it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here's your "five@5." we're looking at the stockmarket. futures are higher right now the markets anticipating some kind of deal being reached. we continue to watch that. also elon musk sat down with our david faber. he made comments about free speech against profits then, a ukraine grain deal a deadline is coming up today. we're going to tell you what that could mean for the conflict over there in ukraine and also

the global economy. also looking at retail results, we're going to show you and talk to you about what home depot's results could mean for another big retailer reporting today before the bell. it is wednesday, may 18th -- may 17th, 2023, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange. i'm frank holland. it is actually may 17th, by the way. let's take a look at the futures we saw the dow fall more than 1% looking at the futures right now, we are seeing they're green across the board at this point the dow jones would open up about 90 points hi higher the s&p and nasdaq opening slightly higher, but we also say it's early this morning the benchmark 10-year at 3.54% the 2-year yield back above 4%

at 4.10% this morning. we're keeping a close eye on the short end of the curve and the one-month yields hover around 1.5% as the debt ceiling negotiations continue. you've got to remember just one month ago it opened up at basically 4.25% a big rise here. a lot of the investors going to the short end of the bond market for safety we're also watching energy of course, oil, looking at wti, the u.s. benchmark, this morning, basically 70 bucks a barrel brent crude, the international benchmark, about 74.85 not a lot of movement in the gas market. turning now to our top story and some cautious optimism following yesterday's second round of talks between president biden and kevin mccarthy, the house speaker telling reporters the deal is not out of the

question a possible roadmap to the deal it cannot come soon enough bank of america laying out its bare case saying, quote, should any x-date breach last a month or more, it would mean immediately cutting spending by about 5% of gdp, this would turn an otherwise mild recession into a severe recession brie jackson joins us with more. good morning. >> reporter: president biden is heading to the g7 summit and he's postponing his trip to return to washington, dc, to continue debt ceiling negotiations a new sense of urgency to prevent an unprecedented and catastrophic government default, president biden cutting short his overseas trip. >> i'm postponing the australia portion of the trip and my stop in papua new guinea in order to be back for the final negotiations with congressional

leaders. >> reporter: the president's change in plans follows a second round of debt talk negotiations in the last two weeks. the administration and republicans hinting at some progress and showing agreement on at least one thing. >> we know we're not going to default. they know it, we know it. >> default is not an option. it would tip the country into a recession and cost us millions of jobs. the president simply won't allow it to happen. >> reporter: but the two sides remain far apart on two issues. >> we've got to find a way to curb our spending, raise our debt limit, and also grow our economy. >> reporter: republican demands include work requirements for federal aid programs, something democrats strongly oppose. negotiators are staring down a june 1st debt default deadline. >> we have to proceed with an urgency now in order to reach that bipartisan commonsense,

common ground agreement. >> reporter: house speaker kevin mccarthy says it's possible a deal could come by the end of the week, but there's still some work to do, so the white house appointed omb director shalanda young and adviser steve machete to continue the talks while president biden travels overseas. >> brie jackson in washington, dc. while there are continued talks, they're still a bit nervous. corporate america is picking up. it's a fourth deal for u.s. investment grade bonds there was a noted uptick in bond supply already topping the $69 billion that was priced for the entire month of april. let's get more on this with

courtney garcia at payne management and a cnbc contributor. good morning good to have you. >> bright and early. >> i don't know about that, but it's good to have you. we're seeing that bond deal with pfizer we're seeing it track higher this month than last month we look at corporate trends. up half a percent to 1%. what's your view on corporate bonds? do you see an upside for the second half of the year? >> bonds, we were going to have our investors lease a portion of bonds. you do want to make sure you have that piece of safety built in or if there's something unexpected or a recession later in the year, you can use that as a rebalancing tool to buy back into the markets even certificates of deposit are paying better than treasuries right now as opposed to corporate bonds at least for

individual investors because there is that additional risk. corporate bonds are going to be more volatile. if it's protection in your portfolio, that's what you want to have in place. >> i think you're leading me to my next question we have this risk. what are you advising your clients to do to protect your portfolios in what's really a volatile time right now? >> that's where treasuries and certificates of deposit are what you're reaching for. i'm not saying you have to, but have a piece of that in your portfolio, so we're very optimistic you're going to want to be invested for that upswing. that being said, when we look at bon bonds, you're looking shorter term this is where i would caution investors. unless it's money you're going to be needing in the next couple of months, i would look a little

longer on the curve, a year perhaps real estate than three months out we're at a peak with interest rates. if interest rates come down, you're going to have that reinvestment risk. i would look at building a ladder, but i would not go too short term here. >> what do you think about mega cap tech we're seeing a run-up, qqqs up year to date. >> your apples, your googles, mosts, amazons, that's what's over 80% of that return to date is there's a high concentration there. the earnings per share growth over the next several years are expected to be a lot slower than it was over the last decade. this is something i've been cautioning investors, do not be overweighted in tech rates it's something that's going to be growi ing slower

especially a lot of investors might be investing in etfs and mutual funds if you invest in the s&p 500, you're going to be overexposed to this. 80% to 90% of people who come to me don't realize they're way overexposed. keep that in mind. >> what's the alternative? give us a different look. >> we're definitely favoring value over growth. so think of your health care sector that's been having an earning per share growth about 12% since the mid-1980s with the asian population likely to benefit those are your development companies who are favored over growth international is undervalued over the u.s. which is another great opportunity. there are sectors still of great value. >> courtney garcia, always great to have you.

>> thanks for having me. turning to elon musk in what was a wide-ranging interview with our own david faye bore, speak of bright and early -- you've definitely got the bright part right silvana henao has more >> the conversation ranged from the artificial intelligence to the federal reserve. but it was his comments about free speech and sales that's turning heads this morning. >> well, yes, but i mean honestly, you know, some of these conspiracy theories have turned out to be true. >> which ones? >> well, like the hunter/biden laptop. >> that's true >> yeah. so, you know, that was a pretty big deal there were others who engaged in

active suppression. >> how do you make a choice to engage even today you tweeted this thing about george soros i'm looking for it because i want to make sure i quote it properly you know what it says he says he wants to rule hand hates humanity. >> that's my opinion. >> why share it? why share it when people who buy teslas may not agree with you. advertisers on twitter may not agree with you why can't you tell me, talk with your friends over there, but why share it widely? >> freedom of speech i'm allowed to say what i want. >> you absolutely are, but i'm trying to understand why you are. it puts you in the middle of the partisan divide in the country

it make use a lightning rod for criticism. i mean do you like that? people today saying he's an anti-semite. >> no. i'm like a pro-sem mite >> i believe that. >> i don't want to make this a george soros interview. >> no. god no it even came up in your annual meeting. do your tweets, hurt the company. there are those who say i don't agree with his position. i know it because he shares so much or there are advertisers on twitter and linda comes to you and says, you've got to stop or i can't get these ads because of some of the things you tweet >> you know, i'm reminded of the

scene in "the princess bride." great movie. >> great movie. >> where he confronts the person who killed his father, and he says, offer me money, offer me power, i don't care. >> so you just don't care. you want to share what you have to say. >> i'll say what i want to say, and if the consequence of that is losing money, so be it. >> other key takeaways, musk says the federal reserve is too slow he calls artificial intelligence a double-ended sword, one that can usher in an age of abundance and also destroy humanity,

saying openai would not exist if it weren't for him he said tesla is the only company sells cars right now that are capable of full autonomous driving, which should put their value at roughly five times the average car. be sure to catch the entire interview on cnbc.com. frank? >> silvana henao, great to see you on the show. a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange" including one word investors have to know today, but first why stubborn sellers may be holding back the normally red-hot spring housing market plus much more from elon musk and his powerful comments on speech over profits and the debt ceiling deal. and a key deal that's about to skpiert that could affect an already fragile economy.

more business ahead. stay with us with two max-strength pain relievers, so you can rise from pain like a pro. icy hot pro. asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - are you a certified financial planner™? - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. give your small business one tech solution

that checks all the boxes. it's all here with the comcast business complete connectivity solution. peace of mind with cyberthreat security. the power of the largest, fastest reliable network. plus, save up to 75% a year with comcast business mobile. the complete connectivity solution. from the company powered by the next generation 10g network. get started for just $49 a month. and ask about an $800 prepaid card. comcast business. powering possibilities™.

all right. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." investors are awaiting key figures that includes mortgage starts and mortgage applications despite a resilient consumer, the pressure remains, mortgage rates. 85% of mortgage holders are locked in with rates below 5%, making them unwilling to sell

their home or buy a new one at today's elevated rates joining me now is erin seitz erin, good morning always great to see you. >> i'm good morning >> i'm one of those at 85% i can't imagine. how does that impact prices? zillow says they're forecasting prices for homes to go up 5% this year. do you agree or disagree >> no, i think that zillow is so off base here, and it's really not surprising because we saw zillow shutter their ibuying division because their algorithm pricing was so off we is saw zillow sell his own home compared to where he was projecting i have a unique role with being

the chief economist but also selling in five different markets, the hottest markets in the united states. so what i see going on now is we've seen jerome powell say we're going to be here that means not touching on but being there for two or three months have the debt ceiling conversation, bank failures, et cetera we have a lot of trepidation in the market i don't see mortgage rates going anywhere any time soon i don't think they're going to get tremendously higher, but i don't see them getting any lower. i think we're here that's what buyers are seeing. we didn't see a lot in the beginning of the year. we saw basically a frozen market, unrealistic sellers and

buyers facing much higher costs. >> i think kind of a harsh truth. okay coming up later today, we have a few data points. housing starts later if you talk to people investing and consumers, people who want to buy a house, what will the reports tell us? >> housing starts are going to be swayed by multi-family again. it's been this way it's not new by any means. basically the american dream was to own four walls and a roof, and now that american dream has shifted to potentially owning condos or potentially owning a town home or unfortunately getting in a perpetual rental cycle. i think we're going to see more of the same here we need more single-family homes in the united states when we talk about housing shortage, we're not talking about general housing shortage we're talking single-family housing shortages. there are tons you can trade

into in less desirable markets i think that's a pretty nuanced conversation a lot of people don't bring up that asterisk. i think we're going to see some consistency here they're not pulling the trigger right now because there's not a lot of return on their investment it's still expensive to build and product is not moving quickly. >> erin sykes from net seekers always appreciate your insight. coming up, why home depot's rough quarter could spell trouble for another retailer set to report before the opening bell today

with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector

diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. all right. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the clock is ticking on an international agreement that guarantees the food security for tens of millions of people around the world tomorrow a deal brokered by turkey, the black sea grain initiative between russia and ukraine, it's set to expire. if it doesing it would halt ukraine exports and impact an already fragile global economy amanda joins me. good morning. >> good morning. it's official. the last ship has left the port unless they can extend the deal. the deal was brokered back in july, and it was incredible because russia and ukraine were already five months into the war when they decided to open three ukrainian ports, and help create

a humanitarian sea corridor so agriculture could run from ukraine to the black sea so far we're running up to the 11th hour. >> certainly something to watch. we know you for your reporting on the pentagon and reporting throughout the ukrainian war what does this mean in the context of this conflict >> well, frank, this is -- whey mentioned earlier is this is remarkable because before russian troops poured over to the ukraine borders, they were the bread basket before you decide how we ease off of a blockade and maintain a sea corridor for product is significant especially when you have a brutal conflict that's raging with allegations of international war crimes and crimes against humanity.

>> what are the sticking points to this agreement? >> last month russia's top diplomat was there and said this is not the agreement we decided on in july of last year and we no longer have to abide by it. that's why we we're at this may 18th didline russia wants a very specific bank reconnected to the swift financial network. they claim the deal is completely one-side and ukraine gets the entire benefit of it. they would like to see russian ammoomonium to flow through the pipeline under the black sea these are things that were reported to the u.n. last month. >> that kind of spells out why russia wants out of the deal let's say this deal expires and doesn't continue what does it mean in terms of the conflict and the people.

tens of millions are depending on this export. >> yes, it's a super great point. a lot of this agriculture goes to the world's most hungriest countries, and we're coming off of the end of a covid-19 pandemic and supply chain logistics issues some who have been pushed to the brink of famine have had this life-saving deal come through and provide these kinds of products for them. so we're looking at a rise in what the u.s. is calling a weaponization of commodities that started out in trying to freeze ukraine and now it's turned over to food which every country tlooivs on. >> we have your story on cnbc.com thank you very much. as we head to break, shares of s&p pop on raced revenue outlook. that optimistic projection. >> tech is more vel rant than

ever, so no matter if the company needs to copy from the business model or resilience of the supply chain or we talk about wanting a sustainable business, this is dependent on s&p. and you saw our announcement around ai today and that leads us to the ambition we can further acceleration our total acceleration quotes in the years to come. , what if you partner with ibm and red hat, use a hybrid cloud solution to connect data across multiple systems globally, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time... check. . ..to make quick decisions? check. aaaand check. that's the hybrid cloud solution ibm and a global bank created. what will you create? ibm. let's create.

millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. what will you create? that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, get the best price for two lines of unlimited.

just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. and get the best price for 2 lines of unlimted. visit xfinitymobile.com today. it's around 5:30 in the new

york city area here's what's on tap we look at target's latest results and whether home depot is triggering what the broader sector is doing. and elon muvg, we'll tell you what investors are saying. he's not concerned with losing money. ubs out with new figures on the multi-billion-dollar financial hit it's expected to take with its credit suisse takeover it's wednesday, may 17th, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc hope your wednesday morning is getting off to a great start. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's check on the u.s. stock futures. they're in the green the dow jones opened up 90 points higher, but it's early.

the s&p and nasdaq up fractionally as well the bond market up a tick. the 2-year back up about 4%, moving ten basis points higher from yesterday's show and we look at the curve as the debt ceiling talks continue that's where all the action is a month ago it was at 4.25%. we're seeing the 2-month, 6-month. the 1-year just a tick under 5%. oil, 70 bucks a barrel. time for a check on the early trade over in europe our julianna tatelbaum is standing by in the london newsroom with the action over there.

julianna. >> frank, good morning here in europe, sentiment is a little more downbeat than what you're seeing in the u.s. futures. we do have some red. the ftse trading down. the swiss market down. the cac market also trading below the line the ftse 100 has been floating between gains and losses throughout the morning there's a lot of dispersion between the individual movers. this is from a sector perspective. we've got basic resources. real estate and financial services at the bottom we've got aegon right at the top. we hope to get you a picture of that there you got a glimpse of it. aegon trading strongly the swiss, a softening forecast there. investors were concerned about what they learned from the luxury watch group. >> julianna, we also have some

big corporate movers, meanly siemens and ubs. >> we certainly do, frank. siemens is the big reason why the german market is outperforming this morning siemens hiked its four-year outlook. the german industrial conglomerate posted a net profit of 3.6 billion euros earlier this morning rowland busch told us supply chain problems are easing. in the u.s. the bank sees the financial hit from its credit suisse takeover coming to around $17 billion but characterized the discount on its purchase of the failing lender as a, quote, negative good will gaen of just under $35. it could be subject to material changes. when that estimate, they're looking at $4 billion in litigation and other costs stocks are resilient, the shares

are fractionally higher. we're keeping a close eye on target which reports fiscal earnings next hour the street focused this after home depot posted its worst revenue miss in more than 20 years yesterday and lowered its forecast which could be an omen for the sector target gave an outlook yesterday. they're warning its margin rate likely will notreturn to prepandemic levels until next fiscal year. let's talk with michael baker, senior research analyst. great to have you here this morning. >> hi, frank thanks for having me. >> let's talk about target for a minute is home depot a possible read-through on what to expect from target? the larger of the sales are discretionary. only 20% of groceries compared to walmart which is 50%.

are you worried or are investors seeing that home depot is going to bleed through >> some of them are a read-through it was weather it was housing weakness. but then also it was weaker consumer demand in general, and i do think that will impact target we saw that with the retail sales that came out yesterday that were up sequentially but are declining on a year over year sales the good news is we think that's largely in the estimates they guided pretty conservatively for the year and the estimates are pretty conservative for the first quarter. let's also remember that as bad as home depot's report was yesterday, the stock was down maybe a percent. the market seemed to already anticipate it quite a bit. >> fair enough give us a sense when it comes to

what you're thinking with target >> we have a buy rating. the reason is it's about cycling what can only be described as a debacle last year. they were really the poster child of that over inventory position that's now behind us their margins were in the 3% range. in the years prior to the pandemic, they never lowered under 5% last year they were 3% because of all the markdowns they had to take our view is that they will climb back to that prepandemic range somewhere in the 5% to 6% range as you said over the next 24 months, but they've got to climb toward that area this year above 3.3%, which is where they were last year. so when you do the math, they're going to end up having a highest profit growth of any of the retailers we cover nonetheless, their profit is going to grow this year. >> very interesting.

by the way, for your viewers, there's about a 25% upside from where target is trading right now. we're going to show the different segments of target's business beauty and household, 20% grocery, 21% home furnishingings, 18% electronics and toys potentially where would the weakness be and the strength >> the strength would be grocery and also beauty. estee lauder missed, but that was overseas domestically their business was very strong. target's partnership with ulta is very strong the weakness will be home furnishings. some of the retail sales, the home furnishings sector is really weak. toys hasn't been a great area. it's toy time. we have until december to work that out

but it's an area that won't be as strong as we think. >> is target the bellwether? should we take what we hear from target today and use it for other earnings like tjx and walmart coming up? >> they're $100 billion retailers. they matter. target, walmart, home depot, costco we think the overall theme will be slowing retail sales beginning this year and going into the back half of the year our estimates are for sales to grow at the smallest rates since 2008, the great recession. we think margins will recover. supply chain costs are not as big a headwind as they were a year ago to me it's going to be the inventory glut that's largely behind us they're cycling the massive

markdowns they took a year ago and that shouldn't repeat in 2023. target ahead in the premarket right now. michael baker, thank you for being here. coming up on "worldwide exchange," elon musk, more of his wide-ranging exclusive conversation with our own david faye bore and the key factor that musk says when it comes to being competitive and market value. much more in a moment.

♪ these are the people, who help you stay well. ♪ ♪ searching lower prices, ♪ ♪ and brands you love on the shelves. ♪ behind the counter, or in the aisles, healthier's better when it happens together. cvs pharmacy. healthier happens together. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

♪♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

back to "worldwide exchange." a market flash and a look at regional banks western alliance leaving a number of banks behind as its deposits have grown by more than $2 billion since the end of the previous quarter they swept up during the march turmoil following the collapse of several other lenders western alliance up more than 10%. pacwest up around 5% z zions bancorp up by 24%. we look at the ratings of barclays upgrades. they're citing mack cow fundamentals that have move aid head of shares while las vegas is more likely resilient than appreciates. shares of wynn up 2.5%.

evgo is expecting to capitalize on robust ev sales over the nex decade tesla shares are up almost a ha 2.25%. david faye bore sat down with elon musk to talk about what he believes issed a van tanks to owning a tesla. >> the value of a fully autonomous car is, we think, perhaps five times more valuable than a nonautonomous car.

>> why >> well, the utility of a car, typically a tesla car is going to be ten hour as week. >> all right joining me now to discuss those comments and much more about tesla, raig, great to have you here. >> thank you. >> elon musk says a tesla with autonomous cables is five times more valuable than a potential car. is that true >> if it's true and you push a button and it can take you never, he could be right but let's look at the reality. a number of drivers report significant false braking, false apparitions that cause significant malfunctions those are really what cause the accidents in these vehicles.

they can't work on all systems on all roads the technology experts i speak to say they need many more cameras and include black and white and color systems on the vehicles to bring an element of safety that would make the mass market valuable. i love his vision, but i'm a skeptic. i think it's maybe a little aggressive but he has a history of being aggressive. >> he said teslas in general could be on pace for a chatgpt mo moment >> the ev market is still going to be a function of battery prices, right? battery prices need to keep coming down. we need to see better fast charging, better infrastructure charging out there, and this doesn't happen overnight the million-mile battery hasn't been talked about for a while, but it's being aggressively developed by several different

companies. if someone was to have a breakthrough, yeah, we would have a massive break, ev over ice, no question. >> let's talk about the stock and the company. shares pretty flat since he bought twitter, and also yesterday he basically said i want to say what i want to say and i'm not worried about profits. what do you think that says to investors? >> oh, boy twitter, the benefit of him hiring a ceo, this was anticipated. there was chatter out there he was talking to former ceos of twitter coming back. where we are now, he really needs to execute he needs margins to work the momentum is going to stay negative there are still a few dozen evs that will come to the market that's going to be tough to navigate around. that's why it doesn't have much of an impact on the stock. what's going to be the big delta for the next couple of years is whether or not his module

manufacturing approach actually works or whether he thinks he can cut that in half that's something i'm working with due diligence if i get my bearish position wrong, it will be for that i don't think it's going to be easy to turn around the margin story, you know. the issues with fsd are tough to solve. they'll continue to be tough to solve for a long time. >> yes or no question. cyber forecast, do you believe the truck will be available? >> who's going to buy a two-wheel drive truck? these are very expensive trucks. i love the con sect. it's very mad max, but, you know -- >> i think your original laugh told the whole story about what you think. all right, craig irwin, we have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much. for more of david faber's

sitdown with elon musk and the wide-ranging conversation head to cnbc.com. ahead, the one word every investor needs to know today veritas's own on what needs to take shape if you missed "worldwide exchange," check us out on podcasts and cnbc is celebrating asian american/pacific islander month. here is manish. >> where i grew up, asia has the largest population you have to distinguish yourself and stand out is working hard and carving out a place for

yourself is something i learned very early

all right, welcome back to "worldwide exchange. six stories you need to know before opening bell. president biden shornting his overseas trip next week to focus on the debt ceiling deadline it includes canceled trips to papua new guinea sandeep mathrani is stepping down he was ceo of wework looking at shores, they're down 2%. and elizabeth holmes requests to remain out of prison while she tries to overturn her conviction they were ordered to pay $450 million to the company's victims. we're watching the shares of the container store.

their sales are declining and they plan to lay off 15% of its work force. shell will use ai technology to boost offshore output. and the world wresting and endeavor getting a new name. it will be under the ticker tko. we're gearing up for the trading day ahead. we get weekly mortgage applications at 7:00 a.m. eastern. then at 8:30 it's april housing starts and building permits. for earnings, we get reports from target, cisco systems and t t 2. then we get reports from the banks. looking at clawing back

after slipping into the red following yesterday's losses with the dow again erasing its year-to-date gains, the nasdaq is leading by 18.3%, its widest performance of outperformance since 1991, according to dow jones market data. for more on that and the trading day ahead, let's bring in greg branch, a cnbc contributor always great to see you. let's jump right into it what do you think of the nasdaq and its big performance? >> the narrowing breadth is something i've anticipated not to dismiss there's a powerful tailwind with ai, but at the end of the day, we have to start questioning how to stretch the valuation. we're starting to do that. we're starting to see the markets recognize or at least acknowledge this debt ceiling debate or conundrum doesn't end well i'm still hopeful we have a

2011-type resolution which i identified as our best-case scenario. >> i think a lot of people are worried about not only the impact on the u.s. economy but the global economy with all that uncertainty in mind, i want to ask you. what's your wecht word of the day? >> my w.e.x. word of the day is capitulation in 2011 we saw the markets trade off 20%. i think we should expect something similar here the difference here is in 2011 i think the expectation is both sides did not want a default it was to be avoided at all costs. we knew we could have an agreement reached. i don't think we have that here. they're not only saying this would be unfortunate but saying it as an end to be aimed for, that it would be understandable,

that it would be rational. as long as one of the loudest voices is talking about it in the loudest terms, we have to assume there will be some form of default. >> i want to talk about what you're doing or advising your clients to do when it comes to portfolio protection. >> if that is a possibility, which i think we large loi thought it was in 2011, our best case-scenario is a 20% climb in the markets. if that's what we're expecting, the safe haven will not be tech. they'll probably be more resilient than anything else, but the safe haven is short duration fixed income. i believe it will provide an opportunity later in the year as to consensus rationalizes what 2024 looks like.

with 245 for the s&p, i don't think this is anticipating what will be caused by a fed action at the end of the day, we want to get through this debt ceiling crisis i'm trying not to be inflammatory. >> you're not inflammatory, greg you're appreciated, but we've got to end it there. greg branch from veritas also great to see you. that will do it for "worldwide exchange. we've got "squawk box" next. thanks for watching. causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. aany questions?dy -yeah, i got one. how about the best network imaginable? let's invent that.

that's what we do here. quick survey. who wants the internet to work, pretty much everywhere. and it needs to smooth, like super, super, super, super smooth. hey, should you be drinking that? -it's decaf. because we're busy women. we don't have time for lag or buffering. who doesn't want internet that helps a.i. do your homework even faster. come again. -sorry, what was that? introducing the next generation 10g network only from xfinity. the future starts now.

good morning, stocks are up. we'll bring you quarterly results from target. the market is up even as these debt ceiling talks --

tough to say, tough to handicap. there they are president biden met with the big four on the debt ceiling yesterday. we'll bring you interview this morning with two out of the four, speaker mccarthy and house minority leader hakeem jeffries. plus, elon musk speaking to cnbc we'll show you his comments on tesla, twitter, ai, and presidential politics. it's may 17th, 2023. 30 days in may when's june 1st? it's like 14 days. we've got two weeks to do this "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ro