get cpi, ppi, and jobs reports before that june meeting right now, we think they're on pause. we don't see cuts this year. there's a chance that they could raise again. that's going to take some -- that's going to be a big headwind to the nasdaq >> meagan, thank you very much meagan horneman. i want to thank brian sullivan for being here today. >> good to be here >> right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. see you tomorrow ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, live at post nine of the new york stock exchange faber has the morning off. historic morning when you consider the record that nvidia may set in single-day market gains. speaker mccarthy instructing negotiators to work 24/7 as it's is under review from fitch and morning star

our road map begins with nvidia's blowout, now targeting the trillion dol by strong a.i. chip demand. that negative > and best bu consumers remain cautious as electronics sales slow let's begin with nvidia. the stock is surging, closing in on that trillion dollar valuation, getting a big boost from a.i. chip demand. this is jensen huang talking about a.i. on the call last night. >> we've seen in a lot of places now that you can't reasonably scale out datacenters with general personal computing and that accelerated computing the is path forward and now it's got a killer app called generative a.i., so the easiest way to think about that is your trillion dollar infrastructure, every quarter's capex budget would lean very heavily into generative a.i., accelerated

computing infrastructure, everywhere from the number of gpus that would be used in the capex budget to the accelerated switches and accelerated networking chips that connect them all >> jim, this morning, the goldman desk says it's probably the best tmt print they've seen since zoom in 2020 >> i think that's wrong. zoom in 2020 was aided by illness. this is just brilliance. and the calm nature of this man and his humility is so stark with what's occurring, and even just his -- the way he was speaking in somewhat of a flat way. he will not be in anyone's face, but to translate for our viewers what he is saying is that right now, a datacenter has about 5% of his material, gpu, and 95% cpu, what's in your pc, and that

needs to flip. and it's going to be 95% his materials and 5% cpu so, this is going to happen at a level of speed that is shocking people, and the reason is because when all of those orders, the inventories that you heard, the problems that taiwan semi, things had dried up because of the lull, he put in all -- he went all in and procured all that he would ever need for the next year that's why the numbers -- you could have such a guide up i mean, you're going from people looking for $7 billion up to $11 billion. that's because he has it it's in hand >> and that's a quarter guide. >> yes, and what's going to happen, he told me, just imagine you have an iphone 5, and suddenly, the iphone 14 comes out. none of the apps on the iphone 14 work on the 5, so you have to upgrade, and this cycle is a

ten-year period before we -- everybody gets there, but because he had the foresight to have the gpus now, six weeks six weeks. everybody who needs it wants it. i'm in awe of this man i don't wear typically my true dog tags that he gave me, which is, of course, my -- i named my dog -- this is our second dog, and jensen felt it was important that i get the second dog renamed nvidia, but i renamed everest nvidia, and i said that this is about as high as -- i put it in the club and i went to own it, don't trade it, and he was happy because that's the apple status that i have but it was all because i -- if you meet him, he's so compelling, because again, he's a teacher. he mostly talks about how this will cause less waste. one of the first things he said is the great thing about --

there we go. good time stamp there. what he's doing is also uses far less energy. that was when -- i had to. >> well, it's -- and i'm glad you pointed that out, because jim has been recommending nvidia back to '17. as we've looked for ways to show that, there's no better way to put your money where your mouth is than by naming someone you love >> i renamed everest, our rescue mutt, nvidia >> now, of course, barrons wrote it up. this is my life in a nutshell, and i'm glad ma, listen to this you'll love this cnbc's adorable lunatic of evening stock trade, jim cramer, a short while ago told listeners that nvidia has displaced intel. the intel of your generation is

nvidia it's like, laugh no >> that's barrons? >> i love, "lovable lunatic. no, adorable >> that's an incredible call it's going to carry you a long way. >> it's him. >> but i always like to remind you, you wrote a book once called "get rich carefully" where you say 20% gains, there's no shame in taking money off the table. >> there is. i'm not going to deviate from that i told those guys, look, i mean, i don't know what to do. portfolio management says you can't let it run this much at the same time, no one has ever seen what's happening, and it's -- a lot of it is because he had the foresight to say, you know what? something's going to come along and make it so that -- he didn't know it was going to be chatgpt -- make it so people realize -- like, he thought that when i talked to it and came back to new york and said, paint me a cezanne seascape, and it could do it, we could interact,

somehow he thought there would be people who i could -- i, among others, could tell a story which people would realize, you talk to this and it has a conversation and then it takes you to the next level. i wasn't, but chatgpt did. and it just so happened that he just had -- he has enough to make it so that oracle, so that alphabet, so that amazon, so that microsoft in particular, so that meta can do what they need to do now. see, a lot of people -- one of the things they were saying is that typically, you know what? there will be a -- there will be a dean out, and then maybe next year we can fit in. he said, no. six weeks. >> and because of that, is this a single stock story, in a sense? i mean, how many others can play like that? >> they did buy this company, and that's going to be the plumbing to make it connect. but they said, you know what there will still be some room,

inte intel, if you look -- right now on the web for their h-100s, it says you can use some intel product. you can use some amd products. they're not necessarily hurt they're just not as relevant it's just not as important >> right >> i mean, is this the -- the rest in peace for all the others no it's just that they're not going to be at the level, i mean, and you'll need other chips than in, but to do what the world is going to want and write apps, they want you to write apps, and everyone wants to write apps for them, you need their configuration. >> we showed the table of price target hikes today i counted 21 rosenblatt's at the top. jpm goes from 250 to 500 do those make you nervous? >> no. no i mean, i think that those are people who kept thinking that there was too big a run, too big a run, and didn't realize that there was both accelerated

computing that he was winning on and he's winning on generative, and then next week, he's got a speech in taiwan, computex, where they're telling me, look out. all new uses that you hadn't even thought about so i think this is one where i was going to do mt. rushmore >> with four >> with four jensens i was thinking nvidia, amazon, but no, it's just four jensens one with the sunglasses, one on the motorcycle he's so unchanged. not that i'm an aficionado to know him well enough, but he was saying to me, we've got it and we're ready, and if they want it, and it looks like they do want it, and i'm thinking, does he just realize that every single -- the most powerful nation state technologies in the world have their world upside down and at every datacenter where there's a trillion dollars worth of product, that is no longer good. no longer good, because of what this man's come up with.

just rip it out. gut renovation like when you do a house. >> it is an incredible story it's just one piece of the markets today. the dow is hoping to avoid its fifth straight day of losses now as fitch puts the u.s. aaa rating on negative watch they do cite the debt ceiling fight. morningstar says, even if they do get a deal by the x-date, if we sense there are going to be repeated standoffs like this, this credit watch could be more durable. >> that is what s&p said when they downgraded in 2011. and you got a very big backlash from tim geithner who said, you have this formula, and you didn't obey your own formula ever since then, i felt the rating agencies would not bite and come back and say, we should downgrade on the basis of political dysfunction. but fitch is just, listen, your country, not our country, your country is dysfunctional, and so therefore we can't trust your debt >> there is a sense this morning

that a deal is closer, but now we got to start back-timing the writing of the text, 72 hours for review, and getting this thing passed, and that would be, according to some, maybe you get it by next weekend, the 3rd. >> it's feeling 50/50 right now. 50/50 default with the idea that somehow they'll finesse it and not call it a default, but that's how i feel, and when i hear that the speaker is working 24/7 -- i mean, i know the speaker is a man of his word, but he's not in charge that's what people can't -- this is not -- he's a very good man, but he is not in charge. and so, i'm not saying he's titular. i'm saying he may not have the horses >> yep that's -- we've been there >> yeah. >> where the market's watching for votes. coming up after the break, a rare exclusive with the ceo of toll brothers. we'll talk some housing market, of course, the latest quarter,

the way the market's heavily relying on the builders. futures, you'll see how those outside gains -- outsize gains in tech, thanks to nvidia, and we'll keep an eye on all this goatn-seodayng back moment. (vo) this is a place for ambition. a forge of progress. a unicorn in training. a corner to build a legacy. a vision for tomorrow. a fresh start. a blank canvas. a second act. a renewed company culture. a temple for ideas. and a place to make your mark. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space. ♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life

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every day, f businesses everywhere. are asking. is it possible? with comcast business...it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? so we can better protect our customer data? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. all right. here we go toll brothers shares are rallying, as they should, getting upgraded to outperform at rbc capital following an amazing quarter and a very

thoughtful conference call, by the way, so here, joining us at post nine, cnbc exclusive, toll brothers chairman and ceo, doug yearley. doug, it is a delight to have you on your set. >> great to be here. >> this is a conference call where you laid out what's happening in america to get us here to get us to where a million dollar house, many people buy them with cash, and it has to do with a demographic story, but it has to do with underbuilding maybe you can explain to people why it's not inflation as much as just, there was no choice supply is not going to ever equal demand, maybe even in our lifetime >> that's right. this is not an inflation story it's not something to be afraid of when i think the fed is figuring out what to do this is a story about 15 years of underbuilding in this country. there's a huge supply-demand imbalance. on top of that, we have incredible d

incredible demographics right now, 75 million millennials are buying homes in their mid-30s. they're wealthier, more established, and ready to go then you have the 75 million boomers that are going through life changes and they're buying homes as they down-size, and you put all that together, and remember, we took a nine-month pause. when rates went from 3% to 7% last may, from may until the end of '22, we didn't sell many homes as the market digested these new rates and the higher prices that came through covid, and january hits, it's the spring selling season, and the buyers come back out they've absorbed the new rate. they don't love it i don't love it. but there's enough buyers out there with those demographics and with that pent-up demand that the market is still pretty good >> you talk about something because you are a student of this the ratio of new home versus used home for sale and because of the lock-in, as you call it, we just don't have that used home surplus >> so, historically, for many decades, 10 to 15% of the homes sold in this country are new

85 to 90% are resales. today, 35% of the homes sold in this country are new and the reason is because 90% of the mortgages in this country are under 5% most people that own a home have a mortgage in the 3% they either bought the home at a 3% or re-fied into that 3% you can't trade the rate to a new house, so the resell market is incredibly tight. when you go out and look for a home on the resell market, you realize there's no inventory so, now, more people are gravitating to new plus, more people want new i'm proud of what we do. our houses, our communities are really, really nice. we offer choice. we offer the ability to customize your home to your lifestyle, and we can build you a home in the next year, plus we're building more spec inventory to fill that void from the resale market. so, it's a combination of no

homes on the resale market, and this drive, this move towards new construction >> where do you think rates would need to go for people to slip out of those velvet handcuffs and say, okay, i'm willing to be mobile as a homeowner again >> so, i'm really surprised that in the 6% to 7% range, we have as much activity as we do. so, boy, you bring it down into the fives and you're going to have more people that say, i don't need to hang on to this 3.5% remember, a house is not just an investment people are moving on with their lives. they're moving up. the kids are buying their first house. the boomers are buying their down-sized house, you know, i want my kids in a better school and the better town. i want the bigger house. i want the toll brothers home. so, there's a lot more to this than just the straight rate. but i think as that gap narrows, if we can get between the 3.5% we're in and the 5 to 5 fi.5%, we're going to see more activity

>> it bothers me, doug, that your industry sometimes gets a bad rap. it sounds like, why don't they just build a lot more homes and make it so it's okay you have discipline. the discipline is what makes it so that your stock is a great investment you're not doing anything that is wrong, so to speak. you're meeting the demand. it's not like people are saying, here's 10 million new acres, go to work. you have to negotiate hard just to be able to find land to build on >> it's incredibly difficult to get land and title, jim. nationwide there's a few pockets where it's predictable, it's short, but in coastal markets, it can be three to six years to take a raw piece of land through the process that may involve 30 permits before you're ready to go so, there is a very tight, tight supply of land that's not going to change. and yes, our industry gets a bad rap. the average s&p 500 company is

traded at 18 times earnings. we're at six and i don't consider us average. okay >> with a balance sheet, the best ever. well, look, you're a joy to have on, and the passing of mr. toll is -- well, let's just talk about that >> we celebrate bob every day. >> talk about your legacy. you're a philadelphia company. you were a local home builder who went national. you always decided you wanted to be premium when people say that you sold -- sell homes for a million dollars, they might just say, wa wait a second, toll brothers, they are causing the inflation they are at a million. that's just the opposite of what's happened. >> that's right. 40% of our homes today are sold to first-time buyers we have lots of homes at $500,000 or $700,000 we also have homes in california at $2.5 million. we are america's luxury home builder. we built the brand, and we're very proud of that brand, and

bob toll and his brother, bruce, who started the company in the '60s in philadelphia, took it public in the late '80s, he passed away in october i was at his side for 32 years he taught me everything. and it's -- i'm just really proud of what this company does. >> well, i just want people to know that. i think there are some who would say, i know who the problem is with inflation it's toll. they took homes up to a million dollars. the fact is, you even mention in the call, you have bidding wars for homes. you're not even really setting that price >> that's right. >> it's set by the customer. >> what about the notion that -- and it's sort of a simplistic trope at this point, but that cities are seeing outward migration, no one wants to live in cities, and you're net urban, i think of you as urban, yes is that a liability or not >> no. we have a toll brothers city living group that builds in manhattan, jersey city, hoboken, brooklyn we're looking to expand that through covid, the cities were

certainly out of favor but look at the rents in new york right now it's -- there is an out migration. the ability to work from home is certainly giving people some choice there's also a move to the sunshine states, so the south and the west are certainly doing better but i'm not giving up on the cities >> okay, so, you have been an amazing evaluator of, say, old factories that can be turned into really cool homes you can do a lot of really great stuff. >> thank you >> what would you do if you could be a czar of commercial real estate that needs to be turned from office to residential? would you blow the buildings up because it's too expensive what would you do? >> we're seeing it, jim, in the suburbs. we're buying suburban office buildings that are half-rented the future doesn't look so great. we are tearing them down, we're building town holmes. we're building apartments. i'm not seeing that in the city yet. i don't see high-rises come

down i think there's going to be conversion there's already opportunities to convert rental buildings to condo, but that will continue to office buildings look at the flat iron story lately i don't know how that's going to go, but that could go residential. that's one of the options on the table. so, conversion, adaptation, both in the 'burbs and the city is definitely coming. >> we're going to need it. we have way too many empty offices. doug yearley, chairman and ceo of toll brothers, great to have you on the set >> thanks for having me. i want to get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell in about six and a half minutes. don't go ay.wa lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic

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futures processing a lot today. nvidia, obviously, the debt ceiling negotiations, fitch and morningstar, and some eco-data nsptdp revised up to 1.3%. coumion goes up a tenth. we'll watch all that and get the opening bell in four minutes ber? or use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? or power thousands of mobile check-ins? with global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. let's get cramer's "mad dash" as we count down to the opening bell >> one of the better places to shop, just in terms of -- for value, is dollar tree. family dollar. the family dollar doesn't do as well as dollar tree, but they reported same-store sales that weren't that good, but their estimate, horrendous what do they cite, among other things shrinkage. and here's what shrink is. shrink is when people do not pay. and there are -- the only company that has dealt with this effectively in the last quarter was tj tj actually -- tjx, which is a travel trust name -- basically

laid out a scenario that said, we have to control it. now, what they're doing is spending a tremendous amount of money on undercover people stopping it when it happens. most of the stores think there's nothing we can do, our people at the register, it's not their job. tjx is no longer doing that. they're saying, you know what? we have to deal with this in creative ways. dollar tree seems like they don't have the money to address it the way that tjx did, but they must, because this is just a case where there's no coming back if you have this trend line of theft, they have to deal with it spend money. solve it >> yeah. it was a miss, and the guidance, not good let's take a look at the market here at the open as we're back to 4,150 at the big board, kraft technologies celebrating the recent listing of its a.i. large cap tech at the nasdaq, the men's lacrosse league. >> i wanted to ask q, at our

fantastic conference, the inaugural ceo conference, and eddy did not feel that lacrosse had that kind of thing i'm from summit. summit girls just had a big championship win and we are rabid but he just doesn't think that it has it. and i think that what he is looking for, and what apple is looking for is, if we can get mls to be as respected overseas, the production values of mls are pretty good, but no, i tried -- i threw out lacrosse it's a very exciting game to watch. >> it may get there one day, but apple, they take their time. >> and i think they say no to more things than yes i love that eddy said that >> as we watch nvidia at the open, does the market depend on it, keeping today's gains? talk to me about that. >> well, i think that it's kind of shattering. it's tough for a stock to be upset that is a big cap stock. it's a gigantic move it was up 90 at one point.

there's reasons that it shouldn't necessarily trade at a trillion dollars, but i think that what jensen is saying is, okay, everything that we have been doing, all these great hyperscaler companies and amazon web services and alphabet, they don't work their current configurations don't work so, what do you do i said, you know, they're saying, iphone 5 versus 14 i was positing them as, like, i feel like these guys all have flip phones, and out of nowhere comes steve jobs, and he said, listen, i think this is what you're going to be using and they all have a lot of money, and they're -- the product is available that's just -- that's the big difference and it's -- it's a stack you're basically buying a whole stack from nvidia, and you can plug it in so, the answer is that normally i would say this is getting ahead of itself, but because jensen saw this coming and actually has availability for everything that you need, everybody's game is stepped up and we're going to all be

doing -- rely on generative a.i. immediately. >> would you put, maybe not today's action or maybe not today's print, but would you put what's happening at the moment with nvidia similar to what iphone did with that jobs presentation >> so, when i asked jensen about that, i said, isn't it a little bit too parochial, in the sense that that was just one company saying you ought to do this and there were a lot of other companies doing other things and then in this case, it's really only one company doing this, and then there's nobody. jensen doesn't like -- i mean, i am -- yes, i am -- i named my dog after the company, but all i am trying to do is get to explanation, and what he was saying was, you basically have to -- we left behind rather quickly. like, i think when this came out, there was a period for a couple years where you didn't feel like you were being left behind, and there were other

companies. nokia had phones samsung had phones there are no noekkia or samsung there's no verizon store where you go and pick out of three there's just this and their stack because the queries don't work on the other guys' stuff. and so, i mean, if you're mark zuckerberg, and you're saying, you know what? i'm going to wait until samsung comes up with something better, there is none. they just -- nobody else has the stack of h-100s. could happen but remember, you also -- accelerated computing. he's also talking it works for gaming, but this has to do with the fact that there are all these foundries weren't doing anything because everybody knew there was a big glut of pcs so he went to taiwan semi and said, hey, listen, you're not doing anything, i want you to work on these 24/7 a radical proposition to just make billions of dollars, put them in a warehouse. >> this was a -- this is a common theme it's not that other players in a.i. generally were lazy they just didn't triple down the

way some of these other -- >> he did triple down. and i think that at the time, he did it and no one talked about it but he was doing it. and that's why, when he sprung it, as soon as chatgpt, he was ready for that moment. he kept waiting -- we're speaking about jensen huang, the ceo of nvidia. he kept waiting for that moment, and he didn't see it coming. he said that -- what he told me was like, that opened everybody's eyes to, wait a second, there's this something where i can talk to it come back as opposed to type, and then everybody realized, wait a second, i don't want to be the guy who's typing code when everyone else is just talking. and that's why everybody has to switch to nvidia >> 3% gains on s&p, info technology, no surprise. great stat out of goldman this morning, jim, and that is that long onlies and mutual funds are starting to treat what they call super cap tech as cash or as a cash equivalent, and at the very

least, they think that's going to put a higher floor in the s&p, maybe 4,000 >> that, you know, to me, that's rationalization, and i know if you eliminate seven stocks from the s&p, you take them out, then the market and the s&p is down i'd like to think of it a little more like this that these stocks do not have -- while nothing is immune to a downturn or what's going on in washington, these stocks have -- are nation states within they all have great prospects, great management, and they have incredible cash balances so they don't get taken down as easily as they would given the fact that apple, 7% of the s&p, is not going to be taken down as much because they have certain characteristics, but they're not cash equivalents that's like, you know, when cathie wood was talking about cash equivalent, that's just -- no these are stocks in the end, they're still stocks they're stocks >> you talked to slootman last night. >> that was interesting. >> yep, yep.

guidance here, a little soft, at least in the quarter product revenue, and we do, i think, wells reiterates an overweight, but yeah there's been some -- >> let's give you a context before we put the film on. the previous quarter, i thought, was good, but there were people worried about the forecast and he basically said, look, the forecast is the forecast i thought again that he reported a good quarter, but then he said the forecast wasn't that good, and i was saying -- i was being somewhat jocular and saying, oh, but once again, it's the forecast, it really won't matter, right, frank >> we do >> he's pretty bitter. >> take a listen >> we have tremendous, you know, growth in 2021 and all these time frames. we're on the other end of that spectrum right now, but we're not going to stay there. we're going to reconverge to a much more robust pattern if you were to zoom out a little bit and say, let me take a five-year view of the growth here, it is tremendous and very large secular trends,

very big markets are forming here, and we can't lose site of t that by looking at a single period >> yeah. i know that he was not encouraging me to be as encouraging as i was and i do think that snowflake's consumption model is a great model, but he was saying that, look, now, when you want to order, and it goes through the cfo, and when something's really -- i came back and said, the cfo must know this is a better deal than what the other guy's offering and he said, no, jim, it's basically saying to me, jim, you have to understand, it's just not as great as i know you want it to be and that's why i think the selling is justified >> we'll keep our eye on some consumer names ralph lauren, jim, asia up 20%-plus >> i've been saying these guys have gotten it together. they're one of the few apparel companies that has really emerged during this period as survivors. not a lot of them, by the way. i mean, the other day, i was

encouraged by vf corp. that ben was telling a story that wasn't catastrophic, but didn't matter anyway, went down. vf was at one time really an incredible apparel company but ralph lauren's done a lot of things right, and they're also very imaginable on tiktok. they're ready with a metaverse store if zuckerberg wants to do one. and then it's bringing up stephan larson's pvh, which is, these are companies, that if you want to go into apparel, be my guest. i think it's too hard. tech is easier than apparel. >> we're used to disparity within specialty, but look at aeo versus burlington, for example. >> aeo was -- they were doing so many things right. i got hurt very badly in aeo for my travel trust, and a lot of it was because they were the hot one. they had everything right. and then they spent a lot of money into developing distribution centers they couldn't get the stuff in on time. they missed a couple of seasons.

jay had to come on tv when the stock was going to be higher, told a very positive story they had a dividend that was then cut, and all i can say is that this -- i'm not saying i got had. i let myself get had on this one. i really believed that the company had -- was in a transcendent mode for younger people, and younger people are much trickier than that. great value. my god >> how about bby i mean, with comps down 10, i mean, i guess it could be worse today. >> yeah, i think that the guide was not as horrible. this stock was well prepped. there wasn't anyone who thought they would do well, so when they don't do well, sometimes it doesn't go down. i had felt that in a similar vein, i thought that williams sonoma did well, and that people would be interested in it, but no they just kind of -- they're going to away. they're not going to buy -- best buy, at the end of the day, is not going to be --

>> i'll throw e.l.f. out as well >> now, he makes -- i didn't believe. one day, i bring their stuff home you know, a lot of the stuff is sourced in china, okay and my wife is saying, e.l.f., well, she doesn't know, i actually put a mac, which is the stuff that's like $72,000 and the $7 e.l.f., and i don't tell her, and she goes, you're so thoughtful this stuff is great. and i said, you look dynamite. she said, where is this from and i said, well, it's from e.l.f. she says, that stuff's made in china. i said, relax. and i think a lot of people in america recognize that cosmetics got too expensive, and he offers a great solution i am still a very big believer in the actual quality of estee lauder, and i think estee lauder can come back, but this is elf's game right now, and when they got into target, it was a big thing. >> yeah. there's some serious share gains here blowout on the number and then good guidance. >> and he's another very humble

person by the way, there were activists who came after him saying he wasn't doing well, and he came on my show and said, i don't know the stock has quintupled, and people were unhappy with him it was during the phase when it was going up, but he's terrific. and i think his products are great, and he's very charitable guy. i like the guy guy's real >> we haven't done a whole lot of research calls, but ccl, citi goes to buy from 10 to $14 big piece in the "journal" about overbooked cruiselines like an airline. they're going to off you something to not get on board. >> i was begging frank del rio to not -- to stay on as ceo. he's retiring for norwegian cruise, but he said, no, i got it to where it is. you're now fine, jim we had booked a norwegian cruise trip, february of 2020, inauspicious time, but i just think that these are great

value. >> does remind you of the time where we thought who is ever -- how is this model ever going to recover? >> i know. and frank kept telling me, jim you don't understand people love cruises. they're not going to sit there and think it's the petri dish of covid. and he's right look, i went into an investment cruise you know that. >> that would be amazing >> yes, i do three days nieces checked off on it i just need others to check off on it. >> i don't think you'll have a problem. >> i just think that cruising is fun. >> finally, watching media today, dish with some news, a little up -- i think actually was a downgrade of dish over at key. they go to neutral but at our ceo conference, which jim mentioned earlier, we talked a lot about a.i. i did an interview with brian grazer, legendary film producer with ron howard at imagine entertainment, and we talked about his formula for

storytelling and whether or not a.i. or machines could ever truly replicate what he does here's what he said. >> look, the movie and the tv series, "friday night lights," that came about because i got cut from high school football in front of 250 kids, and that was a disaster that was seismic to me now, i don't think that can happen to a machine. they're not going to get cut from high school football. and they're not going to feel humiliation and they're not going to look around the room and look at all those faces and eyeballs that are looking at you and penetrating with penetrating eyes that's just not going to happen. so, they can't, you know -- a.i. can't have the experiences that brings life to bigger and other ideas. >> that makes sense. but then you think about what jensen's talking about, jim. it's hard to know. >> well, look, this was an inspirational talk there's tons today

i know there's for our council only, but this is a man -- i know you've met him before he's a very shrewd business person and -- what he says, i go with >> does bring us to disney $88.73 today key goes to $107 says, jim, park margin compression, disney plus sub growth, likely range bound for a while. citi today does reiterate a buy. >> yeah, so far, i'm -- look, i'm on nvidia. i've been wrong on disney. my problem with disney is this until you solve the hulu situation or who buys what, it's obviously getting contentious. this is involving comcast, the parent company of our network. if bob iger wants to go buy everything, and you can't get a better valuation for hulu, and he's integrated hulu now into his package, so i think he might have to, people can say, where's the money going to come from and i have said, over and over again, that this is a balance sheet problem.

this company's got to fix its balance sheet. and i'm betting that it will, or else we would just cashier and take the loss. but there's been no signs yet that that's of anything happening. >> it's probably unfair, but every time we mention disney, it kind of leads to desantis. and i do wonder, jim, about your thoughts now that he has declared also, the discussion about, i don't know, did musk cut too much there was discussion about whether or not audio engineers who have been laid off might have prevented these glitches yesterday. >> that would be something that would be the first time i was dealing with someone who's very high level at twitter who did feel that maybe they did have too many people so, i'm not going to go against musk on that i will say, if anyone thinks -- is selling disney because of the desantis stuff, sell it because of a thing called the balance sheet. that's the reason to sell it and that's what i have misjudged. the balance sheet is not good. and that is a good reason, if

you say, jim, you know, you love that intellectual property, and you love those theme parks, but have you looked at that balance sheet? guilty i'm guilty on that i chose to think that the balance sheet was stronger than it really is >> all right there was some questions yesterday. what even is twitter spaces? if you're not familiar, take a listen to what yesterday sounded like >> all right, great. so, let's see. >> keeps crashing, huh >> yeah. i think we have had just a massive number of people online. so, it's sort -- servers are straining somewhat >> not as clean if you had gone with legacy media. >> i did a couple of those, and you would have 40,000 people it wasn't a problem. this is rather surprising. but look, i think that he'll hire five people and they'll get it right he doesn't -- he doesn't suffer fools gladly there was someone involved who did something wrong, and that person now is trying to figure out what their next career move.

he's not -- most of corporate america is, like, let's actually move that guy to bulgaria, there's a good operation going on no, not musk he's like, well, okay, that person -- i can't -- there's no capital punishment, but you get it there's one, by the way, have you seen t-mobile today? >> we had seifert on yesterday >> because of the -- the dish talks? i mean, can we please -- i think that t-mobile might be interesting. they're doing very, very well. stock down -- unless they're doing -- unless they're taking their war chest and throwing it into the deep blue sea >> there was a report out of the verge that verizon is warning some call center employees about layoff activity. >> i saw that. well, chatgpt. >> that's going to be a rolling story for a long time, maybe quick reminder, you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with jim. thinking about that nvidia call. >> that was the best call of my life

>> side-bgn up and find out mor, use the qr code on your screen it takes you right there it will be a busy day in fixed income as well we'll get barkin -- we got barkin on the tape later on. it's collins as we'll get the balance sheet at 4:30. dow is down 31 back in a moment

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it's time for jim and stop trading. >> a company that's been doing well lately after a lull is met

tronnic. people got excited about the near-term product, but also about their diabetes franchise coming back. it had numbers and the revenue growth for diabetes just not that good. this is something where abbott is in, dexcom is in, apple would like to be in. it was disappointing i expected they were going to have -- they were back and had a great plan for growth. i understand why people said you know what, fool me once, fool me twice. i don't want to give up. i expected more. >> yeah. >>. >> we've been more constructive on devices. >> that's been a very good area. everybody else is doing well, abbott is doing very well. you know, this is quite a surprise. >> tonight, you'll tackle splunk. >> that's one of the better stories to you and that's gary steele, who is turning that company around kristin peck, who is so good,

zoetis as an analyst data, on livestock. nicolas fink turning this into a technology company and he's sensational. got to meet him at the ceo council. >> it's nice to be back on the home set get some rest tonight. >> yeah. >> see you tonight "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time we'll turn back to nvidia. the stock of the morning, and maybe the year, on that big earnings beat when we're back in two minutes.

good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen, with carl quintanilla. we are live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange david faber has the morning off. take a look at stocks here in the early action s&p 500, higher. nasdaq higher. we know why. nvidia surging the nasdaq at 1.25%. pressure on some of the other stocks in the market and you see the dow a little bit lower tech leading lifting all the semiconductor names that nvidia move higher. 30 minutes into the trading session. three movers we're watching.

nvidia skyrockets posting a big earnings beat, blowout guidance, sending a.i. beneficiaries higher around the market look at the move, it's up more than 25% snowflake sliding as the company slashes the forecast telling jim cramer last night he remains optimistic in spite of the guidance that was disappointing. more on those companies in a moment the retail beat, watching american eagle plunging. the retailer lowering its outlook and cutting its guidance down 15% it is a split of two markets tech leading with communication services utilities, staples and energy bringing up the rear. >> pretty fascinating. housing data to start the hour we'll turn to diana olick. hey, diana. >> hey, carl pending home sales were unchanged in april from march, according to the national association of realtors. slightly below expectations. compared with a year ago,

though, they were down 20% these pending sales are measured by signed contracts on existing homes. people out shopping in april when mrts mortgage rates were mixed. the average on the 30-year dropped and then bounced back up and hovered 6.5% and higher for the month. there was a regional disparity in the numbers sales improved everywhere except in the northeast where they dropped sharply. the realtors blaming the weakness on lack of supply we saw that earlier this week on sales of newly built homes which were stronger. the builders benefitting from the lack of supply on the existing side and just one last night on mortgage rates, the 30-year fixed did cross 7% this week on concerns over the government defaulting on its debt potentially back to you guys. >> diana, really quick, we had a nice chat with doug early of toll and talked about where rate was need to zero in before people started feeling more free

to list and bring supply to the market that wasn't fresh home building i wonder what you thought of his comments and if we're headed in that direction is this. >> i don't think we're headed in that direction, at least not now, with potential debt crisis going on look, for toll brothers, he's not quite as dependent because you're looking at a luxury builder. some of the buyers are not actually using mortgages or buying homes outright and mortgaging later i do think mortgage rates would have to drop back to the 5% range to get people back in because as he said in that interview, 90% of americans do have a mortgage rate below 5% currently and that's why they're not putting their homes on the market who wants to trade up to a 7% rate >> diana olick, thank you very much. speaking of mortgage rates we have to start with the move in bonds this morning. how about the one-month treasury yield 6.10%. looking at the highest level on record since 2001. there's a risk here. yields are elevated.

that's what that signals there's the sharp spike. fitch warning overnight that it could downgrade u.s. aaa rated debt we're having flashbacks to 2011 when s&p did downgrade u.s. debt and the negotiations are continuing the chatter sounds positive and constructive from mccarthy but the time is running out. we're at the one-week mark and know that the republicans need to have time to digest any legislation. here's the headline out of fitch. it's worth high lighting what they're saying basically risks are elevated for the short time because of the remaining political agreement to be reached and executed prior to the x date it's about politics. and you could say, well, we have the reserve currency, right, in the u.s., that's going to make the u.s. safe and triple rated no matter what, but fitch does mention the fiscal trajectory in the united states deviates and continues to do to so from those of triple a peers and overridden

by political considerations. it matters s&p got criticized for the same thing when they downgraded us in 2011 treasury, everyone is pointing to the fitch warning as a sign of urgency that they need to get something done let's do it. >> i know. mccarthy is on the tape right now saying we could get a deal at any time. we're getting used to these sort of constructive headlines. they do have to build in this pad, as you point out, it has to get written and takes a couple days, promised 72 hours for everybody to read it and the vote process, which in the words of some desks this morning maybe you're talking about next weekend but not like these guys sign a piece of paper in the president's office and it's done. >> this shouldn't be going -- they shouldn't be going on vacation they have a recess around this they should work 24/7 and get this done. we're going to talk to maxine waters about this next hour on "squawk on the street. you have the risk and an elusive deal in the background which is still something that wall street needs to process and at the same

time, carl, you have economic data, fresh data, and guess what, it's better than expected. which is not good if you're looking for the fed to pause and cut interest rates which is where the market was real gdp we got that second look at the first quarter revised to 1.3%. the initial read 1.1 what was one of the reasons? better consumption, consumers out there spending 3.8% from the last quarter that was revised higher from 3.7% core pce prices, which is what we know the fed is targeting to bring down inflation levels those were 5% from last quarter and that was revised higher as well throw in jobless claims which continue to show that we're not seeing a big layoff, firing, problem. we continue to get good claims, 242 was the number for last week that's not a lagging indicator. >> you have germany now officially in recession with this revision down 0.3 all that said, the macro, you

know, sort of tells you one thing, but bofa this morning does raise their earnings numbers for the s&p for this year they were at 200 because corporates are efficient and this cost cutting is helping and that's where they haven't all been that constructive on the overall markets. >> corporates are more efficient, earnings revisions are rising economic data is coming in better than expected so you have to wonder what that means for the fed. we did get clues i thought the minutes were more interesting than i thought they would be yesterday because they leaned hawkish remember, this was the meeting, last meeting where they changed the statement to indicate they were pausing, and yes, in the minutes, which is the notes from the last fed meeting, there was some discussion that some of the participants felt like a lot of tightening had been done and they wanted to see the impact, but there was concerns about inflation and there were other participants that still felt they -- i'll read the exact statement. generally agree in light of the lagged effects of cumulative

tightening in monetary policy and effects of the economy further tightening and credit conditions the extent to which additional increases in the target range may be appropriate after this meeting had become less certain, but there was another line that some participants still felt that additional monetary tightening would be needed. translation, june is live and july is live no fed member has ruled that out in their speech n their commentary and the data hasn't either. >> yeah. and we'll see. we got bostic saying no cuts until well into '24 yesterday as well let's get to two tech names telling two stories today. our team of reporters is here to break down the reaction. kristina partsinevelos on nvidia helping the semis and the nasdaq 100, hitting new 52-week highs you just don't get stories like this very often. >> the words in the analyst reports, jaw-dropping, best in history, i've never seen this in my career, but investors and analysts were waiting for nvidia's quarter as well as

guidance to gauge the reality and magnitude of this a.i. story. the company's $11 billion revenue q2 guidance almost $4 billion over system. this may be dispelling this a.i. bubble narrative right now much of yesterday's beat was driven by data center revenues when competitors and intel as well as amd saw a decline during the same exact timeframe and the company nvidia expects data center revenue to double in the current quarter. it's not just data center. you have a 22% quarter increase in gaming also helped drive that beat but analysts are rushing to revise earnings and system price target wedbush increased the full year price target to $490 from $290 the price point went up to $500 from 190 over 60% increase overnight. goldman sachs, 440, 44% upside the argument, though, for nvidia's growth story isn't just the a.i. graphics chips, it's the implied software

requirements of the entire a.i. computing stack that drives stickiness and higher margins and might be why investors may be willing to pay consistently high valuations for nvidia also why nvidia is not only competing with chip makers but cloud service providers now. lastly, nvidia's strong guidance could or should drive a significant upward revision of a.i. stocks and attract inflows into other players aris sa, micron, msmc it's incredible most of the returns on the s&p 500 year to date are from a.i. momentum. today 090% of the nasdaq 100 if nvidia was on the dow would contribute you're not seeing as much of a reaction in the dow because it's not one of the stocks on there. >> maybe one day. >> we'll talk maybe the curse will apply there. >> the other semiconductor competitors are higher, amd

moving up 10%, does it make sense or nvidia so far ahead of them. >> because nvidia is so far ahead in the ecosystem amd is launching a new chip this summer they are moving forward on the a.i. forefront and you're seeing the stock increase, but when you're stacking, you know, when you're building a house you're not buying one brick, you're buying the parts the same for the a.i. generative systems they need a bunch of parts, packaging as well, and seems like nvidia has been 15 years in the making getting to this point. >> intel the dow stock and nvidia just continues to speed ahead. it is not higher today. >> gross margins between the two are incredible how much they've just diverged over the last little while and the implied for this upcoming quarter. >> they will have to start talking a.i., the stock down 5.5% today. >> how many times. we should make it a drinking game. >> well, market not buying it for intel. thank you. kristina partsinevelos meantime snowflake sliding on weaker than expected q2 guidance frank holland has the fallout.

in tech there is a story of a.i. and everyone else. >> yeah. absolutely the reduction in full-year guidance weighing on the stock for its worse day in a year and growing questions about its model in the current environment. snowflake pulling guidance back from 40% year over year revenue growth to mid-30s. look deeper in the report there's been a very big slowdown in remaining performance obligation or rpo. this is a metric that provides insight into the company's pipeline on "mad money" last night the ceo saying there's been one big change when it comes to i.t. spending. >> in the marketplace is really quite strenuous. one of the things that's going on and we've seen it progressively increase really since q4, is that the cfo is in the business now then it goes one step further, they start telling the business how much they can spend. >> so despite concerns about the

consumption model and guidance cut analysts remain confident. they remain bullish from the a.i. possibilities from the start-up neba saying the coverage leverages generative a.i. for data. other model cloud stocks that could be impacted. you have to look at the sector zoom, data dog, crowdstrike, looking at the performance kind of mixed. the data you need for a.i., but the question about consumption model with cfos making decisions. >> generally the group also doing better amid higher rates 3.75 on the ten-year frank holland. as we head to break, our road ea quarter closing in on a trillion dollar market cap what the surge in demand means for a.i. beneficiaries. >> credit rating agency fitch putting the u.s. on negative watch as we said

art cashin called a possible downgrade weeks ago. we're going to talk to him on what he calls this ongoing kabuki dance in d.c. the read on retail and break down results and talk with the owner of one of the largest operators of open air shopping centers when we come back. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. dolly varden silver is advancing their high-grade undeveloped whose resumes on indeed asset in bc's prolific golden triangle. the property includes two past producing mines, and over 135 million ounces of silver equivalent. dolly varden.

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xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. retail earnings out this morning. ralph lauren beating on the top and bottom line. sales in asia were strong and in china they jumped 30%.

however the company does expect revenue growth to be flat to slightly up year over year that was a little bit below forecast but the earnings above forecast carl, big profit beat, 90 cents per share, the expect 60 i had a chance to talk to the ceo of ralph lauren this morning. he said look, our core consumer is resilient we're seeing the strongest growth right now in full price he said the consumer continues to move back into put together styles ties are back. i don't know good news for you. you wear a tie every day. >> they never left. >> that's the roots of ralph lauren as well also they continue to see really strong growth on pricing, this average unit retail growth, which is the key metric in the industry 12% even with the rest of retail and a promotional environment. all of that working in their favor. international now more than half of profit for the company.

asia was up 13% in north america. i asked about the caution because flat sales, he said it's no secret the environment is chopper, they are more conscious, it's not a big share of their overall consumer, they're luxury focused but see more caution ahead as far as the luxury, any slowdown there, and he said not really continuing to be dynamic they continue invest into higher and optimistic about china for goods strength in europe as well two cautionary points. watching the uk and watching inventories abroad but overall, i would say in a period of worry around retail and some signs that luxury is starting to slow down, remember the saks ceo told us in california this week we've seen peak luxury spending, ralph

lauren continues to show they're in the sweet spot now of the brand and the kind of products that luxury consumers are buying right now. >> yeah. your point about international is a good one because when north america is up 2 and asia up well into the double digits it does make you wonder whether they're relying -- what happens to north america if, in fact, those numbers go even further south. >> right they've been in this strategy where they're opening the tent cities they opened a brand new ralph lauren in shenzhen and created a ton of buzz around the open. what they're doing in china is the north star for what they want to do around the world. big openings, huge growth and feel under penetrated there like there's a big runway for growth. ralph lauren shares up 8%. best buy rallying on a q1 beat even as sales slow the ceo says 2023 will be the bottom for the decline in tech demand luke capital has a buy rating, $110 price rating on the stock and joins us now

so anthony, are you encouraged by what cory berry said about the outlook from here? >> definitely. i mean look, this was not a great quarter by any stretch of the imagination. any time you have comps down 10%, earnings down significantly, it's tough to, you know, say that -- better than maybe not as bad as expected certainly they have seen a sequential movement in terms of top line trend in the second quarter and i do believe that we're getting close to that bottom and i think that we could see a rebound in 2024. >> why is that bottoming because i didn't get that from target when they talked about hard lines sounds like the trends were accelerating and worsening. >> i think a lot has to do with the fact that look, there was clearly a pandemic-driven demand for electronics. think about the fact that we're working from home teaching our

kids at home, try to find things to keep the kids interest destroying the house notebook pc sales, video game sales, tv sales, but the thing about this for electronics there is -- at some point you have to replace those products a lot during the pandemic are now at the point where they need to be replaced whether that's late 2023 or early 2024. >> we've talked about sort of what the life cycles are i mean, certainly like, for example, grills or things around the house, appliances, i mean you don't need to replace those nearly as often as you might want to replace things like a laptop or some accessories, right? >> absolutely. and the thing to remember, too, and one of the reasons that i'm bullish on best buy long term, think about how many consumer electronics you use and how often you use consumer electronics today versus five years ago, right our lives are becoming more

digitalized and best buy remains the sole national brick and mortar electronics retailer and that's a great place to be. >> thank you buy target $110. appreciate it. meantime nvidia on pace to beat apple for a record single day market value gain. up 25% this morning. poised to become the ninth company ever to hit a trillion dollar market cap. we'll talk to an analyst who raised his target, one of many, on the beat today. even as intel is the bgeigst laggard pulling the dow down 100. back in three.

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when i come back to a three-year timeframe what would i be investing in, nvidia, all day. i'll pound the table again. >> yeah. >> partly because they are the leader technically in the most important next generation of technologies. >> that was legendary venture capitalist jim breyer when at the cnbc ceo council summit.

he made that call with me in january of this year before nvidia's run up into earnings yesterday. it was an epic call. nvidia shares surging again up 25% after an earnings beat that only seems to prove the bullish take the chipmaker's market cap is near that trillion dollar club bank of america analyst vivek air ya maintains a buy rating, raises his price target as they are from 340 to 450. why was this such a surprise to you and the rest of the street >> sure. sara a few things. we talk about the fundamentals, but i really want to, you know, make this point that nvidia's stock is actually cheaper today than yesterday earnings estimates went up by 72% and the stock is up a lot, but it's only up 25% on a forward multiple basis, nvidia is cheaper today than it was yesterday. now as to what's driving this, right, to come to your question, i think first we're at the start of the really large market in

jentive a.i., large language models, about a trillion dollar of data center infrastructure needs to be transformed. it has to be converted to this new technology number one. number two, to be successful in this technology, you really need that end-to-end full stack computing, so you cannot just be a chip company you cannot just be a software company. you have to be all of the above. i think that's what nvidia has shown. which is why they can monetize that trend in 15 to 20 times what a typical semiconductor can. the final point i would make, focus, that this platform, which is called the gpu, is the one thing they do not 20 things, one thing they do. which is why they spent a tremendous amount of leverage. you mentioned earlier in the program, companies in the club, the average free cash flow as a percentage of sales is 19% nvidia is 35%. it's not just driving sales growth the focus is also coming true to

the bottom line in terms of strong free cash flow generation. >> we love to zero in when notes are published on where we could be wrong or risks to the thesis. what are they here >> sure. i think, you know, first is this kind of very broad market, right. there has to be market appetite on a large cap tech growth stocks that appetite wasn't there last year it is this year. that's a broader market issue. then specifically, you know, in the next 6 to 12 months, we are in this rapid investment cycle of whether it's hyper scale or enterprise investing in the new jentive a.i. technology. a year from now they will look back at this and see whether they have been able to monetize all this we think they will be able to but in another 12 months there will be a period when they will look back and see whether the investments, you know, what has been the return on these investments and third is supply,

that, you know, nvidia can put up really large numbers. they are saying they have secure supply you know, this is the kind of sales growth they not only seen before in semiconductors, it's going to require a lot of strong execution from a supply perspective also with their partners in the taiwan supply chain and the foundry in the back end side. >> yeah. makes you wonder about the geopolitics as well as a risk, right. with taiwan, something nvidia's ceo has warned about. >> yeah. i think it's critical, semiconductors is a global industry you know, never helps to have geopolitical friction in a global industry. but my sense is that, you know, having multiple countries, regions, participate with their own area of expertise is what actually helps to grow and, you know, this industry in a very neutrally beneficial perspective that you have a lot of design that is being done in the west a lot of the manufacturing is

being done in the east, a lot of assembly done in the east. collectively the size of the industry, you know, the first time it took 20 years. the next time it doubled it took ten years. it's a critical global industry and this cooperation between regions is a must to keeping the size of the pie growing over time >> thank you for your quick reaction and your new price target, talking us through it. vivek arya. >> fresh fed speak to steve liesman. >> thanks, carl. boston fed president collins saying the fed may be at or near a point where it can pause hiking interest rates. he says the fed can assess the impact of prior hikes and the tightening credit from banks during such pause. he says there's some promising signs that inflation is moderating and stresses in the banking system further tighten credit conditions and perhaps bring down inflation as well

does say decision made meeting by meeting in the minutes yesterday we learned from the may meeting that some officials saw a need for additional rate hikes due to slow progress in bringing down inflation. now an official fed speak, that sum is more than several he said they did not see a need for further hikes. of course, sara, the fed speak is different from the english language where it's the reverse. >> exactly i can relate to that so interesting, there's a lot of ways of looking at this, steve, but the rate on swap contracts linked to the july meeting, i notice this morning, 5.34% so if you take that from where we are right now at the current fed funds rate about 5.08%, that implies the market is starting to price in 25 basis points some time between now and july. >> right so i have basically, sara, i meant to write an internal memo

on this, i stopped reporting some of these probabilities. in fact, i can give you even more than what you're talking to just kind of say what's going on 45% chance now or 40% chance of a hike in the june meeting and call it almost a 60% chance of a hike by july what's happening, sara, you have this surge in rates that are linked to the concerns about the default and so the t bills are higher in yields and that bleeds over and pulls over the fed funds contract we're not getting a read there, i think, of what the market believes the fed is going to do. it may be up and elevated, but really, what it's doing is following this rise in yields. this ridiculous rise in yields that's what's pulling up the outlook for the fed funds.

>> that's really good. >> i did not realize that. i mean, even if that's true, it does kind of jive with the better data we've gotten and if you interpret all the fed speak, there are those that want to pause, but there are still some that want to keep hiking. >> right >> and now i know the producers are saying we have to move on, but we could have a conversation about the difference between a sci skip and pause. >> right. >> we'll have another conversation another time. >> skip is pause in june and hike in july which hey -- >> skip in june wouldn't it? >> it would be a skip and not a pause. thank you. >> right. >> steve liesman time for a news update let's get to pippa stevens. >> president joe biden honored the life of george floyd on the third anniversary of his death and leased a statement for congress to enact meaningful police reform and send it to his

death. floyd died on this day in 2020 when derek chauvin kneeled on his neck more than nine minutes as he yelled he couldn't breathe. he's in prison now for floyd's murder. china is bracing for a new wave of covid infections the country could see as many as 65 million cases per week by the time this surge is expected to peak at the end of june. the latest omicron variant xbb is fueling the resurgence in cases after the country dismantled the sprawling infrastructure for dealing with covid including harsh lockdowns and mass testing and south korea and u.s. forces began their largest ever live fire training exercises today near the north korea border 2500 troops are participating in the training over the next five days, which will simulate an attack from the north. north korea has warned it won't tolerate the drills, calling them an invasion on its doorstep

carl, back to you. >> thanks for that pippa stevens. watching the markets one of the more lopsided days we've seen in some time. despite the fact that tech is up 3% most sectors are down. still a rush to the dollar above 104. two month high vix really not that far from 20. still stay with us ♪♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now,

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director floor operations joins us on the newsline art, we'll get to the debt ceiling in a moment. you heard the comments from collins a moment ago what does it mean to have incremental officials come out and say i could see pausing in

june >> yeah. you saw the market perk up a little bit on the collins comments i think that's as distinct we've had anybody say we're going to skip or pause, whatever you want to call it, and so the market is hanging in the middle. this as you said, it's kind of disjointed day we've got -- i think today and tomorrow are going to be very important technically. where we close on friday, a weekly close will be important the s&p has been between 4100 and 4200 for argument sake, so where we close on friday, will be important i think a.i. is going to be a new mini version of the dotcom everything you hear it's going to have an a.i. inflection everything from new drugs and

medicine to predictive natures of all types this is going to be interesting. and as the debt ceiling, you alluded to, be careful what you wish for because the treasury supposedly has been delaying payments and purchases in a variety of areas if they get a debt ceiling deal and it is far enough out and also far enough up, giving them latitude, the treasury could come out with a mass of new issuance and would take liquidity out of the market. this is going to be some interesting next three months, but i think the next two days are going to be critical for the market >> are you afraid of the ratings agencies now fitch out overnight warning that it might downgrade? the data team at cnbc went back and looked at 2011 and saw that, you'll remember this, art, after

s&p downgraded and we did not get a downgrade last night, we got a warning, but after s&p downgraded u.s. debt, the full trading day after when the vix went from 32 to 48 and s&p lost more than 6%. >> there's no question i wrote a couple weeks ago that, unfortunately, it is going to be very tempting for the rating agencies to prove they are as strict as s&p was back in 2011 and sure enough here comes fitch putting them on watch anyway i think there's a great temptation there to say, these guys fool around too much and we're very strict about what we do, so we may downgrade the rating i think we may get away with a watch for now. but you want to be careful if you get that deal, it could be a rush of new issuance and could suck money, liquidity, out of the market and other places. >> art, we turn to you for

history lessons a lot. today is the 100th trading session of the year and when up 7% year to date on the 100th trading day of the year you finish the year higher nine times out of ten how much of that do you take to the bank >> well, ryan is always good at those things, however i think it's a small universe if you go back and look at it. i'm also worried about the dow, you know, it's 100th trading day of the year and i think the dow has been down a preponderance of days through that. you know, it's been the text and the text bolstered by the artificial intelligence. this is going to be some tug of war here again, not to dwell on it, but i'm going to look very carefully at what happens by friday's close. >> have you been impressed with either the resilience of the consumer, some of the revised q1

gdp numbers or even the ability of american corporates to cut their costs in advance of any weakness we got at least bofa taking their earnings up to 215 this morning. >> yeah. i am impressed they not only maintained earnings better than many, including me, had expected i would have thought that the earnings and guidance would be downgraded they held up well. they held the margins up well. but the game is not over the leading indicator has been down something like eight reporting levels in a row. there's something out there. i'm not sure what it is, but there's something out there. >> i mean, earnings resilience, are you surprised by the overall market resilience? we haven't broken down, despite all the risks, the debt ceiling, the rising rate expectations now for the federal reserve on the back of better data and better inflationary signs that you

mentioned the debt issuance people are worried about after they raised the debt ceiling all of this and, you know, the pain trade still feels like it's higher. >> well, there's no question that the indices, the headline indices, have been amazingly resilient. but again, if you take out seven stocks in many cases you're down on the year. it's narrow. if you look at the market breadth, it's narrower than you would like to see. you know, supposedly, the high tide lifts all boats, this is a very selective tide, and i'm not ready to throw out the confetti yet, sara. >> no. you don't sound like it. >> maybe the doers, we'll see what happens tomorrow. we'll talk to you soon thanks. >> i'll drink to that. thank you. >> thanks, art. coming up next, the a.i. stocks that are rallying on the

back of nvidia there are some as we go to break, cnbc as you know is celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage throughout the month of may sharing stories of influential aapi business leaders including the ceo of herbal based wellness brand apothecary. >> what makes me proud of being an asian american founder is my parents. they emigrated here in the 1980s with nothing they were farmers. here i am having raised 13 million of venture capital on my second company, filmed for "shark tank," and i am just getting started. bm

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let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones . nvidia results driving the nasdaq rally a.i. stocks seeing a nearly $300 billion surge. dom chu is tracking them name names for us. >> sara, this is -- we're going to put some of the breakdown here for you there are only a handful of

names in artificial intelligence or related industries that have the kind of market power to power a nearly $300 billion gain in overall market cap. now the bulk of that as we've been pointing out has been nvidia shares and even though we're off the best levels of the session so far, at $384 a share, 25% gains, what we're talking about right now so far is a roughly $190 billion market cap gain so far in just today's session alone. if it were to stay that way, that is, of course, the bulk of it some of the other names that are giving some of that attention to a.i., in terms of market value, are the names that we've been talking about for quite some time microsoft, the investment in openai, chatgpt's creator, alphabet with their bared product up 2 to 3% advoons micro devices catching gains on nvidia's results. advance to a lesser degree to investors, that semiconductor play, c 3 and a.i. up there as well

these stocks make up a roughly $100 billion gain in market cap. so between those six stocks, nvidia and these five, that's where you get close to that 300. one other place to keep an eye on, there have been a lot of exchange traded funds that have popped up that have an a.i. or a.i. tilt or exposure. one of the ones that is larger in scale that has some a.i. related names is the arc next generation fund ticker arkw. we focused in the past on the, you know, transformative innovation fund, but this one here has microsoft as one of its smaller weightings, advanced micro devices, some of the big names we talk about often. keep an eye on the etfs out there. remember many have smaller net asset values they can be moved around quite a bit. check out some of the bigger ones out there if you're looking for ways to expose yourself to etfs without some of those smaller names being a part of that discussion. i'll send it back to you. >> another one at you, dom,

cadence design systems up 7% this is a $60 billion company. it does the software design for advanced semiconductors and nvidia is a huge partner and client and that's, obviously, getting another lift you're seeing the nvidia effect spread out around the market. >> there you got that other kind of few billion dollars to push towards 300 you were dollars. >> thank you. two interviews you will not want to miss we'll get a view from the hill with house financial services ranking committee member maxine waters tonight, 8:00 p.m., a special encore of the elon musk interview. watch the full, unedited interview.

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let's get back to retail our next guest owns and operates leasable space let's bring in conner flynn who joins us here at post 9. it's great to have you thanks for coming in it's such a fascinating space. we know there's a lot of uncertainty. i think the street feels there's not enough transactions to know directionally where we're going. how do you clarify that for people >> it's true there's obviously a lot of warning signs today about the consumer, about the economy.

i was just in vegas for the icsc conference with over 25,000 retailers, landlords got together when you look at the leasing demand, it's robust across all square footage sizes but the transaction market is on pause transactions were down 75% versus last year there's a lot of patient capital waiting. kimko is patient we have the most liquidity, so people are waiting patiently to see if there's opportunities the fundamentals are as good as it gets. >> what are you waiting for before you start pulling triggers, so to speak? what would you need to see >> probably a little more clarity on where the leverage -- you know, the interest rates are going to stabilize so we can price accordingly in terms of the total risk adjusted return on the properties. the demand is there. we're at a near all-time high occu occup occupancies. you're looking at tenants

looking to gn grocery anchored air shopping centers we are with the likes of lululen all their growth plans are in opening air shopping centers. >> you're heavily engrossed in grocery club centers but you're probably exposed in banks, which is not as hot, and other pockets of the economy so, what's -- who's not opening and what's not doing well? >> the bed bath bankruptcy is front and center that auction is coming up next month. that will be interesting to see where really the test of the demand is. there's a lot of retailers, especially in the off-price sector if you think about the off-price wars between tj maxx, ross, burlington, they said they're going to be aggressive at the auction process. again, no new supply solves a lot of things. we haven't had new supply in over a decade. the demand is pretty broad-based.

>> is it true the ratio to openings to closings is not as bad as you might think reading the head leans every day >> this will be the third year in a row openings outpace closings if you think about the negative headlines out there, people have a doom and gloom view -- >> it's the view we're over-stored and dates back to the early e-commerce days. >> and covid we were never going back to stores. >> capital is flowing to the stores before. before all major retailers were focused on how do you grow e-commerce regardless of margin. put all the capital on that. now they're focused on margin and putting capital back into the stores if you think about it, the returns are crushing e-commerce margins. >> we hope you'll come back because we -- like i said, we need report cards on this front more than other spaces thanks, conner good to see you. as we go to break, another quick check on the markets as the dow's shaved some losses, down 0.20%

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good thursday morning. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live from the new york stock exchange. is the country headed for a debt downgrade? fisch and morningstar putting u.s. on credit watch we will speak to the executive to the executive who downgraded u.s. in 2011. holly newman kroft will join us says the market is overly dovish on a fed pivot. house financial services committee ranking member maxine waters on where we stand in the debt ceiling negotiations as congress gets ready for a break and as treasury secretary janet yellen's june deadline inches closer. market story being largely driven by nvidia after those blowout earnings results last night driven by the significant ai demand that's taking the nasdaq and other ai exposed names with it. interesting note out of the

morgan