you have the 737 max being delivered, orders coming in. >> freeport, they're executing really well with free cash flow and debt pay down. >> all right i'll see everybody on "closing bell." "the exchange" is right now. thank you, scott welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what is ahead this hour the labor market is still strong bank of america says so is the consumer but two big retailers reporting the opposite and inflation is falling fast, if you look at realtime data so are we getting a rate pause or not we'll look at where to find opportunities in this market and speaking of opportunities, could dollar general be one of them that stock plunging 20% on a lousy report, but one analyst says the stock is a buy.

and the great de-stocking, how goldman describes what's happening in the energy market the long-term goal remains in tact let's get a quick look at the markets with stocks here session highs. the dow swinging more than 400 points today, up 218 the lowe was minus 204 the nasdaq, adding 1.2%, back above 13,000 the s&p at 4220. chinese tech seeing nice gains, up more than 5%. finally on track to snap that eight-week losing streak these are all among the leaders in the nasdaq today. and retail, very much a mixed bag. one notable outperformer is chewy, whose shares are up 26%, best day ever on customer growth so the consumer, while not buying other goods, are still spending on pets and nordstrom is still up a

respectable 3% after its first quarter sales topped expectations they also reiterated their full-year outlook. different story than macy's, which is -- no, it's gone green. it was down 13% when it first crossed this morning on the wires with that lower guidance, but much better tone throughout the afternoon. more on the retail trade ahead philly fed president speaking now steve liesman has the headlines. >> thank you very much, kelly. he's saying we're close to the point where we can hold rates in place. yesterday, he talked about skipping, saying skipping was not holding. but today he is talking about holding rates. he says there are promising signs the fed rate hikes are working. the economy remains healthy amid those rate hikes and expects inflation to fall to 3.5% this year, and 2.5% and meet the target in 2025 unemployment will rise to 4.4% this year, a full percentage

point higher i want to look for purposes of the conversation we are about to have, at the probabilities you can see here we have flipped on a dime this week. we started off 70/30 in favor of a cut. we're now in favor of a hold we have pushed ahead you can see that there is a 40% probability there when it comes to the possibility of a hold and then 47% for a hike and 13% looking for 15 basis points, so we'll see if that remains the case after harker speaks and the other folks have been out there. >> so harker's hold, is that more dovish than a skip? >> i think so, i think so. ly point out that my producer, betsy spring, does point out that yesterday's marks were not scripted, today's were so i don't know if he wants to upgrade his skip to a hold or if it was just off the top of his head typically when they talk about these things, they think about their words very carefully

i don't want to get too overly l linguistically geeky about this stuff, but he is saying hold today, skip yesterday and not a pause. >> and the dow up 209. steve, stay with us. let's hive deeper into the economic data and whether or not the fed is winning the fight against inflation. joining me now on my two guests. welcome to you both. when your gauge fell below 3% this week or last week, it garnered a lot of headlines. explain how this works and what it is telling us >> basically, we use fresh data. we aggregate some 18 million items that we track daily, and so we just use that and take a modern technology based approach so that the data we use is fresh in the calculation

>> the critics would say your data is high beta. in other words, when prices are rising as we look at your data a year ago, when the cpi was 9% and you had 12%, now that the cpi is down 4.5%, you have 3%. is it overcorrecting on the up and down inflection points >> well, we don't think so we obviously think our data is taking a more accurate calculation. we're including 15 million items versus just taking 80,000 items which the bureau of labor and statistics reviews and track manually with 477 employees. we just believe we're slightly more accurate. based on the stress testing that a lot of wall street firms put us through, we actually are some, in some cases, up to six months ahead of where the fed is >> one more question, then i want to bring in steven. when i look into the roots of

this project, it came out of the crypto world and has this almost inherent expectation of dollar debasement and inflation maybe i'm wrong to breathe into that are you yourself surprised that your reading is posting a sub-3% -- i'm not sure that's where this project was headed. >> i never thought this project would get as much traction as anticipated. when we first started, inflation was transitory, it was never going to happen. if you look what happened in the next ten years, we printed more money than we did over the last century. so that is -- it has to include and incur some sort of inflationary impact. and so i felt we needed to have some sort of independent source of truth that's what we started to work on and build out today, with e now track more items than i can keep track of we really just put that and let the computers and the

algorithms, and do the calculations, which by the way are pretty transparent our methodology has been documented and tested, and the ratios are also tested and transparent and visual so anybody can see the weighting of the data and the actual subcategories under the 12 categories that feed up into the true cpi, as we call it. >> steve, i wanted to make the point that the fed itself has a version called the cleveland fed now cast they try to take bailey fuel prices with other things, and that's telling us that june pc and cpi could be barely above 3%, so it's consistent with what true flation is saying >> sure. if he's created a better mouse trap, we'll all flock to it, for sure are you capturing services in there? >> sorry, i didn't hear that >> are you capturing services

inflation? >> yeah, we account for that, yeah >> your index looks a lot more like the goods index than it does the overall index, which includes services. >> your recent slide has been making the rounds on wall street, because, listen, people are totally always following your valuation calls i want to talk about nvidia in a moment but on the inflation point, you are hawkish right now, so when the fed consensus is moving towards a skip or a pause, maybe, you're a little more concerned about kind of the inflation coming out of the bottle, so to speak. so explain that a little bit >> i think the truth is, there's good news coming out of inflation right now, but our history with inflation is it's stubborn it doesn't go away easily. and in many ways the worst thing the fed can do is step back too soon and then have inflation come back. the next time around, it will be even more painful. but i think the good news about

inflation is, it's out there, the question is will it persist or will there be some kind of a bounce back in inflation we don't know yet, and i don't think the fed does, as well. i don't like the way the fed is playing games around this. i think the fed should be like children the less you hear from them, the better off you are and having fed people going around saying things about what they will do, i don't think that helps the market in any way. >> so when you look at banking, i mentioned the true flation project. is it possible that this inflation will be more transitory, especially if the economy starts to weaken considerably in the coming months >> it's definitely possible. i think that everybody accepts it the question though is, plausible doesn't mean certain as long as the fed feel there is is a significant probability that inflation can come back, it

behooves the fed to act against it so my worry is that the fed steps back and inflation comes back in august, september, october, then we repeat this whole process we went through over the last year and a half again. and that pain is not worth repeating. so i would rather that the fed hang in there, do what needs to be done to feel that inflation is behind us, then jump too soon and say okay, we're going to pause and maybe inflation will be defeated. >> steve, as we think about what could power inflation from here, the only thing that comes to mind is the labor market so, you know, okay, wages maybe can get us there, but we'll talk about the labor market later on, but it doesn't look as strong as it did maybe a year ago. >> they revised away some of the hourly compensation in the productivity report this morning. the adp wages data has come down, it came down two sicks to

6.5% and the bernanke papers suggested that wages were not a big part of the initial impulse of inflation, but they now will become it. because the goods and the supply chain stuff is fading away, and that is the thing that powell is focused on it's why i asked, and i'm interested, to see if there is a special services in it, because that's the thing powell seems most focused on. this idea of services, core services, housing is what he is interested in. that's not been behaving well. it's kind of stubborn and it raises the fact that economists don't like to talk about this, but there is a huge behavioral aspect to the inflation that worries me the idea that you somehow cross this threshold, whereas before the conversation between the buyer and the supplier was, are you out of your mind raising prices go back and check it again, and

we are now in a different milieu is the best way to say it oh, it's only 5% this year that's great, i'll take it and there's no pushback. so we have opened the behavioral flood gates up of accepting price increases. >> and our producer, chelsea who is getting marries has a contract that says the price will increase if cpi goes up so steffen, one last chance here if you can speak to steve's point whether it's on services or based on some of your realtime data in the housing market do you see more realtime pressures in those areas of the economy? >> we see the inflation coming down a little bit. we haven't predicted what vls will announce later this month but what we have seen is that it has sort of plateaued a little,

and actually, a slow uptick. gas prices have moved up gas is obviously huge for all the supply chains, for transportation, as well as less heating, but now more cooling maybe. and then you are seeing the same around the housing market. the housing market has bottomed out and maybe even picking up a little slowly. so that will -- inflation will be around as we just heard from the professor that that is going to be the case we don't think inflation is going to go away what's happening around the whole deglobalization, the on shoring of manufacturing, now the cost of capital associated with it, the times have built out that new infrastructure, all of those are going to lead to continue wou-- continuous capit. you're taking out for scale and from an rnd perspective.

our saving grace is technology it's block chain, decentralized finance that is reducing the cost of stages in the middle, or middlemen. and you have equally ai. all of a sudden, we're automating a lot of features, increasing productivity per unit out there. so that's sort of our view what is the fed going to announce we will be announcing our sort of outlook in terms of what is coming closer to the time, because this is 14 days away, and we just focused on outcasting similar to the cleveland fed. >> all right thank you both really interesting stuff we appreciate it oswald, stick around my next guest says the inflation and macro confusion comes down with bifurcation between wall street companies and main street ones joining us now are my guests julia, great to see you. you're kind of saying, listen,

the barbershop, these kinds of mom and pops are not as much the kind of things we hear from when major companies report, but they're an important part of the economy. >> yeah, they're the majority of the employment in the u.s. economy is in these small and medium size businesses it makes sense you don't need a lot of capital if you are a lawyer or a law firm, but you do if you are a manufacturing firm so it makes sense that these are publicly traded business sometimes we lose sight of that because we are so fixated on global themes like what is happening in ai or on shoring and offshoring but i think if we lose sight of that, it creates cognitive disnance in investor's minding, like how is the economy really doing? it's hard to gauge >> julia, do you think that this is a kind of environment where it favors the big getting bigger and investment wise and so on or

n not? >> certain things are going to be beneficial for larger firms because they have the resources. ai is a great example where the big get bigger because you need a lot of resources to make that technology work. but as a small and mid cap investor, there are plenty of businesses that have very strong franchises in a specific niche, and they're able to execute really well on them. >> oswalt, i'll turn to you on that everyone was talking about your nvidia move. is it correct to say that after the massive run, have you sold all of it or paired it back? >> i sold half my holding. i'll hold off on the other half. but let's set the stage. this has been an amazing company. the reason i held it is because i call it my opportunistic chipmaker. whether it's crypto, gaming, and now with ai, it always seems to be the first in line to be able to take advantage.

that can't be accidental but the runup has been so astonishing, that i can't hold on it to in good conscious and call myself a value investor >> so you are say thing is a reversion to the 2012 to 2021 market is that a good thing >> i don't know if it's a good or bad thing it is what it is the realities of the $3.1 trillion in market cap added to the u.s. equities this year, $2.8 trillion of that has come from large-tech companies. and that is pretty much the pattern we saw through 2021 is the bulk of the rise in market capital via equity is from big tech companies i don't know if this is a reflection of how economies are increasing toward those tech companies or whether this is a market aberration, but it is what it is i think we need to accept that when i see people complaining about the tact that the market is top heavy and 60% of stocks

are down, 70% of stocks are down, that's been the phenomenon we have had to face for much of the decade, not just 2023. maybe we need to start adapter investing to the way the market is, rather than trying to make the market adapt the way we want to be. >> that won't make anybody feel better that missed a 200% pop in nvidia julia, i know you like to look for quality names, but i can't imagine you piling into one of these semi ai plays, but maybe that's where the market is >> yeah, i think for us, we're long-term investors and our average hold period is five years. but we have held things for decades. we are trying to find these businesses that can compound over time. i think they exist not just at the large-cap level, right what is happening in big tech is just being able to capitalize on an important trend in the environment. if i think of a small mid cap name like a bentley securities

sths that is a very niche focus, something that can execute really well on, and they're profitable i agree that you have to be very choosey and find ones that are durable and competitively perfected. >> so was it bentley that you said i just want to make sure we show the correct company. just to build on that, then, do you wait for the market to pull back do you think overall valuations are too high or do you feel -- especially the way things are trading, do you feel comfortable still being able to find stocks at these levels? >> i think in small and mid-cap land, you are seeing valuations, some of them are back to 2008 levels so there are interesting opportunities throughout what's interesting is it's become, at least in the small and mid-cap land, it's become much of a stock picker's market, instead of the narrative driving stocks broadly, you are seeing fundamentals come into play. so businesses that are maintaining or raising their

guidance are doing very well and businesses that are having -- are getting punished so this has been a great time for us to focus on quality, because those are tending to get rewarded right bentley is bigge american airlines now. we'll leave it there thank you to both of you coming up, a shocking turn for dollar general, which is now reversed back near its pandemic lows on pace for its worst day ever after slashing its forecast following a miss on profit, revenue and same-store sales we'll dig into that. crude is coming off its worth month in a year and a half what is the commodity super cycle stuck in the mud jeff curry is here with the latest outlook and here is a look across the markets. even the russells are positive today, up 1.1% nasdaq still the strongest, up

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way, up 159 points here are some of the movers. c3.ai gave some disappointing guidance for the current quarter, overshadowing a smaller than expecting loss. but still, the shares up more than 200% since january 1. advanced auto parts, shares are down 40% just since tuesday, almost 5% today. and they're at the lowest level since 2012 wall street's racing to downgrade the retailer now, meantime, bullish commodity investors have been frustrated for over a year as oil prices have remained lower since peaking in the beginning of the russian/ukrainian war crude is coming off its worst month since 2021, hanging around

$70 a barrel but my next guest says the disconnect between strong demand and weak price action can be attributed to the great de-stocking. joining me now is jeff curry from goldman sachs good to see you again, jeff. welcome. >> pleasure to be here >> i heard about this this morning, as well high interest rates are causings so it's not that demand has been weak, but it's just that supply has overshadowed that? >> well, it's not a phenomenon that's unique to oil we see it in copper metal and the entire commodity complex there's three factors. one, higher funding cost you can't hold a financial position think about it the cash return is 5.25% risk free that's the competition to get

somebody to hold a physical barrel of oil. the second reason, the recession nar concerns why do you want to keep inventory around if you are concerned about a recession? we continue to de-stock the physical and financial barrels it's nearly a billion barrels of de-stocking over the last year and a half and if you look at floating storage of iranian barrels, they are being run down so basically, the market is de-stocking any and everything they can get its hands on. the one thing about oil, it cannot go on we are getting to nearly the end of it. the physical market will pop that makes the return for holding oil once again profitable and people will likely unwind those short positions, rebuild some of the physical eninventor to be de-stocked that's why we are positive the

second half of this year this de-stocking cannot keep on going. >> it's fascinating, because other industries that got burned in the pandemic are keeping higher than normal inventory levels yet in crude and in metals, it's much lower than normal what are the long-term consequences of that upward price pressure, or when is the last time we were in such a situation? >> we have never been in the situation where we have seen 500 basis points of an increase in rates in such a short period of time from such a low level so you think about the cost of holding a barrel of oil. you have to borrow the money to finance the position, call it 7% and then your loss is another 5.25%. so you're losing nearly 13% by holding that barrel of oil so when we think about what it's going to take to get somebody to hold a barrel of oil or a metric ton of copper, you need this market to move higher. make oil an asset instead of a

liability. ut ultimately, the physical market will get tight tough that it pops, unwind the shorts that pushes it higher then you have the trend come back into the market our target is $89 a barrel we're $97 at the end of this year so if you get back to those levels, oil starts to become an asset again, opposed to being a liability. >> what has demand been like since january 1, as we have enough data to know whether china's reopening fell flat or contributed to a decent amount of demand, or how is that fkt affecting the market >> the iea has raised oil demand forecasts every single month since november of last year. every single month since november of last year they have taken up the demand forecast to it's over 2 million barrels a day. that's far from a recession.

same thing with copper, aluminum, the rest of the commodities. demand is up it's not showing signs of a recession. so it has to be coming from the supply side. de-stocking government inv inventory, destocks paper and commercial barrels we see it across the board, but it has to come to an end the point being here, overall demand is holding up, which then exacerbates the problem of de-stocking. >> the only obvious way this could play out is if the u.s. or the global economy weakens more than expected. >> yeah. by the way, they have already priced in, we think immediately, $10 to $15 a barrel to the downside so you have priced in a lot of that recession already through the position from a paper barrel perspective, you have liquidated over 250 million barrels over the past month. that's a lot of oil, the

equivalent of the spr discharge. >> last question with opec coming up this weekend, is there a rift, is there not a rift, does it matter what is your expectation for what the group is likely to do or not do? >> they're caught in the same conundrum, do they target the price or the fundamentals? the fundamentals say no cut. the price says yes, cut, relative to their target, that $80 to $85 a barrel. that's typically when they act our base case is they will not cut, they will formalize the voluntary cuts from last april in the broader group this time around, and that means shifting around the quotas. but it's probably not going to lead to greater cuts here is a stat for you opec has never cut three months after announced cut when inventories are below the five-year average. so you put a high probability they just formalize thecuts from april, and we get different quotas out there

let's not discount the probability that they do something. i know there's a high level of frustration is what is going on in the prices, particularly given the large short positions that are in this market. one point i want to say about the short positions is a lot of this has nothing to do with the view on oil. they're hedging out recessionary risks, because equity has gone up sell the oil as a hedge, buy the equities, and we know what the nasdaq has done. >> fascinating jeff, thank you so much. still ahead, the best month ever for broadcom in may have nvidia and marvell sethe t bar too high "the exchange" is back after this she gets exactly what she ws and only pays for what she needs. she picks only the perks she wants and saves on every one! all with an incredible new iphone. get iphone 14 pro on us when you switch. it's your verizon.

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i'm tyler mathisen with your update the u.s. government threatening auto parts supplier arc automotive as it intensive its safety probe into 67 million dangerous airbag inflaters the nhtsa is ordering the company to answer questioning under oath and says it will impose fine it is it doesn't respond. the recall is needed, officials say, because two people have been killed in the u.s. and canada spirit airlines says it has revolved the network issue that led to widespread flight delays today. according to one flight tracking website, less than a quarter of spirit's flights were leaving on time this morning. spirit said it's working hard to

get back to normal operations, but travelers should get to the airport earlier, check into their flight and the status often. a new york college received one of the largest gifts ever. a no-stranges as atrtached $500 million gift was made. kelly, back to you >> maybe they need to kick t up a notch for my donations this year thanks, tyler. coming up, dollar general on pace for its worst day ever after slashing its forecast and it missed on revenue and same-store sales what does it say about the consumer and the economy that's next. starting a new chapter can be the most thrilling thing in the world. there's an abundance of reasons to get started. how far we take an idea

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welcome book "the exchange." the retail wreck of the day is dollar general shares taking almost 19% to a fresh 52-week low today. the bar ggain retailerare theeda 1.6% increase in comp sales, and significantly slashed its full-year guidance that echos a similar guy didance from dollar tree last week so what does that say about the consumer, the economy, and this trade? my next guest is still a buyer let's bring in anthony, managing director at luke capital markets. great to see you, anthony. you're saying, you know, they

can't get no respect here. why? what's happening >> i think that there are very legitimate reasons why these stocks have sold off i mean, you have to remember, it's not just most of them missed first quarter expectations and lowered guidance for the full year that was on top of already reduced guidance so it's like a double whammy having said that, these are very much cyclical issues, not secular issues specifically, inflation is still stubbornly high, and what that's doing is leading to stronger sales of consumer items, think food, health and beauty care items and weaker sale of discretionary items, and they make much higher profits but there's still inflation throughout the supply chain, but these are cyclical head winds. >> but these stocks aren't acting well. dollar tree last week, they

lowered guidance and they said it would shrink, as well. maybe that would lower the bar for dollar general, or maybe they were expecting to benefit but to have back-to-back, two major declines tells you something is wrong with the sector or the consumer, especially a day after advanced auto is there a sudden stop happening here 6 >> i think what we have seeing, inflation is still stubbornly high in the case of the dollar stores, the income tax refunds were lower by about 10% in the u.s. and then you also had some increased snap benefits that went away. so you're just seeing all of these head winds the interesting thing is that their target customer, they are working. inflation is much lower for blue collar workers than white collar ones, and they're seeing significant wage growth over the past couple of years, but it's just not enough quite frankly.

to some extent, i'm not an economist, but to me, what this says is that the fed has got to stop raising interest rates. enough already and quite frankly, i think that the fed should consider lowering rates in late 2023, early 2024 enough already >> i want to pull you back on camera to have you repeat that, ohhing because the fed, they do want to hear from businesses, but what do you think is going to happen? is it going to take too long to show up in their data. so make the case >> those are all backward looking indicators why was wayne gretzky so great because he skated to where the puck was going they just got to have some foresight, given the factthat this string of interest rate increases has been the fastest pace that anyone can remember.

it's really impacting consumer confidence, impacting interest costs. one of the reasons that dollar general's earnings were down is because they paid 15 cents a share more so they have to look at the full picture and think about where the puck is going, not where the puck is right now. >> i'll play devil's advocate and say okay, what about chewy what about nordstrom what about amber com -- amber c com -- >> dollar tree just had bad numbers, dollar general is having bad numbers advanced auto parts, train wreck. foot locker, train wreck how many train wrecks do we have to see i can't speak specifically to

chewy or those other companies, but just because there are some outliars doesn't mean what the fed is doing is great, because it's not >> i remember we came into this thinking maybe you should buy the stock here why buy the stock here why not wait for this looming event and mistake that they're making to get more fully priced into these shares? >> very fair question. i think that trying to time the stock market never really works. when you see a stock off of recent highs and is trading at a valuation that is low at historical levels, probably a good time to buy that stock, assuming you think the fundamentals are still in tact, because look, once the fed starts lowering rates, these stocks will be off to the races. you're not going to necessarily have to wait for the fundamentals improving the performance. so i would advise against trying

to time these stocks >> anthony, great to have you on today. thank you so much. >> any time. still ahead, we have seen blockbuster beats and guy dance from nvidia. the big question is whether broadcom can do the same we'll get you the sep tohe in nt.tuin t lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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it's not just possible. it's happening. welcome back to "the exchange." the hottest thing in the market these days are the semi stocks, especially those benefits from ai we recall nvidia's huge beat last week, and the higher guidance helped them cross $1 trillion in market cap similar with marvell, surging 32%, and also forecasting a big uptick in ai revenue over the next three years so now it's broadcom's term, rallying in sympathy peers last week. but is the far now too high? where is the bar, diedra >> it is so high, kelly. we can't even see it that's what broadcom is walking into today let me just tell you how high that bar is.

look at the stock action year-to-date and also over the last month one wall street firm calls its surge parabolic, because it's just investors wanting to jump on this ai hype circle can it deliver that's a good question, because this is a compelling ai name, but it's not as obvious a play as an nvidia, but then again, nobody comes close to nvidia, which makes the gpus that are so popular. what broadcom has going for it is it partners with the tech companies making their own ai chips. so maybe, kelly, you want to call broadcom aied eed a -- adjacent there was an interesting concept this morning of an ai tourist investor they think they're getting something that is sort of an ai pure play, but when you look into broadcom's financials, it gets a lot of revenue from some of those slower growth end markets like networking as well as software and storage.

so how is it going to play with those investors that think they're getting more of a pure play but may not and may have to wait longer for that ai shift to become more obvious. >> that's a great point. maybe salesforce sin detective of the fact that just because you mentioned ai doesn't mean your stock will benefit. i'm not saying broadcom doesn't have a legitimate business there, but do investors want to hear that? >> that's exactly what nvidia did, right it said that this shift isn't just happening in the future, it's happening right now, and they're going to be booking the dollar, dollars and cents that show it's happening right now. that is a high bar for anyone else to achieve except nvidia. we talked about this before, but the chipmakers are at the first phase of this generative ai shift. so over the coming weeks and months, we'll find out who is there and who isn't, and

earnings gives us a good view. even though there was some cold water thrown on marvell, it's anticipating those gains on the back of this ai shift, but it's not quite there yet in the same way that nvidia is you can look at other aspects of broadcom, though the operating margins are suburb, above 60%. that's reason to buy. of broadc. 60%. that's reason to buy we go back to that area of tourist investors, buying it just for a.i. or are they interested in the end markets that are also doing well >> absolutely. thank you. still head, tomorrow's big jobs report could be the next big market's event stay with us i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.

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welcome back to the exchange u.s. labor market showing some resilience this may. private payrolls up by 178,000, well above expectations ac

according to adp this morning. they noted the job gains were fragmented meantime the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits or jobless claims ticked up slightly last week, but still below estimates. continuing claims up as well, it may be taking people longer to find their next job. let's bring in evan stone of recruiter.com. >> i got a glimpse here and there's no kind of sudden deceleration or acceleration, we're still kind of range bound. >> i would agree with adp's numbers and what the economists are saying recruiter sentiment ticked down to 3.3% last month we also saw that the salaries only reported by he 2% of the recruiters.

that was really in the 40,000 to $80,000 salary band. the other thing that was really interesting a is that in-person roles on the screen over took hybrid and remote. in-person, hospitality, leisure is up again. the other thing that's really interesting, when it came to candidates' sentiment, it also ticket down and candidates as reported by the recruiter's, their priority was compensation. they're leaving a job to make more money and they're taking a job to make more money, if the salaries aren't increasing enough they're not going to take that last month's numbers, you saw quickrates click down >> so is it significant moderation in compensation, obviously that's going to be under close scrutiny by the fed? >> i don't think it's significant. 42% of the recruiters reported

salary increases, but the increases were in that 40,000 to 80,000 band. i think it's the hospitality, the travel, the healthcare roles that we're seeing as opposed to the business services and i.t. roles. that are seeing the tick downward >> where are we today, are we back to quote/unquote normal, worse or slower than normal? >> yeah, so, first off, quickrates are down from last month. still 8% higher than they were pre-pandemic 3.8 million people quit their job in april this is very large number of movement it's not the great resignation, or the great reshuffling i think it's being more controlled in the decisions that people are making. i know -- or there could be a recession coming, i need to make

more money i'm going to be careful about moving a job, i'm not going to be quitting as fast. hiring is also happening it's happening a little bit faster than before that would really bode well for industries where they're in at 40,000 to $80,000 range. if the esentiment is down on the recruiters not as exciting >> i thought, me call healthcare always in demand decline in travel and tourism. >> every now and then there's little bit of a blip when the report comes out, see, we called it always interesting. >> evan, thanks for your time. we appreciate >> it thanks. evan sohn. tomorrow we'll get that jobs report thanks for joining us here on

the exchange up next, on "power lunch," econ/recon, dollar general isn't the only one showing signs of a slowdown tyler's getting ready. i'll see you on the other side of this break.

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