details are ahead. stock futures are relatively flat if we don't pay our debts, it's one thing. inflation data, much more important. it probably is we'll get the latest read at 8:30. plus a new warning from famed stan druckenmiller he's bracing for a hard landing. it's may 10th, 2023 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on c cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square, yay. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is on assign management this morning he's going to join us a little later in the show. you can see there are modest declines dow futures off by 30 points,

nasdaq down by 23 points, s&p futures off by 5 points. if you look at the treasury yields, that's the markets we're watching right now the 2-year above 4%. 4.049% on today's squawk planner there is a key read on inflation it's going to be the april consumer price index which is expected to show a rise of 0.4% of 1%. that would be up from 0.1% interest march cpi data due we'll bring you some predictions a little later this hour. famed money maker stan drug miller believes the u.s. is teetering on the brink of recession and he he's predicting a hard landing he was speaking yesterday at the conference he said the downturn could occur sometime during the second quarter, as early as that. he set several factors for his forecasting including weaker

sales and turmoil in the regional banks. >> i am not predicting something worse than 2008, so i don't want to see headlines tomorrow that i said something worse than 2008 is coming, but i think it's naive to not be open-minded to some sort of possibility to that effect. >> drug miller defines a hard landing as unemployment topping 5%, corporate profits slumping at least 20% and a rise in bankruptcies he said policy makers have less wiggle room than in previous economic cycles. kind of some additional thinking from stan yesterday versus what he said at alpha when was that? >> september >> my son remembers exact datesle. i don't remember years when was delivering alpha, do you know, mac?

>> it used to be july. >> anyway, he said -- he was pretty sobering for that half hour that he spoke, just about, you know, teen next ten years could be muted given how much debt has built up. he's been talking for a long time about the fed staying at zero for so long. >> stan tends to be bearish, and he will tell you that. >> not always. not always while people were saying he was bearer, he was long on the tech stocks you can't be bearish and make 35 over 25 years. >> bearish in terms of what's happening. >> recently. >> he's always looking for the potential for bad things to happen that's how traders make their money, when mistakes are made. >> it's a lot of times when policy mistakes are made and with central bankers >> that's been the case since we've been at zero for sure. >> when you hit a financial crisis followed by the pandemic,

you've got good excuses for say staying at zero for so long. again it was sobering -- i'll use that word a lot -- people are saying, no, this isn't 2008, 2009, how many people knew prior to 2008, 2009 what was coming? so it's hard to know, you know, for sure i haven't spoken to him specifically about what he said at the conference, but i remember a lot of people in the audience at delivering alpha were just groaning with a lot of the long-term -- we've had 40 years of great stockmarket activity a 10-year period would not be unheard of to have a less than -- to have some type of regression or reversion now. >> not at all. just a week ago he gave a speech at usc to some of the students there where he talked about

concerns over debt levels we've built up in our nation >> entitlement is another thing he talked about yesterday as well speak of usc -- >> i went there, i know. >> she did nova football, do you think h e's know who's going to be on the basketball team? >> no. >> lebron james son, braun in, and he's going to play with dennis rodman's son. >> no way. >> i think they'll be good if not good, it's exciting. >> it will be something to see when you watch -- you see pat zajac sitting there and nicholson and zas occasionally >> i've seen him

let's talk about rivian too. >> i know. i changed the subject. >> shares of rivian are higher this morning, about 6 1/3% the first quarter losses with narrower than expected and rivian said it's still on track to meet a production tuct for it the ceo rj ska rinch is going to be joining phil lebeau this morning. shares beat street estimates because of the software and cloud computing segments you see the stock up by 5% we're going to be talking to the ceo tom leighton at the bottom of the hour. it's going to be a first interview on cnbc. it's been a while since we talked to him. >> shares of airbnb beat

estimates. the current quarter guidance is the problem here, a fly in the ointment, down about 14% the street lower than what was expected ceo brian chesky says the company faces tough comps in the second quarter because of a surge in demand a year ago quarter following the omicron variant >> i guess in other words it means it was not normal for people to be rejt places and really wanting to get out and escape even when they were working from home all the time maybe there a are fewer people able to say i'm going to take off for a month and work from wherever i want. >> i guess there was a time you didn't want to walk through a hotel lobby either. >> right. >> you wanted to be on your own little -- sleeping in other people's skeevy sheets, but chesky is going to talk in the 11:00 a.m. hour. >> i've done airbnbs.

>> you don't mind bedbugs? >> no more than a hotel. >> hotels are gross too. >> grocer. depends where you're going if you're going for three weeks or a month, i think people were doing airbnbs and saying i can do what i want. >> do you run the whole room with a black light >> no. >> you don't want to know? >> no. i did bring my slippers with me. >> oh, my god. shares of -- i see people in the sauna. i just -- i don't care. >> you're the reason the rest of us wear slippers >> exactly exactly. and cover up no, don't do that either even out at -- remember -- >> there was an eyeful. >> hey, it's a locker room don't look got a problem, don't look. >> you were demanding. >> no. >> okay, boomer. >> i don't care.

i do you know the percentage of assets millennials own? 5% they're killing it. >> they can. >> living at home. >> having a look at your nasty junk. >> junk. shares of affirm holdings are sinking. quarterly revenue beat estimates -- and there's gravity -- and guidance came in better than expected, but losses for the buy now/pay later service more than tripled from the year ago quarter. investors are concerned about how they'll fair in a higher interest environmental and weaker economy the company is also facinging stiff new competition from app >> let's transition here shares of electronic arts are higher earnings of $1.77 a share beat estimates of $1.34 revenue beat expectations. the fifa soccer game outperformed the franchise grew by 31% year over year. that stock up by about 2.5%.

when we return, no breakthrough at yesterday's white house meeting on the debt ceiling. we'll take you live to washington right after this break. and later don't miss our exclusive interview with the ftc chair lina khan. she's going to be talking about the scrutiny of artificial intelligence and much more you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together can help you make smarter decisions. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean-

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. no-no deal in washington after a meeting with president biden and the big four lawmakers from the hill kayla tausche joins us with more on that. kayla, good morning. >> good morning, becky president biden and congressional leaders for over an hour trying to come up with a process. in last-minute remarks yesterday evening the president saids he ee open to spending cuts so long as the debt ceiling is raised separately. >> i told congressional lee leaders i'm prepared to begin a separate discussion about my budget but not under the threat of default. >> among staff and principals this week. in fact, he invited leaders back to the white house for another

meeting this friday. he said there's a long way to go and there's no love loss between him and house speaker kevin mccarthy and described the progress as no movement. >> everybody in this meeting reiterated the positions they were at. i didn't see any new movement. the president said the staff should get back together i was very clear with the president. we have now just two weeks to go if chuck schumer can pass something, we'd go to conference right away and solve that. >> right now there's not support in the senate to -- in the senate to support the spending bill that the house gop passed two weeks ago. there's also not support for the clean debt limit raised that schumer himself raised so there will need to be a new agreement reached that both sides can get comfortable with they committed the u.s. would not default on its debt under any circumstance but the question is still what can happen in the next three weeks

that ensures that outcome. becky. >> kayla, thank you. joining us right now is former senior adviser to house democratic leader hakim jeffries, michael hardaway, he's the publisher of the hardaway wire and pete kumar who served with mitch mcconnell he's now the washington tax leader's co-leader and welcome to both of you michael, i think you think that things are pretty dire, maybe more dire than you've ever seen. >> i have real concerns. i think this is not 2011 you don't have john boehner leading the house republicans and you have a situation where kevin mccarthy cut a deal to become speaker where at any given time one member of his conference can recall him, and that's problematic that's a real problem. so if you're a president and you're negotiating with plchl

mccarthy, does that hold when you get back to the capitol? that's not clear. >> do you think there's a reason to be more optimistic about things because the staffs are still talking? >> a couple of things. the staffs are still talking and while we can engage in this collective fix that they're having a discussion and we know if they reach agreement, they'll travel together. i'm optimistic because i lived through this in 2011 i remember within four days we had no agreement and then in the 72-hour limit we passed something. i have seen and lived it i know we've come close in the past and managed to get through the worst of the worst and hope for that this time around. >> i certainly hope that's the case but to michael's point, the idea in the past maybe you were

dealing with boehner or pelosi or who really did have a strong grip on their caucus if that's not the case with kevin mccarthy, how concerning is that? >> you know, i think it's sort of the role of the freedom caucus has been somewhat overstated in this >> i don't think it's a freedom caucus. >> whatever caucus, you're not going to get 218 republicans to vote for the campo miced agreement, not at with a democratic senate and not with a democrat in the white house. and so i think speaker mccarthy has been clear you know, there's going to be some spending reductions as part of the exercise, but house republicans will vote to raise the debt limb. it won't be all of them at the end of the day i'm assuming, but i suppose i could be wrong about this, if the president is endorsing the package, that you're getting an overwhelming number of house and democrats moving four. so you're not going to need 218

house republicans. you'll need some but not all of them. >> along those lines, michael, i think before the speaker was able to wrangle surprisingly to a lot of people and i think to the sh grchagrin of a lot of democrats when he got to it, you seem like you're living in the past saying he was able to do i. to say, well, no one trusted he could get these guys all aligned, he got them in line that was a game-changer at that time because at that point the president and all of his allies can't say where is it, mccarthy. it's there he did it. to say he doesn't have any power and can't wrangle them, he already accomplished that. he needs to come to the present, not hope what could have been in the past. >> i'm glad he got the 218 on the 15th try

i will say that is not the reason i think i have concerns here i thinkty one reason i have concerns is that any one member of his conference at any time can force a recall vote on his speakership, and he is aware of that the question is if he's negotiating with the president and democrats on any of these things, is he afraid to go back to his conference and try to force a vote of some particular issue they may not support knowing that they then have repercussions concerning his speakership? >> one person can call it, but if he doesn't have enough people for it to happen, that's mute too. we know we've got some crazy republicans in the house at any given time that can happen, but it doesn't mean he'll be thrown out. isn't that right, rohit? >> it takes one to make a motion, but it takes 218 to remove a speaker let's say there are five that are unhappy.

that might be outcome-determinative, but that's only true if you assume every house democrat would vote to vacate the speakership if icht was in lee response to passing a debt limit bill that they're going for and the president wanted to sign i'm not sure that's automatic, that you would have all 213 democrats say, yeah, you helped get a bill to the president's desk and we're going to enjoy punishing you for that result. i think you would have to think carefully about what kind of incentives that creates going forward and you'd have to think carefully about who might the next speaker be, and would you like them. >> michael, you said yesterday you vote for a clean debt limit raise. do you think that's still the case or do you think there will be compromise? >> i think there should be come promy, but they should be

separate if you're dealing with your matter, you don't wait until you're evicted they want to fix the debt limit situation in the short term and have a larger conversation it's reasonable, by the way. >> they can't do that, michael how would that happen? there's no path to that -- i mean -- >> i disagree. >> i wish i was a tennis pro i'm terrible but there's no path to that. >> there is no -- there's a real path listen, i think from a democratic perspective, we all know that it's problematic, right? you've got $7.8 trillion in debt that was added in the last presidency alone everyone agrees with that. the real question is can we deal with it in a responsible way where in the short term we're not compromising the neigh's integrity to deal with the political issue. >> guys, we have to run, but a very quick achblnswer. odds that this deal gets done

and we don't have a default. michael, you first. >> 45/65. >> 45 that it gets done? >> i think it could get done i think there's a 45% chance. >> it's more likely it doesn't get done. >> yes, but that could change. you have staff meeting this week it's still early, three weeks out. it could happen. >> rohit >> i'm much more optimistic they'll get a deal done. it's less than 5%. it's not zero. i wish it was. but i think it's less than 5%. >> michael, rohit, thank you both. >> thank you. >> thank you. coming up, tucker carlson announced he's relaunching his show on twitter. i'll tell you what elon musk says about it. then we'll get you ready for today's inflation data due at 8:30 eastern countdown to that, fingers crossed. "squawk box" will be right back.

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tucker carl son said yesterday that he's relaunching his show on twitter. carlson was abruptly fired from his prime time post at fox "newsweek"s ago after the network paid a settlement to dominion voting systems in the defamation trial he accused mainstream media of lying public and said twitter is the last remaining platform in the world to allow free speech when asked for comment, fox didn't immediately respond

twitter responded with a poop emoji. i guess i need to get up to speed on the emojis. do you have a code where a button actually puts that on my -- can i get to the point -- >> if it's your most frequently used emoji, it's right there. >> is that true? >> if you go to emojis while you're doing it, it lists your most recently. >> no -- no kidding. that's amagd i could do that immediately. >> you can to do that. >> we all right said all this. poop emoji no kidding i'll use next time. don't tell me. i know i'm sorry. >> sounded like sorry not sorry. >> yeah, sorry not sorry twitter tweeted carlson would be subject to is same rules and rewards of all content they have not signed a deal of any kind

going to self-advertise. i don't know who feels -- i do respect tucker i look at his -- i used to watch. there are certain times where you need a voice that can really call things out. there are other times i was like -- it raised a few eyebrows because some of it gets out there a little bit trouble getting some advertisers even at 8:00 at knock. i don't know how you se self-advertise. >> elon musk came out yesterday and said he's not getting a different deal than any other content creator on the platform. there's no deal twitter is paying them or there's something else that's going on at least that's what elon musk said yesterday we'll see. he apparently walked away from deals for a lot more money at other places >> there's a lot of uncertainty. >> can he do it? >> i don't know. >> given the noncompete -- do you get to decide your

noncompete doesn't count anymore? fox is willing to pay him $20 million to stay quiet. >> past 2025, which is past the next election. he said that things that knock did already violated the contract, so the noncompete is -- >> sounds like a case for the lawyers to work out. >> he's got -- >> fox has good layers, too, but maybe the 787 million dollar settlement says otherwise. >> i still don't understand if you were going to -- i mean that had to be -- who was making all those decisions? i watched "succession" and it gives me an idea what goes on with companies if they knew everything was going to come out anyway, i don't know why he didn't settle a long, long time ago. eing comes out and then you set snl. >> i don't know. >> i don't either. in other news, elon musk

said encrypt will send out messages the acid testacy could not see your dms even if a gun is held to my head musk said voice and video calls would soon be added so users can talk to people anywhere in the world without giving them a phone number. when we get back, we'll get you tore's inflation day tachl we've got predictions next ja and during the month of may, cnbc is celebrating asian merge and pacific islanderser heritage, sharing stories with business leaders h here's farnoosh torashi. >> when you stay financially curious, that's when you can start to build wealth.

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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site from times square. it's coming. let's check the futures right now. dow futures down by about 28 points nasdaq futures off by 18 the s&p down by 5 points. we're counting down to the key inflation data at 8:30 a.m. eastern every month, but taking a lot more significance -- has gained a lot more significance in recent months with the fed. joining us to talk about the cpi number today, andrew is covering the market angle is it possible to try to, i

don't know, have a really firm idea about what to expect today from what's happening with the other numbers the past three weeks? what would you use do you have an algorithm do you have a crystal ball do you have a gut instinct is it going to be hot or cold today for the markets? >> i think it's going to be hot, but you're right no one has a crystal ball. no one knows how the numbers are going to come in there are a few different trends pushing things around. one thing to watch is used car prices that's not the most important price in the economy, but i has been a very important price in determining where core inflation numbers have come in it went up, but it's coming down shelter prices are going down. they're still strong, but they slowed from the rate of increase that they were running at

earlier. a few different trends here. at the end of the day, i think you want to look at nonshelter services that's where the strong demand is and the price increases are going to be. >> we've had a jobs report, wage gains, things like that. what about that sector, the labor sector and wage gains? is it a wage gains spiral? it's been a long time since we had one. a lot of it seemed supply chain related. >> yeah, we definitely started out with supply chain related issues, but you're keying on the most important die nachling here, which is that the supply train-driven goods-based inflation, that's really moved that's migrate this is a service sector inflation now. that will be a lot more dependent on labor you saw the jobs report on friday we're still adding jobs at a very healthy rate. that's good news for workers,

but the issue for workers is that wages are going up, prices are going up even faster than that it's interesting how you're going to bring the upper pressure on service prices down without some loosening of the labor market. >> anastasia, last week we looked like we were heading into a pull back from what were pretty good -- i mean the s&p was almost 4200 and a lot of people said we needed to shake out some of the complacency. there were some improvements, but friday we made back most of it we're right around there this week even debt ceiling talks staring us in the face is. there an air pocket under neath or is there a reason it's held up pretty well could the inflation data change that >> i believe there's an air important. there's a reason for resiliency, and that's the economic environmental still strong, the consumer is strong, and as lop as the unemployment rate is at

3.5%, that's going to continue but near term whey i'm worrying about is last week demonstrated the banking turmoil, the bank crisis is not over yet it could lead to more positive outflows and squeeze banks and as a result more credit tightening for the economy that's one part of it. that's one term risk the policy makers are sort of trying to address it, but they're not in a hurry and i worry the market will sooner or later rew e ath to that. the second part is the democrat creeling, which is really puzzling because if you look at the cds markets, you've got the surge much higher than we saw in 2011, for example, and yet if you look at the term structure of volatility in the u.s. equity market, that's sort of not buchlging. i worry, joe, of course, we

ultimately think the debt ceiling gets lifted because it would be unthinkable for it not to, but that path to eventually raising it may be rocky and that may produce market volatility that the markets are not positioning for. and then inflation i expect a mixed report where you might see a month over month increased cpi. the key, key measure for me and i think the other guest mentioned this, is super core services super x shelter ter, does that continue to decline or not? that's a wild card between those two things we're looking at the environmental with near-term risks that are poised to rise snoon drew, you haven't talked about the debt ceiling. i don't know how you handicap that it's troubling they take votes, it doesn't hold

up and all of a sudden the market sells off hard and that finally brings it to the table that happened in 2011 too. i think the s&p was down significantly until they did something. are they going to have to -- does the market have to break for these guys an gals to get together on this >> i hope not, but i think that's what we all remember from 2011 getting close to the final x date when treasury might have an issue in making payments and we track it on a daily basis and you're looking at inflows, outflows, treasury is looking at the same thing, the revenue numbers have been coming in a little bit softer. that does mean there could be a problem in june. maybe treasury would be able to make it to july but these are really uncomfortable statements to make that maybe you continue to pay your bills into july. i think along with everyone else we're hoping this something

congress can come toke and take care of before the market really has to push it. >> all right thank you. andrew of citi anastasia, we're listening in vain -- no, not in vain. we hear you. >> what song >> stones, man. >> thanks so much, appreciate it. >> thank you, andrew. >> you know that, anastasia. >> i thought about that song in the somehow thr morthis morning pleased to meet you. get to know my name. >> did you sing it or speak it >> i don't know. yesterday i woke up with "cocomelon." yesterday i thought of jerry hall. >> as a grouper.

>> no. pictures from studio 54. don't ask me why. when we come back, stocks on the move ahead of opening bell late e, don't miss our exclusive interview with ftc chair lina khan she'll talk artificial intelligence and a whole lot more a reminder you can follow us on your favorite podcast app and listen any time. we'll be right back. how do we show that we'll stand tall through the storms? nah. (thunder) how do we make our clients feel secure and- ugh... not lions. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. people who've been looking after people for over 170 years.

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some stocks to watch this morning. twilio shares are plunging by almost 17% that's nothing to laugh about. they beat expectations of 21 cents, but the revenue slightly above consensus, but the problem is the current quarter revenue forecast was short of the $1.05 billion that analysts had expected with today let's move twilio has now turned negative year to date you can see it's down by about 5%. shares of iac are sharply higher the company's revenue fell 18% from a year ago under weakness in advertising, but that was slightly above the street's estimate and earnings well above wall street's expectations, thanks to an unrealized gain in the company's stake in mgm

resorts. they bought that for $3 billion and it's now worth $2.8 billion. coming up, the ceo of akamai will join us the stock up 5% right now. a reminder you can watch or listen to us live any time >> if you only knew what we were talking about. >> that's on the cnbc app.

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akamai reporting first quarter results that weight wall street estimates after of the close yesterday. joining us right now for more on the results and the cybersecurity ecosystem is tom leighton, the ceo and co-founder of akamai technologies, and, tom, congratulations this was a pretty strong quarter for you all. i think maybe one of the more significant things to point out is that this is the first time that the security business actually performed -- outperformed the original internet bit, the internet infrastructure business that akamai was formed on. >> yes it is great to see us get off with such a strong start to the year and you're right, for the company that has long been known as the leader in content delivery, mass security is our largest product line if you count them together, it is now 57% of our business growing very rapidly so, really exciting to see these results. >> the computing segment is cloud computing? >> yes, that's correct as a result of the acquisition of lenode and the investments we're making to make that really

enterprise ready for mission critical workloads, and getting companies containers far closer to end users and enterprise data centers for better performance. >> that doesn't come cheap you added a new data center in the quarter too and you have plans to build more? >> yes, we added the one, but we have got about 14 coming over the next couple quarters a large buildout and that will enable us to take on much more business with major enterprise workloads. we already signed up some of the world's largest companies that are beginning to use the platform, and we're really excited about the future potential for that business. >> tom, just in terms of what you're hearing from customers, is there reluctance from some existing companies to spend more, is most of the growth coming from adding new people or new customers or is this a situation where even in times where companies are trying to rein in spending, they're willing to spend on this >> companies are pressed on spending right now and so that's just never a good

thing in general on the other hand, i think akamai is in a really good position as the leader in security, that's really important to companies now, especially in the financial sector the last thing they can afford is to have some kind of outage and, you know, spook people that maybe something is wrong with the financials and cause a run and so, that's where they're more likely to turn to akamai because of our security and reliability and also on the cloud computing side, we're in a position to help our customers save money and many of them have complained about the spiraling cloud costs. and because of our very large delivery platform and tremendous scale, we can do that more cost effectively, particularly for media, gaming and commerce companies that are trying to move a lot of data around. >> tom, if you have any concerns, what would they be is it looking at the broader outlook, looking at the economy, is it looking at competition what do you really spend most of

your time planning and plotting around >> you know, building out our akamai connected cloud, getting our compute functionality to be ready to really take on large amounts of mission critical workloads. security always a lot of effort going there, really excited with our new api security solution. obviously as you know that's a hot topic these days with security so it is really growing the company, staying ahead of not so much there is competition on us havely, obviously, but with security, it is staying ahead of the attackers. >> can artificial intelligence be used to keep off the attackers and are attackers using ai too >> we use ai and machine learning extensively in our solutions. and i think as you look forward that's going to be a big driver for compute cycles as well we could be at a time where we're taking a major step forward in terms of the technology and what it can do. >> what would be different in

terms of what it could do from the securities side and what it can do from the cloud computing side >> on the securities side, you know, we use it to identify anomalies, to identify, you know, attacks, and to do that very quickly so we can block it and alert it. on the compute side, you know, it is expensive. it needs a lot of compute cycles to process vast amounts of data and respond quickly to something happening. and as you see, you know, generative ai being used more and more common applications as you see iot and devices get deployed more, sensors, cars with all their functionality, that drives the need for a lot of compute and also to have real time response, which is something that we're focused on with our akamai connected cloud. and that's why we want to get the containers close to the devices and the end users so it can give real time responses. >> tom, want to thank you very much for being with us today i notice the stock is up 5%.

surprised by the street's reaction did you expect to see this >> well, you know, we raised our outlook for the year we're off it a very strong start on both the top and bottom line, so very encouraging signs. and even traffic, which has been a challenge in terms of the growth rate for the past year, we saw that tick up at the end of the first quarter so really across the board, strong signals >> all right thank you very much. great to see you, tom. >> thank you >> coming up, stan druckenmiller's new warning. and don't miss our exclusive interview with ftc chair lina khan she'll talk about regulatory scrutiny of artificial intelligence and l me. quk x"ill be right back.

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the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen with becky quick and andrew will join us in the next hour of "squawk box" with a special guest, ftc chair lina khan that's at 8:15 a.m. eastern time and it will be 5:15 a.m. i think where -- >> where andrew is. >> where andrew is so, kind of enjoying that. let's check the markets now as we countdown to the index. futures in the red, but nothing that is substantial at this point. got the cpi coming

look at one-month will at the bottom 5.827. that's the highest yield on the curve obviously. we'll look at the treasuries quickly. ten-year just above where it has been in recent sessions. 3.5. and the two-year back above 4% oil, at least, bounced off of -- if you're long, you like it above 70 but unable to hold, 72.89. bitcoin, once again, kind of being buffetted by what happens at some of the related companies. in this case, binance. and some of the issues that may or may not have read about recently 27,616 >> sam druckenmiller believes the comeconomy is on the brink a recession and he cites several factors for his forecast

including weakness in retail sales and turmoil in the regional banks speaking at the sone conference, he said the downcurve could occur during the second quarter. >> i am not predicting something worse than 2008. i don't want to see headlines tomorrow that i said something worse than 2008 is coming. but i think it is naive to not be open minded to some sort of possibility of that effect >> i think that's probably fair, being open minded about what could come from the situations that have been set up to this point. >> yeah. they're not just horrifically bad assets, but mispriced. >> mispriced. >> because of how the maturity versus -- >> how quickly -- how quickly the fed raised interest rates. >> so many people were at, you know, basically investing long-term at zero. >> if you had a business model that was at zero, that's not going to work. hopefully you adjusted with time you're seeing things getting washed out in the fray

corporate profits slumping at least 20% and a rise in bankruptcies, he said policymakers have less wiggle room than in previous economic cycles and you got the debt ceiling negotiations in the background too. >> exactly 5 or 5.1, that's hard, but pseudo, quasi -- i don't know what earnings are already down after the last couple -- '23, they weren't down but estimates were down. >> that was lower growth expected >> seeing bankruptcies or receiverships. >> banks going under. >> i'm surprised he said by the second quarter. >> that's right now. >> i know. >> if the downturn starts now, it doesn't mean recession necessarily. would it be the first quarter and then you see -- >> it just seems like things are, you know, things are still pretty good. >> yeah. but you also had somebody lay out some of the concerns yesterday that maybe it is as good as it has gotten. i will say we looked at every

quarter and thought this is good as it gets and hasn't proven to be the case yet. to frank holland now, a look at the premarket movers >> we're following earnings movers, airbnb, shares of airbnb, we'll show it to you in a second, they're sliding on weak outlook, you see down almost 14% the company also flagging a slowdown in its bookings for nights and experiences segment the company saying it had a strong start to the year, looking forward to another strong summer travel season, but warning against second quarter year over year comparisons as they overlap pent up demand following the pandemic you will talk a lot more about this, airbnb ceo brian chesky coming up -- not you guys, "squawk on the street" to discuss the quarter and the hospitality outlook. moving on, affirm also following the premarket despite a beat on revenue, and guidance that was above estimates. you see it is down this morning, almost 7%. and investors appear to be concerned about the business

model, the buy now, pay later company, in the face of we weakening economic conditions, higher rates and elevated inflation. also looking at the video game segment, electronic arts now, you can see it is higher after a beat on revenue, also a four cent loss that our data team says is not comparable to estimates. the company said fifa, the soccer video game franchise, was a driver for the quarter revenue grew by 31% year over year, ea said apex legends also exceeded expectations. i don't know if you ever play fifa, i play with richmond, if you're a ted lasso fan, it is a lot of fun. >> i need to catch up on my ted lasso. still dealing with the whole football versus football controversy. >> you're on episode one then. >> but can't we just call one soccer and the other football? >> we do, joe. we call it soccer and football -- >> can we get a global rule,

just to clear that up? and i've always said, you know -- >> they have the upper hand on it, really football should be the one you play with your feet. >> good point, becky that's a powerful argument. >> that's -- therein lies the whole problem. the lack of scoring. i've always said you should be able to use your hands >> you're really troubled by the nba playoffs because they don't use a basket there is a still rim with a net. >> all right thank you, frank >> thank you >> see you later in the show. president biden is meeting with congressional leaders on the debt ceiling impasse yielding little progress kevin mccarthy saying there is no new movement while railing against the president's continued insistence on a clean debt ceiling increase and big four set to reconvene with the president on friday as the threat of default looms over the economy. joining us now is jake sherman, punch bowl news founder, also an nbc news and msnbc contributor

not what you thought yesterday we talked to you yesterday the first foray, 90 days since the speaker -- wait 90 days, this is the first, you know, you get back together, and this is what we come away with they're meeting again on friday. more progress on friday, you figure >> well, i don't think so, to be honest with you. the staff will meet. yesterday would be a success if the staff were meeting this week i think we got that locked up. i talked to a lot of the staff yesterday. they don't know what they're meeting about in the sense that biden continues to call for a clean debt ceiling increase as does chuck schumer and a separate negotiation on the budget and kevin mccarthy and mitch mcconnell have the exact opposite point of view so they're going to spend the next two days talking. and then they're going to get back in the room on friday here is the scary thing, i would say. the meeting, which we reported a bunch of in punch bowl news this morning was not very different from the public kind of

acrimonious back and forth between mccarthy, biden, schumer and mcconnell and hakeem jeffries, the house democratic leader so, mccarthy told me yesterday he needs a deal in principle by next week or else this we're going to go past june 1st. a deal in principle by next week seems charitiably very far off at the moment, considering they're not even sure what they're talking about right now. >> i know. the -- no one is really specifically saying what it would look like -- you could say it is a clean deal, and say that -- but we're including the spending cuts. you could say that that's what it is going to have to be. it is going to have to be negotiation. i don't know is advising the president on whether -- did you say yesterday he was a dealmaker? that was a long time ago because he -- >> long time ago, yes. that was a long time ago. >> what does a clean raise look like at this point mccarnthy would have to do a

clean -- to put it in a -- schumer can't do it. mccarthy would have to do it, he's not going to get a lot of republicans that don't want to do it, he has to get a bunch of democrats on board, right, and then it would have to come to schumer and how is schumer going to get those 43 republicans that aren't going to do that, how is he going -- how do you do a clean debt raise at this point it is impossible. >> a basic clean debt ceiling increase will not pass and would be chaos that would be just a stand alone clean debt ceiling is dead on arrival. >> if someone -- can you call -- do you have a line to president biden? does he know this? >> i don't know if he knows it i don't know if he knows it. what schumer is banking on, joe, is that mcconnell will somehow move senate republicans to a clean debt ceiling increase and then house republicans would follow i want to add one more caveat. the only way something like this would work, and i suspect this is what we'll see at the end of

the day, if there is a deal, what will happen, i think, is the house will pass the deal, the senate will pass it, biden will sign it and then they'll raise the debt ceiling in a clean way. that's an escape hatch for democrats. so basically cast a deal and then do a clean debt ceiling increase, which is not a clean debt ceiling increase, but, no, i mean, i don't see any situation before june 15th or something like that, where a clean debt ceiling can pass. even then, i have serious questions about whether it could pass the senate, it could pass the house and if it did pass the house, whether mccarthy could keep a speakership and whether he would put it on the floor, quite frankly. >> yesterday you saw the -- both sides and it was interesting, they're speaking to the -- at the same time and the cable news services had to switch from speaker mccarthy and the president started speaking, but it was a little frustrating for

me, anyway, jake, when i hear, all right, so the previous president increased the debt 40%. there was covid. there was covid. and president biden says i came in and lowered the deficit $1.7 trillion from the $4 trillion from the pit -- it is all just -- none of it is true it may be factually true, but it is just so loaded with so much spin and misleading innuendo that we're getting nowhere and i don't know -- i guess the other side will listen to mccarthy and say, listen to him, he raised -- it is not true that there were three clean raises during trump. there was a lot of negotiations with speaker pelosi and mnuchin back then. so they say that too and they just keep saying the same things over and over again, many of which are either misleading or not true >> yeah. well, listen, when mnuchin, pelosi and trump raised the debt

ceiling the last time, i think the last time, they increased spending the deal was not to cut spending, it was to increase spending that was a bit of a difference. >> but they -- it wasn't clean >> it was not clean. and actually to be honest with you, joe, i've been covering congress for a while, and most of the debt ceilings that i had seen had not been clean. some of them have been but, remember, 2011 was a -- was probably retrospectively the daner obama talks, that was some of the biggest deficit reduction we have ever seen. a huge deficit reduction package. the congress later undid later on in modern times, the debt ceiling is typically raised with negotiations yes, in the past, it wasn't this pressure valve that it had been. in the past, a lot of things are true, right? >> so is it anything other than, you know what is the old expression, why are you doing that because you can. you get 15 speaker votes, they know mccarthy has this issue,

you know, with one person being able to -- so the president, the white house knows they can continue to pound this, and insist on this, even though there has been negotiations in the past, but they do it because they can, because he's in a weak position that does not help the country >> well, joe, i'll say this, you know, at the end of 20 -- we're in '23 the end of '22, when the president controlled the senate, the house and the presidency, he did not raise the debt ceiling there were a lot of people at that time who were urging the president and then speaker nancy pelosi to raise the debt limit to avoid this problem. mccarthy told me in october, an interview that got a lot of publicity at the time, he was going to do this this was no secret that he was going to do it now, you can say republicans only do it when democrats are in the white house. there is truth to that, of course but he said he was going to hold the debt limit as a negotiating point. this is no surprise to anybody, and here we are, 21 or 22 days away from default day and there

is no progress. >> he said that, and then the white house says, no, you're not. and 22 months later, he's sayin it and the white house is saying, no, you're not. >> and mcconnell said, joe, mcconnell said joe, yesterday, elections have consequences and in 2019, mcconnell urged trump to talk to pelosi did the debt limit and now urging biden to talk to mccarthy about the debt limit. that's where we are. >> what is your twitter handle >> @jakesherman. anybody who is mad about what we're talking about, it is -- >> come to me. i'm very calm. i'm very measured on twitter so i, you know, that's where i am. >> good. i'm not. i'm not. i found a proof emoji and i used it ten times already jake, thanks see you later. @jakesherman. when we come back, a check on the health of the consumer. bank of america is out with new data and spending is showing

signs of slowing we'll break down the report next and check out shares of rivian they're higher after the evmaker reported a narrower than expected quarterly loss. that stock is up by 6.3% phil lebeau will bring us an exclusive interview with rivian's founderndeo a c "squawk box" will be right back. i remember when i first started flying, and we would experience turbulence. i would watch the flight attendants. if they're not nervous, then i'm not going to be nervous. financially, i'm the flight attendant in that situation. the relief that comes over people once they know they've got a guide to help them through, i definitely feel privileged to be in that position. ♪♪

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the bank of america institute released may's consumer checkpoint report just moments ago. credit and debit card spending year over year actually dropped 1.2% compared to april of last year this is the first negative reading since february of 2021 and joining us right now with more is liz everett crispburg, the head of the bank of america institute. thanks for coming in today. >> of course great to be here thank you for having me. >> emoji expert. >> compared to you, yes. >> compared to you, exactly. it is all relative >> this is a big deal. the idea that the numbers is actually down for first time since february 2021. what happened? >> i think a couple of things to look at. one, you clearly got unfavorable base effects here. if you look at the numbers o seasonally adjusted month over month basis, they were still positive but there are some signs of

softness if we dig into the data in particular, if we look at the sectors and how they performed we have been talking for quite some time about how it has been a service story. services are carrying us through. if you look individually at what was happening, the moderation was really broad-based across the board. and it was led by a decline in airlines so airline growth, spending growth was above 5%. it is now below 1% lodging, if you see airline going down, lodging, lodging was down 4.6%. we're not seeing the services carrying the day the way we had. >> should we tie this into what we just heard from airbnb, that they saw a big drop too? >> i saw that. i think that certainly fits in with the data that we're seeing. we're looking at it on a real time basis, looking at the data through april. but that certainly seems consistent. >> you get the sense this is people not being able to work from home anymore or work from anywhere anymore or more of a case where the consumer is starting to feel a pinch >> you kind of hit the nail on

the head here. you can't understand spending without understanding the labor market what we do at bank of america institute isn't just look at the spending data from the bank. we look at the consumer wholistically. we can understand income flows so direct deposit, after tax income, bonuses, other sorts of income coming into the accounts. what we found there is -- we saw last friday, the labor market seems strong and it is overall. we're seeing that overall. but if you break it down by income group, the higher income consumers inflows actually contracted last month. the second month in a row. so lower and middle income families they're still getting income gains of 2% to 3% the higher income households, their income is decreased by 1.3% that actually ties in also with the decline in services. because if you think about it, the top two quintals, top 40% of households drive over 60% of spending and where are they

spending it? on services. they're pulling back. >> that tells you a lot about the economy and the broader issues the one bright point in all of this, the savings rate is pretty decent >> absolutely. we always look at the savings rate are people running out of money, are they putting more on their credit cards and when we look at thats continue to be significantly elevated, relative to where they were before the pandemic across all income cohorts, deposit balances are up between 40% and 70%. 40% for the highest of income households, those making above 250, but 70% for those making 50,000 or below. >> we heard for a long time that extra save sings is going to recount at some point. people were getting money from the government during covid. >> we continue to look at this and we had seen excess savings decline, but if i look since the end of last summer, it has been relatively flat. this month we saw an uptick for

most households, but it was really more related to seasonal with tax refunds coming in more than anything else what is interesting, though, is if you ask the consumer and our colleagues who run the market landscape insight survey ask the consumer, not just our consumers, do they think that their rainy day fund will last them six months, we saw that tick down slightly in april. >> okay. >> not a lot and interestingly also that was very consistent with the reduction across all levels of income, but the consumer is clearly thinking, i think they're thinking that inflation is having an impact, it is eroding their spending so it will -- we're all paying attention at 8:30 to see how that -- >> you must know >> what the cpi number is? >> you must know if it is going to be hot or cold, have an opinion on -- >> on data. >> hot or cold >> i leave the hot or cold to our fantastic research team. >> do you have a opinion, though, based on all the data

you always have and all the stuff you know you're head of the institute for god's sakes. >> that's true i think, listen, i think it is going to come in line with what our -- >> you to? you do >> yeah. >> what can we know in the last month? we get the jobs number that gave us some insight into what this could be. >> again, but what i took away from this month's report is the distinction between higher income consumers who are starting to feel the pullback, where as the lower and middle income households where still experiencing the growth. >> liz, you have been pretty sanguine about any of the things that we pointed to and said maybe this could be a sign that the consumer is really starting to turn over do you still feel that way with the most latest information? >> i think, you know, listen, i think we're looking at the data and letting the data drive the discussion, which is really powerful but this pullback and the higher income consumer, they are

driving more of the spending is something we're going to keep our eyes on. >> liz, thank you. we appreciate it and we'll talk to you again soon, because this is really interesting stuff to dig through. coming up, disney on deck, the company getting ready to report results after the bell today. the magic kingdom facing a few more challenges this quarter myriad of challenges we're going to have a preview in the next half hour and will artificial intelligence really be the job killer that many expect it to be or will ai actually create more jobs? sounds like a challenge for jon fortt. he's going to break down all that in today's "on the other hand" segment. "squawk box" will be back in a moment >> time now for today's aflac trivia question. in 2006, google purchased youtube. how much was the deal? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" returns i could really get d to this retirement thing.

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>> bargain still to come this morning, evmaker rivian reporting a narrower than expected first quarter loss the company remains on track to meet vehicle production targets too. we're going to be speaking with the ceo in an exclusive interview. that's next. "squawk box" will be right back. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold, new thinking, ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪

all right, welcome back to "squawk box. we're right now just about an hour away in the release of the consumer price index for april that's right 59 minutes, 6 seconds away the futures now ahead of that are down, but slightly dow futures off by 52 points s&p off by 4 and the nasdaq turned positive, up by less than a point. if you have been watching the treasuries, like we have, you would know the ten-year is sitting actually just above 3.5% still, 3.501% and the two-year back at 4% got less than an hour to go and this is the number the market has been waiting for. evmaker rivian rolling out results after the bell last night and this morning, phil lebeau joins us with a special guest. hi, phil >> hi, becky r.j. scaringe, founder and ceo of rivian. here in the rivian point in

normal, illinois do you feel like you're making -- this is one of those quarters where we put up the result we need and we're working our way towards profitability by the end of next year >> yeah, for us we're just focused on continuing to deliver on ramping production, driving costs down, this is the core focus of the whole business and we're seeing results of a lot of work that has gone in over the last couple of months and couple of quarters leading into the ramp that we're now seeing >> you're not giving a number for the backlog. you got it at least through the end of this year it is the supply chain that remains a bit of a challenge where is the biggest challenge within the supply chain or does it kind of move around >> well, last year the supply chain was a real challenge it was moving around a lot now we really understand all our constraints. we launched our enduro drive unit, a new in-house developed drive unit it is going into the vans and already in the vans, going into the r-1 products shortly this

quarter. but that uses a different supplier for the power, so it diversifies the supply chain for how we look that the constraint and allows us to continue to ramp back up for this year. >> you mentioned the vans, you're building for amazon 100,000 ordered. and you already have delivered a number of them that's an exclusive relationship that you have with amazon. who is a backer of rivian. there was a question on the conference call yesterday, is that still an exclusive relationship with amazon >> a relationship that is still exclusive. but we are looking at how we can expand to customers beyond amazon and lots of active discussions there, working closely with amazon on the exclusivity and also with other potential customers to get them lined up >> it is possible. there may be down the road, not neither, but down the road, there may be other partners? >> absolutely. absolutely. >> you've been through a real roller coaster you look back at the last two years, you see how far your stock has fallen, and the sentiment changing amongst investors saying, i don't think

these guys are going to make it, what is it like when you're in the midst of that? >> when you think about the products we're building, the demand is generated, the excitement from customers, that's captured in so many ways. we see jd power with the highest level of customer satisfaction, rating of all brands truck of the year. multiple awarbds, vehicle of the year, best suvs every driven that fuels the energy in the plant. you see the energy here. we know we got with customers, excited about the product, very large backlog and our production ramp, we have a lot of confidence we look at it in share price moving around, not always rational. >> you hear the commentary you know there are people out there who are saying, come on, these guys, the startups, the ev startups are posers. they're not going to be here three, four, five years from now. when you hear that chatter, you have to hear some of it, what do you think? >> at the end of the day, what really matters is does a customer like the product and can we produce enough of it?

look at the best-selling vehicle in the price segment, nothing coming close in terms of volume. we're outselling everyone. and we see that with the production >> i quickly want to ask you about pricing. you made a point on the conference call yesterday, with the analysts to say we're not going to knock off the price on the r1t and r1s, you're seeing the average price increase, right? >> the average selling price for our vehicles has gone up and it will continue to climb as we work through new reservations and more so when we introduce new variants we have our max pack coming online this summer, our largest battery pack that will drive average price up of the vehicles and customers want the full content for the vehicle. they want everything they can get. they're really excited about the features we developed. >> the ev consumer out there, they're clamoring for that lower price model. you're not going to have the r2

until first half of '26. that's a long ways away. are you worried about the fact that you may be priced too high for the market >> i think we have to recognize the r1 product is fundamentally a flagship product it is designed to build the brand, it is designed not to do hundreds of thousands of units in volume. it is set up to be our handshake with the world and that initiates how customers think of us, the company, the brand, and that lays the foundation for us to then introduce r2 which will come at a lower price point. i have asymmetric information. i have seen r2, i know what it is like. we're bullish on the product we believe it captures the essence of rivian and the features, the brand we built but a smaller form factor and much more affordable price. >> r.j. scaringe, founder and ceo of rivian. when i drove into the plant today here in central illinois, it -- world -- 100% different compared to a year and a half ago. the place is packed.

far different than what we saw a year and ah half ago as rivian continues to build production. >> the new normal, normal, illinois. >> it is a status symbol you don't want a corvette, you want a rivian. check out this chart of microsoft companies, added about half a trillion dollars in market cap since announcing its investment in open ai in late january. the stock gained 27% today's edition of "on the other hand," will artificial intelligence create more jobs than it destroys or not jon fortt takes on ai in the labor market yet get the best of "squawk box" in st atit.as liennyme stay tuned hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star.

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ai's effect on workers still up in the air will ai create more middle class jobs or kill them and jon fortt is here to weigh in. you see hyperbolic things. some said five years from now, 80% of the jobs will be gone did you see that >> i have seen that. who knows really you have to ask ai how many jobs it is going to kill. joe, actually, it is going to end up creating more jobs than it destroys. ai is the automation of mental labor, the same way the industrial revolution brought us automation of physical labor, through machines in the process, yes, some jobs will go away, just like we don't have as many weaverers or carriage drivers employed today as we did 200 years ago, but more clothing stores and car sales people in a report in march, goldman sachs estimated two out of three u.s. jobs will have exposure to ai, especially in administrative and legal work why is this a good thing it will unlock creativity. a software ceo told me his customers use ai to scan new

legal documents and make sure they have all the correct stan da standard provisions. it will be faster. does that mean less demand for lawyers? if deals are getting done that much more quickly and deal volume increases, maybe not. it is always hard to see the opportunities new technology is going to create when we're at the beginning of the disruption. e-commerce is going to destroy local merchants and unique crafts until etsy and shopify emerged. creativity finds a way. >> not so fast is there a chance we could use or need less fewer lawyers is that a possibility? is that a possibility? >> shakespeare long ago was -- >> i'm kidding make fun of them until you need one. >> then you want a good one. as we have seen this week. >> is there another hand -- you only have one hand today >> always another hand, joe. yes. >> check out the prompter. >> oh, yeah, right

>> on the other hand, ai is going to kill more middle class jobs than it creates for a basic reason the kinds of jobs it is going to kill are the jobs people have right now. jobs it is going to create are the ones the companies are trying to hire for, but can't fill a good example here is google announcing this week that starting next month at a wendy's in columbus, ohio, an ai chat bottom bot will take orders at the drive through window mcdonald's alone has more than 12,000 drive throughs in the united states. jobs ai -- i know we like to traffic in this myth that technological progress always makes more jobs for everyone tell that to buffalo or scranton it doesn't it advances the benefit some people in the economy can leave others devastated for skr generations. the flipside of globalization, american factory workers found

themselves replaced by cheaper labor offshore the next 30 could be the flip side of ai, where american knowledge workers find them sexsex themselves replaced by ai bots on our best emails and phone calls, joe. >> and do you write these? can i think? i haven't been replaced yesterday, have i? i want to -- i think honestly, you know, a lot of -- i know all about this, this does feel like it might be more of a sea change, more of a major event to me and the question i keep asking, you take it to the logical conclusion, it is not just all jobs replaced, but all humans could be displaced and that's the science fiction i read and that is so compelling to think about. not just everybody is going to lose their jobs. bee we're not going to need humans at all. >> the upside is that will take a while, but the challenge here, i think is that education is

probably the answer. but you know how a lot of people have been telling kids, learn to code, most of the people who are not great at coding are going to be b or c level coders, i think that's the sort of coding that ai is going to do great. >> the concern is you can't educate your way out of this because the machine is always going to be faster and find different ways you can find niches where you need a human brain to check this out as the ai gets better, maybe that's less and less but maybe this is a lesson you need to craft. not a degree >> if you have to work with your hands -- >> i think the liberal arts are coming back. instead of telling people specialize, specialize, a lot of things ai is going to do better. >> to do what? i come from a liberal arts school, but what did we get trained to do? use chatgpt so you can send in your essays? >> i think understanding people, understanding things like negotiation, sales process, how people think, ai will have a harder time doing that on the

fly than somebody who understands different cultures, who understands, you know, that kind of context. but, you know, b level, c level code, ai will be able to generate that, i don't have to know how to code, i can say, hey, trim the code to do x, y, z and it already does some of that. >> if it is replacing the lawyers, those are people who spend an extra three years going through school after you graduate from a four-year school. >> going to be harder to give a charismatic closing argument than it is going to be to find case law and - >> you have to be best in your business. >> yes >> to breakthrough at any -- >> fortunately you guys are. >> that's probably questionable. big deal. >> it is i want to take this opportunity to plug the new "on the other hand" newsletter here is the qr code on the screen is it? yeah, it is. or type in cnbc.com/otoh get this in your inbox every week i'll send this one out in an

hour or two. get easy access to the "on the other hand" poll on linkedin every week weigh in, let me know which side you agree with more here are some interesting results from last week's topic should congress use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip to rein in spending people pretty split. 57% say no don't bargain with the debt ceiling. 43% say yes. cnbc.com/otoh. >> we're not stopping it might as well get used to it. >> the debt ceiling debate or -- >> ai. the horse has left the barn. the toothpaste is out of the tube. >> the genie is out of the bottle. >> the genie is out of the bottle >> want to add to this in. >> jon, thank you. >> thank you. when we come back, disney set to report results after the bell today and this comes as the ceo bob iger deals with multiple challenges outside the walls of the magic kingdom. the stock is up more than 11% since iger's return to ceo we'll have a preview of what to expect tonight next. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. twitter ceo elon musk tweeted yesterday that carlson would be subject to the same rules and rewards of all content creators and has not signed a deal of any

kind at this point. >> disney is set to report earnings today after the bell. investors will be eager to hear ceo bob iger adjust a myriad of chances facing the mouse house ap amid a lawsuit joining us right now is matt bellamy. >> most people want to start with the writers strike these days and the ceo response to the writers strike this earnings season has seemed to be we're okay, we're stockpiled, the writers should be paid what they're due but we're going to be okay and we'll see if b bob iger says the same thing

>> is netflix the biggest holdout in this situation? >> not necessarily the writers and the studios are not even talking right now the studios have basically moved on and are trying to make a deal with the director's union and the actors union, which both have their deals coming up in june as well if they can get a deal there, then they're going to go back to the writers and see if that can be a template for some kind of resolution with the writers. it is not looking good it could be months and months. >> you think the situation is better with the directors and the actors >> it could be the directors traditionally make deals when the writers strike and the directors are making noise about it's all about streaming wards. we -- wars there are some very specific writer issues like writers rooms and some of the things that are only negotiated by the writers

so they could still be on strike, even if the directors make a deal. >> do you think they're willing to sit out for a very long time? what was the last one, a hundred days, the last strike? >> it was a hundred days that would put us into labor day around the fall. most people think that we're looking at september, october before some kind of resolution >> matt, let's talk about the other issues, including this lawsuit with ron desantis. this is a pretty unique position that iger has now taken to actually go to court with the governor of an incredibly important state for disney >> absolutely. now, the difference here is iger believes that he has the moral high ground here and in past comments he's been very clear about how he believes that disney was retaliated against for expressing a political opinion on the florida legislation. i anticipate he's going to say something similar. the stakes now are much higher because they're in court in two different jurisdictions.

they're in federal court where disney sued and they're in state court where the board appointed by desantis sued disney. you may have to get into how they're going to resolve this and what the ultimate long game is for disney. >> in the meantime, a lot of questions about whether the parks are really price resistant, that they can withstand any pressures and continue to raise prices as they see fit, as they need for higher costs. that's the impression we got from the ceo of six flags when he was talking about it. what do you want to hear when it comes to iger when it comes to what they're seeing from consumers, especially at the parks. >> that's the big question the parks are going to have to prop up some of the other element of the country if this ad recession continues so far the parks have been resilient. i saw a commercial for 25% discount on rooms at walt disney

world. i haven't seen that in a long time. >> most of the time you can't get a room there >> right it suggested to me perhaps there's a little bit of weakness they're revisiting some of their annual past policies they suspended because the demand was so great at the parks there's a couple little things out there that they're probably going to have to address because if this, quote, recession keeps going, history shows it ultimately does impact these big theme parks >> matt, just in terms of other issues with iger, you think we'll hear anything about whether he's going to stick around longer, what his term might be, if he's made any progress looking for a successor? that seems like it's more complicated of a question than the time he has remaining on his contract >> it is it and i think there are so many more pressing issues right now. they're in the middle of this 7,000 person layoff and they have to really decide. the street wants them to cut

costs significantly. iger hasn't really said exactly where they're going to cut costs. are they going do fewer and more marvel shows, are they going to be in the adult-oriented entertainment interests with hulu and some of those shows he hasn't said the ultimate strategy >> hold on right now no one has ever said they're going into that business, have they >> i mean adult in the hulu sense of the world, not in the -- >> oh, grownup, which we're not. >> clearly >> we don't have time. >> i was going to ask you, this tucker stuff, is he going to get out? can he do this there, you're back can he do this >> clearly the strategy here is to go scorched earth on the

murdochs and to threaten them and to hopefully persuade them to let him out of his deal they had a pay-and-play deal with tucker carlson. they can continue to pay him and keep him under contract, which is reportedly $25 million a year if they have to go to twitter, good for him >> the ratings at 8 must be totally in the toilet, even though they're getting more advertisers. >> they are significantly down the interesting thing about tucker carlson going to twitter is elon has an advertiser problem on twitter they don't like the platform. and bringing someone over there that is so radioactive for advertisers doesn't really help that problem >> right thanks, matt good to you have back and talk about all that and all the other stuff. coming up, breaks news on inflation, the cpi for april will be released at 8:30 a.m. eastern time and an exclusive

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khan. good morning good signs of progress on a debt ceiling deal after that high-profile meeting at the white house. we've got the latest details straight ahead and how will the government look to regulate the exploding field of artificial intelligence we'll ask federal trade commission chair lina khan in an exclusive interview. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in sometimes square i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin who will join us later this morning with a big interview u.s. equities have worsened, nasdaq has been right around the flat line.

one little itty bitty piece of green in the lower right-hand side we are counting down to the april cpi coming out at 8:30 eastern time economists expecting the headline and core numbers to rise by 0.4% of a percentage point from march excluding food and energy, the number will rise 5.5% and will update year over year. combined with tom's orrow's reao producer numbers, it will help determine in the fed rate hike is working to slow the economy and headline cpi comes in bet between 5 and 5.2% excluding food and energy, i ll

laugh because it's excluded because it volatile. what do i need i need food and energy i can almost do without anything else >> but, yes, the idea is you need to know what the base level is because any given month -- >> you're sitting at home, a normal person saying you're backing out food and energy? >> yeah, you idiots. you're backing out everything from earnings but -- >> that's where you see the inflation. >> right >> shares of airbnb down by 15%. it the first time airbnb was profitable on a goes basis but they are combining to really pressure the shares this morning. they said second quarter

comparisons would be tough because it's overlapping from the pent-up demand from last year but they did say travelers are returning to major cities and also booking longer trips. of course this comes in con jenks with what we heard from bank of america earlier talking about how credit card and debit spending down for the first time since february 2021. there is an exclusive interview coming up with brian chesky. tune in for that >> shares of rivian rising it affirmed its target to produce 50,000 vehicles, about double the number they made last year the ceo joined us last hour on the show >> we just focused on-ramping production, driving costs down we're seeing results of a lot of

work that's gone into the last couple of months and really couple of quarters leading into the ramp we're now seeing. >> in addition to its r1 line, they have an order for 100,000 delivery vans. they told us they are looking at how to expand down the line. >> congressional leaders and president biden will keep talking and that's good news kayla, good morning again. >> reporter: good morning, becky. it the good news and new news. president biden and congressional leaders after meeting for over an hour yesterday, they tried to establish a negotiating process after months of entrenched positions. the president reinforced his position saying he's open to spending cuts so long as the

debt limit is raised >> i told congressional leaders that i'm prepared to begin a separate discussion about my budget and the spending priorities but not under the threat of default. >> biden called it a productive meeting and said conversations would continue among staff and principles this week and those principles would -- principals would be meeting at the white house on friday. he said there is no love lost between him and kevin maccarthy. >> everybody in this meeting reiterated the positions they were at. i didn't see any new movement. the president said the staff should get back to the i together. we have two weeks to go. >> right now there's not support in the senate to get behind the spending bill the house gop

passed two weeks ago or support for the clean debt limit raise that schumer has proposed. president biden and senate minority leader mitch mcconnell yesterday both committed the u.s. would not default on its debt under any scenario. there's still a big open question that can ensure that outcome. joe and becky? >> what are the alternatives is it the president sits down and actually negotiates something? is it that schumer gets together with mcconnell and they come up with a plan that could be passed by the senate? >> senator mcconnell has stood firmly behind speaker of the house kevin mccarthy and said it's up to him to reach a deal and senate republicans would fall in line to support that president biden suggested some areas where there could be fertile ground for agreement he suggested they would be open for potentially redirecting unspent covid aid but that's

just a few tens of billions when the order of deficit reduction they're talking about is in the trillions of dollars there's still a really long way to go. the positive sign is that the talks are happening but the president did not rule out invoking the 14th amendment. that would introduce a lot of uncertainty in the market but he said legal advisers think it's legitimate and did not rule out an extension if they're working on a deal. >> is there a chance that the infrastructure bill and other spending plans in place would be rolled back? >> the big one that the republicans are talking about is the inflation reduction act. they suggested some of the core tenets of that could be rolled back that was included in the house gop bill that passed but president biden suggested that's a nonstarter, the money is already being dispersed, the

can't put the genie back in the bottle they're going to have to get creative and figure out something else if it's not >> senator johnson was saying this is all a bluff and it's easy to just -- you can always pay your debt. there's always enough money for that you just don't do other things how long could that work i guess people don't get a paycheck can we go to june 14th or something? >> that's the calculation that i think people are trying to make right now because june 15th is when those corporate tax receipts start coming in but june 1st is the deadline treasury set you have about $12 billion in payments to veterans set to go on, you have about $50 billion to go out and though social security is untouched by the trust fund, we've heard the government say social security payments could

be in jeopardy, too. you have tens of billions of payments that the government needs to make in those first two weeks of june. there are questions about how treasury would or could prioritize those payments since this is uncharted territory. >> you do the 14th amendment does it start in lower courts, the challenges and then how long does that stay in court and in the -- could a court stay it immediately if it didn't want it to -- could they do that or do you have as much time as it takes to play out in the courts to use it? >> well, i'm not a lawyer and my husband who is prefers that i don't play one on tv but i think given the ramifications of the situation, you would think a court would hear this immediately or would opine on it immediately. when i talked to treasury officials about the possibility of the 14th amendment the real question is because it never been done before, what you really want to avoid is uncertainty in the treasury markets. it says the full faith and credit of the united states is constitutional, that the country

can continue issuing its debt and that nothing can challenge that, but the issue is that you have to have market participant on the other side that believe that if there's any sort of challenge and treasury goes to auction to try to sell more debt to pay these bills, a, are there being showing up for the auction and what is the interest rate they're going to demand for buying that paper and already the country is paying $900 billion in interest this year. they want to avoid that treasury auction would go successfully is not in question either >> the logic of the debt ceiling is hard to understand anyway i mean, the only reason that we have it would be to make us think about how much we're spending, i would think. but if you don't want to ever think about how much we're spending and just want to raise it no matter what every single time, then why have it in the first place?

it sort of a catch 22. >> i think in some progressive circles that's the question that's being asked right now, joe. >> that's me, kayla. i'm in those circles, i frequent those circles. >> i don't think anyone's ever accused you of that. i mean seriously on the left, they're asking why when democrats had the majority in congress and slim majority in the senate and in the house why did they not eradicate the debt ceiling if they could anticipate a situation like this happening. they did not decide to go in that direction even now there is some consternation among some of the moderate democrats about how much the government is spending. the fed debt is set to be about 217% of gdp. so it's a big number i think you'll find some moderates who want to do something about it, too. >> thank you, kayla.

>> thank, guys >> don't make a lot of outgoing calls. we need to talk to you about this coming up, april's look at the consumer price index are just a few minutes away from that breaking economic data and regulation in the evolving business of a.i. a conversation with lina khan.

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. welcome back to "squawk box. the futures right now have improved the dow is down 70, 80 points. the nasdaq is actually in the green now, up about few points, s&p just off a little bit so far today. >> shares of roblox are off. right now it looks like it's down by about 8.5%, steve. >> it was down as much as 11% a

few minutes ago when i first looked 44 cent a share, street was looking for 40 cent lost and revenue is also at a loss. i caught up with the cfo of roblox he was sounding way more optimistic than investors are saying we have a ton of cash, we kind of had this funky way of booking revenue -- sorry, counting revenue versus bookings because they use a virtual currency so things get a little wonky with the compares. but basically saying this revenue growth continues for them and after so much hyper growth during the pandemic and so much investment during the pandemic, they feel very confident moving forward that they, a, did not overhire, like we've seen so many tech companies do during the pandemic they feel like they hired appropriately for the growth they are experiencing and now

they're kind of dialing back that growth on that front, no mass layoffs or anything like that but they do feel like they're in a position now to handle and stay in the growth for the rest of the year so that's their view on it but, again, it's still a miss on the top and bottom lines, becky. >> is that the reason that you think they're down so sharply, just the miss itself was there something else that's a decent-size decline on the stock, down 8% >> and there's the average books on a cost-to-currency basis, a couple percent however, the fact that people are still going and flocking and using it every day, they have 66 million people using roblox every day. that's um 20p 20%.

they're saying they're such a sticky app and service, as long as we can keep people playing it's that average booking per user that is going down. >> they don't have an advertising component, do they is it just the spin from the users or is there an ad component? >> there is an ad component but it's very early. the cfo told me they're going to start reporting some of that ad revenue next quarter but it's not going to be broken out right now they have for lack of a better term these virtual billboards they could put inside roadblocks and they have portals, meaning if you're a brand like spotify or nike, can you create your own nike world and pay to have these, for lack of a better term, these little

doorways in between worlds that you can pay for and have customers enjoy your experience that way they see that as a more longer-term play and looking at digital billboards but we won't see it until next quarter. >> when we come back, we have breaking data. also that big interview with lina khan is coming up u' watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

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money manager believes the economy is on the brink of recession and is expecting a hard landing and said the down turn could occur during the second quarter he cites several factors, including weakness in sales and turmoil in the regional banks. >> i am not predicting something worse in than 2008. i don't want to see headlines that i saw something worse than 2008 is coming but i think it's naive to not be open minded to some sort of possibility to that effect >> druckenmiller said policy

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all right, welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are just a couple of minutes from april's cpi data. we want to bring in tyler goodspeed. he's now with the kato institute and hoover institution betsy stevenson is a labor department chief economist, now at the university of michigan where she is a professor and mike santoli and rick santelli rick, why don't you lay out what the mood is. >> of course the mood is a bit nervous. there are so many issues traders are juggling

they're going to pay close attention to the year over year and the progress made, meaning the current cycle low posts the highest year over year headline is the most recent in the rear view mirror, 5.0 the fly in the appointment is the core year over year. 5.6 last time was 0.1 higher than the previous. we want to watch 5.5 on the year over year. >> betsy, anything special we should be looking for within this >> so i think that the complication right now is year over year it's been coming down, but what we've seen is inflation kind of moving sideways over the last few months. the reality is that's what i'm expecting to happen this month we know used car prices are going to come in hot again we know shelter inflation is going to contribute to high inflation. the big news is going to be whether we see inflation hotter

in places where we're not expecting it >> tyler, are you holding out hope this is going to be a cooler number or do you think there's a real risk it could be hotter >> when i look at the nowcast, there's a bit of up side risk. i agree with betsy, when you look at the core numbers of inflation, when you look at wage inflation, they're all pretty consistent with an underlying inflationary dynamic, pretty much moving side ways over the past three and six months in the 4 1/2 to 5% range. i would like to see that slip to 4 to 5 1/2 but it's more likely we move to the 4 1/2 to 5% range. >> and mike, what are equities prepared for or not? >> we're embraced for a stutter step in the process. what's unclear is we don't know what the fed's burden of proof

is for pausing we'll have another cpi number and jobs number before the next fed meeting. i don't know that this will be seen as make or break but we're braced for something a little less friendly. a number is probably going to be bullish. >> s&p off by 4 point, the nasdaq up but just fractionally. it's time for the cpi number rick >> our april read on the consumer price index, expected to be up 0.4 is up 0.4 high water mark was up 1.2 that was back in june of '22 if we look at core, it is also expected to be up 0.4 and it is up 0.4 high water mark there, that was up 0.8 in april of '21 if we look at the year-over-year

numbers, 4.9 on year-over-year headline it has gone down every month since 9.1 extreme in june of '22, which was the extreme since 1981 core year over year, 5.5, exactly as expected and the high water mark there, 6.6 in september of last year the high of 1982 to go back that far and that is where the stickiness is. there isn't sticky in year over year headline. the stickiness is in the core. if you just look at the last three or four month, we have 5.5 this month, 5.6 last month, 5.5 before that, 5.6 in jan, 5.7 in dec and then the dropoff started. but the markets are weighing in very quickly here, panel rates are moving down.

two-year rates are moving down they were at 395, 405. we're down by five basis points in a 10-year and we've rallied nicely in the preopening dow futures now up a hundred points. so the market is speaking and it certainly doesn't seem to be bugged at all by the year-over-year core. panel. >> you got that right, rick. let's bring in some of the rest of our panel for some instant reaction to that number. tyler, what do you think that was not hotter than expected in some cases a little weaker. >> i think the year over year was weaker i suspect a lot of people like myself have been looking at the cleveland fed now, which we're expecting hotter-than-expected numbers. there's probably relief it came in within consensus. in terpsms of causes for worry, lot of this looks like it driven

by energy deflation. a tlot of the core services see up, new energy dragging things down but relief it didn't come in hotter than expected. >> belttsy, how about you this is something we'd been hoping for >> when the delivers at expectations, it's a pretty good day. used cars came in at 4.4% for the month. we knew it was going to be hot, hot, hot i think it was hotter than some people expected. we saw shelter inflation coming down a tiny bit. that's one where we're able to do a pretty good job of forecasting going forward and i think we're going to see that shelter in place and continue to come down over the next few months so i do think that this report says that we're on the path that we need to be on it's definitely slow it definitely has some bumps you

can hit along the way but i think that the fed should continue to feel pretty bullish that their plan is working the goal is never to bring inflation down rapidly overnight because of the damage that could do to the economy. their plan is to try to slow inflation. you know, we're not out of trouble yet. this is the idea that it's been moving a little bit side ways in recent months but there's a lot of signs on the horizon it going tho to come down further in the coming months. >> that's the reaction, whether you're looking at equities and yields the reaction is maybe the fed is going to be able to say this means we can pause for a little bit? >> yeah. inflation has already been sort of moving down the list of things we're most afraid of or that we spend most time worrying about as we deal with credit contraction from the bank stress and wonder about these leading indicators of recession. now big picture, the fed fund rate is above the rate of cpi, a

bit above 5% on fed funds. it seems to clear the way in that list of things that maybe are in the market's favor. all that stuff works together. and then because inflation is still at this level and this kind of helps explain why companies have done okay, part of the reason anyway, you have nominal gdp growth, call it 6%, even if we have slow gdp at this moment or at least last month. i think that helps you on the top line for the overall economy, which is what companies are feeding off of doesn't solve all the problems we know credit contraction is a disinflationary process. the market reaction to the numbers has been slightly more muted. it does not seem like that big spring loaded number we got used

to in 2022 >> we departmnt didn't get a che what's happening with t-bills. you watching that? >> absolutely i'm watching it. we're in the 530s on one-month bills. it's an interesting situation to finally have the fed fund future range above inflation and i would say fed fund future range is what t-bills are paying most attention to and i think the evidence of that could be that if this was more of a debt ceiling issue, and believe me, i'm sure debt ceiling figures in to t-bills to some extent but i don't think you'd have a two-year note yield dropping ten basis points on a weaker-than-expected cpi if there was all that much anxiety within the market place and i'll give you one step farther. how many guests, becky, for the last several weeks and last week especially were watching

treasury yield for flight for safety due to banking issues you can't have it both ways. you can't have flight to safety and treasuries and on the other hand try pointing to treasuries as validation that the debt ceiling is keeping rates too high >> i think the debt ceiling has to factor in at some level if you were looking at 5.8% plus that you could get last week for the one month, it does make it seem if it expiring on june 3rd or june 6th -- >> oh, there's definitely an effect but if somebody came from another planet and looked at these markets, looked at fed funds and the fact we just raised rates a third and other quarter points, i'm not sure they would come to there 's an exogenous force exerting pressure >> what's the next data point? >> you do have exogenous forces exerting pressure, they're just exerting in opposing directions

and that's why you're not seeing much we have flight to safety and flight away because of the debt ceiling and those two things are pushing against each other the big things on the horizon that we're going to be looking for is what exactly happens with the debt ceiling and we're going to be looking again at that jobs number the real number is what's really happening with inflation i'm starting to see that's moderating and i think that's real important in order for inflation to come fully down >> i want to thank you all right now we have another big interview and andrew has that. andrew, good morning >> good morning. the federal trade commission calling for a scrutiny of companies that are developing artificial intelligence technology, lina khan talking

about the expanding adoption of a.i. risks we discuss the world of competition, which has become probably the most important thing inside board rooms around the country and now the world these days chair khan, thank you for joining us >> great to be here. >> let's talk about a.i. specifically and how you're looking at big tech. of course microsoft is partnered up with chat gpt we're going to be hearing later today from google around their a.i. technology barred how do you think about bign tec nai at this point? >> the existing rules still apply. there is no exemption or legal shield that a.i. enjoys. that means our laws prohibiting unfair practices, deceptive practices, unfair method of

competition, discrimination, collusion, all of those laws are still going to be applied and companies need to be on notice accordingly. >> how do you think about competition in this context? one of the things clear about a.i. is it requires remarkable amounts of compute power consider infrastructure, if you will you talk about incumbents being the winners in this game, which i imagine is something you would like to avoid. how do you avoid that, if you think that is the right outcome, how do you avoid that in -- with a technology that requires vast amounts of money the reason that chat gpt and open a.i. did this deal with microsoft was because they needed access to lots and lots of capital >> there's no doubt that so far we've seen how these technologies really thrive on huge data sets and compute power and that certain larger firms may have an advantage. what we need to do as law

enforcers is the types of opportunity and openings for competition that these moments of technological disruption can present, that theyare not bein squashed out by incumbents historically we've seen they can allow new firms and start ones to enter and thrive and provide new innovations and make sure they're provided to all americans and that's what we need to be especially vigilant about, to make sure incumbents are not using their existing dominance in ways that are unlawful or anti-competitive to squash out innovation and competition. >> but you have no problem if a microsoft or a google or an apple or amazon, a big tech company ends up winning the a.i. game, if will you. >> i think history has to be a cauti cautionary tale for us we have to look at the last time around where unfortunately and lawsuits from both the ftc and

d.o.j. note this, firms were able to engage in anti-competitive practices in ways that shifted the trajectory we have to make sure it's not unlawful practices contributing to that. >> i mentioned microsoft let me ask you about microsoft and activision the u.k. authorities have effectively blocked that tr transaction using a slightly narrower or different argument that perhaps you were looking at this was specifically around the cloud gaming market as opposed to simply the console market can you see how your views of this transaction and their views differ >> this is a matter that's under active proceedings so there's a limited amount i can say about it but the ftc separately sued to block this deal back in early

december and the complaint lays out various concerns the commission has that includes concerns in the console and cloud market and subscription markets that are still expanding and developing it's really looking at several market, including those that are still fast growing and still developing i think we've seen time and time again how these nascent markets can be ones where there is a special mandate protecting competition and invasion and not allowing incumbents to thwart competition. >> chairman of the sec and gary cohn were on this show last week they write the following: some regulators in their zeal to achieve a social policy agenda set by a few extreme progressives in the democratic party seem to be embracing a new strategy that evades

constitutional impediments, outsourcing u.s. regulatory policy to europe what do you think of that? >> those allegations are just flatly untrue. there has long been a history of u.s. enforcers cooperating with, sharing information with international enforcers that's occurred over multiple decades under both democratic and republican administrations interestingly the business community has supported and actively encouraged that type of cooperation and coordination and so, you know, the ftc here reached an independent judgment back in december looking at the facts before it, looking at the laws of the u.s. as applied to these facts and this transaction and each jurisdiction applies its own authorities and its own laws we of course engage in best practices in terms of coordination and information sharing but there's no question that every enforcer is using its

own independent judgment >> how do you think about u.s. dominance or whether we should want u.s. dominance by certain u.s. companies relevant to the dominance of industries by foreign competitors? i ask because you know earlier this month the ftc proposed a change to the agency's 2020 consent decree for meta and meta came back and said why are you doing this to us you're going to injure us even more and look over there in china at tiktok and what it's doing. i'm curious if you could even talk about to the extent you think about the sort of competition internationally, how that plays into your thinking. >> look, i think what history and experience have shown us is that what best positions the united states to compete internationally, to stay ahead internationally is making sure that we are home for innovation and what best produces breakthrough innovation, cutting

edge technologies is competition. we've seen time and time again monopolies and incumbent firms they need to prefer mondopolies but the u.s. has enforced anti-trust it led to decades and decades of innovation we saw that silicon valley was birth n berthed in the wake of anti-trust enforcement >> i think joe has a question for you. >> former sec chair joe clayton also intimated that it appears

size and power are sort of on the target of the ftc at this point, whether there's unlawful or illegal behavior at the core of what's happening. and your ground breaking thesis, whatever you want to call it on sort of a 2.0 and for anti-trust with amazon and platforms and the like and the power that that gives a company kind of displaces consumer benefits. i'm wondering is it a whole new approach to doing this just because a company is big and powerful and appears to be a monopoly, even though it's not doing anything wrong, if you decide that that is grounds for action, eventually consumers could be hurt. consumers have done very well with these big companies i think in the united states you'd have to say that iphones, apps, anything else.

are you sure that's the right move >> we enforce the laws on the books. congress passed anti-trust laws because congress was suspicious of monopolies and abusive and unlawful practices that monopolies engage in we've seen time and time againd innovations is enforcing the anti-trust laws. there's no question when you have dominant incumbents, they can squash opportunities for newcomers. weep should celebrate the success of successful firms, butch bu we also need to make sure they're not crowding out the opportunity for the next generation of startups and entrepreneurs that could bring those even greater innovations to market. that's what we look at is the existing laws, how they apply to the facts before us and we've seen lawsuits both from the federal trade commission, from the justice department under this administration, under the prior administration with serious allegations about

anti-competitive and unlawful practices by some of these same firms so we need to take that seriously. >> chair khan, i wanted to get an update. last time you spent time with us and graciously came on i think it was the day that you announced or the day after you announced the plans to look at non-compete agreements on a federal basis. i'm curious where that now stands i know that the chamber of commerce and others have said that they will go to court over this but you've been in a listening mode lots of comments have come in. what have you learned? >> so we have received over 26,000 comments. our comment period closed a couple of weeks ago. we also did some listening sessions, hearing directly from folks. we're still making our way through those 26,000 comments, but there's no doubt that we've heard directly from people about their experience with these noncompetes and house of representatives thes-- how these

non noncompetes have blocked them and we've heard from folks if in the business community how the noncompetes have locked up talent pools and prohibit them from scaling up. there's an effect not only on workers but competition and entrepreneurship we're looking that we've heard voices from all sides. we heard in particular from health care workers about how these noncompetes that are governing doctors, that are governing health care workers may also actually be impeding the quality and access of health care so, that's something that we're looking at closely as well >> i'm curious, though, and look, we've talked about it in the context of health care workers who very much seem to be in that category where this noncompete agreement maybe doesn't make sense or a hairdresser or something of the like, but have you heard on the other end about some of these senior executives and the kind of payments that they're made, and do you make a distinction

between the two? should there be a distinction between the two? >> that's something we're looking at closely and some of the questions that we asked in our initial proposal was, should there be a line that's drawn here, and if so, where should that line be drawn i will say, we also actually got comments from some of those same senior level executives that also talked about how noncompetes that had prevented them from actually starting their own business and creating new competition in the market. so, we're looking at all of this closely, and we'll decide where to land when we come out >> it's a timely issue, because as you know, tucker carlson has just decided that he is -- he has been fired from fox but wants to start a new company, a start-up, if you will, on twitter, but of course, has a noncompete, is paid by fox elon musk and twitter, i think, would like him to come, to some degree unclear. what do you think about an example like that? >> well, look, i think in instances where we've seen how

noncompetes are preventing people from starting their own venture, that can create a lot of concern i think we also need to look at whether somebody's being compensated for a noncompete or not. i will say, as a general matter, we're very interested in, what is this noncompete looking to achieve? is it really designed to lock out competition, to prevent somebody from getting a better job, a better opportunity? or is it designed, instead, to protect trade secrets, and if so, why don't we look at trade secrets laws, at nondisclosure agreements, at other tools that are available that could protect those legitimate interests without blocking competition, without keeping people locked into jobs that they no longer want to be in. >> right and i know we're running out of time i have a final question for you. as you know, there are a lot of vacancies at the ftc, specifically there are now three democrats and no republicans at the ftc in terms of the members that are there

christy wilson stepped down this year, and as you know, she said she was doing so because she felt that you had a disregard for the rule of law. what does that do or not to the credibility of the agency? >> look, we're doing the important job that congress has given us i think the commission is at its best when it's at full strength, and so we really look forward to new commissioners that the president is -- will appoint and the senate will confirm. there's no doubt that there is significant bipartisan concern, including in congress, about the fact that markets across the board have become less competitive, that we see greater monopolization and that's having a negative effect on consumers, workers, business formation, innovation i just testified on the hill over the last few weeks, and i heard from members of both parties, significant concerns about how monopolies are hollowing out parts of rural america. they're making it difficult for people to be able to afford essential medicine they're locking workers into jobs, and so i take those

concerns from both parties very seriously, and it just underscores what an important job congress has given the ftc, and we're going to continue to do that job and ideally have new commissioners to welcome at some point. >> chair khan, thank you for joining us in this wide-ranging conversation this morning. we look forward to talking to you again very soon. we got a lorot me coming up on "squawk box" on the other side of this break back after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box. a cpi report showingconsumer level inflation rose 4.9% year over year. that was slightly below estimates. everything else was kind of in line joining us to talk more about the market impact, senior investment strategist at edward jones. dollar went down yields went down stocks went up bitcoin, back above $28,000. immediate effects, mona, just from basically as expected numbers. i guess it wasn't worse than expected >> yeah, i think that's right, joe. look, people were expecting maybe there would be an upside surprise to this month's cpi in fact, we got a bit of relief that it came in, in line, slightly below expectations on a headline number. this is the tenth straight month that cpi on a headline basis has come down since it peaked back in june of 2022. when we look underneath the surface, the fed has broken out inflation into three core buckets, which is goods inflation, housing, and shelter inflation and the third one is

what they call nonhousing services inflation i think we're seeing pretty good trends on the first two, goods inflation has rolled over. housing and shelter, we're seeing realtime indications that it's moving lower. it's really that last component, nonhousing services, driven by wage growth and a very tight labor market still that we're waiting to see signs of meaningful easing, but keep in mind, the labor market does tend to be a lagging indicator when the last shoe's to drop. in fact, historically, unemployment rate tends to rise when the fed starts cutting rates, so we could still see moderation in that nonhousing services ahead of us >> you mentioned the lag is the lag so much that there could be a hard landing? i mean, i hate to say it it almost looks like things are working. jay powell looks like he might -- i don't know if i can say it looks like they know what they're doing. is that possible >> so far, they have not orchestrated what we would call

a meaningful hard landing, and when we think about the unemployment rate, we don't see it moving much above or even getting past that 5% level the fed's own projections show a peak unemployment rate this cycle of 4.6%. so, historically, 4.5% to 5% unemployment rate, still very benign when you think about the broader picture in terms of the economy and growth overall so, we would say, yes, the unemployment rate and some labor stress is probably ahead of us, but when you think about how that might play out, we are seeing what's happening is job openings are moving lower, jobless claims are moving higher, but you could see some of the people that are laid off or unemployed move into some of these job openings it won't be a perfect one-to-one match, but some of that joblessness will be absorbed by the job openings the other part will filter through to a higher unemployment rate what we would say is the fed has indeed started to orchestrate what we'd call a soft landing, heading towards what we call mild economic downturn and one

last point there the bloomberg consensus estimates point to two back-to-back negative gdp quarters for q3 and q4 >> the sun came up after the cpi, actually, it was already up, but markets are taking it pretty well. mona, thanks appreciate it. andrew, there you are. interesting. >> nice job, andrew. >> yeah. that was good. worth it we will see everyone some day. make sure you join us tomorrow that's "squawk on the street" next ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. the market does appreciate cpi today. the june rate hike, odds fall to about 10% amid the flurry of corporate results today and tonight. our road map begins with the macro picture. cpi better than feared and no

d.c. deal yet as a deb