>> yes >> along with deere, another one of these >> and home depot. this was quiet next week's big. >> all right go ahead >> next tara energy and let's go, knicks >> win or go home tonight. i'll see you on "closing bell. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange" on this friday. i'm kelly evans. a possible partner for regional banks. private equity names like blackstone are popping up. could they be part of the banking sector in a bigger way we'll talk to one investor about this and the analyst tells us why he sees 60% upside from here. and remember when inflation was

transitory that's a distant memory for most americans who expect high prices are here to stay we'll talk to a "wall street journal"ist about why that is such a problem first, though, dom chu with the numbers. >> the stock prices are actually falling. so that's probably one of the parts of the narrative that you want to talk about with regard to taming the inflation. but the s&p 500 is now just a hair above the 4100 mark you can see 4102 this is pretty much the lows of the session, down about 28 points as you can see right here we were up 13 points earlier on, looking like we were going to see a rally or a bounce. that sort of thing but the s&p 500 down about 2/3 of 1%. one half of 1% declines for the dow, 33,136. and the nasdaq down about 110 points, 12,217 the underperformer, off by almost 1%. so one of the places we are

seeing that narrative on the economy broader, not just here in the u.s. but around the world shift a little bit more negative is in the commodity side of things harder commodities, things that you mine and dig for copper prices are down about 9% over the course you can see here of the last month. wti crude price is down about 16%. some traders a investors look for these particular commodities as being more tells of that macro economic picture they used to call it dr. copper. so watch those particular trades play out and from a stock specific perspective, there are places moving in the market right now, but one of the things you want to keep a close eye on is the story developing around some of these other trades, specifically with regard to the regional banks. i'm going to highlight the one-week chart there's a bit of a divergence happening in stability pacwest bank we talked edable t week, off about 23% over the last one week. bank of hawaii that's been more

caught up in the ripple effects there, down about 25%. meanwhile, western alliance, kelly, we know this is one of the banks closest to the epicenter of the bank crisis it's now flat on the week, down about 1.5% so there's a real maybe interesting story developing about what the haves and have-nots are in some of these regional bank trades we'll see if investors play more into that in the coming weeks. back to you, kelly the cost of protecting the u.s. against default is surging. right now, it's even higher than what we saw during the last debt ceiling fight in 2011. this comes as joe biden and congress remain deadlocked over raising the limit this time, and comes at a delicate time, with secretary yellen meeting with bank leaders, and as the economy shows signs of a recession ben white is a chief economic correspondent, with our very own kayla. kayla, it's a newsy day in

washington what's the latest? >> reporter: the late zest that staff from both the white house and the congressional leaders offices are still trying to hammer out any potential areas of agreement there needs to be a meeting early next week before joe biden leaves for asia on wednesday if there is going to be any sort of agreement that can move forward in a timely manner before that june 1st default deadline so far, republicans have put forth four buckets, work requirements for people receiving medicaid, and food stamp benefits clawing back some of the covid aid. and then pursuing a deal to cap government spending for multiple years. i'm told reform and those spending caps are two of the lowest hanging frouts for these negotiations of course, the devil is always in the details there are a lot of details that need to be worked out. all of this while the congressional budget office is saying yes, early june is when the u.s. would in fact default and if treasury has to pay more than $300 billion in bills it

won't be able to do it with the cash it has on hand and might not be able to make it to june 15th when more tax revenue comes in >> what did the cbo say today? it seems like they're in the basket of, we could still hit in the first few weeks of june, maybe we can hold out a little longer i thought it was interesting what they said about the deficit and the debt that's why we're in this situation in the first place >> reporter: it's like a household budget if you could pay your water and electric bill but not pay the mortgage and conserve some of that cash, maybe you could stumble along and make it work but treasury has never been in this position and they are conservative about how to do this and there's certainly a lot of payments coming due. social security payments, federal salaries, tens of billions that they will need to pay. and june 15th is when the tax revenue comes in cbo says if treasury can make it to june 15th, then based on how much cash comes in from some of those tax receipts, maybe it

could make it to late july but there is a lot of ifs in there, and a lot of conditions on what exactly treasury decides that it can and must pay and what ends upcoming in on june 15th. >> exactly but let me turn to you on that we obviously see investors pricing in a pretty high default chance but there's to reaction in the stock market the fact that credit default swaps are now higher than we saw in 2011, without a market impact, is striking. >> it is striking, and it does show you that there are those in the market who understand that this particular debt limit standoff is much more complicated and difficult than the last couple, since 2011 when we got downgraded by standard and poors. that was the first time in our history that we got close to a default. the contours are there for that to happen again, given all that was just said about the timing and getting to june 1 versus june 15. so the risk is -- >> the tax receipts were terrible in april, like $200

billion short. may has been kind of soft. so that's pushing us closer. >> we're not getting better news on that front. so if anything, the deadline is pushed forward a little bit. i still believe that there is a deal to be had here, that will include some giveback of the covid money that hasn't been spent, and then a hike of the debt limit republicans know, kevin mccarthy, the house speaker, needs to keep the speakership by getting something through that republicans can support. but they know every time this happens, they get hammered for it, they get blamed for it there's new polling that they would blame republicans. >> but it's odd. there's who do you blame in a debt ceiling fight, but what do you want to be done about spending a lot of people say i want austerity. and this is the point dan keeps making, all of this is about -- in 2011, when obama raised the debt ceiling, he had to concede to significant austerity

>> we can't really afford austerity cuts right now, or big, discretionary spending limits what was in the original republican plan are drastic cut it is you take out the military, which they said they would the economy can't afford that. that's not going to happen there is a deal here, kelly. it just needs to be made and it's not a bad sign that they're not meeting today. that means staff is talking, get the principals together next week before biden leaves and hopefully save our summer. i don't want to be worried about this in july >> i thought former president trump's comments were interesting where he said he thinks republicans should push for huge spending cuts, and if that's any indication of where the public is on this, perhaps we should be prepared for a bigger fight >> reporter: he also said the country should default and see what happens, leaving some to

say that's why he doesn't trust him on matters like this kelly, i think that there are real questions as to what the path forward is, and how long these spending cuts can be agreed upon. because on one hand, there seems to be some rumblings that two years is the time frame that the administration would push for. but yesterday, republicans said if it's only two years that we're capping spending, then we need to get a lot in return for that the costs that we're going to exact, the price we're going to exact is going to be really high for two years. they want the curve of government spending to be redirected downward, which is a really big change from recent trends so the question of, how long the term is for any sort of spending caps deal remains to be seen some republicans have suggested a default is a good thing, because they want to show the administration that they're not worried about it but behind the scenes, they know that it would be a bridge too

far, that it's really just uncharted territory. you don't know what would happen after that >> part of the reason why that ten-year inversion has been as bad as it has been i thank both of you. let's turn to earning season, winding down but not before we hear from the retailers. one clear theme has been disappointing guidance my next guest says only a third of s&p companies have issued better than expected guidance. joining me is chris sennic any reason to expect a brighter tone from retailers? >> no. retailers have inventory issues and where there's been a slow down in goods spending so we're not optimistic that will change the trend. so far this earnings season, 33% of companies have issued guidance for the next quarter above the mid point. and that's a little better than

the past few quarters. but if the world was improving in a material way or the trends we had seen in the first quarter were expected to continue, you would think you would have a lot higher number than that, and we're just not seeing it >> now, a concern might be a quarter away, but maybe we could start to see that now. >> indeed. if you look at the broader market, for the third and fourth quarters, numbers haven't come down at all for the broader market so it's not even just a retail phenomenon, it's a broader market phenomenon. and that's why i think now the bar's been set quite high for q2 earnings season, where analysts raised numbers, companies have sounded okay the economy was a little better in the first quarter, we have to admit that now as we go into july reporting

season, the bar's going to be high we'll see what happens to the economy. >> i do like looking at the guidance as a barometer of where the market is relative to expectations you know, we've been worse, certainly in terms of only a third of companies issuing higher than expected guidance. from all of 2010 to 2020 we were in that range. this isn't that worrisome. and there are a couple of companies, marriott, boston scientific, exp, all names that had positive guidance and stock reactions in their results >> among the positive guidance across sectors, industrials, we saw the greatest percentage of upwards revisions. some of that was driven by the airlines like delta and united and companies that raised guidance, and also for the past two quarters, beat on revenues and eps, and the stock went up

w so if you're looking for new ideas, that might be a place to start where it seems like earnings trending have been solid and the guidance is a vote of confidence that that may continue >> chris, thanks for your time >> thank you still ahead, regional banks are facing not just losses on their bonds but gathering clouds over commercial real estate and other loans. but could private equity come to their rescue and speaking of banks, what's ridgdigital, nimble and always on? truist saying the aim of banking is now the analysts behind the call joins us to make his case. and here is a look at the markets with the dow down 135 points, close to session lows. we started in the green today. the nasdaq is down three quarters of 1% the ten-year, 3.44 back after this.

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exchange." the ongoing regional bank crisis causing large and small banks to tighten lending standards. but private players think private equity and family offices have been stepping up to fill those gaps. my next guest is willing to step in where banks won't joining me now is north wind group's managing partner >> thank you for having me >> talk to me about this new york deal, is that specifically because the banks aren't there >> we're seeing that the single part of the capital that has been provided by commercial banks, they're just not there for the macro environment. so we have been stepping up and providing financing, a-note financing. we provided an a-note on a hotel

being converted from a vacant hotel to a multifamily building. >> that's significant and a sign of the times it caught everybody's attention as they released the list of bidders. there were at least blackstone, maybe a couple of other firms on that list. what does that tell you? >> there's only a handful of firms that can write those kinds of checks right now. most of those loan pools haven't really traded because of it. the biggest discussion is what is the discount rate that they would buy those pool of loans that sit in those banks? >> absolutely. the larger question is whether there would be synergies between private equity and regional banks going forward. if they said banks have a deposit, a funding problem, could they package loans they're good at originating loans, but maybe on the deposit side they lose out to the bigger banks. could they do a business model where they sell loans to private equity and that becomes a more

stable funding structure >> what we are seeing is us partnering with some of these banks and delivering them, meaning there's specific loans they give. we get a higher return we get our return, they deliver, and that's a great solution. we've been doing it very actively >> why do you think this is a golden time for private credit in general we have seen some warnings how there could be risk here and policymakers are trying to keep an eye on that but why has so much activity moved to this? >> banks are not lending there's currently a huge need by borrowers. funds that have raised capital like ours in the last few years, we're able to deploy that capital. the reason it's a golden era, we're doing the same kind of notes we did a few years ago we have better sponsors, better properties and higher interest rates.

>> so if i were janet yellen saying, what do i know about the risks in these kind of private credit pools, and changing macro means there might be losses there that cascade through the economy, would there be reason to be concerned about that, or do you think they're sort of going to come out of this with maybe the -- much more positive results than we went through after the financial crisis in >> there's a real reason to be concerned. at office, a lot of complexity, a lot of vacancies and supply issues we focus mostly on residential loans, especially in dense masks like new york city there's a scarcity of supply it's a healthy thing we think the city needs to bring in much more supply to meet the demand that's why we see rent at all-time high. condo units are selling at a slower pace, but not at a reduced price. so we focus on residential loans. >> do you feel comfortable in that position?

how many more innings can we be in you feel comfortable about the long-term attractiveness there, could this have another year, two years, three years of a bull market to play out >> i think it's the opposite of a bull market right now. but it's all about the micro new york city residential looks healthy. so we're lending on that new york city office, we're staying away for the most part >> sure. a final question on interest rates, if the fed becauses here, if they start to cut, what is the impact on business >> we're seeing the impact right now. interest rates where they are right now are suffocating the economy. people are not spending, people are not buying and mostly the borrowers can not borrow nobody can sustain these rates in the long duration all the profit margins are evaporating. >> so you think that will -- that will hit the economy next, no matter which way they go with

rates? >> we're already seeing it right now. >> absolutely. thank you for your time today. still ahead, first solar leading the s&p, having its best day in over a decade, up 23% what gives and why are more than half of the names in the solar etf still in the red and here is a look at the dow. two to three decliners outpacing advancers. ibm leading the way, though. "the exchange" is back after this

welcome back to "the exchange." markets have tipped lower this afternoon, we're off just the

lows of the session. we got only comments from ausan goo goolsbee not overly dovish in tone. that said, the dow right now is down 93 points the s&p is down 17 but at 4113, and the nasdaq is down consumer discretionary reflecting that is among the sector laggards. everybody else in even stevens utilities and staples are leading the way higher with interest rates falling utilities up a third of a percent. consumer staples, though, are barely positive. energy down again. fiber is set to end the week higher after cutting its net loss by 75% but ai could be a big risk to their business shares are at 28 today rbc warning that the ai risk to fiber is here to stay.

piper sandler attributed last week's 27% week in fiber around the potential of ai. why do you need someone to hire it if chatgbt can do it for you? that said, piper is more optimistic, saying the move is more based on the fear of what if, rather than anything known today. shares are on pace still for their worst month in about a year, down 22% elsewhere, chewy is a top consumer e-commerce pick, seeing more than 50% upside in the stock. it's down 1 fer% today. the firm pointing out it's trading at just one times forward revenue, down from a peak of 5 x in february of 2021. these are the eye watering multiples we used to see them trading at something to watch ahead of their q1 results on may 31 now over to courtney for an update >> reporter: here is your news update pakistan's former prime minister

was released on bail today, after khan was arrested on corruption charges earlier this week the opposition leaders arrest triggered protests, which left at least ten dead and dozened injured. in the u.s., kamala harris will kick off fund-raising efforts, headlining the event. this comes after joe biden began fund-raising for the 2024 re-election campaign in new york yesterday. and deputy secretary of state wendy sherman will retire. the top diplomat has been involved in foreign policy decisions during democratic administrations since clinton's presidency she played a key part in the biden administration's efforts to compete with china in the indo-pacific >> thank you very much coming up, digital nimble and always on. that's how one analyst describes this stock, which he calls the future of u.s. banking

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welcome back, everybody. the banking landscape is changing, and it's not just private equity amid the recent bank turmoil, my next guest says we could see more of a shift, and is calling this the future for the industry the stock down today, but up 9% so far this year joining me is the analyst, truist analyst jeffrey good to see you again. welcome. >> likewise, kelly thanks >> why sofi and not paypal or why not robinhood, why this one? >> sure. we like cash app, too. i think it has demonstrated a lot of consumer value. the thing about sofi that makes it different is it's truly a bank it's an fdic insured deposit institution. it his a leading app with a very slick ux

and most importantly, it's a chief beneficiary of some of the disruption we have seen in the banking industry you can see the company has increased deposits tenfold over the last year, and deploying them into very profitable loans. all for a single app, all data driven >> so when i think about all of these things, i think robinhood, i'm going to trade stocks. i think, you know, cash app obvious, venmo obvious sofi refinances student loans, so how would sofi -- how would i be involved with sofi at this point if i'm not in that particular market right now? >> you're right about how the company got its start. it has subsequently diversified pretty significantly its biggest product is personal loans. and the idea is, you track pe -- attract people to the platform,

especially with a 4.2% yield, which is a lot higher than banks. that's how they attract deposits although that funding cost is less than the secondary markets for their loans. and then they really help you, as they say, get your money right. make better financial decisions, but perhaps consolidate debt, lower interest rate payments, et cetera you know, i'm a customer myself, and i was attracted initially by the high apy, and able to consolidate by accounts all in one place, have them look at all of my assets in one place, get free financial advice, et cetera i think that is a truly differentiating aspect i suspect it's going to play to a younger demographic, but i think that's fine. that's the future. >> so i guess my concern is a little bit like we saw with direct to consumer e-commerce plays. so over time, are they going to have to have a high cost to compete and retain and attract

customers through either offering high yields and their accounts, or simply through advertising? at some point, all these are a commodity, and it's about who is best known, most out there with marketing. and a lot of the consumer plays have blown up as a result, because their business models aren't sustainable >> yeah, i think it's a fair question this company does have very strong unit economics, about three times, and the best thing about the model is once they acquire a customer or a member through the top of the funnel by their financial products, they don't need to acquire that customer again so you've got the customer on the platform he or she is engaged with the products and then begins to see the merits of additional monetizing lending products the other thing that distinguishes sofi is their tech platform embedded finance, the ability for -- to allow non-financial companies to offer financial services is a $3 trillion market and growing very fast.

it's only about 15% of their revenue today. but i suspect starting next year, that growth is going to -- growth this that segment will accelerate that's a profitable business this is a profitable company in my view. 23% r.o.e. at the bank today, not necessarily at the holding company. but it is profitable we estimate about $280 million this year. now it's got to grow fast enough and grow profitably, and underwrite well in a disciplined way, and maintain its charge-offs. and in that respect, it's very much a bank. >> it's how this banking crisis make people wary how fast a company is growing they're providing banking or finance tools to other kinds of companies. explain that for a minute. >> yeah. so probably the easiest product to understand would be a product called earned wage access. it's the ability to go to an

employer and say hey, you can offer to play your employees any way they want to be paid that's one example of financial service. so if somebody wanted to be paid daily or weekly, they can tailor their pay. point of sale lending is another example. these are all solutions that non-financial companies can bring to their customers without actually having to be finance companies or banks >> all right andrew, thank you very much for your time today. appreciate it. >> my pleasure v. a good weekend. >> you too speaking of banks, goldman sachs spinning off its first startup, a networking platform they call an ai-powered linked in on steroids our banking reporter has the story. hugh, it's sort of like while we are talking about the banking crisis, goldman, this is a big move by them what is going on here? >> kelly, great to be with you

not a whole lot of people know, about five years ago, goldman sachs saw a lot of people leaving to do their own ideas. so they said we're going to have our own startup incubator. so one of the first things that -- first ideas they had in these internal competitions was for something called luisa, which is ultimately a kind of linked in, except with ai prepopulating all the profiles, tanking from internal databasda. and looking at transaction data from the context of goldman sachs, creating a network of experts internally and then taking in news and saying, you know what? there's going to be an opportunity in power plant or a circuit chip plant in taiwan,

for instance, and that's going to be a huge opportunity for financing. let's get a person in singapore and a person in the u.s. and put them together. so it's coming up with ideas >> so it's more than just connecting people internally it's really about trying to identify external opportunities and immediately matching people to those >> right it's not passive in the case of generative ai, if they have put a layer on that, that is going to have these prepopulated bios, and it could write one for you and that would be helpful >> i'm just curious what it would look like inside a cnbc organization or any of the organizations out there, is it translatable from its success at goldman to other kinds of companies? >> the founder and ceo is approaching banks, law firms, consulting firms, anywhere,

where the people are the product. he's really going to pitch to nbc and cbs for that i think there's something to be said for -- there is a limit for how many people you can know personally and there are surely people in this organization that you can know >> in a way, it reminds me of the idea of being in the workplace to have these finds of networking opportunities if you can take that outside, then people don't ever have a reason to come in. i just want to make a point here the landscape a couple of years ago, so different. they had spun this out into a really hot ipo market, they could have made a killing on it. because the markets have changed, what does that mean for the significance of these startup investments and whether they continue to run this model inside the company >> they get to use -- tgoldman

sachs has no ownership in that >> did they lose employees as a result >> they lose the employees so it's a way for goldman sachs and managing directors to work themselves out of a job. so you have people that make $5 million, $7 million, maybe more, going into a high-risk, high-return gambit >> it's fascinating. >> goldman is unique in terms of the banks. i want to say cap one is known to be very tech forward. goldman is at the top of that, and they hired from google, amazon, tried to up their tech jobs >> fascinating hugh son with another look at the future of banking. still ahead, shares of first solar on pace for their best day in years but not all solar stocks are seeing the boost we'll tell you what is behind the split, next.

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welcome back, everybody. made in america, solar names are soaring today on updated tax guidance it's been a tough year for solar stocks these are the two worst performers since jan 1 let's bring in pippa stevens i mean, the volatility of these stocks continues to asound what now >> i think there's been a mismatch between what we're hearing from executives and how they performed however, we do need to extinguish between the supply chain. first solar is soaring because they are a panel manufacturer in the u.s. so they have operations worldwide, but including in the u.s., and they are the only actual sizable producer in the

united states. and so we got the updated guidelines today, with that 10% domestic content credit. we knew that was coming, but it -- >> what does the 10% credit mean >> there's a 30% credit already, and the 10% is specifically for domestic content so that's on top of the 30%, meaning if you're a utility scale provider, you get 40% in total if you buy those panels. this is very confusing, because it's divided the industry. some say it should have been at the sell level, while the you tilt companies say it should be at the module level, because they said if it was the more limited and narrower definition at the sell level, that would have curtailed the industry. >> these are huge incentives you can understand why the stocks are reacting. are we going to end up with more

manufacturing capacity here? why haven't the other companies either tried to mimic what they're doing or why don't we have new companies getting in to take advantage of this >> previously it wasn't profitable so china has a lock on that market so that's why people who are the developers in the u.s. have said we should focus on the modules, not the sells. ot and we are seeing a lot of producers announcing domestic manufacturing facilities for solar. we have others that are building at capacity in the u.s but this doesn't happen overnight. and we're waiting clarity on things until you get that clarity, you're not going to build out operations until you know what's going to happen. but it does speak to the challenge of trying to make a made in america supply chain, and also trying to grow solar at the fastest rate possible. so that's what has divided the

industry and so treasury went in the middle, because they created this provision where, in total, 40% of the content needs to be domestically made. that 40% spans the sells, the modules, and the trackers. so there is wiggle room there. no one is completely happy, but this is the middle line between what different parties were advocating for >> huge day for first solar. real quickly very different tone in the rest of the commodity space we talked about the declines in copper, other metals, industrial metals not acting that great oil is on pace for maybe its fourth weekly decline now. does this keep coming back to a week or darkening global economic outlook >> i think it's china specifically, which is such a key player of course, we talked about that story has failed to materialize. so kind of those markets -- check out nat gas. it is popping 5% today we just got the updated numbers from the rig count those plunged by 16 for the gas. so that is one thing that is in

the green today. also, the stronger dollar is what sent oil lower. it had been a little higher on the session, but the dollar has pressured it >> and copper has turned positive so crisis over pippa, thanks. still ahead, in a new piece, "the wall street journal" warns the fed will have to choose between a deep recession or giving up on its 2% inflation target and throughout may, cnbc is celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage, with stories of some of their influential business leaders here is eric toga. >> the asian american community is one that is built on resilience but what makes me most proud isn't just how we reacted to things that have happened to us, the things that we have gone through. but the way that we look forward into the future. asian americans contribute $1.5 trillion to the gdp. if you look at that, we are still underleveraged so what makes me most proud is the line of sight that we have,

that we can be so much more and continue to expand and continue to bridge and build those bridges with other communities so that the business world does thrive

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exchange." americans are getting accustomed to inflation according to t"the wall street journal" look at the wage negotiations playing out. united airlines offering an 18% raise for pilots delta implemented a 34% increase for pilots auto workers and hollywood writers could see big wage gains. consumers long-run expectation on inflation ticked up. let's bring in greg ipp from the "wall street journal." you're talking about missing expectations, right? >> yeah. think about it, kelly, i was so

surprised that people were so bullish on the cpi numbers inflation has been 5% analyzed for the last four months we're not seeing any dropoff in that series which is the main thing we're watching i think going back to the original point in the column, the fact that we're not all talking about it is troubling. if you go back to fall with the midterms, it was all the republicans wanted to talk about. it's just not in the political conversation it feels to me like people are getting used to it and the fact like the airlines are granting these big wage increases reflects confidence they can pass that along in higher prices. >> it's a weird sign that the fed lost some credibility. even if the market thinks that break evens are steady in the long term, american consumers are reacting as if they should expect higher prices and they need to demand wages to cover

that and it's fueling further price hikes which might not have been in the pipeline >> you get into this fascinating debate about what series should we be watching to know if people's behavior has changed. the fed has traditionally focussed on the 5 to 10-year inflation number which you referenced it's still moderate at 3.2%. we don't have a foundation for believing that's the number we should care most about why don't we care about the one-year number? it's been at 4.5% for two years. there's a good case to be made that that's affecting consumer behavior. >> 4.5%, if i'm not negotiating a five-year contract, i need a 20% wage hike. we've seen some surprising

numbers. what do you make of the macro data broadly speaking? jobless claims are up, but people say it's just massachusetts. everything is explained away does that go back to your point that we almost have to have a deep recession to restore things back to precovid normal? >> right well, if my worries pan out and we have a switch on the psychology of the consumer such that they think 4% inflation is the norm, we know that means the fed has to deliver a weaker economy. you have to take away consumer spending power so the corporations don't have the raising power. the thing with the raising rates, we've seen some signs there was a rise in unemployment

insurance claims for a number of months maybe there's something going on with seasonals it looks like something is going on on the other hand the unemployment rate ticked down to a new low. the other thing that's striking is housing it's the most sensitive part of the economy. if you listen to the home builders, they're seeing pretty good demand, especially from the entry-level home buyer so it may be that the fed has more work to do here >> it's like steve liesman has said, if we can stop the clock now -- or as goolsbee said, he hopes for a soft landing, but hope is doing a lot of work there. greg, thanks for your time >> thank you, kelly. before we go, check out

bitcoin. once thought to be an inflation hedge, it's on track for its worst week since november. the cryptocurrency 26,000 and change with an 11% drop this week that does it for us on "the exchange." for more analysis sign up for any news letter at cnbc.com or scan the qr code on that screen. coming up on "power lunch," there's more than a 50/50 chance ai will wipe out humanity by the middle of the century. dom is getting ready and i'll join him after this break. new projects means new project managers.

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♪ welcome to "power lunch. alongside kelly evans i'm

dominic chu. here's what's ahead. you've seen the warnings from hollywood, "terminator," artificial intelligence, ai will disturb society. one firm is out with a terrifying warning, there's a 50/50 chance ai will wipe out, wipe out, all of humanity. will the benefits outweigh the risks? >> if we survive, must watch tv. elon musk making headlines today, stepping down as twitter's ceo, raising prices on tesla and recalling vehicles in china. first, a quick check on the markets. the major averages down about -- session lows down 183 for the dow. >> at the top of the