welcome to "power lunch," everybody. coming up all about a.i.nvidia soaring after its results driving any beneficiary along with it. we'll ask if a.i. is getting maybe a little overhyped

plus, mortgage rates now soaring to 7%. hardly anyone wants to move and give up their low rates. we'll talk about what that is doing to the housing market. kelly? hi, everybody. before all that, let's get get a check on to markets. almost at session highs. the dow is at session highs now. the dow has turned positive. it's up 48 the dow is up about 52 points but so is the s&p. pretty remarkable, 1.2% move now. the nasdaq is up nearly 2% today. nvidia is the big story, that euphoria is dragging everything higher here's where nvidia stands right now, up 164% so far this year after losing exactly half of its value in 2022. pretty shocking, could be the first semi name up there

the street was waiting for the quarter end guidance from nvidia the revenue for q2 guidance, almost $4 billion over estimate. driving that stock 26% higher. much of the beat was driven by revenues when competitors like intel and amd saw declines during the same timeframe the company expects revenue to almost double in this current quarter. double-digit growth in gaming that helped. i catch up with the nvidai ceo about why he can grow so quickly if short amount of time. not only working on this for 15 years but the nature of the data center will be very heavily accelerated. they'll be connected to millions of gpus.

customers are cut back on buying those traditional servers that power or computers that intel have come to dominate over the last decade, instead biographic chips and the surrounding infrastructure imperative for generative a.i lastly, nvidia's strong guidance should drive up a significant revision of a.i. stocks. micron for memory. micro and tsm that makes all of these chips. it's what's driving that higher margins and maybe why investors will be willing to pay for nvidia. >> kristina, thanks. senior vice president of equity research, he just upgraded the stock neutral

matt, tell us about more where you see the prospect now >> pretty clear there was demand on the a.i. side for nvidia. i just didn't think that it was going to be quite this explosive given the lead times to get new chips from tsm and so now, i mean, i look at my numbers, data center revenues roughly doubled. earnings, they've nearly doubled and so, yeah, my price target goes up even without having to revisit my multiple. >> the valuation, i mean, normally i don't like when people say, when you look two years out -- seriously with nvidia if you look two years out -- give me the numbers. >> so for me it's actually 40

numbers. having said that, depending on how you look at their data center revenues a couple of years from now, i could get more aggressive with my model nvidia, you step back to the last cycle, they were rough ly trading at 40 times -- >> what do they do at nvidia that's better than their competitors? is it's a question they're always at the right place at the right time what is it >> it's a little bit of that nvidia, genesis, it's pretty amazing they've been able to transition that to an a.i. company and you look forward and they have a goal to also be the leader in things they're moving in the right place. i think with a.i., what they've

done a great job of not just building a chip but building a software ecosystem around that chip and so you build that software ecosystem and all of the intelligence surrounding silicon and it gets very, very hard the displace. >> you think they can sustain it a price tag $100 more than where the stock is today. >> yes again, they've built tit around the a.i. chips they supply the structure that you need to build around their cpus they supply the networking now now they're building their own cpu, so in and out of that process so effectively building thesed a yas ensys that will allow them to sell more cpus. >> matt, thank you very much very timely guest today.

thank you for your insights. the a.i. boom that's sweeping the market, is it an overhyped bubble or a huge opportunity for companies not just tech companies to improve their businesses and make more money? it's bring in jim tierney. jim, welcome good to have you with us >> great to be on. thank you. >> what do you say here, let's get to the key question and that is whether we're in the middle of a kind of bubble or mania where anything that touches a.i. or can plausibly make a case they're a.i.-related is sort definitionally going to do well? >> we're certainly seeing that today. communication services with meta and alphabet they're all up big and the rest of the market is doing virtually nothing. the question is, will there be a benefit and for microsoft and alphabet to spend billions and

billions of dollars, they have tex peckation they're going to be able to sell something? whoever's buying that has the expectation they're going to get productivity out of that and that productivity probably means fewer employees and cost savings, so if that becomes the ultimate outcome which i think it has to be given the market reaction there's going to be much more beneficiaries just than a few directly related stocks >> that's a very interesting and curious part of this let's talk about so much the derivative industries that could benefit of this push into a.i. that aren't just the easy ones that we could pick out and name in chips and networking and so on and so forth, where else, who else is going to be a beneficiary here. >> we talked about schwab before they have a lot of really big call centers if you can automate that you can reduce heads.

look at restaurants and the number of people taking orders, if you can use a.i. to take an order get it right all the time you're reducing head count even engineering count, even lawyers, 80% or 90% of the way there, big cost savings across the entire ecosystem. >> how much does nvidia cost it's expensive to use their chips. expensive as a company to try deploy tons of new a.i. technology, trying different vendors, jet sonned a work force, in the long run great n the short run, is that really going to be as cost effective as we think in. >> when you look at their revenue forecast for next quarter it's $11 billion that spread across all of the big

tech companies it's not that huge of an investment, equally important is you have to be there and if you're not there and your competitor gets a leg up on you to a degree it's als defensive spending >> so, you talked a little bit about zh what and how kit be a beneficiary and the idea that maybe they canautomate call centers, maybe you mentioned it, another potential winner. >> data centers represent about 14% of their sales, eaton, in terms of electrical equipment that's being in the data center. >> any others? >> i think when you look at cadence in terms of software design and software testing, the more chips that are out there the more uses the more software cadence is going to sell

many beneficiaries we're seeing the direct a.i. been fisheries i think there are much broader expectation and a quick final question/observation, on the one hand a.i. is making everyone bullish again. on the other hand high rates are dragging down in other areas how does that tug of war shake out in. >> the most important thing for schwab is that cash sorting keeps on coming down and that's what we've seen year to date in terms of the highs in january, significantly lower in april and what we've seen so far in may. we have raymond james report after the close yesterday. with cash sorting being very moderate the short-term driver for schwab and the indication is we're heading in the right direction there even with rates at 5% or more. >> all right, jim, thank you we appreciate it today jim tierney.

before the break, speaking of a.i. a quick programming note, a special edition of "power lunch" tomorrow, the power of a.i., we'll take a deep dive across the industry, highlighting the risks and opportunities and the fierce and hopes of a revolutionary technology that's tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. up next, when companies say they expect consumers to cut back, maybe expected discretionaries. what's driving this, one reason cyberthreats growing and specifically from china, plus there's a.i. of it all how will it transform the industry in. >> a quick power check, beyond nvidia, a huge power boost, on the positive side, monolithic power system getting a boost by or from nvidia on the negative side, dollar

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welcome back a warning from the u.s. government and microsoft, chinese hackers have been working to infiltrate u.s. communications system for some time according to the report hackers aren't trying to disrupt things yet but maintain access and

conduct espionage for as long as possible without being detected. spending on cybersecurity has continued to hold up despite the ma krowinds companies are facing up 30% this year palo alto up 10% after that strong earnings report chris, great to have you here today what's the significance of this announcement from the u.s. government and microsoft about the chinese hacking? >> well, certainly an indication of a compromise beginning in guam is very interesting and unique and could be indicative of the interest or ability to disrupt the south china sea in the event of conflict. also very interesting to the type of devices and their methods. >> how so? >> well, a lot of times when we think of cybercrime or cybersecurity the end game is a financial gain or a motive or

ra ransomware implementing a pivot or the ability to move around networks also opposed to compromising computers. these attackers are compromising devices which are typically ignored in most cybersecurity doctrines. >> so, there's a difference, isn't there, between a state actor performing espionage in their hacking and performing disruptive activities, in other words really trying to interfere with operations, what is this and why would this disruptive actions be so much more devastating, critical, to this infrastructure that's being attacked >> well, we're so dependent on internet communications, the ability to disrupt our computer communications during conflict could be significant, our systems just wouldn't work and it's a much different approach

than a traditional attack where someone is actually trying to gain financially from the outcome, these attackers are trying to gain intelligence about what we're doing, how we're doing it and they like to have the option to be able to disrupt those communications at some point in future. >> and that feels to me as an ignorant layman like the kind of testing that a hostile state actor would do before they would make some military move against taiwan in other words, if they're testing our sort of infrastructure this way, would about suggest to you that they're doing it with motive >> well, the people can tell us. the interesting, the timing the national security agencies advise that this attack began at the end of january early february at the same time the

balloon traversed the country. they could be linked. >> how would you describe the u.s. versus china when it comes to kind of cybersecurity you know, who has the better systems and technologies are we up to the challenge >> the united states government and the u.s. has great cybersecurity posture, we have great capabilities, however we're under constant attack and they're constantly probing for every weakness, it's less about the technology and how they play by the rules and in our case the chinese will hack into anything they can get into, whether to advance their own intellectual property for gains or perhaps military advantage our government doesn't use our cybercapabilities to advance >> how much should we be worried about this incursion >> this truly happens all the

time what's the most interesting to me is it started to guam, might be a linkage of the relationship between guam and the south china sea. >> large military installations, u.s. military installations in guam that could certainly be compromised or affected or potentially degraded, i guess. >> guam's a really key military location for us, it's very key in securing the south pacific, and those communications are absolutely necessary and once they're inside they're not limited to guam. they can traverse that network inside at will because many of these devices, once you're inside the network they're very, very weak. we refer to computer networks sometimes as a hard candy shell with a soft, chewy center and once you're inside they can really have their way with us. >> all right, chris, thank you very much. very insightful.

ahead, cruise stocks high. one of the key players. plus, big moves in energy. we'll bring you the mbnuers next "power lunch" will be right back ♪♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation.

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welcome back, everybody, to "power lunch." right now, the dow lower, look at that. all right, basically flat. but tech names leading to gains in s&p 500 let's go now to rick santelli in chicago for more >> reporter: yes, there's a lot of volatility in treasuries but many of the traders still believe that the long-term i issues are going to be few and far between when it comes to the debt ceiling will they be right in time will tell a two-year note yield, how yields made their highs of the day and this was for good reason 299,000 on initial claims, a huge revision from 242, to 225,000 on last week and continuing claims now remain under 1.8 million.

if you open that up the two-year continues to be on pace for fresh high yield closes almost day after day copying the early march and many are talking about how generally short-term securities are having an effect on short-term futures. look at a one-year, one-month generic bill versus fed fund futures for january of '24, you can see the indirect relationship and let's get to an even more directly on this relationship, look at the year to date of that same one-month bill on top of the dollar index, that's the reason why the dollar index seems to be doing so well the issue is what happens after debt issue is fixed, well, many think you're going to see much more short-term supply like t-bills, they'll have to continue monitor all of those relationships. kelly, back to you. >> thank you, rick appreciate it. let's the urn to oil which is dropping 3% today on renewed, i don't know, why is it?

>> comments from deputy prime minister who was pouring cold water on the idea that opec might take further production cuts he said to a russian newspaper he doesn't think they have to take any new steps that's in opposition to saudi arabia's minister earlier this week speaking of those short sellers, short positioning is at its higher prior the pandemic according to data. in the last four weeks that's been increasing at the fastest rate at the same time, long positioning is down. one thing to note, european natural gas now falling below its level of june of '21 prior to invasion -- last year it was after 34.50 per

megawatt -- >> is there a china angle in. >> l in, g was sub dude in the fall because they had crackdown in the fall. they got saved by the weather. but there are still at he of concerns here. what if they have any drought this summer like they had last year that impacts nuclear power, so out of the woods for now, but on a little bit of a shaky footing. >> interesting point, because you wonder if part of the decline in nat gas has been the talk about el knenino that coul exacerbate china's energy problem dm moved beyond weather events and these extreme changes in temperatures that's predominantly what's driving these markets a lot of the time. >> still hard to forecast. pippa, thank you the cnbc newsup date the most conservative members of the republican party

are telling house speaker mccarthy to take a tougher stance in debt ceiling negotiations 35 members of the house freedom caucus wrote today to urge mccarthy to hold out for a deal with many of the republicans' top priorities as mccarthy said the sides are coming to a deal ahead of the june 1st deadline the white house releasing a comprehensive plan to cou counterantisemitism across the united states. has divided america's society and threat enings democracy. and a new study from the national institute of health is looking to understand the effects of long covid, it's some of the first reer is frch the billion-dollar recover program and finds the common long covid symptoms still many are calling for more

research for the unexplained symptoms like brain fog tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much let's see here, ahead on "power lunch" the higher rates not matter most expected higher rates to cause a major slowdown but yet on the housing front toll brothers said he's surprised by the level of housing activity given the environment and the same goes for the auto industry where sales are growing even with higher prices and higher rates. we'll scdiuss both those critical industries when ""power lunch"" returns. meet gold bond healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins, you can pay more but you can't get more. gold bond. champion your skin.

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welcome back after dropping in marcn fixed in april. afford nlt holds back signing and that lack of inventory is keeping prices high as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped over 7%. >> kelly, there was no movement in home sales in april month to month but pending sales were down 20% compared with april of last year, these numbers are based on contract signings mortgage rates were then mixed the average on the 30-year fixed

dropped sharply in first week of april but then bounced back up fast forward to today and that rate which has been rising all week just jumped another nine basis points today to 7.12%. if you're taking out a 400,000 mortgage on a 30-year fixed your monthly payment has jumped by 168 bucks in just the past two weeks. so affordability has gotten worse and supply hasn't improved at all benefitting the home builders. toll brothers beat expectations and the ceo said the shares of home builders to sellers has gone to 35%. in a note this morning, toll brothers can do just fine as sure as many of their customers pay in cash and help buy down that mortgage but that doesn't reflect a broad healthy housing

market the luxury builder setting itself from the rest of the market early on "squawk on the street," the toll brothers ceo said that she was not expecting results to be as strong as they were given that jump in mortgage rates as diana just talked about. here's what he said about demand. >> i'm really surprised in the 6% to 7% range that we have as much activity as we do you bring it down into 5%. >> for more on rising rates and the state of housing, let's bring in david poulty. bill, welcome. good to have you with us how do you react to what mr. yearling just said if rates came down we'd see activity spike in. >> i think he's right. interest rates have gone up so much, that has to be bad for

home builders. what's interesting, tyler, you've seen the opposite of that, meaning the biggest competitors to home builders is existing home sales, new homes compete with old homes when new homes have these low mortgage rates people don't want to sell their homes. they have to buy a new home. that's rally what's happening, tyler, i think in terms of why the builders are so strong right now. >> you see the market in a kind of -- i mean, when one of those existing homes or pre-owned homes comes on the market in the neighborhoods that i'm familiar with in this metro, they are going very, very fast, despite those higher rates in the 6s >> correct, and frankly it's because in some cases those homes cost less money and if it was a competitive environment and you had to of those homes on the market these new home builders wouldn't be selling a

lot of homes but with such tight supply just as a function of people not wanting to get out of their homes and then you the zoning problem, too, tyler, when builders are restricted on what they can build it's kind of a double whammy >> bill, you guys focused a lot on building products and what goes into the whole suite, those involved in some new home constr constructions, where do you see the best opportunities right now? >> frankly, i think the home builders are the best opportunity. i'll tell you, you know, the dynamic that's being set up right now where the big competitor to home builders is the existing home sales market the federal reserve has basically allowed the home builders to have no competition with the existing, with the old

housing stock, and that really gr creates a great runway for home builders you're looking at pretty strong housing market. >> rates at 7% on the 30-year fixed what does that do and a what point do the buyers basically just sort of say, uncle, i give in >> a great question, lot of people in home building are trying to figure that out right now, basically the consensus if you see job claims tick up that's when you'll probably see these interest rates really matter because so many people are locked into these homes that the federal reserve created at these low interest rates people have to buy these homes and right now there are so many of them. >> bill, pulte, thank you. sky-high prices and rising interest rates have to be hurting car sales, right no so fast

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welcome back to "power lunch. analysts at citi are getting more bullish on the cruise

lines. carnival from fut ral to buy upping their price target to $14. they're seeing continued positive momentum in bookings. a stark contrast to what we're starting to see in other parts of the travel world, carnival, royal and norwegian are revealing this earnings season that average occupancy has rebounded sharply in some cases to 100 .or higher after years of loading up debt. carnival's balance sheet is at a turning point with the opportunity to become less ugly in the coming months and years which has been a big concern. >> a pretty big deal, do we give them credit for this turnaround when people were concerned that this debt could be a overhang for now. >> cruise lines are taking an advantage of uptick in revenue.

>> all right, thank you very much now as automakers and dealers get ready to kick off their three biggest months for sales, the business of plateauing due to interest rates given way to a new reality that sales keep rising anyway the s&p auto sub sector up nearly 40% for the year. how much of that is s&p 500 auto performance is the parts dealer like autozone and how much is the manufacturers. >> take a look at ford, gm, toyo tashgs those guys haven't been doing much over the last year. certainly ford and gm haven't. the after-market parts retailers, autozone, as well as some supplier stocks those are focused on the next generation of vehicles, part of the higher move of the auto index

people will be focused on, you and i our neighbors, if we're interested in buying a car this summer, yes, you're going find slightly better deals in terms of incentives and slightly lower prices but you're still seeing a very strong market in terms of demand revising upward its expectation that we'll see auto sales top 15 million this year, the strongest since 2019 that's not what people were expecting a couple of months ago. >> we talk about incentives, this is something that auto dealers and manufacturers haven't had to do for several years, how big, how widespread will these incentives be and on what kinds of vehicles in. >> well, obviously, the older less desirable vehicles get the biggest incentives, that's always been the case, right now the average is about $1700, now you might is say to yourself that's a lot compared to a year ago when it was only $1100 but

you are have to take the percentage of the average price paid it will be about 3.6 .of the average price paid which is just over $47,000 pre-pandemic it was about 10%. the automakers while they have raised the incentive they're nowhere close to where they were pre-pandemic, they've got some money to still spend and put on the hood in terms of enticing people to come in. >> how many cars and trucks are still selling above msrp in. >> the percentage is hard to know for sure. it's slightly below the msrp right now. look, if you look at certain pickup trucks, tyler the popular ones you'll pay above sticker, that's just the way it is. now, we're seeing greater production and greater inventory but there's a lot more demand out there than i think people appreciate zbld are we in a situation where we're seeing inventories finally grow, prices

start to come down on the ev side but used car prices are falling, is it not quite the sort of cash cow that manufacturers might be hoping for? >> it depends on the type of the vehicle that you're talking about. in terms of the used vehicle prices coming down, while strong demand for new vehicles, that's because automakers can do more in terms of incentives, you want to go out and get yourself a used auto loan at this interest rate, how about if you buy a new one? they can put their thumb on the scale so to speak so it looks more enticing to buy a new model versus a used model. >> let's talk about ev pricing, we know tesla has been cutting

prices this year, how much pressure has that put on other ev manufacturers, are they following suit >> it depends on which model you're talking about look, the must tank mach-e ford had to cost those prices it's a direct competitor, it's easy for people to say, i'll go out and buy a model y instead of the -- e ford doesn't have any competition on the pickup truck, it's raised price on the lightning. they've seen higher prices paid for their r1t because the demand is out there you need to see the entire market stretch out a little bit before you start to see some dha changes. some of the foreign models, electric models it's not applicable if you buy an ev but

it is applicable if you lease an ev >> the audis the bmws you might be able to lease -- >> correct you'll see a lot more ev leasing. >> very interesting. phil, thank you, sir nvidia's overnight surge has the chip-maker nearing a trillion-dollar market cap, that's an exclusive club nvidia, up more than 40% from draft day about a month ago. other big movers of the day, one of nvidia's biggest compe competitors. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go.

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(funky electronic music) (narrator) invest in. believe in. move in. grow in. build in. thrive in. all in north carolina. ranked america's top state for business. time now for three stock lunch. chip maker advanced micro, it posted blockbuster earnings yesterday. bank of america said they're on the verge of taking away market

share from its rivals. here is the founder of news street advisers. what would you do with amd, delano >> it is trading up and it's due to what's going on with ai space. this is an opportunity for people to take money off the table and take profits the stock will take a breather at some point. the runup has been crazy if you're long-term, i would be cautious if you look at the numbers, amd, the sales are down it's on the client side and gaming side. down 6% quarter over quarter on

the gaming side. the big thing here is demand how much of this is ai infatuation and how much the business demand is >> let's turn to best buy. shares up 2% had an earnings beat this morning. the ceo warned weaker spending ahead with inflation hitting consumers' wallets do you like the stock? >> i don't here. one, inflation is a concern. also, a bigger concern for mesa concern that's becoming more prevalent is shrink. that's going to continue to persist going forward. i think consumers, when you look at best buy, a lot of the high ticket electronics, those are things consumers are staying away from. at some point that will bottom i'm staying away

margins are contracting if you look at them doing promotions and other things to incentivize demand it will be a near-term problem for right now stay away. >> let's move on to one down almost 10% after earnings missed estimates. that's dollar tree also slashed its profit outlook for the year what do you say about dollar tree >> this is a tough one and one i would still be buying here it's having the same issues plaguing other issues, inflation, consumers shifting the way they spend if you look at dollar tree, some of their products and what they provide is higher margin and lower margin consumerables if you look at the investment they made in family dollar, that pays off in the long run also, you'll see lower costs for them when it comes to freight in

the back half of the year. that's a positive to potentially boost profits for them down the line those are the reasons i like it. i'm sticking with it. >> buy low and today it's lower than it was yesterday. delano, thank you. still to come, why gen-z loves cash and a risky move from nike pays off. that's when "power lunch" returns. ble options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.

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let's get to it. starting with the ron desantis presidential campaign launch that hit some technical problems many people experienced the service crashing the number of viewers peaked around 400,000 it was supposed to be a fun way -- >> how do you turn this into a win? >> you say it broke the internet >> there was so much interest there it crashed it. >> i might add we're still talking about it even though it's kind of the worst-case scenario for desantis, on the other hand it's hard to get a lot of buzz for the presidential launch. there's been buzz about this event. it might have more long-term

effects in a positive way. >> needed to find an escalator to ride. >> that's the thing. sometimes there's these memorable starts. writing a personal check might be the simplest way to pay a bill, but it might be the riskiest banks filed nearly double the amount of scams with personal checks banks recommend limiting the number of checks you write and watch for unusual bank activity. how often do you write checks? >> often enough that we had a fraud issue. you wonder if there's a way to move past routing numbers and account numbers. >> when i mail a check, i wrap it in another piece of paper so

you can't see it's a check. apparently gen-z is opting for cash nearly 70% of gen-z uses cash now compared to half of gen-x. >> i went to a place yesterday and i paid with cash they hardly knew what to do with it they had to go to another register to find change. it's like where's your credit card >> in london, 50% of the payments are digital they're having issues with the unbanked and trying to keep these people involved in these payments >> all right tiktok is testing a chatbot powered by artificial intelligence the intelligence company that

uncovered what tiktok was trying, they did it before their announcement tiktok has a history of innovating. nike released a sneaker by ja morant. we know his colorful history, but they sold out in 20 minutes. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from the new york stock exchange. we have a big interview coming up billionaire investor marc lasry is here and he has a special guest with him we'll get to that in a moment. we begin with wall street's ai obsession and how long stocks like nvidia can keep surging those shares having their best days on the back of earnings here's your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. nasdaq where the actio