it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. we begin with progress from washington after the latest round of debt ceiling talks with biden and mccarthy however, no deal on wall street, recession warning signs growing louder and doing something for the first time in four decades. and speaking of red flags, why the bullish trend in big tech may be coming to an end. the streaming wars heating up this morning courtesy of

david zaslav and one stock surge ahead of the open it is tuesday, may 23rd, 2023 and you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's kick off the day with the check of the stock futures a mixed session yesterday. nasdaq closed at highest since august of 2020 this morning, the knacknasdaq u fractionally we have seen movement in the bond market. we see the yield on the 10-year treasury creep up over the month and over the last two days at 3.72 we see the same story with the 2-year treasury at 4.36. we will talk more about the

inverted yield curve later in the show we are looking at energy specifically oil let's start with wti $71.80 brent crude is $75.75. down .30%. natural gas. this morning, it is down .50%. we are watching crypto this market trades around the clock. looking at bitcoin below $30,000 mark that is key. at $27,300 ethereum is up over 2% for a check on the early trade in europe is arabile gumede who is standing by in the london newsroom. arabile. >> good morning, frank i haven't spoken to you in a while. i join you with the market going red today. across the board, most of the

counters have hit negative territory with the likes of the smi and cac 40 at 1% down. only the ftse 100 is managing some gains as well with. of course, the u.s. debt ceiling talks in the markets with the purview. you have pmi numbers across the board today. it seems like the two-pace economy exists within europe at this point in time the uk and across that board showing down services and manufacturing and dock p composite pmi is down. and you look at the gainers and losers the stocks we have seen are down which is mondi it out performed yesterday even b.a.t. managing gains as well today one really issue to focus on is julius baer which showed a rise

and assets under management at the start of the year. net inflows totaling 3.5 billion swiss francs for now, 7% lost for the company at present frank. >> yaarabile, good to see you, too. we have to keep this bromance going. great to see you live in our london newsroom. to the latest developments with the debt ceiling talks. president biden and kevin mccarthy unable to strike a deal yesterday afternoon. the two men meeting for 90 minutes. the speaker offering a hopeful tone on the talks with over a week to go until the x date when the u.s. could run out of cash brie jackson joins us from washington with more brie, good morning >> reporter: good morning, frank. the monday meeting at the white house ended without a concrete deal, but both sides say they are working toward agreement meanwhile, the treasury

secretary is again warning of the severe consequences of the default. >> our debt is too large >> reporter: different meeting same outcome no deal on raising the debt limit this morning follow a high stakes talk with president biden and house speaker kevin mccarthy both called the one-on-one discussion productive. >> we only talked about where our differences were we talked about items that -- ideas. we are asking the staff to get back and run through the ideas to see if we could come to agreement. >> reporter: president biden expressed optimism before the meeting started. >> we still have disagreements >> reporter: negotiation teams held late night talks on capitol hill where divisions on spending cuts remain. >> it is important we spend less money this year.

>> president biden has offered house republicans to freeze spending at current fiscal year levels the extreme maga republicans rejected it. >> reporter: in the letter to the leadership, janet yellen doubled down on the june 1st deadline warning a default could cause severe hardship to american families across the country, there is a growing sense of frustration. >> they will make it happen otherwise they won't be in office >> reporter: with social security checks and other benefits hanging in the balance, there is an increasing pressure on federal leaders to act. as part of the negotiations, house speaker mccarthy says the new tax revenues and military spending cuts are off the table. frank. >> brie, a lot of focus on the house speaker. did the president have anything

to say >> reporter: frank, president biden did not speak with reporters, but sent out a statement. saying he and the house speaker agreed the only way to move forward is with a good faith by p partisan agreement both will be back at the table the next couple days. >> brie jackson live in d.c. thank you. turning back to wall street. recession indicator flashing significals of the down turn the spread with the 2/10 year treasury notes inn hahave been inverted since july of last year more than 220 trading days for more on this, let's bring from ivory johnson founder of del delancey management. >> good to see you, frank. >> we have been talking about this more months

220 trading days all the way since july of last year in your mind s thi, is this rec indicator or is this giving us a different sense? >> i still think it is rec reces recessionary the growth prospects are not there. that is showing the 10-year being less than the 2-year that is a strange conundrum. you have the yield curve and earnings growth negative or gdp growth was 12% two years ago and now less than one. yet the markets keep marching higher now it is time to focus on the process and stick to the principles i suspect if you have 17 at the table and you drew a 4, that doesn't mean you made a good decision you got lucky. if you look at gdp growth it is

showing deceleratdecelerating, d from to protect it. >> let's talk more about the down side. especially when it comes to down side protection portfolios you are looking at commodities in the near term why commodities instead of tech? tech is booming. >> right actually, commodities have been negative because there's no growth you saw that last week oil last month and corn and soybean was down 10% commodities won't protect kyou n this environment if you look at the nasdaq earnings growth is down 10% it is 16 below from the cycle highs. it is also the growth which is very concentrated. >> ivory, you are bullish on

gold which is a commodity? >> gold is a safe haven. that's why i have been bullish on gold. you can buy gold minors. i make the distinction with gold and oil and natural gas and soybean and corn >> gold is a way to protect in the near term? >> i certainly believe so. it protected us in the last year it is seen as a safe haven anytime you see growth decelerate, you get a better chance of out foreperforming the market. >> what do you get into when you get out of gold? >> i think you get out of gold when you see the gdp and inflation accelerate

you go from bad to go which would be great i don't think the debt ceiling would impact gold. our economy will still be in the same place the debt ceiling -- if we default on our debt, that is another ball game. >> we have to leave the conversation there ivory johnson, thank you a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. it is not tv and not even hbo max. the new service set to hit the app stores and what activists want to see from yelp. then later, jim cramer on the debt ceiling talks and why wall street is over it before the deal is done a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us is it possible?

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the latest in the streaming wars warner bros. and discovery launch hbo max and now max it will offer several tiers. it will range in price and quality. and it is not just warner bros paramount combining with showtime next month. this comes with increased prices for subscribers and re-branding

as paramount plus with showtime. joining me is matt matthew harr. what does this tell us about the streaming service and do we still see the streaming wars >> i think streaming is the primary conduit for delivering video against linear i think max is an excellent position given the portfolio content and original movies and a kids and sports. yes, there is a streaming war, but it is coming from a good position given the brand name of hbo and other content they have. >> let's talk about warner bros. discovery. you have the second highest price target on the street at

$26. it is trading $12 a share. g give us a sense of the potential to have sports how does that shape your thoughts on the company and streaming service? >> i think this is a great risk/reward balance. we picked it up last year after it imploded. i think you have the protect of the double digit free cash flow yield and lots of progress on the cost control being orchestrated and premiere content with the library and active production pipeline with the hits like "house of the dragon" and others hbo was really in with the max the legacy turner businesses were mismanaged for a number of years. it is a matter of restoring the

lost years as opposed to doing something from the standing start. they are in an excellent position and one of the prime players, no pun intended, over amazon over the period of time. >> there is turner sports which has the nba. the studio show "inside the nba" that people identify with the league the potential for this service to have the nba, is that a game changer? you mentioned "house of dragon" and "flash" movie as well as other hits. >> nba and college basketball and nhl is important to turner sports and programming posture over there zaslav, the ceo, has gone back on nba you see how important it is with the games this year and the

conference finals it is a close relationship between turner and nba tv. they are housed in the same studio charles barkley and ernie johnson. they have really big wallets out there. what saves you is the rsn and possibility of more games available. it is possible to have the nba and other streaming services as well i think to some extent, everyone could live happily under after in that circumstance >> matthew, price target of $26. great to have you here. >> thank you now turning to a news alert. regulators have dropped the investigation into the alliance for open media license policy.

members of the alliance include go google, amazon, apple and meta they are looking into anti-competitive behavior over the aom streaming software here is a look at how the companies are trading in the market after the decision. alphabet and meta down i'm not sure if this is impacting the companies. eu anti-trust regulators dropped the investigation into the video licensing policy these tech companies are in the alliance coming up here on "worldwide exchange," big money moverers and catie wood's biggest bet much more on "rlidwodwe exchange" when we come back after this

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welcome back cnbc's ceo council of summit on the west coast this week leaders in business and finance, but culture and sports are carbon coming together. top executives exchanging ideas as debates rage over the nation's finance and a.i. revolution and escalation with the u.s. and china tensions. "squawk box" is live with more for more, go to cnbc.com

nike ceo sat down with sarah eisen. >> we believe trade is a good thing. we believe consumers benefit from that around the world we believe that helps employees. we believe it can promote peace and understanding. the business has to step up when the political institutions are in the state they're in today. so, we're committed to being a global company whether it is china or other markets yes, there is risk >> decoupling would bes disastrous with china. if you look at the trade flows, both ways, they play a mutually valuable role. you know, we believe in global trade. we will continue to try to do everything we can to support

that >> we'll have more later in the day. now time for three stock stories in the morning cathie wood adding to the ark etf and ark innovation etft. is up 50% since it reported this month where it boasted a second straight quarter of profit and potential for revenue uptick related to a.i shares are up this morning shares of zoom video higher after the company posted ticking down after the company reported for fiscal q 1 and revenue increase zoom ceo saying the results reflect growth following a 9%

increase in the customer base. the cfo will have more coming up on the interview at 8:40 a.m. on "squawk box. and capital management built up a stake in yelp. it is looking at options including a sale it is among the five biggest shareholders and is suggesting that yelp could be sold for $70 a share. share prices up 13% this morning. and coming up, what tiktok is doing to ease national security concerns as it get set for a legal tied in montana. and jamie dimon with the regional banking sector. that is all coming up when "worldwide exchange" returns

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consumers. and jamie dimon out with a warning for banks and potential rising worry for the sector. it is tuesday, may 23rd. you arewatching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." thanks for starting your morning with us. let's check on the u.s. stock futures. after a mixed session yesterday, nasdaq closed the highest level since august and now the futures are a mixed picture. s&p and dow down fractionally. speaking of the nasdaq, tech is the star of the markets this year look at this this is the xlktetf. it is up 20% year to date. that run could come to an end with the technical signals showing the etf is now in overbought territory with the

indicator of 70.8. our data team adds 21of the 60 components have an rsi above 70. we are talking about microsoft and alphabet time for a check of the top stories and including tiktok taking action over a ban of the social media app silvana henao is here with more. >> frank, good morning tiktok officially suing montana's attorney general to try to stop that state ban of the app. lawyers for the china based company argue the ban violates the first amendment adding the threat raised by montana in the law is not something state officials can attempt to regulate tiktok is seeking to have the law which has not gone into effect yet overturned. tiktok will soon give oracle full access to the data for the

social media app according to bloomberg, that includes source code, algorithm and content material in the push to ease national security concerns. jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon out with a warning on the potential of fresh risks to the banking sector commercial real estate is likely the area to cause problems for lenders. and oracle co-founder larry ellison is looking to put his money behind 2024 gop presidential candidate tim scott. sources tell cnbc that el lison has donated $30 million to the super pac supporting the senator since the 2022 midterms and plans to at least double that amount ellison attended the campaign announcement yesterday and senator praising him calling him one of my mentors. frank. >> silvana henao, thank you.

turning back to the debt ceiling talks and developments president biden and speaker mccarthy failing to reach a deal at the white house yesterday afternoon. speaker mccarthy calling it productive with a week left to avoid a default. our kayla tausche joins us from washington kayla, good morning. what are the two sides saying following the conversation >> reporter: frank, good morning. negotiators met last night to build on the positive momentum established by president biden and kevin mccarthy. on the phone on sunday, despite not reaching a deal, they said it was productive. there are areas of disagreement, but they reill terated that deft is off the table and the only way to move forward is the bipartisan agreement mccarthy speaking to reporters after the meeting and said he

thought there was room to improve. >> i actually believe at the end of the day we can come to agreement. that's why we're together. why it was productive today and not getting progress is because we talked about where our differences were we talked about items. we are asking the staff to get back and run through those ideas to see if we could come to agreement. >> reporter: the two sides are arriving at some common ground sources tell cnbc and nbc news unlocking $60 billion of unspent covid aid and reducining paymens to drug companies. that could save up to $200 billion over ten years frank, it is not the $4.5 trillion that republicans are looking for, but it is a start it keeps the talks moving. we will see what staff level

negotiations can hammer out today after meeting last night >> a lot of talk behind the scenes kayla, goldman sachs putting the odds of the deal getting done at 30%. the bank says it is more like complete early next week what is your sense and what are your sources telling you what you are seeing? >> reporter: certainly getting full text of the deal takes a long time and a heavy lift reaching an agreement and then allowing for a three-to-five days to get text together is a reasonable assumption. it doesn't seem like that time existing here. it is good to see both sides avoiding default they could do a short-term debt limit increase of a month to four months to align with the september 30th government funding deadline that is something we heard that some biden administration

officials believe might be the best case approach as of now, they don't want to seem like they are not negotiating to the deadline. that is the deadline they're working toward they have other levers they can pull if they get close to the date and neither side wants a default. >> i don't think anybody wants default. kayla tausche, great reporting the debt ceiling standoff is not rattling the stock market. investors seem confident a deal will be reached to avoid a default. the s&p is up 9% this year the highest level since last august the vix trading near the lowest level since 2021 however, the bond market is showing signs of unease. the yield on the 1-month is triggering a concern if the u.s. can pay bills after june 1st

let's talk more about getting a deal over the finish line is jeannette lowe >> great to see you. >> trading close to the all-time high at 5.8% big risk premium when it comes to the one month does the sentiment reflect the norm in your mind? >> there has to be some measures put into the market to have a little bit of fear if we are going to cross that x date this is always a hard thing in washington because we go down to the wire it makes it more difficult for people to know if there is a guarantee that the u.s. is actually going to find a debt ceiling deal and get it across the finish line. you are seeing risk built in over the near term as we look ahead to this june 1st deadline.

you know, our view is we think the x date is what they are focused on right now they are focused on the june 1st deadline as kayla mentioned. there are options if they did not get a deal by then in general, the players in the room are trying to make sure they get something done by june 1st. >> translate d.c. talk on sunday, biden and mccarthy had a productive call and we still hear no deal is productive code for something? >> productive is at least constructive and positive. it does mean they are making movement i think if you look at a week ago, you saw them talking from their corners. now they are getting into the weeds. they are talking about budget items and they can change and maneuver that is important. from our standpoint, we continue to see progress. obviously there was a pause over the weekend on friday when the

negotiators left of the room and said they would take a pause after that, you started to see mccarthy and biden get back together and talking on the phone on sunday and having the meeting last night i'm sure they will meet again today and the next couple days if needed. the fact we are getting into the weeds here shows we are likely to get a deal. i think because we are looking at that june 1st deadline as that x date, no one wants to cross because it would have a bigger market impact they are working to make sure a deal is happening. >> a lot of confidence about a deal goldman had research before the meeting saying 30% chance of a deal this week 70% chance of deal by early june a lot of confidence a deal will be done. what about the u.s. credit rating in we the system?

>> i think there is that risk out there. we have been surprised by how quiet the credit rating agencies have been. i think if you look back at 2011, you had the s&p give fair warning to some extent they were looking at a downgrade that downgrade happened after the debt ceiling deal was reached. part of that is they felt they needed more spending cuts. this time around, you know, th debt ceiling fights are never enjoyable and they are always gut-wr gut-wrenching. i feel the process this time is less toxic the closer we get to june 1st and it looks like we are not getting a deal, we could get something from the credit agencies. >> that would be a big deal for the u.s. economy jeannette lowe, thank you. we go from jeannette lowe to

lowe's the next guest lays out why it is no home depot "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment

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upgrading chevron from buy to hold chevron shares are under performing and it is on par with the eu peers another price target raise is nvidia raising the price target a.i. position is a medium term driver and a pair of upgrades from goldman sachs. raising each to a buy. goldman calling it a player coming into view and the myriad profile is not reflected in the share price. shares of both up big in the pre-market up 9%. earnings in the consumer is taking center stage with results from lowe's and dick's sporting goods and best buy lowe's reports at the top of the hour for the home improvement trends with customers less eager to spend on remodels the earnings on the back of home

depot results last week and reporting the worst revenue miss in 20 years. let's talk more about this with michael who is our retail analyst. >> good morning, frank. >> looking at shares of lowe's in the pre-market. results coming up in 30 minutes from now what are you expecting and is home depot a read from what you are expecting from lowe's? >> we expect lowe's down 3% which is in line with the consensus. there is a chance it will be more cautious given some of the softer trends which occurred this year. in response to the second question, home depot is a read for lowe's this morning. keep in mind home depot called out california as an area of weakness lowe's has 6% of stores in

california versus 12% for home depot. home depot saw under performance in the pro business. the pro business accounts for 25% of the business at lowe's versus 50% for home depot. there are reasons to be more optimistic at lowe's than home depot. it is still clear there is give back for the home improvement category we expect to see that with lowe's this morning. >> what is causing that give back or slowdown in sales? the slow down in the housing market or consumers being a bit stretched? >> i think it sis a couple of things we spent time sitting at home and doing home improvement projects and now we shift to leisure and traveling. the consumer is stretched. a lot of excess savings has been worked down.

as the consumer has less money to spend, they are being more discerning some of the projects are being scaled back in home i am the prov - home improvement we expect this to be scaled back as we work through the softer patch, we get through stable demand to benefit home depot and lowe's. >> we have to leave it there i redid my screens and cleaned out the garage if you want to come by, you are welcome. >> i will. >> thank you, michael. ahead here on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know today and kari firestone lays out the trading day ahead and her pick for a really big tech play. and cnbc is celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage month in may here is apothecary founder and

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live shots from around the world. we are looking at london, hong kong and nashville and washington, d.c. time for the wex wrap up six stories you need to know before the opening bell. zoom losing in extended trading despite better earnings and forecast the revenue is a gain of 2% from a year ago and tcs capital revealing a 4%

stake in yelp and exploring options and including a sale believing it could get $70 a share. yelp shares are surging on that report top investors at british american tobacco are looking for a buyback program to boost the company's ailing stock price walgreens reaching settlement for theranos blood tests terms of the deal have not been provided tesla's first shipments from shanghai are starting to show up for sale in canada former fed reserve chairman ben bernancke making the case of a soft landing which is possible for the central bank

in a paper, bernancke argues the fed can beat back inflation with a rise in data we get new home sales numbers and lowe's is out in a few minutes with results from dick's sporting goods and toll brothers and lorrie logan is set to speak at 9:00 a.m. top of mind for the investors is the deal ceiling talks and jim cramer notes the wall of worry here is jim from last night. >> buyers who were everywhere could have thrived in recessions and decided bonds don't merit ma -- matter they are not worried about the possibility government default is it possible the debt ceiling

stalemate is meaningless look at what went up the stocks of companies without much money and terrible quarters the cathie wood stories. the buyers of the stocks of these companies are indifferent to what is happening now. >> that was jim cramer joining me now is kari firestone. kari, what do you think? does jim have it right is this falling off the wall of worry? >> hi, frank it seems to be of less concern to wall street than we expected. if we do default on our debt, that's not going to be good. the market has continued to go up sub 9.p5% this year the market is not always correct in its assessment.

if we get to a week from now and we don't have agreement, of course that course, that is a risk you have to take it seriously that there is a chance we won't reach agreement. >> what do you make of the one-month t-bill right now? what does this say to you that the deal will get done in a an t -- done in a timely manner? >> for it to trade at that high rate is amazing. people should take advantage of it if they have an opportunity i'm not sure we will see 5.t8% for long as jim stated, there are concerns driving up treasuries who knows where the treasury would go if there was a default. i think the volatility is

signaling short-term distress and concerns than a relief rally in the bond market we will see what happens in a week >> obviously you, you have a lo clients. what are you advising when it comes to portfolio protection? is there something to do to protect your portfolio >> sure. we think so. we have not done anything dramatic as to raise tons of cash because we're concerned that the market is going to have a dramatic decline that's beyond where we are considering. there is always resolution it is about timing what we decided to do is take money off the table from stocks that had strong runs up. we trimmed a number of names and we decided that there are so stocks with big exposure to government contracting and we should scale those back and add

names with more protection and less concern about being paid by the government for example, we trimmed some holdings in the large defense contractor a very good stock over the years. that is one we decided to have less exposure to and wabtec it makes freight wcars and light rail it has been a good stock we trimmed that name we added to nextera. we felt that those were very inexpensive names. it is a futility. we like the sustainable energy aspect to it and thermo fisher. it is a great stock in covid and we like the price.

>> kari, the nasdaq turned negative a few minutes ago all futures are in the red right now. i want to talk about the market run-up a lot of people pointing to microsoft, alphabet and nvidia a lot of index investors watch the show are you concerned those few stocks at the top are moving the market higher? >> exactly of course, that is a concern if 80% of the market gains this year can be attributed to ten names, that is too narrow. the other names trade at 14 times earnings the word that we've used is reemergence. if we are able to solve the debt ceiling problem and avoiding a recession as we have so far, maybe we will see reemergence of the rest of the market because it is trading at a reasonable m

mul multiple >> kari, thank you for the insight. futures turning in the negative. nasdaq in the negative joining the s&p and dow. that will do it for "worldwide exchange." thanks for watching. "squawk box" is coming up next when i was his age, we had to be inside to watch live sports. but with xfinity, we get the fastest mobile service and can stream down the street or around the block! hey, can you be less sister, more car?

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good morning speaker mccarthy saying his meeting with president biden was productive, but they haven't reached a deal on the debt ceiling. we take you live to washington for the latest. a new milestone for market red flags. we show you the signal in treasury flashing recession warning since july of last year. and home improvement retailer lowe's set to report.

it is tuesday, may 23rd, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from nasdaq here in times square i'm becky quick along with melissa lee. s&p futures are off by 6 nasdaq down 11 everybody is waiting to see what happens with the potential deal to avoid a debt default. if you are looking at treasury yields, you will see it looks like the 10-year treasury is 3.7% 2-year tre