tv Closing Bell CNBC May 10, 2023 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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bell today >> can you believe this? 20 seconds left. stocks still positive for the year >> we have 13 seconds left >> thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with today's selloff and what all that says about where your money is heading it's not the market reaction many were looking for. there it is. 60 minutes to go in regulation cyclical stockings, they're selling off. that's a drag on the dow it's been down most of the afternoon. s&p, nasdaq, russell 2000 in the green. interest rates are dropping on
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more recession fears the talk of the take, what's the catalyst for stocks to move higher is it rate hikes all this as fed member after fed member says it's not going to happen where does this leave us let's ask tom lee. it is good to see you as always. >> what do you make of this market reaction to the cpi print? >> scott, you know, i think today's cpi print wasn't a tie breaker. there was something that people who are constructive of inflation saw plenty that they like it's been like this all year it's a game of inches being fought progressively, i think the bull case is prevailing if i could point out, one of the biggest implications for this cpi report is the percentage of components that are edging to
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out right deflation. if you look at the price level, these are off the peak it's hitting 40% that's well above the ten-year average at 38% we're sort of saying forward inflation should come down sharply. >> is that your bull case? what is the bull case? inflation comes down more sharply than people think. the fed is absolutely done we have a soft landing that's a lot to ask for. >> it is a lot, scott. i mean, i would say it's -- some people say it's a narrow path. what we think is the bull case is that inflation is falling faster than most people realize because we're dropping the high prints from last year. that's going to allow the fed's pause to become more comfortable for investors because it leads to a soft landing. i think that's more than a 50% probability. when you consider where
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positioning is, if you look at thinner margin depth, there's been morle liquidation depth thn 2008 we've got people sitting on cash and if we have a soft landing, corporate profits have been holding up nicely. it is a scenario where the bonds are at 3.3% for the ten-year that allows p.e. to expand. >> speaking of sitting on, the fed is likely going to be sitting on higher rates for sometime even some of the more, let's say, dovish members like austin goolsbey says he's getting cries of a credit crunch that doesn't sound that bullish
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to me. >> no, it doesn't, scott higher for longer would be tough because there's a lot of tension between those who think something will break and those who don't. what i would point out is that another scenario could emerge and i think it comes from both the public's outcry about high rates and political pressures, is that the fed could end up tolerating inflation settling around 3%. i know powell has dispelled that notion, but it explains why the forward curve is where it is versus where the fed tells us interest rates should be the fed could end up tolerating something around low 3% inflation. that would be quite good for stocks and procfits i think that's why things could get better. >> you think they end up cutting this year? is that part of your bug ll cas?
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>> we don't. one reason why the fed futures are forecasting cuts is people are citing the probability of an emergency from the regional bank crisis that would not be good for stocks, but i think the bond market is trying to price that in i don't think anyone in the bond market thinks there's interest rates coming, but they don't think we'll be at 5% for the next ten years the ten-year kind of stays anchored i don't know where the two-year ends up. >> would i be overstating things to suggest that your entire bull case is built on the idea of a soft landing >> yeah, scott, it is. it is based on that. i know someone will say, look, we're grasping at straws, but, as we talked to our clients this year, six things have happened this year that only happen at the start of a bull market
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they've never seen an occurrence in a bear market it seems like the evidence is still showing october was probably the low we're in a rising trend for the last seven months. if i had to explain why this is happening, to me it would be the best explanation is a soft landing is ahead. >> let's bring in dan greenhouse i want to have a debate from two market participants, those who follow and watch and actually act in the markets every day you heard what tom said. >> sure. >> what do you think >> i mean, there's a lot -- tom is articulating a view -- he's not alone in articulating this view. >> is it credible? >> sure, it's credible the federal reserve itself more or less is banking on something resembling a soft landing. you have other private sectors like goldman sachs who have been
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saying we'll have a soft landing in the economy where i take issue with tom's argument -- i'll agree that he's referring to the stock market, there are six things occurring that only occur in bull markets. where i take issue is the idea that in order for this to happen you would be thwarting 40 years of data and activity on the part of the fed reserve when you raise rates -- my argument has been when you raise rates, bad things tend to happen that's not because of any ill intentions it's because the odds that 10 or 15 people sitting in a room can manipulate an interest rate to fine tune it perfectly is foolishness. i don't think this will be any different. i don't disagree the october low was maybe the, quote, low. i think the idea that we don't revisit that, i would challenge
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that. >> tom, what about the idea that maybe what we witnessed with the banks isn't it i want you to listen to what stanley had to say when the fed does what they do and do it in the speed with which they're doing it, things break. maybe the banks weren't the first thing to break listen to stanley here >> when you have free money, people do stupid things. when you have free money for 11 years, people do really stupid things there's stuff under the hood that's starting to emerge. obviously the regional banks, bed, bath & beyond, but i would assume there's more bodies coming. >> what about that, tom, we're normalizing from what drunkenmiller would calla way stupid what do you think? >> he's been proven correct.
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when we look at the aftermath of silicon valley bank, we saw more evidence of mismanaging and simple risks emerging. i think -- i don't want to be glib, but in the gfc, households were the one that were caught on their skis because they were using floating rate instruments, a lot of leverage. in this cycle home owners have been more prudent using fix rated mortgages with more equity the place where something bad could happen is where there's excess leverage and not a lot of equity cushion in a lot of lending today, the corporate debt hasn't been the case i think things are still breaking and haven't finished breaking like in the '90s where you had a consistent banking crisis, it didn't take down the whole economy. we had a 27% decline in 2022
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that's the same decline that was induced with the nine-step inflation war when rates went to double digits and the s&p at that time was 27%. we achieved that in nine months last year. i think we already had that wealth shock now i think stocks are climbing towards 'qequal. >> that's fair i think -- i mean, you had a meaningful reaction in risk assets i disagree somewhat in the larger sense that, like, the banks are the first things to blow up. the unprofitable tech stocks blew up at the beginning of 2021 more profitable tech blew up at the end of 2022. to tom's point about leverage, which is entirely valid, bears no similarity to 2008.
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to the point with respect to valuations and the equity market, you see this in the credit market and equity market. you're dealing with a situation where credit spreads are incredibly tight and equity valuations are still pretty elevated a lot of that is because of the largest names, invidia, tesla and so on. with valuations at 18 plus and high yields south of 500, ig spreads -- nothing is near a problem. my point is everyone's -- the only interpretation is that the fed is going to stick the landing. i hate to keep coming back to the fed -- >> look, all roads lead to the fed. >> but corporate profits are the mother's milk of stock prices. the negative repercussions are not a blow up. it's going to be the economic environment is going to worsen at some point and stocks and
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spreads are going to reflect that sometime in the back half of the year. >> tom >> yeah, i think dan's making the point why this is a game of inches i would just point out a few other things when you look at p.e., it's closer to 15 times the two most expensive groups after fang are staples and you at this points they're the defensive groups 40% of the european stock markets are at all-time highs. several are at new all-time highs. japan is at an all-time high when we think about global inflation and all the credit risks people are jawboning about, a lot of developed equity markets are at an all-time high, except for the s&p. >> what about mega cap tech, tom? you've been dead right about it. you said it was the time when it was out of favor to start the year, but you thought mega cap
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would have a good year it's had a year's worth of gains in a few months. what now >> we thought fang couldn't rise as much as 50% partly because it was one of the first groups to really get hit as this year has unfolded, it looks like fang -- i'm being broad and including invidia and semis -- are so relevant with how you deal with inflation. stan has made the point that you can't say you'll have diminished demand for these products. it's going to grow and there's not new competition. that's why i think their p.e. could expand and that pulls up the whole market. >> you want to make a case for cyclical stocks over mega cap stocks >> i can make that case. >> you can
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how do you make that case? you want me to buy cyclical stocks >> with the yield curve still inverted, 50 basis points, it's not as inverted as it was, but still levels that are suggestive of a recession going forward i want to make the point about fang with respect to the market as a whole, we talk about how the market is holding up if you break the s&p or the nasdaq do deciles, they're tripling the performance and most are down for the year we made this argument that you have narrow leadership with respect to fang, it's doing the job in terms of holding up valuations and holding up the market in general. that's not to say we would be off -- >> we've seen this movie before.
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>> with respect to cyclicals, listen, it's -- if you're going to have a downturn in the back half or beginning of 2024, presumably everyone is going to do poorly. it doesn't have to be a 2008 scenario if we're going to crimp corporate profits further, it's going to be hard for any sector to rally let's talk about energy for ins instance you have secular tailwinds some of the large cap names are down 4, 5% they should be down much more with oil off by 15%. there are reasons at work in some sectors that are larger than the federal reserve >> thank you for being here. tom, thank you as always great day to have you on don't miss tom lee at our adviser summit next month, june 15th we'll discuss market risks
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ahead, potential buying opportunities. scan the qr code we have a great group. we're excited about that. let's get to our twitter question of the day. will the fed cut rates this year head to twitter to vote. we have the results later. let's get a check on top stocks to watch. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. kristina >> reporter: analysts are loving exact sciences this is a company that provides cancer screening and shares are almost 11% higher. just yesterday exact sciences posted strong earnings, raised its full year revenue forecast that was driven by the company's test for colorectal cancer even though losses keep growing, shares of roblox are
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jumping. v bookings grew. management said they can moderate the rate of investment in infrastructureimproving operating leverage no word on any cuts. scott? >> kristina, thank you. we're just getting started on "closing bell." disney reporting results in less than an hour plus, we're going to hear from a shareholder about what she'll be watching. former fed governor, he'll join us to talk about what he thinks the fed's next movement will be. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities™. disney results stock a bit muted into that. julia boorstin here with your set up julia, what are you watching today? >> reporter: we're watching bob iger's cost cutting efforts and his plan to cut of $5.5 billion in costs we're looking to understand iger's approach to some big hurdles ahead. in disney's fiscal second quarter they're predicted to show 7.5% higher revenue streaming is of course in focus. investors looking for 163 million disney+ subscribers, but they're hoping to hear that streaming losses are declining to about $840 million in the
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quarter. investors are hoping to learn more about one, the impact of the writers strike, iger's outlook on the advertising market and hree, how the escalating legal battles with the state of florida could impact the company scott? >> lots to cover that's julia boorstin. let's bring in victoria fernandez of cross mark global investments. what are you looking for >> some of the things that julia mentioned. when it comes to advertising, we want to see what that looks like we did not get good news out of warner brothers and paramount. we'll see if that continues with disney looking at the subscribers, last quarter they had a loss on the international side, even though domestic grew. we want to see that. the writers strike is important. disney has a good catalog.
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even if there's a writers strike that goes on for a while, they can have their viewers there i'll watch "mulan" again if there's nothing else to watch. then the cost cutting as well, this is key for a few different areas. one, the dividends if they're still in that cost-cutting mode, let's see how much progress they made with the job cuts and restructuring are they going to bring that dividend back? it was thought 2023 might be the year we see that i want to hear what they have to say about that what does that mean in regards to hulu as well? options trading is telling me there could be extreme volatility here, like a 7% move. we'll be watching all that. >> that's a pretty good wish list are your expectations high or low you're going to get the answers you want
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>> i'm not sure we're going to get all the answers we want. it will be pretty vague around the cost cutting last quarter they laid out that plan i'm not sure there's been a tremendous amount of progress in regards to that. i'm not sure we'll get positive news on the dividend we were hoping that would be a boost to the stock i'm not sure we'll get the positive answers advertising is going to be tough. how many of their subscribers switched over to the ad-supported subscription and what does that mean for revenues it's going to be a difficult quarter i think. iger will probably get a pass because he's still fairly new back on the job. i think he'll get a pass again, we'll see some volatility we think trading options is the best way to handle disney. >> what kind of tolerance do you have for these losses related to streaming decelerating >> yeah, i mean, no one wants to
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see the losses come in obviously you want to see that improve quarter over quarter it's a tremendous amount of competition out there. hulu is a key component. you have 48 million subscribers there. are they going to make a play to bring that in? does that help with the decelerating we're seeing? people are going to be patient because it's disney and they have faith in iger how long that patience goes on, we'll wait and see we hold it in our option strategy where it's something we hold for a longer period of time we're willing to give it a little more time than maybe a regular trader would. >> what about succession, no one mentioned that he has this self-imposed two-year timeline. when do you want to know who's going to be next >> we've heard those self-imposed timelines before
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and they come and go i'm not sure he's going to achieve what he wants to achieve in two years or in two years be able to hand that over to someone else i think it's going to be longer. i'm okay with that i like iger's management style i have confidence in him as the leader it's one of the things that we actually have liked about the stock, is the governance component. i'm not opposed to him going more than two years. we would like at least 12 months notice if he's leaving it's coming up too quickly for them to make that decision. >> victoria, appreciate it. up ahead, frederic mishkin is up next we'll see if he thinks the fed is done. "closing bell" will be right back
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we're back stocks largely hugging the flat line the s&p 500 moving higher by a half percent the dow is still negative, but way off lows that's following the april cpi report my next guest said the fed is far from declaring victory frederic mishkin is the former governor of the fed. nice to see you. the market thinks the fed is done "the wall street journal" said the summer break appears likely. you think we're wrong? >> i don't think the inflation report does reinforce the fed should stop raising rates.
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the headline was a little lower than expected. the core rate came in where it was expected and is still at a high level it hasn't fallen very much given that, plus a very strong labor report that we just had, you know, the fed basically has not -- cannot declare a victory. inflation is still a real problem. there's no clear-cut evidence that inflation is coming down towards the 2% target. the fed, i think, potentially has to raise rates more importantly, the fed -- there's no way the fed should think about pivoting for a very long time. key is that the rates be kept high for a long time unless -- here's the wild card the banking sector if there's problems in the banking sector, that's a whole new ball game. however, the fed has much more
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information on that than we do they're supervising those banks. they can see whether there's a problem. so far the rhetoric from the fed is things look like they're contained on the banking side. if that's the case, they could have to keep raising rates for a long period of time -- i've been saying this for a while -- the fed had to raise rates and keep them high and not lower them too early that would be a problematic move. >> we know from the senior loan officer survey that credit is tightening loan demand is declining austan goolsbee said he's getting, quote, vibes of a credit crunch. you're not moved by that >> there's some evidence it's slowing. the fact is how much if the banking problems had not occurred, the fed would have to raise rates at least another 50 basis points
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my view is the fact there's been some tightening in credit markets is why the fed isn't clear whether they have to raise. there's no indication that inflation is contained core inflation, inflation that takes out these volatile items, that's still pretty damn high. that's the problem for the fed you know, they're not happy about this they would love to see inflation come down faster nobody likes higher interest rates. the fed doesn't like them. they don't want to do them if they don't have highinteres rates, then you'll have higher rates in the future they have to stick to their guns and do the right thing it's not always easy to do that. you have to be a tough s.o.b. sometimes. >> stocks are now positive the dow which was negative for most of the day has gone into the green. we have less than 30 minutes to go before we close it up we're green across the board
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maybe part of it is on this idea that this break from hikes looks likely i want to be clear with what you're saying. are you saying you would vote for a hike in june >> i'm not sure. i want more information on what's going on on the banking side i've been very hawkish thinking we had to raise rates. when the silicon valley bank went under, i thought it was reasonable for the fed to pause. they raised rates, which was fine, because they have better information than i do. that's the key issue here, but in a sense, having a little slowdown in credit from the banks is helping them not to have to raise rates more it's not that the problems of inflation have been solved it's not that inflation is under control. the fed's done a very good job reversing course when they made serious mistakes before. as i say, i would have been much
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more hawkish if the banking problems hadn't existed. it's not that the credit -- some of the credit supply may have weakened that's a factor in my thinking that the fed did not have to keep raising rates on the other hand, there's no indication at this point that the problem is solved and the fed has to be super vigilant most importantly, even if they don't raise rates, don't fall to the pressure of lowering rates which we've seen in the past volker did it once that was a mistake that's the real danger hopefully there's no big problems in the banking sector that's a whole new ball game the fed has a lot of information we don't have. they have guys inside the banks checking out what's going on they can see whether there's a serious problem or not. >> that worked real well with silicon valley bank. >> that's a separate -- it was a major regulatory failure now they have more information.
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>> okay. the chairman himself said we are close or already there in terms of being in restrictive territory enough you disagree with that characterization >> no, i think that's a real possibility. as i say, there might be -- need to be another small increase at this stage basically the reason everybody is saying that is because there's been some weakening in the credit markets because of the banking situation. in fact, one of the things that's very key when you have inflation spinning out control, it's important not to wimp out and start cutting rates too early. the only reason you start doing something like that is something bad is happening in the economy. i haven't heard anything that indicates that's the case. again, if there's something else going on there, we'll hear about it and get some sense of it. then we're in a different ball game
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that's not what i'm seeing now, at least from the information i have if i was in the room, i might have other information that would make me say something different. >> you're much more of a monetary policy expert than me obviously. when you do 500 basis points of hikes in 13 months, don't you need to give it some period of time now to see what the dramatic effects of that are going to be? if you continue to raise and raise and raise, you're not going to be able to give yourself the opportunity to see what you've done why isn't pausing now, when we've already broken something and taken a look around, taking a couple deep breaths and seeing what the effects of that are, what's wrong with that >> two things are important. one, the fed was very expansionary
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when they started raising rates, the 75-basis point increases, they were still in expansionary territory. it took a while to get that back up to neutral which is more in the 4% range or so, or maybe higher it hasn't been that restrictive given where they started from. that's point one point two is, it's true i'm not says necessarily the fed has to keep raising rates they may be where they need to be, especially because of the softening in bank lending. on the other hand what's really clear is that the fed has to keep rates at high levels unless there's some serious weakening in the economy and we don't see that yet the economy is much stronger than people expected unemployment is historically very low levels. i'm somebody who thinks that the fed's most important job is to
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control inflation, although it also needs to be aware of what's happening on the employment front. there have been times i've been very dovish. i've been very hawkish the past two years or so, maybe year and a half there are times you need to be dovish that's not the information i'm seeing now if i was in the room and i had been there with different information about what's going on in the banking sector, i might take a different view. >> thank you very much that's frederic mishkin. coming up, one financial stock is bucking the bank trend. we tell you what it is and why we'll give you a rundown of the other key movers kristina partsinevelos is standing by. >> reporter: we have a short squeeze on our hands can you guess who it is? i'll have the answer and much more after this short break.
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given the drop in demand for new loans. 35% of the float is shorted. many short sellers today were left buying the stock to limit losses that's causing shares to surge 35% higher ringcentral is surging right now, almost 15% higher it was helped by small and medium size business growth. the street liked the company's performance. the stock is trading at 30.46. scott? >> kristina, thank you leslie picker looking at another big mover today. a regional bank? >> reporter: believe it or not, first citizens shares up about 7% today the best performing name and
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biggest wading in the banking etf. first citizens made nearly $10 billion by acquiring most of silicon valley bank from the fdic it boosted first quarter earnings by 4,000% the provision for credit losses jumped to $783 million still on this morning's conference call, it was described as a home run for earnings and tangible book value. its quarterly profit about $9.5 billion ranked it second in earnings >> leslie, thank you. last chance to weigh in on the twitter question we asked will the fed cut rates this year or not simple yes or no. head to cnbc "closing bell" on e sus ghaf threltrit ter this break.
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we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. senior market commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments. deidre bosa has the biggest headlines from google's event. mike santoli, i begin with you the president is in the new york area he was upstate talking about the debt ceiling there's some suggestion he's showing a willingness to discuss possible budget restraints he said, america has the strongest economy in the world, but we should be cutting spending market may have moved a bit on those kmcomments we go to close, the dow fighting, but the s&p is nicely positive. >> around that and today's inflation numbers were consistent i see it just as a reason to
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turn the dial this much in the direction of maybe there's a way where this turns out in a benign fashion for a while. i think we got stuck in this mode of feeling as if it has to be a hard landing or soft landing. we have to know exactly. in reality there can be these equal moments where the fed isn't fighting you and the economy hasn't fallen apart and the market does what it does and you get excitement about ai over here and the banks don't go to zero tomorrow and you have a lot of give and take that's keeping us in this range you know, i think also it's preventing the market from really getting alarmed by all this i agree on the biden stuff and even after the meeting yesterday with the congressional lead, we're going to keep in touch we're going to meet. we're not going to go out there in the most adversarial way. >> it's going to be hard to get out of this range as long as the
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debt ceiling thing is the overhang, right? no one is going to push the chips into the middle of the table before we know whether the rug is going to get pulled out from under us. >> presumably. i think the market is good at not panicking about something until it's forced to if there's progress along the way, it's probably not going to be the sort of thing where we're going to proactively decide t liquidate. it's not like people are overloaded with equity risk. they've been playing defense we've seen a lot of wear and tear on the cyclical parts of the market it's not like you have to resell them i keep talking about best buy and ford and capital one and whirlpool that are in seven and eight times warnings deidre bosa, mountain view, california, the ceo looking at a
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stock up near 4% did he deliver today is that what the market is suggesting as he says not so fast mr. microsoft >> reporter: it does seem like they delivered i spoke to you when the event was getting under way. it was about halfway through when they talked about search and how it would integrate with ai and then it was off to the races. there was something for developers, consumers, investors. >> we had an exciting flection point. we have an opportunity to make ai even more helpful for people, for businesses, for communities, for everybody. we have been applying ai to make our products radically more helpful for a while. with ai, we're taking the next step with the bold and responsible approach we're re-imagining all our core
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products, including search. >> reporter: key, including search google's evolution of search really stole the show. seemed to show investors when ai meets search, it doesn't kill search for now perhaps going may have the edge at least for now over microsoft and chatgpt. we'll see if it lasts. >> dee, thank you for covering that for us. big story. by the way, the ceo of google cloud is coming up in "overtime. we had sam drunken mmiller talkg about the power of ai. invidia, microsoft somehow alphabet has let the narrative get away from it >> right it's almost cast itself as a victim of the ai movement as opposed to a beneficiary this probably changes that a little bit in the process, you wouldn't
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call alphabet a super cheap stock, but on a free cash flow basis, it's 5.5% free catch flow yield, microsoft around 3, meta much lower you have a cushion because people were worried and remain worried about the google search experience in general. this casts a light about how it's gotten spotty and spammy. maybe that's let's profitable in the near term. again, you neee something besides maybe the economy doesn't slouch immediately towards recession to get the market in a better mood. i think the ai stuff is probably overhyped in some pockets. it's probably a hand we overplayed with certain stocks it is something that causes companies to say they have something worth investing in it's a growth story as opposed to purely playing defense. >> you want to look at disney as well as we inch towards nthose
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numbers. what do we think here? there's not a lot of enthusiasm around this stock. sure there is in the company because of what iger is doing in terms of cost cutting. let's see it play out. >> the cost cutting is known in terms of the dollar figure they're going for. progress towards that is probably a significant element of the report we'll get today. theme parks should be hopping. that should be a real strong suit it's a real source of cash flow. it's a matter of the agree to which the street is feeling that the streaming side is profitably investing and hemorrhaging cash flow as opposed to an indiscriminate way c citi has the company at about $90 a share. it's not that demanding if you see a path towards streaming
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becoming less of a drag. >> watch for a number of things. commentary around the parks and consumer strength. >> a good box office story too >> doesn't look like we'll get positive on the dow. they might fight it to the finish i'll send it to john fortt and "overtime. there is your score card on wall street. welcome to "closing bell." morgan is off today. we're kicking off earnings disney due out with results in moments. we'll get numbers from robin hood, cheese cake factory and unity software we'll speak with thomas kurian about today's announcements. alphabet jumping about 4% on
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