funds we have and seeking to get the right kind of funding to hire air traffic controllers, do the things that the flying public counts on >> reporter: next time the first time we e3 million backs in , m normal. have a great holiday weekend, a great memorial day. that does it for us at "overtime. "fast" starts now. >> right now, stocks rallying as investors hope lawmakers are close to striking a deal on the debt ceiling the nasdaq and s&p the highest closes since august. nvidia closer to becoming the first trillion dollars chip stock. why don't retail traders seem to be getting in on the action? and a sobering trend that's what the chart master is seeing in the large cap russell 3000 stocks. what it means for your money

plus, it's friday. you know what that means we we have got the chart of the week for you this group stuck in the seller after a massive run, a bigger breakdown coming we have answers. this is "fast money. we start off with an a.i. boom for markets. wall street piling into the trade helping the tech-heavy nasdaq 2.5% gain this week, fifth week of gains. nypd's blowout earnings and guidance and forecast for tremendous potential in a.i. adding fuel to this fire but there is an unusual dynamic under the surface. retail traders appear to be sitting on the sidelines as the stocks are rallying individual investor flows into a.i. sensitive names have been muted. why isn't the a.i. hype driving traders back into the market or maybe they will go into the market and fuel another leg higher what do you think? >> i think the retail investors

normally like cheaper stocks they like lower priced stocks. they can buy more of that stock. if you look at during the meme era of stocks, they were buying a lot of cheap stocks, heavily shorted stocks you can't say that now nvidia, no shortage. nvidia, over $300. so i guess if you look at c 3 a.i., that's as close as you can come look at the chart on that one. that looks to me like retail investors have been buying it, selling it, buying it back cheaper stock than nvidia. it has -- ands name is a.i., right? so that one probably tests that premise off the bat. >> its ticker is a.i how much is that worth today do you think it's just a matter of time before retail starts getting in the point in the note was that it was banks doing a lot of the inflows into some of these names. >> i think steve makes a lot of good points. i agree with some of them.

i am looking at the same thing from a different lens. look at some of the names that were heavily involved by the retail, right. tesla, amc, gamestop and bitcoin. tesla's down 50% from the 21 peak amc down from 3640 are gamestop from 81 to 73 -- >> is that earned? if you look at the carnage what do you think that does to the psyche of a retail investor? a professional investor would be taking pain, would likely have his risk manager tapping him on the shoulder right now i think there is a psychological aspect then like the housing boom boom that happened in the same period, that offers an alternative to where you invest those dollars. you have been burned in the high volatility situation you are not able to park your money in a stable asset and get similar appreciation the last thing is just reopening of the economy and return to offices we can argue the extent

thereof we with don't have much time to fixate how to trade your portfolio around it makes it a bit more challenging for the retail investor to participate. >> are you surprised by this, guy? >> i agree with steve. that's exactly right steve's point about the stocks are expensive in terms of a price level makes a lot of sense. and the other point about these folks getting burned, look at amc, gamestop, bitcoin is eia great example. people don't have the time necessarily that they had in the peak of covid when a lot of people might have been home working clearly but more time on those thingsto actually trad i don't know if it's a tell necessarily on the market of where we are going i think it's important to bring up and i think to a certain extent i think we have explained a lot of the reasons why they are not there. >> maybe the tell really is the inflation in these prices. i don't mean to cast aspersion on the term. inflation meaning just, you know, the stocks going up by so

much, tim. what does that say about the markets and how quickly this happened i mean, these are just jaw-dropping gains in just a couple of trading days >> well, and i'll disagree with the guys just to be that guy today. i think the retail investor is here i think the retail investor never ran very far we look at more of the broader flows from retail investors, especially during some of the peaks of market call it volatility and whatnot, the retail investors hinge in there. microsoft and apple within 2% of all-time highs i look at semiconductors breaking out to all-time highs i think that was -- we know that nvidia did this week look at semiconductors more broadly as a group if you're using the smh. not only do we break through that december 2021 relative high to the s&p, which is, i think, a very important point for the market here, semiconductories are leading the way. the retail investor through difficult times and we talked

about this also at various times where the microsoft, apple, amazon, netflix at 52-week highs, the money market stocks for the retail investors retail flows overall actually belie the view in the theory that the retail investor is not getting involved in this market and if anything the institution positioning and the sentiment from bank of america and all the other folks that measure where the lo professional community is say they are the most nervous and underweight in this market right now. >> yeah, maybe also the fact that nvidia had high short interest going into the year, you know, really tells you sort of that the institutional investor may have questioned this and not traded it this one particularly well. >> when nvidia, when how look at them, they started off as a gaming chip stock and doing just under $2 billion in revenues from that. then it became a data center story and they were doing double that amount. now it's an a.i. story which in

conjunction will use the data centers and the gaming chips so now everything is clicking all at once. but these valuations have blown out to what we considered extended now are tremendous enormous, use any word you want, but it's very hard to figure out where you should be a buyer of these names. sometimes you are have to hold your nose because expensive stocks have a way of getting more expensive cheap value stocks get even cheaper. >> part is the radical change in the perception of nvidia and chip stocks in the past couple of months. in march nvidia announced 4% cut to the work force. things are viewed completely differently just a couple months ago. now we are talking about nvidia and a.i. basically saving the market look at the massive gains in the mega-cap tech stocks thanks to a.i. >> yeah, no question

i think as carter is going to say in a couple minutes it's setting the market up for something else nvidia back a couple quarters they weren't saying particularly great things then the a.i. realization realization came and they hammered that home they did a masterful job of focusing on that when some of the other businesses were not doing so well. valuation, right now at a $1 trillion effectively, i'm rounding up, clearly, even if the most ambitious people out there in terms of revenue, you talk about a stock that's probably trading 25 times revenue, that's historic for a chip stock, especially with a chip stock with that market cap, which we have never seen before. >> yeah. i mean, a $1 trillion valuation on 27 billion in revenue, i mean, listen, there is no argument against the fact that the valuation is stretched i don't think that's what it is. to me, at least, nvidia is kind of viewed as a tangential play

as opposed to a peer play. it has more risk to live and die on this a.i. scheme. you saw the same dynamic happening with the whole web three move meta announced the logic was you need these processing ability that nvidia clearly has a leadership position in in order to kinda make this move it's the same situation with a.i. where there is still an underlying operating business that supports at least some type of cast flows there and then you have the upside with the a.i. adjacent as opposed to chasing a name that is going to live or die on the act to deliver on a.i. front. >> you like nvidia here? >> i do. i have trimmed some. that's just about -- but in terms of did i get out, no i am still in. >> in addition's gains this week before wednesday's earnings report the chart master thousand dollars this iought this chart looked so good, it was bad that hasn't panned out what's the next move for the chip stock carter braxton.

>> i myself bet -- i owned puts going into the numbers perhaps you don't want to hear from me on the subject i mean, equally straight position of my monday piece title semiconductors make sure you are long semis relative to tech it's a perfect example of do what i say, not what i do. semis doubled the performance of tech up 10% versus the tech sector up five decent idea. yet i, myself, went and bet that it would have an outsized move and would be down. let's look tat a few charts. nvidia in relation to its 150-day moving average with the gap up, you see it there let's tuput it in context. this going back ten years. again you're just simply seeing a stock, nvidia, with its average trailing price over 150 days, 150-day moving average final chart for nvidia, look at its percentage right now above

the 150-day. basically, 78, 79% this is as steep as its ever been the history. data since the ipo, you are getting one of the most extreme readings on record, which is to say typically when it's gotten this far, it's right to trim, calls, take some measures as other people sort of lose their minds. >> but this is not prompting you to say to sell the position in nvidia >> oh, i mean if i had this as an individual or ifpy i were managing a portfolio for others, i would be reducing for sure. >> so, carter, why don't you take your own advice curious. >> that's why they have that expression that's why it's -- well, so, again, i also could have done a

straddle at the end of the piece. you don't want to be directional, buy a strad am. that would have worked, too. i thought we would get aboutsized move. but the beauty of options you can hear more at 5:30, you spend less to make more or lose less >> right that's we will see on "options action" at 5:30. tim, that chart is scary looking. >> it's scary looking. we've seen how these charts can get scare your looking one of the conversations we had this morning on the call, talk about rotation out of health care, i think there is rotation across of -- obviously, defensive sectors, not just staples, not even just cpg and where we have seen some of the consumer discretionary it's been resilient like nike or lieu. broader rotation into higher growth stuff not just five stocks look at communications look at software

look at crowdstrike, october that, adobe. so to me part of this is part of the same story and i would look at the qqqs. i think the qs will do the same thing you f and i think they have 10 or 15% up to that relative position to the s&p again so you could dwiivide thes by the spy in the same way the semiconductors against the spy so i think that's what we're looking at for the broader market and that's why i wouldn't be fighting it in the absence of a debt ceiling fiasco and a fed really articulating a much more aggressive policy. that's what stock markets are doing now and i think you stay in this trend. >> it seems bizarre kind of for talking about this, you know, possibly hitting up against the debt ceiling and going into a recession the back half of the year to be in high growth, high multiple rising interest rate environment, high growth, high multiple stocks and yet here we are. that's where you see the gains

>> the nets -- listen. clearly i have been flummoxed bit thing. adobe was a $700 stock in november of '21 and i think it's trading 415 or so now. it's bounced nicely as well. you have participation on a broader set of stocks, but it's the big -- again these stocks with market caps north of half a trillion dollars and up with moves that are -- we are going to talk about broadcom in a little bit look at the move today i am jumping the gun here, but it's not normal to see companies of that size have 10% moves over the course of a trading day. now, can it continue to steve's point? i guess. we are pushing the snfl here, folks. >> worried that you missed the rally in nvidia? there may be a way to squeeze more gains in this stock first, we are not done with earnings salesforce, lululemon.

plenty more on the calendar xtne week which names are the traders watching much more "fast" in two. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones

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a mighty week of earnings ahead. results from salesforce, macy's, lululemon and more so which is the one reporter traders are watching around the horn, tim start us off >> yeah, i think it's salesforce i talked about software and i look at crm not only a tremendous run up 65%-ish from mid-december, outperformed the s&p like a lot of stocks, over 50%. i think it's about margins and what the demand environment is i want to hear what's going on in enterprise. there is no question that in many of these customers and many of these kind of recurring revenue receivables you have seen companies start to question whether they are going to spend their next dollar. we haven't heard that from christmas. we have seen a company watching the bottom line. >> guy, broadcom. >> this is a name we like.

in my wildest dreams i didn't think you would see an 11% move. i guess the good news is, you can make a good case on valuation. it trades at a multiple multiple or slightly less, actually, and it strads at ten times revenue which pales in comparison to a name like nvidia obviously, a little bit of a different animal, but this is one where valuations actually compelling the problem is at 11% day like today into earnings, what are we setting ourselves up for i'm fascinated to see what they are gonna say thursday if they keep this momentum going. >> steve, you're in retail here. >> capri i am looking for a pop like in abercrombie. everyone thinks they are going to guide lower if they do, it's in the stock. if they don't guide lower, you will see a pop the same way that you saw in abercrombie middle of march the ceo bought $10 million worth of stock doesn't mean he knows anything

but there is only one reason why you buy a stock. you think it's going higher. you could sell it for a multitude of reasons if they continue the buyback the way they are doing right now at the same pace, company becomes private in less than five years. >> that's interesting. are you worried about china? >> not particularly. i think that you have lot of other companies that are more exposed to china plus, this one has de-levered an emoan enormous amount over the years. >> i am in the retailer complex. i am trying to distill some key takeaways from the consumer. so when you look at what's come out so far, you have seen revenues shrink, margins hold up i want to know if that -- >> chewy >> no, generally speaking. i am looking for a port in the eye of the storm because i would assume that there is a certain amount of demand for pet-related products you may trade down on your chips

or your sodas or whatever, but fido, you are going to make sure he gets the best, right? >> you trade down fido's food, too. >> perhaps there are real pet enthusiasts out there that i think will continue to drive top dollar demand there so i really want to see whether that shoe drops and i am able to glean out strength of the consumer or whether i think it's going to the left and down. >> i feel like you may not buy the extra chew toy. >> i wouldn't. >> no doubt. [ laughter ] >> i get your point though coming up, it is friday. you know we have a chart of the week could this week's move be a sign of a shaky foundation for one group? answers after the break. cnbc is celebrating asian american pacific islander heritage here is a founder of kinsey capital partners >> i feel very fortunate to have grown up an american but also with a deep appreciation of my korean roots. when i started my career in

finance i didn't look like everyone else and found i was often misunderstood and underestimated but i learned to take a seat at the table and contribute by finding my voice and using it. i have found strength in the asian american community which has given me support and confidence, especially as i went off to launch my own company each of us has our own superpower and it's up to you to use that power to create success on your own terms.

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week yes, that's week with an a home instruction etf eking out a gain, losing 3% since monday 30-year fixed mortgage rates topped 7% this week for the first time since march are this week's moves a sign of more pain in the housing trade in this is the builders have done well individually. >> it's unbelievable how well the builders have done when you have a mortgage rate that has doubled, doubled, it's really -- you haven't seen the cost of these homes get cut in half so maybe that's not the knee-jerk reaction but the prices of homes hat nos not com that should make the ability for someone to buy a home for that i have been shocked at where the builders have been but they have become more efficient. i think if rates stay up here for longer period of time, you are going to see that flow through. we haven't seen that yet. >> i guess it's what kind of

audience you sell to, guy. tell brothers did well they cater to wealthier homebuyers. >> it's interesting. the itb, if we look at it quick l 25% is dhi, the number one holding. huge double top around 112 and nbr, a $5,000 stock, we don't talk about it, but another huge double top so if those start to roll over on a technical basis, this itb could really be vulnerable the next couple of weeks. >> yeah, i agree, it could be. zoom out from week and look at the year up 20, 25% for the year. if you look at valuations, which i believe steve drilled down earlier, these are still part of the cheapest part of the market. so i think that does provide a tailwind there. >> time for the final trade. guy. palantir, i think the a.i. trade i think palantir is the way to play it. >> tim

>> used to be a mega-cap tech company. now paypal is just certainly a payments company and one i think trends are getting better. again, their margin and share at the ceo search i think closer to completion stock's been destroyed and you look at the charts, in the bottom. >> and carter mentioned the challenges of the overall market the russell 2000 iwm, i think there is a lot of pain points. >> steve >> looking for a big pop on earnings. >> that does it for us "options action" is up next. [office sounds] ♪upbeat music♪ ♪♪ ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪ ♪♪ ♪seems impossible to face♪ ♪a lovely day (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day) (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day)♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business.

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