving family member is his 6-year-old brother. and also killed are sophia and dani daniela mendoza.

and putin says real war being waged against russian victory day speech president biden has come out in favor of the ongoing writers strike speaking ahead of the screening of "american born chinese. mr. biden said nights like these are a reminder of stories and treating story tellers with the dignity they deserve he hopes the writers are given a fair deal as soon as possible. that is it from here, frank. back to you. >> phillip, thank you. straight ahead on "worldwide exchange," the morning call sheet and the biggest upgrades and down ggrades and a chip mak under pressure. and we are back for the 11th year with the disrupter 50 list will be revealed on "squawk box"

and on cnbc.com/disrupters we have more when "worldwide exchange" continues after this os and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪

it is 5:30 a.m. here in the new york city area we are just getting started here on "worldwide exchange." here's what's on deck. debt ceiling sitdown president biden is hoping to broker a deal on the borrowing limit. also finding portfolio protection keith lerner is saying where he

is putting client money to work. and elon musk breaking ground on the tesla facility here in the u.s. it is tuesday, may 9th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's pick up the half hour with the stock futures. u.s. stock futures in the red. s&p lower. the dow jones industrial average is opening up 100 points lower at this point. it is very early nasdaq is also lower as well let's check on the top stories with pippa stevens >> frank, google the set to pull back the curtain on the annual developer conference today a.i. updates at the event will would be re vevealed

a large model with coding and creative writing tests and analysis google is set to reveal the assistant search. google is set to pay $100 million as part of the content deal according to the wall street journal google will feature on the time platforms. that includes taking part in the google showcase feature. and elon musk joining texas governor greg abbott and others yesterday breaking ground on the lithium refinery tesla plans to invest $375 million in the corpus christi site it is looking to secure lithium which is a key component in the electric batteries and tesla's

home and scale batteries frank. >> pippa, thank you. turning to washington and president biden holding a face-to-face with the top congressional leaders in the oval office as he looks to break the debt limit deadlock. those set to attend are mccarthy and representative jeffries among others this as janet yellen is warning ceos and financial leaders of a debt default and what it could mean for the businesses and economy. speaking with cnbc yesterday, she spelled out what is at stake. >> if we were to compromise the credit rating of the united states and even worse to default on the debt, i think it would have an adverse impact on the dollars used as a reserve currency the dollar is regarded in

treasuries securities as the bedrock safe asset in the global financial system it's trusted and ultimate safe asset. a failure to raise the debt ceiling impairing the u.s. credit rating would put that at risk that is a real concern >> dire warning from janet yellen joining me now is head of washington policy research dan clifton. dan, good morning. thank you for being here. >> good morning. thank you for having me today. >> i think we have to start off where janet yellen left off. the debt ceiling crisis. could it make it the dollar as no longer being the world's currency >> there is a risk of not paying your bills the u.s. will collect $4.5 trillion this year and will have 700 billion of interest costs. the treasury will prioritize the interest payments to make sure

bond holders will continue to get paid that being said, that means there will be less money for other users of the government and the government would have to prioritize which spending programs they want to put themselves into. you have $1 trillion of government spending turning off and lean to a contraction of 5% to 7% of next quarter gdp. you could have a big political event and crisis of confidence in the elected officials if we do not get the debt ceiling up in time. that also needs to be balanced with the fiscal deterioration in the u.s. yesterday, we received the april tax revenues what we found is the fed servicing costs is exploding the highest level since august of 1999. fr frank, this is the first time the u.s. government has increasing debt servicing cost

we have to balance the need with making sure we don't default being able to get our fiscal trajectory in better shape is the challenge for the two policymakers president biden and speaker mccarthy today >> a multifaceted issue. you are bringing up debt se service. a lot of things at play here across the board u.s. defaulting is a bad idea. >> no doubt about it i don't think we will default if we don't get the debt ceiling up >> we had the big meeting at the white house today and congressional leaders and president meeting in the oval office what do you see as the most likely outcome from the meeting? >> if they don't yell at each other, we will call that a victory. second, we are trying to get to the point where the staff and white house can start to meet and begin to put together a real deal we only have three weeks to act.

that gives you limited time. what you want to see is a broad agreement develop over the next three weeks where they say this is what the spending levels will be are we going to include permitting remeform those are the types of agreements you want to see unfortunately, i don't think we will be at that level today. if we did, that would be a big win. if you get a broad agreement getting to the next step and allowing the work at the staff level is a huge victory for the markets. it would tell us policymakers would talk about how to raise the debt ceiling that would set the stage in motion for a deal. >> i want you to explain something to me. you say the markets are re-pricing the high risk of default. one-month treasury is elevated at the same time, you are saying once the deal is reached, there is more risk for the markets

after we get a deal if and when we get a deal. explain that once the crisis is resolved, why is there more risk in the markets? >> i argue you are seeing risk re-price in three areas. defensive stocks and gold and treasuries as we get closer to the debt ceiling, janet yellen will spend down the cash she has. she is taking money not in the banking sector and injecting it in the banking sector. that will cushion the financial markets. once we get the debt ceiling up, we have a number of headwinds. how much austerity is attached to the bill or cut government spending second, the liquidity that janet yellen is providing will come out of the market because she can go right to the debt markets and raise that debt. that money is coming from bank reserves if you go back to 2011, the last time we had a debate like this,

what you saw was we had a larger decline in the s&p 500 after president obama and speaker boehner came to a deal there is a risk this time around and that is counterintuitive, but investors need to be aware of >> dan clifton with a very interesting theory we appreciate your insight thanks for being here. >> thank you market flash on oil giant shell. pirc announcing it is representing the investors vote against the chair and oppose the annual report. failing to address climate risk by setting adequate targets. pirc advising to vote against the energy transition lieresolun ahead of the annual meeting. shares down 1% this morning. coming up on "worldwide exchange," regional bank rebound. we talk to a top analyst on whether the storms in the sector has truly passed

as we head to break, some top trending stories spotify removing a.i. produced songs over complaints of fraud it is not just spotify, twitter initialing a purge which have inactive accounts with no activity in the last several years. elon musk would free up the mainspace of the accounts. a red whopper is swinging into burger king locations next week ahead of the release of the sequel of "spider-man. that's interesting more "worldwide exchange" when we come back in a minute stay with us

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smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the morning call sheet. we check on firms you know and stocks you own.inging on the pre

target now two out perform to $100 a share to $140 bmo saying it sees headwinds emerging more skyworks and shopify is moving from $55 a share to $65 a share it is the best in class executer with strong long-term growth we have jefferies upgrading fro wholesale to buy shares of ferguson up .50% in pre-market we watch the regional banking sector following the report from the fed warning that it could fuel a credit crunch and result in tighter lending to businesses and households resulting in a slowdown of economic activity. the first report from the fed

since the collapse of silicon valley bank and signature bank it is following the regional banks saying back-to-back days of double digit moves to the upside and down side let's talk about this with stephen scouten. >> great to see you, frank. >> we talked about the fed report, stephen, two big reports from the sector. how is this influencing the market today >> what we are seeing early in pre-market trade is not positive it looks like another pressure point on the regional banking group. the loan officers survey was as much as expected to be honest. there is tightening occurring. lending is declining to some degree within the regional banks. we saw some of the data stabilize within recent data

which was overall encouraging. given the liquidity con trant on the ma-- con strstraints on the market, the loan officer survey is backing off and they maintain liquidity and get spreads they need on new loans. if credit is less available and somewhat on future earnings for the banks. to be honest, we think most investors don't want the lending in the environment as we move toward recession longer term, it is positive. >> wait. if the investors don't want the loan officers loaning, but if they loan less, it slows down the economy and hurts business is it a cycle that is bad for the banks in general >> it can be a cycle of negative

optics where the group is trading today, we don't think earnings are the issue. liquidity and fear of contagion and bank failures is trading to the degree we get that fear cycle the contained will be positive for the group moving forward. you are right. creates an earnings pressure point if people want to move on from contagion fear to another negative, they have something else to push on it >> tough situation for the regional banks i want to push more on these correct me if i'm wrong. they are drifting into meme stock territory. elevated short interest. i was looking it up today. pac west up 18% short interest western alliance elevated short interest right now, are these stocks trading on the short interest or deposit levels or trading on something else it doesn't seem to be clear what is moving them up and down

>> i think we would make the argument they are not trading on fundamentals what we see in the h-8 data, borrowings are stabilizing deposits are stabilizing yes, they are a risk to the sector we could see issues later on this year. relative to the stabilization with the trading we have seen is driven from twitter and reddit where people made good money shorting silicon valley bank and first republic and rallying that to the next trade. until the short sellers get one wrong, we will continue to see, in my opinion, manipulation. not our traditional clients or traders. they are still doing what they do well. we are seeing the move beyond the manipulative market. >> stephen, you mentioned

stabil stabilization. leslie picker had a report on the deposit insurance is that enough to stabilize the banks? >> i would like to see all of the policies we put out a note highlighting the turmoil. if you can take that off the table, that risk point off the table, saying we are having a run on x, y, z bank, you would mitigate the pressure from the short side of the trade. we think that is what congress needs to do. act quickly. >> stephen scouten, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know today and keith learner on the approach clients need to take. also, cnbc is celebrating asian american pacific islander

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ahhh! icy hot pro starts working instantly. with two max-strength pain relievers, so you can rise from pain like a pro. icy hot pro. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "wex wrap-up. korner will join the ubs board once the deal closes with credit suisse and adidas will reveal the

details of the dealings with former partner kanye west according to the draft speech seen by the financial times. and shares popping of palantir after the beat on the quarter and year lucid says it has enough cash to last until next year the forecast is coming up short for the quarter and year. and so'shaquille o'neal is looking to throw out the lawsuit after the deal with ftx. and pirc is recommending shell investors vote against the chair and oppose the annual report pirc advising a vote against the shell energy transition resolution. taking a look at what to

watch for the day ahead and focus on the meeting at the white house as the president meets with mccarthy and mcconnell for talks on a possible deal with the debt ceiling. we get earnings from under armour and fox and affirm. we get fed speak in the noon hour let's set all this up with keith lerner of truist. >> good to see you, frank. >> we ask investors to say what is the "wex" word of the day >> we are waiting for the big meeting and traders are wait wwaiting for the cpi print tomorrow wait-and-see mode, frank we have been waiting to move out of the trading range for two years as well. there is a lot of things that require patience for investors. >> you are saying you are being

patient. how are you implementing portfolio protection are you bullish on equities? we hear some people want to jump into the market. are you focused on fixed income? >> focused on fixed income within the asset allocation plan, we have equities within the framework, we are over weight fixed income and cash we look at the market trading at the top end of the historical range and the macro risks are still out there as well. we are being patient before moving from defense to offense as of today, we are on defense sdpldefense. >> i want to push on cash. do you mean leave in the account or money market account with a 5% yield >> we say short-term treasuries. if there is a concern around the

short-term with the debt ceiling, the treasuries will get paid they are paying a tttractive rae money markets are 4% and 5% which is attractive. in general, we are focused on keeping things simple. high quality and fixed income and not taking a lot of credit risk we are finding opportunities within the equities market as well we are being a bit more defensive. >> keith, debt ceiling protection is there something you are telling your clients not to do or specifically to do on the chance there is a default? >> i would say don't over react. we raised the debt ceiling many times. this is the reason to stay defens defensive. >> all about patience. keith lerner, thank you. >> thanks, frank. that is it for us here on

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good morning debt ceiling showdown. the big four congressional leaders meeting with president biden today. we will tell you what to expect. shares of palantir soaring after alex karp predicted shares. and so'shaquille o'neal wans the lawsuit dismissed. it is tuesday, may 9th, 2023

"squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's check things out there are red arrows the dow futures off 105 points nasdaq futures down 50 s&p off 14.5 this comes after a relatively flat day for the markets yesterday. s&p and nasdaq up barely dow down barely. we are watching the treasury market closely as we await the meeting in washington to see what happens with the debt default. the 2-year treasury is below