tv Fast Money CNBC May 19, 2023 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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divergence between tech stocks and -- which are starting to underperform. >> true, and also the case for growth needs to be made next week nvidia reporting the value wigs on that, pretty wild palo alto has been also doing well can it continue? >> that's going to do it for us here at "overtime" >> "fast money" begins now. right now on "fast," in the shoe doghouse. shares of foot locker plummet, dropping 25% in an outlook that reeked more than a teenager's sneakers after a long day of playing hoops. plus, japan's stock market doing something it hasn't done since the simpson's hit the air waves, pretty woman topped the box office, and wilson phillips topped the charts. later, tesla's revved up week
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why the stock chart is nearly 7% higher is this the start of a summer surge or just a one-week wonder. on the desk tonight -- we begin with a crushing day for foot locker the stock plunging 27% on scary guidance from this retailer saying they're seeing a slowdown they also tag retail theft for part of the drop in the margins. they're expecting sales to fall 8% on the year the ceo mary dillon talked about it this morning. >> we skew where the pressure is higher facts and math is pressure is going to be different depending on household income. i think we're seeing more pressure i also am seeing strong sign of ready with improvements we're doing in the digital experience and loyalty program that we are putting more things in our control that continue to drive
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that demand as we go forward. >> foot locker is a name that karen finerman has loved so much she put it in her 2023 acronym now what >> very difficult day, obviously. there was a lot to hate about this earnings release. you know, mary dillon talked about softer demand, this was an accommodation softer demand and discretionary spending by the consumer getting weaker, but also it was promotional for them the revenue miss wasn't that bad. the bottom line miss was terrible and they were just as promotional as they could be and i don't think that's abating at all, which is why the rest of the guidance for the year was so bad. one other thing, they're not going to be giving guidance going forward. they didn't want to cut that come turkey, so they did give guidance for the rest of the year, which was dismal they cited left the, like others have, but that wasn't the
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problem. it was the activity. and didn't sound like traffic was really getting better. >> sounded like it was getting worse. >> i didn't hear that it was getting worse. i didn't hear that it was getting better, though and so it's troubling that this was a very big change from the investor day on the other side -- there is another side of this, which is at their investor day in march, they talked about their multiyear plan, which is to get to $10 billion in sales with a 10% margin that gets you to $8 a share of earnings there was nothing she said today that made her temper that at all. it was an opportunity to that if they wanted, i think she may end up doing it later. the she's remotely close to that, then the stock is a buy here we'll see how the rest of the stock progresses this is a kitchen sink quarter i hope, i really hope it was a
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tremendous kitchen sink quarter. i'm here for the mary dillon turnaround, so i'll stay here, sad for a while. i think that we'll see next quarter how it goes. i think this is a combination read into the weakness of foot locker, the too much invenntory of foot locker and more broad discretionary spending being hindered. >> when you think about when they last gave guidance, march, things got worse between then and now, and then you start worrying about the consumer overall, foot locker specifically, but also more broadly in term of that sort of cadence to the quarter. >> i agree by the way, before the end of the show i want to do a would you rather on wilson versus phillips. >> are they two people >> they're three people, actually. >> if you can name the famous parents -- >> brian wilson. >> the famous other story in foot locker is nike. if you think about what foot
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locker i think really has to overcome is that nike relationship 70% of sales has to move karen's issues -- the inventory didn't get that much better. it went from 30% last quarter to 28% quarter, and then on a relative basis in this environment, when we see every other retailer get their house in order on inventory quickly, this concerns. so, the questions we're also asking on our calls and throughout the day, is this just a foot locker story or a broader dec discretionary and retail story this isn't too controversial -- it's a bit of both i think the lower end consumer is suffering and this is where foot locker hit harder than others. >> it is a bit of both i think there are some thing here specific to the foot locker story. you mention the reliance on nike you talk about that inventory purnl. it was only six months ago where nike went to their own inventory
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build, purge as a larger dce presence, which do put pressure on foot locker but they're trying to move from the 70%, 75% mix to a 50% mix. there's levers at nike and some other vertically integrated manufacturers have the pull that a foot locker wholesaler isn't going to have to pull. that's why, yes, i do think it's going to be both because of the position of the consumer, but i think this is specific to a foot locker because they don't manufacture. they're kind of at the mercy of nike and other host -- sorry, other manufacturers to provide them inventory and for them also to get that inventory mixed right and the seasonality right as they look to push out to the consumer. >> that was one other silver lining, that did increase, so they are moving away from that reliance to nike, julie, but this is sort of a story of the department store do you have that power if you
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are selling other manufacturer's goods? foot locker is like a department store for shoes. >> that's how i would liken it to the specialty retails when it started to take off, when gap start to be this behemoth, it was difficult for the department stores to compete. they just don't have to level of control and line of sight into their inventory, and that makes running that business very, very difficult. that's what's happening right here now with foot locker, and it's hard to replace something like a nike. it's just -- the level of brand positioning that nike has really speaks to why this business is struggling so much but i think mary really has her hands full with this business. and you look at what's happening with traffic, that is generally the life blood of this business. to see it do so poorly is really, really concerning. >> yeah, how you impute this on to some of the other manufacturers, they said there was weak demand for boots. we saw vfc move lower because of
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the presumed weakness for timberland. >> dick's sporting goods, too. also a department store for sporting goods. >> exactly so nike, if nonnike penetration is up, does that mane nike sales are down >> karen and i were talk about this before the show some of foot locker's issues were they had a fantastic -- to operate during covid when i think about nike, i think the pull forward there, too. i realize that -- and i'm short nike i'm short nike at 120, and i don't think the stock's going to get away from me i love the company, and it's kind of tactical i'm not betting the farm i do think it's going lower, and i think the multiple in this environment has to go lower, and i think the discretionary spend, we've only just started to see it if you look at the chart on nike you're going to get close down to 100. >> karen, what do you think? >> i think this quarter that promotional environment just really will continue they have to fix this.
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it's disappointing if they hadn't we saw walmart and target do a better job of it that lower consumer is really sort of -- we didn't see it as much in target as i thought we would looking back now with this consumer here. it's interesting, in terms of the nike mix, they did talk about hoka and new balance having a renaissance. >> running shoes did well. >> their champ's banner was a disaster, down 34% or something like that. i'm really hoping this is the kitchen sink if not, this is terrible. >> how many more quarters do you give mary dillon >> three. >> that could be a long leash. that could be a lot of pain. >> only two more days like this we need. >> why only two quarters >> she already had two. >> we're talking about a company that's going to have a major format shift.
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>> she doesn't need to get to the finish line in two -- >> in order for the stock to return. >> she needs to be making progress this $10.10 ebit is not a -- >> it's not that big of a deal. >> it's not that 2024 deal, it's further out than that. >> but you're going can her after three quarters. >> there's already been two. if she's making progress which is different if there's no progress at all. depend on the backdrop of the world. >> let's get to regional banks rough end to a strong week had been pacing for a 10% campaigns but then just a few hours ago the banks reversed major gains. that's when there was news that janet yellen told executives that more mergers could be necessary, the implication being that there will be more troubled banks that would need to merge julie, should we be concerned here >> yes, we should always be
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concerned because most recessions are worse if they're proceeded by a financial crisis. i continue not to be interested in banks because that's a long-term view i have, but i agree that kind of positioning from janet yellen is absolutely concerning and something you need to pay attention to i worry a lot about the financial health, particularly -- we all know about the commercial real estate, but i think shadow banking is even more concerning and we have no visibility into that. >> i'm 100% with julie here in terms of establishing a port portfolio, but on the counterside i think these banks are a wonderful opportunity if you're willing to trade around them look at the positive news out of the white house, out of yellen, whether it's the debt ceiling crisis, and saying work see actually a path forward we can get this resolved in a week or two. and you see beta get bought and you're seeing the swings, particularly in the regional banks. then you drill down into, like, the percentage of book value, book they're trading at, and
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essentially all the washout, the liquidation is priced into these. when you get these sentiment swings i think they're going to drill down on tech, beta, and these type of names which will present an opportunity to buy and sell and then reenact that trading in the short-term. >> how about the flipside to just a trade how about a long-term investment in these banks >> do you think five years from now we're going to say, i should have bought the kre? >> i do. diversified portfolio gives you thematic exposure. valuation wise, attractive now they have been priced for recession, and you can't analyze capital flight risk. coming up, the biggest gains might be halfway around the world. regions outperforming the u.s. sbnch later, elon musk might be having his best week of the year following his cnbc interview, a new twitter ceo announcement can he keep charging ahead
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'ldetehawh "stwel ba tt enfa money" rolls on. - double check that. eh, pretty good! (whistles) yeek. not cryin', are ya? let's tighten that. (fabric ripping) ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org. lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com.
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all-time high. levels not seen since february of last year, and in japan, nikkei eclipsing levels not seen since 1990 how should you play the strength overseas let's go around the globe with chart master carter braxton worth. >> third and fourth biggest economies in the world, germany and japan, great allies now, now prospering and indices at former highs. the decision whether you do allocate capital overseas as a u.s. investor holding this currency and what you think about their prospect of countries, you have to contend with waitings. what we know is industrials and consumer discretion are the single biggest waits in the nikkei and dax so it's an anti-technology bet. let's look at the charts. >> yes sorry. >> you saying yes, look at some
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charts >> let's get 'em. >> so for fun here, this is the fsci all country world index ex the u.s. so what you're looking at is a chart that just goes down and to the right. there's that brief period where you outperform and that's t t the.com boom and bust. looking at those two in particular, and let's do that now, the here and now chart, we've just -- this is the long-term chart of the dax talk about up and to the right gorgeous an underperformer relative to the u.s. the here and now chart of the dax, we're just back -- right back to the former high. so in principle, before exceeding a high, you typically back and fill at the high. let's look at the nikkei we know it had its peek in 1989.
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they were akwcquiring things li rockefeller center, pebble beach, appeared on "time" as the land of the rising sun i think ultimately it will get back to the high as well but the circumstances similar to the dax, here and now final chart, we're right at the former high and so as a matter of sequencing, before you really do break out, when you quickly move to a former high, you contend with it, which is to say you back and fill or back away. >> there's still time to determine whether this will break to new -- >> i think they will, and one should have exposure, but on a long-term basis, it's pretty tough to beat america. >> emerging market specialists -- >> we had a show once called trading the globe. it was exciting. >> how much of it is this anti-technology bet going on versus we think the prospect of japan and germany look better versus the u.s.? >> i love him pointing that out because i just think that international stock have underperformed u.s. stocks for a long time because of the lack of
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technology there are no benchmarks. what are you going to invest in in germany siemens? it's a great call if you look at the inflection on a relative underperformance most of these international indices pivoted in late 2022 to being straight down not over a couple years, over ten years and whether this is sustainable or not, i don't know look at japan, look at euro stocks 50. this reason this is sustainable to japan, there are standards that forced higher rocs for companies. inflation largely over and, the worst performing currency over the last five years was the japanese yen currency strengthening in dollars is going to help you if you own japanese stocks imputed back to dollars. i think the yen -- the dollar is going lower, not by tens of percents, but i think the yen stopped going lower against the dollar. >> carter, thanks. see you in "options action." we've got a news alert related
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to the doj aimed at the anti-trust lawsuit breaking up the northeast airline alliance. >> not surprisingly jet blue saying it is disappointed with the decision here is the statement from jet through we received a few minutes ago. it says, we are disappointed in the decision we made it clear at the trial that the northeast alliance has been a huge win for customers. through the nea, jet blue has been able to significantly grow northeast airports, bringing great fares and service to more routes than would have been previously possible. otherwise we are studying the judgment in full and evaluating our next steps as part of the legal process. i should point out, in the past when we have talked with representatives from jet blue and american, they have indicated or had indicated they would likely appeal if they were to lose this judgment, though you can see from jet blue's statement, they have not made that decision yet, and melissa, we have not yet heard from american airlines. >> phil, thanks.
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still ahead, tech finally recouping its dot come bubble losses how to hedge the move. first, what a week for tesla. more ads coming back to twitter. elon showing a helpness to advertising. lots of buzz from his interview. the stock surged more than 7%. can the good vibes last? we'll break that down. and throughout may, cnbc is celebrating asian and pacific islander heritage. here's the ceo and founder of posh mark. >> when i think of my asian heritage and i think of how i grew up in a country where there's a lo of people -- india's a country of a billion people, asia a continue nent with biggest population, you have to work hard to distinguish yourself and stand out, so that real focus on working hard and at the same time working with everyone but also carving out a place for yourself is something i learned very early
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welcome back to "fast money. tesla's our chart of the week. the stock rallied more than 7% at the shareholder meeting elon musk exhibited a openness to advertising. he stressed that with the new ceo of twitter he'll spend less time with the company and said in this interview he's going to say what he feels, even if it costs him money, costs the shareholders money seems luke a teflon kind of week for tesla, even a headline on offering discounts in the u.s. on model 3s didn't hurt gains.
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they also talked about a model 2, which investors were looking toward seem like an interesting jump start here for a possible -- >> eh. >> i knew that wouldn't fly. >> i was going to yawn, but i don't want to do that on television. >> 7% move since when have we talked about 7% moves with tesla? beta of beta names when it comes to the times series -- year to date, what are we, 40%? go back to mid fall 2022, and we're half of where we were. they still have to go what they're going to do with pricing under way. are they going to look at it every day, week, every hour? i think this is a blip in what continues to be a pretty strong downtrend. >> if linda yakarino can -- and the concern had been he had to sell stock to get back the debt
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load then maybe there's hope. >> there's a relationship between tesla's share price and twitter. she's a great headline for twitter. she really is. i think she's going to do interesting things i think the combination of this shareholder meeting, maybe there was some anxiety around it i think the new models -- jean munster brought that up. just the size of the market. mega cap tech has had a huge run. if we plotted amazon and microsoft and facebook, they have had big weeks, too. so i think we just have to understand all this. by the way, not only that interview but throwing out the first pitch. >> and it was straight may have missed but it was straight. >> he's calculating. he was just setting him up for the next pitch. >> around the horn >> not cars but infrastructure software, and i think it's well
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positioned. >> bonawyn >> i thinkhis thing had kind of gotten left for dead, but look at the run it's had. >> tim >> let's see boeing i was thinking about the beach boys i was think about brian wilson, wilson phillips. >> karen >> yes so sandy's in my ear saying, foot locker and i was say, okay, let's talk about foot locker if i own none, i'd wait the th three- day rule at a minimum to start. >> that does it on "fast money." do not go anywhere "options action" is up next.
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right now on oa, consumer concerns to retail to restaurants to housing what the charts are say about the consumer and what it means for the markets. plus, tech's party like it's 1999 or maybe 2000 we'll go inside the numbers. later, while the oil scheid of the energy trade has hit the skids, could natural gas be the way to heat up your portfolio? stick around
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