soone else, speak up. don't let a cry for help go by. [music playing] ♪ on this vote, the yea is 63. the bill is passed. >> the senate passes the debt ceiling bill sending it to the president's desk and averting the first ever default >> we saved from default although some wanted default wanted to lead us to default we may be tired, but we did it

european equities open higher tracking gains as nikkei closes at a 32-year high while u.s. futures push into the green. ukraine president volodymyr zelenskyy ramps up the pressure on nato over the key bid to join the alliance while rishi sunak makes his support clear. >> ukraine's rightful place is in nato. we are also talking to ukraine about right now is make sure they have the support they need for counter offensive. crude prices gain, but track to the worst week since early may ahead of the weekend closely watched opec plus meeting. good morning welcome to "street signs." if you caught the end of "squawk box" you note today is a sad

day. it was geoff cutmore's last day after an incredible run of 25 years. geoff did not want to leave with fanfare or fuss. we could not let him go without saying thank you thank you, geoff you have been a role model and master class in journalism. we will miss your sense of humor. good luck on your next chapter to the news. the u.s. senate approved the debt ceiling deal sending it to the president's desk to be signed into law. the fiscal responsibility act was passed 63-36 a day after clearing the house preventing the first default in u.s. history. senate majority leader chuck schumer said it helped prevent disaster. >> democrats are feeling good tonight. we satisfied the country from

def default although there were some who wanted default and lead us to default we may be tired, but we did it we are very happy. default was the giant sword hanging over america's head. because of the good work of president biden as well as democrats in the house and democrats in the senate, we are not defaulting >> president biden said he would sign the bill into law as soon as possible and address the nation this evening. the leader said this represents a big win for america and an protects the core pillars of the agenda as well as health and social programs. you can imagine the debt ceiling deadline is not being breached the markets are now reacting positively you see a bounce in stocks today. in europe, the stoxx 600 is up .70%. coming off the two-month low we saw early they are week.

sentiment is more positive for u.s. markets overnight as well we have u.s. markets now closing at a nine-month high nikkei overnight closing at a 32-year high all of this playing a role in the stoxx 600. up .70%. for the week as a whole, a lot of the indices are dragging because of the concern of the debt ceiling and potential for negotiations not going the right way way. every index is trading up in positive territory broad based gains among periphery and core countries we are keeping the close eye on the macro inflation data eurozone headline inflation surprising to the down side. the data hasn't been strong on the gdp side, but inflation is moving in the right direction and markets are taking that well we are taking a bounce in the

ftse 100 up .70% in terms of sectors, this is the breakdown. nice bounce in real estate up 3% vinovia is one of the stocks at the top of the dax basic resources with the likes of commodities and oil and gas ahead of the opec plus meeting this sunday. on the flip side, health care is slightly in the red. down .10%. you see everything is trading quite solidly. in terms of u.s. futures, i mentioned sentiment is positive heading into the u.s. session later today. you can see that all of the three majors are opening up in green. it is a big day in the data. we can go back to data watching because we have nfps to watch. there will be moderation in terms of job growth and still in positive territory that is a indicator that the fed is determining action at the

next meeting let's look at the dollar here you can see not a lot of movement trading sideways for the pound and euro of a pullback with the dollar/yen still below 140 which is where we were yesterday. to discuss this is our guest from rbc great to chat with you, elsa how much of that can we expect to be taken out? >> not a huge amount to begin with because people were unclear. do you buy the dollar because it trades as a haven or sell the dollar with the potential of def default? a lot of investigatorors expecte deal to go through, but they thought a wake-up call would be

given to congress to get it done the fact we never had the volatility >> it is back to watching. there was talk the last couple sessions from various fed speakers that a pause would not necessarily mean a stop in the hiking cycle as an analyst, what does it mean for the trajectory of the dollar if the fed decides to pause and continue with the hiking cycle >> it is interesting, right? we know the fed doesn't like to surprise if felt we had a concerted effort from a number of officials this week to tamp down expectations of june hike before the blackout period. that, in itself, makes us suspect the nfp numbers were less of a blockbuster to put june on the table. going forward to the rate hike cycle, some would build ifn a

july hike. for a dollar perspective, that is not good. >> we have been talking about the pullback in the first couple months are people positioned for a weaker dollar? >> i don't think positioning is as crowded as a few weeks ago. certainly people have been called out by the strength of the dollar do dollar/yen is one where everybody thought would go down. we are now sitting shy of the year-end target of 140 >> i remember you came on the show a couple months ago and warned that dollar/yen was a crowded position you nailed that one. i have to give you credit. where do you think dollar/yen goes from here >> we are in no-man's land we are not pricing in 100 bps. we are do have signs of data slowing. i think people are reluctant to

take big positions with less activity and lower volume and people are looking at carry trades. >> on the dollar/yen, you said we are at year-end target. you believe we stay around the level of 140 >> we heard the bank of japan and ministry of finance with the meeting the other day and begin to make noise with weakness in the yen. it means they like to slow the pace of decline. i think we can see a bit further top side here. the bulk of the moves in dollar/yen is done. >> one theme that is coming up is the bigger trend of the dollar- dollar-ization with the bilateral deals with china and some latin america countries going down the same route. is that a bigger theme that

comes up in cusdiscussions? >> with the break , it is quickl how people forget. it is very difficult to trade on any kind of investable whohoriz. >> speaking of china, when you look at it from the macro perspective the last couple weeks, it feels as some euphoria is subsiding what knock-on effect is that having on the markets? >> you hit the nail on the head. we started with the yen and everybody was built up with the china reopening story and the pmi had a lot of people worried about a deeper slowdown. pmi is pulling back a little bit and now we are in the no-man's land from the currency, we see pullback in the euro and aussie. if you put it all together,

china at the moment is trending up through seven and it is more dollar strength storstory. >> what is the opinion on the opec plus meeting? another big theme for markets is the commodities in the second half of the year people thought we would have a bullish play and that is not the case. >> i think the interesting thing at the moment is the domestic stories with the australian fair wage commission with the increase in the minimum wage now that is looking for more hikes from the rba that could support the australian do thllar >> i'll bring you back to europe we have been watching the inflation numbers coming in this week they have been surprising to down side. that is actually good for the european economy people are beginning to price out some of the bullishness or

hawkishness they priced in to the rate curve do you have a view >> i think at the moment, we are sitting in the middle of what i thought would be the range for the year 105 or 110 or up to 111. i'm not in the camp that thinks euro/dollar is going higher from year year we were priced in the earlier segment with the gas prices at 18-month low that optimism has been baked in. i see room for down side cyclical. >> what is the top >> what we like at the moment is looking for carry in less obvious areas. we like new zealand dollar you are not positioning swings like the u.s. dollar we still like relative trades with good value with long chile

and short colombia >> i think i need to ask about the turkish lira it has fallen to a new low against the u.s. dollar. do you have a view on how things are headed from here and are people putting on lira trades? >> they are trying, but it is tricky although the spot is moving, but you need it to move a long way to make gains in total returns we have seen investors put position on of i think one thing that caught people's attention is reserves were in the net negative territory again. that is not sustainable. there is a widespread expectation we go higher from here. >> it is the case. it keeps going from weakness to weakness elsa, thank you for joining us wonderful to have you on "street signs. now the war in ukraine was

the main focus at the european political community meeting in moldova attended by volodymyr zelenskyy. uk prime minister rishi sunak spoke with cnbc and said ukraine's rightful place is in nato siylvia joins us with more thank you for the comments the last couple days tell us more what the uk prime minister had to say. >> reporter: naturally, i brought up the issue of the war in ukraine because that dominated the conversation here in moldova, joumanna first, we didn't know if the ukrainian president would join the heads of state here for the summit he showed up and he was actually the first head of state to arrive for the meeting he had a very clear message. he asked for the support and he asked for clear progress to eu membership and nato membership

hours before his arrival, we heard from the nato chief and french president making comments that there needs to be a clear pact for ukraine to join the alliance the french president said that plan should be presented next month when the leaders of nato gather for the summit as well. when i asked the question of the timeline to the british prime minister, rishi sunak preferred not to give a precise date for when this plan might be announced. he preferred to emphasize for the short-term what matters for uk is providing further aid, whether it is military or financial support to ukraine take a look. >> i agree with the nato secretary-general. ukraine's rightful place is in nato what we are also talking to ukraine about right now is making sure they have all of the support they need for a successful counter offensive one thing we have done in the uk

is provide longer range weapons to ukraine and battle tanks. we want to make sure we put in place security arrangements for ukraine for the long term so we acc send a very strong signal to vladimir putin that we are not going anywhere we are here to stay and we will continue backing ukraine, not just now, but years in the future he needs to know that. we will send that signal of support. >> reporter: all eyes are on the nato summit due to take place next month i had the chance to speak to the prime minister about the upcoming trip to the united states next week, rishi sunak will be in washington, d.c this will be the first official visit to the u.s. as well. i asked him what can we expect from this meeting. take a look. >> uk and u.s. have a very strong partnership obviously close on matters like security and defense and

particular in supporting ukraine. we have a close economic partnership over 2.5 million people working in each others companies and direct foreign investment of trade happening of the tjobs and growth for both o our countries. we will continue to discuss how we move forward. >> reporter: you heard one of the aims for the prime minister is to enhance economic cooperation with the u.s we know, however, the united kingdom has no plans to push for a trade deal with the u.s. we also know that politically speaking, that is a sensitive topic for the united states as well let's see, joumanna, what sectors the prime minister will be looking to focus when he speaks with the united states president next week. >> sylvia, i wanted to get back

to the european political community. the fact it is only the second one that has ever been held. you talked about the significance of it held in moldova and the president that president volodymyr zelenskyy has been there and we listened to his comments yesterday. actually on "street signs. of course, there was talk of standing in solidarity with ukraine. i wonder if any tangible steps have been taken in terms of further saassistance, military economic, that has come out of the meeting. >> reporter: we did not get any big announcement with further support for ukraine, joumanna. wes we were not expecting that, really, because this is an informal summit. this is a summit where they have the opportunity to speak to one

another in an informal basis that concontext, we saw the president of ukraine with a lot of meetings. he had the highest number of bilaterals here in moldova he was making his case for support. in the short-term, we did not get a big announcement for ukraine, but perhaps we will hear that in the coming days and weeks and definitely the president was clear in what he needs in the short and medium term that lie was membership of nato at some point. the president is aware this is not something that will happen in the short-term, but he said this is very important to boost the moral of the ukrainian troops on the ground they have been fighting a war for more than a year now let's see what will happen in the coming weeks particularly at the summit next month. this was more of the informal

conversation that the president had with the leaders here. let's not forget we had almost 50 heads of state here from all over europe. that was an important opportunity for volodymyr zelenskyy. >> quite the captive audience. sylvia, thank you. for more from sylvia, check out cnbc.com. coming up on "street signs," downward dog means upward chairs lululemons shares are surging. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free

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welcome back to "street signs. u.s. weekly jobless claims rose to 200,000 claims rose to 1.75 million. meanwhile, private employers hired more workers last month suggested continued tightness in the labor market and potential sign the fed could seek to keep interest rates high. today, there is important data

to watch the economy is expected to add 190,000 jobs in may which was down from april. the unemployment rate is ticking up from the lowest level since 1969 rising 10 basis points it 3.5% hourly earnings are watched as the barometer for inflation and rising 0.3% which is down from the .50% in april which was the biggest gain in a year the fed is keeping a close eye on the number actually turns out to be today. it will determine what they do at the next meeting. in corporate news, microsoft agreed to potentially spend billions across cloud computing from core weave. it has views of a.i. which is in high demand. microsoft declined to comment.

you can find more on the story on cnbc.com. softbank shares tried high near japan as the a.i. chip frenzy pushes tech and a.i. techestech stocks higher. it has seen an increase of 17% this week. softbank will design the arm unit later this year. and deal shares were lower in trade after the first quarter revenue fell 20% on the year to $20.9 billion. earnings per share came in at $1.31 per share. ahead of the 86 cents expected the recovery is a long way off and forecast weaker revenue as well and broadcom shares sank in extended trade after better than expected third quarter revenue

the revenue guidance of $8.5 billion was the slowest in years after sales jumped 8%. last month, nvidia forecast q2 revenue more than 50% above expectations this is interesting. shares in lululemon surging in extended trade after the company posted a beat on revenue for the first quarter. sales rose 24% with revenue in china rising 79% it tells you some consumption spend is coming through from china. this is the picture of nike shares in pre-market and reacting well to the positive news that is coming from lululemon. nike opening up 2.8% let's look at others puma and adidas and others

opening in positive territory as well positive signals coming out of lululemon this morning both opening up 4% our u.s. colleagues will speak with ceo calvin mcdonald at 1600 cet. and dollar general shares plunged after they missed the top and bottom lines customers are reducing spending among the tough economic conditions and announcing a cut in store openings. coming up on "street signs," opec plus is meeting this weekend, but will it cut the supply glut? we will discuss it after the break. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free

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>> we saved the country from the scourge of default although there were some on the other side who wanted default and lead us to default. we may be a little tired, but we did it so we're very, very happy. european equities higher while u.s. futures push into the green. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy ramps up the pressure on nato to join the alliance while rishi sunak makes his support clear. >> ukraine's rightful place is in nato. what we are also talking to ukraine about is make sure they have the support they need for the successful counter offensive. crude prices gain, but track to the worst week since early may ahead of the weekend's closely watch opec plus meeting.

welcome back to the show a quick check on european markets. we are trading in the green. every index is trading in positive territory ftse 100 up .60% rebound in commodities today which are charging back. cac 40 in france up 1% a bit of a bounce in luxury. dax up .80%. all this on the back of the positive sentiment from the u.s. with the debt ceiling now raised until the 1st of january 2025. president biden has to sign it into law most of the legislative hurdles are now behind us in the rearv-view mirror if you are watching the macro data, the inflation continues to surprise to the down side. we are keeping an eye on that of

the board. you can see the currency board with the euro trading a bit higher against the u.s. dollar the pound is above 125 do dollar/yen has pulled back as for u.s. futures, ahead of the all important non-farm payroll print today. the three majors are opening in positive territory continuation of yesterday's positive moves as well note that u.s. markets have closed at a nine-month high bouncing off some of the lows we had earlier in the week. good news if you are along those markets. opec and al llies are unlikl to meet with the prices expected

to rise this weekend oil producers previously agreed cuts until the end of the year at the may meeting wti is trading at $$70. dan murphy joins us. dan, you never know what to expect with the meetings it is interesting to see this through the lens of the saudi oil minister he was warning of the short sellers. could this be a harbinger of what to expect this sunday >> reporter: joumanna, you are right. some analysts suggested he was jaw boning for laying the ground work for the cut to come the possibility of another production cut from opec plus is slim it cannot be priced out as we head into the important meeting

in vienna. after the opec surprise barrel cut in april, it is unlikely we see another round of cuts this weekend as oil prices are filtering down to $70 a barrel u.s. the next outcome is probably a hawkish hold with opec plus look to play out for the year and against the back drop you were talking about which is weaker chinese demand and recession fears in the united states robust russian suppliers which is a point of contention in the meeting. coming into this, russian officials said a change in policy is unlikely judgment is reserved until they speak with other ministers on the ground in vienna what we have seen over last few months is a sell down in prices since the april cut was made at the same time, physical market balances are not

necessarily flashing warning signs yet and prices are still near where most economies are and not low enough to warrant another cut for now. as you say, joumanna, the saudi minister is a master of surprise and anything can happen at this point. perhaps he laid the ground work for a cut. perhaps we see opec coming out of the meeting staying status quo and maintaining production as it is as looking to assess the cut from april for the rest of the year. back to you. >> i'm looking forward to the coverage on monday and cnbc is one of the few journalists that will attend the opec plus conference we look forward to what you have to say on monday let's get out to andrew who is our guest here let me ask you if you expect a surprise cut announcement from opec plus this sunday?

>> if you look at this in terms of the last year, average crude prices have dropped by 21% you know, we are now down in the $70 range. that is very uncomfortable for all opec producers to the just saudi arabia and uae of the group it is the smat smaller producer feeling the pressure profoundly in their economies they are all looking at the macroeconomics picture at the moment there is a persistent word that we we hear of the word of stagflation. that is the opec and opec plus dialogue going on at the moment. what is happening with the global economies our s&p global forecast is for 2.1 million barrels a day of

demand growth and into the third quarter, we expect to see crude trending more toward the $90 barrel range that is because of seasonal factors which will be a pattern more into the month as the may data begins to be published. >> andrew, there are a lot of gems i want to pick up in what you said i want to first go back to a stat that i thought was interesting in the report. russian production is at the highest level since the invasion began. it is remarkable with all of the attempts from the west to curb oil production if anything, it is moving higher and higher how much downward pressure is that putting on the price of oil? >> it has to put a tremendous downward pressure on oil we did research at s&p global insights on the volume of dark

ship-to-ship transfers that have been happening blglobglobally there is a 225% increase in the last year. when tankers are turning off trans ponders to allow them to be tracked and opens up the window for them to obviously transfer crude and that to get lost in the system we estimate that russia is behind the bulk of this massive increase in ship-to-ship transfer transfers. you have it there. russia is putting more crude on the market and it is navigating the price cap. this complicates the situation for opec as it is trying to make quotass work for all members and price point for all producers. >> is there a bit of a rupture going on within opec plus? clearly the fact that russia is producing more should not sit

well with the rest of the members given they agreed to further supply cuts whoc who will police russia >> it is a significant gover governmental organization with economic power the most significant currently operating. that said, each nation acts in its own self interests and reserves the rights to its own policies with oil production uae is producing up to 5 million barrels a day in capacity in the next couple of years there were issues over its quota and that quota for opec. the members producing is a t thorny issue if you look back 15 years, the tension was between saudi arabia and iran and venezuela

now the tension is around the gulf producers investing heavily to produce more oil. if they can't produce it, it is a consequence of the opec agreement. that will create a lot of tension within the meeting space and how that plays out is an interesting thing over the next two years sdp >> andrew, how would you construct a bullish picture? you mentioned the risk of stagflation and the recovery from china has been patchy more so than people were hoping for where does the bullish thesis come from? >> it is two parts one is geopolitics i have written about the impact that the war in ukraine will have on markets this summer. we had a well trailed likelihood of counter offensive that ukraine will launch in that war.

if that goes badly for russia, how does it impact the agreement with opec plus and wider geopolitics in the attempt to keep their positions and you get the higher costs in europe and that story taking hold and inflation pressure coming back with that. the narrative changes. that feeds into the bullish argument not just for aoil, but all commodities. if you look at the demand forecast for this year, 1.3 million barrels a day. 1.6 million barrels a day is due to asia and growth from the markets. that is prompis primarily chinad india. what is not fully understood is the chinese economy impacted by some of the pretty bad economic

pictures in the developed world like germany, europe and u.s. at the moment china is a manufacturing base for those economies. it is a complex picture in terms of the bullish scenario. everything comes down to economics this year. >> yeah. where do you think the saudis want the price of oil to settle? >> they want the price of oil to settle at the price of the giant real estate project in the middle of saudi arabia if you look at the spending in saudi arabia on the infrastructure and diversifying their economy, these are staggering figures invested. they need a higher oil price certainly around the range of $80 a barrel to pay for that and probably much higher so if you look at things like direct investment in saudi ar arabia, it is below pre-covid

levels that is with the initiatives to attract more investment in the country. saudi needs higher oil prices. $80 or $100 is a debatable point. $70 is painful >> hence, why we get the verbals. a andrew, thank you nfor joining e on "street signs." coming up on the show, late night meeting on capitol hill an verts -- averts default we will head to washington, d.c. coming up next

welcome back strange relations with the u.s. and china are in focus in singapore after china said the u.s. declined a meeting at the summit the chinese defense minister confirmed his attendance last week andrew little said he is concerned that the lack of dialogue could heighten the

risk >> it increases and we see a greater risk of conflict we do see a greater risk of miscalculation it is very important there are channels of communication and channels of dialogue with all parties, but particularly the major powers and we continue to promote that. >> is there a risk that the quad and these competing security alliances within the i indo-pacific and joint military exercises cause an arms race effectively, that gives rise to the miscalculation that you are talking about? >> i think we are in the edge of the national security interests and what they need to do and prepare against encroachments on the initial interests. we see growth in military capability, particularly in the

region the reality is we have what we have with major competition. there is competition to have more countries supporting various countries and international forums that is the reality. i think what is important is the realm of international relations generally, there have to be forums for didialogue. it has to be country-to-country relationships as well. if this can bring forward the points of contact and dialogue to create opportunities for deescalation, then that is very important, too >> uk defense secretary ben wallace expects ukraine to make efforts against russia. >> that momentum shows no sign

of dying off we obviously see in the shadows that we have gifted to ukraine and the decoration that the offensive is in some near future date in the offing we think we have seen advancements with ukraine. i think i'm not going to predict a short-term magic bullet. i think there is a magic bullet bullet but ukraine's momentum will continue to grow i think russia is running out of stock. the reckless and illegal use of targeting to hit civilian areas is a sign of desperation i'm optimistic for the future. >> is there any peace proposal on the table that stands out as viable at this juncture? >> i think volodymyr zelenskyy has talked about the conditions of negotiations.

russia must leave sovereign ukraine. that is a legitimate request russia illegally invaded ukraine. that is recognized by the international community. five nations refused to condemn that it is important that russia understands if it wants to extract itself from not only international isolation, but what it is doing in ukraine, it needs to start the process of leaving. they need to realize they lost so many soldiers we have seen putin being critical having lost one of his best friends this is daunting on the russian system the first step is reduce forces. >> if president putin feels he is trapped in a ground war, is there a risk, as you see it,

minister, and you are privy to intelligence reports from the field and from russia as well. is there a risk he will resort to nuclear weapons >> in both the soviet and russian doctrine, what they call nuclear weapons is an option for the military battle field. what we saw and the world should recognize the importance of the statement made by india and china last year was a very clear sign post of putin that it would not be tolerated by other countries which to this extent has been luke warm on russia as support from the west. that is a clear sign the international community would not tolerate that. we don't see an increase of threat from the russians we are all aware of the doctrine i think the key here is president putin needs to know he can't win in ukraine he needs to realize he is at

risk of losing everything. turning to another top story. u.s. senate approved the bill to avoid the first ever default. we have brie jackson with us i hope this is the last time we talk about the debt ceiling for a while, brie. what happens next? >> reporter: good morning. this is something we have been talking about for some time. late last night, senators passed the bipartisan agreement to raise the debt ceiling once it is signed into law, it would put a cap on spending for the next two years it is the fiscal responsibility act. it includes cuts to non-military spending and expanding defense

spending it claws back unspent covid relief funds it provides work requirements for food stamp recipients of the american people. the measure did come with criticism. senators introduced 11 amendments all of them shot down, including an amendment that tim kaine from virginia put forward to block efforts to speed up a gas pipeline going through west virginia and virginia. neither party got everything they wanted. lawmakers say this was compromise compromise was necessary in order to get this done president biden is expected to sign that bill in the next couple days. we do expect to hear from president biden tonight. he is scheduled to deliver remarks on the debt ceiling bill later this evening >> most importantly that default

is averted brie, thank you for the coverage today and all of this week another data point we are watching is the u.s. economy expected to add 190,000 jobs this, of course, for the month of may which is sharply down from the 253,000 created in april. unemployment rate is moving up from the lowest level since 1969 rising ten points to 3.5%. average hourly earnings is closely watched as a key barometer for inflation. 0.3% which is down from .50% from april which was the biggest monthly gain in a year it will be a big one coming up as it always is. a key determination for where the u.s. central bank and what the fed decides to do at the next meeting in terms of the european markets, it is a day of green. things are beginning to slip a

little bit for the most part, all indices are reacting strongly from the data out of the u.s. overnight as well as the positive macro inflation data this week surprising to the down side. for the week as a whole, you see it is somewhat of a mixed bag. peripheries did well we talked about spain at the beginning of the year and shock spanish elections held in july anyone focused on that, keep an eye out. the dow is shy of 16,000 and the rest of the indices in the red all eyes on u.s. futures ahead of the nfp that is it for today's show. i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. ready to take your business to the next level? scale it with the commerce platform, made for entrepreneurs. shopify is specially designed to help you grow your business. with easy, customizable themes that let you build your brand.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. the senate passed the debt ceiling bill we are live in washington with reaction. stocks tracking for relief rally following late night vote. tech still tracking for the longest win streak in years. the may jobs report before the fed next policy decision a case of retail haves and have-nots. shares of mo