lowest hanging fruit they can go at c copyright material, name, image, and likeness >> they're playing our song. thank you. >> thank you >> thank you all for watching this special edition of "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> have a great long weekend, everybody. all right, guys. thank you so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange this make or break hour begins with the big day in the market and the remarkable run for tech, and whether its breakaway bounce for the rest of the market means it can't possibly last for much long longer we ask as the nasdaq asks on its fifth straight week of gains we see where things stand with 60 minutes to go the move in big tech has helped the s&p 500 approach the 4,200 level. there it is. it's above it right now, and we will see if we can get a close above that number as investors

keep a close eye on any developments out of washington regarding the debt ceiling duel. it's been a pretty broad-based move today as well with discretionary names performing quite well financials, materials, industrials, they're also in the green. there's a lot of green as you can see on the board today takes us to our talk of the tape this tech takeoff, and why some make the argument that it is not done just yet. that is the view of tom lee, fund strats co-founder and head of research. he is as, you can see, with us live welcome back it's good to see you again. >> great to see you, scott >> doesn't want to let up. it certainly doesn't seem like it wants to. why do you think it can continue, tom? >> well, we know the markets climb a wall of worry, and there's a lot of things that we visibly worry about including debt ceiling, inflation, the fed, regional banks, but i think the message that's come out in the last couple of months is companies have been incredibly resilient, you know, they manage costs really carefully

they have been selective in how they manage prices they have been really good in targeting customers and that's what's paying off. they have a great first quarter earning season, and as you know it, at some of these conferences, they haven't been cutting guidance, and there are still upsideds to earnings. that's one side of the story, and the second course is positioning because people did rage sell last year, but the bond market is sort of signaling a softer landing than many were expecting. i think that's positive. >> so do you think there will still be a chase to come at least as it relates to tech? because you've gotten a year's worth of gains in these stocks, and in some cases, you've gotten, like, five years' worth of gains it's been quite remarkable and you know what i'm alluding to nv nvidia, and stock like that don't seem to want to let up. >> what's interesting is that nvidia -- this is not a widely shorted stock into the results

that 30% rally ruz really the market recognizing they have to rerecognize the future cash flows. i think that's pretty clear for most of the trade. one of the things we saw that top sector pick this year, is the wage inflation that ultimately translates into better than expected growth, and i think that's really the thesis, and it sort of explains why it has really led this year, but i don't find them absolutely expect stocks. >> divergence though between fang and some of the others in the rest of the market doesn't concern you? i've cited some of the numbers that are out, and you've seen them yourself i'm sure the three-month performance spread between the s&p and the equal weight s&p, the widest it's been since december of '99. we all know what happened in 2000 and the point that is, you know, the intent of this data, tom. it doesn't make you a little nervous? >> it does, scott, because, you know, market breadth is

important to confirm a trend, but i also think it's explainable. i think there are some binary events that naturally would make people cautious like this debt ceiling. it's hard to say how you find equilibrium price today. one thing we pointed out to our clients this morning was that we look at industrials and consumer discretionary, and there's a lot of good market breadth, well over s&p overall, in tech, and even in health care. i think roots actually have more performance underneath than is visible. people are saying it's just fang and nothing else it's roughly 200 stocks outside of fang that are outperforming this year. that's actually not bad. >> how long can it truly last if it's as top heavy has it is? despite the fact there may be other stocks performing, but if you strip out the top ten biggest names, the rest of the market is out collectively. >> that's right. we're looking at what we call level 2 so that the groups

beneath the ten sectors, and there's a bunch of groups that look like they're about to break out including the banks. so i think one of the groups to watch is the industrials and banks because if they start to react positively to some resolution on the debt ceiling, i know there's a temporary area of the regional banks, and a lot of things could go wrong i would agree the breadth hasn't been great. >> the tactical overweight that you have on the kre, you know, the regional banks, why? why urge people to take what i think fairly some would suggest would be outsized risk just given what's happened in the space, and the idea that commercial real estate may still have a shoe or two to drop, and it would be felt perhaps most acutely there? >> that's right, scott it's a tactical bet we're making we -- there's a lot of

conditions that would negate that call, but our take at the time is governments and communities really do value regional banks, and so the slippage that you lose from deposits not paying market rates is going to diminish i think loan devalue isn't as egregious on commercial real estate as the last '08 cycle in other words, i think there can be an imaparpairment on r estate prices without losses i think if that means they can rise 20% or 30% from here, it's still worth a tactical bet because we don't think they're going to zero. >> what about the fed, tom i mean, every fed member seemingly who's come on this network within the last seven to ten days suggests it's foolhardy to think that we may be fully done sure, we may pause in june, but don't write future hikes off the

table. it's something that loretta mester gave on this, and it's been a dumb rum beat on that >> there are emerging signs coming from the bond market that say that forward-looking data is supporting a fed i think today's pce support that is and we sent that in an alert to our clients i think three things within that told us that future inflation is coming down, one that being the contributor to pce, more than two-thirds of that rise was housing, financial services which is abubecause of higher interest rates and car prices. i don't think that puts inflationary prices in the best lens, and the head inflation has come down and reversed a lot of that surge last month. so i agree, scott. i don't want to fight the fed, but i think the bond market is saying the fed might be able to

stop looking at backwards data and start to look at market-based data. >> the bond market has come more in alignment with the fed in recent days, and it feels like you still are fighting the fed at least in some respects even though you suggest you don't want to because at minimum, it feels like they may not hike anymore, but they're going to remain high for a reasonably, you know, what they suggest would be a long period of time the effects of that may nota fully be known or felt to this point. aren't you in effect, fighting the fed with a target year-end of 4,750 that's a long way to go from the 4,210 that i see right now by the way, stocks at the high of the day >> yeah, scott a couple of things i think nvidia tells us what stocks can do that aren't heavily shorted. nvidia didn't have a short position, but still did what looks like a sky needle move

i think a fed staying at 5% for two years is tight, but it's not an an an equity killer because the ten eurow tenure will see it at 3.5% or 4% this is where these take place so i know it sounds like i'm fighting especially 2022 market narratives, but if you look at a 90-year market narrative, tenure 3% to 5% is actually a 20 move, and it gives us the option value of inflation coming in softer. i think the thing we don't know is there's no tiebreaker yet, that inflation is cooling, but today's pce data tells us it could drop sharply over the summer. >> it feels like it's pretty sticky if nothing else, and the calls that you have had of late, and let's just say the last few months, that inflation was going to fall much further it was falling and it was going

to continue to fall much further, maybe somewhat suspect by the fact that it looks a little stickier, i think is fair to say that maybe some had suggested. let's welcome in cameron dawson, cio at new edge wealth let's continue our conversation. it's nice to see you what do you make of what tom has suggested? >> i think if we were to get to 4,750, we would be trading at 19 1/2 times 2024 earnings at $243 a share that is very expensive by historical standards, and the only times that we've traded up to those levels and you're looking on a forward basis, not a current-year basis, but forward basis is during bubbles, meaning the tech bubble, and during the covid bubble, and the covid bubble was supported by incredible stimulus to this market meaning money supply growing 30%, real interest rates negative 1%, and so if we look at where there could be risk if we trade up to those levels, but you don't have fed support,

you're really in a whole new world of territory where we simply would be trading at unpres unprecedented valuations >> tom, how do you respond >> as you know they say, your bubble is when a neighbor owns a stock that's making money. what i mean by that is i don't think the s&p is that expensive. it's trading at roughly 15 times earnings and, in fact, the two most expensive sectors outside of paying are health care and utilities and staples. so the question is if you are worried about valuation, i would argue there's a valuation bubble in defensive stocks in the same way that there's a bubble in money market cash balances households are sitting on more cash than any time since even the pandemic in fact, if you look at margin debt as a percentage of the s&p, it's down to 1.4%. that's -- that's the internet.com bubble low.

i think if we let price discover the stock market is saying that most stocks are at 14, or 15 pe. that's not expensive to get to 4,750, that's a 16 multiple i don't think that's bubble territory. >> i mean, if other part of what tom has suggested is, you know, even though you have had pretty hawkish speak is don't listen to that listen to what the bond market is saying and even though as i suggested, the bond markets come a little closer of late -- >> yeah. >> -- that's the place that you should look. inflation is going to come down faster than people think the fed won't have to do what it says, and the bond market is forecasting that. >> pricing in the pivot and expecting that to come where the bond market bends the fed to its will and gets it to price in easier policy has been the widow s maker trade. we're seeing it now where there's over a 60% chance of a hike in june

just over a week ago that was zero i don't think the fed is done, which means there's potential for upward pressure on interest rates and right now we're in this suspension of disbelief where interest rates apparently do not matter for the equity market we have had periods like this. they haven't necessarily lasted for long so either the equity market is expensive given the current interest rate backdrop or interest rates will fall because the bond market is now pricing in a too tight policy path we think it's likely more the former where interest rates are reflective of the real reality of this economy. >> it is remarkable, tom, isn't it, that the stock market has at least looked the other way as i'm asking you this question, i said we're at the highs of the day. we're at 4,210 on the s&p, greater than 340 on the dow. interest rates have crept up seemingly almost every day, and the stock market is kind of turning a blind eye to it. >> scott, i actually understand that narrative, and i think it

even -- it dove tails when someone is saying the bond market isn't necessarily saying there's a soft landing maybe even a hard landing because if the fed's serious and we have that curve, that's hard landing, but when you look at the market, and we know that much of the advance has been driven by fang which is solving inflation, i don't want to be sort of drawing out speculation, but, you know, one thing we have to keep in mind is that we're already seeing companies slow hiring plans because of the potential benefits from ai and machine learning that's exactly the dynamic that opal was trying to achieve when he was trying to push waves down there are mechanisms under way that explain why fang is leading and the rest of the stock market can kind of come into line with one direction or the other it's a soft landing. there's going to be a huge expansion in market, and i think that's why industrials are trying to -- autos even are starting to push above their

200-day moving averages and enter that trend, but yes. we haven't had a tiebreaker moment, but there are too many people in the camp that this is a hard landing and they're trying to argue that the stock market is irrational, but at the end of the day, you know, the fang move was actually -- it's really a thematic trade that's been built around ai and automation, and you're seeing the numbers from the companies deliver. in nvidia shows it. it's not a bubble. it's real growth. >> wyou're one of these people that tom is referring to hard landing, recession probably inevitable, and the stock market valuation now relative to your view is irrational to use tom's word. >> our call has been that a recession would come later than people expected and that growth will likely hold up better than expected and that's what we have seen to begin this year, and i think where we have been wrong or where we've seen the market move against us is that we did

expect better data which means tighter fed, and mostly for growth and tech stocks and that simply hasn't happened this year it could just be because of ai and because of the prospect of that e exploding to the upside, and it could be because of liquidity. we know liquidity has been a tail wind because of the spending down of the treasury cash balance there's been liquidity added to this market, and that typically is supportive of growth and tech valuations, and so it's a question on the other side of the debt ceiling as that liquidity fades. does that become an issue for these valuations >> tom, have you -- have you -- have any sympathy at all for those who suggest that we were -- we were saying the same ti ti types of things and using the same justifications in 1999 and saying, well, you know, then it was eyeballs and it was total address of the market, and here

we are talking about the adjustable market for a move that nvidia has had this week or marvell has had even greater than nvidia, and just got lost in the shuffle if you will, but how do you respond to those who say this is the same kind of stuff i heard in 1999, and we all know how that story ended? >> i think it's a good question to ask i was a technology analyst in '99 working in jpmorgan, covering a sector that had high valuations wireless. that market meant that when i told a sales rep buying stock over the next 12 months, they said, tom, that's a neutral. why are you wasting our time there was a changing market expectation of the time that you can make 20% in stocks in a week today the opposite exists. six strategists changed for price target for the s&p this

year interestingly, 4 of the 6 are still 10% below where the s&p is today. the strategists have become more bullish, but they think we're going to fall of a cliff i don't think any investor i need is constructive i was fortunate to meet many investors in companies over the last few weeks including at the summit -- the cnbc summit, and i found a huge divergence between how investors think we're already in a recession and companies that are managing through this really well saying, they prepared for recession last year, and they cut inventory or slowed hiring, and that recession is not happening they have to start going into early mode and expanding because they've really been on a huge, strict diet for the last 18 months >> i know you fancy yourself a market historian too, and i know you're well versed on the history of the market. now how do you think about that question to tom, his answer

relative to '99 and now? >> i think that we're probably earlier innings in this whole part of an upcycle over a potential bubble in ai than 1999 maybe we're a few years before that, meaning that we are seeing the earnings deliver, and you're not at the point where all the tide is lifting any boat that has anything to do with ai or not even close to ari. the thing with bubbles to remember is they can last a lot longer and get a lot sillier before they end. it's always important to remember that on the other side of the bubble, there's typically a crash. the biggest discipline is to always check and say, am i pricing in the entirety of the future growth into today's valuation? with nvidia, it's trading at a lower valuation today than it was two days ago. >> that's exactly right. the earnings, and that >> yep >> it just reminds me, you know, it was jim briar out of the conference that it was out, that we had our one out

this was '95 that this was the very early days of the internet, and again, we know how it ended. it doesn't mean it's going to be synchronous with that. tom, thank you so much thank you for joining us, cam cameron. thank you for joining us. let's get to the twitter question of the day. do you agree with tom lee that the s&p 500 can hit 4,750 by the year end we have more coming up let's get a check on top stocks to watch with pippa stevens. >> the big week for the chips continues. the shares of marvell technology surging. during the latest quarter, shares rising to their highest quarter in more than a year with their ceo saying ai represents a, quote, tremendous opportunity adding that while they once thought of it as many of applications within the cloud,

its importance and therefore opportunity has, quote, increased dramatically. elsewhere in the semispace, broadcom hitting an all-time high oppemheimer reiterating its outperform rating on thestock, and of course, earlier this week the company striking a multibillion dollar component supply agreement with apple. the shares up about 19% since monday, pacing for the best week in three years ahead of next thursday's earnings report scott? >> we'll see new a bit we're just getting starred. up next, tech's big ai boost. you know about it by now we'll talk about it with emj's eric jackson he's breaking down if the surge in the space can be sustained and if it's a good thing for the sector you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. dow's up nearly 350. the s&p, over 4,200. we're right back

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tech has retaken a top spot, but the majority of sectors outside the immediate ai are still negative in 2023 so is this growing divergence is bullish tail wind for the tech trade or a warning sign for that space? let's ask emj's eric jackson he's back with us. welcome back >> thanks for having me. >> that is a pressing question, but what i also note is from looking at, you know, what i have of your holdings, you don't

have a lot of ai exposure, do you? >> well, the ai has been dominated by big tech players and nvidia, of cbviously you had the nasdaq up 2% yesterday, and nvidia was up, whatever 25%, but arc was negative on the day yesterday. russell was negative on the day, and that speaks to kind of the story of the first half of 2023 so far it's been big tech-dominated a lot of the small or midsized tech names are back to kind of their december lows after a big jump to the start of the year. so i, you know, and i think it's reflective of the fact that you need a lot of money to invest in ai, and so that's -- it doesn't make sense that these big tech names have been the big winners about this interest in the computing platform shift to ai >> no, but i mean, ark for example is not -- i don't know that that's the greatest example, you know, kathy wood

got out of nvidia in january and missed the entire ramp i mean, had she stayed in nvidia, ark would be right there because of the weighting of the stock she once held along with a reasonably-size toed tech stock called tesla >> yeah, true, but taking nvidia out of the ark holdings, i mean, ark has kind of become symbolic of a certain type of tech stock. it's not the big microsoft, apple, google names. it's the next ygeneration names and my argument, scott, is -- and i think you quoted this stat with tom on the last segment is, like, if you took out the big fang names, i think you said something like the tech area would be up 4% on the year the point is we haven't seen the broadening out yet, and you could say one natural question is, man, this is a bubble and all these big tech names i've

got to come back down to earth where the rest of these other tech names are, or are we going to see, and this is what i believe, you know, a bit of a catchup and a bit of a broadening out of this rally from just the confines of the big tech names to the wider group of tech names out there? that's what i expect. >> the question i was going to ask is as you said, what would the question be, it would be why wouldn't we? why -- i mean, sorry why would we see a broadening out? if you are not in, let's just say, it feels like everybody on planet earth is in the big five, but then when you start looking below, it's, like, okay. well, maybe i'm in invidnvidia, am i in marvell? am i in amd? am any some of these other chip names that are going to be at the forefront of this technological revolution that's maybe where the money goes not all the way to the bottom ott tech stream. >> i, you know, you were having this conversation about is this a bubble, is this not a bubble

are we in 1999 and so forth previous to this, and i would say, you know, say what's my argument for why this is going to broaden out to more, you know, to more names in the world of tech, is that we haven't gotten to the silly stage yet. we don't see spacs ipo-ing the ipo window is firmly shut. this has been a rally that's only been with these big tech names. so we don't have stupid behavior we don't have stupid speculation happening. a lot of people have missed out on the move of nvidia, me included, and so i don't agree with cameron although i respect her work from the last segment i don't think that we are, you know, in this highly speculative phase yet. we don't see gamestops and other, you know, stocks exploding. i think we could be just at the beginning stages here of a bigger move. how big is this move to ai

really going to be you know, obviously when the world shifted to mobile in 2007/2008, that was a significant platform shift, but the metaverse wasn't that was a nothingburger i think ai is the real deal. when a company raises its guidance by $4 billion above consensus, that's real d, scott. that's not a bubble. >> i hear you, but i feel like to get the broadening out that you are talking about, you know, lower down the tech food chain so to speak, you would have to get to the silly stage and that would be every company under the sun starting to talk about ai as if they're players in it even if they're not, and that is what takes you over the line of what we witnessed back in the, you know, the bubble days of the late '90s. >> yeah, and i mean that always happens. we saw this a few years ago with

people putting block chain in their name of the companies. we saw it in the '90s when people started attaching a linux to their names and hoping to get a big pop when it became public. it's natural that people are going to put ai into their names. you have to be very -- it's a real move to ai, and i think nvidia is the key player here, and they are the compute that's driving this revolution, but you have to be careful with some of these smaller names like a c-3 ai for example there's more fizzle, you know, than substance >> are you short that name >> i'm not, but, you know, there are others like that, and once you get to the smaller market cap stage, i think you just got to do your due diligence on these names and there's a reason why these biggest players have been benefitting the most this year they have a lot of money to spend at this problem. smaller names -- people will find their niches. people will be successful, be don't just think because it has ai attached to the story that

it's automatically going to be successful. >> no, i hear you, and one of the things i think about is for somebody like you who doesn't have that much exposure in that area is whether you're thinking about doing some of that, but when i look at your recent moves for example, it's tradesk, and twilio and not in this epicenter of mania. >> no. i'm looking at nvidia even after this huge move because it has the chance to be the dominant platform of this particular generation for this move to ai the other name -- and people have been so wrong, but everyone's complained about the, you know, the pe of nvidia pe was expensive 15 years ago for nvidia they've always been on the cutting edge, and people always underestimated what their revenues and earnings are going to be, and you have to, you know, discount what consensus is, but i do think that there

will be this broadening out, and so there are some names like the couple that you mentioned, trtr tradesk, and even more so twilio, and they were flat on its back in terms of its valuation and historical multiples and tough. i like those names to come back. >> good stuff. be well. we'll see you soon, eric up next, the debt ceiling duel we take you live to d.c. for the latest in those negotiations plus, amazon shares accelerating today what's behind that move higher we'll tell you next. "closing bell" right back. - [soldier] i think we misjudged them. - i love horses. (birds chirping) - [soldier] we should open the gate. - let's see what charlotte thinks. - [narrator] at crowdstrike, we monitor trillions of cyber events to detect threats and prevent breaches before they happen to keep your business from becoming history. we stop cyberattacks. we stop breaches. we stop a lot of bad things from happening. crowdstrike. protection that powers you.

welcome back we're to ing the latest developments in the debt ceiling battle. we're live at the white house. kayla? >> reporter: negotiators are getting close to a deal, but now they're down to the final issues and they're proving to be thorny issues one republican negotiator telling reporters that the leaks are not helping and that they're not just trying to hit one type

of number, one spending number the they're trying to change the overall trajectory of spending in this country. here's house speaker kevin mccarthy in his own words. >> we know it's not easy, but we're going to make sure we're not just trying to get an agreement. we're trying to get something that's worthy of american people that changes the trajectory. so we're going to work just as hard we worked through the night last night. i thought we made progress yesterday. i want to make progress again today, and i want to be able to solve this problem >> the time frame for the debt ceiling deal and the overall spending level are two of the most critical sticking points even still according to sources who note that nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to, but there are still some contours of a deal that are starting to take shape for instance, we've heard from democratic sources that the deal is expected to see two-year budget caps on non-defense discretionary spending, but higher defense spending.

covid aid would be some funding for the irs, and work requirements for aid programs and permitting reforms are still ongoing. both ends of pennsylvania avenue huddled with their teams to figure out next steps. patrick mchenry, the gop congressman who's among the lead negotiators said it could be one, two, three days before they get a deal even as negotiators try to finish something by sundown tonight when the president is expected to leave for camp david scott? >> all right, kayla, thank you shares of amazon moving higher today better than 4% deirdre bosa here with what's driving that move. d? >> the amazon ai case is becoming more clear, and people are excited about the opportunity in the cloud unit which will be the infrastructure giving other companies computing power as they incorporate ai and you're seeing that play out in today's 4% pop, but, scott, this is not a home run like nvidia chips or microsoft's chatgpt so that's why when you zoom out

over a longer time frame, this is a major underperformer. the other dynamic at play here is what you are looking at right now. generative ai may lead to new products, new alontools to boost growth, but also new cost. it's a balancing act amazon cloud along with microsoft need to upgrade servers and infrastructure on the back end to give customers that computing power needed, that in turning increases the expenditures and when they're trying to be profitable and disciplined, and this is what it comes down to. in the ai hype cycle as you were talking about this with your previous guest, eric, you need to be talking numbers with marvell, and nvidia, and amazon is not doing that. >> thank you, deirdre. she's out in san francisco. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. about 20 minutes left. pippa stevens standing by. >> one stack is popping as it makes its debut. we've got the details coming up.

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just about 15 minutes to go now before the closing bell. let's get back to pippa stevens now for a look at the key stocks she is watching, pippa. >> hey, scott. well, arista is firmly in territory as names that could benefit from the ai boom analysts are largely optimistic

it could deliver the high performance high capacity infrastructure that ai requires. that stock was less than 1% from its all-time high at today's session high, and it's only a few minutes away from its best week since 2021, up more than 17%. and atmos filtration technology shares come into spin off and raises at least $275 million in its debut. that makes cummins one of the largest ipos in a year like this so far it opens at $20.67 after pricing at $19.50. scott, back to you. >> pippa, thank you. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we ask ydo you agree with tom le that the s&p can hit 4,750 by year-end head to @cnbcclosingbell on twitter. do it quick because the results are coming after this break.

the results of our twitter question we asked, do you agree with tom lee that the s&p can hit 4,750 by the end of the year the majority of you said yes all right. we'll talk about that after the break with mike santoli, of course we also have some startling market stats that might surprise you. why our next guest is forecasting that for this year as well. we'll take you inside the market soern. -- zone.

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i mentioned yesterday the wonderful tradition here in new york city around memorial day. it is fleet week, and as you can see the men and women of our military making their way into the new york stock exchange, onto the floor where they are going to ring the closing bell today, and they're going to be led by admiral darryl cotle. he is commander of the u.s. fleet forces command he is highly decorated you can see he is behind the podium here, and he'll get ready to go upstairs with a select group of folks to actually ring the closing bell his personal deck larations by e way, include four awards, the he john of merit, four awards, navy and marine corps commendation medal, five awards, and then the navy and marine corps

achievement medal. we salute the men and women of our military and we remember the fallen as well on this memorial day. we will take you to the market zone now as we wind down this day. seven or eight minutes to go or so our cnbc commentator mike santoli here to break count crucial moments of the trade dd day. mark dietrich with us, and leslie picker. all right, mike. so we're going for a close above 4,200. the dow is up good for 330 what do you want to leave us here for this holiday weekend? >> actually, understandable to a degree that the twitter poll had people thinking that there could be a decent amount more upside because of the way that the index itself has accrued itself, and everyone is scrutinizing it and for good reason talking about how uneven it is, how lopsided the leadership is, and

the last time we were basically at 4,200, just shy of that on february 2nd is when we first reached it this year the market actually looks less expensive than them because earning estimates are a bit higher at the same time, the average stock is actually a fair bit lower, and therefore that much less overvalued if you think it's overvalued at all yields may be higher right now it seems as if nothing is particularly out of whack except this unease around the fact that the market internally has been out of gear, and you have had so much dominance by these handful of huge stocks that are able to seize upon this new ai enthusiasm and that one, big fundamental affirmative story that people are willing to play right now. >> you have some big spikes this week, mike, to live up to in the weeks ahead, and it's not just nvidia it's as i said, and werve have n looking looking all day, and marvell has had a bigger day than nvidia

it's astounding. >> it has, and i think it's really the speed and magnitude of the revenue estimates going up as you basically have a buying panic to build the capabilities, and the stocks are trying to catch up for that. maybe othey're overinterpreting it and extrapolating in this demand, but it seems like an incredibly localized kind of excitement in this one area. not a lot of broadening out in terms of, you know, people saying, let me buy some super speculative long shot on this. it seems to be the ones that have something substantive underneath it. >> ryan dietrich, what does this tell you we finish this session and this week, and remarkable it's been in many ways as we've discussed what's happened in ai and tech and whether it tells you anything about whether you think it can continue or not. >> scott, thanks for having me again. happy memorial day, and thanks to everyone who keeps us safe it is the 100th day of the year

this is a really good start of the year we looked at history, scott. when you gain at least 7% this year like we did this year, the rest of the year gains, like, 9.5% on average and it's been up about 89% of the time. yes, there's lots of different factors, but the research team, we have been over it with equities for awhile. look at today's data consumption -- real consumption is at 6% the durable goods number was good the earnings in nvidia, and we talked about it nonstop. we don't think we're in a recession or redheaded to recession. that's likely above 4,200, and probably have a surprise on the rally here. >> at some point, you need others to come play, don't you >> you talk about market breadth and i totally agree. mike pointed out it's the large names. we are overweight small caps where we added small exposure. we think it'll broaden out with economies not going into recession.

we need to see that, but if somebody is blindly buying one thing, sure buc, but if you buya basket of stocks -- s&p had the new low for almost seven months. you look back on history, and it's rare for the s&p to break the previous lows. we have been on a record saying we're not breaking those october lows and it's more signs that we can go sideways at 4,200 or more, but the economy looks good and we're going higher in our opinion. >> we'll talk to you soon. ryan detrick and leslie picker, what are we looking for? >> we do, scott. this is the so-called ha data that the fed puts out after the bell on fridays. if you recall last week's data show deposit levels as of may 10th indicating yet another decline. all commercial banks at the time combined saw deposits fall by $24.4 billion to the lowest level in almost two years.

over the last month, small banks experiencing the bulk of the withdrawals with deposits down more than 3% at small banks compared with 0.9% at large domestic banks and total outflowout outflowed regardless of size the data is a bit dated though ever since may 10th f w, if we t to look at stocks for comparative purposes, it's up more than 5%, more than double the gains of the s&p and dow over the same time frame obviously stock prices not quite the same as deposit levels, but they do tend to have especially in this current environment somewhat of a cyclical effect as customers see stock prices fall. they make it a little jittery, take their money out, and stock prices are rising. we'll see if we get the opposite effect. >> thank you that's leslie picker mike santoli, so the dow has been down five days in a row we'll end that

the nasdaq has been up five days in a row and we're extending that broadcom and salesforce reporting their earnings and this will be key to this ai road ahead. >> it will, and we are i think at the tag end of earning season and it's enough for people to say it's flattened out a opposed to taking a step down. that takes some of the valuation pressure off obviously and the economy as ryan was saying, it hasn't stumbled as readily as people were perhaps positioned for. i think this is a battle-tested market in the sense that we took the hit from rates spiking because we got hot january data, and took the hit from the many regional banking crisis, which is a slow bleed as opposed to a panic, and i'm not saying we're justified for every penny in the s&p 500, but it seems as if we've been kind of burning off that pessimism that's built up, and we're seeing investors reluctant to play here i'm not sure if that's enough

upside in a strakt ight line, bt it explains why we got here. >> we're going for 4,200 and above, and we'll 'if we can get that closed. 6:00 p.m., and we'll let you take us out. have a good holiday weekend, everybody. a rally into the holiday weekend, but we're not done. winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell overtime." i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. breaking news as we await the latest bank balance sheet from the fed. we'll bring that to you as soon as it crosses. >> plus, we're on debt ceiling deal watch as we head into the holiday weekend and inch ever closer to janet yellen's june 1st dead palline we call it an x date