♪ ♪ ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum >> and i'm arabile gumede. these are your headlines president volodymyr zelenskyy relengths bakhmut as the ukrainian leader takes center stage at g7 >> it is tragedy, but for today,

bakhmut is in our hearts. china targets micron and claiming the clip maker is a serious risk, but washington calls back it has not bases in fact. dow futures lower as president biden and kevin mccarthy plan to meet over the debt ceiling. >> it is time to move from the extreme positions. much of what they proposed is simply unacceptable. and the greek german ten-year spread falls to the tightest since august after the prime minister claims victory, but falls short in the overall majority

good morning warm welcome to "street signs. the g7 closed on sunday with the japanese prime minister called for a world without nuclear weapons. it was a surprise appearance by the ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy that stole the show and announcing fresh sanctions. his appearance came after the tour of the countries and gaining support of ukraine after the city of bakhmut was seized >> translator: first question today was about bakhmut. the photos of hiroshima remind me of bakhmut.

nothing alive. not an understanding where the street is and building is. that is a total destruction. >> u.s. president biden expects relations with china to improve. he called for diversified supply chains and hinting he may speak soon with president xi jinping joe biden said the g7 is aligned. >> we are aligned with the approach with the people's republic of china. we outlined the shared principles of the g7 dealing with china we are not looking to decouple from china we are looking to diversify our relationship with china. that means taking steps to

diversify supply chains so we are not dependent on any one country for a necessary product. it means resisting coercion together it means protecting a narrow set of advanced technologies critical for national security and those elements are all agreed on by the g7. >> let's get to hiroshima and martin who is covering the latest from the g7 good morning, marty. what do you make of the word choice of the g7 leaders are not looking to decouple, but derisk their relationship with china and how can we expect china to cha change, if at all moving forward? >> reporter: good morning, jules and arabile. the president did refer to china

and it has been a mixed bag with the concrete actions they are taking against china and they have been more oblique and less direct this is more an issue of diplomacy. they didn't want to get china's back riled up too much this is a fashionable word, derisking, opposed to decoupling the issue of decoupling, un unplugging from a country of a supply for whatever you need, is unrealistic. let's say iphones in china or apple in china it means in the case of derisking, russia has to do with energy and food security in the case of china, it is more complex. they are trying to deny access to the technologies ofconductorh

and et cetera. the flip side is incentivizing with relation to the inflation reduction act. incentivizing production of technologies of the future this would be giving american companies a leg up or maybe a favorable position this is happening at a time when the u.s. continues to hammer china for favoring their companies with subsidies who is right who is wrong we talk to the head of the w.t.o. during coverage at the summit she would not be drawn on the chips act or the i.r.a. or in co contravention of the w.t.o

>> this is heightened with the war in ukraine and high food prices and energy. climate change and existing threats. there is a feeling that perhaps the global system is not serving us the way it used to. because of the disruption of the supply chain, maybe we have been overreliant on certain sources of supply. there is some truth to that. we should not confuse two things i think we should look at what is actually happening. there is an over-concentration of manufacturing in certain sectors in certain countries and i agree that we need to build resilience that the world cannot be reliant on a few countries for key products >> reporter: so the executive director general of the w.t.o.

in the first on cnbc interview there. the language, jules, she did everything but say the word china. that is what she implied or suggested. back to you. >> marty, thank you so much for the analysis and coverage. it has been fantastic from hiroshima. sticking can china, the country is blocking the supply of products made by micron banning key operators from buying them. beijing's regulator said the firm failed a national security review micron looks forward to continue discussions with the chinese authorities. the frankfurt listing is down 5% in pre-market trade down 6%. arabile, i can't help but pay attention to the timing. we knew the review was under way with china review of micron, but

to come out with the ban as biden said he expects relations with china to improve. you have to wonder if there is a connection and merit in biden's claim it will improve. >> you wonder if posturing is at play or is it really a case of what we've always weird with regard to china. excess information is really the issue. we talk about micron giving 10% of revenue from china. we don't know what it means for micron customers which are not chinese entities it could be a large chunk of business that they need to look out for here the question is how much more can they fight this if at all? it seems like there may be a hard stance. if president biden is going to say there is a, you know, better posturing with relations with china, this may be an olive

branch to offer up how do you do that when you want to ensure they don't continue to breakdown the trust. >> looking at the ban specifically, one thing to note in particular is the ban from beijing applies to infrastructures only not all will be impacted jeffries says the impact will be limited as major customers are consumer electronics suppliers you look at the share price. clearly investors are concerned. there is a concern the ban could spread or debate with the exposure across the industries to your point of what this means for the broader u.s. and china relationship moving forward, it does seem it could be an opportunity to dial tensions down depending on the response at the moment, it seems like an

escalation in tension, not deesc deescalation. >> we have seen china retaliate in situations like this as well. they've had a few situations where they fought back on when it comes to any bans put forward by the united states if that happens, we've gone all the way back to, you know, square one, when it comes to trade tensions and about to escalate more than decrease. this is certain one to look out for. coming up on the show, ryanair is issuing a sunny outlook for the peak travel season as it says aviation capacity continues to fall we break down the numbers after the break. how can you sleep on such a firm setting? gab, mine is almost the same as yours. almost... just another word for not as good as mine. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, special financing. only at sleep number. shipstation saves us so much time

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between those talks from president biden in the united states as well as house speaker kevin mccarthy that will boost or pick the sent sentiment around what happens around the global if that is not resolved by june 1st the date that janet yellen called to regard and noticeably you point to the cautious optimism and some others are in negative territory. really inching lower across the board which is a falling for the ftse mib out of step investors still keeping a close eye there. when it comes to the sectors to look out for as well, mainly mixed here healthcare managed to get gains early on as well household goods managing gains,

too. .50% to the good utilities better off telecoms gaining 2%. and ryanair is one we will unpack coming up with the c chemical stocks which is weaker. oil and gas is weaker .50% in trading thus far julianna let's talk about the latest with the debt ceiling. talks will resume today after president biden left the g7 summit the conversation will raise a busy week with the pmi data due on tuesday and minutes p from te federal reserve a day later. and on wednesday is the fed minutes report from the uk as well as the cpi.

we have our chief economist here with us. thank you for being with us, sam. i was reading over the weekend a piece from the imf of a warning that markets are quickly falling and banks cutting rates in 2023. do you agree >> we would agree, however, if markets are complacent about the fed cutting rates, nonetheless, the inflation narrative is seeing stage two of the inflation trend with services now contributing to lower inflation. we are more relaxed when it comes to the inflation narrative and we see inflation converging to comfortable levels by the end of the year. where we are cautious is market anxiety may shift from inflation

narrative to the growth slowdown or worries which might come in the next few weeks and months as the interest rate sensitive sector will feel the bite from the tightening from the last quarters >> when it comes to the growth outlook for many years, we all have been used to china being the engine behind global growth. there was optimism with the chinese reopening, but recently the sentiment around china has weakened arabile and i were discussing the rhetoric from the g7 and countries looking to derisk relationships with china what do you think comes next for the china economic story and do you expect a significant change with china on the back of the g7 commitment >> we remain positive on the short-term story demand from the reopening. i know there were a lot of talks

how it is faltering. we find the statement severe currently, china is doing okay domestic demand is doing okay. it is weakening on the production side. manufacturing and trade is weak everywhere it is weak as well in chaina. the problem with china is not the short-term story, julianna, but the long-term headwinds that are numerous with the property sector and complicated economic re-balancing with the manufacturing to the consumer and finally, geopolitics and how the role of china and supply chains is about to change. very clearly it is not on the short term, but on the medium term that could benefit the rest of the region japan and south asian industries will benefit from the reorganization of the supply chains there are losers, but also

winners on the story >> samy, good morning. arabile here you speak about the others benefits most from this. you are quite right. micron is one we spoke about before the break here and they are set to invest $3.7 billion in japan that gives a sense there is a lot still to gain for the others china would have a lot to say around that. they will not just sit down and let that be. with a trade war, perhaps, sparking back up again, how much more would that hurt that economy? >> you are absolutely right, arabile. this is a contest. this is a competition between the two power houses of the world economy. those two groups and clearly, the u.s. feels comfortable in a side-by-side competition with whine p an stle been there before and they

feel they probably have the strongest position when it comes to the u.s. consumer and when it comes to the size of the u.s. economy and the role of the dollar and clearly when it comes to the allies of the u.s japan and parts of asia and europe as well and mexico. clear clearly, the americans feel comfortable and it feels china has the most to lose i expect china to be less confrontational with this strategy competition let's see if there is some potential deescalation from here very clearly, the strategy competition is going to shape the interactions in the coming years. >> let me pull this thread a little bit and draw you more to the united states specifically here all signs here, particularly credit demand, is pointing to

recession in the united states perhaps there are three threads holding it together, perhaps more, really around consumer spend which is holding up somewhat there is a jobs market which seems to be holding true as well one thread which might fall at this point and one we are worried about is u.s. debt ceiling. is that really the cookie that breaks the entire scenario, you think? could they find a solution now considering how close we are to 1st of june? >> arabile, i think at some point we need to spend time of how the u.s. will default rather than what the consequences of the potential default would be it is clear that we get, obviously, a bipartisan deal we get to this story every time and the u.s. gets more and more polarized, at some point, we will be confronted in the years to come, if it is not this year

that is a fact a bipartisan deal needs to be made it is important to look at the unconvention and unilateral actions that the party in place could take to avoid default. 14th amendment, premium bond, reclassifying the treasuries held at the fed, the platinum coin at some point we will not go through this every year. they have to find a long-term solution, especially when the u.s. debt is sustainable at the interest rate levels wear are thinking about the ways of default rather than consequences. >> i think everyone would avoid the default. samy, let me bring you back to

the economic picture in the u.s. clearly, the gap between when the fed raises rates and impact on the economy is pretty big and fed chair powell made clear that is the case. when are the effects, full effects of tighter lending conditions going to be seen in the economy? >> julianna, i think we have already seen a piece of that especially when it comes to the interest rates sensitive sector in the economy we have seen weakness in trade and manufacturing and housing and private investment there's going to be a second round effect on the rest of the economy, right when does all of this weakness spill into the consumer and employment and basically services sector. that, we expect, with more lag to be in full effect at the fourth quarter of this year. we would expect this recession driven by past tightening to happen in q4 2023.

that is when we would expect the contraction materialize. >> samy, i appreciate the time this morning chief economist at lombard for that update. the uk government selling 1.26 billion pounds of shares in nat west trimming the stake in the lender it brings the holding down to 38.6%. the government says it will continue to consider other disposal issues and options. profit at ryanair surged to 1.4 billion euro boosted by the strong recovery and traffic as well as successful fuel hedging. traffic grew 74% with fares up 10% compared to pre-covid times.

it has market share gaining across european countries. the cfo told cnbc he is confident about the demand outlook. >> we are not back to pre-covid capacity europeans is 90% of capacity customers want to travel in numbers. i think we had a systemic change in capacity for years to come. a lot of airlines went out of business or downsized during covid. they are disciplined in how they put capacity into the market oems are struggling to get aircraft out fast enough to meet demand leasing companies are short as well lost 500 aircraft into russia as a result of the sanctions. i think you will see capacity strains for some time to come. travel is high on people's list. i think demand is strong and that is the reason we were

confident with the 300 aircraft order and project growth to 300 million. coming up on the show, a big talking point. president biden and kevin mccarthy prepare to sit down one-on-one to thrash out agreement on the debt ceiling.

good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines president volodymyr zelenskyy laments bakhmut has been taken. >> it is a tragedy, but for today bakhmut is in our hearts there is nothing in this place china targets micron with

trade restrictions claiming the united states chip maker poses a security risk, but washington hits back saying the move has no basis in fact. dow futures turn lower as biden and mccarthy prepare to meet at the white house after a weekend of wrangling of the debt ceiling casts doubts over the deal. >> it is time to move from the extreme positions because much of what they already proposed is unacceptable and the greek-german ten-year spread falls as mitsotakis claims victory, but falls short of the overall majority let's get a check on

commodity markets. oil is trading lower this morning. wti is down .60% to $71. brent is down to $75 a barrel. any deal in the u.s. debt ceiling is a key driver for oil prices going forward iea executive director told cnbc he is not too concerned about the debt ceiling standoff. >> the issue in the united states common sense will prevail. i don't see a major risk there for the global oil markets of course, oil markets are always involved with risk and when i look at the next few months to come is where on one hand we see the oil growth mainly driven by china

we expect this year to see global oil demand increase slightly by 2 million barrels a day. growth is expected to come from china alone. >> birol commended europe for the transition away from russian gas, but warned of dark clouds ahead. >> credit to the european countries. they did a good job. also it did better last winter think about the european economy which was modelled on the cheap russian gas. in one year, europe was able to transform the energy market and reduced share of russian gas by less than 4% and still european economy did not go into recession and european emissions

did decline which is a good story for you. europe is going strong and as you mentioned, the gas storage levels are very distant levels there are three risks for europe still not out of the woods if chinese demand is stronger in the second half of the year and it will see extreme winter and then third if europe gets russian gas cut for political reasons, we may see challenges for the next winter in europe. u.s. president biden says debt ceiling talks with kevin mccarthy went well with both sides agreeing to meet today biden and mccarthy spoke on the phone over the weekend as the president returned from japan.

nbc's peter alexander has more rmt. >> reporter: now with a week away from the default, the president and mccarthy agreeing to meet at the white house tomorrow afternoon the president en route back from japan calling from air force one. the top republican calling the callproductive. >> he is walking through what he wants from his members >> reporter: that tone is different from hours earlier when the two leaders were trading accusations. the president slamming house republicans for extreme positions and for ratcheting up demands he dismissed unacceptable >> it is time for the public to accept there is no bipartisan deal to be made solely on their partisan terms >> reporter: mccarthy arguing biden is back tracking to satisfy progressive democrats. >> he seems he wants default more than a deal

>> reporter: time is running out for a deal with janet yellen on "meet the press" reasserting the june 1st deadline is likely to shift. >> i haven't changed my assessment i think that's a hard deadline >> reporter: the sticking points are the extent of spending cuts with the president saying he was open to some, but not severe cuts and stricter work requirements for federal assistance programs like food stamps and medicaid. should the u.s. default, both sides would share political blame. he insists some maga republicans would capitalize on the crisis >> i'm the president and the president is responsible for everything, biden would take the blame. that is the way to make sure biden is not reelected >> the professor at the london business school joins us to unpack this one. professor, thank you for the

time let's unpack it with the previous guest suggesting we should suggesting how can the u.s. avoid default. is there a way past it >> it looks difficult. you don't negotiate with crazies. mccarthy is hostage to crazy we are where we are. i'm glad birol thinks it is not a problem, but i think it is a big problem. you know about all the proposed solutions. i think the simplest is to say the 14th amendment says it should not be impugned that is sufficient according to constitutional lawyers the secretary of treasury says she doesn't want to go that way. it is not clear what other way

she wants to go. minting a platinum coin? ruled that out issuing high premium bonds that would sell for more than an ordinary treasury bond it is a thought, but not a good one. i don't see a clear way out of this. >> it would be very tight if they were to find a deal now and get everything signed and sealed with the house speaker mccarthy saying he will give every republican 72 hours to read this before it is put in place. are we stamping there won't be a deal here with too much issues on hand? >> as i say, you don't negotiate with crazies having a complicated package to which one or another person is going to object will not work, i don't think. you know, if biden and yellen can make it work, good for them.

i don't see a clear way out of this you know, it is a serious business the consequences that some republicans have said, oh, it is not a big deal we have been through this before we haven't been through this before when we came up to this point in previous cases, it was the common sense prevailed it is not clear that common sense can prevail with former president trump egging on the crazies and the crazies set in their ways >> professor, no clear way out and what happens how do you see it playing out? talk us through the consequences if we don't see a deal struck? >> it is painful to talk through the consequences, to be honest the main impact would be on the markets which would go

completely crazy the u.s. treasuries are the backbone of not only the u.s. financial markets, but international financial markets. the spillover would be immediate internationally. the consequence is a depreciation of the dollar and full fall in the markets and downgrade of the united states which would force some institutions that can't hold bonds that are below top grade to sell them which further pushes down the price of treasuries long treasuries might go up actually because some investors will have to move into safe assets short treasuries, obviously, very bad the overall position of the

dollar and global economy would be weakened. it is already a great deal of talk of the decline of the dollar and effects of sanctions and so forth i don't think that talk has much in it right now. if the u.s. were to stop payment on treasuries coming due, that would be a different story >> the prevailing view seems to be if we do get the spike in market volatility, that will force the hand of either said. it is going to take market reaction to see either president biden or the republicans come to the table. do you just not see that happening in time? >> that is possible. that is possible as i say, there is an extreme fringe of the republican party in the house that may not care

about market signals of the look, they brought it on themselves in fact, it is the tax cuts of the previous administration. of course, the spending programs as well. it is these that have brought on the problem and refusing to pay for them once you enacted them and that is just not very sensible is it? >> professor, i appreciate the time we could still talking about the permutations of who stands to lose most here if it is the republicans or president biden in this case we will unpack this one as the days go by thank you for the time richard portis at the london business school. all right. greece's conservative new democracy party won a clear victory in the first round of elections putting prime minister

mitsotakis in position for the next greek government. the elections are looking to the second round as he looks to seek a majority government. now new democracy is just five seats short of majority with almost all votes counted as the party beat the closest center left rival by 20 points. mitsotakis reiterated the desire for the majority government with change in the country. >> translator: hope defeated pessimism. i am proud and i am moved as i feel the weight of the responsibility that such a percentage puts on my shoulders. i promise to work harder to earn your trust the result is clear. citizens want a strong government with a four-year horizon with bold changes to make up the lost ground.

>> a quick look at the greek yield curves which showing the greek-german yield curve with the dip in the yields. now let me take your attention to the tech sector meta specifically. in pre-market right now, shares are indicated down 0.6% after a report from the wall street journal just broke that meta fined $1.3 billion by the eu over data transfers to the u.s this is a fresh story. updates coming through now from the wall street journal. let me read you what we know from the journal the company was fined $1.3 billion by the european union. privacy lregulators with the ruling which is expected to be announced later today. the journal notes it would raise pressure on the u.s. to finalize a deal with meta and thousands of companies to keep sending

information stateside. that is according to the wall street journal i'm reading that verbatim. in terms of the market reaction, arabile, shares are indicated to open lower in terms of the magnitude of the move, 0.6% is contained. for a company like meta, maybe it is not seen as dramatic or this was not wildly unexpected by the market. >> this is something to continue to watch i think because the eu has really noted they want to continue to be a marketplace that many entities can come in and out of as well this is specifically uk. we did have the activision and microsoft issue not long ago this could play in the hands of that deal. this would be big to take a look at and see how exactly the u.s.

organizes this deal to finalize. i'm sure meta is able to sends information stateside. that is one we will continue to share. >> i know cnbc is looking to confirm the story as well. coming back to the market reaction, this isn't unexpected as a story we knew this was a possibility that meta could face a major fine over the transfer of european data to u.s. servers and how they react to this is interesting and a story to watch as you said. shares are down 0.5% coming up on the show, what a difference a year makes. 12 months ago, jamie dimon was prepping for jpmorgan chase investor day under a cloud with shareholders questioning his investment plans and his pay fast forward a year and he is surfing a wave of optimism as the epstein lawsuit looms.

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let's get a check of the european markets you have a bit of green and red on the board ftse 100 is up 0.3% along with spanish market on the down side, we are seeing a pull back in the italian market ftse mib is down .20% and flat start for the swiss and german markets. germany, the dax was the out performer last week. the stoxx 600 overall gained 0.7% for the week. that was the best weekly performance since the middle of april. in terms of today, investors digesting the agreement from the g7 toward a stance of de-risking the relationship with china. not a de-coupling, but de-risking interesting to see how it plays out and if it leads to the change in any of the approach to beijing.

in terms of the dollar index it gained 0.5% despite the pull back on friday now this morning with a muted start for euro and sterling against the dollar hovering at the flat line. 124 and 108 are the levels. dollar is weaker against the swiss franc down 0.4%. we are seeing weakness with the japanese yen as well greenback up .30% against the onshore. in terms of bond p markets, we have seen a notable pull back of greek bonds after the general election, this morning, we have seen 10-year yields with the lowest level since 2022 as for broader europe, we are seeing yields move lower across the region bund trading below the level

the italian btb trading 1.2% and wall street is set for a muted and positive start to trade. we saw u.s. stocks slip, but all three indices gained ground. nasdaq gained 3% dow was the weak link, but managed to increase 0.4% for the week credit suisse staff is looking to sue financial regulator finma after bonuses tied to the at-1 bonds were canceled when the bonds were wiped out. the financial times said the firm taking action has received several requests from credit suisse managers to represent them finma and kcredit suisse and th

law firm declined to respond. and the ceo will step down from morgan stanley. the board has narrowed a search for replacement to three internal candidates. jpmorgan chase's jamie dimon will take the stage for the annual investor day. the ceo is expected to field questions over his succession plans. the investor day comes as dimon prepares to be deposed this week in two civil cases related to the bank's former client jeffrey epstein. a lot of positivity despite the case coming to the floor you have the acquisition of the student financial start-up which he had to face and as we noted, a year makes a bit of difference for him.

it seems the crisis helped he does seem to fare better in a crisis it seems the bank, at this point, is doing fairly well. questions of his succession will be up for debate. >> i think jamie dimon is somebody who thrives in crisis scenario we have seen it many times before the fallout from silicon valley bank and the debt ceiling talks. the ft called him an unofficial ambassador to washington on wall street he thrives in that role. as for what is in focus for investor day today, you mentioned succession planning which is an indirect focus that is always in the background dimon is 67 years old. he is powering through still the leading ceo on wall street by many accounts. investors will be looking at other management who will be

presented on investor day to get insight if there could be a ceo succession or in the ranks i think investment community is keen to hear about the digital only consumer bank a venture they launched in the uk and getting an inside look of how that is doing and if they look to expand it. then, first republic this is a huge deal that jpmorgan chase stepped in. it is bolstering the wealth business which is a rare weak spot in the portfolio. for investors to understand the deal and what it looks like for them and more broadly growth jpmorgan chase has been an excellent bank relative to the international banking community. where is the next leg of growth come from? >> it expects to lose more than $1 billion in the next few years on the effort of breaking even that is by 2028. if jamie dimon does stay until 2028, that would be a long time

for a ceo to have stayed since the last financial crisis through what was effectively a smaller bank crisis as well. right through to 2028 and he is anticipated to get a payout in 2026 that will be interesting to note as well. let's look at u.s. futures before we hand you over to the u.s. colleagues. we have jpmorgan chase investor day and a slew of economic data. flash pmi on tuesday and we close out with the u.s. pce on friday that is it for the show. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm arabile gumede. thank you for joining us "worldwide exchange" is up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here is your "five@5." the treasury continues to say june 1st is the date. and beijing black listing. a chip black listed over serious concerns. the stock lower at the open. and kcredit suisse taking on th regulator preparing to scrap $400 million of bonuses. and