>> paypal. >> guy >> defense spending never gets cut. lockheed martin. >> thank you for watching "fast money. it has been quite a show with a lot going on as we wait to see what happens out of washington "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now starts right now my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing fields for all investors there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey. i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. i am just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but put it in context. so call me or tweet me everybody loves to obsess over the macro. what will happen with the debt

ceiling? what will the fed do next? how bad is commercial real estate and they tloflove to talk aboute volatility index or regional bank etf or major average. the dow slipped 57 points. nasdaq shed 3.6% of course, you need to have your view of this big picture stuff i don't deny it. there are long standing patterns that are impossible to ignore. lower interest rates do tend to drive stocks higher. the volatility index tends to spike when there is uncertainty over the debt ceiling. you're not going to learn anything from me on that but at the end of the day, i believe the best money can be made by picking individual stocks so many experts will tell you to stick with index funds they argue you'll never be lebron james so just stay in the stands and bet on a basket of basketball players. regardless of how good they are. you never know which of the 500 players will pan out

that's fine. i have index funds you do too i don't buy that that's everything i'm guessing you don't either. also why would you be watching this show? it's just counterintuitive you got your undechindex funds o want to learn to pick stocks i want to walk you through the craft of finding high quality stocks that i think can work i'd like to teach the craft. i was going to be a teacher. instead, i took this job see, i'm not talking -- this is not about coming up with qideas. ideas are everywhere this is about sorting through the ideas once you find them and figure out which ones are viable investments and which ones are dangerous and need to avoid. how do you find a good idea before others take it higher be curious you need to have ingenuity you need a process tonight i want to show you a sorting mechanism that i used for 40 years to spot potential

money making ideas instead of dwelling on the unknowable, when will we resolve the debt crisis. i don't know you don't know why don't we use this as a teaching moment about how to find winners, maybe avoid losers part of my craft is to start with ideas that the market likes already. all right? check out the day's big winners. do this when i'm done with my morning meeting show that i do with jeff for cnbc investing club members i look to see which stocks are up the most on a percentage basis. something i do every day today i spotted the name trex. they used to be a frequent guest on "mad money. they make decking out of recycles trash 95% recycled trash i like the product that is neither here nor there that's not what we're talking about. trex just reported tremendous quarter last night it's up about 8% when we finished our mid morning show. i said morning meeting, check the things sure enough. 8% now i'm interested trex surprised the upside when

they reported there was too much decking inventory that suppressed the price of the stuff. that glut was now gone trex saw improvement in the gross margin there is stronger demand and higher prices for it consider me really intrigued not about trex, trex is done i missed that. trex's stock is already too high i'm using trex to find out about other ideas that might work. not trex itself. so, you have to dig deeper i keep going through the trex and i stumble on something exciting our data indicate that the north american consumer remains active in undertaking outdoor living projects and that generally contractors have strong back logs entering thebusiest part of the season. wait a second, i think strong backlogs? contractors? that's a genesis and a good idea you would suggest they wouldn't

have strong backlogs because of the 500 basis points that jay powell is giving us. rate tightening symbol they should be losing business, not gaining business but it's not enough to just have that idea. you want a relatively undiscovered or maybe an idea is great. then i check the wall street research to see if this contract about contractor backlog is well known. i see nothing of import. that is good now i'm beginning to think, maybe we should be buying or thinking about buying home depot and lowe's they report soon maybe there is something there up this trex call. maybe one of those two are worth buying wait a second. maybe trex is an oddity. maybe it's just crushing it and killing a competitor maybe it's not good for the industry we need to do another check. a decking check. this time we go to azek, another company on the show. that is trex's high end competitor i pick up the azek conference call i ghet quote from the cfo.

it jumps out from a macro perspective, we're seeing a more constructive environment in our residential business year to date. while experiencing more challenging environment for our commercial segment he then gives you another clue residential demand is modestly better than our original assumptions. residential inventory is at levels well below 2017 to 2019 yes! that is good not conclusive but it's good to know that it's the commercial for housing but not commercial in big buildings. we don't like commercial real estate you hear that all the time we want house construction and we're hearing good things now from both trex and we're hearing it from azek so now we have to figure out whether we want to buy home depot or lowe's? then you have to marry that information with two recent conference calls of other industries that also sell into those stores how about stanley? black & decker and ppg now these are both fantastic

resources. april 21st, ppg ceo answered a question about professional pa paint contractors saying back logs are robust and despite what is happening in construction, the back logs remain strong. yes! that is terrific that confirms my trex-azak thesis now go to stanley and black & decker they give us more. may 4th, the ceo explains, quote, the trend around probe is very healthy we're not seeing any major shifts in that dynamic even as he said the consumer side, do it yourself is tepid. so now i'm starting to think, if i piece it all together. the professional contractors working on residential homes are contrary to popular opinion doing quite well much better than expected. not the do it yourselfer we go through the read through this is where you really got to be thinking. now all you process all your information. contractors, where do they go?

they do most of the shopping at home depot lowe's is more consumer. they do more do it yourself. the ceo is working hard to bring it into more pros. still, you want to bet on contractors who do home refurbishment and construction, you have got to be betting on home depot could there be a good trade here going into earnings? only if our thesis runs contrary to current wall street research. otherwise, it will be priced into the stock are peoplethinking like i am no because i checked wall street research for both home depot and lowe's and it's negative they're note doing well. remember, if everybody already liked home depot, there is no opportunity. the research indicates that there is a distaste for the stock. and that may create a terrific setup. you don't want to just slap on a trade because you finished your work home depot reports on the 16th that is the catalyst but we're still a week away from the 16th between then and now, we're going to get negative story right about the debt ceiling,

some bear bank, drag the whole market down. based on my work, i'm tempted to wait for that pull back and buy that stock for a trade right now stock is 2% yield. $15 billion in buy back. i like that. then i check the chart yes, the chart i can see it's at a cross roads. potential head and shoulder could be developing. but if the stock holds right here and then turns up slightly, the pattern changes to something more hospitable. i care enough about the charts to look. so many traders take their cue from them. here's what i do if you want to trade at all, don't forget this kind of short term bet is totally optional i am using it to demonstrate the spr process of low risk idea generation if it we get a market wide selloff since the sell of home depot lower, then i'm tempted to buy it ahead of the quarter once i have gone through this checklist. bottom line, there is something more important than buying home depot that i'm demonstrating to you. i'm demonstrating the craft itself

i can't guarantee a win with this maybe the whole exercise produces nothing can't win them all but if can you get into home depot at a lower level based on the exercise i just went through, let me tell you something, it could very much be worth a shot and that's how it's done joe in new jersey. joe? >> hello, mr. cramer thank you for taking my call and thank you for all that you do for us and for especially stressing on the importance of div diversifiation >> absolutely. i like individual funds and stock picking. >> i own qualcomm for a couple years now. and with the weakness in sales to apple, should i still hold on to it? >> i don't want you to own that stock. i listened to skyworks last night. it's a good company. much better than qualcomm. qual coqualcomm is doing poorly here's my word on qualcomm

three words, sell, sell, sell. i can't guarantee you a win with what i went through with the stock with home depot. i do believe getting a stock at a lower level. it may be worth a shot speaking of stocks at lower levels, fitness is behind your fitness boutique brands. maybe pull back. let's work it out together i'm checking with the ceo. how could the strength of the dollar affect the assets of qualities? i'm going off the charts to find out and you'll be surprised about the interest yesterday, by the way, i told you the travel and leisure showing strength so could boeing fit in that thesis of trying to figure out if we have economic activity here let's get a read on the space with the ceo of brunswick. so stay with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money. follow us on twitter have a question? tweet cramer

#madtweets second jim an e-mail or give us a call.

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what do we do with fitness gym brands a once great stock pulled back lately i've been recommended this one repeatedly it's up 30% since we last spoke to the ceo in november the stock pulled back 12% over the past week. why? when xponential reported, some didn't care for it i don't think it was a bad quarter. they came in light two cent loss. wall street looking for 16 cent gain we'll go into that they put up 20% same-store sales

growth, that's what i care about. people expecting 15% still, given how much the stock had run going into the quarter, is it safe to circle back? let's talk to the ceo of xponential fitness lack back. >> thank you for having me >> so, i know i saw the same-store sales number and liked it. some analysts are concerned about the earnings per share number how i do reconcile the fact that the same-store sales were a total blowout with the fact that analysts may not have thought that numbers were as good as expected >> calculation in the earnings per share. some of the analysts are having trouble in the table deciphering the share count and things of that nature. we've been working with them to give them clarity. you're right, same-store sales up 17% 20% in q 3 and q 4

so to be up 20% on the back of that is phenomenal used to comp at 8% precovid. >> right i think some of that is you support your brands. but also people need to realize you're not putting 10 of your brands within the same mile of each other you have very strict rules if if i were to be -- let's say i want to be in stride fitness or i want to be in yogasix or club palaties, you won't let another three club pa laties nex to me. >> no. we're only selling a little over 1,000 club palates nationwide. and, so, continuing to push on the auv as a club palates that start at 250,000 originally and more than tripled. >> now, you also for people who want to do it at home, they can do it at home. they don't have to -- some of the stores are small you like that. right? you like the boutique nature of your gyms. >> absolutely. average store is about 1500 to

2,000 square feet. they fit great in grocery and anchored retail shopping centers. we have a digital offering on the omni channel we want to match where our customer is, whether they're on princess cruises in it front of an lg television at a hyatt hilton or, you know, working out at home. >> now the pipeline would indicate that, tell me if i'm wrong, you must be a much sought after tenant at a lot of these real estate investment trusts strip malls. and regular shopping center, right? >> absolutely. the icsc show in a couple weeks in las vegas for instance, during covid, we signed 500 leases. we still opened 350 stores you know -- >> how many other places closed of your competitors without naming any closed during covid? >> about 30% of the market closed we grew by 35% during the same time period. >> somebody is listening now they say, you know what? i like that. i want to have a bft it's not that simple there is a long process. go through the steps

i thought that was very interesting. >> yeah. sure of course, we're doing background checks. liquidity checks and things like that calls with me actually i did one from the floor of the new york stock exchange today with all perspective candidates. they're in the pipeline for this month. again, get on calls with franchisees and team and management bring them out to our southern california headquarters. they spend two days there. we get to know them. they get to know what they're going to have to do over the next six months as a franchisee, it's an education process. everybody goes into it eyes wide open >> you do expect, you spent since 2015, there are stores, 600 that closed. that's not so bad given the fact that how many you have >> we actually never had a closure. >> i mean there is that -- it's not a closure so much that you had guys that -- it was a footnote that said 600. >> so they transfer. >> transfer. >> people will transfer. so they may open one, two, or three and then sell off their fourth right or something like that >> so if i open one, and i don't want it, i can then sell it back

to you or -- >> no, sell it to somebody else. we do the transfers as people sell out of the system much like people buy a stock and they may be in it for three, four, five years and sell it to someone else. >> someone may buy it for x. have you ever had to terminate anybody? >> no. we -- we'll terminate people that haven't gotten open in time right? but as far as people that are open, they typically just transfer to somebody else. they may nbt business for a couple years and they sell at 3 1/2 to 4 times ebita >> i think is such a great business model i presume that if i could meet your criteria and i had your money, i might be buying a stock, basically, at $250,000. that could go to $508,000. these all appreciated nur your watch? >> absolutely. >> i guess the analyst doesn't understand the, like you said, the share count. to me, this is just a fabulous business it's because it's boutique it's very different from the other guys

and the franchisees are very well capitalized zbrchlt we only accept 2% of the lead flow we're dealing with the best of the best from day one and then supporting them and putting them in great location ands growing >> so if you kocould, i could flip i could make more money on the way out? >> absolutely. it's a business like any other business you buy a it, grow it. >> most of the other franchises do not make a lot of money they do well they can't buy and then sell -- this is an extraordinary model all right. i want to thank you. now we had so many of these come public and very rarely have i ever said that it's worth owning the stock. and this is one of those cases "mad money" is back after the break. >> coming up, a new take on the value of a dollar? cramer goes off the charts to track the usd next

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we spend a ton of time hearing about the negatives. inflation too high, headed to a fed mandated recession we may have more bank failures and the government could default on the obligations these are all legitimate things to be worried about. but there is at least one part of the big picture that is extremely positive it doesn't get enough attention. i'm talking about the weakening dollar american companies operated overseas love nothing more than a weak currency. the foreign rev kneenues can goc into a strong dollar a weak currency makes manufacturers more competitive most important though, when the dollar goes down, stocks tend to go up. that's why tonight we're going off the charts with a brilliant technician she is the co-founder of decarly trading and author of "higher

probability commodity training" and our resident currency expert for months, she's been telling us as long as the green back gets hit, stock prices should keep heading higher. she's been right she doesn't see this pattern changing any time soon as long as the dollar remains sluggish, she says the path of the least resistance is higher for most dollar denominated assets like u.s. stocks garner points out that the dollar is consolidated after a significant slide. every time they try to mount a meaningful rally, well, it fizzles. keeps failing. that matters this is not a pretty chart for the dollar which is great news for the market you know where we want it to be. if we're stockholders. the general rule of thumb is that the leads to higher stock

prices look at the action the dollar peaked in october okay since then, they've been operating with a positive negative correlation garner knows that many other dollar denominated assets are getting hit. agriculture commodities, crude oil, and natural gas have all gone down in lock step at some point garner thinks commodities need to be priced higher to account for the weaker dollar she's paying that sooner than later. at the same time, she sees stock prices continuing to get a boost from the currency fluctuations regardless of where you are about bank failures or debt ceiling if, the dollar index breaks down below 100, garner says that's very good for the stock market when we had all the reporters that just reported, holy cow they were all hurt by the dollar translation. we take out this level it's going to be a different narrative entirely so how likely is it that the dollar will break down there looking back at the history, the

dollar entered a bear market in early 2000 go all the way back here it didn't end until we reached the low 70s. stocks and commodities came in right around the time the dollar bottomed in 2008 of that's when we had this major rally. the dollar is so important now today the dollar index is a little over 100. that is relatively expensive even for the big decline since last october garner thinks the dollar investment is down to 98 sooner rather than later. that will be, you know, just a little drop right here a longer term she sees it could head towards the low 90s all sequel that is the reason in itself for stocks to keep grinding higher particularly stocks that we talk about a lot on "mad money. stocks have a lot of business overseas speaking of stocks, check out motley chart on the s&p 500. now we always hear people chanting the sell a man go away. garner points out this hasn't

really worked. for the last five years, we have the steady low volatility rallies during the summer doldrums we've had good rallies in the summer months. at the same time, when you look at the s&p 500 futures traders, they're sitting on one of the largest net short positions in history. in other words, people have been very aggressively against the stock market so if we get any lift at all, garner expects that to fuel a wave of short covering which will then lead to a bigger upside that puts the s&p 500 futures at 2.70 okay, right here we have a breakout above that level. get very, very exciting. longer term she wouldn't be surprised if they make the way to 5,070 i don't know a single strategist that thinks kit go that high i know it might sound crazy you to there is so much that is wrong with our economy practically everybody you hear

from has been unrelentlessly negative about the market. but for garner that, pervasive negativity is one more reason to bet on rallies will rallies is what you get when there is nobody left to sell that will be some target okay how about the price of oil you know she talks about oil quite a bit. given that crude is falling to $72 and change isn't that a horrific signal for the economy and stock market don't we always associate that with recession not so fast. take a gander at the monthly chart of west texas intermediate fruit. we saw big melton in oil last week boom but that is less about the fundamentals and more about traders being caught on the wrong foot tons of money managers bought oil not too long ago whether we heard about the opec production cuts we had the big spike they got spooked out now garner expects them to scramble to get long again between the weaker dollar and opec oil production. she is feeling bullish on oil. again, something most people

don't feel like. er since the show revolution and can you see, ever since the shale revolution, opec hasn't had much influence over oil prices there was too much cheap crude coming from america. that is how we ended up with a horrific multiyear bear market from 2014 through the beginning of the pandemic. that's when you have to think about that that's the multiyear bear market as garner sees it, opec stuck back -- struck back in early 2020 flushing the market to gel the shale producers from spending more money. drilling here. they basically scared american oil dmpz into being disciplined about the production they still are these days she thinks that $60 or so oil is the pain threshold. that's where they'll step in to cut production and boost prices in a serious fashion can y you can see this on motley chart. she's very bullish on oil right here i am that, too we've been buying some for the trust. you can follow that if you

belong to the cnbc investing club we put money to work in oil. bottom line, the charts are crystal clear. a weaker dollar is better for stock and that's exactly what garner is expecting. as long as green back doesn't make a comeback, remember, she is bearish on the dollar, she thinks it will be difficult to trade dramatically lower even oil prices should get a nice currency related boost. middle of that economic chaos, about g. to get back to basics the basics are favorable to the stock market again, what are we trying to do? we're trying to cut against the conventional wisdom that the market must go down here because we don't have enough indicators in our own world that say that should happen let's go to ricky in pennsylvania ricky? >> boo-yah, jim. how are you? >> i'm good. how about you? >> i'm doing great >> fantastic how i can help >> how you feel about carvana?

>> i think that is -- we cal that a short squeeze it got through the troubles. i would say that a lot of these heavily shorted names are getting a little lift here and carvanna can go higher remember, he can don't like stocks losing a lot of -- companies losing a lot of money. ricky, my advice is ride that a little longer. it is losing a lot of money. that is not our cup of tea let's go to dede in it florida >> hi, jim h love your show i want to thank you and your staff for helping us navigate this turbulent market. >> thank you my staff is so fabulous. how i can help >> well, i bought docusign in april of 2020. i'm down 53% my question is, hold it or fold it >> i think that this is a company that has been as weathered a lot, frankly and like a lot of stocks, like a

carvana and upstart and affirm, i think that they have been through enough and because they're starting to make money, like docusign, i'm not as negative. i think docusign can go up after being down 27% last year i think it could have a 10% move but at that point, guess what? you're going to have to go all right. i'm describing a lot of stocks to people heavily shorting and i don't think that they're going to go down as much as people think i like the market. all right. the charts are interpreted by carly garner tells us the weaker dollar is terrific for stocks. one reason i want to bring her work to you tonight. amid all the economic chaos, it is good to get back to basics now and then right now basics are favorable to the stock market. and too many people who are shorting it. now there is much more "mad money" ahead including a boating stock. so now that world is returning to normal, where is the industry

stand in enduring a rate cycle tightening i'm talking to the ceo i'm giving you a plan on how to aplight biggest lessons to this market that is the lightning round. so stay with cramer.

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how? benefi how do you choose?ance. how do you choose the ones you save? he's coming for you with everything. dom! can't save 'em all. stocks that wouldn't normally work at this point in the business cycle they're doing fine this is what we're sca

y,y,wawaththe e me, by the way, me understand some of the language that's being used because i think it is confusing. as i understand it, and please correct me if i'm wrong, there was a 22% increase, proposed increase in the veterans affairs administration budget. we all want to help the veterans we know that the republican proposal, again, as i understand it, would simply go back to the previous year just take it back to where we were in 2022, which is being called by chuck schumer and president biden a, quote, cut. are a lot of these cuts actually just reductions of planned increases or do they actually cut from last year's