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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  May 12, 2023 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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- this could be a stretch, but i think it's 'cause they wanna get paid correctly. i like getting paid correctly. good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. some of the surprise winners through april and the lack of participation from the small caps. jim fetterling with us on new nuclear capabilities in texas and the state of the economy. a debt ceiling debate between the president and the
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speaker now delayed. my yeah macguinness joins us. we have definitely chopped our way through a lot of inflation data, some bank stress, some earnings and the next week we turn our attention to the consumer and retail >> we're seeing the regional bank stock acting weak and we have cross-currents, higher inflation expectations on the five-year going to the highest since 2011 sparked some debate right on whether the fed is going to pause in june. all the data this week has shown us -- led us to that point with weaker inflation data. we'll get another inflation report and another jobs report before the june meeting. then there's this other question of how much the economy is slowing and whether jobs, to your point earlier, are going to finally crack with the spike in initial jobless claims >> the piece in the journal
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yesterday where gallup polls show inflation is no longer number one for consumers he argued that may not be a good thing, if consumers are just getting used to the idea of high inflation. >> there's that or the fact it's turned to a growth concern and they're worried about that. >> we have breaking news out of the white house on the fed kayla has it. >> president biden is nominating dr. jefferson for vice chair of the federal reserve and nominating dr. kugler to the board of governors and renominating dr. lisa cook to serve another term on the board. president biden made the decision in recent weeks but the white house is making it official today jefferson, who was confirmed 91-7 to his current role on the board would become chair powell's number two if confirmed to that role jefferson has signaled support for powell's strategy of successive rate hikes followed by that potential pause. kugler is a long-time labor economist. she would fill the vacancy left
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by lail brainard who joined the biden administration and she will be the fed's first latina policy mmaker if confirmd >> we're getting news. we're getting some news from the congressional budget office, analysis on the debt ceiling, just how much havoc this could reek ifwe go into technical default. >> the cbo is an important nonpartisan, essentially referee, number counter in the fight here for the debt ceiling. the cbo in new numbers out today suggests that the treasury is going to face a cash crunch in the first two weeks of june before tax receipts come in on june 15th. and the cbo says essentially that if treasury has government obligations of $300 billion or less, perhaps it can make it through the middle of the month when more of that revenue comes in and if it starts to get more of
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that revenue in, then perhaps the u.s. could make it to the end of july before it breaches the debt limit of course, no one wants to take this to the brink inside the federal government treasury, especially, which is always hyperconservative on these issues given the uncertainty in those two weeks, now highlighted by the cbo as well, it makes that june 1st deadline all the more important. carl andsara >> how should we take the delay today? is it a good thing it shows us talks are ongoing and we like talks? maybe that means we can reach some sort of deal? >> it depends on who you ask folks at the white house suggest it is a good thing the talks have been productive the talks are continuing at the staff level but house speaker kevin mccarthy yesterday suggested the administration wasn't serious, that it didn't want to deal and that not enough progress has been made certainly, the undeniable fact is there was not enough of a resolution, there was not enough of an agreement to put that agreement in front of the top
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four congressional leaders and the president to even discuss going forward. the fact there is not that, they only have a few days to get there before the president is slated to leave for about ten days in asia of course, congress needs some time to pass whatever agreement they reach, if they reach one before that deadline approaches. >> kayla, the permitting reform element was seen as maybe the most constructive thing going on right now, would you go there? >> i think so. i mean, when i talk to administration officials, they note that appropriations, so spending caps, and permitting reforms seem to be the most fertile ground for compromise as far as what republicans have put on the table and where the administration is willing to go. but the question is what permitting reform looks like there was a speech earlier this week from john podesta, he was saying the type of permitting reform they would back would be to speed up clean energy investments. the type of permitting reform that a lot of republicans want
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is for more legacy energy projects as well it depends on exactly what the language is for permitting reform, but at least in concept, that is an area where they seem to agree >> all right kayla, thank you we'll get into this a little later in the hour with m iaya a daniel clifton. >> thanks to kayla. let's get to the markets according to the new note from wells fargo, the gains we've seen from meta, apple, microsoft are masking the fact that 48% of stocks in the s&p are down for the year that's exactly what our next guest is focusing on he says his biggest concern on the technical side is the lack of broad participation from the small caps fidelity director joins us, jurrien timmer is the lack of small cap playing, is that a big macro concern? >> it's a technical concern. we know that when the market
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bottoms after a bear market, which obviously we've been in, at least last year with a 28% decline, that you tend to see broad, you know, like -- we call it a breadth thrust, a lot of participation from a lot of companies. that comes after a big washout, of course. right now depending on where on the cap structure you look from the mega caps down to the microcaps, you can draw a completely different conclusion from what the market is looking like based on which index you look at. so, obviously the s&p is at the range highs. and i tend to look at it more from a pe basis. you know, the low is 15.3 times expected earnings. we're at 18.5. that has been the high of the range. it looks like we're trying to push through there, in which case you look at the playbook of what early cycle bull markets look like. but then you look at the s&p equal weighted or the russell 2000 or russell microcap index
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and it's an entirely different picture. you go across the atlantic and look at the europe index, that looks really good, too it's a really disspirit set of charts right now. >> on s&p earnings, you give the quarter pretty good grades you talk about margins stabilizing. you suggest in larger name trades, the pain would be higher. >> yes clearly higher we have the bank headlines, we have this notion of there's going to be this other clearing event for earnings, which the estimates are too high then you look at the actual data 80% of companies in the first quarter beating their estimates by about 700 basis points. i look at the progression of estimates going into the earning season and then coming out of it a very large bounce. and so it does make you wonder whether there is going to be that flush i think that's what a lot of people are waiting for
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it's the recession that won't show up and that recession would be manifested with much weaker earnings estimates i think that's a popular way of looking at it. but the market is doing something different. my sense looking at the global tape, and i look at, for instance, the european market up 15.5% year-to-date with the russell large cap growth index, my sense is we are in this desynchronized earning cycle and we don't have to wait if there is this flsh out in earnings in the u.s., because global earnings are moving ahead of the u.s. here. we can just own the global stories and not really worry about whether there is another clearing event here in the u.s >> what stands out to me about the action this week, the dow is down more than 1%. the nasdaq is up 0.5%. communication services as a group is up 4% and alphabet is
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up 11% i know they had their big ai event but netflix is up sharply this week as well as the cyclicals get hit really hard. is big cap tech a safe place to be >> i mean, it's back to the stay at home stocks from during the pandemic again, it seems to be a safe place to be right now, but it's a narrow place to be the two largest companies in the s&p are 14% of the index it makes stock-picking pretty hard you would need to own all of those and then more to really outperform the index so, it's not something that we would normally want to see in a classic, early cycle bull market where you look at an earnings recovery, which con den success estimates are pointing to. whether they're correct or not remains to be seen then you look at the expectations for the fed to possibly pivot, and i think those expectations are maybe too optimistic that gets you to the early cycle
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scenario and the tape, the actual construction of the market index doesn't really agree. it wouldn't be those mega cap growers. it would be the financials and the industrials, et cetera >> well said, jurrien. one of the confounding parts about this cycle we're in. great to see you good weekend >> thank you very much up next, dow going nuclear ceo jim fitterling is with us as they continue investments in alternative energy. meetings between the white house and congressional leaders are postponed. credit default swaps at highs and details ahead.
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watching crude today wti is on pace for the fourth straight week of losses. that's the first time since september we've seen that. concerns of worsening macro adding to demand worries, even with the headline that department of energy might refill sbr, we'll see. citi did say brent may be below $80 by year end. >> worries about china dominated this week. we saw that in the price of copper as well clearly crude oil reacting. let's turn to a different kind of energy dow chemical announcing one of its plants in texas will be going nuclear with plans for a reactor to eliminate carbon emissions at the 5,000 square
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foot manufacturing facility. construction expected to start in 2026. joining us is dow ceo jim fitterling jim, thanks for joining us >> good morning, sara. thanks for having me >> good morning. this is really interesting when i think of nuclear plants, i think of powering electricity for a city or more. i don't necessarily think of it as powering it for a plant is this a new concept? >> well, we're pleased to be working with x energy, our partner under the dod's advance reactor demonstration program to bring advanced nuclear or small modular nuclear reactors into industry this will be first of its kind in industry to basically take our power and steam production at the texas site completely to nuclear. and we chose x energy because their technology allows us to not only generate electricity we need at the site but to generate
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high-pressure steam. most of industry, our industry in particular, but many materials industries require a lot of processed heat and steam, as much this is they do electricity. >> i also found it interesting because nuclear is sort of out of vogue, jim, and there are all sorts of safety concerns people think of germany just last week shut down the last three nuclear plants. i know it's kind of a controversial decision, but was it tough to get department of energy on board with this? >>. >> well, this is a whole new nuclear application that's coming out these advanced small modular reactors will be the future of safe, reliable base load power one of the challenges you can see happening in the country right now from california, even texas, up and count east coast is we're starting to have times of day where you're starting to have power outages that's because we've taken out base load power and replaced it primarily with wind and solar.
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we're big advocates of wind and solar and we use a lot of wind and solar, but we need 24/7 reliable power power needs to be sustainable, reliable and affordable. and that's where we think new nuclear fits this is an inherently safer technology than what you're used to seeing and in the utility sector, nuclear is based on light water reactors and you're thinking of large one gigawatt unit it's an 80-megawatt that generates enough power and steam for us we'll put four small modules together at the site and we'll take the site to zero carbon emissions from power and steam it will eliminate 440,000 tons of carbon and steam emissions just by that one application and we think on top of hydrogen and carbon capture, which will also be critical, small modular nuclear will be the future for
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industry and probably for utilities. >> it's interesting, jim your point about the grid demand is a good one. i wondered if you think concerns about that are going to get more acute because of, i don't know, ev adoption or is the market efficient enough to get that supply out in front of that kind of curve >> you know, i think two things have to happen one, we have to realize that clean, natural gas has been one of the things that got us to this point and it's a simple calculation on the grid if you take 1,000 megawatts of coal-fired power off the grid, you can't just replace it with 1,000 megawatts of wind and solar. that delivers about 240 megawatts reliably to the grid that 1,000 meg awatts of goal i 90
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natural gas, much more reliable supply and i think we have to realize from an economic standpoint, people at home are not going to want to live through days where they have hours of power outages. people in industry are not going to move their factories back to a country that can't provide them 24/7 reliable power so, we think -- we think nuclear is part of that future equation. we think hydrogen and carbon capture are a part as well. >> it's super interesting. we'll follow it as we try to figure out what a zero emissions future looks like. i just want to ask you, while we have you, we were talking about china and weakness in crude oil and copper you always have a good sense of what's happening on the global end market side of things, producing chemicals for so many different sectors. what's your take is the global economy slowing? are we entering recession? what does it look like >> we have a couple of economies going on right now
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obviously, the service economy is very hot. the industrial economy in most sectors has slowed down. we saw that from the middle of last year right through the end of the year. a lot of discussion about destocking, but also, remember, durable goods and housing were slowing down as we went to the end of the year and they continue to be slow. and housing in china looks just like the housing market here in the states it's at a slow point right now and there's no signs it's going to recover quickly i think the other side of this is there are some positive signs in industrial sector you're seeing things like agriculture, which is moving positive you have mining, you talked about copper i think that's driven obviously by the infrastructure. demands that are going to be coming for more transmission for electric power but on durable goods, on memory chips and semiconductors, things we were buying at the peak of the pandemic, more shifted to
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the service economy and that's why the inflation discussion is around wages and unemployment rate and that's obviously the service economy is going to drive those numbers pretty dramatically it feels like things are gradually improving but it also feels like we might be through the destocking things are hand-to-mouth, i would say, from a retail and a consumer perspective and you can see that in shipping, like overseas shipping and truck shipping there's more availability today but -- and the prices have come down, but you can see there's not a real strong demand pull. and i think all of these other issues on the outside are keeping the consumer a bit on the sidelines from going back into big-ticket purchases. >> it's why it's so confusing to figure out the data. fed should talk to you it, if they don't already jim, appreciate it tale of many economies >> great to see you.
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have a good weekend. >> good to see you. still to come, deutsche calls walmart a pick ahead of earnings next week they say they can make a run past 170 we'll talk about that. we're watching netflix try for eight straight days of gains. that would be the longest winning streak since september of 2021. "wall street journal" reporting the company is planning to cut spending by $300 million this year you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.
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european stocks set to close in a few minutes higher trickling headlines out of g7 driving the market narrative with finance chiefs debating a reduction of supply chain reliance on china. that's where most of the headlines have been. big mover overseas is luxury goods maker riche mont after a big earnings beat on the top and bottom line. while we're looking abroad, a
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lot of focus on south african's currency hitting a record low on reports the country may have provided arms to russia. that's obviously something that officials have -- u.s. officials have accused and are looking at and we'll wait to see any final determination. that currency has been hit hard. the richemont, the owner of cartier, strong demand in china. despite some of the mixed signals out of china, the luxury consumer there is doing just fine richemont saw 12% growth this is where the action is. lvmh, richemont. >> we mentioned coach. >> tapestry, yeah. >> and the only question is how much disparity in income levels are the chinese willing to tolerate if the high end does extremely well and the low end does not do we still end with a policy rate cut some time this quarter. >> well, they have to contend with that. for now these european luxury
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makers, that's one reason the european stock market has outperformed the u.s. stock market because they are more exposed to companies like this, which has been very strong >> yeah. meantime, this downgrade of disney has wall street buzzing walmart coming up after the break. first, cnbc celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage month this month sharing stories of influential aapi leaders, like this one >> what i would love for people to learn and take away from my own journey as an iranian american is that when you stay financially curious, that's when you can actually start to build wealth it is the ultimate foundation for getting answers and leading you down the paths that are well aligned with your goals. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way
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time for a look at the research notes catching our attention. starting with retail earnings. deutsche bank says look to value for the win, naming walmart among top pick, raising the price target and same store sales estimates. walmart is set to report on thursday courtney reagan follows the company, joins us now. courtney, walmart has been a
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safe port in the storm certainly in the stock market. what do expectations look like for earnings zeets that i good point. walmart shares have definitely outperformed when you look at either the xlp, the consumer staples, or the xrt, the broader retail etf but it is certainly a consumer staple in a lot of senses. as you know, the over index in grocery, more than half of their sales are from grocery, which is important to remember for a number of reasons. number one, while it is profitable, it is a lower margin than general merchandise walmart has told us that they have seen more grocery sales, which, of course, does help drive foot steps and drives repeat shopping trips but at a lower margin it's also important to know that the end of the emergency s.n.a.p. benefits are ending and walmart called that out. that's important to remember numerator looked at this and said, actually, shoppers are
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buying fewer groceries as a result of that i think that's important to remember you brought up the deutsche bank note, calling out walmart as a top pick they did increase their estimates, looks like slightly above what the street is expecting. for walmart same store sales they have been markedly positive, which is something phenomenal for the size, the dollar value of walmart sales. but they're expected to grow just over 5% this time around for those walmart u.s. same store sales, which is below the rate we saw last quarter at about 8% walmart also said december was their highest sales month ever so there's a lot going on sort of under the surface at walmart, especially as we're looking at potentially shaky ground for that core consumer >> and, you know, we're in this period of high wage growth but we still remember years ago when walmart was one of the first to start to put money towards associate pay. i wonder if they're going to pull a microsoft and say, you know what, we're going to maybe hold wage growth at the associate level morsteady this
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year that would be a big story. >> it really would i remember that day when they announced that big wage increase program. i believe you sat down with mcmillan at the time to talk about that they've continued on that program and they've continued to add beyond just sort of the dollar value that associates get, the benefits when it comes to health care benefits or some of the educational benefits. perhaps, that's a continued area of investment as opposed to just wage growth. they have the largest private workforce in the country so it would be a big deal if they made changes to the wage structure. something they've had to watch very carefully to make sure they're paying their associates an appropriate wage but it's a very big expense for the company because of the large workforce they do have. >> we'll watch, one of the tent pole numbers of next week. thank you. disney downgrade at wolf and they removing content while
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raising prices, quote, cognitive dissidence they shaved some operating income numbers by about 5%, julia. >> yeah, i mean, what's so interesting here is this wolfe downgrade is subscribers, and you have cord cutting, challenging to the ad market on the other hand, you have in the direct-to-consumer streaming business, they've been raising prices, so there you have pressure on consumers, maybe you have more turn they're going to be taking off some of the content. so, they say they can be very strategic. disney says they can be strategic about what type of content they're investing in and it's not going to impact turn. the fact they are talking about more price hikes for the ad-free version and investing more in the version with ads, you have to wonder what that's going to
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do to subscriber numbers what's essential is they're seeing pressure on the old business and on the new business >> it's the only -- have you seen any other downgrades? everyone else reaffirmed buy and took down numbers. it feels like analysts really buy into the iger strategy. >> you know, there was another note from jpmorgan out today talking about the potential for espn and this question of when espn is going to go direct-to-consumer i think what's so fascinating here about bob iger's vision and his evolving vision for the company is he's acknowledged his perspective is changing as he has learned more just three months ago or so he was talking about the fact he wasn't sure about general entertainment. this time around he says he's committed to general entertainment and he knows it's an essential piece of the business, pushing towards this new bundle of hulu plus disney plus i think for the most part investors see the selloff and the fact that the stock is at its lowest level since iger resumed as ceo again as, perhaps, an opportunity.
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but really a lot of sense from analysts and investors that maybe there's more clarity into what the company is going to look like a year from now. maybe it's more about having that remaining stake in hulu, having more of a robust bundle that maybe people are less inclined to drop when a show like the mandalorian is over locking in consumers and minimizing that churn. >> you mentioned jpmorgan, pretty interesting game theory about what you do with espn be, what does that do to your renewals, sub fees they frame it as a moment that could be the tipping point for a trend that's already in place. >> you know, as a media reporter, we always talk about sports as the glue that holds the tv bundle together that's the role sports always played people pay for that live tv bundle because they know they need to watch their sports once you take live sports out of that, and we are already starting to see players such as amazon, such as youtube pick off individual sports rights once you see espn going direct
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to consumer, that could have a massive impact on those overall tv subscriber numbers and really drive that court cutting even further. that's a key factor to watch iger will be strategic he won't do it until it makes sense in terms of a revenue and profitability standpoint. >> by the way, no comment from nelson peltz on the quarter of disney, but i do wonder, he dropped the proxy fight after bob iger came out with his vision to make all these changes, cut costs, reorganize the structure, how much time iger has to make good on that and to show some results after a thumbs down kind of quarter. after the break, u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen heading to g7 with a looming debt crisis. reiterating that default should be unthinkable she's in japan now with that message. the cbo this hour warning of distress in credit markets, and rapid increases in borrowing rates for the treasury if an extension is not agreed upon we'll talk autbo what that looks
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quick check on news corp., the stockle is among the top s&p performers as eps and revenue beat estimates more positive macro trends. >> stock's up 6% not bad. washington, meanwhile, kicking the can on the debt ceiling. congressional leadership postponing today's planned meeting with the white house
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after -- until next week after tuesday's meeting ended without a deal the pressure is on the congressional budget office out this hour saying in a new report, there's significant risk of default in the first two weeks of june before tax receipts arrive on the 15th. joining us with what they expect, committee for responsible federal budget president, maya and strategic research partners dan clifton. good to have you on. you're the experts on this topic. the cbo underscoring the urgency and the timeline for getting things done. what are you hearing will it happen >> i am feeling hopeful and reasonably optimistic and it has to happen. we can't be so stupid as to actually default when there's no reason to. what the cbo underscores is two important things one, it's absolutely critical we lift the debt ceiling and time is running out, and it should have been done months ago. and our fiscal path is unsustainable. it shows we have huge deaf sits
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and debt and the situation is getting worse. the most important thing is we lift the debt ceiling without drama. if we're able to attach a package of savings, which it looks like we are, that will be helpful and start to move us off this unsustainable trajectory. >> dan, you see it in the t-bills, the one-month treasury bills, highest level since back in 2001. so, even higher than they were in 2011 when we got close again and got downgraded not much in the markets. are investors underpricing the risk >> i would disagree with that. if you look ush the hood of the market, can you see a very similar trend today as to july of 2011. you see the defensive stocks that did really well in 2011 outperforming the stocks that did really bad in 2011, the cyclical stocks, you see it in gold, you see it in treasury most importantly, you see it in the companies that have the most revenue from the federal spending as the market begins to
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price in there will be less spending i would argue, though, this is the first of a multi-period of aus stairty we're going into this is the first time in 35 years we have a rising debt servicing cost we've been able to cut taxes, increase spending, doing it without increasing our debt servicing cost and lunch is over we joke in our office that maya will be the busiest person in washington as this new period of austerity kicks in. >> pimco has been constructive writing, passing the debt ceiling is like passing a kidney stone. everyone knows it will ultimately pass. it's a question of how painful it will be is that what you're reading? are you reading intelligence or just hope? >> it's somewhere between the two. it's slightly informed hope, but i don't know how exactly -- how
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well things are going. but i do know the fact that it makes sense there's a deal to be had. i will point out the short-term savings are the things they're focusing on are not focusing on the bigger picture here. what we have to do is deal with the real structural problems in the economy and the federal budget those come from social security and medicare, both headed towards unsolvency and a political class of everyone saying they promise not to fix the problem. that's not helpful and we need new revenues pretending we aren't isn't realistic. i hope as part of this deal, in addition to looking at short-term savings they're able to put in place a commission that deals with two things one, the structural imbalances we know are a problem and, two, the kidney stone thinking is sticking with me, to reform the debt ceiling it's time to have a fiscal constraint in our budget process but not one that has a threat of default that's so dire we know our political system is dangerously broken they don't do anything on time
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these days everything is a huge battle and fight. we should not have these self-imposed crises where you can already see the uncertainty affecting the markets and potentially causing real problems even if we do avoid default. we have to put an end to this kind of drama. >> maya points out the idea of an commission. is that another instance of kicking the can or is there enough -- is there enough stronger thinking now to make a commission actually with some teeth? >> yeah, so, i would start off by saying that, you know, the first focus is on discretionary spending that's going to be the core of this package the unobligated covid funds is second and see if they can do something on energy permitting reform which would be difficult but that's why we do it in two steps. you do something in commission, setting up a similar 1981 type situation, regreeted the greenspan commission that was the last time you had that rising interest cost. you're looking for commission to start setting the stage. the ultimate catalyst for entitlement reform will be the fact that these trust funds are
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starting to be queezed by rising interest costs and the threat of benefit cut payments just by doing nothing should force congress to act. the commission may accelerate that but ultimately we have to deal with these issues dealing with the interest cost exploding. >> we're entering the age of austerity, which is not something we're used to. we've been in the age of spending what exactly are you looking at? that has serious growth implications. >> it's simple once we hit 14% of interest cost as a percentage of tax revenues, you start to see fiscal policy start it go into a long-term austerity. right now we're at 12.7. we'll likely be at 14 in the next few months. it won't be immediate, but if you look out to 2025, all the trump tax cuts expiring so tax cuts and free spending will likely end most people elected in washington and most people who
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invest in markets only know a period of more fiscal stimulus and globalization. both of those are reversing at the same time. investors need to change their framework moving forward. >> do you share that outlook, maya >> i think that's exactly right. we have a political class and an economic class that is very used to the stimulus that comes from excessive borrowing. now we're starting to see the downside of that borrowing that is not just affecting our economy in the long term, it will affect our national security and our position in the world. but specifically when it comes to those interest payments, which the warnings are exactly right, we are soon going to be spending more on interest than we do on national defense. we are already spending more on interest than we do on children. the whole way our federal budget is allocating resources is turning upside down because of all this borrowing in the past and because rates were so low, people kept saying, let's keep this party going now we see the effects of inflation and we see the fact that our huge debt means that even small increases in interest rates lead to large increases in interest payments.
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this is the beginning of starting to pay the price. what concerns me is our huge levels of polarization make cooperating to fix the situation very difficult everybody demagogues whenever they can in order to remain strong, again, from a national security perspective and economic perspective, we have to start making these changes as soon as possible and particularly while the economy is strong enough to absorb them. >> it's good to have you both on really smart thank you so much. >> thank you coming up after the break, under the radar, ai winners. we'll break down the bull case for a few names that are not normally in the headlines. plus, solar among the top winners today. the solar etf tan on pace for its best day since november '22. first solar, array thnogs,ecolie enphase energy that's what's driving markets.
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it's been a decent year for the s&p, up more than 7% but according to socgen it's due to ai saying the index would be down 2% on the year if not for some popular ai names. steve kovacs looking into under the radar ai names on "tech check. >> reporter: we talk about the giants in ai, microsoft, nvidia. getting some bullish calls on a handful of under the radar ai companies. morgan stanley highlighting
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education company pearson. morgan stanley arguing shares can move higher if large language ai models are built on reliable data from pearson the message here ai can be a boon for getty can offer text to images trading around $6 right now. let's move on to concentrix which works on customers bank of america analysts are seeing opportunity here. generative ai more likely to be used as a tool and not a replacement. finally nice, that's another customer experience company, oppenheimer analysts saying the ai platform shift will be a catalyst for the company since they improve online communication. but it's not all bullish out there, guys.
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still plenty of fears ai will pose a real risk and disrupt some companies rbc analysts pointed out with the company lowering to $32 from $42 after executives on the earnings called talked about an increased interest in ai tasks on its platform creating some negative sentiment among investors. lots on fiber could be done by ai the overall thing we're learning is ai touches more than pure tech companies >> it almost seems like a communications issue or a narrative building for the communication chiefs at this point of what companies can most effectively convince investors out there that they are using ai to generate higher revenues, higher profits and change their business because it's hard to judge just who is actually doing that and who is not, isn't it, steve? >> reporter: it seems, sara, this debate between are these ai tools going to be a replacement for workers or, like i said, a tool to kind of help you do your job more officially and better
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it could be both it could be a hybrid of the two. that's the overall thing as people try to figure out what the impact of ai will be on these companies. we saw what happened to chegg last week when they said they're worried about ai and then coming back the next day on our air saying, look, we're creating our own ai tools, it will be fine. it's really just hard to judge, and people are still trying to figure it out. >> good piece with pichai arguing maybe more lawyers even with ai in the future because you're going to need legal strategies we'll see. >> i forget who said it. the workers will be displaced by ai are those not working with ai >> exactly steve thanks steve kovach new leadership at twitter. more details after the break
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"the buzz" this morning has been all about twitter's new ceo. julia boorstin has new confirmation on it julia? >> reporter: elon musk making it official he's tweeting out i'm excited to welcome linda yaccarino saying she will focus on business operations while i focus on product design and new technology musk going on looking forward to
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working with linda to transform this platform into x, the everything app nbc universal announced linda yaccarino as ads chief will be stepping down and just yesterday musk announced that he found her and would be starting in six weeks. how this plays out after building up twitter's business after so many paused after elon musk taking over >> julia boorstin, clearly linda will be missed at nbc but a she's a force in the advertising market and in the advertising community. got a hint, remember, when we covered the possible conference in miami when she was on stage with musk and he made it clear he was there to help court advertisers and talk about the strategy there with some of his new content moderation
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people were speculating then clearly advertising is front and center here and nobody better. >> what do you think, julia, it does to the emphasis on twitter blue or the $8 a month that you would pay for certain privileges on twitter >> reporter: it's so interesting because here i think is a major acknowledgement from musk that advertising really matters up until now twitter has been entirely an ad supported platform, the subscription business she has an understanding of how to get consumers to interact with ads, and i think that he's going to be deploying her to build up and sort of make that ad business strong while probably in partnership with her how to figure out how to manage the subscription business as well i think it is a major acknowledgement this is an ad-supported business and will be for quite some time >> julia, thanks last hour, he hopes he uses
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linda to bring advertising to linda -- >> which doesn't advertise >> getting more competition. >> putting her in the inner circle obviously people are optimistic, anyone who knows her knows that's a good thing. >> we are off the session highs. dow is up about 100 at the highs currently down about 40. big week next week with retail and consumer names >> target and walmart. >> let's get to the judge. carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center this hour, the big question about big tech. is the trade still a winner or should you take some profits after this year's strong start we asked the investment committee that question. joining me for the hour steve weiss, josh brown and and as it's anastasia amoroso. i do feel like, josh this is a good time to take the temperature of what's happening in big tech and alphabet is up 10% al

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