eed... yup. in real time... check. ...to make quick decisions? check. aaaand check. that's the solution ibm and a global bank created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. good thursday afternoon to you, everybody welcome to "power lunch. we got some huge economic headlines out today. adp data above expectations. manufacturing activity contracting a bit and a big jobs report on deck for tomorrow. all while fed officials indicate a rate skip could be in the cards a couple of weeks from now. we want to perform a little econ/recon, to get a better sense of what the economy is

doing. >> but before we dive in there, let's get a quick check on the markets. pretty sizable swing today about 200 points near session highs the nasdaq up 1.3% to back over 13,000 now we begin our econ recon with retail macy's and dollar general flashing points. dollar general is down 18% walmart also in play, hosting its shareholder meeting. weighing in on the consumer. we're cover these stories. melissa, good to see you let's start with macy's, the stock is holding up okay now, what do you see going on here? >> reporter: yeah, kelly, spoke to the ceo earlier today and he said they saw weaker sales and that continued into april and the other dynamic that they saw as, you know, as shares were down hitting their 52-week low

today, now recovering instaskwha, is that they spoke seeing a pullback among even one silver lining could be the signs of life they're seeing in may, they're seeing a bit of a pop. he doesn't know if that's going to be lasting. >> similar story from dollar general, it's having one of its worst days that i can recall company citing the maco environment. coming a week after dollar tree's weak outlook. >> reporter: dollar general also is reflecting a major pullback with its shares also hitting a 52-week low today. it missed on the top and bottom line it cut its forecast for the full year, it's seen weaker sales than expected and less discretionary spending

those shoppers are buying things like food and food has lower margin they pulled back quite a bit with their plans for store expansion this year. one area they're cutting growth is topshop >> well, at a walmart in arkansas, near the headquarters for the company's shareholders meeting. wal walmart, the one company holding up well in this environment. >> reporter: it's an interesting time with what we're seeing with walmart, as you mentioned, kelly, it's been an outlier. it beat expectations and it raised outlook for the year. it's seen an opportunity as consumers are more focused on value, it's actually drawing a lot of higher income consumers

to households that make over $100,000 a year. a huge boom in e-commerce, up 27% year over year for walmart u.s. and that's really striking compared to what we've seen from other retailers such as macy's seen a pullback across the board not only at stores but online. ceo of walmart has talken about food inflation and how that's pressuring consumers it's continuing to see gains in the tougher environments kelly? >> melissa, thank you very much. we appreciate the reporting there, what does the recent commentary tell us about the overall economy and the state of the consumer in particular let's bring in our retail panel.

>> welcome to both of you. brian, let me begin with you as you look down the commentary from dollar general, macy's, footlocker, you keep seeing the same kinds of phrases, weakening, fewer tailwinds, softening demand, pressured consumers. how worried should retailers be? >> i think the other word that has repeatedly come up is discre discretionary. shoppers are clearly pulling back on discretionary purchases right now as they look to recalibrate and rebalance their budgets. certainly under pressure when you look at walmart here, walmart is benefitting from a

couple of key things, first of which is clearly their position as a really strong value-based the snap benefits for consumers that are working reset in march and walmart seems to be disproportionately well with consumers that have to recalibrate what they're spending on. given the pressure the shopper is under or probably under consolidate trips to walmart >> also, i would think their market, which aims at the middle to lower income individual, those are the individuals who probably suffer the most from inflation and other ma k

macro-pressures. sandra, why are consumers recalibrating in particular to d discretionary spending they don't have extra money to spend in. >> it's all of the above we still have a hangover from the pandemic and during the pandemic, the discretionary was actually advantageous for retailers, the discretionary income that people had they were the beneficiaries. if we look at the consumer is, consumer 70% of the country still makes $100,000 and under of that 60% of that population actually has $10,000 in debt than they had pre-pandemic higher gas prices, inflation, higher food costs, and so they're being more selective they have to be more selective because they're stressed financially.

to what others have said recently as well, they're looking at tradedowns. walmart is a beneficiary of that as well. i think also we have to look at where retailers have placed their inventory and where they focused on some of the upgrades in technology and creating a better experience for the consumer as well. >> maybe promotional activity, brian, starts to pick up again not great news for profit margins but maybe it will get consumers back in stores. >> that's true you're going to see more promotional activity, if you look at 2022, retailers didn't have any products, nothing to promote, now you're going to see a much more promotional environment. very interesting impact not just on retail but on the economy in general. i always thought that the impact of promotional dynamics in

retail eco system, controlling inflation over the last 20 years than people give it credit for and maybe even more the fed. more promotional environment will trigger more competitive response in the retail ecosystem and it might bring the cpi down faster than people expected. i think there's some interesting implications not only for the shoppers but the economy at large. >> the population that makes 100,000 now have $10,000 in debt than they did at the beginning of the pandemic, where has that debt come from how have they pile it on so fast >> pbuy now, pay later, absolutely an impact people don't have the cash and

they're using that credit even to buy their groceries at this point, so it's absolutely going to be impacting debt overall >> and the other piece of that of course is with credit card payments as interest rates go down, what that does, that r raises everyone's minimum payments per month they're having to deploy more of their available cash flow to cover the higher interest rates. >> thank you very much we appreciate it coming up, we'll continue to do some recon on the economy after the break, we'll explore real estate, mortgage demands flipping plus, going head-on, meta announcing a new vr headset. we'll talk about the competitive pressures there. and as we head to break, a quick power check. nvidia up 5.63%.

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deutsche bank said an opportunity for the buyers to fill the supplies. a research analyst along with chief economist at zillow. joe, i'll start with you the home builders have been on a great run, what powers them from here. >> it's nice to be here and like you said, the report was titled the rise of the machines, maybe it's all the discussion lately of a.i this report was about how the public home builders have had a lot of success selling their business on the national and local level. even in softer markets overall, in stable and stronger markets

these companies can gain shares within the industry but also demonstrate resilience why is that nvr a couple of names you have sell ratings on. >> our framework, we're trying to think about who has the best return on inventory. why the sell rating, it values higher returns on inventory better and we expect to see better growth. starts in the last couple of quarters haven't really ramped up nvr, returns are going to drift back. >> skyler, what have mortgage

rates done to the market generally and in what parts of the country houses still appreciating at sort of above-trend rates and what areas may they be slipping back? >> mortgage rates mean a lot for the housing market right now i think we're in so many ways driven for those mortgage rates. the prices right now, i think it's really important or more intuitive to think not as mortgage rates as a buyer problem, it is, the problem is 70% of an existing seller, an existing homeowner that might sell an existing home, 70% of them are also buyers, so we've seen a dramatic pullback in the number of new listings that has returned home value appreciation almost across the country, even those kind of harder hit and more expensive western markets.

some of them have drifted back to top of the market as the fastest appreciatappreciators. affordability is still an option in the midwest, relative to other places despite high mortgage rates more than that, places like the midwest and the south that are drawing so much migration even pre-pandemic and we saw that continue throughout the pandemic and a lot of interest and pressure in those kind of areas. >> the question is, i guess, we can ask about the housing market itself, we're familiar with the dynamics right now the broader economy, do we interpret this as price pressures going up and putting pressure on inflation, should we be looking at inflation for the time being >> the crystal ball in it and looking forward. the mortgage rates have lifted

from two things. inflation continues to have general inflation and if we look at our rental numbers, you know, we're also starting to see some pressure come back up on rents, still softer on pre-pandemic so there we see still continued pressure on inflation and i don't know that the market is wildly confident or rather the fed is wildly confident that inflation will come down very quickly here, so i think expecting, yes, continued upward pressure on mortgage rates maybe not up to 7% we did see in the last couple of days it did come down that might have been a bit of, you know, risk from the debt ceiling as well. that might have a little bit of a room to come back down, still a bit, i wouldn't expect a lot of relief, we still have to get to the other side of our inflation challenge and i think

what we've learned over the past couple of weeks is that recovery's being pushed out. >> guys, got to leave it there thank you both we really appreciate it. coming up, we'll continue our econ recon theme today with a look at restaurants. this season is usually a big boost to industry, but a bit of a sldoowwn we'll talk to the famed chef wolfgang puck. "power lunch" will be right back

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welcome back tons of econ data out today. how are bond traders reacting? let's ask rick santelli. >> kelly, it was another session of a one-two pop in treasury complex, the first pop was 2-year note yields around at 2:00 eastern you can see that pop 278,000 for our may read on adp jobs doesn't include government hiring but much better than expected. about 40 minutes later we see a drop and the drop was started by weak pmis.

now, when we consider that tomorrow wages are going to be one of the key components. buddies have been sending charts of year over year of hourly earnings so we want to pay particularly close attention to this mark on technicals, here's 10-year note yields, the high in september. the traders have really been doing well, they have over 20 basis points on that trade already and they'll be looking potentially to add to positions that profit from dropping yields that's the mode they seem to be in tyler, back to you. let's get a check on oil with pippa. >> they're bouncing back, the market really is on tenter looks

here ahead of opec meeting there were a couple of notable calls. upgraded shares of chevron while downgrading exxon and phillips 66 upgraded. we're seeing the biggest gains in another area of the energy ecosystem, that's uranium stocks they're outperforming today. the senate environment and public works committee yesterday passed a bill that would put restrictions on uranium imports from russia and china. it's failed to get any widespread support it encourages utilities to begin self-sanctioning

>> it makes sense because all of along why are we sanctioning russia's energy, why are we still using that fuel for our nuclear, you could say because we have to but it's not a great position to be in. >> exactly this is a risk if you're using a lot of, you know, russian y uranium and they control about 40% of the global uranium market the european union hasn't targeted that, because they can't at the moment. but as the war continues, you know it's kind of the next thing you can look to and it's really a risk for utilities let's get a cnbc news update three residents of six-story apartment building in davenport, iowa apartment building remain missing. struck chul engineer report issued just days before it

happened indicated a wall of the structure was at imminent risk of crumbling however, officials didn't order residents to lead. the families of two transgender teens in iowa filed a lawsuit to block that state's law gebanning gender-affirming care for minors. they also claim little ignored testimony that the ban will harm teen. teen birthrates reached another record low last year they fell another 3% in 2022, this is the smaller annual decline than previous recent years but experts think that seems to indicate that the u.s. may be reaching plateau thanks to years of progress in talking to teens about that.

kelly, overall, birthrates continue to be low although women in their 30s saw a little bit of an uptick >> ahead on "power lunch," one key name pucking that trend is prologis, up 9% this year. we'll check in with the ceo. our econ recon continues after the break. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ )

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welcome back lots of concern over the rent space. industrial rates, prologis, with over $1 billion in market cap is up a percent this year reit as e con workers, prologis is banking on limited new warehouse development, joining us on the 40th anniversary of the founding of the company is

the ceo. great to have you here welcome. >> nice to be here with you. thank you. >> an incredible, we just have to take a step back here and acknowledge what an incredible company you built and to have weathered covid and the rest of it, maybe you can help explain to us what's going on with the economy now. what's your assessment >> well, fundamentally i go to unemployment it's hovering in the mid to high 3s that's unprecedented that level of economy drives consumption which ultimately drives our business, so the freight recession is real, was real, particularly in the context of how yeuphoric the market had been pricing is definitely lower.

but warehouses are full and the construction that's coming online is not enough to keep up with demand particularly as we go into next year and construction slows down. we expect a very tight market for our product. >> who are your biggest customers and what are they telling you about their businesses >> yeah, we have a very diversified customer list, our top 25 customers account for about under 20% of our income the largest one is amazon at about 5% and after that it's home depot at just under 2% so it's a very diversified customer picture they're all at different places. amazon is doing better than it was four, five months ago. home depot's business as they reported recently is a little bit softer but remember, they're trying to build out their e con

distribution channels. and they started many of them from zero. only a couple of years ago so that continues to be a big driver of demand for our products some of them are very mature in that buildup like amazon >> i'm curious, as we talk about the risk to the picture here, as you look at the summer months do you see a big slowdown coming? you're trying to be a little bit conservative about that, what does that look like? compare this to other cycles you've been through? you were through the dot.com bubble. >> first of all, we never went into a downturn, being 98% occupied this level of occupancy in logistics real estate is unprecedented. rental growth last year was about 30%.

this year we think it's going to be about 10% we have almost 70% market to market we got quite a bit of a cushion in terms of capturing those higher rents so we feel really good about the business as strong as it was in 2021 or 2022 probably not stronger than any other period in my career absolutely >> we were just talking about nuclear, with your real estate, you have 2.7 trillion in goods flowing through your warehouses, and some panels to talk about, tell us more about this, are you taking advantage of inflation act tax credits? >> sure, we've been in the solar business for over a decade and currently in the u.s. we produce over 400 megawatts of

power from our roofs that places as the number two producer of solar power. roof street solar power in the country. we're going to be number one before the end of the year i think the potential is 7 or 8 gig watts by 2027. you mentioned nuclear, we're actually looking at some of these micro nuclear technologies it's too early to tell whether we'll take advantage of that, but increasingly i think we'll find ourselves in the energy and renewable energy business and in the decarbonize energy business, it's a really great business opportunity. we're doing it because it's good business and frankly we're doing it a long time before the i.r.a. and this will just supercharge our level of activity.

>> very interesting. >> fascinate zblg prologis nevertheless, becoming increasely important >> we're in the business of business if we can do anything that is good for our customers, makes them stickier, makes them appreciate our product over other products, because it's decarbonize or it offersefficiee things are good for the bottom line we think it as a huge business opportunity going forward. >> thanks for joining us we really appreciate it. >> thank you all right, coming up, meta-versus. unveiling a new vr headset and upstaging apple's vr

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welcome back, everybody. meta trying to steal a little bit of apple's headset thunder

months before it will actually ship meta unveiling its quest 3 vr headset today just days before apple is set to unveil its competing product. shares of both meta and apple were both up today here to discuss our own julia boorstein and steve. talk to us about meta. >> tyler, we're not expecting the apple headset to be available for a few more months either even though they're going to announce it on monday very obvious what's going on here, zuckerbuerg trying to get ahead of apple meta is the market leader. it's niche market and a very

small market apple is going to have to kind of make its case on monday saying we figured out why this is a thing basically and come up with a compelling use case that people like meta haven't had a chance to do yet. >> julia, the competing stock charts of apple and meta, they're not close. apple is up nearly 40% year to date meta has nearly doubled. >> what meta has been doing is selling these headsets ultimately for the most part at a loss they want to gain market share and they want to create a vibrant ecosystem. yes, it's for gamers, it's not just for gamers. they're hoping for this new headset will help it hit this next level of consumer adoption.

maybe going after a similar market but that's why today they unveiled a lot of games, they just had this presentation unveiling the new lineup of games and the quest 3 is going to be compatible with all the games from the quest 2 the question here is whether apple is playing the same game as meta is meta wants to control its ecosystem because for so long it's been at the whim of what apple does in its apps store i think this idea that we're going to see a new headset war, a new phase in this headset war in the fall is probably pretty likely apple and meta have long time been rivals. >> they hope that that headsets

will appeal to more than just gamers i can't imagine that apple envisions this headset to be the kind of blockbuster product that we're accustomed of seeing from apple, the apple watch the apple phone or the ipad even. >> yeah, i'll point on that last point that you made, the expectations forthis product, he's very plugged into the supply chain and said apple isn't producing enough to ship maybe more than 200,000 or 300,000. apple sells more than 200 million iphones every year again as far as use cases beyond gaming we'll have to see what apple has to offer it will focus a lot on entertainment, on communication, it sounds like they have a new

version of facetime that works on your face this time and also things like using your mac within this environment on your face, meta, their headset does something similar. you can mirror the screen with your computer. i tried it i'm not sure it's a compelling case >> all right, thanks very much julia, steve, appreciate it. >> thank you nearly a third of consumers say they plan to dine out less according to a new survey as inflation persists wolfgang puck, when ""power lunch"" returns. (dr. aaron king) if you have diabetes, getting on dexcom is the single most important thing you can do. it eliminates painful finger sticks,

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welcome back to "power lunch. this summer usually a boost for restaurants but there are concerns of a slowdown as consumers slow their spending according to a recent survey, nearly a third of americans plan to dine out less over the next month. restaurant booking demand is slowing in states like new york and california let's get some more insight on all of this from wolfgang puck

we're so glad to have you back with us. i want to start by asking you about inflation, where is it biting hardest and how is it affecting how you have to price your meals >> well, you know, inflation is here, it's reality, everything has gone up over the last year since the pandemic ended you know, we have less workers, people aren't going back to work yet, food prices have gone up, liquor prices have gone up, meat prices have gone up, so we really have to be smart and engineer our menu so that way people still a value when they come to our restaurants. at the end of the day, at the upscale restaurants we're not selling food we're selling an experience you don't get that eating at home making your own pass to or grilling your steak or whatever.

a big difference i really believe we're going to get a lot of people from europe coming to california and new york and people will eat out >> it's hard -- i know it's a hard question to answer because it's different in different cities but the average ticket, what was it three years ago and what is it today for a person dining at one of your establishments >> well, i think, the ticket hasn't gone up as much when i look at our steak restaurant, meat prices have gone up 20% at least we did not raise 20%. we just engineered the menu a little smaller, things like that, maybe to make a great meat

get a better price and customers can get the value because we want people to feel good once they eat in our restaurant because it's, wow the food, the service is great but also we made them feel good at the end and i think that's what with at our restaurants and they leave and say we want to come back. yes, it's expensive. we are not cheap unless you go to our restaurants at the airports you know you'll get the pizza or caesar salad for a reasonable price. in the upscale dining, it's the most difficult, the most labor intensive generally the most expensive locations. so you have all the top lines. >> let's talk about business in general and how bookings are going. are you seeing a strong demand is it leveling off a little bit? what >> well, i think in a lot of our restaurants people don't book

more than two weeks, three weeks ahead. i don't know yet in summer, in july, august how it will affect us we have to look a little bit at the hotels, how they are booking. we get a lot of foreigners coming to new york and los angeles. if the hotels are busy, people have to go out for example, las vegas will have one of the best summers next to last year probably and, you know, the bookings seem solid and people go to our restaurants. if it's spago or any of the places, hotels seem to be booking up really well and it's really busy. spago is known all over the world. we have probably people that want to come to spago when they come to l.a. >> wolfgang, always good to see

you. thank you for your insight. >> thank you bon appetit. still to come, why your summer barbecue is about to get more expensive. trouble brewing for starbucks with workers unions. that and more when "power lunch" returns. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way

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you need to know about senator majority leader chuck schumer is attempting to fast track the debt ceiling bill today. schumer saying the senate will remain in session until it sends a bill to president biden's desk adding time is a luxury lawmakers don't have the fiscal responsibility act negotiated by president biden and speaker kevin mccarthy was voted through the house with bipartisan support if passed, it raises the limit for two years and caps federal spending. >> one of the stumble blocks is senator tim kaine of virginia objection to finishing of a pipeline that senator manchin has been a booster of. it goes through virginia, begins in west virginia and carries through virginia and it had been something that i gather senator tim kaine opposed for a long

time also holding out, senator lee of utah and rand paul of kentucky they're going to let them propose amendments under the assumption that all the amendments will fail and the bill will move through cleanly. >> they need 60. also, everyone feels like this is the only legislation that gets done this year. there's an effort to get things in it they desperately need. >> yeah. it went through with more democrats voting for it in the house than republicans voting for it in the house, but it was bipartisan, about 149 republicans as i recall. next up, where's the beef? ranchers are shrinking cattle herds. production is expected to drop by more than 2 billion pounds. experts warn that could push prices for steaks and burgers to

record highs just as barbecue season kicks off wolfgang puck mentioned some of the prime cuts of beef are costing so much more >> i went to our local grocery a week ago my wife with going to see taylor swift. i was going to treat myself. i get a .9 pound rib eye and it cost me $29. i should have gone to wolfgang's. >> we would have happily come over for a bite of that. it was good, but $29 a pound >> i wonder if more of this is in the rearview mirror it goes to the point about how consumers are trading down from beef to pork. >> last night it was taco night. had a lot of beans in that >> all the food offers

unionization efforts are under way at starbuck's. they're hitting a speed bucs guess who's in the house kate rodgers is in the house >> workers filed the petition to decertify the junion. the decertification has gone away some of the timing for filing was off. at the root is there's still not a contract in place for the union and starbuck's. >> the unions at individual locations that voted to unionize >> yes they voted at individual stores.

howard shchultz was on capitol hill talking about this. the two parties have to bargain in good faith. some of the union stores don't have access to some of the newer benefits put in place. that could be behind the decertification effort >> what is great about this movement is that there always seems to be ten workers stepping in for every worker that's gotten tired or gone on to fight some other fight. >> for its part starbucks is saying at every store where our partners are choosing to pursue representation, we want their voices home. we want this to go forward the big takeaway the union movement is still alive and well people are still looking to

unionize, but starbucks started it all. >> they're kind of playing hard ball. >> for sure. >> kate, great to see you. nice to have you back. >> did your wife like the taylor swift concert? >> she had a good time it was three and a half hours. thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner this make or break hour begins with a rally to start the new month. we're at the highs of the day. we have a big interview in moments. wharton professor jeremy siegel is here. let's look at your score card dow getting a nice boost today from united health and chevron and caterpillar and american express. tech an interesting story. some of those ai names revivin