experience. >> all right well, we'll leave it there pat morehead from morehead insights and strategy. great to have you. >> thanks. apple, opec, fed members in a blackout ism services those are things to watch. >> that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. "fast money" starts now. right here on "fast. a debt deal signed, sealed and delivered. we'll go inside how long can the move higher last plus, hanging up on telecom stocks amazon could jump into the wireless business scaring the you know what out of all of the other carriers and later our chart of the week. that's week with an a. a dollar and a nightmare the stocks that cratered and the fears it's stirring. i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money.

bono, julie, we start with a jobs led rally the dow jumps more than 2% the s&p posting its highest close since august the nasdaq, its best level in over a year. the tech heavy index now up for six straight weeks that's its longest winning streak since early 2020. take a look at some of the leaders. cyclicals like energies, along with small caps, outperforming the broader market tech and communication services were up a percent. what does this diversion say about today's market rally are we in for mean reversion, grasso >> yeah. i think you could see a little bit of that. i think the steel angle is you have the debt deal that's done, you have the fed who's close to being done and then you have china stimulus all of that is a recipe to watch these stock sectors sort of take the lead right now but i think you need that reversion back off of the hoopla from the tech

names. >> yeah, i think it's a mix of better economic data than expected and under allocation in the areas that have outperformed today. we've talked ad nauseam how tech has led the move higher. there's been no shortage of coverage in terms of how we've been under invested and exposed to cyclic calls. today was a culmination of all of that coming together. you had the jobs report, when i first saw it, i was like, oh, my goodness, let's look out for today. when you parse the data, the wage was going to cause the fed to continue to be more aggressive seemed to abate a goldilocks situation that coupled with the fact that we've been probably under invested with the areas led to the squeeze. >> julie beal, i was thinking of you. do you think this lasts? >> i think it's the same concept of mean reversion that we've been seeing where they have just been absolutely annihilate the

last year. so i think you would expect if cyclicals are coming back in favor, people are going to be feeling more favorably towards small and midcaps. i think you need to be very, very choosey these businesses often have more leverage they are often more cyclically sensitive. the consumer is in great shape as we'll talk about later with dollar general. >> guy, do you think this baby ai bubble that we've witnessed, i don't know if you call it baby, it's pretty darn big and it led to a record flow -- record amount of in flows into the latest part of the week to bank of america, is that done? have we seen the peak of that? >> listen, i would hope it's going to cool off for a while. gives people sort of time to ascertain, cool off, make reasonable decisions goldie locks is one of those things you know it makes me wince i'm sure you can see it out of the corner of your eye, me making that face there is nothing goldilocks out there. unemployment is starting to tick up maybe that is a good thing

just the way the fed thought they could control inflation, which they couldn't, they somehow think they're going to be able to control the unemployment rate going higher, which they won't be able to. under the surface there are a lot of things to be concerned be about. we can talk about the health of the consumer i'll tell you we're going to look at a weak charter later the market is goinghigher. i understand why people are euphoric it gets more there's nothing to suggest it's nothing more than multiple expansion and a chase. >> you hear about all of the headwinds with s.n.a.p. benefits ending, it will lead to an average of $393 per month.

>> back to reality and what guy touched on with the unemployment numbers. as long as you have a job. as long as you have some income coming in, then you're going to spend money. the problem is, to guy's point, when the muse sing stops do we think the music is going to stop? you figure there's a disconnect between the unemployment rate and the real big mac crow numbers and how many -- how many people are gig workers versus full-time workers. so i think there's a lot of noyes in this and people, yes, euphoric that's the main word i would go with i think that when you really look at it, what they're spending money on, you can't get on a flight. you can't get into a hotel we're going into peak travel season we're going into peak vacation season people are still out there spending money, and when it comes down like a hammer, if it ever does, i don't know, it just

seems that people still -- we're talking about historic low unemployment even if it ticks up a percentage point, we're at historic low levels. it's been the most hated rally. >> yeah. >> and that means it will still continue. >> you can make every single argument and every argument to use a guy word could be a cogent word it's valued 18 times forward or something like that. you have a market that is moving on momentum. bono win, trying to fight this has been a losing battle, painful battle for many out there. when do you decide, you know what, i'm going to go with this momentum you have to trade the market you have >> i've experienced some pain. i'm not going to back away from my thesis. steve, you mentioned the spending i'll paint the picture a slightly different way yes, maybe the consumer is still compelled to spend we're already talking about credit pullbacks banks don't want their loan portfolio being more skewed to

consumer debt than they want it skewed to commercial debt. they don't want those ratios getting out of line. to guy's point, it's nothing about multiple expansion, yes. it's why we sit here and say you have to be invested to a certain extent it's about whether you're going to hedge i think at this point given where the vix is and given the momentum for the up side, i think it makes a lot of sense to go and be put on protection here if you want to continue to ride your longs, you can. i wouldn't do nothing and i certainly wouldn't be piling more money into the market but i would be doing it in a way, fine, you want the outside participation, do it in calls. if you want the cash outlay through cash equities, you can put on protection. if you get the up side, you are only getting a fraction. >> sounds like guy's favorite show called "options action" which starts. >> no, it just started. >> 14 and change, it's unbelievable here. guy?

>>. >> was that me, mel? i apologize. we were discussing it on our phone call. >> i apollo guys i'll say this. i think we'll probably do something on this over the next couple of weeks, but these zero to expiry options, whatever they're calling them, that's been a big part. i haven't figured them out a lot of people are talking about the rise in them and the amount of volume is tamping down the volatility index that's one of the things, you know i'll never use this term. people start talking about the vix being somewhat of a coiled spring i don't think you're getting paid enough at these levels to sell up side calls you're certainly looking at volatility where if you want to buy put protection it does make sense to bonawin's point >> zero day options, more than 40% of the total volume for the s&p. let's move on here steel producers helping the

industry shine brighter. how much more shine is there in the metal rally? let's ask the chart master, carter braxton worth what are you seeing? >> i think the strength is not idiosyncratic to steel and iron ore and other related stocks it was everything. caterpillar, 3m, beaten down left behind equities that caught a bid. specifically as it rates to steel before we get to the charts, if you look at an all data global iron and steel index, it peaked in the first half of '08 when the shanghai composite peaked it's very much related to china. let's drill down the first chart we have is the new york stock exchange steel index. what you have here is something that of course sells off 20% you can see that there from its february high, whereas, the market now is back to its february high. this has room to run so we're just moving above that down trend line. longer term you'll see the new

york stock exchange steel x did as did shanghai and global iron ore and steel industries peaks in '08 the question is is this formation good enough to play for further bounce i would say yes. let's look at nucor, the biggest, ironically. great companies like u.s. steel, inland steel, bethlehem steel, this is the biggest. what you see going back to 1980 is a very orderly chart. it doesn't have the cyclicality. in the final chart, look at a comparative chart of nucor versus the s&p it is triple the s&p since 1980. u.s. steel is unchanged. nucor's performance matches that of coke. you have to pick the right one, of course. i think nucor is playing for a bit more of a bounce. >> do other material stocks, carter, look as good to your eye as nucor >> well, again, it's not that they're good because they're not

great patterns it's just they popped after being so bad that maybe they're good for a little bit further pop. >> a little bit further. all right. carter, thank you. we'll see you in a few minutes for "options action. guy, how much further do you go with nucor, for instance >> is it further or farther? mel. i know you're a stickler. >> it's further. it's not distance. >> i'm messing i look at alcoa. it traded at september lows of last year. 31 and change, 32. we bounce pretty significantly in terms of risk/reward, i would go to aa here, mels. >> i like how carter phrased that they've been so bad maybe the mean reversion means a pep go back to 1980. nucor specifically looks extremely stretched in the short term so i'll defer to carter, but i think that one i would be looking to take profits if i was

in it. >> part of the bounce is this report that china might be considering more stimulus, particularly focused on the property sector. i'm wondering, if that's the case, if china is part of this little pep in these stocks, what's the better way to go in your view? material stock or china stocks >> i probably would rather go -- honestly, neither, for me. >> all right >> you know, but i -- but i agree. i think that is giving a nice little boost to the markets at this point if you're playing in chinese stocks, you're also probably being -- getting some nice exposure to what's happening in ai but, you know, it's very hard to feel very confident about the regulatory regime in those stocks so for me it's neither. >> unfortunately, what the viewer that is arrange gri the fact that it's only been tech stocks that have been running, if you were to ask a person would you rather, they'd probably rather chinese tech stocks on the bounce versus playing the material names

because any bounce in the material names doesn't seem substantive. doesn't seem worthy of sustaining, but also the bounce in the chinese tech stocks hasn't held either so you're sort of picking your poison, as guy lochs that term we have to make him a game on that, pick your poison i think it comes full circle with where we started the show you're probably going to get pushed back into large cap, u.s. tech stocks after the reversion happens again. so we'll be talking about this next week, but people -- once again, the market is -- this is the most hated rally ever, but the american based tech names, large cap names is probably where you're going to continue to have to hold your nose. >> i'm going to go back to the original question so i can say, guy, which poison do you pick, material stock -- >> good game, pick your poison. >> you love it it's a game that you made up it's decent. >> i'm going to answer the

question first and then i'm going to give you something to sort of chew on as we go to break. i think chinese stocks can bounce here. alibaba traded down at 77 1/2, 78 that was a match low bounced pretty significantly i would play alibaba before some of these resource names here, and i'll say this. how long have we been on air now, mel, 5 years. >> 16 1/2 first. >> "fast money" first, we did a would you rather for the audience that's tremendous work 386 outstanding. >> all right coming up. one discount retailer clocking in its second worst week ever. is the stock at a discount now we'll debate that. bad reception. shares of the cell phone carriers tumbling. how speculation of an amazon are entering into the space. we've got answers when "fast money" returns rganization

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even more benefits for prime members but don't have plans to add wireless at this time. so what did you make of this, julie? any price war in this area, it's bad for everybody. >> yeah. i mean, all of these carriers have spent such a fortune trying to build out their capabilities and they need to show some kind of return on investment. the last thing that they want is more competition in this space look, amazon has trained its shareholders to be very, very extremely exceptionally patient when it comes to profitability they have no problem taking down profitability if it enables them to sell more prime membership. that's really the thing that drives this stock. so i see this as being -- it makes sense for them this is a very natural reach and, you know, it is very sletening to those carriers. >> guy >> where there's smoke there's fire your margins are opportunity that's sort of the amazon creed. look at at&t this is at a -- within, you know, 30 cents of a 30-year low

in at&t, which is really tragic if you think about what the market's done over those 30 years. so in my opinion in terms of verizon and at&t, there's been no compelling reason people say the dividend. that's come and gone a hundred times over over the last couple of years this is just one more i think in terms of the stocks at least death nell for those names. >> t-mobile came out with a statement during the day today essentially saying they are not in discussions with amazon about such a plan so it did manage to pare its losses. it had managed to be down by 8% but still finished the day lower by 5. >> t-mobile has outperformed on a regular basis the rest of the group. obviously this would be a win for amazon amazon denies all the rest of it all the rest of the telecoms make it. this is when i miss having my friend john legere ultimately we would have seen what would have happened if amazon did enter into it

if they're not and i get guy's point, where there's smoke there's fire, but if they're not, you have a buying opportunity. >> i'm sure we would have gotten his unvarnished opinion. >> perhaps there's smoke where there's smoke. i'm unwilling to jump in with both feet. the q1 numbers for t we talked about the free cash flow short fall. they want to win where they have fiber and they haven't built out their fixed wireless infrastructure the challenges of that company are very well-documented the stock is probably priced where it should be to your point, t mobile has been the outperformer that dish move really jumped out at me. it's going from an existential company going from a dish company trying to be a wireless carrier. it's hard to justify a 20% move on the back of the smoke river. >> coming up it is friday you know we've got a chart of the weak for you

this one wasn't rallying with the rest of the markets. what was it? stick around ahead on "options action", lululemon stretching higher. will mike khouw stay in this name we have the trade ahead on oa you're watching "fast money" in times square back right after this. all electric lucid air. a car that goes as far as it does fast. as sleek as it is... spacious. as smart... as it is beautiful. introducing the lucid air. experience the best. ♪

we've got some news here on changes to the s&p 500 palo alto networks is going to replace the dish network palo alto going in, dish coming out. the shares are on the move in the after hours. palo alto up 4%, dish down just about 4%

let's move on. up here today very weak week for dollar general the stock dropping 20% in the last four days most of it coming yesterday. it was dg's second worst week on record guy, i thought this was supposed to perform in bad times fwhere the consumer, particularly low income, is under pressure. >> i'm sure they thought that as well that's what i thought. this stock in october was making all-time highs lots has changed look at their inventory build, 21% off of 8% growth listen to their commentary they've made some disastrous comments about the consumer going forward and what they thought the outlook was. you can't -- listen, ai is not going to solve all the world's woes when you listen to dollar gen, overlay that with walmart, target recently, i don't think it paints a particularly rosie

picture. >> there is a tradedown going on in the consumer that shops at dollar general the problem is they go to a food bank that's very troubling. >> it is broadly speaking and we have some execution issues here. they've made a decision to be more evergreen and focus on consumables. we know from other retailers, walmart, target, the consumables and staples are doing just fine. to me this points to something that's more self-inflicted harm than being specific to broadly speaking, but for sure we all know the low income consumer is pinched right now. >> that's interesting because they do have consumables and that has been the key to walmart versus target, for instance, bono bill simon, the former walmart u.s. chief said that's the

recipe for success in this environment. you have a mix where you're selling food. >> i can understand why they went that route. one name that we've kind of forgotten about is foot locker we saw same issues similar type of consumer we saw a lot of inventory loss or shrink, if you will then you saw a challenged consumer i think this is a bigger issue. >> it is time for the final trade on the friday show let's go around the horn guy adami. >> give a shout out to max myer, the executive producer of brian's show alibaba, mel. >> happy birthday, former vp of this show. julie biel >> i like the contact lens maker cooper. >> bono? >> listen, pretty crazy move i would not be chasing the dish move. >> steve grasso. >> max, happy 65th birthday. enjoy your weekend

happy 65th birthday, max delta, final trade. >> that does it for us here on "fast money" tonight do not go anywhere "options action" is up next. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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right now on oa tech riding a winning streak dating back to before the pandemic. the s&p at levels not seen before last august the dow posting the biggest one-day gain since november. the options trades to get in on these moves straight ahead. plus, tesla posting another revved up week charging higher by more than 11%. can musk keep the mojo we will update that later. lulu bounce and oracle's record-breaking run. i'm melissa lee. this i