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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  May 22, 2023 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to "power lunch. alongside kelly, i'm tyler mathisen president biden and speaker mccarthy expected to meet for what was a productive call i think 5:30 was the date and time mccarthy said the sides are still far apart. can a deal get done in time and what is the real deadline. plus, is artificial intelligence raising an artificial stockmarket rally couldthis reverse just as quickly as it began? kelly. >> hi, everybody first let's get a check on the markets. very similar to what we've been watching all day long. the dow down a third of a percent, 109, the s&p, a hair below 4200 and the nasdaq composite up a
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half a percent news from the second hottest area of the market if ai is number one weight loss drugs. pfizer shares popping midday after a study says its oral weight loss drug works more quickly than the injectable. shares of nordisk were lower, now up fraction aulie. micron says the company poses a major security risk. we're seeing a 3% decline. we'll have more on that coming up. thank you. we start with the debt ceiling drama. president biden set to speak with house speaker mccarthy 5:30 eastern time while the president and congressional leaders offered glimmers of hope over the weekend. wit as cloudy kind of progress right there. reaching a deal, you'd say probably little progress so far that we know of. here with more on the negotiations, brian garner and co-host of the potomac
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perspective podcast. and my la mcginnis with the committee for responsible federal budget my la, let me talk to you first. is having a debt ceiling really responsible policy why doesn't it work this way when congress appropriates spending, why isn't part of the bill to say thank-to-make that spending come true, you have to have the ability to borrow if there aren't tax revenues sufficient to pay for the problems why do we keep banging or heads against this debt ceiling stuff? >> that's right. i think you're onto the time of debt ceiling reform we're going to see after this, because the showdown, the waiting until the last minute, the uncertainty it's creating is clearly unhealthy for the fiscal environmental. the truth is the debt krooeling in the past has been used many, many times production actively where measures were attached to it
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now it's clear we're unable to use it three times they increased the debt ceiling that made the debt worse. we need to reform the debt ceiling so if you're voting to engage it with some other kind of situation but not with the threat of default, which has become too chaotic for a polarized product to handle. >> we come up with this all the time it creates a cynicism among the governing process among many other things let me turn to you janet yellen said the x date that it will run out of accounting gimmicks that have enabled it so far to keep paying our bills is june 1.
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but practically ledge igislativ srjt legislatively, isn't it longer than that? what's the date we're looking at here. >> you nailed it, tyler. i think the real deadline forecast june 1 is the x date, then the real deadline is probably the end of this week because once you get an agreement, you do have to write the bill that doesn't happen overnight. that could take a day, two days, and then house republicans especially, they're going to wand 72 hours. there's no vote coming up and congress will be out of session next week. if they can get a framework before the end of the week, they
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could get an extension and buy the extra week or two to debate and probably pass the debt ceiling bill, but without that framework, without an agreement in principle, it's going to be really tough so, yeah, i'm looking for the end of this week to be the practical deadline. >> if that were all true, brian, and the market was down 2.5%, i would go, okay, i understand, but then why doesn't the market -- the stockmarket hasn't done nothing to create any urgency here why? >> i think part of it goes back to 2011, 2013. especially in 2011, we went right up to the edge and congress and the obama administration reached a deal. i think there's a feed view betn the investors, we'll go right up to the limit and then get a deal there's the fact that there is some comfort level that treasury can pull off the bond payments
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i think that's led some investors to say, it's not going to have a big impact in the financial markets and at least immediately. i've been on with you br and talked about the secondary effects. beyond social security and payroll, i'm looking at the effects from missed payments to a vendor or contractor they think the bondholders are getting paid, and i think there's a high degree of confidence in that i think it takes some pressure off the market and if the market is not pressuring washington, it becomes an odd cycle it's not threatened them. >> how do you react to that, maya if there's a "thelma & louise" moment and they drive off the clear, what does it look like and how searing would the consequences be if, as most people figure, the government would still find a way to pay interest on its debt, would
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still find a way to pay social security and veterans benefits it would still find a way to pay other kinds of obligations and what might not get paid might be some contractors, might be some employees who get furloughed >> right the question is whether the abrupt kind of crisis situation where markets really kind of freak out and interest rates spike up and this is a problem that's exported around the world or whether it's more of a muddling around and business leaders and the markets kind of onat washington and say we're so tienld of you not getting anything right and we'll go on about our business and you'll fail to governor that's already what's happening. if you look at views around the world on how the u.s. is acting, it's hard to believe this is the behavior of a reserved currency, and treasuries have a financial
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role in the global financial economic system, and that will last for a shorter amount of time if we continue to abuse it. so either there will be a crisis or an eye rolling from other countries who look for ways to diversify from the u.s., or we'll avoid the result but it will be the continues amount that will get things done and the business sector will look at ways to look around washington that's another knot good for washington that's an unhealthy sign about where democracy is right now. >> maya, thank you very much for your perspective brian, thank you as well. the debt ceiling isn't the only headwind for markets. the markets are higher later this week will mark the 100th trading day of the year. the s&p is up 8% historically that's typically a sign to come, and ai is a big
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reason markets are overcoming all of those worries excitement about that technology boosting tech. according to raymond jacques, the big tech stocks have contributed 13ch to the s&p's performance or to performance on the s&p 500, and it's forcing strategists to catch up. the latest, savita, is raising the target joining us now is edg gar getty there could be a lot of centers that benefit i'll start with you. you say roaring' '20s, and i'll say both. >> i say potato, you say potato. look, i think that the 1920s may
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be a good mottle for what start out a couple years before that with the global pandemic t spanish flu that killed millions of people. and then we had a depression in the united states in the 1920s so things must have felt absolutely horrible at the beginning of the decade, and yet it turned out to be the roaring 1920s because of all of the technological innovations. i think the technologies we have now are coming together, robotics, automation, nanotechnologies then, again, ai is sort of the glue that puts all these things together into a technology that increases the productivity of the brachblt technologies of the past increase the brawn, whereas, this is going to supplement our ability to think faster and come up with ideas faster and solutions faster. >> stephanie, how do you react
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to that? i mean is the potential of ai so vast across so many industries that it could be a real productivity and prosperity lifter. >> yeah. i think it's the real deal it's going to be something like $2 trillion to $3 trillion at the end of this decade and annual compound rate is about 33 37b9% per year, and only about 25% of the companies use ai in any way. we've been hearing from companies all across every different sector talking about ai i was going three some of my industrial companies and how they talked about a lot of different ais. inger sol and others but we look at hospitals and smart health care, that could be a $200,000 total progressive
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market of course, there's also robotics as ed mentioned. that's a big part of the industrial side, agriculture, and that sort of thing i think there are a lot of areas, sectors that are going to win. interesting it's been focused on the technology companies that almost everybody else is getting ignored. i think over time we'll recognize this is a productivity enhancer you need stronger compute power, more networking and it will affect other industries. >> i'm trying to think through the ai or macrobusiness cycle at the same time. no question especially for semis coming out of the cycle. what's happening with the rest of the stocks? is it true that everyone el -- there's the debate between the equalweighted bursts and the market kachlt because you have the granularity of so many other
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companies, do you think they're healthy right now? are we going to be okay for the rest of the year is that masking weakness elsewhere? >> i think the companies -- there are a lot of companies and sectors that have done well in this past earnings season, but they're really not getting credit when you go back to tech, yeah, they count for 967% of the year-to-date returns, but there are other parts of it that have done well. software is up 40% cyber security is up 30% that ice 35% of the s&p 500. to the extent they held up, i think the market can hold up eventually they will get credit. so far, not so much. >> ed, let's talk about the rest of the year and what you see for corporate profits and economic growth you know, the earnings have, as stephanie points out, been pretty good for the first quarter.
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do you see that continuing, or are you concerned that not only the comparisons will get tougher, but, number two, the economic prospects might get tougher? >> as you know, they were better than expected, but they were still probably going to be down on a year-over-year basis. i think there were expectations earnings would be down 7%. instead they're coming down 3% that's a positive surprise relative to expectations i think we'll make the low on a year-over-year basis i think that's where the comparisons stopped being tough. i think when we get into the second half of next year, we're going to see single or low double-digit increases on a year over year basis. i think we had a margin basis. the earnings have been squeezed by higher labor costs, higher commodity costs, and i think a
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lot of those issues are being address, i want to add one more point to the points stephanie made let's think of every company being a technology company in the past not all technologies were applicable to tobl all business models, but i think between artificial intelligence and a host of other innovations that are getting integrated, any company not using it is going to be left behind. >> ed, thank you very much always good to see you ed yardeni stephanie link, sank to you. coming up, shares of draft king up today. ubs grading that stock we'll find out in prestock lunch. plus uber cutting back on office space, planning to lease an entire building in san francisco. big ofces fia big problem for many cities. we'll dive into that when power
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for success. less than two years after buying tiffany, the company has doubled its profits, the stock up 50% over the past year we sat down for a rear interview with alexander arnault what did he tell you, robert >> you could call it the lvmh
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formula. with tiffany, it involved a flashy campaign. they got new higher priced products and they're renovate manager of its stores including the manhattan flagship store which cost hundreds of millions of dollars alexander arnault has talked about what they need. >> we want the perfect jewel box versus pressure by the street saying we have to open, we have to open, we have to open i think this store is the real definition of long-term vision. >> lvmh is also boosting its high jewelry line with jewelry pieces costing six and seven figures. you're looking at pictures of a new vip sales room where the least expensive pieces start at
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around $200,000. guys, the art in this store alone is probably valued at over $100 million i didn't realize the tiffany store even before this renovation was one of the top five tourist destinations in all of new york city they're hoping to make it even better now that it's reopened. >> have you been in it i've been there, picked up a few things for kelly, of course. >> yeah. >> but i haven't been in the new one. have you been in >> i vchlt it's interesting. all of the floors are different themes the top floor is the vip salesroom. it almost feels like a very, very luxurious penthouse overliking central park. when you walk in, it's super bright it used to be wood paneling and green enamel now lots of mirrors and lots of
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glitter. >> you can walk in and get a free sizing. anyone what he has done, he's like the buffett of -- i don't know if you call it luxury it's unbelievable. >> he is the richest man in the world for a reason he has done something that everyone thought couldn't be done even when he bought tiffany for $60 billion, they say he was overpaying how could you make it more successful, and they're bringing it around the world with this new formula, and it's working so far, very quickly, much more than anyone expected >> that's not the only news. the beyonce and jay-z house, $200 million one of the most expensive real
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estate transactions. you have to give us the whole scoop. >> the whole scoop is this is just their beach house this is not their main house their main house was an $88 million home i remember when they bought it this house no one had ever seen. a whisper listing was really for sale but off the market. $295 million was the asking price. beyonce and jay-z paying $200 million. that makes it the second most in california and second most in the u.s. it's 7,400 square feet on eight acres. their next door neighbor paid $177 million for his place, so the rest of los angeles is sort of seeing the market top out at the top. malibu keeps drifting higher what's amazing, this is just their beach house, which is for
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now their main house in bel air. interesting how they'll use. >> it 40,000 square feet i mean that is -- i don't know -- >> do they expect to make money on it, robert? at some point -- i could see the argument for people when you look at the people who have bought tons of rae, okay, maybe it's a hedge over time i don't know how this would be expected to perform. >> the history of malibu is people buying properties for prices that at the time seem vastly overpriced and they end up making money over a long time that is eight acres in paradise row which is kind of the billionaires row of malibu great piece of land, extraordinary property we'll see how that property holds up over time it's very modern, all concrete will it look great in eight years? we'll have to see. >> 8 acres, that in itself is
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shocking >> speaking of l.a., the city of angels facing a similar issue to manhattan. vacancy rates are higher in l.a. than in new york diana olick has more hi,dy. >> reporter: you're right. it's got bigger problems the office vai conditioncy rate soared 22% in the first quarter compared with manhattan at 17% this represents 15 million square feet of empty offices, 61% more than prepandemic l.a. leasing buys options al very low. what is being leased is not used very much. average occupancy is 49% that's lower than the national average. west l.a., which has less of crime and traffic, while downtown is finance and law.
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now the reits with the biggest exposure are doug lace emmett, kilroy realty and hudson pachlkt hudson pacific down closer to 50%. douglas emmett by far the most exposure, but all of these are heavy in l.a as for everyone else, there is a flight to quality. the buildings that offer the better amenities, they're faring better than older buildings which are mostly downtown. >> you talk about how it compares with new york how does it compare with the median city across the country in terms of office vacancy and occupancy? >> reporter: well, it's worse. the issue with l.a. is when you head back to the office, in some places it's in dc. you have really good public transit. in l.a., people live far out
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you have people less willing to come back, especially into the downtown area. >> yeah. it's really hit commute, i think, as much as anything wanting to keep people from working from home. if the commute is bad, you want to stay home. >> and the crime rate. >> and homelessness problem we know about in lachl and other cities diana, thank you very much. coming up, caught in the crossfire. micron may have become a pape pine shares wl wnildo at about 3% we'll have a whole lot more details in tech check next
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with t-mobile for business, save more than $1000 bucks versus verizon. and get the new samsung galaxy s23 plus free with no trade-in required. welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. micron shares falling 3% they're off the lows after china says it poses a security risk and is barring chinese companies from buying its chips. christina, why micron? >> it wouldn't be a complete ban on micron products only thought network and
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infrastructure related management earlier this morning said those chips should not be affected by the ban, which should mitigate the revenue impact to a certain extient. laugh year's revenue was 11% and came from china. the 11% would shrink down to 2% in total revenues. it's a little smaller than what we normally would think the impact would be and falls in line with what the cfo said, that it would be impacted by single distinct percentage the shares are falling, but they're off the lows from this mor morning. chinese companies could pivot their supply chains completely away from micron out of fear of barring in the future.
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the u.s. does have some leverage given samsung and sk hynix are maintaining normal operations amid all of the export restrictions it's because they have boundaries in china. the sentiment on the street is because they are motive. that would offset any drop in revenue that we're seeing from this ban. >> the scuttlebutt from traders, kristina, they're easy to replace. we're asking them to step in and not supply it. we're leaving it up to the companies. but at some point, you do wonder or people are speculating, could some of the more significant companies be next, those who make cpuess and even cpus, even an apple.
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>> micron is the least important to china compared to the other players because and and qualcomm they're more important to the country, which is why they may not be targeted. qualcomm, there was a quick little note. they say potentially they could stop paying their payments maybe qualcomm would be affected but the united states right now needs to get other allies on board like south korea the two names we talked about. or else this could escalate a lot further. it shows how intertwined all of the supply chains are right now. lastly, kelly, there has been tension. micron sued a taiwanese firm several years ago. that could be part of the reason mining kron was a little bit of this target in this escalation. >> thank you very much. let's goat bertha coombs for
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the cnbc update, up to the minute. >> hi, tyler heefrm's what's happening a that hour. russia is claiming it was balled what it calls a group of saboteurs. they were fighting in a belgoro region. authorities are investigating an apparent gunfight at an off-road vehicle rally in baja. gunmen in one vehicle opened fire on the rally saturday afternoon. they believe it was an organization of org niced crime groups the suspects have not been found. a group of states in the southwest made a deal with the biden administration to protect the drought-stricken colorado
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river. california, arizona, and nevada will voluntarily reduce their water usage until 2026 in exchange for $1.2 billion in federal funding. the colorado river supplies water to more than 40 million people and roughly 5 president obama 5. i guess i should say nebada. that's how they pronounce it. >> that's right, bertha. wall street not showing any mercy. multiple firms slashing target on that one, we'll look at that and three other movers this at three stock lunch after this. >> announcer: tech check is sponsored by comcast business, powering possibilities with comcast business...it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform
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we take a look at chevron. it values pdc at 72 a share, premium of 10% at friday's closing pride. it will boost chevron's output
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by 32,000 barrels a day and its footprint in oil and gas chevron down slightly on the news hoar to help trade that stock, ava. do you like it do you sell it do you hold it what >> i called it i have mixed feelings for this one. on one hand i do not like the category anymore i think this will continue, but now for the investor who wants to have an exposure into oil, chevron is not a bad company in fact, it has the best net income margin in its category when it looks -- when you look at its margins, they're above average. a i'm really surprised with their reaction today even though they're paying 11%
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premium, chevron has demonstrated over the years they've been efficient with acquisitions, they're able to incorporate them, and they're cutting down costs it's mixed feelings for this one, so that's why it's a hold. >> hold for chevron. what about nike? biggest loser. it's on the heels of the disappointing resulting from foot locker on friday. eva, do you think it's going to be a read-through to nike or no? >> i think it's a sell if you look at is price to earnings ratio, that's for the average of the category, and now they're also -- they're fundamentals do not look that good most importantly over the last few years. they're $10 billion to $11 billion in cash and that might
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down the road we might see a new exciting growth opportunity. there's a lot of competition out there. you have smaller companies entering the market, and so it's a sell. let's move onto another one that's been doing pretty well. draftkings. >> yes draftkings is a buy. in fact, we've had an overweight on this one in 2023. it's actually helped us a lot with our appreciation with 20% for a large cap fund and we'll remain, we'll continue to have an overweight on this one because it's a growth story. they have 85% revenue growth compared to 10% for the rest of the category that's eight times bigger than the average of their category. now they're entering new markets faster than ever they're adding new customers faster than ever once they enter into the market. i think it's a distracktive
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technology they've been able to increase sports betting in general. a long-term buy for snus the markets have been performing pretty well, eva, even in the face of the debt ceiling issue that is looming and may or may not get so are you surprised the market is as resilient as it has been? >> no, i'm actually bullish. as we're seeing long-term interest rates coming down, housing, which is the big effort component of the cpi, 30%, 40%, is going to drop significantly that's what the case-shiller index shows. there's been a lot between the case-shiller index and the cpi once housing is reflected. we'll see it drop, which is really good news for the markets, especially when it comes to long duration, to get the profits down. >> thank you very much for your
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welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. 4202 on the s&p. we're above the 4200 level it's a quarter percent of a gain the dow is still down 73 points. check out this
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we're watching mge it's up 28% in a week. it reports it's close to selling property around the garden in new york city as part of the plan to rebuild penn station could obviously be a lucrative deal here. this stock is up nearly 30% after all of these events in a very short period of time. we also want to check on the bond market where yields have been jumping i saw the 10-year at 372 yeah, we're pretty much back to those levels as the market tone improves again, 372 on the ten ten-year debt ceiling negotiations, we've got neel kashkari saying it's a close call whether to raise interest rates. >> thanks, kelly coming up, the economic challenge. and we're not talking about whether the fed should raise rates or solve the debt ceiling
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issue. we're talking about the national economics challenge. we'll speak to the winners next. >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco, a global leader in fixed income. (vo) this is more than just a building. it's an ai-powered investment firm with billion-dollar views. a cutting-edge data-security enterprise. yes, with a slide. a perfect location for the world's first one-hour delivery. an inspiration for the next workout cult. and enough space for a pecan-based nutrition bar empire. it could happen. because there's space for any dream on loopnet. the most popular place to find a space.
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welcome back to "power lunch. time now, the winners of the economics chachlkt let's get back to steve liesman steve liesman. >> i'm here with the winners of the advanced division, the adams smith division put on by the council for economic education these students beat 6500 students from around the country. from carmel, indiana >> i understand how to world works and the different models, all very interesting. >> william, what should the fed do in june i really need to know. >> i think people at the fed probably have more expertise than a high school student
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but i'll leave it up to them. >> jordan, you talked about a book you read that the fed was too easy for too long. give me an idea. does that cause inflation? >> i think it's definitely complicated. looking at the asset market, like real estate, there can be asset price inflation in addition to normal prices of goods in the economy >> tell me why do kids need to know economics >> i think economics is more than just a science. i think it really does explain how the world works. you can relate it to any subject. >> william, be careful, your favorite economist right now >> keatons he's been influenced in economics. his fiscal policies on spending and taxes are really important before him there was a lot of letting recessions happen.
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now we can help people during recessions. >> richard, do you know more about economics than your parents? >> probably. >> do you tell them stuff they ought to be doing or shouldn't be doing do you give them instructions? you just keep it to yourself >> i don't think that would be appropriate. >> you think mom, dad, you shouldn't be doing that, right >> of course. >> jordan, in june, should the fed hike, hold or cut? >> the economy is kind of all over the place now we might see the debt ceiling -- >> if they don't figure something out and we go to recession, they'll definitely want to stop and ease their policy they want to look at the numbers and make a rational decision. >> amoga, tell me something, when it comes to inflation, what do you see as the primary cases of inflation >> i think it really is -- has
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to do with the labor market, the supply side, really add to the problem. once you figure that out, maybe then -- >> do you have a forecast for inflation? >> i mean, looking at the current situation. >> what do you think >> 4.7. >> tyler, you've got a question. go ahead >> if you'd rely it. i'm curious as to what they had to do or learn or know in order to win this competition. what kinds of tests, questions, problems, what have you did they have to solve? >> so the question is, i'll ask you, william what did you have to learn, do, know, study to get here to learn the things that you've learned >> our high school we have amazing economics teachers that have prepared us well. were for this competition, review all the concepts of ap microeconomics we tried to learn a lot of
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obscure questions in quizzes and tests. >> you want to thank somebody? >> yes, mrs. hargrove, because she recommended i join. >> jordan? >> our sponsor, ms. faust. she's incredible >> tyler, kelly, back to you from the national economics challenge. i guess we'll see you next year with -- i don't know these kids, i think they're smarter than the chat bots. >> the question you showed, i totally got wrong. >> their intelligence is not artificial ms. hargroves and ms. faust, thanks. >> i read 30 questions and maybe got three or four right. >> congratulations to those students steve, thank you for bringing that to us steve liesman doing a great job as emcee there we'll take a look at other key
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welcome back everybody less than three minutes to go. the clock is ticking let's start with what's going on with meta in the european union. eu fining them $1.3 billion for sending eu user information back to the u.s raising pressure on the u.s. to complete a deal. meta shares have doubled this year, ty, a lot of people
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feeling like the eu jumped the gun. they were working on something more collaborative is it just a shakedown >> the eu is very aggressive about privacy issues and they're farther ahead, some would say, than the united states is. this is an aggressive move on their part. >> a few months to try to pull something larger together. >> a year or so ago there were no cars on dealership lots now their availability of new cars and trucks on dealer lots bouncing back. for some brands stronger than expected the replenished inventory shaping up to be an important test for car companies many saying in recent years they would keep availability permanently constrained. that keeps the price up as well. if you don't have inventory there, you can juice the price. >> unlike the housing market where it's harder to add new supply, it's really not in the car market we are getting ipos. cava, anybody been to cava
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they're filing to go public. as part of the filing they reported a 13% jump in revenue to about half a billion, 263 locations, a lot picked up through zoe's kitchen. >> another one i don't know. may their future be like chipotle. olive oil prices are soaring after a drought in europe leads to a poor shar vest. olive oil at the whole sale level about $6.00 a liter. but shipping and other costs mean it's higher for the consumer >> this kind of things will keep headline pressure on inflation expectations even though it's coming down. we have to mention what happened brooks koepka is the champion but michael block, a 46-year-old tour pro who qualified for the
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tournament and made a hole-in-one. >> he finished 15th but one over for the tournament very good. >> 15th place finish $300,000 which is about what you'd have to do -- >> he dunked that hole-in-one. it didn't bounce and roll in >> he said i enjoyed the hell out of it. welcome to "closer bell. i'm scott walker at the new york stock exchange the make-or-break hour shares lower not having a d dramatic impact on the markets here is your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. s&p 500 trying to close above 4, 4,200. helped by a nice day from the communication services sector.

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