fueling this trend right here in new jersey it requires anyone under 18 to have a chaperon fridays and saturdays after 5:00 p.m >> a couple of fights in the food court or something like that >> i don't think twice go see "the little mermaid." >> thanks for watching, everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thanks so much welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange this make or break hour begins with the mania many including nvidia hitting new highs yet again another. this as questions intensify over whether it is all too much too soon, and a bubble bound to burst. we discuss that with our panel of experts in a minute we're watching for any developments outside of washington right there is the capitol where the house rules committee is talking about the debt ceiling over the weekend and a relatively tight range for

stocks today the nasdaq once again where the action has been throughout much of the day meta, and microsoft, apple, and amd among the tops there they lag, and it leads to our talk of the tape nvidia becoming the first ever chip stock to reach that milestone, an astounding run for a stock that has just simply soared what now though is the question? is it time to protect some profits? let's ask bryn talkington. it's nice to see you how are you thinking about this? are you tempted to take some chips off the table, and have you? >> i have not. i have positioned appropriately, and as i said last week, nvidia was underowned going into earnings, and boy, did we see how underowned it was. you've just seen a massive pile-in of investors who haven't owned nvidia which has been a

publicly traded company for 23 years. i do think though, the move in general has gone so fast, and i think it's -- i think it's gotten too fast, too quick because, you know, jensen said, scott, on the call, that he thinks over the next ten years -- not over the next two, but he thinks that data centers essentially are going to be recycled and reclaimed using accelerated computing, but that's ten years out, and i think chatgpt captured all of our imaginations of what ai could do it clearly captured nvidia's market cap, but i think how companies monetize, how much double ordering was done with nvidia, we just won't know, and so i think a frenzy will happen, but as we know, frenzies last way longer than all of us ever expect. >> i love to try to get into the mind of an investor. i think our viewers would really like to channel the same i want you to listen to what josh brown, a longtime nvidia investor told us today on "halftime report" as he said he trimmed a quarter of his position listen

>> basically you have arguably the best stock in the world, but it's 46% above its 50-day moving average. that's the sixth highest reading ever, and you just have to say to yourself, how likely is it for there to be strong gains in the very short term from here? it's not impossible, but the likelihood of a reversal grows >> so explain to me, you know, give me the psyche of somebody who loves the stock while at the same time suggesting, yeah there's a bubble how can one exist at the same time >> it's about managing your position, right? as i said in the beginning, he still has 75% of the position. he sold 25%, and so i think that long-term investors think that way. just because it's so amazing what's happened, but if you look back, since nvidia has been a publicly traded company, there have been eight years where it's

had a return of over 100%, and, in fact, in 2001, in 2016, the stock was up 300% and, like, 216% respectively, and we're not at those levels yet. what's hard is you have to know how to size the position because so few people own the -- get that long-term return of stocks because they just can't believe it's going to continue to go on. >> let's bring in stacy roska. we have been with you every step of the way before earning, after earnings, and we'll take the pulse yet again. is the pulse beating too fast? do we need to slow things down >> wellook, yes, so the signifin upside we're getting at is it a pull forward, like, from next year or is it not? i don't think we know yet. that being said, i think it's definitely not a pull forward

over the next few quarters they're having the demand. they're having demand in the second half. knowing vidia, they probably think they can beat that number. i would not be surprised to see numbers continue to go up in the near to medium term, and then look even if we get a pull forward -- undoubtedly it will happen, and they don't have digestion cycles, and i think it's hard to argue that the opportunity in front of them is not large, and that we are not early. we are clearly early this has just begun. i think the opportunity is enormous i think we are at the paradigm shift in terms of how data centers and how other centers are architected. if we look at 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, i'm convinced the upside is considerably more in front of us than it is behind us over the next year,i guess you worry about next year when we get into next year, but at least the next year reportereporters, numbers go higher, and not

lower. >> what just astounds me and others is how the guide could be so far beyond what even the very best on wall street expected, and i put you in that category you have been one of the top rated chip analysts for as long as i can remember. so how does everybody -- how does everybody seemingly get blown away and blindsided? >> it was -- look. it was a big number, and you have to remember, like, if you were for example, if you were looking for wafer starch or something in taiwan as an indicator, it's not that many wafers, and these things are very high, and it's not that many units relative to, like, the smartphone space we sell, like, 1 billion or 2 billion smartphones every year what does that do for data center $100,000 or $200,000 a year? it's not that many incremental in the supply chain

for that kind of stuff, and that starts to pick up in the second h half, but we knew they would have upside. we knew that, but just the magnitude of it, it doesn't take a lot of wafers for example to drive that much revenue just because the asps, the prices on these things are so high >> let's bring in another c contributor of ours, adam stacy, you know him well >> hi, adam. >> he use to be for all of those of you who don't know, at bernstein, as a ship analyst >> assessing the actions, yes. >> we're fortunate to have both of you today along with bryn, so when you look at this, it's now sort of the innocent bystander of sorts what is your view? >> i mean, there's a couple of things on the macro side that weren't mentioned, just that i.t. budgets aren't going up, and the economy is slowing, and

we're caught in the magnitude toward the shift in ai stacy is spot on, and probably a better number than me, but it's 30 times the price of the gpus than the servers you have the same number of units and the pricing is huge, you know, i think there will probably be supply con trants and that will be another issue it's interesting to not have gotten some word out of taiwan because in my 25 years of this, i've never seen a revenue guide with that much upside as nvidia. going from $7.15 billion consensus to $11 billion, and the magnitude is massive in my meetings, i'm doing mostly with cios, and in general, they're trying to figure out the broader perspective, which stocks might benefit or get destroyed, and thinking of that. i'm kind of with stacy there, and bryn too, that you don't want to value it on 2023 or 2024

cash flow. we wrote it when it was $700 billion cap, but it could be worth $2 trillion >> are you now rethinking the way that you're thinking about everything in your coverage universe, and the potential if there's a legitimate ai use to it and what it means to the way you need to think and model your numbers? >> so clearly lots of names have been running on ai hope, right people have been looking for not just the ones that have been in the same way that nvidia has been peripheral and derivative plays around a lot of things like networking and cap, and if nothing else, every company outside of semis too is going to try to construct an ai story whether or not they have one, and i think, like, through the relevance of the narratives is going to be important, and look. maybe it's possible that some names -- there is an ai story that people weren't thinking of, and maybe it's possible that some names that are getting an

ai-type valuation, maybe the story isn't as strong as people think. that will be the controversies that i think we'll need to be thinking about as we go through the rest of the year the market is clearly identifying winners and losers right now, and are those stories actually, like, valid or are they not >> i think when you are a port foal fo -- portfolio manager, you're trying to look at things in the next 6 to 12 months, and in an economy or market that's eroding, that's hard it's not surprised people want to be associated with an ai story where there's upward revisions and stacy probably talks to more people like this than i do, but if you are talking about just in semis, amd's revenue is more q4 into next year, and nvidia is now, so you have that pair trade, and there's a lot of things, but if you are looking back, you need beneficiary exposure to ai. >> bryn, you're the one as the

investor of our group here who really has to decipher what's legit and what's not, and what's a good thing, but not as fast a grower are you feeling the pressure at this moment to do just that? >> no, but it's always about what multiple do you think the market is going to pay for x or y. >> all right we lost -- i thought i lost my own audio, but you can't hear bryn either. we'll try and get her back if we say where we are, adam, at this moment in the market -- >> right >> -- each incremental day that we say, okay new high, microsoft, new high, meta, new mie, nvidia, does it make you nervous >> a little bit. i'm not really sure, and we started the year saying bullish first half and bearish second

half, and everybody was saying the opposite, and you saw my note from yesterday. i'm uncertain about the next 10% move or if we get the next 3,800. you've got notable people saying the more optimistic, i think the fed will be more hawkish than what's in the price, and so, you know, i'm just sort of more balanced and trying to find places where there's upward revisions. i'm doing work on ai and trying to figure out the beneficiaries, but we're also trying to figure out, are there things where expectations could be too low that have been beaten up energy, metal, things that are important to ai in the long-term. so i'm focused both on beneficiaries and those that can't be disrupted >> as bryn, as we have your audio back i'm told, this idea of the investor class trying to decipher at this moment, trying to cut through the noise, break

through the hype, and decide what has the correct growth trajectory to justify whatever valuation some of these stocks are now at today, and may ultimately trade to in what feels like the really near future >> right i mean, just look at the cues. top holding in the cues will be the beneficiaries. meta, google, nvidia, apple, microsoft. it's, like, once again these companies are going to continue to grow. i know how microsoft is going to monetize it. these big companies are going to make ai embedded in their companies and make it stickier for us as the users and then charge more for that i think the direct way to go is nvidia and microsoft, but to stacy's point, we are in early, early innings. there will be lots of new winners that we're not even talking about today. >> yeah. so stacy, as you look at your coverage universe, i don't even know frankly, if you cover mar marvell, or a name like that,

but you do amd when you see these others who are along for the ride so to speak, you know, who are the ones that we really need to pay attention to that we're not talking about every single day >> my coverage, it's getting a little bit of attention, and that's broadcom. they're benefits a couple of different ways and they're doing their own chip design broadcom does that, they call it asic they benefit from that, and they have a design and that's a huge part of this as you're putting this stuff together. based onwhat they said last quarter, they were effectively calling for these ai revenues across the chip networks to be coming around the semiconductors this year. that was three months ago. whatever they saw three months ago is higher now, i would guess. they report on thursday and we'll see what they have to say about that, but that's one of those less appreciated ai stories.

it was not directly in compute, but -- they're not selling, like, compute chips but it's other things that are equally important, and they've got a bigger percentage of their revenue for ai than marvell or any of the others. >> i appreciate you being with us >> any time. >> i look forward to our continuing conversation as i continue with bryn and adam for the remainder of this moment you say the picture is increasingly negative for equities more broadly. >> maybe, yeah. >> does the ai story though, sort of mitigate some of the negativity do you realize that we're on the cusp of this, you know, incredible new, technological advance? it's enabled investors to some degree for lack of a better word, hide out and play some defense where the real offense of the future is going to. >> in late march, we wrote a note and talked about, why is the market up so much? is it all the fed? no, it's not all the fed there's a lot of stuff going on in ai, and obviously we've got a

pretty big quarter on that, and everybody is talking about it. the main implication i'm focused on is valuation and how that might not be an effective predictor of a term, and if you are saying, i want to buy cheap stocks and expensive ones, what you are really doing is shorting those that have a higher probability of being disrupted and long those that have beneficiaries. everyone wants to talk about valuation, but maybe within benefi beneficiaries, marvell is up now, and they would be a little bit more negative on amd, and just very short-term, something like that within beneficiaries, but i don't want you want to be long chegg and short nvidia because it's cheap i think the valuation thing is what pms are really trying to figure out, and the more macro, you're right ai is a beneficiary, but growth will be lower because of the bank stuff, and fed will be hawkish, and so, you know, i

think, you know, you probably have to think through, you know, bond yields have backed up the premium isn't as compelling. i don't know if the next 10% moves up or down, and i don't know more than i knew at the beginning of the year. >> we can build on this, rethinking how you think about valuation in general, and what you -- what you thought might be a little too rich or ridiculously absurd, maybe it turns out is not >> i think that investors that anchor on pes are always going to miss it because when you look back to decades of data, scott, one-year forward returns and market have zero correlation that's for people anchoring of buying cheap stocks, you need a catalyst, and right now the catalyst is in growth, and growth is in ai. continue to look for good companies, good sectors, and the rest will work do not anchor on multiples to construct your portfolio.

>> real quick, i agree with bryn for a very fast-growing stock. you want to do the opposite. you want to buy the expensive and short the cheap for that 10% that's fastest growing she's spot on there for the growth stocks. >> thank you let's get to our twitter question of the day. we want to know which ai stock are you most bullish on right now. is it nvidia, microsoft, alphabet, or meta? you can head to @cnbcclosingbell on twitter, and we'll share the results later on in the hour in the meantime, we'll check the top stocks to watch as we head to the close kristina is here with that >> ford's stock could be headed for more upside. that's according to jeffries after the bank upgraded the auto maker to a price target of 16 bucks this year. they proved ford could close the gap with its rivals of, quote, going back to the basics shares are 4.2% higher shares of tesla are also higher after elon musk makes his first visit to china in three years.

his visit highlights the importance of the world's biggest electric car market which is tesla's second largest market after the u.s., and how beijing wants to open or show it's open to foreign business. barclays analyst shows the stock is well positioned for more gains. shares are almost 4% higher right now, scott. >> we'll see new a bit thank you. we're just getting started here up next, lauren goodwin from new york life investment is raising the red flag on what she says is a new selling risk for stocks. she'll explain. and later, energy stocks under pressure yet again we'll tell you what's seconndin them lower you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back we're following a developing story out of washington. the house meeting on the debt ceiling is now under way our eamon javers is live >> take a look at the rules km committee meet right now that's the first step before anything can go to the floor for a vote they are meeting now the republicans control this committee by a 9-4 margin. speaker mccarthy should have home court advantage here, but there's been a lot of discontent among the freedom caucus about this debt rdeal we're watching this meeting in case any of that spills over into this committee. some unhappy members have been talking about the possibility of forcing mccarthy out of the speakership. i don't know if it'll amount to

anything serious or if it's just venting for now, but mccarthy said, in essence, we didn't get outsmart beed by the democrats. we'll see whether we get any indication here if the deal is in trouble on the hill >> thank you we'll watch that very carefully. our next guest says resolution could create new risk for equities let's bring in lauren goodwin of investment management. what's the new risk? >> it's not even a new risk. it's one we have to grapple with now which is one of the major supports for the market over the last five months has been the draining of the treasuries' account to pay the treasury's bill and keep the economy running. now as we raise the debt ceiling and i do believe that's going to take place this week, the treasury has to rebuild that general count. there's about $500 billion that have drained over the last five

months, and by the treasury's own estimates, about $1.25 trillion that need to be raised that's a lot of supply and a lot of incremental supply over what would normally be raised that now the market has to grapple with for risks and equities. >> you don't think it would be better absorbed for lack of a better word than some are suggesting, who of raised the same issue by the way that you have over the last couple of weeks. >> i think it depends on who is buying these t-bills and how much supply is necessary we've seen for example, money market funds see huge amount of flows over the last four or five months at the same time as this treasury general account has been -- has been losing or pushing liquidity into the economy. if that supply is gobbled up, then great we have a market that handles it well, but the sheer volume nearly double the pass is noteworthy for the market. >> did it make you broadly more negative than you were before? >> i think it's -- no. it doesn't make me more negative

it's just an interesting trigger point in the areas of the market where we could see some weakness when i look at what could specifically trigger is a selloff here in the second half of the year, this is one of the items, but probably the more important fundamental economic ones are if we start to see unemployment claims rising and a second quarter of negative earnings growth, those are signals that were headed closer into recession >> do you think the fed's done >> it's looking a lot more difficult here in the last couple of days with just consumcon consumer spending from april up 10%. that's an astonishing number. there's a lot of support for the economy up there i think the fed could be done here, but if we have a higher than expected jobs report out of friday, it's increasingly likely that we will still see another rate hike in june. >> see at what point do we suggest and say, you know what this good data is good and it's

actually good and changes my perspective on what i thought was going to happen, whether i thought there was going to be a mild or deeper recession, but the longer that the data remains supportive of the economy, isn't that good rather than a negative everybody takes it as good news and bad news because it reengages a fed at a time when we're thinking they're done. >> that's exactly it though. the good news is only good news if we can see the resumption of spending and the persistence of economic activity with inflation at normal levels even though the disinflationary process has been intact, inflation is way above target, and the fed, whether you agree with them or not, and i happen to agree with them, but when inflation is strong, it hurts normal people more than even the short-term impacts of recession in the medium term, and so we have to see those inflationary figures come down before good news is just good news. >> i mean, richmond fed

president barkin today said interest rates are, quote n restrictive territory. you can read into anything they say and make your own conclusion, but the implication would be that we're there. we're there, and we may stay there for a longer time than you think, but we're there, and we don't necessarily have to raise more, but if the economy were strong, it's the perfect scenario is it not? >> i'm sympathetic with the scenario that the fed could pause here that 5 or 5.25 is where we could pause we're seeing consumer spending and that's typical of an economic cycle that's the least set of dominos to fall. they could wait. what's going to be challenging for them is the -- is the persistence of this data if they do continue to hike. that's when the risk of a sharper, more revere recession increases.

>> we have a jobs report friday. it's good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. up next, five-star stock advice capital wealth planning's kevin simpson is back, and he's breaking down his latest trades for us as well he'll reveal the one tech name he's pulling back on plus, an interview you won't want to miss, rick rieder is here on "closing bell" 3:00 eastern time we have a lot to taltoimk h about. looking forward to that tomorrow we're right back ♪ rebecca is there when you feel not so hot. ♪ ♪ this is larissa, who's feeling glown up. ♪ ♪ and this here is winnie, who zhuzhed up their cup. ♪ ♪ this is victoria, helping women stay healthy. ♪ ♪ these are your kids, snacking snacks ♪ ♪ made with veggies. ♪ ♪ and matty can help ♪ ♪ you find your new favorite color. ♪ ♪ and kyle helps find meds for under 10 dollars. ♪ whoever you are, wherever, whenever, at cvs, healthier happens together.

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watching the market today, and the dow was the worst levels of the day it's really bad, and yet again a nasdaq story the nasdaq's up .5%, and nvidia has been the story again before we call it a midday pullback just a bit as we continue to watch this market trade and head towards the end here still above 4,200 on the s&p 500 with just less than 30 minutes or so to go. the nasdaq 100, a number of

mega-caps hitting their highest levels in more than a year ago the tech acceptsentiment ai is n but our next guest is talking about profits. joining us is craig simpson. i said to bryn trying to get inside the mind of an investor who's watching this unfold, new highs for meta, and microsoft, and nvidia, et cetera, et cetera at what point do you decide, nied to take profits like you did with microsoft >> every time you're see a- like this, and these stocks, they're going to the moon. we've got to size the positions and we come in with a rules-based approach, looking at things from a risk management perspective. we like to keep a maximum of 5% waiting in any one name. microsoft, up 36% or 37% up year to date gives us an opportunity

to sell into that strength, put some dry powder on the sidelines and we have a 5% allocation, but the multiples do get a little bit stretched and heck, everything having to do with ai is pushing these things higher and higher so we've also seen increase into the space, and we have been able to write calls on microsoft did well with that trade last week and even a few minutes ago, we wrote calls for june on microsoft again looking to capitalize on that volatility. we like the name, but we're taking profits into the straight >> do you think it's a bubble? all this stuff that's going on in the market around ai and all these stocks you have seen a lot of markets does this feel that way to you >> i think it's starting to, and that's the problem because you've got legitimate companies that are making money, and you can invest in them, and you can own them, and we own apple, and we own microsoft, and we're going to continue to hold onto them nvidia's not in our space. it's not in our universe, but boy, what a run that's had but if you think back to 1999, the dot com bubble, if you think

more recently to 2020 sitting around in may, all of the stocks that were going to be koeftd stocks and all of the work at home companies, no one wanted to miss them. it gets to be the same thing what i'm concerned about is that a bubble could happen if we start to see companies that are nonprofitable, just taking advantage of investors looking to get caught up in the hype >> but let me ask you this so what you just said of nvidia, quote, not in our universe why not? i mean, is it just too rich, and isn't that the whole point in some respects of writing the covered calls that you do? i bring it back to bryn. she employs the same kind of strategy in many ways that you do she can own nvidia, and writes covered calls gen it why not you? >> bryn has a great strategy as well ours has to be a dividend-focused company, and the dividend on nvidia is inconse inconsequential, and the growth isn't there. every stock we invest in has to pay a dividend and has to have a

strong dividend growth i'm hoping these stocks become part of our universe, and they can be candidates because specifically to your point, scott, they're unbelievable companies to write calls on, and if i was a shareholder in nvidia, i would take profits and be writing covered calls, and i would be using the protective put strategy to lock in some of these profit that is we've enjoyed. again, i'm a microsoft/apple guy. nvidia can be done the same way. you can look at the trade the same exact way as professional portfolio managers we don't get the luxury of hyping any one thing i can't get into ai because it sounds cool. we've done the same thing for 25 years, but it's easier to get caught up in it and i would caution people to be careful. >> you reminded me of the specifics of your strategy in terms of it having to have a dividend we showed the next to no dividend that nvidia pays when we put it on the screen. thank you for doing that

you sold calls on dow, do w inc. >> aside of the stocks that have been going to the moon, the rest have been trudging along in a purgatory, and we have been trying to tread water. the dow position has an amazing dividend we have the calls on it and we're taking advantage of trying to make money, and get paid while we wait in the flat market, ai stocks excluded the stocks also went dividend today, and we picked up another 75 cents on it, but this is a stock that's been languishing and anything having to do with health care, industrials, energy, all the things that d dividend managers like us are invested in, they have not enjoyed the rallies so far so we have been looking to generate cash flow we talk a lot about dividends, but diving in to see what that translates to is important it matter on an annualized basis, and it's cash flow. the covers we have been writing

on dow, and deep percent an annualized premiums. what we wrote for microsoft, it's over 10% annualized premium, and that will exprior on june 16th even in a market that's with hot ai and the rest of the world, there are things you can be doing to take advantage of it and we're long-term investors. so to your point, you know, we've seen a lot of hype things in our day, but we're enjoying exposure and we want to continue to do it with microsoft and apple. >> i'll be quick on this i noticed you trimmed slb. are you turning cold on energy. >> no. we have had pretty good waiting in chevron and marathon petroleum. it's just right, sizing the position we want to have cash and dry powder and i'm sure everything will go smoothly in washington and there's no chance -- there won't be any contention or chin-wagging and posturing just an off chance they mess this thing up, we want to have dry powder in our pocket for the next couple of weeks.

>> we'll talk to you soon. thanks as always. >> uthank you. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers kristina is back with that >> energy names are getting slammed in an important week, and an analyst suggests this market cap, this one stock would move about 8% higher i'll have the names right after this short break

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15 minutes to go before the closing bell let's get a look at the stocks that kristina is watching. >> if you believe in crypto's rise, then you should believe in coin base. that's the message of atlantic equity analysts after they upgraded with a price target of $70. they're trading at $60.87. they like the trading business resulting in higher trading volumes. stock is up 71%, almost 72% year to date. oil fell below that $70 a barrel threshold for the first time in a month from mixed messages ahead of the opec plus meeting this weekend while russia continues to send record amounts of oil to china, and there's also concerns for the rate hikes by the fed which is also weighing on the sector that's why the s&p energy sector is 1% lower today, and 9% lower

on the month that's on the s&p 500. names like coterra, devin energy, marathon oil are all among the weakest links right now. you can see on your screen, marathon down about almost 2%. devon, almost 3% coterra,dominion not trading like it has been in over a decade. scott? >> thank you last chance to weigh inne on ou twitter question which stock are you most bullish on head to @cnbcclosingbell on twitter, and the results are right after this break

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show the results of our twitter question we asked, which ai stock are you most bullish on? well, go figure, nvidia is the winner nearly 44% of the vote up next, we have your earnings rundown hp, hp e, and box all out counting it down with the metrics u ed to okyonelo out for when we take you inside the market zone.

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we're now in the market zone cnbc's commentator mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments and marcy m mcgregor is back, and frank hold land looking ahead to key tech earnings mike, i'll begin with you. if it's cyclicly sensitive, it's not doing well it's getting drowned out. >> yeah. >> and you heard from our poll, it's all about nvidia. >> it's the one, what you would call affirmative story out there where something is actually progressing. it's positive, and we can see a trend. the rest of it is just exactly how much have we priced in already, and and the consumer discretionary, and industrials, they have a same look to them. they were kind of hanging in there, and and that's what the overall market is doing right

now. some of the most overheated names in the crosshairs of the ai traders, nvidia, down 4% to 5% off the high, intraday. who knows in the fever breaks in the short-term, and ai and the earnings let's see if that's desocisive e way or the other, and see what the rest of the market does, and doing no better than hanging in there. no new lows and new highs. he has netted out into this slow grind to a marginal pop above what we thought was the ceiling of the market of 4,200. >> marsha mcgregor with us the rest of the market that mike is speaking to just now, where do you see it going this summer? >> i see a market that's really struggling to break out of this trading rapg in a decisive way, and when i think about this

summer, you have an economy that's continuing to slow. i think data is going to confirm that as we get into the heat of the summer, and i think you're going to have a market where you really want to be diversified and really want to be balanced and tilt up in quality because there's so many unknowns out there. with an economy slowing, then we have very likely the debt ceiling deal behind that, so that might remove liquidity from this market. either you get choppiness, but i seed it as a buying opportunity if you have a two or three-year time rising and have excess cash, i would be buying on volatility >> go back to this class half empty versus glass half full half empty says economy continuing to slow half full says economy remaining pretty firm. >> absoluteliy, and that's whats happening here we're seeing a rolling recession versus how the manufacturing is thinking, and you have the consumer and labor market that have been really resiliresilien.

the internal data says the pursestrings are tightening up, but it's not falling off a cliff, and i think that gives me a lot of conviction in our view to be a mild recession and i call it a reset because the fed is trying to slow the economy down they will get their way, but i don't see this being more than a reset when we get to the back half of this year. >> what do you make of the ai trade? have we gotten too top heavy does it matter to you or not >> when i see this market, which is certainly more concentrated and typically bull markets are fairly concentrated, then this market is really concentrated relative to history. the top ten names are responsible for 100% of the gains this year. i want to see a market tell me about market health. in the meantime, i see this

mega-tech as another search for quality, you know, for the standout names in an uncertain world. so long-term i without a doubt think this ai moment is like the iphone and like the internet moment and it's going to be transformative, but this is a long-term theme and not a trade in my view. >> good to talk to you, marci frank holland is watching this hp and hpe and box, frank. >> yeah, you know, a lot to look at here. we're looking at three different parts of the tech universe hp inc., hp q, and enterprises, and we have the storage players and just box as you can see on the chart, let's start with hpq it was $3.20 to $3.60 a share. we saw a steep decline in pc

shipments and they upgraded forecasting a 21% increase over the second half of the year wen it comes to pc shipments the largest maker told us he expects a big second-half rebound whit en it comes to pc shipments. let's talk about hpe morgan stanley upgraded that today as a beneficiary of the macro trend of return to work. computes where it gets about 45% of revenue and the performance here was going to answer a lot of questions about i.t. spending outside of ai. hpe has a segment focused on ai and high-performance computing investors looking for any news about deals demand there and box, will ai disrupt this business and billing for box just giving a sense of demand and not the whole story. that number is rising 5% year of year a lot of questions about the future of storage with ai and

the willingness of companies to spend on storage in this environment with so much disruption right now, scott. >> mike, how are you thinking about this pc is bottoming and getting a lot of good clues here >> yes, although the starting point is very different from a lot of the stuff we're talking about, which is these are companies hp and hpe, priced for little growth, if any. it's all value any kind of accelerant to growth will be considered a bonus as opposed to assume, but a different starting point, but definitely interesting i think it would be particularly fascinating to see if, let's say hpe would catch the tail wind, and that's going to feed that idea that traders are just grasping for any way to season this trend and stretching way too far in trying to impute an ai story where there isn't one. >> that's going to be the big thing when it relates to tech or anything else. when it relates to the ai

community and whether you are a player. >> and the question is to what degree any of that is just additive or if we're just talking about the same-size pie, and it's the ai that's pulling budget away from other things. that's probably going to be an issue for some of the software companies here, but it is funny because every single thing you bring up comes with a yeah, but. right? even coming into this year everyone was leaning toward it's a recession. hot january data says, that's bad news the fed's not done we got the credit crunch, and it's bad news, but it doesn't seem like it's blowing up into anything we get maybe a more dovish fed than we anticipated and that seems like a bad news story because we're waiting for the credit impact, and then fascinatingly debt ceiling, it's a big overhang we get through it immediately, and everyone says, uh-oh watch out. massive treasury, and yields are going up my only point here is this is a pretty battle-tested market. we have been dealing for a year and a half with people expecting bad things, and they haven't come to pass at least not in a

way that has shocked the market below, you know, where we got to certainly last october >> we got more data in front of us too all right. there's the bell s&p, and it looks like it'll hold onto 4,200, and the dow will be modestly negative into the close. im send it into overtime, and we'll see you tomorrow the major averages that is the scorecard on wall street, but just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime." i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. wear watching software and hardware as we await results from hp, hpe, box, and umbrella. we'll bring you those as soon as they cross. >> and we'll talk to fed vice chair roger ferguson on the odds of a june hike, as they go up,