meeting. musk-see tv. >> i can't wait for that david is going to do the interview as long as elon stays there. we'll be speaking to the ceo of bentley they have five ev models on the way in 2030. >> i'm getting one for you >> "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner right here at the new york stock exchange. we begin with a decidely di directionless market here is your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. banks and semis good day the nasdaq is the outperformer today. energy, industrials and materials higher the cyclical trade showing signs of life. our talk of the tape, despite all the risks out there from the

debt ceiling to the uncertain economy, is the biggest money in this market growing more positive on stocks do their moves give us any clues? let's ask leslie picker. what are we learning here? >> reporter: lots to learn and lots of filings so far, scott. both value and growth investors seeming bullish on tech during the quarter. tech doubling its exposure in amazon, netflix and microsoft. the firm selling off millions of dollars of alibaba and jd.com. big tech also catching a bid from value investors as well balcoast bought a bunch more

alphabet d-1 more of a growth investors rotating out of big tech the firm paired back over half its positions in amazon and microsoft. also taking down exposure to home renovation trades selling out sherwin-williams and slashing its stake in rh in half one new name was pnc, one of the larger regional banks, note worthy due to the bank turmoil and the fact that d-1 invests in areas that are growth oriented these come from 13-f filings their positions has likely shifted in the six weeks since we should get the bulk of 13-f filings after the bell today, scott. >> good disclaimer

backward looking take it with a grain of salt although it's a good hint as to where people are looking leslie, thank you. if you have anything else, let us know. that's leslie picker we heard from another big name hedge fund manager on "squawk box. where the markets could go from here in his mind and sounding more positive than he has in a long time. >> equity prices are going to continue go up this year i'm not rampantly bullish. i think it will be a slow grind. we just got -- if i go back to 2006, 2007, 2008, we stopped raising then the stock market grinded for a year and change. i look at the high flow

situation. they're very similar we have a trillion dollars of buybacks, no ipos, no secondaries, valuations are at 19, but nobody is rushing to offer. clearly something is going on internally in the stock market that's constructive. >> all right is he right? let's bring in gabriella sanchez. good to have you with us equity prices are going to continue to go up. that's what ptj said he's been pretty cautious over the last 18 months is now a time to start transi transitioning? >> one of the aspects of that positive view he mentioned is the slow grind upwards we think it will still be a slow grind. i think you've already seen the

biggest benefit coming from peak interest rates, which was certainly to fuel this initial rally in tech, already up 22%, combined with the enthusiasm in cost cutting and the enthusiasm around ai, right now the question is what gets either cyclicals or defensives moving they're basically flat year to date what you need to see is a little more clarity on the macro picture so investors have more conviction pivoting one way or the other. there's a lot of uncertainty around what the macro picture looks like ultimately we think it tilts more towards the defensive side of the equations we expect that to start leading over the next few months it will get us to the fall before we have more clarity on the macro picture. >> what do you think, adam something is going on internally in the market according to paul

tudor jones. >> as you know, we try to get on the bull case a lot on the program. where is it? i don't love the 2006, 2007 analog what happened after that was 2008 which was a massive financial crisis i guess you want to copy that a little bit and then pump the brakes i think there's something going on underneath. it's ai. some of it is people's perception about the fed some of it is the low end consumer looks like it's going to be more robust for longer and may not be a typical recession. there's real reasons the market has done better. i think that part to go contrary, makes sense. >> can it continue >> i think it can continue

i have no idea about a one-month view you saw my note from this week a lot of stuff is not helpful for predicting one-month views we talk about breadth and bear and open market -- if you look out 6, 12 months, the market is going to be fine and you'll get your 6% return from the equity market that's a reasonable base case to start with and pivot from. >> let's take the next seven months everybody seemingly is negative. when somebody like paul tudor jones comes out and he's positive, i can listen to him making a credible bull case that others have tried to make. >> scott, can i make an interesting case of where we are excited about equities, where it's not a slow grind story and do the parallel with 2003, 2007,

which is outside the u.s that's one area we see garnering a lot of inflows, but starting from a low base where the average investors overweight the u.s. by 10 percentage points we've seen this play out in spades in europe which has outperformed 20 percentage points since october can we make the argument for what can repeat that performance going forward and we would argue china and emerging markets ultimately this big positive shock of china's re-opening and its pendulum shift towards the pro-growth side, it's been expressed through europe and european luxury, not quite yet in china and through emerging markets which is a bit down year to date surprisingly we think if we get a turn around in chinese confidence and see better second quarter data out of china, we'll get that tomorrow em can be the next leg that shoots higher just like europe

did over the last seven months. >> i feel like this is a largely conversation of the bear case has already played out, versus the bear case has yet to happen. this long talked about economic decline, we're still waiting for it the long talked about consumer decline, we're still waiting for it the long talked about earnings disaster, we're still waiting for it the fed's done, we think can you put a plus b plus c and get somewhere constructive >> that's why the market's -- >> and the market's resilient too. >> i like that argument of the market is telling you something. i don't disagree with that part. you know, i don't know about the nonu.s. equities i'll defer to you on that. i've been lured by that in my life previously and regretted it both in my personal account and

advise-wise. you know, maybe it was 10, 12 years ago i got in trouble on the air by saying europe is great, but not for stockings from here, i don't know. my view is most of the people i talked to want to figure out if they should buy u.s. equities here if you look at the hedge funds, they're higher in europe and asia if you're going to play with sentiment recovery, maybe the u.s. will have more upside i think people are bummed they're not participating more it's interesting you led the show with f-15 findings. 90% can be explained by macro factors. >> what do you think -- >> i think that's saying people are more bullish that's what these really smart people are saying. they're bullish on u.s. equities. >> they're bullish on where the

momentum has been, the amazons, netflix, microsoft, tiger, google, nonetheless, it's not exactly a great shock that some of these most well-known investors are going into the most well-known names. >> it's a very painful trade to be out of given a lot of the names are up double digits year to date. makes sense we continue to see inflows into them. we just wonder where we'll see substantial upside from here and it's in some of the more unloved areas and going back to that idea of international, out of the u.s. that hasn't worked for 15 years. it's been a great play to be in these tech companies in the u.s. we make the parallel to 2003 and 2007 where earnings lagged in the u.s. and led in europe and emerging markets

you have that chance to close the discounts you have there. >> the part i agree with there -- i love energy and metals sure you can do just as well or better with european equities. if you have that mandate, i get that i struggle on the tech side. the theme i believe is moving the market is ai and most of the ai participants are u.s. companies. there aren't european. my view of the world is their stocks have exposure to ai and then there's ones destroyed by ai you'll trade six, seven times with the one that is don't benefit. >> i mention the debate is bear case already happened versus bear case still to happen. does this come down to whether you believe there will be a recession or not if you do, you can't be bullish. if you don't, why wouldn't you be bullish

we present the paul tudor jones case to you. listen to the market market is telling you something. maybe things will be better now that the fed, in his words, is done jpm jpmorgan, today, he's reiterating why he's more negative we have this conversation as to who is right you have to believe one is right versus the other to shape your view if you think bonds are right, what do you do with that >> i think the treasury market is screaming recession when you look at the inversion of the yield curve, three-month tenure or even when you look at the behavior in terms of the whole yield curve having seemed to have already peaked and yields coming down, looking forward to rate cuts, most likely as a result of a recession. that's ultimately why we're not

excited about taking risk in credit within fixed income which doesn't reflect a chance of a meaningful slowdown. you've not seen spreads widen significantly and in u.s. equities because you have that risk of still seeing the cumulative impact of rate hikes combined with the credit tightening that's just now coming down the pike why not express risks where there is positive economic momentum and that gets back to the idea of europe and emerging ai. >> at what point do we see this long talked about recession and economic malaise is not going to happen when are we confident to make that call? by that point, the train's probably left the station. >> i think what all these smart investors are telling you is the easiest thing is to buy u.s. g grow if the economy slows and we go

back to -- >> okay and if -- >> these guys will have growth they win either way. >> you have a couple situations in which the multiples can be justified, even though they expanded. >> that's why growth is working. it's working because the ten-year yield comes down and the economy slows or, you know, the economy is all right and we're not in a recession then their earnings are better and either way you win that's why the successful people are buying thebig guys with benefits that's the argument they had once the banking crisis came out, it was easy i'll buy growth and wait and see what happens. >> if you think because of the banking issues we've had that not necessarily the fed put being back, but the fed's got your back. they've moving with silicon

valley bank and subsequent issues, they're not going to let the system fall apart. >> i don't want to get unb unbridlely bullish if you're looking within the u.s. market, i defer to you on nonu.s. because i have no clue it seems to me the barbell is buy stuff like oil, metals, utilities that you know you'll need forever or buy something that participates on the growth front and they'll have better earnings than they had in 2022 the stuff in between is tougher. if the multiple expand a ton, that's tough i think you're on the barbell with growth and metals >> how does that sound to you? >> that's in the u.s. >> forget the international play for a moment does it make sense -- >> it doesn't have to.

>> please disagree. >> he's begging you. he's giving you the t-ball to disagree >> i was hoping she would say no. >> to be honest, we still think the most likely outcome is a slowdown from here once you've taken crisis off the table, it's a slowdown and a mild recession we would be tilted towards the defensive side of the equation in the u.s that includes tech, but also staples, utilities and health care >> you think the fed's -- i want to ask you both. do you think the fed's done? paul tudor jones said the fed's done paul bostic, said maybe. >> we think post banking stress they're done and the most likely move is a rate cut they wait four months

historically between the last hike and the first cut and that sets us up nicely for the fall for the first cut. >> i have no idea. >> nobody has an idea. >> the first assignment i gave everyone this year was read the out look for the big five banks and equities and tell me what's happened so far. my point is that the smartest and best people in the world have no idea. >> if i told you the fed was done, you would say what >> randomly guessing -- i'm not good at this they're not done that's my view. >> if they are done -- >> the unemployment rate and the cpi don't indicate it. in the end they'll lag like they did in the way in. >> unless they come to the view that they don't have to crack the labor market like they once thought. >> and as inflation comes down you have higher positive real rates. there's tightening without having to raise rates further.

if they're done, cash is the worst place to be. it's time to increase duration you see 12 months out of performance of treasury. >> that's the growth stocks. >> that's the other way to express that. >> great stuff guys, thanks so much. >> have a good week. let's get to our twitter question of the day. paul tudor jones says equities will go up this year do you agree with ptj? go to twitter to vote. we're just getting started up next paypal's turnaround trouble. shares down 40% from their recent high as concerns grow over their search for a new ceo. the street is looking for some answers too. plus, a bull/bear battle over the road ahead for stocks where they see the biggest risks and rewards. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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trading day. a check of stop stocks to watch. pippa stevens is here with that. >> western digital popping more than 10% following a report that the company's merger talks with japan are accelerating they're currently partners with producing flash memory chips sofi under pressure. the firm saying the company may be nearing a tipping point on a

fee it recognizes related to loan origination and sales shares follow to $2.50 shake shack jumping on reports that engaged capital is planning to launch a proxy fight for three board seats. the stock had its highest level since march of 2022. >> pippa, thank you. wolf research is issuing an open letter to paypal's board. deidre bosa has the details. >> reporter: this is interesting. this is not an active investor this is a south side research firm looking for answers they say they wrote it in response to what they say the magnitude of inbound calls about the firm and to tell paypal's

board there's investors that are seeing better metrics, but don't want to jump in because of the uncertainty. paypal is in limbo we talked about its profitability, but thought to be less exciting and innovative that's a problem because paypal was once a darling it was worth more than $350 billion in market values. if you went into it even further since it separated from ebay in 2015 it has underperformed in s&p 500 and nasdaq one of the biggest pandemic stories and one of the biggest jumps and it's come down a lot from there on the latest earnings call there was no update on who is going to be the ceo. >> you used the words in limbo gordon haskins called this a lame duck stock because the very issues in which you're talking

about. also wondering whether elliot, the activist who was there is still there and didn't use the opportunity of a stock pop from earlier to maybe head for the exits. >> reporter: yeah, and you know, for a little bit it seemed like paypal may have been appeasing elliot because we saw better profitability, but it turns out it's not enough. for a stock and a company that is supposed to be at the leading edge of financial services with the many, many venmo users, hundreds, it's putting its rivals in the dirt just isn't doing much. it's been slow to monetize now it has a growth problem. that's part of the reason why wolf research wrote this loeade. they said these points don't matter until there's a new ceo. >> good stuff, thank you up next a bull/bear face

off. brian belski goes head to head with sebastian page. they'd debate the fed and maybe what paul tudor jones said today as well. we're celebrating aapi month sharing students of influential business leaders here's the ceo of the panda restaurant group. >> i'm proud to be asian american because we really value family we value togetherness and we value education. most importantly, we value giving back, but also we want to exhibit kindness in action throughout our life and also our career life.

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i'm bill lockwood, current caretaker and owner. when covid hit, we had some challenges like a lot of businesses did. i heard about the payroll tax refund, it allowed us to keep the amount of people that we needed and the people that have been here taking care of us. see if your business may qualify. go to getrefunds.com. i think banks are strong overall. in the past when you had a bank stress, it was because of a credit issue this is not a credit issue >> what's best for insurers and best for innovation is enforcing the anti-trust laws. >> i believe that ai is going to replace a lot of what i'm calling white collar clerical

jobs welcome back stocks struggling to find direction as investors turn their focus to the debt ceiling conversation where will stocks go from here with me now brian and sebastian. sebastian, nice to see you in person you described yourself as a reluctant bear are you still? >> i'm still reluctant i was watching your prior guests sounds like you need a bear on the show i'm happy to play one. >> i don't know. bears seem to be everywhere. >> they are everywhere the reason is that the bearish narrative is incredibly compelling gabriella talked about the yield field being inverted the three to ten is more inverted than in the '80s. pmis are down 17 points on the manufacturing side stocks are more expensive than

they were before the 2022 selloff and on and on. the market -- we're expecting double digit earnings growth in 2024 it's a pretty compelling narrative with markets being up so much year to date >> my other guest is a -- you're a bull, right? i don't even think you're reluctant, are you brian >> well, first of all, wonderful to be on with sebastian. long-time client nice to see you, sebastian i'm not reluctant. from very big picture to intermediate to near term. from a big picture standpoint, we think that u.s. stocks are in a bull market where the new cyclical bull started in october, we believe. those lows are well in place intermediate, our target for the s&p 500 is 4,300 that brings me to near term. the market's had a nice run.

we're trying to explain the unexplainable on the bull side and bear side. the traditional academic stuff isn't working for the bears and it's against the bulls, but th market remains resilient add that up and the market can, will and should be soft heading into summer. this is about stock picking. i believe the era of stock picking like the '80s and '90s is upon us from the equity perspective, that's what we have to live with from an asset allocation perspective, this is in sebastian's wheelhouse i think he's going to do quite well owning stocks and bonds, but the more fundamental is going to work. for the first time in ten years you want to own a little bonds. >> you say the bear case is so compelling is it getting tired and played out and when someone like paul

tudor jones comes on and he's starting to see a little bit of sunshine through the clouds, why isn't it time to do that he made some compelling arguments. >> the trend is not our friend it's not turning think of what i would call the four horsemen of the recession, the yield curve, which indicates the fed is tightening and the long-end expectations for growth are coming down. >> never a guarantee for recession. >> not at all. second, the pmis, they dropped, especially on the manufacturing side third, credit conditions that one is peeking on the horizon. the senior loan officers, 46% of them according to the last survey, are tightening conditions when did we reach 46% in

history, scott 2020, 2008, 2001, 1990, four recessions fifth, the last horseman we're still waiting for. it's sort of starting. it's unemployment, which is typically lagging. when you put it altogether, the only reason why, scott, i'm reluctant -- to brian's point, it pays to be in invested in stocks over time and we are. we're just pulling back a little bit. all these indicators flashing red if you look at macro data. a lot of them are year over year data that represent the unwinding of massive covid distortions. we pushed a bunch of cash into the economy and now we're pulling it back. we need to interconnect those red signals. >> maybe we stimulated things so

much to a historically, incredible degree, that the cushion we built was a lot softer and larger than we expected at the time and that is what's playing out the fed has done 500 basis points in 13 months. unemployment rate is down. we haven't had this the world's ending thing happen. >> if you would have asked any economist a year ago, what do you think will happen if the fed hikes by 500 basis points over the next year, most of them would have said 4, 5, 6% unemployment it hasn't happened we have 2 trillion in accumulated household savings. that's drawing down, but we're still at 800 billion. >> two thirds of the economy is built on the savings you're talking about and the spending that comes as a result that's why some say maybe the bear case has already played itself out and now is the

beginning stages of something better >> again, i don't think it's played itself out. there are ways to play the markets in a way that's selectively contrarian if you want to take risks, i wouldn't take risks tactically i wouldn't overweight risk at the top level on stocks. you talked about high yield and high yield spreads i'm an asset allocator i'm comparing high yield total yield with the stock market. i'm getting 9%, even 9.5% for short-term high yield. paul tudor jones said it's going to be a grind higher that's perfect for carrie. that's what's different about the prior recessions the fault risk is low. i would put risk back in the portfolio, but for high yield. >> brian, this is a conversation as i described earlier, that the

bear case hasn't played out yet, but it's going to and we were just seeing the chutes of it now, if you will we know that lending is going to be less. we know that credit conditions are going to get tighter and all of that is going to have an impact whether you see it through various spikes in initial claims sebastian mentioned in other places you're going to see it. >> that's a great point. remember, too, the macro models were absolutely right last year for the first time in a long time now the macro stuff is not working like it usually does not work because it's so lagged. on the credit tightening conditions, remember the last time we had a potential credit crunch, the banks were in much different conditions we think the large banks are well-positioned from a balance sheet perspective and the price to tangible book position and cash flow to pick up some of the

slack with respect to some of the small medium banks we're not the sky is blue and the grass is green as we filter through the economic data and certainly unemployment numbers the next couple months -- we haven't talked about the debt ceiling yet. at the end of the day, stock picking and fundamentals win in north america regardless of what everybody else thinks in terms of what's going on in emerging markets in europe. they did well last year from a price performance basis, but they're still lagging. they're way behind the eight ball in terms of their issues in terms of monetary policy still think the u.s. and canada is the place to be, but you have to be selective. >> you said your target is 4,300. as bullish as you say you are, and you're not reluctant, you're looking at 4% upside from here

that's not a raging bull like you sound. >> no, but at the end of the day, i hope i'm wrong. i would rather play the car of jamie dimon, under promise and over deliver i hope i'm wrong i think there's a good chance that my 4,300 is wrong, but we have to get through the summer and see how things start crank up in the fall remember, we've had no new issues, no secondaries that typically doesn't happen until stock prices go higher we need to see a solid if i indication of the market >> maybe that's a little what ptj was thinking in the way he described what he was looking at guys, thank you. sebastian, thank you for being here brian, thank you as well. we're close. pippa stevens back with that. >> reporter: one biotech fame is

popping big today. we'll tell you who and why coming up next

let's get back to pippa stevens for the stocks we're watching. >> reporter: sarepta surging 30% today after the fda approved

gene therapy for muscular dystrophy. >> h&r block under pressure following reports the government is looking to create its own online tax filing program. the irs is due to release the report next week scott? >> pippa, thank you. new 13-f filings continue to come in. leslie picker is back. what do we know here >> reporter: hey, scott, for all that talk about short sellers and regional bank stocks, one of the names is actually long and scion took new stakes in pacwest and western alliance both stocks surging today. first republic which was taken

over by jpmorgan was part of the buy list during the quarter, but we don't know if he sold before the failure of that bank which took place on may 1st. he added new space in huntington bank shares and he took stakes in bigger banks like wells fargo and capital one as well. to be clear, these are relatively small stakes, millions of dollars each and we don't know how he's positioned on the short side. these come from 13-f filings which are back dated to the end of march they may have changed since that time. >> that's super important, especially on this, just given not the who necessarily we're talking about, but the what, regional banks at a time of, you know, crisis and concern i think we can fairly say and whether, you know, he's even in those names anymore.

these could have been quick trades we just don't know it's interesting to see the stock reactions today, up so sharply and a couple of them -- the fact of the matter is we don't know >> reporter: yeah. there's almost more that we don't know from this filing in particular than we do. clearly getting some stock reaction on a vote of confidence, even though, like i said, we don't know how he's positioned on the short side we don't know how he's hedging this exposure. just the fact that there's a revelation that someone was long, even going back to march, is enough to send shares of pacwest, western alliance higher because, you know, there haven't been too many vocal champions these day. >> no doubt. a highly respected investors, it's just eye opening. leslie, thank you. it's your last chance to weigh in on our twitter question do you agree with paul tudor jones that equities will go up this year? go to twitter to vote. the results are next

♪ ♪

do yougr wh ulud aeeitpa tor jones? 61% say yes. the market zone is next.

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we're in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli here to break down the day. contessa brewer here too on fanatics $150 million play in the sports betting play. mike santoli, you first. 60% of those surveyed in our poll agree with paul tudor jones. >> little more bullish than a lot of the other gauges suggest. in answer to the question if apple goes down, can the s&p go up yes. we have a stock buyback window it's one day we'll see if it's the start of a

rerotation or not. >> jill carrie hall? >> for small caps, we've been cautious near term i think we're continuing to watch the signs of stability and, you know, regional banks and credit as well as volatility ahead of the debt ceiling. some risk short term, but we're still of the view that this is an opportunity for long-term investors. small cap valuations, this is still cheap. valuations don't tell you what happens over the next few weeks or months. over multiple years it's one of the most predictive signals for returns. we think you could see better returns over the next decade for small caps than for large caps i think even now near term there's a lot of opportunity for active investors in the side segment, despite the risks we think this is a time when you

want to be active over passive lots of opportunities for small caps to do that and our firm covers over 900 u.s. small cap stocks >> thank you for that one opportunity. interesting play contessa brewer, fanatics wants to be big time in sports better. >> they do they bought points bet for the low price of $150 million. ceo of fanatics says the cost for market access have plu plummeted. here you have points bet traded in australia fanatics private this is a gauntlet fan dual intends to list on the u.s. exchange later. draft kings, caesars, they consider fanatic a formidable new entrant. it's late to the sports betting

party, but making a splashy entrance. >> is there enough room for everybody? >> no. you have more than 60 operators now. i asked matt king for his prediction he said max 15 to 20 and most will be small operators. >> interesting we'll watch that contessa, thank you very much. two-minute warning there we wind down this first trading day of the week. for paul tudor jones to be right, does he also have to be right that the fed is done as he thinks they are? >> i think that's the premise. in theory could we get close to the june meeting and they bump it another quarter point possibly i don't think we can stay on the same treadmill, but we thought that before may 2nd. one of the reasons you have this two-sided debate is that even if you're bullish that the fed is done, you still are looking at

the leading indicators of a steeper slowdown in place and you're playing the lags. even if we muddle through for a while, which is a plausible scenario, you still have these late cycle conditions. you have low unemployment. you don't have -- you have fiscal contraction, whatever happens with the debt ceiling, they're not going to be spending more this year all those things keep people unexcited and keeps that cautious tone, the wall of worry, keeps people from jumping in with too much risk. that keeps the market from overshooting the mega cap growth trade has been a defensive trade- in that context. i think that's where the pendulum keeps swinging. >> 13-fs giving us some clue where the smart money is putting its money. never know if they hold these positions or not

whether it's tiger and maybe some of the ones we can get after the bell, berkshire and -- >> and the idea that banks are viable is interesting. >> thanks, everybody have a great evening i'll send it to "overtime" now with morgan and john there's your score card. welcome. i'm john fortt with morgan brennan and the deadline for 13-f filings is just over an hour away. we'll bring you the details as soon as they're reported. the ceo of the mortgage bankers association is here. let's get to today's applications we have tony