>> there were no crypto investors bidding against mr. moses. great to see that people will be able to see this in the public, the most complete, oldest hebrew bible. thanks for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with debt ceiling deal hopes the strong move in stocks we're witnessing at this moment. cyclical areas like bank, industrials are lifting the dow today. a broad-based move across every se sector small caps are getting a much-needed boost, nearly 2% for the russell.

leads us that to talk of the tape, finally, is it going to happen let's ask cheryl young out here from the west coast. great to see you in person is that what this move in the markets you feel is about, hopes of a debt ceiling deal >> absolutely. everyone is realizing the politicians cannot commit police call suicide we view this as opportunity. if there's more volatility, hopefully it's the end of it we have another two weeks to go. >> what about if we can finally get out of this range? we've been looking at the potential catalysts for that is this one? >> i think maybe not yet the s&p is where it was in april of 2021. we're two years in a sideways market. >> we're tired of being in a

sideways market. >> trust me, my clients are as well this is a market where you have to be selective, patient and defensive. that's what our chief investment officers reiterated this morning. the broad market, i think there's still some ink ahead. >> does the fact that we've been narrow in terms of mega cap leadership, does that make you more cautious? >> absolutely. this is the most narrow range we've ever seen in stocks. t if you look at an equal-rated index, it's negative .17 as of a few minutes ago year to date we're seeing a few stocks move and drive momentum, but it causes a lot of concern that the rest of the markets have not

rallied with these mega cap names. >> i hear both sides of that debate, that it's not necessarily as negative as some want to point out. those stocks are carrying the market they are the biggest by market cap for a variety of reasons earnings power, balance sheet, cash flow, et cetera, ai right? >> ai, we love ai. >> does it have to be as negative >> i hope not. i've been more positive. in january i said it was a time to double down on the mega caps. i'm still a believer in silicon valley i have clients who work in these companies and they're wicked smart people we've seen the advancement in ai this is all over the news with congress testimony yesterday by sam altman and several of his peers. there are a lot of areas that

have upside ahead, especially in the technology sector. what worries me is we have a money supply that has declined year over year 4.1%. we have the commercial real estate market, a trillion coming due in adjustable rate mortgages. i don't think we're out of the woods yet of potential recession. however, i think it's the time to own stock i would add defense to protect the downside that will allow some to stay invested what i'm advising my climates to do is be selective about the names you're choosing. >> you're in silicon valley, the epicenter of where the banking crisis started with silicon valley bank. do you think there's more significant issues to come as it relates to banks

>> i hope not. the banks are well capitalized. >> the large banks are. >> the large banks are we've seen a walk away from banks where depositors are leaving and heading to the larger banks my office has been opening up a lot of accounts for treasuries because clients are looking for a safe haven it's a concern and especially around some of the clients that work with silicon valley bank. these companies were depending not just on their deposits, but loans. that's an area you have to watch. >> what do you make of the fact that -- this week alone, paul tudor jones, noted that something is going on. the market has been resilient. he thinks stocks are going to go higher steve cohen, the famed steve

cohen, is bullish. >> we talked about this morning that call. >> maybe people are too negative the negatives are so easy to point out and that's why everybody does there's reason to be cautious. i'm not suggesting that everybody should be bullish, but maybe people are too negative. >> i think you have to remain optimistic for the long term if i think about what is going into stock research and where we see some of the interesting areas, i think that there is a lot of negativity for good reason at the same time we're seeing a lot of stocks rally despite the negative news. look at some of these mega cap names and their earnings were de declining year over year, but they beat estimates. if company beat those estimates, there could be tremendous

upsides on stocks. >> look at target, for example, the earnings were all right. the outlook wasn't great yet the stock is rallying 2.5% those are the things people look for to say something is going on here whereas that stock may have every reason to trade lower and it's not >> i think overall people want to make money. we have to really navigate the cycles in this market. again, i am long in my own portfolio i have very little cash. my money is put to work. i have puts going through october right now just to -- >> so you're hedged. >> i'm hedged. >> i've talked to financial advisers like yourself who are in piles of cash. >> i know. we're crushing them. it's great >> that's why you're one of the highest rated ones let's bring in cameron dawson.

somebody who has been cautious, have you changed >> we've seen this market stuck in a range in our cautiousness we expressed it through focusing on quality. we're saying that we don't think that names who have high leverage is where we want to be in this environment. in a tight liquidity environment you want to stay in those high-quality names. >> what do you make of the debt ceiling issue as it remains in the market do you think this move is optimism around that and can that bust us out of the range? >> i think the debt ceiling talk -- when the treasury is

spending down its cash balance, the end result is that it adds liquidity. it's one of the reasons why growth stocks, technology stocks have been up year to date. one of the reasons when we get past the debt ceiling the treasury will issue new bonds and that will have the effect of taking liquidity out of the market. >> we heard that a day or two on this show. it's a form of de facto tightening. >> yeah. this has offset quantitative tightening >> mega cap text is not speculative. do you see that continuing, money is going to continue to flow there and, if it does, is that a negative or not >> the fact that large cap growth is outperforming at the end of a cycle is very normal.

when growth gets scarce people flood into the area where they feel confidence they can get growth the fact that large cap growth is outperforming is more late cycle than early cycle it does make us nervous that the area is getting narrower, because if one or two stumble, it's bad for the markets >> so let's then discuss with both of you what breaks you out of your cautious range what do you need to see? what is it >> i think you need to see demand pick up when you look at the debt level for consumers, we just crossed $17 trillion in credit card debt we've seen

rates go up. you have to have demand remain strong i do think there's this post covid effect where people are so sick of being at home. they want to travel. we're not seeing decrease in people spending money in airlines, staying in hotels. i don't see how that continues. >> it may not continue at the current rate, but it doesn't mean it's going to drop off a cliff. >> i don't think it will when i talk to client, they're saying i'm going on this trip even though it's costing this much. >> isn't that bullish? >> you can argue that's bullish or is it a wake-up call that's yet to happen? >> that's the debate what's already happened and what might still. >> as concerned as we are about growth, we're seeing growth react sell rate. look at housing sales, retail

sales, there are signs that things are holding to your point on the consumer, as long as they have jobs, they're going to spend money when we look at debt balances, it's below 2019 levels yes, we have higher debt, but overall consumer balance sheets are still okay >> what happens if growth as a result of demand remains strong enough, at the same time inflation continues to come down >> that's great for the markets. >> how likely is that scenario doesn't sound to me like it's that outlandish to suggest. >> i would love to see the feds use artificial intelligence in making their decisions. >> they should use ai the whole time and they would have started raising things earlier and we would be done. >> i get concerned we have

people in power not using metrics that are in my opinion up to date technology. using these lagging indicators to make decisions is scary for me can we get that balance right? i think if the fed remains softer the rest of the year things could turn out okay. >> you think the fed is going to cut? >> no. >> you don't see it not this year >> not this year >> not many do. >> the bond market does. >> at some point we'll have to have a fight and somebody is going to win. >> we've seen that fight multiple times it happened in february. it happened last summer where we saw the bond market price in a pivot that never materialize because inflation remains higher and demand remains stronger. our biggest question is if inflation moderates toward 3%, but demand remains strong, is that enough for the fed to cut wouldn't they risk inflation coming back?

>> forget cut. are they done? >> i think they have to be done. you know, the cracks in the systemshown with banking there's cracks in the system and i think the feds are listening to that. i'm hoping they're done. >> you think they're done? >> i think june is now a live meeting. >> why >> we've seen the probability of a june hike go from negative 5% back a few weeks ago, meaning a little cut, to up about 30% on the back of this stronger data if you listen to the fed speak, there's been a lot more talk about demand meaning they need to see demand move lower i would put it closer to a 50/50 chance. >> 50/50, that high? >> yeah. >> wow it's going to be interesting, especially if the data remains okay it hasn't been horrible. >> they will be data dependent if inflation comes in later, then that probability will drop. >> if you're both cautious and

you think there might be a pullback to take advantage of, how much i've had ranges. people said 3,500. we could go back to october lows what do you think? >> i don't think we see october lows if we dip back that much it's very temporary the resilience among stocks is there for a reason we're not seeing changes in demand i would watch how strong the dollar is. i would be watching u.s. and overseas spending. we're a global economy there's a lot to be said about having a strong dollar to your point, if you look at the treasury general account, this is really a reduction of liquidity going back into the season. >> what do you think >> i think the downside is dependent on a recession the pastimes the fed paused and

there was no recession markets went to the moon add the liquidity and no risk to earnings if we have a recession and the timing of that remans a huge question mark, that's where we need to mark down estimates and that's how we'll judge if the next stop is 3,800 or 3,600. it all depends on the recession call. >> if there's no recession -- the fed at some point is going to cut rates it's not going to stay at 5% no recession fed cuts at some point inflation comes down enough. not many people are planning on that don't you think? >> that's why i like being long in stocks and buying puts. >> in that scenario, it's very unlikely the fed cutting into a full employment economy seems un unlikely. >> enjoyed it very much. thank you both for being here.

see you soon. let's get to our twitter question will the s&p hit 4,300 or higher if a debt ceiling agreement is reached? head to twitter to vote. we're just getting started up next, trading tesla elon musk sat down with our david faber. we'll get reaction from a tesla shareholder after a break. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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about 40 minutes to go in the trading day. let's get a tip on top stocks. kristina partsinevelos is back with that. kristina >> reporter: let's start with go shares tanking right now, down 18% at the moment. the money raised from the sale of $125 million of new class a shares will go towards the charging network they want to get to 4,000 by year end it's classic dilution. existing shareholders will own a little less of the company western alliance is leading the regional banks, up about 11% after it said deposit growth grew beyond $2 billion that was as of may 12th, up from $1.8 billion pacwest and co-america are up slightly. tesla ceo elon musk spoke to

david faber where they talked about everything from ai to the fed. listen. >> do your tweets hurt the company? are there tesla owners who say i don't agree with his political positions or there are advisers on twitter and your ad execs say i can't get these ads because of what you tweet >> you know, i'm reminded of a scene in "the princess bride," great movie, where he confronts the person that killed his father and he says, offer me

money, offer me power, i don't care >> so you just don't care? you want to share what you have to say >> i'll say what i want to say if the consequence of that is losing money, so be it >> joining us now bryn talkington, tesla shareholder. musk makes it clear to david he doesn't care do you care? >> well, i mean, i've seen the movie. i think david missed the point what he was saying -- in the movie it's all about staying convicted to one's personal beliefs. as we've all seen, elon cares a tremendous amount about free speech he uses free speech and thinks

twitter should be a platform for free speech. he felt so strongly about that he had to sell millions of shares to buy it he's saying i'm willing to sacrifice personal and economic gains in order to protect my own personal beliefs that i believe so heartedly in. that being said, he believes in making money and that's why he hired an expert in advertising i don't think it's not that he cares. i think he cares so much about his strong viewpoints about free speech. >> sure, but i don't think david missed the point at all. that's all fine and good what you say and what musk himself suts s s suggests, but he's still the ceo of a publicly traded company and you have to decide whether it's bothersome to you or a

distraction or frankly anything else. >> i don't think that an aggregate tesla shareholders were or have been concerned by him expressing his opinion i think what happened last year is when, you know, he says -- maybe in jest i'm going to buy twitter and then he has to buy twitter. then it's like is this going to happen will there be a court case how many shares does he have to sell the stock bottomed out at 110 and got as high as 200 he's proven he can walk and chew gum at the same time he's running five different companies and has a great team underneath him i don't think shareholders would say him tweeting is a distraction to what he's been able to do globally.

>> you don't care -- we can say ceos expressing political beliefs, for example, i'm not sure has ever been as under fire as it appears to be now in some corners of the political space and whether it's a couple corners, some on the left and some on the right. do you not have an issue with anything that the ceo of a company you invest it could tweet about? >> well, of course you know, of course. there's a moral high ground and a way you want certain ceos to act. elon is not just a ceo he created these companies i mean, he took tesla, which was not doing well back in the early 2000, took over and made it into one of the most important companies in the world you have to separate a founder ceo that's so rare like elon, which is like a steve jobs, like a thomas edison, from just some

person that's a ceo that's not the founder of a company once again, elon is a lightning rod. he's a brilliant, opinionated person who speaks his mind he's an important person and it's an important company that we have in america, i'm from protepr tesla, very pro elon. >> what do you think about his seeming willingness for advertising as it relates to tesla? >> we'll see, right? they haven't needed to advertise before, but i think it's becoming so much more competitive. he was the only player out there before now you have every single who can coming into that space

he's so dominant on twitter and every other platform i bet millions of people watched david's interview yesterday. he's captivating and people want to hear what he has to say he's the best commercial for tesla. >> bryn, thank you so much see you soon. up next, breaking down big opportunities. goldman sachs' luke barr joins me here. "closing bell" right back. here's to getting financially ready for anything! and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?! ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪

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welcome back. tech continuing its climb higher today. the xlk hitting a 52-week high my next guest says there could be more upside for that sector joining me now is luke barr. good to see you. >> hi, scott. >> you must be reasonably

positive on the market if i look at what you think people should be doing within it semis, software, advertising, small caps have i characterized that right? >> that's absolutely right look at the market today we're not saying returns are going to be great going forward. we're saying pockets of the market offer great bang. when we think of the tech ecosystem, as much as there's anxiety over the recession -- we can get these great businesses right now in the market. >> do you think that this move today is in part optimism around a deal >> i think in the short term that's what the market is looking at the market stayed fairly flatten with some of the anxiety we've seen we're saying taking a longer term view the market is

misjudging the -- you mentioned semis. great case in point. it's foundational to many of the major tech innovation themes we see, whether ai, information technologies for us, if we can find those businesses that have a unique capability that's being traded in a way that reflects last year's environment, but with the certainty we have today, it's very different. >> the house view at goldman sachs was articulated well today, but it was pretty cautious 1 in 3 chances of recession. do you not share those views >> 1 in 3, that's two thirds in our favor. when we think about the pockets of the market we're looking at, that can be significant stock level output. >> you think this ai run has a little more room to go it's all the rage.

it's what everybody continues to talk about even as valuations have gotten more elevated, how do you address that? >> ai, transformational theme, probably the biggest since we've seen the development of the internet where we're starting from today, you have to be thoughtful how you take exposure there. take microsoft, the pricing model in microsoft is avoiding co mod advertising that ai capability when we look at the picks and shovels, it's the semi cap equipment businesses benefitting from that transition to ai. >> can we talk small caps? i feel like it's the most controversial part of your view.

if you think there's a 1 in 3 chance of recession, if you think returns are going to be somewhat muted and this overhang of recession fear is going to be with us for at minimum the near term, how do small caps work in that environment >> let's remember, we had 10 to 12 years of small caps underpinnings. these things tend to go in 10 to 12 year cycles the russell 2000, to the s&p 500, the long-term average is 7% let's think about industrialization, who are the beneficiaries? some of those construction commodity businesses, that's in your small cap universe. bio cap has been beat up for years. we understand why.

this is a point in time where technology, precision medicine, therapeutic decisions is transformation al. >> what would you stay away from >> we're cautious on the regional banks for obvious reasons. we think the regulatory environment is going to be higher when we look at the larger cap technology space, there's some optimism that isn't be translated into the smaller caps >> obviously the regionals have a high weighting in the russell 2000 you can like pockets of small caps without liking regionals. >> stock dispersion is the key theme here more of the small cap growth technology, technology hardware businesses, the industrial businesses, that's an interesting part of the story. >> good having you here. luke barr, goldman sachs.

up next, we're tracking the bus biggest movers, kristina partsinevelos is back. >> reporter: viva las vegas. could this be the start of wynn's stock rally i'll explain after the break

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20 to go until the closing bell let's get back to kristina partsinevelos for the stocks she's watching. >> reporter: wynn shares, they're higher after analysts upgraded the stock saying the best is yet to come. they raised their price target to $135 from $120. growth in macaw is fueling optimism they're trading up almost 6% barclay is pointing out the new professional sports team in las vegas could be a boost. wework shares hit a new low after their real estate space change was downgraded. >> brutal. kristina, thank you. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question

we asked will the s&p 500 hit 4,300 or higher if a debt ceiling deal is reached. the results after this break. coming up, don't miss the ceos of service now and invidia. big interviews coming up we're back in two. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

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staples are in the red today the vix is 16, down about 6.5% >> little bit of tension release. i don't know if it was headline driven we were coiled pretty tightly in this range a lot of talk heading into options expiration, there was this clustering of positioning in this areas. it's not about the debt ceiling. i think you removed that as a real overhang negative worst-case scenario playing out. all of that is one fewer reason to lean against the market regional banks, looking squeezy, but it's a high or low on that chart. maybe they're trying to put distance between themselves and the abyss. all those things working together gets the s&p to last week's high. we keep it in contextm small caps outperforming

it's just one day. we'll see how it plays. >> financials 2%, energy 2%, nice gains for industrials, tech is still participating as well as materials and health care's not doing that much. the spaces that have been static are doing a little something. >> static or worse you've had the rustsell 2000 threatening to break down. auto stocks have been pricing in a more gloomy scenario the macro data is not eroding that fast and in some areas it's picking up whether that means the fed is again in the game in coming months, maybe that's the case. for now it's enough when you had a lot of skeptical positioning going into the day to spring us

forward. >> l.p., what did mark lazry say about rates? >> reporter: this is interesting. mark lazry was speaking earlier this morning made a call that the fed will soon pivot from worrying about inflation to worrying about a recession. he said the fed will cut rates, it's just a matter of when >> the fed has already told you they'll lower rates. for some reason people don't believe it people are still nervous rates will come down in the next six months if there's anybody out there from bloomberg or anyone, mark my words, within six months rates will start coming down. >> reporter: lasry's comments appear to be in line with steve cohen who had spoken last night. cohen believes that supply chain normalization, ai and other technology will push prices down

and the fed will pause and start cutting rates. as such, he believes stocks will go higher. lasry is in more of the recession camp causing that cut. steve cohen is in the camp of technology will solve our inflation problem and the fed will cut. >> cohen, from somebody was in the room, was said to be bullish on stocks, leslie. >> reporter: yep, as a result of technology what's interesting -- i don't know the timeline. it was an invite only, no cameras there, but i confirmed those comments with people close to him it was mentioned on stage today as well. he didn't necessarily -- we don't know what timeline he's talking about. is it that six-month timeline? if so, that's a quick way that ai technology will work its way into a system in a way that would push prices down and cause stocks to move higher.

>> leslie, thank you you want to opine on this idea that the fed is going to cut in the next six months? >> if you look at the fed open market committee forecast, they were talking about the first part of next year. i don't know if we get out beyond a couple months, it becomes very much a slave to whatever your macro outlook is softish landing, they're not cutting. they can make the case that they're where they want to be with rates i don't know how you would bet on that through asset prices right now on the fed cutting the path we take to get there may not be the one you anticipate. >> julia boorstin, two weeks and counting into the writer's strike we're starting to feel some pain. >> reporter: netflix was supposed to host its first ever ad sales presentation. it was going to be live at the

paris theater in manhattan that would have been a big deal for netflix. two weeks into the writer's strike with intense picketing, the streamer opted to cancel its event and stream it. the wga is saying their contract would cost studios $429 million noting it's a tiny fraction of the $19 billion that will be spent on streaming services this year the negotiating body for the studios is not responding to questions about these estimates, but it's disagreed with the estimates about the cost of the strike in the past meanwhile, youtube, which does not rely on wda writers could be a beneficiary of the strike. they're hosting its upfront showcasing stars like mr. beef

not affiliated with the wda. they're talking about their ad capping technologies they could be a big winner here. >> no doubt. big week julia boorstin, thank you very much big times in "overtime" today. >> absolutely, scott last quarter orders for cisco were down. morgan stanley is flagging growth in their business with the u.s. government. some analysts believe the giant could raise guidance with supply chain issues normalizing that report coming after the bell earnings call at 4:30 and chuck

robbins will speak about the quarter on "mad money. >> we'll get insight into china, right, as mr. robbins has been prone to do over the last many quarters >> absolutely. >> it's been a little uneven in china in terms of the rebound, frank. >> yeah. for some companiesit has just the size and scale of cisco gives a good read on where the supply chain is in china during the pandemic they had to switch where they were sourcing components and make adjustments. the call will be critical and give us insight into china. >> been left behind too in this tech move. this stock has done next to nothing. it's been flat. >> it has been flat this year. the question is does it have more upside. some analysts are looking for a

raise in q4 guidance will that give the stock a pop we're in the year of efficiency. the question is about a good margin number. maybe it was profit and revenue in the past, but we're in the year of efficiency a lot of investors want to see them come more efficient as the competition becomes more fierce. >> frank, thank you. we'll see chuck robbins on "mad money. we're better than 400 on the dow. rates are up too along the curve. >> it's a little bit of the economy doesn't look like it's falling apart, but also 80% of

volume up. it's not an either or market i've been not as alarmed by the fact that you've not had this dominance in year to date returns. >> i had a conversation at the beginning of our show with people who say it's a negative >> it's not an absolute positive you prefer to have a broader more inclusive market. it's not odd about it considering the underperformance last year we had from that area. three-year, s&p killing the nasdaq 100 it's a catch-up move in 2018, mega caps are holding up the market, contributing to gains overall than the index that was august of 2018. we were at all-time highs. it was a narrowing of the market that happens from time to time today's a demonstration that breadth heading through from a washed out state and the market

looking a little more oversold >> we're going to go out close to 400 on the dow. the debt ceiling optimism is having somewhat of an impact we turn or attention to earnings after the bell i'll send it to "overtime" right now. rallying stocks today with all the major averages closing up more than 1%. debt ceiling optimism fueling those movers we await a pair of big earnings from cisco i'm with john fortt who is in las vegas. >> we got a lot of news happening at this event, including service now announcing a partnership with