tradition really fast. the lawrence brothers on top with both classes. hunter long's the harder. jett lawrence owning today. undefeated with the big bikes. everyone else trying to figure it out. for ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines oil prices get a lift with opec plus with the prince speaking exclusively to cnbc and defends the decisions. >> we're hedging hedging against the unknown. taking the precautionary

measure. the dow notches the best day since january as traders cheer a strong u.s. jobs report, but european equities are low. and the imf leader tells cnbc the federal reserve can't take its foot off the pedal yet. >> we don't see a significant slowdown in lending. there is some, but not on the scale that would lead to the fed standing back. and net profits for the airline industry are set to double according to the latest report secretary-general tells cnbc the post-pandemic recovery is not where they should be >> they are where they were above 2019

international markets in most areas are showing strong recovery the area that lagged is the asia pacific region good morning welcome to "street signs." there is one major news development we are watching overnight. let me get right to it opec's saudi arabia says it will cut production by 1 million barrels a day. biggest reduction in years oil producers agreed sunday to make no change at the group level and reduce from next year. saudi arabia announced output cuts from july reducing the output to 9 million barrels a day. saudi arabia going at it alone announcing 1 million barrel per day cut. we are seeing a reaction in the price of oil brent up 2.2%. wti up 2.3%.

saudi oil minister calling it a lollipop of some sort after opec agreed to keep the broad group levels unchanged it has been positive for the markets here and no surprise you are seeing a kconstructive reaction in the oil complex given how things are trading speaking to cnbc after the decision, the oil minister said he wanted to keep options open on cuts in the future. >> i think we did a full package which will sustain us and bring clarity and visibility to our intentions of what we want to do this year and the rest of this year and next year and the work we put together

means we will have a way forward that makes it more equitable and fair for everybody to assign for the production levels s in the transparent way. we believe there are institutions that can do the work and they are independent and reliable the reliability is subjective, but i can't think of the other three. >> what about the saudi lo lollipop the 1 million barrel cut >> i said lollipop and i said it is the icing of the cake both, i think, it is important that people realize that it was not something that was partpacke

i'm sure some will say it is a tit-for-tat thing. you have a way of verifying not a single person had heard of what number we will do or forwarded our proposals with this in mind we have this proposal with this thing attached to it we did that, if i recall, in february of 2021 and it went on for -- it depends on the situation which was more severe of the that is why we wanted to keep the option extended

>> we have seen oil prices fall 10% in may despite the cuts already in place what is the latest measure going to mean for oil market balances and market stability in the second half? >> one of the funny things, without going through the original language, when eight or nine countries issued, we used the word precautionary that means we're hedging hedging against an unknown that doesn't mean we're placing an affirmative or judgment on top of the market, but it was our sensibility, if you call it,

that the environment is not sufficiently allowing confidence to be there. taking precautionary measure puts you on the safe side and it is part of the rhythm we have i installed which is reactive. that is with us. it doesn't mean that we have certainty about how things go. >> let's get out to dan murphy in vienna. thank you for the interview with the prickly prince notable reaction in the market this morning >> reporter: that is right, joumanna good morning let's bring in our next guest. i'm pleased to say we have our guest outside here in vienna

thank you for speaking with me >> good morning, dan >> reporter: first of all, what is your reaction to the price action oil is up 2% is this vindication of the saudi cut and opec strategy? >> oil has been stubborn the reaction, perhaps, by the market where they thought would be a bigger increase in the price. dan, you were with me yesterday and prince salman says they don't look at the price or immediate price reaction there wasn't really a ban and they didn't mention what they expected for the price to do we really need to see the impact of these voluntary cuts. we are dealing with the market which is disjointed. sentiment is not aligned that is why you get the reactions and not what we traditionally expect when there is a cut of this magnitude, you expect a bigger reaction

>> reporter: by most accounts, this was a contentious meeting start of the meeting was delayed. how exactly did the ministers reach agreement like last night? >> it was a marathon to cover. there were lots of deliberations that happened ahead of the meeting. we understand meetings were taking place in prince's suite until 2:00 a.m. the night before the meeting. they were discussing the issue of the baselines it took a lot, but they did deliver and we're calling it a mega deal. so much to digest with the baseline and the cuts and the saudi voluntary cut in july. a lot for the market to take in. >> reporter: when it comes to the saudi cut, the minister calling it the saudi lollipop? could saudi extend that cut?

>> he said it depends on the market i think prince salman loves to keep the guessing. which moves will it come with exports? production is different than exports. we were reminded that this cut is a real cut. it is a 1 million barrel cut per day off aramco production. how it impacts the market remains to be seen saudi arabia does deliver on its commitment >> reporter: what would you say is the main winner and loser there was contention with the african producers. russia has walked out with agreement that seems to work in their favor. is that fair >> i would say yes the uae did get a larger production baseline. however, if you look at the voluntary cuts and how they are

extended and at the net gain for the uae, it is not that massive. for the african states, i would say nigeria and angola, are the ones who have to curb their qu quotas we saw they will still vrevisit that there is still potential for those quotas to be revised, dan. russia, i mean, they do have agreement they like and they are willing to be part of the group and cooperate. reports of tension between saudi arabia and russia blowing up the meeting. we have seen that was not the case >> indeed. >> reporter: one of the other reasons we like having you on is you have access to the data and analytics to give us insight to the markets for the second half of the year. i want your take on where you see prices going from here

i see we are heading for triple digits by year end what is your view? >> we don't have triple digits by year end. dan, i'll talk about the supply side we do see more supply back loaded during the second half of the year that is supposed to impact prices provided that these cuts do stay in place and we have deeper cuts now. we will be revising our numbers based on that. i guess we should see an upward turn in prices provided the demand materializes. >> reporter: and the macro concerns with china and the u.s. and what is happening broader europe, i guess, don't turn into something worse. >> we need the market to align with fundamentals. a disjoint with sentiment and fundamentals when the two align, what opec plus is doing, provided they deliver, we may see an impacts on price

>> reporter: i appreciate the conve conversation we'll have more insight on the opec deal throughout the program for you. julianna, back to you. >> dan, thank you for the coverage and bringing us that interview. now on the macro data, we have fresh pmi figures for the eurozone sometimes they are not exciting, but today they are interesting with diverging from the flash numbers. final composite pmi for may is 52.8 down from 53.3. a miss in expectation. the services figure at 55.1 against 55.9 expected. one thing to note, both are in expansion territory. weaker than the preliminary expectation. one comment in terms of what the provider has said with resilient service activity suggests the eurozone regains footing with

the positive rate of expansion in the quarter after the stagnation in the october to march period business growth slowed in may. factories struggled, but remain in expansion territory exports in germany rose with the impart demand in china it was more than than expected julianna, let's look at the markets in the early hours of trading. stoxx 600 is more positive someone surprising some would have thought it would be stronger with the positive data in the u.s. all three u.s. majors are ending in higher territory after the strong jobs report higher than the market anticipated. combined with weaker average hour earnings. people are saying this is the goldilocks scenario. it implies the fed has the opportunity to pause, but at the same time, no real recession flashing red indicators to be

mindful of that is the reason we did have the best day all year since january for the dow by the end of the session overnight in asia markets, positivity stoxx 600 leaning toward green not a major strong session in terms of the index, the breakdown is here on the board we are inching toward the green. negative reaction in the italian index be low 27,000 dax is 13 points higher today. we spoke about the export numbers coming through the import numbers are weaker he again, reflection of the macro weakness on the ground cac 40 is down .10%. luxury continues to come under selling pressure we have lvmh and hermes at the bottom and ftse 100 shouldn't be a surprise up .40%. that is because we are seeing a bounce in oil names. the surprise cut from saudi

arabia just a short while back and on the back of that, the bounce on the price of the spot oil and also in the oil equity companies. that is the reason why the stocks are moving higher in the ftse 100 in terms of sectors, this is the breakdown, oil and gas up 1% p telco with a good session. luxury down .60% tech coming off the gains we had the past few weeks down .50%. the reason is that overnight we also had a bit of selling pressure in asian be markets as well we're going to take a quick break. coming up on "street signs," we have the latest from asia as they look to boost dand emin the sector we will be right back.

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ubs share for every 12 shares held ubs is considering delaying the release of the second quarter results due on july 25th the bank chiefs may delay until august to coincide with the plan for the domestic business of credit suisse. that is something we will watch closely. and asos shares are higher after the 1 billion pound takeover offer from turkish retailer trendyol. this deal could em battle the retailer between 10 pounds per share. it lost 90% of the value over the last few years >> what satan extraordinary shae price up 11% this morning. in the airline spice, iata doubled profits this year and now projecting $9 billion for

202. dan has been busy covering opec, but spoke to the director general at the group's agm in istanbu istanbul >> the difference this time around is we are seeing the industry on the path to financial recovery which clearly is positive given the very difficult period we just gone through. you will expect airline ceos to continue to reflect on where they are seeing demand and challenges on the supply side and strong emphasis on the environmental performance of the industry and measures we're taking to address that >> willie, you say demand is recovering we are seeing airline profits improving. walk through the stat of the recovee

asia pacific region. the recovery is 56% of 2019. we expect that recovery to continue as we go through the year generally, it is a positive picture particularly in domestic markets and strongly recovering situation in the international markets. >> what would you say is the bag evident challenge facing the aviation sector today? >> the challenges in the short-term are outside of our control. they relate to air traffic control. we hesee restrictions on capaciy in the united states we see problems in europe.

airlines and airports were criticized last year for not getting resources in place in time for the recovery, the airlines have done their bit most airports are in good shape. traffic control is a problem this year. the other area that is frustrating is we're seeing supply chain issues and getting aircraftg longer to through their repair cycles. it is delaying the delivery of new aircraft that is impacting the pace of which supply is concerned to the industry you know, frustrating because it will impact summer of 2023 we are seeing that already again, you know, i'm optimistic that taking the overall picture into account, we can be positive about 2023 and beyond.

>> walsh told cnbc that chinese is stronger than expected despite the weaker macro data. >> our forecast, assuming china opens in the second half of the year the picture is worse you want to see from the macro point of view from the airline point of view, it represents an opportunity the pace of recovery is ahead of where we originally expected we are now factoring in the new data to get a view on where it is likely to go in the rest of 0 2023 and 2024. the chinese market is important. as the industry was recovering in other areas, there was a scope for airlines to focus areas where it is showing stronger demand.

i think that is still the case we are not dependent on the chinese economy. it opened sooner than we expected >> dan spoke to air france klm ceo and spoke about the pandemic >> we took on a lot of debt and loans that were made available to us by the dutch and french states quite thankful for that to help stabilize the company. we were pleased to finance and pay back with interest we are free from restrictions put in place requirements to refinance are in the works. we are looking at opportunities to take us with the strategic investment with partners

we had a ban on that through the financial support period we are looking to strengthen our balance sheet of the that would be by partial sale of assets >> reports suggest that the group is in talks with portugal for a potential acquisition. can you update us on that? how advanced are those talks >> the tap of privatization process has to go through a few steps before any official negotiations take place there has to be a decree by the portugal government which is short-term then conditions for a bid would be set if those conditions, we fit those conditions and make sense for us, we are quite interested.

the geography of portugal and the market to and from and the transformation can be an interesting addition for us. this is a bit early in the process. the official process has not started. coming up on "street signs," imf managing director tells cnbc says she has not seen a pull back in bank lending to bring a halt to the kihing cycle more on that interview after this

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well come back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche. >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. >> opec plus cuts 1 million barrels per day. the prince speaks to cnbc an defends the decision >> it means hedging.

the dow notches the best day since february as a strong u.s. job report. the imf managing director praises the resilient u.s. labor market, but tells cnbc the federal reserve cannot take its foot off the pedal yet >> we don't yet see a significant slowdown in lending. there is some, but not on the scale that would lead to the fed stepping back. net profits for the airline industry are set to double according to the latest report the secretary-general tells cnbc the post-pandemic recovery is un uneven >> markets recovered to slightly above where they were in 2019. international markets, in most

areas, are showing strong recovery the area that is lagging is the asia pacific region. welcome back to the show we are just getting some final pmi data crossing for the uk they are mildly different from the flash. the pmi composite at 553.9 as for the services, the flash at 55.1. again, the final number at 55.2. kn not as much as the eurozone a half hour ago suggesting the final pmi for the eurozone is weaker than the flash. in the case of the uk, it was a little bit higher. it tells you there is still a big discrepancy over what is happening in general to the service sector which continues to go from strength to strength versus the manufacturing sector

for uk and eurozone. >> you have sterling trading lower against the dollar down .40%. in terms of the dollar side of the trade, u.s. non-farm payroll surged in may. payrolls increased by 339,000 for the month. better than the 190,000 expected in marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth two times the number expected. the unemployment ticked up, but near the lowest level since 1969 average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month as expected. as joumanna said, goldilocks scenario. and president biden signed the bill on saturday to suspend the debt ceiling ending the standoff and averting a default. the deal passed both chambers and raises the debt limit until

2025 after the election panhand expanding work requirements for food and healthcare assistance in the televised address on friday evening, president biden praised both sides of the aisle for brokering the agreement. >> passing this budget agreement was critical the stakes could not have been higher if we had failed to reach agreement on the budget, there were extreme voices threatening to take america, for the first time in 247 year history, into default on the national debt nothing, nothing would have been more irresponsible nothing would have been more catastrophic the imf has not seen enough of a pull back in bank lending for the fed to make changes to the hiking cycle according to the managing director georgieva who spoke to karen in croatia.

she spoke about what this could mean for fed policy. >> what we see in the united states is resilient labor market and consumer spending. as a result, good news, we are projecting u.s. to grow this year by 1.6% bad news, it means that the pressure that comes from incomes going up and unemployment still very, very low means that the fed will have to stay the course and perhaps, in our view, they may need to do a little bit more we project the actions of the fed to have an impact and to slow down the economy and unemployment to go up to 4.5%. this is still a very strong labor market so no more talk about how high, but we talk about for how long

because of this resilience and strength of the labor market and economy. >> there is talk about tightening credit conditions thanks to the regional banking chri crisis in the united states that may do heavy lifting for the fed. it is not going far enough >> we don't yet see a significant slowdown in lending. there is some, but not on the scale that would lead to the fed stepping back. all i can say is watch the data. if we see the data that credit is slowing down materially, then, of course, that would cause the fed to rethink i cannot stress enough that we are in an exceptionally

uncertain environment. therefore, pay attention to trends and be agile adjusting should trends change >> the financial waters is fixated on the debt ceiling issue. cut spending $1.5 trillion over a decade should president biden have been more prudent in using this to tackle u.s. debt >> we believe the decision that was taken is helpful because more fiscal discipline would help in the fight against inflation. in that sense, what has been agreed in the context which was agreed is broadly speaking a good outcome where the problem lies is that repetitive debate around the debt ceiling in our view, not very helpful.

there is space to rethink how to go about it. the fear is, if you rethink are you going to let that rise further? not necessarily. prudent fiscal policy can contain debt and, after all, congress has a responsibility for appropriations that are not a run away train in terms of impact on debt president biden is handling a fairly complex situation with fiscal and be monetary policy having to work hand-in-hand. not an an -- not an easy task >> karen asked the governing member what continued hikes would mean for the ecb and what

data he has his eye on in europe >> i would say the current data that we have both on the real economic activity and inflation suggests this inflation process is under way as expected which is a good thing. however, if you look at the core inflation which is now eased, i think we need more data to be confident how quick this process is we see it happening and we expect it to be gradual. i think the risks to the gradual is less gradual. it is still upside we definitely need to be data dependent and look to the new data >> in contrast to market expectations for a fed pivot, cutting later this year, we are not talking about a skip or hop in june. potentially rates still going up if that were the scenario we're

facing that the u.s. is still hiking, what would that mean for the ecb? >> if they are still hiking? we have to look at our own data. i think the interest rates in terms of the euro/dollar is not important, but less important than the data they just explained we are looking at. whatever the fed will do, they will do according to the u.s. data and we will still have to do what we need to do and i think we are not at the end of the hiking cycle, but getting closer to the terminal rate. >> in your mind, june or july are likely for the ecb >> i think as i said we are still in the hiking cycle. until when we will have to see it depends on the data i have no idea we have to see how the data comes in let's get a check on

markets. european equities off to a muted start after the strong finish the end of last week for u.s. equities ftse 100 is up .50%. telecom is performing at the top from the sector perspective. france in the pflat line. ftse mib is pulling back .25%. it is a quiet week in terms of data which is the case after the non-farm payroll report. in terms of what is expected, it should be a quiet one. let's look at u.s. futures and terms for the wall street. s&p and nasdaq is poised for a negative start dow jones industrial average is looking to open 54 points higher at this stage. let's look at currencies. we are now saying we are in a

media blackout period with the fmoc meeting a 1 and 3 chance of a hike at the next meeting the dollar trading against the euro and sterling this morning 106.91 joumanna speaking of currency, simon is here with us. great to have you in person for a change let's start with the price action in the u.s. dollar. up until friday, there was a lot of talk about the potential for the fed pausing at the june meeting. you look at the reaction of the dollar today and the markets are telling you something different. the dollar is actually firming up perhaps the u.s. is telling you markets are pricing in another rate hike from the fed. >> it is difficult from the expected figurefigures. the path really on the currency

perspective is mixed that will weigh on the margin. markets discounting the value of the fed with the benefit of a pause. we are looking at the data and how we get equities we are looking at the dollar and we will see touches of weakness. that is the problem. where will we see a credible challenge to the u.s. economy right now? again, nothing stands out as exceptional. >> what is interesting is central banks have been telling us they are moving to data depe dependent model, volatility would go up, but it is going do down >> the data we have seen is mixed. we look at friday payroll which is a perfect example it has something for everyone. household survey and data that

is heavily revised we cannot put too much credibility on one data point. that is why we are not getting the big market reaction to this. what we are seeing is if we get consistent message across all data points, that will start bringing out the trends. that is something we have been missing in the markets the big trends we can run for a long period of time. they are not running up against conflict >> let me zoom in on euro/dollar. euro spent most of the month of may declining against the greenback. what do you pin that down to specifically more dollar side or euro side driving that weakness? where is the floor for euro/dollar? >> this is the big question across the client base we see reassessment. that has been reflected in euro/dollar. we bring back the cycle the extension from the u.s. and that

is playing on euro/dollar which is tracking differentials on both sides of the andtlantic. that is overstretched. we are seeing long demand in euro/dollar backinto the market that should support it again, we are not necessarily expecting euro/dollar to break across 110 all of a sudden, the path of the eurozone and the path is clearer. we are going to move wayaway fr the idea of euro interest rate hikes. wit we can move to monetary policy and p all of a sudden, the factors that weigh on the dollar should flush through to lead to upside we think we are in a 5 to 1 to 10 range we will bounce around for the time being >> helpful great to have a clear range there. what is the narrative for sterling at the moment normally when you talk about

higher rates for longer, that is supportive for currency. in the case of sterling and the uk economy, growth concerns are overshadowing the impact of positive rates is that your take? >> we get to a point where there is a tipping point and higher rates reduce the investment for uk assets. it starts to weigh on growth brings back the idea of the uk recession. that narrative is starting again. we have seen the choppy price action over the last two weeks where all of a sudden we are going up on bank of england expectations which were ridiculous bear in mind the leading indicators and the expectations are priced in. and the bank of england assesses the tipping point around 5% for the uk economy assuming we go below that and this is the case of the sustainable yield point and this is something we can buy into again, price action is muted and

within range and we don't see that breaking out. >> simon, we are taking you for a trip around the world. i want to ask about the yen. we had a lot of analysts on and everyone talking about the dollar/yen and expectation that the bank of japan is breaking away now we know the bank governor says it is a path of consistency with his presedecessorpredecess. has it calmed down >> it is pretty much there i think from the institutional perspective, it is the case the demand is there for long yen it is a case of when will we buy into it? we have been burned so many times before on haven properties or u.s. recession fears or monetary policy shift. it hasn't happened yet we are looking at valuations which are not cheap. bank of japan.

we still don't know what it will look like with the curve we do know that the bank will have to move at some point we are looking at the inflation data and the window of opportunity. the last thing the bank wantst do is tighten monetary policy. you have severe spillover effects in the markets >> let's complete the trip around the world and ask about emerging market currencies and what is most interesting what currencies stand out as mis mism mis-priced >> we are looking at the lira. in lira, again, it is a lot of uncertainty there. we are seeing positive developments with the move back on the framework a lot of questions how quickly that occurs and what extent the central bank has a free hand

over the spillovers. there is a big recalculation there if we shift back to the open capital market. that brings about a lot of volatility and excitement and client base. the question is what does this look like? we have to take headline by headline on that south africa is another area where political interference is playing a role and introducing volatility the fundamentals are on a slow burning track suggesting weakness is in store the central bank is looking where you get to the point of a negative feedback if they take rates too high we have a lot of economies in the emerging market where you could see that balk tance tippe aggr aggressively we are seeing options to play this over the next three months. it is a case of when, not if we want exposure to that to say,

okay, we didn't miss the boat, but not locking in short term. >> super positioning there a lot of people talking about the negative equity position of the turkish central bank problematic for the lira interesting to see there are other perspectives out there >> we think it is positive over the longer term. >> simon, thank you for joining us on the show simon harvey coming up on the program, a allies drum up support in singapore for ukraine and the next tanks will be delivered in the coming weeks more from our exclusive interview just ahead

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no wonder xfinity mobile is one of the fastest growing mobile services. you really shouldn't walk out the front door without it. switch today at xfinitymobile.com. welcome back to the show china defense minister says beijing would prefer to have a dialogue with the u.s. and any conflict could spell unbearable disaster the comments at the annual security event in singapore came hours after the near collision with the chinese and u.s. war ships in international waters in taiwan speaking after the event after

the u.s. question for military talks was turned down, dialogue is not a reward, but necessity the u.s. described the chinese activities around the taiwan straits as risky and concerning. ukraine is ready to launch the much anticipated counter offensive against russia, but president volodymyr zelenskyy warned success to take time. the u.s. prevented a major offensive in donetsk speaking to cnbc, manufacturers are working around the clock to make sure ukraine gets the next supply of tanks tsoon >> our tanks are delivered to ukraine. the next will be next month and then the beginning of the year all of the tanks have to be

maintained and repaired. >> and the german weapons manufacturers and suppliers are coordinated and they know where they stand in terms of the leopard tanks and in terms of the stockpiles and ready to deliver? >> they are on the path. they are doing everything which is possible. t they are coordinating. >> also delivery of the f-16 fighter jets is significant for ukraine. that is a big announcement that came from the g7 let's look at how things are shaping up on the first trading day of the week. a mixed bag. less positive price action we had in the u.s. on friday and overnight in asia. you can see the main out performer is the ftse 100 which is up .50% this is on the back of the bounce in commodities.

let's get a look at u.s. futures and see how wall street is poised to open. we are looking at a similar picture to here in the europe. a mixed bag. s&p and nasdaq opening slightly lower. dow jones industrial average is looking to add to last week's gain we had a strong finish to the week stateside after the nfp number finished to the upside. there were some mixed signals, but the headline, obviously, surprising very hsharply. the debt ceiling saga behind us and vix falling to the lowest level since 2020 that is it for the show. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. bears breaking loose new numbers on how split the market is becoming. a tidifferent story with te and why the sector rally shows no signs of slowing down. the tension shifting from nvidia to cupertino. apple is expected to unveil the first product since the apple watch. energy markets up ending this time saudi arabia putting the squeeze on oil