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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  June 2, 2023 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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assets, but nobody is interested in its stores. it's considered a broken business buy buy baby is considered the crowned jewel. >> thank you >> can't wait to see what happens with that. >> it'll be interesting. thanks for watching, everybody >> look at that. with nine seconds to spare. >> how do you like that? we'll hand it off to scott. >> scott can have it ca"closing bell" starts now. >> take it away, scott actually, scott can't have it welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott. this make or break hour begins with an assertive breakout for stox stocks after a healthy jobs reports eases wall street's two biggest worries. the s&p 500 has been rising all day. the dow up more than 700 points at the highs as well, and the s&p not far from its august, 2022 peak which would be the peak for the last 13 months or
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so in a crucial shift, the rallies also move beyond the handful of big tech favorites as small caps, energy, and cyclical stocks which of course, pack the dow are playing some catchup which brings us so our talk of the table. have the market bowls and economic optimists earned back the benefit of the doubt or is this as good as it gets for now? let's bring in cameron dawson to talk about this. >> thank you >> welcome the jobs nucmber today, certainl strong, but enough slowdown internally to make people think the soft landing is not out of the question the fed's told us that perhaps they're willing to skip with the strong skipper rate hike, and we have the tech leadership and maybe it's starting to broaden out. what's wrong with this picture >> it's encouraging that for the first day in a really long time that the rally isn't just a handful of names and a handful of tech names and to see names like caterpillar up 7%, 8% today, energy stocks up 3%,
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that's really encouraging and a sign that maybe this fear of having a very sharp slowdown in the very near term isn't happening, supported by the economic data we got today as well as the china stimulus, and i actually think that is what's behind a lot of these moves in the cyclical names because if we see more economic support out of china, good for commodities, good for these value names that have really beaten up and left for dead all year long. >> they have there's a way of describing what's been going on this year as taking the main complaint it's been an incredible narrow rally just as the handful of growth stocks and that's the market's way of trying to price some slowdown. other sectors have not done a lot, therefore expectations are low, and if the economy's firmer, they can start to take up some of the slack. >> yeah. i mean, look at that equal weight index trading at 15.5 times earnings that's not pricing in any aggressive, however, if you look
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a at the growth or technology sector, you're trading in 26, 27 times earnings and you're back to territory that we've only seen those valuations when the fed is actively easing, and so there is a point that some of these technology stocks in addition to ai optimism, they have been pricing in a weaker economic environment and easier fed policy i think what's interesting about the fed's commentary, even this backing off of a hike in june is that even the most dovish members are not talking about cuts, and so it will be interesting when we get into the june meeting how they parse that gap between what the bond market is saying that they will do, and what they're saying they will actually do. >> right presumel presumably, they're going to have to update their economic outlook to account for the fact the economy has not slowed down as much as they might have though thought, what it means for their target rate for the fed, and there's some relief in that. how would you be looking to
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either participate in what's go going on or use it to get more defensive or how to navigate it? >> we have been buying equal weight and value we have been focusing on those parts of the market instead of chasing the growth rally if you look at growth and the nasdaq, it is overbought in a short term momentum doesn't mean that the trend upward is over it just means that you might have a little bit of a digestion period instead of chasing that today, we have been adding capital into the equal weight and value indices and purchasing names with those areas with a lot more value discipline. >> i guess the question is what's the next -- we seem to be hopscotching from one thing we're worried about to the next, right? >> right >> we're either headed right for a recession or the numbers were too hot in january the fed's going to have to get to 6%, and then it was debt ceiling and maybe an earnings collapse a lot of them we've managed to weave around, and then of course, now we have folks saying, well, now that we have a
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debt ceiling, there's going to be a big, huge rush of treasury issues and what's that going to do to yield? what do you think is the next thing to challenge this market >> that is exactly that last point which is that we have seen liquidity be a big beneficiary for stock this is year because of the drying down of the general account. dan clifton calls it bigger bazooka. it's offset all of qt this year, this spending by the treasury, w and when that reverses, it tail winds this market. it explains why growth is so high for growth and tech stocks. they benefit the most. as you pull that away, you see a cash balance that could be an important head wind and a source of rotation from growth to value. >> that would make some sense, although i still look at the massive quantities going into money market funds most of that cash is being
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parked at the fed. in other words, it's not as if all the liquidity has been rushing directly into stocks it just seems as if there's just -- the pie has not shrunk. >> it's a correlation versus causation kind of question which is that we can see there is a correlation when the treasury draws down its cash. we have typically seen big growth rallies the last one happened in the summer of '21. you couldn't describe or define why it was happening, and this could be a scenario where we might not be able to draw a direct line into this is the reason it's happening, but these things have correlated and i would also point out that growth stocks have diverged from real yields which means they're levitating at a valuation level that's not consistent with the value of yields. >> that has loosened up. let's bring in greg branch and victoria greene. both are cnbc contributors, and greg, weigh in here.
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you have been assuming the fed is going to be perhaps even higher for even longer than the market has been expecting, and i don't know some of the officials this week were trying to step off that treadmill. >> yeah, and that's what they were supposed to do, mike, to the extent that the politicians and certainly the banks were going to do some of the fed's work for them. the politicians by bringing us the precipice of default which may still result in a downgrade which will still slow growth, and the banks as we saw in the reports, upending writing standards of their own accord. i think cam hit something on the head they need to replenish the tga, and that's probably in the magnitude of the $7 billion. they spent down $600 billion of untaxed and unborrowed money which was an injection into the bloodstream. not only did it result in elevated valuations, but it resulted in a surprisingly strong first quarter we're not going to get that in the second quarter, and so i
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think that we will move on from the debt ceiling absent a downgrade which is 50/50 probability on, and we will move back towards watching the fed. at thee end of the day, they hae a problem. the economy has been stubbornly re resi resilient. the fed's probably looking at that 339,000 jobs added which crushed consensus, and i think they're likely concerned here. >> i guess the question i have on the debt downgrade -- does anybody lock ok back at s&p's dowdgr downgrade, and say, that's when we should get negative it seems like a political gesture or comment, and fitts just said, we'll keep you on negative rating batcing watch.
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>> i'll quivel with the political aspect of it david beers whos the guy who made that decision at the time said it was the right decision at the time because of the political environment and because of the increasing debt let's really give cover to those who put this on watch. they believe it's political, and who knows where it's going to go if you believe it's substantive-based, i think there's a likelihood or reasonable likelihood for a downgrade, and if that all happens, we'll be concerned about global growth. >> it was a political assessment, and about the willingness to pay from investors' point of view, it doesn't matter, and hasn't raised across the capital observably for the u.s victoria, just wondering how you're thinking about this rally at this point today. does it feel justified does it feel as if people are starting to chase a little bit too much to the upside or does it have some room?
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>> yeah, i'm going to say it feels a little bit bubbly, right? the way i'll look at it and this is nifty fifty--esque aof the fund in '19 and '20, and then it fell apart and people start throwing around, absurd, what might happen and not necessarily based on reality, you have to get a little bit worried when people start talking about this stock won't go down. their earnings growth can't slow, you know, it's impen impenetrable, and i think you have to take a step back and say, okay. what's reasonable? if you look at the runup of nvidia or meta or tesla. i'm not saying they're pets.com, but they have a lot of earning growth, but they're beyond priced to perfection hugging the bench has helped with sup concentration and low brea breadth, but you have to look elsewhere. we're getting bubbly
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bubbles persist, and tend to last longer than we think is possible, but i think you want to be looking more, and i'm more on the rips. even above 4,200, i worry about a little bit of froth here, and what's going to be our catalyst? we're hitting this dead zone until the fed. they're about to go on blackout. we'll get a bit of data, but we're beyond the debt ceiling. maybe a bank comes back into play, but that's not good news earnings are done. what's going to move us higher the next few weeks >> yeah. i mean, i guess what's going to move us higher except for the fact that people feel underexposed to a market that's up 10% on a year to day basis, right? who knows how it plays but i guess, victoria, in that world, if it's looking bubbly to you in the slice of the market that has been showing high momentum, where else looks a little bit less so and more reasonable >> yeah, sure. value obviously has been
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extremely unloved as cameron talked about the equal weight. we talked about the s&p versus equal weight and we talked about a 10% difference this year the dividend stocks are highly unloved. they held up extremely well last year, but i don't think you want to give up on your quality names and you want to chase this right now because of the foe mo, and o need to understand your allocations and risk and don't be chasing just because everybody else is buying it and i think that happens to a lot of investors and a great parallel in my opinion is what happened with the ark fund in 2020. people started buying it because it was like it couldn't lose, and then you hit the recession there in 1972 with the nifty fifty, and those stocks couldn't lose and then you hit a recession. i step back and i think, what part of the economic cycle are we really in are we wlreally in a new economc cycle or are we late innings where we're going to see continued slowdown
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i hate to sound like debbie downer like i am rooting for the market to work i'm rooting for the economy to work, but i think at the same point, you need to step back and say, are we going to economically get better or get worse? >> yeah. i mean, just for the record, the ark fund quadrupled in a year before it peaked things can be nutty. cameron, i guess i'll end by saying, is muddle through a decent scenario for the economy? it's true. late cycle is late cycle you can't escape the fact we have low unemployment and profits maybe have crested, if not worse. but for the markets, can we kind of deal with the slow -- a slow pace of things if the fed backs away >> i think it raises an interesting point which is that if we continue this muddle through, even if we have a recession, we're starting from a higher base. so maybe we don't go as deep as people feared back in 2022, but i would say that the muddled
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through is what's being priced at least if you looked a earnings expectations, there's a rebound priced into 2024 with a big rebound in margins which is effectively saying there will be no recession and we'll have strong revenue growth. i think that's the current base case for this market, and it is then the question of, if that muddle through is enough for the fed to keep rates higher for longer, will interest rates ever matter for valuations? right now there's a disconnect, and maybe that can persist, but we've seen in history that usually interest rates are very important for valuations. >> at times, and sometimes suddenly i guess, greg, just to finish up, where would you actually take shelter if that's what you think is necessary here if you really think the fed is going to have to do more, maybe bonds or not that safely, do you think the long end is okay >> well, i think short duration bonds are certainly safe. >> better? okay >> i want to follow up on what cameron said interest rates are absolutely important because right now the
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estimates for the third quarter and the fourth quarter are not reflecting what the fed has already done, much less what they're going to do, and i'm on record of speaking that the terminal rate, now that we're past the debt ceiling is 60 cents plus it's 2% growth in the fourth quarter and 245 on the s&p in 2004 those estimates aren't necessarily reliable, and so a good friend said, the s&p is trading 17 times i said, no it's probably trading 20 times real estimates, and so it's really hard to have a broad-based rally when you have downward positions ahead and that's where we are, mike. >> we haven't gotten a break see if it lasts through next earning season at least. cameron, greg, victoria, thanks very much. appreciate the time today. let's get to our twitter question of the day. we want to know, now that the jobs report data is out, what do you think the fed will do at its next meeting skip, pause, or hike
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head to @cnbcclosingbell on twitter to vote. we'll share the results later this n this hour a skip means they don't hike and maybe they hike down the road. let's look at stocks to watch with kristina. >> tangs fhanks for that clarity over a dozen states have filed lawsuits suing chemical manufacturers like 3m over toxic forever chemicals. that's what they call them or pfas that are found in clothing and household goods which eventually end up in our drinking water today a bloomberg report says they struck a $10 million settlement to resolve their water pollution claims tied to these chemicals. this news comes after dupont, and others also settled over contaminated u.s. public water earlier this morning and that's why you're seeing all of these names up almost 9% and the other names too, also climbing higher. nowairbnb, it's up about 4%.
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there's no major stock catalyst or news thakt i could see, but the company is filing a lawsuit over new york city over a new law against short-term rentals the law will limit the number of people who can host rentals and the mayor adding, it will review the lawsuit. mike >> kristina, thank you we are just getting started here up next, apple's highly anticipated developer's conference kicks off in just a few days we'll hear from an analyst who just upped his price target ahead of the event he will make his case after the break. and later, the telecom tumble, and it's getting slammed thanks to one big tech name. we'll explain. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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apple shares coming within 1% of an intraday record they have a win streak our next guest just raised his price target for apple ahead of the company's annual developer's conference next week andrew of jeffries joins us. you mentioned you're thinking the expected introduction of the ar/vr headset by apple could be one of the most important moments in apple's history as a hardware platform. that seems like a high bar how do you make the case
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>> it is a high bar. it's rare that apple or anybody tries to introduce something, you know, groundbreaking the iphone, the ipod, and this is the next attempt at building the next platform. cnbc and everybody has been covering what the next platform is after mobile, you know, this is probably apple's big attempt to define what that is >> and what do you believe they need to show investors -- i guess show the public to make people believe it? i guess first of all, does it matter we can think back to previous introductions, whether it's airpods and the watch. low expectations, you know, people were, like, oh, this is nice around the edges and then all of a sudden, over years it grows into a significant business are we looking for a similar trajectory here? >> it's got to be a similar trajectory, right? this device potentially has some of the most leading edge technology that's going to fit on your head it's probably going to be $2,000, $2,500 that's not a mass market device,
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but, you know, as they bring the cost down, as they find use cases, yes, it could easily become a very significant -- a very significant device and revenue driver for apple >> i mean, the stock obviously has performed well, even in a market where first of all, apple's, you know, is in a fiscal year where earnings are flattish, and growth resumes next year, and it's performed well in that light, but also without being seen as one of the core artificial intelligence plays. what is apple going to have to say on that front, and does it matter >> i don't think it matters yet. we don't expect them to say anything about ai or actually, we expect them to say very little about ai, right they seem to be taking a fairly cautious approach. they already built it into a lot of their products and had a developer's conference when the developer conference is really about the attendees. they'll say, look. it's you guys who are building all the really cool apps you're building them on our
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platform we're enabling you to do it so go off and build the next great app, and if that's ai, wonderful, you know, it'll sit on an apple device somewhere. >> yeah, and you have price targets we mentioned up to $210. what gets you there in terms of the mix of, you know, valuation, and what investors need to embrace to think that's what the stock is worth >> right now, a lot of it's just a, you know, our view as investors are looking for safe havens, right? a lot of uncertainty out there the one thing that is not uncertain is apple's position and consumer devices, apple's position in services, apple's position on capital allocation, and so we think it's just a great safe haven stock here, and it's already performed that way. i think that's what's been driving the mega-caps this year, and i think app sl a key stock in that group. >> certainly if that continues to be the market's attitude, it's the one they'll settle on
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andrew, appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you for having me. and don't miss a special edition of "closing bell" live from on monday coming up, what's next for the fed? awaiting that june meeting alan blinder joins us with what he's expecting from powell, and what it might mean for the markets after today's strong jobs report. "closing bell" will be right back there's an abundance of reasons to get started. how far we take an idea is a question of willpower. because progress... is a matter of character.
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rallying following this jobs report, so what does it all mean for the fed's next move? let's ask former vice chairman, alan blinder great to speak with you. the market is treating good news on a head lines payroll number as good news. >> right >> can the fed accept this level of job growth and take a meeting off with rate hikes? >> i think the fed is looking at it as mixed news it's not that they want people
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to lose their jobs, but the job market has been so buoyant and it's been a longstanding worry of the fed in terms of getting inflation down while the jobs market is so strong. i'm not saying i think they must think also, so far so, good. the inflation rate is drifting down, too slow for the fed they would like it to go down faster, but it's certainly drifting down even though the job market is very strong. look, if that could keep up forever, that would be wonderful, you know, i don't think the fed thinks it can keep up forever, and so there's both giant sadness if you want to put it that way from the fed's point of view as opposed to the stock markets in this report >> i guess the question is, i mean, certainly when you say nix news based on today's jobs report, there was a deceleration in wage growth, the hours worked was also down. the household surveys showed an uptick in the unemployment rates. so perhaps there's some offsets
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in there do you think that the fed can actually believe that there isn't a certain level of unemployment they need to engender to really do the job on inflation at this point? >> that's the traditional view, but i think that view has been weakening for years, and during this episode, it's been weakening even more because of what i have been saying before here's the job market with a three handle the unemployment rate with a three handle for a very long time in the old days we would have said, for sure, inflation is going to be going up that has certainly not happened. it's not down where they wanted. it's been drifting down despite that i think whatever degree of certainty or uncertainty the members had a year and a half ago about the point you were just raising, it's got to be much less now. >> it is interesting to just think back it was not three months ago that we had the little regional banking crisis we thought that might put the
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fed on hold. presumably it's going to have some impact on credit creation the fed creates the senior loan and officers survey, and that's raising some warning flags the yield curve has been indicating a downturn perhaps already. these things must also be on their mind that, you know, the ingredients are somewhat in place to have the economy weaken up so maybe they don't have to do that much more on the rates side >> it's possible i would have paused then right now that's now behind us, we hope. the debt ceiling which could have been a real calamity is behind us, and so, you know, the outlook for the economy is looking -- i don't want to say clear. less cloudy than it was before, and it's coming down to what we
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were talking about a moment ago. can the inflation rate keep drifting down even with that kind of a low unemployment rate? so far in the last year or so, the answer is yes. >> yeah. and are you in that camp that believes that the more difficult ground to make up on inflation is going to be ahead of us in terms of getting it from, you know, four-ish down toward two versus how it's been to now? >> absolutely. i mean, if you look at the cpi instead of the pce -- the pce is what the fed concentrates on the pce peaked around 5-ish. that's four percentage points u you don't get that from the fed tightening you get that from oil mostly and supply chains and things like that it's probably behind us. now look, i don't know what's going to happen to the price of oil in the coming six months
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neither does anybody else because the ukrainian uncertainty is still there the supply chain problems are probably behind us at least we think so, and now we're down to sort of conventional what as you know, economists like to call the phillips curve thinking you have slack in the economy and that eats away at the inflation rate. there are signs of slack in the economy, but the unemployment rate is not really a strong one in that regard right now >> yeah, absolutely. makes you wonder if we're going to have to rethink what's going on structurally with the labor market alan, thanks so much i appreciate the time today. >> you're very welcome >> all right up next, stocks rallying on today's jobs report. top technician jeff degraff is breaking down those charts and highlighting one part of the market he thinks could run "closing bell" will be right back
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rallying on the heels of the jobs report with the s&p 500 covering near its highest level since last august. is the market's recent momentum set to stall or is there still more room to run let's ask jeff degraff, the chairman and head of technical research at renaissance. it's good to see you you have been, you know, in the camp, sticking to the idea that this market is in an uptrend
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since october, it's gotten a little ragged. parts of the market have, you know, are on the verge of breaking down, but what's your assessment right now of this push to a new, i guess, nine-month high? >> yeah, look. i'm still optimistic i think there are better things happening than people or particularly the bears are giving it credit for one of the big ones for us, our credit spreads have really kind of led the way here. they've stalled out a little bit, but certainly not anything like you would expect given the concerns around banking and some of these concerns around recession, and i think that's kind of the bears' biggest foil here is it's hard to explain what's happening to the credit markets. they have been very, very resilient, and usually the equity markets are going to be an offshoot to that, and i think that's exactly what you are seeing you know, this is one of the more interesting markets that i can remember in my 33 years of doing this
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you have different industry groups within sectors or different stocks that look completely different let's give you one example, the difference between uber and lift last i checked, they're both in the ridesharing business i know there are a few bells and whistles to the different companies, but we see that in every sector that you can draw a distinction to very good charts in one industry group, but within the same sector, very bearish charts as well that's been the challenge and been a stock picker's market. >> absolutely, and that theme of haves versus have nots, the markets teams not being able to be broadly inclusive, at least it hand been for now, and that's been a big criticism, right? it's just a few stocks and the real market isn't doing a whole lot, but today we see some catchup moves. is there a possibility of the market essentially repairing itself internally by rotating? >> you know, it's a much higher probability than people give it credit for, and i know people are using this breadth as a crutch, and the breadth has not
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been as robust as you want it to be, but it certainly hasn't been exclusively bearish as well, and i think that's important when we go back and look at the points of divergence of using trends, 68% of the time, which was called two-thirds of the time, breadth catches up with price, and not the onther way around it was at the beginning of 2022. it was a divergence that led to a bear market of 2007, and then the same thing at the end of 1999 breadth was wackeeaker than the market, and the s&p has been trending and breadth has not been trending and what ended up happening is instead of the s&p succumbing to the breadth line, the breadth line, again, two-thirds of the time started to repair and improve itself back to the market averages. so i think that's just another -- i think it's been too widely used of an excuse, and
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there was this focus on quality, particularly around the debt ceiling and the banking crisis, and now that that dissipates a bit, people were stepping out on the spectrum you're seeing it in high-quality names in terms of performance, and that tends to be good news, not bad news. >> i want to get your current take on the semiconductor group which you have been favorable toward for a little bit here, but obviously some really kind of vertical moves. where does that stand? >> yeah, up is good in our book until it's not that's a tough one, right? there was a couple of things we used to tell when the momentum is too strong. one is we look at a rolling sharp ratio where we do alpha, and, you know, right now if we look at the three-year rolling sharp ratio, it's around 50 bay sus points and semiconductors peak around one. there's a long way to go in terms of the performance to say this is too much and the trees don't grow to the sky. the other part which i think i
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acceptability you a chart is the etf flows, and right now when we look at the etf flows accounting for the share creation and the share redemptions, we actually see the flows are right in the middle latitudes of where they are historically that's just not a danger zone. we get worried when people are really kind of climbing all over themselves to get exposure to that maybe that happens going forward, but right now, you know, we think momentum is actually an ally, not an adversary until we see either those extreme sharp ratios or we start to see these etf flows really become too exuberant. >> interesting to think the real chase could be to come we'll see. jeff, great to speak with you. have a great weekend >> you too all right. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we asked, now that the jobs report data are out, what do you think the fed will do at their next meeting skip and then resume hikes, pause, or hike we'll bring you the results after this break
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plus, we're tracking the biggest movers chkristina standing by with thes >> software developers are warning of smaller deal sizes. what name is bucking that trend? we'll have the names right after this short break massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. ugh covid-19? i'm not waiting. if it's covid, paxlovid. authorized for emergency use, paxlovid is an oral treatment for people 12 and up who have mild-to-moderate covid-19 and have a high-risk factor for it becoming severe. my symptoms are mild now, but i'm not risking it. if it's covid, paxlovid. if you have a risk factor, like being 50+, being overweight, asthma, or others, don't wait. if you get covid, there's something you can do. taken within 5 days of symptoms, paxlovid reduced the risk of developing
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14 minutes until the closing bell let's get back to kristina for a look at the key stocks to watch. >> i'm looking at sentinel one because that pushes down 35% after the cybersecurity revenue missed expectations. weak demand and high operating losses are really just hitting margins. analysts are rushing to downgrade this name, so that's further adding to the selloff,
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and it's not a loan. software firm, pager duty heading in the same direction, down about 17% right now, citing smaller deal sizes and buyer hesitation that's not the case for mongo, a raised financial joutlook. they were able to add kcustomer. the ceo joins "overtime" at 4:00 p.m. eastern you won't want to miss that today. mike happy friday >> you as well thank you. let's get the results of our twitter question we asked now that the jobs report data are out, what do you think the fed will do at its next meeting hike is the winner, 40% of the vote believing the jobs report is enough to have them move despite what officials have been saying in recent days. up next, lulu lemon's stock up double digits we'll speak with a top analyst about where he sees the stock
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headed from here that and much more when we take you inside the market zone
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power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. lori is here on why she's raised her targets for the s&p 500 this year plus, simeon siegel on the post-earning surge, and julia borsten on the target move you upped your target. the markets listened to you and we're above that right now
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where to now what do you think the market currently is pricing in? >> so -- well, thanks for having me on, mike. look i think the market has really been very forward-looking. i think in 2022, we pre-traded 2023, and this year we're really pre-trading 2024, and we started to notice on some of our indicators we're starting to look at indicators that are moving up nonetheless. >> that would imply you think the market is correct in believing we get an earnings rebound going into next year and things fall into place fundamentally. is that without a recession or is that kind of beyond a recession? >> i don't know if we're going to end up calling it a recession. i think that whatever it is, it started. whether it ends up being a growth scare, a technical mild recession, i think the market has been prepared for that i think we've priced that in at the october lows if it gets far worse than that, then i think you might need to
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see the markets reprice lower. if it's contained into this year, i think we paid the price for that last year, and frankly, you know, and i hate to sigh say t say this, but the fact we're getting confirming evidence and starting to break down in terms of consumer behavior, it's because we do need whatever this is to get it started so we're not just constantly pushing it down into the future. >> absolutely. we have been in those periods before where we can't get off of that late cycle vigil. within the market, what looks interesting right now? everyone's talked about the gross stock dominance, and small stocks bouncing to catch up. >> small caps are having a good day. we are up about 3% or 4% on the russell 2,000. we saw the unemployment rate tick up just a little bit, and one of the charts that we have had a lot of interest in in our investor meetings has been one that shows that typically if you are in the middle of a recession and the unemployment rate starts
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to tick up, that's about when the small cap trade inflects i think it inflected or started trying to do that last summer. it got interrupted by svb. i think this is really kind of a continuation, but really the idea is, you know, once everyone sort of knows that certain things are breaking down, and that economic damage is upon us, it's priced into the small cap part of the market i think that's one of the reasons why it's rotating so heavily today, and we're seeing the value trade in general catch up and small cap has become synonymous with that value trade, and we have seen certain things suggesting that the growth trade is ready to take a breather in terrims of just rotating that and letting the rally broaden out. we're trying to reclaim some of that leadership, and they're having a good day so far >> this is an easy way for those divergences to take care of that lori, great to talk to you thanks so much lulu lemon shares surging after a 24% jump in first-quarter
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sales. ceo calvin mcdonald discussed that growth on "squawk on the street" earlier today. >> around the globe in every market we're in, double-digit growth not just here in north america, but every international market obviously standout performance in greater china, but also we're very pleased with our performance across the world >> let's bring in simeon siegel and he raised his price target on lulu to $355 from $340 a share. the market seems to love it. >> good to see you how much more comfortable did calvin look? we need to get some lulu on. listen i agree with what lori just said i think this notion of this is the recession everyone has been waiting for, but hasn't happened yet, lulu isn't seeing any of that pressure. we're nearing the end of that earning cycle where that was not
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good enough and lulu put up a very strong quarter. i think your question, we're dealing with is stock, and right now we're seeing the stock go back to where it was about a month ago. is it going to get better, and can it get better? those are very fair questions, and i think it was a healthy, strong quarter that appears very much priced into the stock >> to be clear, you are more neutral on the stock even as you raise your price target as the valuation has rebuilt. i mean, the market clearly is just kind of crowding into the durable retail and consumer names, and discarding those that seem more vulnerable where do you find there to be decent opportunity in the sector >> i think it's interesting. you and i talk about various types of companies here. we have the nikes of the world where you have consistency and size and scale you have the tjxs of the world where you have offprice, i will benefit from a tradedown, and then also i have companies that i look at that are trading at five, six, seven, times e
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earnings unless you think they're going to completely crater and they held their guidance, some of these companies are getting it cheap. it's a risk profile curve, and you can look at the tjxs as being your more protected compounders, right a little bit less exciting, mu bu more consistent, and then on the other hand, you have bath and body works which are these company that is if lori's right, and if we make it through and don't see something really problematic, it's going to be a lot of repricing opportunities across retail because it'll happen on the way down. >> lulu are starting to pay up for the perception they have, clear sailing for awhile are they in the zone with the nikes of the world where the brand can just endure in that way? >> i don't want to talk about my pay grade. i think when we talk about -- we get philosophical here must multiples are generally premium. over the last decade, if you had
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a consistent company, it would pay up for that, and so i think lulu is a typical growth stock i think nike is a consistency premium, and i think tjx is a consistency premium. the latter two will never live up for that peg ever again we'll make it seem more realistic and buying it at night. what that means in practice is lulu maintains the multiple as long as they maintain the growth it's much harder to break a story. >> i was going to say, very crucial distinction, lulu maybe isn't there. simeon, thanks very much have a great weekend >> great to see you. >> i want to get to julia on these reports about potentially amazon having ambitions, julia in the telecom space, excuse me. >> telecom stocks plummeting today on that report that amazon is in talks with wireless carriers to offer free or low
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cost mobile service. look at these shares down over 3% at&t down 3.5%, and t-mobile shares down over 6% in contrast. dish shares are up about 16% today. now verizon, at&t, and t-mobile all telling cnbc they are not in discussions about a wireless prime service. we have not yet heard back from dish amazon saying, quote, we are always exploring adding even more benefits for prime members, but don't have plans to add wireless at this time. mike, that phrase, at this time, it leaves the door open. >> absolutely, and the market is clearly taking it that way that they're not exactly closing the door on this possibility julia, thanks very much. appreciate it. as we round out the week, about 30 seconds to the close, the s&p 500, just a handful of points from its previous august highs remember those august highs came right before jay powell, the fed
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said there would be pain to come in the economy 85% upside volume on the new york stock exchange today. the volatility index collapsed to more than a year and a half low at about 14.5, and it looks like the dow will go out with a gain of 2.1% just under 700 points. that does it for "closing bell." let's go to "overtime" with morgan brennan and jon fortt >> and what a market rally it was today with the dow finishing up 2.1%, and the s&p up almost 1.5% the nasdaq closing at a fresh 52-week high that's the scorecard, and the action is just getting started welcome to "closing bell overtime." coming up on today's show, two ceos whose stocks are flying today on the back of earnings. we'll speak with mongodb's chief about last night's better than expected results and today's

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