. it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. we start with janet yellen doubling down on the debt default as president biden prepares for the second face-to-face with mccarthy. ahead of the talks, markets are pricing in a credit rating downgrade with echos of the 2011 debt ceiling and busy day on capitol hill as two former failed bank leaders take the hot seat. and all about a.i. with another hearing with open a.i.

and bullish bets by berkshire has one stock popping ahead of the open. it is tuesday, may 16th, 2023 and you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's kickoff the check of the futures. a muted open flat across the board. the nasdaq is in the green fractionally not an an -- not a lot of movement in the debt ceiling the 10-year treasury is pretty much where it was yesterday. we have seen a slight decline on the yield on the 2-year treasury at 3.98% it ticked above 4% during yesterday's show we want to check energy and specifically oil on the back of the iaea forecast.

china demand for crude is growing at a faster pace than expected oil with wti up this morning had. above $71 a barrel brent crude at $75.30 natural gas is down this morning. we are also looking at crypto. bitcoin is below $30,000 at $27,200. ethereum is still below $2,000 down .50% this morning across the pond and trading in europe with another rocky session for turkey joumanna bercetche is in the london newsroom with more. joumanna, good morning that is right, frank first with the european markets and all of the indices are in the green. ftse 100 in the uk is up .20%. we had slightly weaker than expected wage data come through

which has lessened the rate hike possibility. cac 40 is trading in the green some of the sectors are coming under pressure with autos and luxury namely any stock that has exposure to china is coming under selling pressure with the disappointing data from china overnight. let's switch on and talk about turkey you see the fall continues against the u.s. dollar. lira is .30% weaker. worth noting the last two years, the currency is 60% weaker this after yesterday's election results showing recep tayyip erdogan is still holding a comfortable lead after the first round of votes in the presidential election. he faces a runoff against his rival people's party candidate both men failed to gain more than 50% of the ballot the reaction of the market yesterday was telling. people are concerned about what this means for the state of the turkish economy.

it wasn't just the lira, but the stock market was down 4% at the open banking stocks down 10%. >> a lot to watch when it comes to turkey. joumanna, you are tracking corporate news and shares of vodafone >> one of the under performers on the ftse 100 and the stoxx 600. the stock is down 4% after announcement of cutting 11,000 jobs in the next three years with the new ceo saying the perm performance has not been good enough the forecast for the year after the profit of 12 billion euro. vodafone is in merger talks with the uk business with ck 3 unit the group says there is no certainty any deal will take place. on the back of that news, the stock is trading negatively today. >> a lot of verydevelopments ont

stock. joumanna bercetche, thank you. time for the check of the corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> frank, good morning the ceo of silicon valley bank and signature bank head to capitol hill today for a hearing before the senate banking committee in the first public grill since the collapse of the companies two months ago in the prepared comments, former ceo greg becker does not believe any bank could have survived a run of that velocity adding his team made the best decision it could at the time. the hearing is scheduled to start at 10:00 a.m. eastern. shares of horizon sinking ahead of the open after reports the ftc is challenging the amgen deal to buy horizon. the ftc says they plan to tie up innovation and slow the pace of

drug development the suit is expected to be made public today. and elon musk is firing back at the u.s. virgin islands over a subpoena tied to the lawsuit over jpmorgan chase and convicted sex offender jeffery eps epstein. it has reason to believe epstein may have referred or attempted to refer musk to jpmorgan chase as a client and seeks to documents related to the accusations. now no comment from musk's legal team, but musk is tweeting calling this subpoena i diotic o so many levels to think i would listen to advice from a dumb crook is absurd >> big interview coming up today with elon musk and david faber silvana, thank you turning back to the markets. investors seeking portfolio protection as the risk of u.s.

debt ceiling default ticks higher and drama in the economy. that includes a shift toward shorter maturity trieeasury bils according to strategists at jpmorgan chase made up 74% of t-bill holdi holdings. for more on this, let's bring in delano saporu. great to see you. >> thank you, frank. >> we talk about the trend data from jpmorgan chase. it points to people looking for yield and trying to protect portfolios when you talk to your clients, what do you advise when it comes to the bond portion of their portfolios >> i think one thing we are advising is it is a good time to be in short-term treasuries.

if you are hearing over the last five months what you can get in a high yield savings account and the cash shorting going, on, a lot of people are looking into that if you look at the nasdaq, which has been kept in bull market territory right now, that doesn't lend to a lot of short-term bullishness i think a lot of people are looking for protection short-term duration bonds and treasuries are a great place to find that protection as well as dividend stream and income stream which is useable for people in a situation where inflation is running rampant it is a good place for people to look. >> you said the nasdaq 100 and qqq. kept in the bull market territory. a lot of people are piling in

m mega cap tech. >> i think that trade is still in a good trade for people for my standpoint and last time we talked, i think in may, things would get skittish. we are getting close to the territory where folks want to shift out of a little bit with fresh cash and shift out of the trades and look at new cash in the short-term treasuries and value plays. right now, if you look at the near term, there are things bubbling under the surface that's a real risk right now for investors. i think that slows down a little bit of what is going on with the economy. banks have higher credit standards. keep liquidity on hand and what is going on with consumers that will come back longer term. the short trade is something i would be cautious of

>> what about the debt ceiling we talked about protects portfolios what is your take on that? do you believe there is a default? are you worried about the credit rating of the u.s. >> i don't believe there will be a default. i understand the small risk there. if you look at the reasons why there is a risk where they were downgraded by the s&p. the interest rate was $25 billion of the now it is $930 billion. a percentage of the gdp and that is 95% which is a huge amount. those are reasons why there could be a downgrade if you look at what standard and poor's is saying, the outlook is because there will be something happening in legislation to raise the debt ceiling. >> thank you very much i appreciate the insight great to see you more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to note today.

first, hear what investors should expect when the ceo of chatgpt crheads to capitol hill today. and later, pricing on the odds of the credit downgrade if the debt deal gets done. stay with us more ahead on "worldwide exchange." a third kid. what if she likes playing golf? it's expensive. we're outlawing golf. wait. can i still play? since we work with emower, we don't have to worry about planning for a third kid. you can still play golf... sometimes. take control of your financial future to empower what's next. ♪ ♪ this is rochelle, who gives you a shot. ♪ ♪ rebecca is there when you feel not so hot. ♪ ♪ this is larissa, who's feeling glown up. ♪ ♪ and this here is winnie, who zhuzhed up their cup. ♪

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange."

a market flash on crypto it adopted the first legal framework for the rules of crypto regulation to require firms to be authorized by the eu to serve customers in the region they must comply with safeguards against money laundering look at crypto bitcoin down .30%. ethereum down .50% xrp down 1%. moving on. today, the ceo of chatgpt heads to capitol hill to testify in a hearing. julia boorstin is here with the latest >> reporter: in the sub committee hearing on privacy technology and the law, we are sure to hear a number of concerns of a.i. beyond the fear of robots taking over the world. issues consumers being misled that it will perpetuate bias

a.i. and technology such as facial recognition will sresult in privacy violations. rise of a.i. will increase the dominance of the tech giants and likely hear of how a.i. can drive job losses we are sure to hear concerns if a.i. is incorrectly regulated, american innovation could be stifled and china will win the a.i. race. senate majority leader chuck schumer has been working on a proposal for transparency and disclosures over a.i. is trained and responses generated. his framework requires companies to review and test a.i. ahead of the public releasor update he advocates for etherhical guidelines there are billing bills ranging political ads and launching nuclear weapons. frank.

thank you. christina montgomery will be sitting right there alongside of others montgomery says she will call on congress to adopt a precision regulation approach to a.i asking them to regulate base on specific use cases instead of using blanket standards. also on her wish list, different rules for different risks with clear definitions for risks as well as transparency rules for a.i. use for more on the hearing and future of a.i. regulations, let's bring in salema rice she advises companies on data management strategies and a.i. transformation salema, good morning. >> thank you >> we are getting insight into the hearing. do you agree we need regulation to allow innovation by companies and do you believe it will also protect individuals? >> yes, absolutely

i think we as a society love data and love a.i. and love all the ways in which we can help our organizations grow and save money and innovate there is a stake at risk it is like with the great power comes great responsibility these types of controls are necessary. we don't want to have unbias we want people to trust the data we want people to trust the a.i. without those in place, i'm afraid we have a bit of a fiasco. >> you are taking a "spider-man" approach with great power means great responsibility what is the responsibility part that you think companies have and do individuals have responsibility as well >> absolutely. from the individual, i think you want to be able to identify what

information you want to share. part of the challenge we have today with the inflection point that is on us is we don't know enough about it of we don't know who owns the data. we don't know who owns the output of the models as consumers, we're worried if our data is being used and sensitive data used. if i'm a consumer, how do i trust it if there are not controls in place and think of the truth in advertising. how can we really put guardrails around it so we can identify and use it to make confident fact-based decisions >> it seems like you are touching on the fact that a.i. needs data and large amounts of it >> very large. >> when it comes to the data, what is the responsibility for companies and right now, i think

most people agree that data is out there and we don't control it we are hearing from schumer and we will hear more precision regulation talk from the ibm executive and i imagine sam al altman will have his take. >> i think there are going to be regulations around what kind of data we can use. eliminating in some cases some of the personal sensitive data i think we have to have regulations around not using bias today data that could harm an individual or a company. i think you touched a little bit on ensuring that companies are giving consumers the opportunity to know what is being used i want to know what type of data

and what type of information is being used to produce this a.i. output so i know and feel confident and whether or not i can trust it for making decisions or trust for driving my car or trust it for a surgery. i think being very transparent is going to be a big part of the a.i. regulations that we're going to hear about today. >> i think transparency is a key word we are just getting had this conversation started salema rice, thank you >> absolutely. thank you. coming up on the show, a challenging landscape when it comes to regulatory hurdles and big tech in europe big tech in europe case in point,-strength pain relievers, actv actvision. stay with us so you can rise from pain like a pro. icy hot pro.

welcome back time for the big money movers. today is about 13-f. we kick it off with westarren buffett's bet on capital one including bank of america and american express capital one shares up 7% moving on to dan loeb's position in alibaba and alphabet. we are looking at bill ackman's

pershing square. 2 million shares of the class a stock of alphabet. and david einhorn's greenlight picking up p shares of new york community bank looking at those banks up in pre-market we are watching shares of microsoft and activision-blizzard. this after european regulators signed off on the tech giant's proposed $69 billion takeover of the video game maker weeks after uk regulators rejected that deal we have arjun khapal in london with the latest. why the concern? >> if the deal goes through, microsoft would take the

activision games and make them exclusive for the platform there and bringing up anti-trust concerns now both regulators found this would not be an issue in the console market, but regulators found it would be an issue in the nascent cloud gaming issue a netflix style of gaming to stream without hardware consoles what happened was, microsoft took the concerns and moved to offer remedies to the uk and eu saying they would give licenses to be streamed on any cloud gaming platform for ten years. not just microsoft's platform. the eu accepted this saying this is a good deal this will boost competition. now smaller players get activision games on the streaming platforms and offer competition. uk rejected the remedy saying it would be hard to enforce and would not take into account the

changing nature of the cloud gaming market which is still in the infancy. the uk, frank, will stick by the decision a bit of a conflict here with the eu and uk. >> it is a disconnect with the two regulators here is the big question what happens next? >> in the uk, microsoft has said it would appeal the decision of the competition and market authority. it is rare where the cma decision has been overturned when it comes to appeal. slim chances for microsoft on appeal the other is the ftc in the u.s. under the stewardship of lina khan who has the reputation of anti-tech and against the tech deals going through the pipeline that will be a huge challenge. investors will watch for august when these two go at it in a courtroom. still a big mountain to climb

for microsoft. it has the eu on its side, but two regulators stand in its way in the form of uk, cma and ftc >> arjun, thank you for the report. still to come here on "worldwide exchange," a big win for peacock and sports illustrated new cover model embracing for record travel. we are have the top trending stories coming up. catch my conversation with the ceo of s.a.p. coming up at 4:30 p.m. eastern we have more on "worldwide exc exchange." we're coming back in a moment. d financial planner™? - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®.

it is 5:30 a.m. in new york city we are just getting started here on "worldwide exchange." debt ceiling sitdown take two. president biden set to reconvene with mccarthy and other la lawmakers. the latest in a moment. and fears of debt drama making investors nervous we are looking to protect portfolios at charles schwab. and home depot with earnings out in minutes we have this only on "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's pick up the check on the u.s. stock futures they are flat as investors try to wait out the debt ceiling talks. s&p and dow jones industrial average lower. nasdaq higher. not a lot of movement there. we get a check on the top stories with silvana henao who is back with those silvana. frank, wells fargo reached a deal to settle the class action lawsuit. according to reports, the bank is agreeing to pay $1 billion over misleading statements after the 2016 fake account scandal. the settlement must still be approved by a judge. morgan stanley is weighing reduced head count in a overseas un unit it may slash 40 bankers in the asian investment bank.

one report said the unit focused on china taking the biggest hit with the deteriorating relations. and tesla is entering the final trial stages of production for a revamped version of the model 3 in china the updated version of the ev is longer and sportier than the earlier version and has a sleek erin terrier design. the report says that some production staff at the shanghai facility will require to put their phones in lockers outside the factory production lines to prevent photo leaks. >> take security to keep that information inhouse. >> we'll see >> silvana, thank you. david faber is talking to elon musk here on cnbc. back to the debt ceiling

talks. president biden meets face-to-face with kevin mccarthy to craft a spending deal to avoid a u.s. debt default. one the treasury said that could come as soon as june 1st janet yellen doubling down on the outlook of the june 1st date we have learned from past debt l limit impasses that waiting can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence and raise borrowing costs anding negatl - and negatively impact costs. let's seize if -- let's see if e heading down a similar path with isaac boltansky. >> good morning, frank >> we were talking about the credit rating being downgraded

possibly it was downgraded in 2011 and we are still at aa plus how real is this downgrade and what would another downgrade, down from aa plus, mean for the u.s. >> most folks in d.c. are hoping to get a deal. there is not mucpical in d.c. we focus on the short-term rather than long-term if you step back and think what were the foundational dynamics at play then an unstable trajectory of the fiscal standing and we had a dysfunctional political environment. both of those are present now. it is more than fair to assume this recent round of fiscal brinksmanship could lead to the downfall it adds more uncertainty to the global financial system that the u.s. dollar and debt play a

central role >> we don't want to assume you are a policy exp-ex-expert y -- expert you have experience with the scenario what is your forecast? do you expect the u.s. to be downgraded with negotiations >> my base case with this is we have agreement to kick the can past the june 1st deadline and the secretary of the treasury reaffirmed last night. that pushes the fight to september. that means prolonged fiscal brinksmanship and nonstop headline that all increases the likelihood of the downgrade given the fiscal position coupled with the political nonsense that we all have grown far to accustomed. >> you say it is a real threat

we know the x date is june 1st janet yellen emphasized that importance others say we have breathing room what is your timeline for the deal to get done what do you have to hear from the meeting today? what about the days following? what do you need to see happen for a june 1st deal to happen? >> here is how i think about it. the work over the past few days at the staff level has been to get a list of menu items the big four and the president princip n need to agree. you have seen focus on spending caps and pulling back covid funds and permitting reform and new things to dealing with entitlements and worker requirements go ahead. >> i want to bounce one other thing off you. we have to let you go in a

second there are swirling around of 11th hour hail marys how real is the possibility in your mind of those things happening? >> those are low -- all of the other ideas, 14th amendment and coin are low likelihood items. if you have to deploy those, you have done a fair amount of damage of the full faith and credit of the u.s. financial system already which would likely lead to that downgrade we talked about before. my base case is we have legislative agreement to kick the can to september which will roll everything into the annual spending bill and you have more last tti latitude >> isaac, thank you. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," home depot kicking off a busy week for retail earnings potential signals and results may reveal about the health of the american consumer.

first, as we head to break, trending stories nfl striking a one-year deal with nbc universal to carry a playoff game on peep acock this season that deal could be worth $110 million. marks the first nfl game to be shown only streaming service nearly 3.4 million americans are expected to fly during memorial day weekend this year that marks the biggest since 2005 setting up a record travel season as more people jump on the revenge travel bandwagon. martha stewart is among the swim suit models for "sports illustrated. at 81 years old, she surpasses the previous record held by onel

musk's mother last year at 74. a lot of elon musk talk today. we'll be right back. across multiple systems globally, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time... check. . ..to make quick decisions? check. aaaand check. that's the hybrid cloud solution ibm and a global bank created. what will you create? ibm. let's create.

well come back. time for the morning call sheet. we start with oppenheimer with ge healthcare with a rating of out performance $97 price tag. now to morgan stanley rein

reinstating coverage of carvana and $12 price target faster path to break even and optimistic used car environment. stock down 1% in pre-market and then upgrading gilead sciences and upgrading from $90 to $100 price target sticking with stocks, it is all about the consumer with home depot kicking off earnings which is out in 15 minutes wall street projecting sales to fall from a year ago with sentiment mixed ahead of the report due to cold weather which dampens demand for do it yourself projects. and analysts expecting softness to weigh on home depot the next guest has an increase

in home improvement trends in the coming months. liz suzuki joins us now. >> good morning, frank. >> is the softness of the housing market going to weigh on the stock? >> i think expectations going into the quarter should be kept low. if we think about the pressures that were on the home improvement sector this quarter and unfavorable weather, there was lower lumber prices and lower tax refunds. the combination of issues. you mentioned the street thinks sales is down 1.5% we think it will be worse. down 3% to 4%. we think things are getting better if we look at the data that we track and credit and debit card spending from march to april, we saw the year over year declines get better we think the comments from the

company will sound optimistic about the trend coming out of the quarter. >> we mentioned you have a long-term bullish outlook for the stock. what is your rating and price target >> we have a rating of the stock of buy we think there is something up to $360 buy. we think this is a good opportunity. when you think about high quality retailers, home depot comes to mind. shareholder return is attractive this is a company that is still growing dividend and paying out that dividend on a consistent basis and buying back its shares on a regular basis in addition to tepid earnings growth this year and recovery in the outye years as we get the hm demand as housing turnover picks up as people are stuck in the current homes because they cannot take on a higher mortgage

rate and there are not that many homes available for sale and we get the release of the housing catalysts for home improvement for 2024 and 2025. >> how does inflation play not picture with home depot and broader home improvement sector? we have seen inflation moderate a bit, but in some places, it has been sticky. how does that impact the home improvement retailers? >> we started to see prices softening in categories like appliances big ticket items in particular where the customers often use a form of financing as well. credit card or other forms those larger ticket items s pricing pressure that is where inflation is starting to come off other categories with high demand and not that much of a

pricing pressure is holding steady we think the average ticket is higher over the year and in this quarter as well. transactions are weighing down the sales growth as we get into the second half of the year, the comparisons against last year get easier on the transaction side and will start to see some of the inflation continue to moderate we think we will see a blip in the second half where transactions start to improve and average tickets start to come down. >> something to watch. home depot shares down .50% before the report coming up in a few minutes. liz, thank you ahead on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know today. j jeffrey kleintop has the latest. and reminder, if you haven't already, follow our podcast.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "wex wrap-up. the ceo of chatgpt creator is heading to capitol hill to testify before the congressional committee. today's hearing is all about a.i. and creating a framework for the a.i. development > ceos of silicon valley bank and signature bank testify on capitol hill today as well and shares the ftc challenging the amgen deal for $28 billion fo

and musk fires back to the lawsuit over jpmorgan chase and jeffery epstein. in the suit, the u.s. virgin islands believes epstein may have attempted to refer musk to jpmorgan chase as a client musk calling the request idiotic. and berkshire disclosed a stake in capital one shares up 7% and the u.s. energy department buying 3 million barrels to refill the emergency reserves. gearing up for the trading day ahead. retail sales out at 8:30 a.m. and followed by production at 9:15 home depot reports first quarter results in just a few minutes.

that's is having the annual meeting at 4:00 p.m. david faber will speak with elon musk you can watch it at 6:00 p.m and loretta mester and john williams will speak throughout the day. the shrinking debt ceiling is calling out another warning from janet yellen that is felt in the t-bills and credit default swaps those are securities of n nonp nonpayment the cost to insure the debt is higher than greece and mexico and brazil those are all countries which defaulted several times. let's bring in jeff kleintop at charles schwab. >> thank you, frank. >> let's touch on that for a minute what are you hearing from clients when it comes to the worries about the debt ceiling

what are they saying to you? what are you telling them? >> this is the number one question that we're getting. concerns about the debt ceiling showdown congress ended up raising the debt ceiling 21 times since 2000 despite each time being a headache chance of default is low for investors worried about hedging or worried about negative outcome, there are a few ideas you may want to consider for the doomsday preppers. >> i love this you come with great ideas, jeff. you have warren buffett inspired ideas. you are looking at japan you gave me an etf to look at. it is up 12% so far this year. why do you believe japan and equities have more room to run >> u.s. default would likely challenge the safe haven p status of the u.s. dollar and favor the yen.

default might spur investors to seek japanese bonds for protection they are ahead this year and pov posted a gain last night japanese stocks trade at 14 times forward earnings they are already pricing in a pessimistic outlook with the global economy i think investors could find value there in addition to the safe haven over concerns of the debt ceiling. >> as you know, jeff, we ask investors on wall street a word they believe describes the trading day ahead. what is your wex word of the day. >> my word is retail retail sales data in china and u.s. likely to show slowing momentum chinese data was softer than expected and showed a slowdown in momentum four months after

reopening. in the u.s., economists are expecting 0.2% for the month when you take out auto and gas sales at 8:30. the retail sales sets the tone for the reports from upcoming walmart and target we know consumer confidence drives 2/3 of the economy and the slowdown is not good news for those worried about the economic deeper downturn >> that might hit stocks to report later walmart and target in general, when you are looking for opportunities in the market ahead of the big debt ceiling meeting, what areas are you looking at and what do you advise clients to stay away from >> you want to stay away from equities that are focused on a return to zero interest rates. those are real excited about the fed cutting later this year. if we go into default, the fed would cut rates. i would stay away from the tech

sector and liquidity stocks. focus on quality equities. think of stocks with low price to cash flow or high dividend yields it they are doing pretty well this year. the focus on quality is important and high volatility period concerns of the companies funding. they don't have to go to the credit markets with high cash flow they are funding at the same rates from last year >> when you talk about bonds, jeff, are you looking at short-term or longer term? we hear different opinions >> you want to consider buying longer term treasuries short-term could sell off similar to 2011 where the u.s. gets another downgrade long-term rallies on the holding of the government service obligations which would lead to recession. note there is a whipsaw from

default to no default and that could be fast. trading default is nimble as you look at trading in the treasury market >> jeff, thank you that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is coming up next thanks for watching. client e? listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪

good morning futures little changed ahead of opening bell today's home depot report at any moment. whale watching new moves from titans and including a $1 billion bet on alphabet. elon musk responding after the u.s. virgin islands

subpoenaed him which is related to jeffrey epstein it is tuesday, may 16th, 2023 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. if you look at what is happening in the markets this morning, you see there are red arrows dow futures off 59 points. 69 72 we will talk about what we are seeing with earnings s&p down 5 points. nasdaq down .50% andrew and let'