agreement between some miners. gold and other things. also pipeline operators. it is monday, may 15th and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin things are starting off in the green sharply for a monday you see the u.s. equities at this hour. the dow up triple digits gain of 108. s&p futures up 15. the nasdaq indicated up by 38. if you are watching treasury yields, right now, the 10-year treasury is sitting just at 3.478% 2 year at 4.004.

andrew. let's bring you up to date on the latest on the debt ceiling standoff president biden and speaker mccarthy and others are tentatively meeting tomorrow the meeting is not finalized and could change the president spent time biking in delaware yesterday and answered several questions and made this comment about the debt ceiling talks. >> i think the desire on their part as well as ours is to reach agreement. i think we will be able to do it >> the president says it is never good to characterize the negotiations in the middle he remains optimistic. >> that is the message from both sides. we will see. >> what else do you want to say? >> i'll tell you what we want to say. amy wu silverman options genius you know where all of the action is vix calls to 50.

some of them >> wow versus 14? 17 >> could inciding with the debt ceiling. there is a huge spike. and in 2007, there was a huge spike in the vix she will make a case for that again. you need the equity markets and congress and white house what do -- what to do. >> you won't see the volatility. >> maybe underneath it does. she does. >> a lot riding to see if the meeting is happening >> if they are watching, the white house -- i don't think who he is listening to that he that's stick to his guns i think he can become the joe biden of old the negotiator. he doesn't have to give much covid relief. >> that is on the table. >> good.

get it done. not only did i do all this other stuff, but i got to keep my i.r.a. his inflictflation reduction ac. let's move on. >> let's see if he does. and then when he does, if he gets praised for it. >> well, i'm not going to do that. >> see that's the point that is the point. >> he has nothing to lose. we have to come up with a name for this company. gold giant newmont is buying newcrest i think crestmont? new-new. that was nano-nano new crestmont. $19 billion.

they spend millions. >> newmont it will be newmont crest >> the transaction has been approved by the board, but requires regulatory approval it signalled this month it planned to wrecommend the app approved takeover. gold prices have held uppe bett than digital gold. let's also check the price of copper the deal boosts the newmont exposure to that metal there is another deal. pipeline operator one oak is buying magellan for $14 billion for cash and stock that is a 22% premium over the friday close it would be the largest u.s. based pipeline firm by market cap.

you see one oak is lower fan atfanatics is buying u. assets of pointsbet for about $150 million pointsbet shares are traded in australia. the stock tumbled overnight. the company is expected to hold a shareholder vote in june the stock is down 21%. our parent company nbc universal will get proceeds from the previous deal and will no longer have an equity stake nbc universal acquired a 4.9% in pointsbet in 2020. a sports trading card business and has been building out the sports betting division. that is why michael rubin had to

get rid of his franchise >> i dwidn't know if you would bring that up. >> the 76ers >> my daughter was down there for a friend of her's graduation she was wearing all of her 76ers gear jayson tatum he had a good argument for the mvp. 50 points ever most points in a seventh game. harden and embiid not so great games. the defense was unbelievable horford and the other gentleman. >> nice job. >> the 76ers keep getting to this point and can't get over. they changed people.

harden and em -- embiid. tatum, a classy guy. it would be hard to be gracious with the beatdown. they took the good players out at the end of the game here we go it will be a good four teams we know who they are it could end up celtics and lakers. >> days of old coming up, major retailer set to report this week. we will show you what is on the "squawk planner. it could be heat and nuggets big lineup today two fed officials. bostic and an goolsbee now he does go by president austan goolsbee. it was from the chicago fed. i didn't realize it.

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no way it is time for the "squawk planner. we will get on the data front april retail sales and april housing and the jobless claims on the earnings front, a busy week for retail reports which are increasingly interesting and important. we hear from home depot tomorrow and target and tjx on wednesday. walmart and alibaba on thursday. then deere, not retailer, but interesting company and foot locker on friday our next guest doesn't need to come on because i said everything she is thinking the market has been like a duck appearing calm on the surface, but paddling underneath amy wu silverman from rbc capital markets.

amy, market is 4,200 on the s&p. nasdaq is up if it looks like a duck and qua quacks like a duck, it's a duck. you can't tell what is going on underneath >> who knows it could be like a duck in that way. we will see certainly how the debt ceiling resolves itself yeah, you know, what i meant is it appeared calm from the equity perspective, joe, but from a volatility perspective the reality is the violent sector rotations underneath. you know, your headline vix numbers are muted. if you look at the demand for the vix going higher, that is at historic highs it is concern, but it is forward looking. >> because we always talk about consensus and use that as a contrarian indicator, i was

fascinated what you said about the vix. we would not know about all of the call volume which is expecting a spike in the vix i guess you have to say it is similar to what we have seen in bills. it has to do with the debt ceiling, doesn't it? >> that's exactly right. you know, one of the charts i have been looking at right now is if you plot the vix year to date against where we were in 2011 which is a contentious debt ceiling, the vix was muddling around as well, but you hit the summer months and you start to hit the 11th hour discussions and vix spiked to 48 and spent the summer at 30 more than ten full points above now and it still ended higher than 20. the reason you are seeing the historically high demand for calls for vix higher from here is because we're wondering if we get the 2011 playbook. obviously, the higher the vix

goes, the more the market is drawing down. >> right here is my point about contrarian the one thing you are not seeing set up in the options market is a melt-up. in other words, one of the reasons the vix is where it is now is because it is all in call volume there is no put volume whatsoever that makes me think if nobody is betting on a melt-up, that may be more likely i'm not sure they get paid off for buying all the calls >> yeah. look, i've been traveling the past few weeks of i have seen investors in europe and canada i have to say it is consensus bearishness out there. that does make me ask the question what's the scenario that nobody is pricing i can tell you definitively the options pricing is not pricing any up-crash scenario like you say. if we do get some miraculous

congressional detante and it gets resolved earlier, the market is not positioned that way. you are right. >> on the flip side and i have given, you know, if anyone was watching in d.c.d.c., it is eari know the president could do it. he would look good if he got together and did a deal. he was known as a dealmaker. sometimes i think he is listening to the wrong people this time. the other thing that you said, though, is that sometimes these people down there need a selloff in the equities markets to get off their -- get out of their chair and do something >> yeah. it is interesting because there is a cognition going on.

the wag the tail of the dog. the president is aware the equity markets can be a tool maybe you need the drawdown first before you get the action. this is one of the interesting things where we speak to investors about the debt ceiling and i don't think anybody truly thinks there will be a default they also don't think they can look through this. they have to get through this. getting through it in some way means we get to a higher volatility level i think that is why when you think about the positioning in the market right now, the most positioning is coming in the vix call options and super high interest in the summer months. >> a lot of politicians talk about what it would look like in terms of the equity drawdown they have been threatening that could happen that makes me think they know what they're doing as well there is no reason it is so stupid. no reason to get to that point we know we will pay our bills eventually and we can. that is why we are the reserve

currency of the world. we always do this is some crazy -- they're like children and the rest of the country looks at what is happening and wonders who elected these people they did anyway, amy, i'm not asking you. you don't need to comment on that thank you. always informative to have you on if you looked at the overall averages, you don't see this stuff. the paddling of the duck >> it could be a buying opportunity. >> i like the melt-up scenario it is not being taken into account by anyone and that is something that is a possibility it happens >> definitely. >> thank you coming up on the other side of the break, the ceo linda yaccarino tweets for the first time since accepting the job details after the break. and don't miss the interview

with paul tudor jones happening in the 8:00 hour don't go anywhere. "squawk box" returns after this. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth. where we focus on person-to-person connections so you can focus on what matters most doors can take us to new adventures and long-term goals.

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to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. welcome back incoming twitter ceo linda yaccarino tweeted about the job and said user feedback is vital. yaccarino joined from her head of advertising of nbc universal and tweeted yesterday about

mother's day bel bel belated mother's day to those h here at the table and my wife. did you have a good mother's day? >> i did >> there was a brouhaha about linda yaccarino and the move i know linda i disagree with the twitter-verse. i have been to davos before. i don't think she is part of the weird and crazy group. people in twitter-land that seem to be upset about her background which made no sense to me. >> they're wrong that group that you're talking about and i'm not a member of any group. the group you are talking about that are wondering and disappointed, they will not be

>> linda yaccarino is one-of-a-kind. the truth is she is a great operator and great at creating revenue and the advertising community loves her. that is the entire point if you have elon on one side working on technology piece of it and the engineering side and you have her as the operator and dealing with the advertising side and revenue side, that's exactly what he needs. >> the things that have sort of ostracized elon from the people who previously loved him, the cont contingent on that woke, they are equal. >> the other pieces that linda has managed to straddle the the other side of the world and is considering -- >> she has to at nbc >> she cares about selling

advertising. you care about brand safety and all this stuff the question is and she will be able to thread the needle. i'm all-in on linda yaccarino. she will help him figure this out. just saying. >> we know her i've whispered to her at parties. we whispered to each other at parties. >> you keep that to yourself >> i won't tell you what we whispered about. she is not what these people are making her out to be when we come back, activist battle at shake shack. details after the break. later, interviews with two fed presidents bostic and goolsbee. "squawk box" will rhtac beig bk. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure lily! welcome to our third bark-ery.

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activist investor engaged capital is running a proxy fight for three board seats at shake

shack. a report shows engaged has a 6% stake in the chain the stock has been cut from the high in 2021 after rallying more than 50% this year engaged has determined ways to double the shake shack profitability within two years the stock is up 3.8%. vice media officially filing for bankruptcy after the plan to the sale of lenders. a an -- a long and sad story for vice >> and buzzfeed. >> streaming no, no streaming no cable legacy media no no new media where is it? it is not a zero sum they are making money. >> the vice problem was over

raising. they raised too much money and spent too much money >> not the only one. how many >> there were a bunch where that was the fundamental problem. crazy valuation and raising money and trying to spend like a drunken sailor for a while, it was working because of the special sauce thing going on the question was the repeatable process. >> with vice, what is the most successful is there an uber successful? >> i don't know if it is uber successful, but not failing. the vox people have done and the politi politico it got a good valuation in terms of media company emerged in the last decade or more now. more than that now >> insider

>> insider of course. that went to axios that is a great example of transforming itself. coming up, debt threat the latest on the standoff in washington and the odds of the bargain to avoid a u.s. default. that's next. and later, we get you ready for the retail earnings week "squawk box" will be right back. . well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times area. you will see green arrows. dow up 121 s&p continuing to build on gains. up 16.5. nasdaq indicated up 40 points. andrew. president biden expected to meet with congressional leaders tomorrow for another round of debt negotiations. we have two congress members with us. >> good morning. >> good to see you senator gregg, curious where this could potentially land. i know we will have a meeting or think we will have a meeting who will give this time around >> they both have to give.

unfortunately, you have a grumpy old man going up genagainst a g who has nothing to lose. if we go to default, the damage is enormous to both sides. at some point, they have to reach understanding. there are a lot of places for understanding. caps have historically always been in place to try to discipline discretionary spending recovering the unspent money on covid is reasonable. some regulatory reform that manchin wants is reasonable. a number of places to save face. the usuaissue is do they have t strength to do that? my guess is preservation rules and they come to agreement we are in more dangerous ground than i have seen and i was there in 2011 when we almost defaulted. >> congress member, where do you think could be a compromise? >> judd was great in the senate

and i miss you, not that i'm in congress either. >> thank you let me reciprocate >> the market has not pancaked we will go to the brink again and back off the list that judd gave you is right. i also think that the secret weapon is mitch mcconnell. he is a institutionalist he will not let this happen. mccarthy has no room to move that is exactly right. there is rumbling in his caucus. i hear they are not happy with him. i think tomorrow is at least a short-term extension that is the wimpy answer hopefully it is a list of things that judd laid out that they can agree to and the way it will be played is a clean extension, plus a budget deal it is not a combo. then both sides can take credit. >> that's how you think it gets done i don't think there will be a compromise within the context

that you used the word clean which is something president biden would like to see. will he compromise on that >> what does it mean it is semantics. they agreed the debt limit will be extended to x time. my wish list is after the presidential election. forget that. there will be a budget deal. that is what there should be those don't have to be connected. it is silly we have this russian roulette so often. let's point out that the democrats agreed three times in the trump administration to what was standing now >> congress member, there was a permitting deal, too i don't know if that will cut it >> no, no, no. >> i'm sorry i misunderstood. there will be a budget deal. judd gregg laid out what should be in it and rapid permitting

for fossil and clean energy. i think that could be on the table. i think he will try to work on that. >> you talked about the possibility of kicking the can down the road a little bit to deal with this ahead of the presidential election. what are the chances that happens, senator gregg >> i think any agreement is going to go into some time next year probably not past the election certainly not past the elections. if they get a long-term agreement on caps, that could take less pressure off the issues next year jane is right. let me second her thoughts here. she was an exceptional senator and great force for thoughtful activity in international an reason p-- arena the congress misses here a great deal on this issue, mcconnell said there will be no default

when mcconnell makes a definitive statement like that, i believe him. i suspect something will happen. i don't think mcconnell will step in because he wants mccarthy to get credit >> senator, to the point that the congress member hawas making and the vix and volatility in the market and it sounds like this deal gets done and earlier you said it was the worst you have seen it >> it is the worst i have ever seen it. the collapse potential is there because neither side has the force to bring their members to what they want to do if a president steps away from the clean debt ceiling, he undermines his presidency. i don't think he does, but he thinks that way. obviously, mccarthy has very little room to move. that has locked us into the path

of brinksmanship which is more severe than i have seen. however, in the end, default is in come pre-he-- incomprehensib. i don't think you will need a short-term agreement i don't think you will see a one-week extension of the debt ceiling. that would be a heavy lift for mccarthy to get across the house floor. i think there will be comprehensive agreement here and it will be done this week. >> congress member, you talked about the markets getting crazy and if you need the markets to g go crazy do you need the markets tell washington what to do. >> -- do >> i was reading the indications and i believe the markets would

have a big influence on this if the markets started to go crazy. i think judd and i totally agree. i don't know what happens to kevin mccarthy he made a deal with the devil. they are holding him to it he has absolutely no room. in the end, it is mcconnell to save the republican party, sorry, judd, your party is on life support at the moment i do think if you package it and that is how biden will do it as a clean extension and agreement on a longer term and more responsible budget deal. let's understand we should reduce the huge deficit that has been growing over many presidencies and biden wants to do that or says he does. i think permitting is a good idea if it has clean energy in it and other things. i think it is there. the deal is there to make and will they seize it not easily because they never

miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity in this congress. >> fair enough i want to thank both of you. >> what the markets will say and if there is a default, it happens on a thursday. i wrote t.a.r.p. and the markets dropped radically. i think you end up with a weekend event. that will be damaging to the credit credibility of the country, but it will be brief this is an inexcusable act of the lack of leadership >> we hope we don't get there. we have to thank both of you we will talk to you and i hope we don't have to talk about this topic. talk to you soon >> thanks. coming up, turmoil in turkey the presidential election appears to head for a runoff details are next. in the next hour, don't miss

our interview with atlanta fed president bostic you can get the latest on "squawk pod" on your foravite podcast app and listen any time. we'll be right back.

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turkey's presidential election may be heading to an unprecedented runoff as of this morning, neither the 20-year incumbent, recep tayyip erdogan or his challenger has secured enough votes to win outright if no one gets 50%, it will go to a runoff held in the next

couple weeks the state run news agency said erdogan had 49.8% of the vote and the challenger had 45% it all adds up >> erdogan has been there 20 years. >> yeah. >> it is a pretty important position because it sits between united nations and also negotiating with russia and china on the other side of things, too. >> crazy story when we come back, we get ready for a busy week of retail earnings, including home depot and target and walmart that's next. reminder, you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app when the davises booked their vrbo vacation home, they didn't know about this view. or the 200-year-old tree in the backyard. or their neighbors down the hill. but one thing they did know is exactly how much they'd pay.

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on this week's earnings agenda, we've got the retailers, home depot tjx companies, target and walmart are set to report

results. joining me now is jpmorgan retail analyst chris horgers thanks for being here. you said you wouldn't be surprised if target mixed expectations you think walmart will beat expectations what's the breakdown what's going on? what makes you think that? >> basically a couple of things. a lot of inflation in food right now, there's duouble-digit -- >> chris, one second, i think the mic's not working. as we mentioned, you're looking at charts with target, walmart, amazon, lowes and best buy all on the list. go ahead, let's try that again. >> can you hear? >> nope. give it a try now, chris. >> good? >> yeah. >> so what's going on is food outspending and the other part of the consumer's wallet food inflation is running in the low double-digits. that's causing consumers to stop

buying goods there's the covid hangover effect find everything, every good we then spend on travel and leisure. dollars are shifting to leisure spending and then dollars are being prioritized in the good side on the food side. walmart has a higher mix of food target has a higher mix of goods. and at the same time the consumer is trading down so that mid to high income consumer is trading down into walmart. they're trying to find the cheapest food out there. >> you think walmart will raise their guidance for the full year or no? >> i don't it's going to be interesting our view is the consumer is slowing down right now >> is slowing down >> is slowing down you're seeing it across all parts of the wallet, not just food, leisure spending, cosmetics trends slow as we get further into the reopen. for walmart, i think you're going to hear them talk about the consumer, particularly the low end. using more credit to fund

purchases, that's going to cause them to want to be very cautious in terms of their outlook. >> one thing they've seen is a drop in consumer spending, it's the first time that's happened in a few years on the monthly numbers for april. the way they looked at it, it was high end earners that were really feeling the pinch the most they had seen a drop in things like bonuses that were being paid and also had seen more help coming in in terms of unemployment that they had a 40% increase that upper echelon, 40% increase in unemployment because that's where the layoffs are happening too. does that match your thesis with what you're seeing it almost sounds like you think the lower end of the spectrum is get squeezed a little more. >> i think it's happening in both the mid to high end you started to see the trade down at walmart late last year, trying to find the cheapest food option now what i think the low end is starting to show -- wage growth is very high for the low end

if you look at, for example, the chase credit card data we examined, you're seeing spending in every category, so even like restaurant spending relative to 19, makeup spending relative to '19 and i think the low end while wage growth is still very high, it's actually moderating down it's simply the fact that the low end spends more of their wallet on food that's a need-based item that's going to be a little firmer. >> having said all of that, you think walmart is going to be the beneficiary. you have a neutral rating on walmart and overweight on target why? is it just pricing >> our thesis is if you look out six to nine months, that food budget is going to go from low to double-digit. by the fourth quarter we project it to be about 2%. it's fine now. i understand why people like it

right now. we look out six to nine months, it's a different situation and target our view is that the negative earnings revision cycle is going to start to hit the bottom it's absolutely being pushed out right now. we have to look a little bit forward. we think we're closer to the bottom on margins. once you get to a point where you can have the fed easing, target's the stock you want to own because it's more cyclical >> you are concerned that home depot might also miss estimates as well. why is that? >> i think there's two things happening there. you still have the covid hangover, we're all stuck in our backyard buying fire puts and whatnot a few years ago. the lagged effect of the fed on housing is causing pricing to moderate, turnover's still negative, and then the last piece is i think what's going to be very different about this home depot report is they're going to talk about the remodel spend starting to slow down. that is what you talked about the, becky with the mid to high

end consumer starting to dial back that discretionary spending. >> i want a fire pit now >> you can get a good sale on a fire pit >> now it's finally happening? >> yes, nice new solo stove. >> chris, thanks for coming? >> i want to make sure, i've been waiting for the sales to start for three years. >> don't want you to do that on your balcony next to that electric grill. >> hibachi does it matter with tofu burgers. >> you can't grill the kale. >> some people do. >> don't do a fire pit on your balcony. >> thanks. >> it's a funny joke coming up, a big lineup for the next two hours ahead, interviews with atlanta oes ra rafa rafael bostic, and paul tudor

right here "squawk box" coming back right after this

good morning, welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kern k.

we're in the green despite concerns and maybe not concerns about the debt ceiling and whether we're going to come up to 1159 in how many seconds. dow up 129 points. nasdaq up 38 points. the s&p 500 up about 17 points take a look at treasuries as well if you flip the board around, the ten-year at 3.481. the two-year 4.002 the energy complex, wti crude, you can buy it by the barrel, it will cost 70.26 and crypto risk on, risk off, we're now down to $27,427. >> back up. >> a little bit back up. >> staying in the low 26s. >> got to 25 and change. >> 25 and change, but then was up at 30 >> it got close to it. it's been like 29 and change and then coinbase or buy inance

it's also a liquidity gauge sometimes when you got pac west, you would think it might help bitcoin, but people need money from somewhere sometimes let's get to dom chu he's got a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> joe, becky, andrew, big merger monday, especially in km commodities related injuries newmont buying newcrest mining in a cash and stock deal the deal will make newmont the world's biggest producer of gold newmont corporation up 1/4 of a percent. newcrest mining australia up about 1.5% in those trading sessions in natural gas and pipelines, oneok is going to buy magellan in a $19 billion cash and stock deal both these companies based out in oklahoma. oneok done about 5.5%.

magellan midstream up 8.5% and end with an analyst call on shares of charles schwab raymond james is upgrading to an outperform rating. they cited amongst other things that client activity and moving cash between certain tieypes of accounts and asset classes, other institutions appears to be tapering off that cash sorting it could support profit margin and net interest margin stabilization in the coming months those charles schwab shares up about 1.75% in the premarket i'll send things back over to you. thank you very much. debt ceiling meetings expected to continue this week in washington kayla tausche joins us with more at this point. kayla, what are you hearing? >> becky, president biden is expected to bring top congressional leaders back to the white house on tuesday to discuss the last week of negotiations among staff, which worked through the weekend on key issues to try to bridge the

gaps between the two sides the president asked over the weekend in delaware if there was a deal he said he was optimistic. >> i remain optimistic because i'm an optimist. i really think the desire on their part as well as ours to reach an agreement, i think we'll be able to do it >> now the two sides have been discussing four policy areas put forth by republicans, but they're still far apart on several of them. republicans want a ten-year cap on government spending democrats want two according to sources, and as for work requirements for those receiving government aid, well, biden said he was still waiting to see the republicans' proposal and that he thinks that introducing those requirements for medicaid specifically would be too tricky the clock is ticking the president leaves wednesday morning for a ten-day trip to asia, and the senate is planning to leave thursday until after memorial day treasury deputy secretary wally adeyemo asked on cnn about the need to reach a deal this week,

did not respond to the question about whether there was a deadline treasury secretary janet yellen is slated to meet with top bank ceos in washington it's part of the bank policy subs institute's annual meeting she may have a darker warning about the consequences that await and potentially, becky, a new deadline for that x date >> wow >> it seems frivolous and trivial, kayla, but sometimes like a memorial day break can force people to -- does it really come down to that, both sides can be dug in on policy, but that looming time when they'd be leaving washington can actually sometimes make people -- i don't know, they smell the stables and they want to go, right and they get it done it seems -- it seems crazy that that could be a deciding factor or a motivating factor, but it's just -- they're people too and they probably want to leave

washington, be with their family >> possibly, but it also, joe, depends on just how much remains to be decided at that point. i mean, i think speaker mccarthy said last week, well, he'd feel really good about where negotiations were if, you know, they had begun those negotiations and had ten-plus hours behind closed doors if this were february given that it's just a matter of weeks before the june 1st x date, you know, he wasn't feeling entirely optimistic that they'd be able to actually go through just the level of detail that would need to be gone through to reach a sort of deal by the end of this month as we've reported since earlier in the month, you know, there is always this last resort option that if they feel like they're close to a deal and they get down to the 11th hour, then there is the possibility of both sides potentially agreeing to do a short-term extension possibly through the summer, giving them several months to reach that agreement in tandem with the end of year spending deadline september 30th of course that would introduce new deadlines, new tricky

considerations for both sides, so we'll see what the next couple of weeks bring. >> the weather's supposed to be nice, i think they'd, you know -- they need to get this done kidding. >> but you don't want to get into park shutdowns and things like we've seen in the past. >> no. you want to do it before -- they should get something settled this week. >> that would be nice, but i share judd greg's concern that they're not going to do it until the market forces them to do it. kayla, thank you kayla tausche. coming up on the other side of this, atlanta fed president rafael bostic is going to join us steve liesman will be live with him. that interview just up in a couple of minutes. plus, billionaire investor paul tudor jones joins us later in the show. a quick business headline, fa gnattic fanatics agreeing to can acquire

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our next guest says see some positive reading the tea leaves, positive thicngs for apple, s&p 500. he says the s&p could surpass 4,600. this is another 12 had% from the levels joining us now to explain, craig johnson, chief market technician at piper s craig, are you mostly looking at chart patterns or other metrics that technicians use >> thanks for having me on, joe, we're looking at a lot of different things primarily we're looking at the charts we're looking at what the trends are ultimately telling us, and to your question about the s&p 500, you know, it's really interesting. there's a lot of negativity out there. i was listening to the program this morning, lots of negativity we hear that day in, day out when you look at the very simple charts you've seen a down trend

reversal in the dow. you're seeing the nasdaq more than 20% off of its lows, and you're also seeing that these popular averages, you've got golden crossovers. 50-day moving averages the trend is higher and the pain trade talking to institutions is car clearly higher at this point in time, joe. >> yeah, 4,200 has been a tough place to get through for the s&p, and it's -- has it tried enough times has it been long enough? how does it improve technically to get you to think that it could finally move through this time >> joe, that 4,200 level as a friend of mine would say looks like a rusty door at this point in time. we've knocked on it two, three times. i think at this point in time, the fact that we're through earnings season and you have seen very good results out of earnings, better than most people expected, huge negative psychology and about $4.7 trillion sitting in cash on the sidelines, i think when you

finally break above this 4,200 level, i think you're going to see this market moving quickly to the upside. i think we have seen enough attempts at it to finally push through it nobody's bullish at this point in time. >> it doesn't concern you that apple's been such a big part of the advance in the s&p. >> it's not only been apple, but it's been really microsoft, apple, meta, you know, those names out there at this point in time. >> narrow, though, right is that okay >> yeah, i'd like to see the mark breadth widen out a bit, but at this point in time those are such big parts of the index, that they continue to be sort of almost like the nifty 50 stocks at this point in time, and they continue to be among the most profitable companies out there, they're also trending very well. technically they've all reversed down trends, and they all appear to be working. >> bitcoin you think has some upside before the end of the year, back above 30 to 32,000.

has it been acting -- did it bottom before stocks >> it's more in line work incidental than anything else. we think the lows for the market were made back in that october time frame if you look at bitcoin itself, we've had a great down trend reversal just like most of the popular averages we're back above very simple moving averages at this point in time, and when you put a very nice little simple channel on it, joe, it looks like to us that we're just sort of chopping around in that channel you're actually continuing to grind higher i would say at minimum 32,000 is what i think you would have for bitcoin. >> i wonder if she thought as a stock market technician you'd ever be, you know, applying your skills to crypto i guess you need to. it's been long enough, you don't feel -- you don't feel like you're trying to analyze pet rocks or -- what are those

things beanie babies or something like? >> cabbage patch kids. >> you don't do charts on beanie babies, do you >> i don't think there's anything there to chart, joe, but in terms of crypto itself, price, anything out there with price, we can do charts on we can do it on commodities, currencies, on crypto. as long as we can identify a trend, we'll do it >> very good all right, craig, from piper sandler, good to have you on, thanks. >> thank you, joe. >> okay. still to come this morning, atlanta fed president rafael bostic talks inflation, the economy, and where the fed stands on rates. we've got his comments in just a few minutes. a hearing scheduled tomorrow on the hill to talk about ethical concerns regarding ai and ethics open ai's sam altman will be testifying we'll speak to the former white house chief technology officer anish chopra just a bit

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ar . get you caught up on some stories making headlines this morning, activist investor

engage capital planning to run a proxy fight for three board seats at shake shack, that's according to "the wall street journal. that report saying that engaged has a roughly 6.6% stake in the restaurant chain european union regulators are set to make a decision on microsoft's billion dollars takeover of activision blizzard as early as today. the anticipate move comes weeks after the uk's watchdog move to block the record breaking gaming merger. and google launching tools to identify artificially created and misleading images, that's according to bloomberg, ai generated content will be labeled as such in a bid to reduce the potential spread of mismani misinformation when we return, we're going to talk upfront, new ceo on the world of streaming, "squawk box comes back after this.

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a beautiful live shot o capitol this morning maybe a live shot of the hollywood sign right about now the new ceo of twitter tweeting for the first time over the weekend since elon musk named her to that job friday she commented on having a bunch of new followers and said she's committed to the future of the platform and that user feedback is vital to that future. yaccarino joins twitter from her job as head of global advertising at nbc universal joining us right now with more on the upfront season, the writer strike and more is matt bel bellamy. i'll start with the yaccarino news how important is it and how does it change the game for twitter and does it have an impact on nbc universal? >> first for twitter, i think

it's very consequential here i mean, the whole problem that elon musk has had is that brands don't want to work with twitter, and here you have coming in as ceo someone who he has some of the best relationships with advertisers in the world the problem she has is that for the past 14 years she's been evangelizing the fact that the social media companies are not where you want to put your advertising because they're not safe for these blue chip brands. nbc universal is safe. now she's got to make the opposite argument, that you should come to twitter and advertise there because why? she's got to explain that. >> right impact on nbcu >> you know, they have mark lazarus there now running, you know, for the upfront. it's not a great look going into key advertiser meetings this week ultimately, though, long-term

nbc universal has a pretty good executive roster they can probably fill that void, but it's not a great look this week. >> where do we land on the writer strike. you also wrote about the potential for a director's strike and how that could impact all of this coming >> well, right now the writers and the director -- the writers in the studios aren't even talking. we're going to go into at least july, i think, on this, but the studios have moved on to the directors, and if they can make a deal with the directors in the next couple of weeks, that will signal that there's at least a path to go back to the writers and say, okay, look, we have a deal, it's a template here not all the issues will be resolved, but it's at least a starting point, and that could be something better than we have right now at least >> how much of that, though, i mean, is there any chance that the directors try to step in almost to help the writers or do you think they're going to act completely independently >> you know, they have this weird symbiotic relationship where obviously they want to be in solidarity with the writers,

but they have their own issues and in the past, the directors have done their own thing and in the 2008 strike were actually credited with making a deal and putting pressure on the writers to put -- to make their own deal it's a very different situation now. the writers have their own very specific issues with the kind of future of the medium and how writers play into it so a deal with the directors doesn't necessarily mean that the writers are going to fall in line here, but it would help >> and then finally, let's talk disney and hulu, you also wrote about that this morning. >> yeah, it's an interesting situation here because bob iger has sort of seemingly had an about-face here where he was questioning the value of this adult-oriented entertainment on hulu as late as february now he's sort of come around and said we think we can buy out comcast interest in hulu next year and make this into a

meaningful combination with disney plus. it seems like he's sort of been backed into this it's a $9 billion purchase that he's going to have to make to buy out a third of that comcast interest it's not coming at a great time for disney they are trying to cut costs they're trying to reduce streaming costs, and they've got this kind of big purchase they are likely going to have to make so he's sort of making the best of a difficult situation. >> but matt, one of the things i didn't understand was just last week he effectively said that they were going to try to better integrate hulu into disney plus, if that's the case -- do you actually need hulu >> they want a combo platter where they're going to put hulu inside disney plus the they think the value of bundling there is significant, and the friction that comes with having to exit one app, go to another app, they can reduce that, and ultimately hulu's a great advertising business disney plus, they want to be a much better advertising business, and maybe that can

help lift all votes here we'll see. >> matt, it's a longer conversation come on back i want to talk about when bob said -- he said to david faber he didn't really love the hulu business i was actually wondering whether he was trying to talk down the value of the hulu business. >> that was negotiating on air it was hilarious in part because there's going to be this valuation issue that's going to come to the fore probably later this fall thanks still to come this morning, don't miss our interview with atlanta fed president rafael bostic that's next. plus, in the next hour we'll be hearing from chicago fed president austan goolsbee. it's the first time we're talking to him since he's come to that position and billionaire investor paul tudor jones. a lot more to come this morning. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech.

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all the fed heads or some of the fed heads are meeting at the atlanta fed markets conference today. steve liesman, if they're meeting there he's going to be there. he joins us with a very special guest. good morning, stooech. >> amelia island, the place you're kind of familiar with, right? >> it's right nearby, just south exactly. >> right nearby. one of your favorite places. i am here with atlanta fed president rafael bostic our host for today and for the conference here let me start off with i think -- i think we know where you are on rates. what do you think about where

the market is? when you look at where the market is priced for the year end, it's a 440, 439 what you call it january fed funds contract, which tells you what they think for the full year that's 75 basis point difference is that worrisome now what explains it? >> first of all, good morning, it's good to have you here, steve. always good to have you at our conference i've been really wondering about this for a long time because you know, in my world inflation is not going to come down very quickly, and in that regard, then cutting rates doesn't really fit into that scenario. so you know, the markets i think have been pretty optimistic about how easily inflation responds to our policy honestly, i hope i'm wrong and they're right because that will mean that the economy's in balance sooner than later, but it's not my baseline case at all. >> what accounts for the disconnect do you think? >> you know, that's a good question i try not to speak for the markets. what i would say is even in my

billion building there's a lot of debate about how strongly our policy is going to bite on the economy some thing is going to bite very strong and come down fairly rapidly. my baseline case is we won't really be thinking about cutting until well into 2024 i think what we're going to see is an orderly decline. i'm hoping we're going to see where inflation has come from a very high level to a high level, but even if you look at most measures of inflation, they're still two times where our target is there's a long distance still to go. >> okay. so that's the kind of downside debate on rates. 5 1/8, is it >> you did ask me if i had a bias between going up and going down as our next action, i would say we might have to go up what we've seen is that inflation has been persistently high consumers have been really resilient in terms of their spending and labor markets

remain extremely tight all of those suggest there's still going to be upward pressure on prices again, that's not my base case either for about six months now in the dot plot, this is the level i want us to get to, and now we can wait and see, but if there's going to be a bias to action, for me it would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to a cut. >> mr. president, you have not had zero response from unemployment in your rates, you've had negative response does that tell you you have to lean harder on this economy to get a better response in the job market to have looser employment conditions and reduce the pressure from wages on inflation? >> i wouldn't say we're negative when i talk to business leaders and i go around talking to lots of folks, they all tell me the labor market is easier for them today than it was 12 months ago, and suggests there is some easing happening in the labor market it's not happening super fast. we still have a lot of dynamics in the pandemic that are

affecting labor force participation segments of the economy. i do think there's been progress. >> what about on inflation, has there been progress? >> there's definitely been progress on inflation. for me i think we've done -- if you think about this, the easiest part of inflation reduction now is going to take some time to work through the service, goods are going to still stay somewhat volatilie. when you look at the cpi report that came out last week, less than 50% of the items in the basket now are showing 5% increase or less >> it was only a tenth, there wasn't much progress at all. >> there's a lot of math that goes into the calculation of these things i think in the next several months, the math is going to work in our favor, and the economy's going to work in our favor, and this is really important. >> thanks very much. rafael, there was a piece, a really interesting piece by greg ip in "the wall street journal" last week. i'm sure you saw it. he suggested that these levels of inflation while they're down, they're still pretty elevated

and his concern is that as consumers and businesses get used to that higher inflation, 4.5, 5%, that's where you get into a problem businesses can then continue to raise prices, consumers are kind of used to that. that's when things get a little more concerning. do you share that concern? >> of course i mean, if inflation expectations really become unanchored from the levels that we want it to be, then everyone's behavior changes and it can almost be a self-fulfilling prophesy as we do our surveying of businesses and my conversations with bankers and just regular families, they all tell me that they understand this is a very short run episode. they're not expecting the long-term reality to be at this level. there's still a lot of confidence that our policies are going to be able to get inflation back down to our 2% target and to be fully clear we're going to do all that we need to to make sure that that

happens. >> so president bostic, if you thought we were going to be here and this was a good target for a while and now we got here and you still think we might need to go a little bit more, if you got that -- what happened in the financial sector, which everyone says added 50 or 100 basis points worth of tightening, why aren't you taking that into -- why didn't that make you think we're there already. if you're already at 5, 5 1/4, and we get another 50 or 75 or even 100 from that, why don't you say, wait, i didn't know that was happening this makes me change that maybe we don't need to go as far >> i'd say two things on this. so first, i don't really do that calculating like how much bank action translates into fed funds rates. i think there's a lot of -- there are a lot of implicit assumptions there that makes that a really difficult exercise when we raised rates, my expectation were that financial

conditions were going to tighten. the crisis did that on some level. i would hope that financial conditions tightened in a somewhat more orderly fashion, but we're seeing the tightening that needed to happen, and now the question is how much is that really going to bind on activity in my baseline case, i think it will continue to slow down the economy, but it's not going to be in big chunks i think this is going to be a gradual thing over an extended period of time that's why i think we're going to -- appropriate policy is really just to wait and see how much the economy slows from the policy that we've done. >> let me follow up on that directly can you talk about the banks in your area. are you hearing that they are request going to be cutting back also the ones you are looking at, you see reasons for concerns that we could have other issues of banks going into receivership >> as you might imagine, i've talked to a lot of bankers what they've told me is they feel like their capital position

is solid they feel like they've got a lot of position and their risk is low and the thing that's been really gratifying for me is that their depositors have not been distressed they've stayed solid, they understand how banking is playing out, and they're comfortable with their institutions but because there's now a lot of uncertainty in the economy, what all bankers are telling me now is we're going to be a little more conservative. we're going to hold some capital because liquidity constraints can come up at any point, and so we're going to see less lending over the next several months as -- >> can we feel confident that the federal reserve right now is looking more carefully at interest rate risk on the books of banks >> yes, you can definitely say that one thing i've done in my district is i've said make sure you're looking at any risk wherever it appears, however it presents itself, and i'll just say i'm glad to say in my district we're not seeing those

risks. there's still uncertainty, and the thing i would emphasize i try to tell our folks, all of this has happened without credit risk, so if that rises, then we might have more concerns i'm not seeing that right now. >> one thing that might explain the difference between the market and the fed is the outlook for recession. i know that's not your base case, but talk about how much concern and risk is out there when it comes to the economy falling into recession >> there is some risk of this. we are in a very difficult environment. there's a lot of things happening that we really didn't expect but if we falter a session, i think it's not going to be very long, and i think it's not going to be very deep. my base case is that's not what we're going to see i think there's still a lot of momentum, and i think we can get inflation down without there being a lot of pain for america households. >> would you cut if there were a recession? >> probably not. to me inflation is job number one. we've got to get that to our

target if there's going to be some cost to that, we've got to be able to do that. look,inflation today or unemployment today is at historic levels. it's at 3.4%, right? so some retractment from that, pulling back from that will still be a very strong conomy, and that's something i think everyone needs to understand you know, we have seen extremely resilient u.s. economy through this pandemic, and even with some weakness, we'll be in a very strong position >> okay, rafael bostic, atlanta fed president from the atlanta fed conference andrew, back to you, we have au austan goolsbee the chicago fed president coming up at 8:30. >> that would be president austan goolsbee to you, steve. >> yep. coming up, the state of the real estate market and the home buyer, with the spring selling season in full swing and then later legendary investor paul tudor jones is going to weigh in on everything we've been talking about all morning for an extended interview you can't afford to miss that's happening at 8:30 this

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that has been a pretty unusual spring season to say the least diana olick joins us with more on that front. diana, good morning. >> good morning, becky, and what better place to start than home prices, which have really been the most unusual after jumping over 40% nationally in the first two years of the pandemic, they began cooling off last summer due to sharply higher mortgage rates. they actually fell at the fastest pace on record now they appear to be rising yet again. why? roller coaster mortgage rates. the average on the 30-year fixed hit more than a dozen record lows in the first two years of the pandemic, and then more than doubled in just the first six months of last year before peaking last october in january, however, it fell back hard, and that brought buyers out heating up demand again, but supply is still critically low in fact, new listings were down 21% in april year-over-year, potential sellers don't want to give up their likely record low rates, so prices turn higher again, especially in markets

like las vegas where they fell the hardest. now, the price swings have had an impact on homeowner wealth, after two years of gaining record home equity, some of that melted away. the average mortgage holder had $185,000 in tapable equity that's when you leave 20% equity in the home. it's down from more than 210,000 early last year, but still $65,000 or 56% above the average pre-pandemic negative equity is still historically very low with just 1.1% of mortgage holders under water in march and allthat according to black night a very interesting spring to say the least, becky. >> dieana, thank you very much interesting spring, what are the expectations how will we know if things were normalizing? what should we be watching >> we should be watching demand, you know, and supply and coming back into the balance. we have been seeing that a little bit with the homebuilders still they're not building enough to meet demand.

what we need to see is more sellers come onto the market if we get that in the summer because buyers have kind of gotten used to this 6% mortgage rate range, if we get that more balanced market, then we get into as you say a more normal market right now with supplies still critically low, it's just wreaking havoc on the normal numbers we usually see >> diana, thanks, we'll see you later. coming up a hearing scheduled tomorrow on the hill to discuss ethical concerns regarding ai and ethics. we're going to speak to former white house chief technology officer aneesh chopra after the br break. futures up roughly 123 points on the dow. everything looks so good. right?!

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the senate judiciary subcommittee on privacy is hosting an ai hearing this week. open ai's ceo sam altman will be techk testifying and joining us now is aneesh chopra, the former chief technology officer at the white house and currently the president of care journey. i think we're all kind of going back and forth, the concerns

that have been raised by elon musk and others about maybe putting a freeze on things and slowing things down until we can lay out the rules of the road is one argument, but we know we can't stop everybody and that china and others are really working full speed ahead, so how do you come out of this debate what should we be doing right now? >> my view is every every ce or executive watching is putting a team together to figure out how this will help them advance their objectives, but we don't have a lot of confidence yet that the systems are trustworthy. so there's two choices we either wait for government action, which could take much longer than we would need it to given the pace of change or frankly we need to have more history self-regulation and to do so with greater speed i'm obviously calling for the latter and i hope in the hearing while there will be some general understanding about the promise and potential, it will be almost a call to action to get folks better organized than what we

saw in the last debate we don't have a choice if we're going to compete. >> what do you think are the most dangerous propositions and if you were to lay down bumpers on either side of the lane, where would they be? >> there are really think p th things are greatest concern. as these models become more advanced than we could imagine, there are agi-like systems that will move us to true artificial intelligence, that may take a decade, we need a public-private system, and for day-to-day developers that help you and me do our jobs, we might want to have more terms and conditions on what they can do. right now it feels like every startup by the minute is producing products and services and they're subject to no oversight, no transparency or disclosure of what they're doing.

tackle both end of the spectrum, disclosure and some accountability on the front tier startup level but the more serious audit work at the upper echelon. >> and i guess putting it in comparison with what you just did with social media, we still haven't got i don't know anygotten anything done on that. it's been 15 years how much hope is there >> the goldie locks analogy, you saw senator warner write a letter already to all the ceos saying i want you to give us a briefing on your trustworthiness and safety and privacy and mitt g mitigation steps we don't want to go as far as europe that has maybe a bit more

top-down view that may constrain some of the benefits here. we're going to look for that goldie locks and i'm confident they're going to do so and the meeting might be a bit more cooperative. >> and how do you know if the government is going to do something even harsher >> my presumption is he'll say a bit more of we need this collective action because this is far outpacing our understanding of what we can or cannot do. you might hear a bit more of the conciliatory tone welcoming either the invitation for us to work better together or where there is a bit more clarity as we bring this into the already regulated sectors of the economy in banking and health and education.

>> it complicated is not regulating the big guys, the large models that google is building but the complicated part is all the folks literally trying to build their own what might be described as smaller language models themselves using open source techniology and the like software. the question is how do you even begin to regulate that or can you or you just decide that that's impossible? >> well, one example would be back when cloud computing was an area that we wanted to bring into the obama administration, we created a bit of a procurement layer. so you can imagine for ceos watching the show, maybe the government may not regulate but we need to have some kind of standardized approach to buy products and services, whether they're open source space or from the larger models and we created a program that added more security and privacy. it may need that type of procurement best practices to make sure it mitigates the

harms. >> do you think could you do it at the infrastructure level, which is to say you can put the onus on the cloud computing providers so it on microsoft and it's on google cloud, it's on aws to effectively regulate the software that's running on their services we haven't gotten there yet. >> you want the core models themselves to be more explainable but you also want to have developers building on top of those platforms to be subject to some accountability that might be called ale terms conditions we might need to put more teeth on what developers have do to access the models. >> i want to thank you for the conversation, aneesh tomorrow the next episode of "special edition," i'll be

speaking with microsoft's ceo satya nadella and debates about whether artificial information is moving too fast after this, another big hour ahead. we're going to talk to chicago fed president austan goolsbee and paul tudor jones will join us to talk market, inflation and so much more "squawk box" returns after this. ♪ imagine, a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is spacious.

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good morning just over 90 minutes until the opening bell on wall street. the dow was down every day last week but this morning futures are in the green it's a key week in d.c and the treasury secretary will huddle with bank ceos. we'll talk about the debt ceiling, the economy and much more with two very special guests chicago fed president austan goolsbee and paul tudor jones. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now

good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew will be sitting down with paul tudor jones take a look at what's happening in the u.s. equities futures we picked up on the gains. dow up by 130, the nasdaq up by about 36 if you're watching treasury yields, we are still back above 4% for the 2-year, 4.0 % on the 10-year. right now we want to get more on the markets for the week ahead we want to get over to mike santoli. good morning >> good morning, becky we're in what has looked like if you take a look at the s&p 500 a

prolonged pause, really not far from the year-to-date highs, we did hit the highs on be in 2nd, kind of got there again in may we haven't typically tended to stay very long at the upper end of this range, except for right now. that looks like not a lot going on but what is actually happening is a ton is going on pulling in different directions, very, very large growth stocks are supporting the index, the nasdaq 100 up year to date, cyclicals are sagging. the economy is holding together better than you might imagine. you see they rallied in tandem in the last run to all-time highs but you still see the equal waited s&p outperforming nobody is talking a whole lot about how the large growth

stocks were get dting destroyed into the october lows. it's not necessarily sustainable for a long period of time to have a market rally with a relative handful of stocks work, but so far it's okay the economy is still kind of holding together when the fed pauses but before it typically gives a window for the equity markets to hold up okay and sentiment is very skeptical, not really buying into the idea that the indexes reflect what's happening and globally this is somewhat supportive of a more upbeat narrative. you see both japan and europe are outperforming the s&p 500 over the last year and japan especially sort of breaking out. it means that across the world it's not just five or seven big nasdaq stocks carrying the way you have a little confirmation from elsewhere in thele world. >> mike, thank you and let's bring in the chairman and ceo

i don't know if you're feeling more optimistic. we had a piper sandler technician on saying we'll get through 4200 and this is more than just a bear market rally only to retest the lows. >> i think technically certainly anything that happened, that could happen i think from a fundamental perspective to get really bullish from here, you have to be betting on things that never happened before. you'd have to be betting by the fed tightening by at least 500 basis points and you're not having a recession you'd have to bet on some sort of fiscal austerity not impacting the overall economy because the bill has come due. from my perspective, i'm still quite cautious on the economy and the markets. a lot of it comes down to the fact that as i said before, the bill has come down in terms of qe the fed may have stopped

tightening, i would say that's very likely, but the idea that the fed is going to start easing any time soon i think is very, very unlikely. as mike said, you have a window between the last tightening and the first easing after the first easing, the market tends to get tagged pretty good because of the lags involved in monetary policy. by the time the fed starts easing, you realize you're actually in a recession. so i'm still cautious that we're defensively positioned in the portfolios >> why is there an old saying you should buy right at the bottom of a recession? and how long would the recession be how do you time it because a lot of times that's a time when stock bottom, the recession is obvious to everyone >> that's true and i would say, joe, there's no sense that we're in recession right now. there's never been a bear market which bottomed before the

recession. and that's likely -- people who are bullish right now, they're saying that market bottomed in october and now people are looking to 2024. i'm saying i don't really see it that way in every instance the market bottoms after the recession starts i don't think we've quite started yet. there are cracks showing the last man standing is labor and the employment picture claims are starting to move up but the unemployment rate is 3.4% there's still a shortage of labor. so it's hard to get a recession when you have the employment at this level but i think as corporate profits continue to roll over, i think you're going to see higher unemployment >> and we need to go below the october lows or we could revisit them and that could be the bottom >> i think you could revisit them and that could be the bottom we're using $200 for s&p operating earnings this year

if you put a 16, 17 multiple on that, that's around where we were in october. but i just think right now at 4,200, you're betting on something that's never happened before, which is that investors look for a recession and i get that question all the time this is the most anticipated recession of all time. why wouldn't invest loors look through it or based on my experience, once the bullets start flying, you start to get negative economic news, people are not quite as willing. you start to wonder -- >> what if there isn't a recession? >> it's possible, joe. the only time i think we didn't get a recession when the fed tightened this much was 1994 i would say this is very different than 1994. that was kind of the immaculate tightening, if you will. they didn't tighten as much as

they're tightening now and i would say inflation is still an issue. inflation is still two to two and a half times what the fed wants it to be, even if they say it's okay at 3, which i think they'll do if they actually pushed it to two, they would probably be a committee of congress or something at that point. i think they're going no continue to stay tight for a while. >> let's just talk about something else that's never happened, defaulting on the nation's debt. do you think it's fair to look through that to say it may be messy but they'll resolve it >> i think that's fair to look through because we've -- everyone knows this, you probably know the statistics off the top of your head we've raised the debt ceiling 120 sometimes or something over the last hundred years our view that's a little bit different, the problems in terms of the liquidity coming out of the market happen after the debt ceiling is raised. you've seen the treasury's general account has been drawn

down very dramatically as we hit the debt ceiling in many ways the federal government has been providing liquidity to the market. at a certain point that treasury account has to be refilled and that will happen after the debt ceiling rises. so that's why the most non-consensus view that we have, the irony is that this is actually an okay time and the second hatch of the year when the pressurery has to refill their savings account, that's when the market and the economy could be more at risk. >> it's a strange thing, the debt ceiling, isn't it if, number one, if you're not going to -- when you're getting ready to raise the debt limit, you're not going to say, would you, we're hitting the ceiling, we're spending a lot, let's talk about this if you just raise it every time, why have it? just get rid of it if you are going to have it,

it's time to take a step back, say here we are again. otherwise why even have it >> joe, i'm with you completely. >> for them to say this is unheard of, we already spent this stuff, we got to pay it well, then why have it just keep spending >> the other thing that's changed and i feel very strongly about this is we're at $31 trillion the fed has been subsidizing >> they're like a bank >> right the interest on our debt is about to explode unless the fed starts buying treasuries again if inflation is to high, they can't could that the interest expense on the debt will cause the deficit and the debt to explode over the next couple of years. obviously i'm somewhat partisan but i think the republicans i think are making a good faith effort to say you can't do this, this is not sustainable. at a certain point the bill will

come due you can't keep relying on the kindness of strangers or the fed to bail you out. >> if you love your social programs, if you love them and all of a sudden the debt is taking -- there's no discretionary spending left, if everything is spent on debt, then your future social programs so even if you love session programs -- >> of course 60% is indexed to inflation. 66 million people in the country that get social security the cost of living adjustment is 80%. the federal reserve is fighting the government to bring inflation down you're trying to get it to 2 and you have 20% of your population that's getting a 9% pay increase >> which is part of the reason it's so hard to bring it down. >> precisely and part of the reason why once it gets entrenched, it's very hard to get out.

so i -- sorry to sound so negative here. if there's going to be a recession, if we're correct, i'd rather have it sooner rather than later because we could at least make some adjustments. the no landing scenario, joe, that you're pointing out, the no landing is that you land into the side of a mountain it's really bad later on of course you can't choose these things but i think it makes some sense to actually try to deal with these things head on. >> all right >> i lost my button. >> i was going to ask you, where's the rolie. i watch you closely. that's a nice one. >> this is a hamilton. nothing fancy. >> that's a hamilton that's nice. >> yeah, it's nice >> so you wear more than one >> i wear more than one. >> just depends on the mood. >> depends on the mood >> and the button popping i got

fixed. >> i told becky we think we should wear goggles when you come on. >> no, no. >> have you thought about wearing goggles? >> no, not really. jason, thanks for being here >> thanks for having me. i appreciate it. >> when we come back, a pair of can't miss interviews. we got chicago fed president austan gools beand paul tudor jones. to treat my sleep apnea, i'm sleeping much better. in fact, it's making me think of doing other things i've been putting off. like removing that tattoo of your first wife's name. but your mom's name is vicky too! that's even worse. ( ♪♪ ) inspire. sleep apnea innovation. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪

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(narrator) invest in. believe in. move in. grow in. build in. thrive in. all in north carolina. ranked america's top state for business. media companies are pitching advertisers this week. a big thread underlying these up-front presentations would be the departure from our parent company becoming the company's ceo at twitter joining us is rich greenfield. he joins us from light shed partners this is a pretty different up-front season than we were dealing with a year ago. >> this is really different. i think the big change if you think about what's changed over the past 12 months is you've seen a dramatic increase in the

amount of streaming companies jumping into advertising netflix is a real player now and netflix was not doing a advertising a year ago they were talking about launching it but now it actually exists and there are subscribers and ads and disney plus has ads. we've seen a pretty big change in the marketplace in terms of the threat to linear advertising than a year ago. >> i would argue the other difference is more concern about advertising spend as there are more concerns about the economy and then throw the writers strike on top of that. >> i mean, the writers strike adds a major element for all scripted programming we think this is going to be a strike that lasts at least until labor day. i think some people think it might even go longer from that standpoint, you're looking at something that's going to have a meaningful impact on any form of scripted series that you would see on broadcast or cable television come the fall, and it's

really -- you're going to see a lot of consumers relying on the streamers, which have bat loads -- they basically have lots of shows. netflix usually work as year ahead. there will be a lot of content coming out over the next 12 months but you'll see more on streaming than on linear tv for sure >> who are the winners and losers or are there any winners this time around >> i think the winners if you think about what's changing, the consumer is getting more choice. i think it's hard not to find the consumer as a winner in all of this. i also think from the advertiser's standpoint. if you think of linda yakarino, she's been rattling the cage for years about the need for better measurement, the problems with nielsen. i think in many ways trying to help not just nbc but help

advertisers understand what they were buying, target audiences with actual data and analytics i think not only consumers will be winners but brands and advertisers because they're going to have a better understanding of the ads they're buying and the impact they're having on the consume that's see them. >> that's an argument for saying anyone who is measuring the stuff directly, there would be potential winners among some of these content providers, too >> yeah, i mean look, all of them -- you are see lots of these companies jumping in, whether it's peacock, netflix, disney, everybody is jumping into the advertising pool as a way to accelerate growth it is certainly a smart decision there is no doubt that having a diverse set of offerings is going to help. i think the reality is that the challenge that most of these companies still face, they're

trying to cut their marketing spend. they're also starting to pare back the amount they spend on programming. launching a lower tier is nice but you really need a lot of content. i think one of the things we really learned over the last 12 months or so is that you need a tremendous amount of content to keep consumers engaged it's probably why disney -- we've talked about on this air the whole disney-hulu issue. it sounds like iger couldn't find a buyer for hulu and now sounds set on keeping it because he realizes disney plus needs more condition tent and he's going to blend that in, assuming he can reach an agreement with comcast in 2024 p 24 >> when you say he's realized he can't find a buyer meaning i'm going to do the best i can with what i have to live with at this

point? >> well, i think that's why investors, the reaction, the negative reaction. i can't remember the last time disney stock went down 8 or 9% it's been a while. that negative reaction, if you think about what iger did, he was a huge fan of hulu and general entertainment before he left disney. then he came back into disney in november of 2022 and he really took a pretty hard line on that january conference call talking about sort of, you know, undifferentiated content, too many services. he actually said point blanc general entertainment is not disney's strength. >> that's just a reflection of what the market wanted when he left versus what the market wanted when he came back >> sure. but then he flip-flops back to, well, that was probably a lull too harsh and general entertainment is going to be helpful to disney plus it felt like sort of u.s.

acquiescing, he couldn't find a buyer, my guess is there wasn't a buyer. comcast probably doesn't want to pay the price that disney wants. there's this put agreement where disney can force comcast to take it the next best option is you have to integrate it into disney plus and make one single service. >> that one day disney was down a lot but the dow was down 350 points or something. i was looking at comcast it was like up three quarters it it was because it looked like disney and hulu made it less likely that disney was going to get stuck. i think comcast was up because they're not going to have hulu

>> using linda is a big blow to nbc universal and comcast. she's a force of nature. the change that she's put through and the way she's pushed back against the industry, it's a real asset to elon, definitely a loss for nbc i don't know the person that's taking over for her well obviously the up front are this week, but i think the big are issue is what's the future of linear television and her move to twitter is symbolic of the fact that linear tv continues to fade as the broadcast tv fades, the future will be in digital and this is a pretty big digital move >> i'm surprised you say it could be more than nine. i was glad there was a floor >> look at netflix's valuation >> it's not hulu >> it is not if you think about relative

valuations i think there were definitely people using it as a bar and now that bar is a lot higher. >> 15 sounds good for comcast. >> i'm putting a stake in the ground at 11 and we'll revisit it in 12 months. >> we can talk >> thanks, rich. >> thank you >> coming up, we're going to hear from chicago fed president austan goolsbee and a wide ranging interview with paul tudor jones. "squawk box" will be right back. . no coach, there is a goat here! whaaa! what's this? a thousand dollar hospital bill? but i have good health insurance! gaaaaaap! did you say 'gap'? he's talking about the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. but with aflac, you can get money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? gaaaap! aflac! gaaaap! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com

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when we come back right here on "squawk box," back-to-back news-making interviews first the chicago fed president austan goolsbee will be with us. and then right here in manhattan, legendary investor paul tudor jones ahead of the big robinhood event tonight. (cecily) you're looking pleased with yourself. (seth) well, not to brag, but i just switched my whole family to verizon. (cecily) oh, it's america's most reliable 5g network.

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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. let's get to steve liesman at the atlanta feds 2023 financial markets conference he joins us with a very special guest. say held le to mr. president for me, steve. >> yes, and thank you for reminding me to call him president because we knew him austan i want to start off with some of the great language used in your last speech. you said that the banking issue, the credit issue was the big,

ha hairy elephant in the room you not want to make him or her angrier than he or she already is and yet you raised rates again. was that something of a contradiction about banking issues and the potential issues in the economy and you voting for another rate hike at the last meeting >> i didn't feel it was a contradiction because the main point of that speech was when you have these big times of uncertainty, let's be prudent and patient and watch a lot more data than we normally do and at the meeting in which we were confronting the banking issue, we scaled down our forecast of what was going to happen and in the six-week time period before that next meeting, you had not really -- it hadn't shown up in the data yet so staying on the plan that we

had outlined when we knew about the crisis beginning or the financial stress beginning, i felt that that was appropriate and now we're continuing watching that data we still got a few weeks before the next meeting but watching the credit stresses, watching the craziness over the debt ceiling and watching what's happening in the labor market and the pruces i think we got to do that. >> you said the times of financial stress are times for putin's impatience when it comes to monetary policy what does that mean for the meetings in the months ahead >> well, you know i'm not a big fan of tying ourselves in before we get the data of what does that mean for when what raise and how many basis points but i think it basically means monitoring more than just your normal data sets, that you got

to be attuned to a bunch of measureses of credit and how tight they are to figure out whether the credit is kind of doing the tightening work of monetary policy, independent of the monetary policy and the prudence and patience is you got to look through the waggles. you know that at moments like this you don't want to land the plane nose down and we've raised the rates 500 basis points over a year and a lot of the impact of that is still in the pipeline coming that's a mixing of metaphors but -- >> i get it, i get it. so tell me right now would you call what's happening a banking crisis is it banking turmoil? and is banking -- kind of picking um on the question that joe asked the atlanta fed president, is there a measurable amount of tightening that's going to come from this banking

turmoil? >> those are two different things and you started by "tell me now. that's kind of demanding there, steve. right now tell me is that a banking crisis it doesn't feel like 2008 type of crisis if you want to interpret it that way, but it definitely feels like a financial stress in some parts of the financial sector. historically, which is all we have to look at, when you have stresses like that, if leads to measurable tightening, that the senior loan officers opinion survey was already tightening before this banking stress began. and everything that you hear from the bank officials says we're raising our standards, we're going to conserve our

capitol, the impact is yet to be seen what does that mean in terms of basis points it's different than a federal fund rate so it not exactly the same you could ask what's the equivalent impact on gdp growth and i don't think it's small i think for a short increase in the federal funds rate, you've seen estimates that go from 25 basis points to 150 basis points and everybody where in between but that's why i do think we got to take that into account and the only way to do that is sit and watch it >> so you feel like you're kind of done at this level and this is a hike and hold zone right here >> like i say, we have weeks to go before the meeting and a whole bunch of data still coming in i don't think you would say

independent -- >> i have a bias to there's still a lot of the impact from the 500 basis points we did in the last year that's still to come you add on that there are tight credit conditions and i think we should be exinterest mindful we want to be sure it's, get inflation back to the correct target path without starting a recession. that's of course the goal. and you've seen a cooling in the labor market you've seen the vacancies, the unemployment rate, you've seen that coming down but it's still high and it's like the inflation. inflation's improving but it's not improving that rapidly and so we just got to balance it >> becky has a question. make sure you say president goolsbee >> president goolsbee, kind of rolls off the tongue

let's talk a little bit about where the fed stands at this point. we keep hearing unanimous decisions but as you get closer to an inflexion point or a period where the fed stops raising rate there has to be a point where maybe not more dissent comes but more discussion in terms of what you all talk about around the room if you had to pick one area where there seems to be the most discussion, the most debate, what is it >> that's a super important question, becky, and i like to say in this century i consider the federal market committee the world's greatest deliberative body it's exactly what you described. there's a lot of discussion and the disagreements i think are -- for sure i don't want to go into what -- who says what. >> sure. >> but we're all trying to

process this where are we in the business cycle when the business cycle looks nothing like previous business cycles so we had a downturn that was not driven by cyclically sessions and the question is the job market overheated? why is the wage going down are we going to have sustained economic growth? can we afford recession? the arguments about the where are we in the business cycle are critical to the discussion of the monetary policy. and now this whole second side of what does this stress moment in the credit market mean for the economy and for the financial system and with the subunit of, oh god,

please don't let the debt ceiling come at exactly the wrong time >> mr. president, austan, i don't know how much insight you'd like to give us but was it a close call for you at all? did you think about maybe dissenting and when you final lich decided to go with it, is it because you think that that little incremental addition to hurting demand will help with inflation or was it psychological or was it so you could have unanimity with the rest of the fed? what went into your thinking, and was it a close call at all with you >> it was a close call and i take it seriously at every meeting, kind of processing what have we gathered from the last meeting compared to what did w expect at the previous meeting the things that made it a close call for mes is what is going to

be the impact of this on credit conditions in our business contacts and our look at the data, it didn't look in that period like it had gotten notably worse yet and so that's what i -- >> very quickly, i got 30 seconds. the market is 70 basis points away from you on the year end. is the market dead wrong about that in forecasting cuts >> i don't know of course. i would have emphasized two things one, a lot of times if you unpack it, we have a difference are opinion how strong or week will the economy be in this half of the year. the last time this happened, but i would also refer you to the bar property about svb to remind you they had interest rate hedges and they took them off

because they believed what the narkt was saying, not what was in the sep, that the sep said rates were going to stay high and they seemed to conclude -- >> president austan goolsbee, back to becky quick. >> excellent job we loved all these interviews today. we want to go over to andrew he is also joined by a special guest this morning >> thanks, becky from legend to legend. we have a very special guest this morning joining us is legendary trader paul tudor jones, the founder and ceo of tudor investment corporation and also the founder and why we're here right now of the robinhood foundation, which is holding its annual gala here this evening they're getting it are ready

literally as we speak. nice to see you, sir >> it's good to talk to you, andrew >> i want to react a little bit to and where do you think the interest rates will go >> i think they're done hiking i'm so glad i don't have their job because laistening to this guys and they can't say what they want to say. >> what does he want to say? >> he wants to say they've done too much but that's what he wants to say he's new on the board and -- >> what do you want to say >> i think he's right. i think they're done zp >> you think they're done? >> i think they're done. they could probably declare victory now. if you look at cpi, it's been

declining 12 straight months that's never happened before in history. so there's a strong downward arc to inflation at the moment two of your break evens are under 2% clearly they have to be governed by but if we get to the hearing now you can see inflation to a great extent has been wrung out. market does that mean we're getting ready to imminently cut? no you got to think of interest rates a bit like chemoio so chemo is poison interest rates a cut out amount of sector-wide debt we have been tn where we typically in a recession in the past because of the interest hacks on the economy. we're at a level that historically has really slowed the economy and historically has

wicked off a recession i think it's just a matter of waiting for that tax to work through the economy. >> the state then would raise interest rates >> i could have been talked out of it. i would have been reluctant. the only reason why i probably would maybe have gone along with it is because i think equity prices are going to continue to go up this year. the financial cycle drives so much of the business cycle you said you think equity prices are going to go up this year >> oh, yeah. >> real economy is going to be -- >> could go into recession in third, fourth quarter. when i say we're going to be higher, i'm not rampantly

bullish because i think it will be a slow as we had if i go whack to the '06, '08, a '08 episode. we stopped hiking in june of '06. the stock market ground higher, even though the economy was decelerating for another year and change and i look at the flow of funds situation, which is what i like to look at in '06 and i look at it now, they're very similar we have a trillion dollars of buybacks, no ipos, no secondaries, value haitians are at 19 but nobody is rushing to offer. so clearly something is going on internally in the stock market and by that i mean from a. let me ask you this. we had stan drukenmiller who was on the air just last week and he made a comment that given the remarkable margins in corporate

america today, he said it's possible that stocks don't move anywhere for ten years >> i think we're in such a big massive a multi-year trading chang. but if you had asked me six months ago, i'd probably give you a different forecast on long-term inflation and i'd give you a different forecast on the stock market >> but you think for ten years we might be in a trading range, for the next ten years >> i think we're going to have a more bifurcated market than we've ever had over the course of the next five or ten years because i do think that the introduction of large language models, artificial intelligence, is going to create a productivity boone that we've only seen a few times in the last 75 years. so just to be clear, if you think about the bigproductivit

miracles that we've had since the war, you had one in the late 50s, which was really a delayed reaction to the infrastructure investment and then we had 180s bauz of the introduction of the pc and then one in the 90s because of the introduction of the internet each of those three episodes were associated with productivity gains of somewhere between 1 and 3% so figure -- let's say that this large language model is going to give us a product boom of 1.5% over the next five years per year which i think is possible. we've had the fastest adoption of it in history, right? so if that's the case, and i just go back and look historically what that's done during those productivity miracles, you've had the stock market on average appreciate 15%

per year oouf in inflation come down. this is literally a gift to the central bank save 30 to 50 basis points, certainly in the early years and you've had a p a pe expansion between somewhere between 1 1/2 and 2. i think this will be more bifurcated than it was back in those otherones. but, yes, that makes me think the tide is coming in to the stock market >> that's a good thing for the stock market but then you said a trading range -- you said you agreed with stan druckenmiller it maybe would not be what you would do >> what i mean is we have different cycles that are going to be competing with each other in the short, intermediate and long run we have a long-term productivity

boom that's going to come from llms that within the stock market -- >> that's a.i., large language models >> right, a.i. within the stock market, there's going to being huge winners and huge losers. so he can be right and i can be right because there are going to be some big winners and big losers >> okay. layer into this, though, the banking crisis that we're living through today and the debt ceiling debate >> i'm going to need a model to figure all this out, right so the debt ceiling debate reminds me -- i just had my first granddaughter three weeks ago. >> congratulations >> and i forgot -- >> thank you very much i forgot when you're holding that baby that after they've been feeding they tend to do a little throw up all the time, right? so i think that's what this debt ceiling is going to be it's going to be kabuki theater, a little throw up. the real question is where are we going to be a month from now?

a month from now after it's resolved, then where are two-year rates my guess is they might be a little high. there's risk premium in everything because we're all terrified of the debt ceiling. so if those are gone, stocks are probably a little higher, bills probably a little higher, rates might be a touch higher because those risk premiums will disappear. that's the very shortest term. >> so you'd buy on that if you think a deal gets done >> yeah, i think you'll have some kind of indigestion along the way and, yes, i'd buy back then we have in a more intermediate basis, we have the financial cycle. the financial cycle, which is what we kind of look at internally is the combination of the historical debt and asset

valuation boone bust if you think about post-co individual, we had this massive increate in debt, in value creation, it creates a boom in this financial cycle, that happened in 1990, 2000 and our financial cycle, the peak of total debt growth plus stock market valuation occurred in september of 2021. historically, it's about a two-year lag when that really, really bites and you go into recession. that would be third quarter this year >> okay. >> there's a good chance, based on our most recent financial episodes, there's a really good chance that we're going to be on the verge of looking like or actually going into a recession. >> so, we're in a recession, but you think the stock market's higher because it's looking at 12 months after?

>> because i think, again, if i just think about this year, and i think about '06, '07, '08, it doesn't mean that the stock market cannot go higher as the economy decelerates. if that was the last hike that we just had, the playbook's real simple six months from now, stocks are 10% higher six months from now, interest rates are generally 50 to 70 basis points lower there's a halcyon period post-last hike where asset prices do okay commodities barely recover the dollar kind of does nothing. >> i had referenced this banking crisis that we're in i don't know if you think it's a crisis or something else how does that factor in? where do you think we are? >> i think that's one of the reasons why that was the last hike i mean, this banking crisis, it's troubling to me, because we

just killed three big banks. and when i say "we," i think bad monetary policy combined with bad fiscal policy created a situation that never had to happen we knew in the fourth quarter of 2020, it was so obvious we were going to have a vaccine, but we continued with quantitative easing for an entire year after that and the whole time, we're telling everyone, rates are going to stay low forever. inflation is not an issue. we're trying to get inflation above 2% the banks -- anyone that was listening to our fed at that point in time was probably doing exactly what these banks did, extending maturities, because they were being told that inflation didn't exist when it finally did come, it was

transitory, and rates were going to be low forever. we did not have to have all that overstimulus, and then all of a sudden we found out inflation wasn't transitory. we had to -- they had to course correct an overexaggeration of what they were doing in 2020 monetary policy. >> okay, i got a different one for you. bitcoin. you came on our air during the early part of the pandemic, i think it was trading at $8,000 or $9,000 a coin >> yep >> and you said, i'm in. >> yeah. >> and i think you rode it all the way up to $60,000 and rode it back down to $15,000, and we're now sitting around $27,000. >> i've never sat on a horse that long, just so you know. >> so, what's the -- you're still on the horse, though >> from the beginning, i've

always said i want to have a small allocation to it because it's a great tail event. it's the only thing that humans can't adjust the supply in, so i'm sticking with it i'm going to always stick with it it's just a small diversification in my portfolio. what do i think right now? i liked it last december i still think i -- >> would you buy more right now? >> i would probably -- i'm kind of -- i look at it in gold, and i think, they've done so well recently because of the fact that we have had these great risk premiums. i wonder -- i wonder -- i wonder whether they may not be boring in the future. bitcoin has a real problem because in the united states, you had the entire regulatory apparatus against it, so it's just kind of yesterday's news, and if inflation's truly done a bit, if it's -- if that story's

been played, then you have to wonder we were buying gold and bitcoin for the inflation hedges that gain made the over. i would -- six months ago, before a.i., before the possible productivity boost that we'll get for it, i would have said a completely different story with regard to inflationary future and with regard to all the inflation hedges >> okay, i got a different one for you. you spend a lot of time thinking about esg. >> right >> and we have this big fight going on in the state of florida between disney and desantis. disney thinking that it's speaking out, using its first amendment right on behalf of its workers, something that most of your polls historically have shown to be the thing companies are supposed to do, and yet on the other side, there's the political punishment that's coming along with that, and i think a lot of ceos are looking at that and saying, i don't know

if i'm supposed to speak out anymore. >> yeah. i'm not sure -- i if just think about what all our polling at just capital says, the pocketbook issues are by far and away the most important issues for corporate america. the pocketbook issues. am i getting paid a fair and living wage? once we get into the politics of a variety of issues, the importance of those issues fall dramatically down the scale. so, it's tragic to me that we would have one of the biggest employers, if not the biggest employer in florida, and the governor in a fight. it's tragic. i would hope they would both stand down >> let's talk about tonight. you've been doing this now 35 years.

this is quite something. there will be 3,000 people that are going to pack this place >> 4,000 we're more than sold out >> a lot of folks from wall street and corporate america what are you expecting to happen tonight? also, given the economic environment, one of the things that happens every year, which you raise millions upon millions of dollars it's a spectacle, frankly, to see the numbers light up the screen what are you anticipating happens this evening, especially given the economic environment >> well, let me just say, first of all, tonight is going to be unlike any other night in that 35-year history. we've got some surprises that are going to be absolutely spectacular. i think that people's desire to do good and to help and to believe in community are just as strong as they are now as they were in our entire history

so, i expect people to show up and to give. i just want to -- and this is a spoiler alert for people who are coming tonight i was previewing this video that we did on -- that we're going to show tonight on association of benefit children run by this -- the u.s.'s mother teresa, gretchen, and in the video, it shows this a.i.d.s. orphan from the '90s and how they tracked this a.i.d.s. orphan from the early '90s all the way to now and how he's turned into this incredibly wonderful, giving human being, father, and teacher, and while i was watching, i was sitting there going, oh my lord. i had this visceral impact, because i remember being at abc

in the early '90s. we were having our board meeting there, and i remember gretchen taking us into their maternity ward where all these a.i.d.s. babies were lying, were lying and crying, swaddled babies crying, and she said, we don't have enough people to hold them. they just want to be held. and so all of us took a baby, and i was sitting there thinking, oh my gosh, there's a really good chance that i held that -- i either held victor or his brother, eric, at that point in time, and at the time, we didn't know much about a.i.d.s we had no idea what it was we thought we were just holding these doomed children, children of god, for some momentary respite or succor, and i see that video and go, oh my lord, they made it he made it he made it because of abc.

he made it because we have been supporting them forever, and it dawned on me, generational continuity enables generational change >> well, tudor jones, i want to thank you for your time this morning. your insights. we wish you a lot of luck this evening with one of the most important causes in new york thank you again. >> thank you so much >> you bet joe, back to you >> beautiful story >> that was. got to go. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. active news flow today some debt ceiling optimism as talks resume tomorrow. softer inflation prints in europe and asia, upgrades of schwab, meta, and dupont our road map