tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC June 9, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters and here is the "five@5. stocks reversing course after the s&p did something for the first time in nearly 250 trading days. and still in the red of the producer prices plunge and has a long way to go for post-covid recovery. a double whammy for a sector and why tesla is the ev charging standard and mark zuckerberg looks to reassure shareholders and staff
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after the a.r. splash. it is friday, june 9th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's kickoff with the check of the stock futures and the s&p coming off the highest close of the year look at the red. futures reversing a bit this morning. off the lows, but still in the red. nasdaq creeping higher while i was talking. you can see futures are under pressure this morning. mixed to flat. we are checking the bond market. bond market movement as we get closer to the fed meeting next week we are seeing the movement up 15 basis points since the start of the month. elevated yields on the 2-year treasury looking at energy, of course, with oil oil under pressure reversing to the positive.
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up .30% for wti. brent crude at $76.25. natural gas in the red turning back to stocks s&p is exiting the longest bear market since 1948 after closing above the threshold yesterday. it could be in store for better days according to the dow jones industrial average, one month after exiting the bear market, it moves 2%. climbing 9% one year on the exit for more, let's welcome in vance howard vance, thank you for being here. >> good morning, frank >> we are spelling out s&p out of bear market territory what does that say to you? >> i think we're in a new bull market, frank. we were chatting yesterday
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the trend is up. we went positive three months ago. we have been entering the market at a rapid pace. if you look at the russell 1000 and 2000 and 3000, this was faang driven and this is a new bull market and you should be invested. >> vance, some investors are concerned of the narrowness of the rally. russell out performing in june we will show you the chart that performance is something people are paying attention to today. what opportunities are you seeing what is the upside move in small caps >> there is broadening out in the market there are wonderful small caps that are breaking into 52-week highs. smci is a stock in the super micro computer industry. it will benefit from a.i a lot of stocks picking up steam
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and broadening out you know, you can look at the bank stocks. bank of new york mellon. it was a beneficial in the negative banking stocks. when the bull market starts to unfold, it will lift all ships and all sectors up. >> i want to go back to financials you are seeing opportunities in financials any other names or are you looking at the regional banks which have been beaten down? >> i think there is a ton of opportunities in the regional banks. frank, 70% of the loans come from riegional banks. they are vital to the economy and what is going on in the future of the credit and loans and small businesses being able to stay alive. you look at bk which is bank of
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new york mellon and bank of america. bank of america at a.p.e that is cheap as far as value with the banking stock some banking stocks pulled back to the point they are not a surprise. >> the kre would you put money into the regional banks >> frank, i would not play regional banks i would play with kre. you have a broader basket. if you have something unexpected, you have a lot of diversification. your odds are higher of making money with less risk >> vance howard. thank you for being here >> thank you, frank. time for the check of the top corporate stories with pippa s stephens >> and china's producer index in
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may fell 4.6%. the steepest year on year drop since 2016 when it fell 7%. this is worse than april with the prices falling 3.6%. consumer prices rose 0.2%. general motors striking a deal with tesla giving the detroit automaker customers access to the 12,000 strong as super charger network. on "fast money" last night, mary barra said this is the next step. >> ford, general motors and that's all now on the charger, every american automaker goes a long way to getting the right standard for the united states i hope others will follow. i think this is really important because from a general motors perspective, this doubles the amount of chargers thatthe gm customers will access starting
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in spring of 2024. >> the partnership follows a similar one announced by ford last month and is putting pressure on pure play ev charging stocks like charge point and evgo. and carvana shares would come in ahead of estimates the stock closed more than 50% higher yesterday, frank, up 400% it this year with interest above 50% on short interest. >> big move for carvana. interesting to see this move pippa, thank you see you in a few minutes a lot more on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. first, tracking the u.s. manufacturing boom following the passage of the inflation reduction act and the stocks that should be on your shopping list. former vice fed chair roger ferguson on whether or not the
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u.s. could engineer a soft landing frmt ndg. and new trouble this morning for binance and coinbase we have a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ what if buildings could tell you how they could be more efficient? i'm listening. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone.
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incentives have had a huge impact up to $150 billion invested across more than 40 factories since the bill passed in august. this includes from solar to wind to battery plants. the facilities are across the country and we are seeing a concentration in the southeast and rustbelt as the map from american clean power shows some calling the region the battery belt there are few reasons for these new manufacturing hot spots. including proximity to the expertise and infrastructure of the steel industry access to nearby suppliers and business climates as well as historically cheaper labor announcements includes the lithium processing in south carolina and the battery factory in georgia as well as the first solar in alabama and existing factories in ohio. >> pippa, so far, we have seen announcements. how far does it take us with the
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clean energy asaspects? >> this is big no question we would not see this number of factories if it was not for the legislation. it say sis a starting point. these facilities will not come online for a number of years we are now focused on imports because they are covering the carrots in the i.r.a. to jump start the manufacturing. the industry report on the solar market out yesterday showed solar was 53% generating in q1 there is a huge amount of growth behind it. for now, we are still dependent on imports >> that's an impressive number we have a way to go. pippa, see you later on. thank you. let's dive in deeper with sean
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morgan with evercore >> thank you for having me >> pippa was breaking down the i.r.a. let's start with sectors energy how could this benefit what areas could it benefit? >> so far, investors looked heavily into the themes of the production tax credit as opposed to the i.t.c in the long run, you have a long-term uncapped subsidy in the p.t.c. and i.t.c in terms of the production tax credit, the winners are the manufacturers. look at the u.s. landscape for solar. first solar is the only scaled up player. as pippa noted, most production is done abroad the question now is how much of foreign production, asian, will shift and will we see supply chains start to grow in the wake
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of the i.r.a.? that is the hope of the government that is the base case it will attract new capital. >> you are seeing first solar is a winner, but a broader tailwind for the solar industry what about oil and gas >> the i.r.a. was not particularly focused on oil and gas as much aside from carbon capture and sequestration could be a potential medium-term winner the long tail of the clean energy is the hydrogen side. green hydrogen will win out over the 30-year period over blue hydrogen >> the wind industry will benefit. >> wind provides the generation and i think you have seen a dual track. part of the reason you see so
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much wind and solar is it goes back to the obama administration of t administration the other thing those two types of power generation enjoys is it is not the variable costs of getting minerals out of the ground we could eventually see that extended to the hydrogen market. that's really the long-term problem for the oil and gas industry it will be a long term bridge. >> let's talk about domestic manufacturing. does the i.r.a. change your outlook with changes made in the united states? >> it will be a growth driver for u.s. production which is essentially not really a material player in terms of
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manufacturing relative to consumption of solar i think what is interesting is the guidance that came out recently from treasury as to what percentage of the components on the cost basis for u.s. production needed to be made in the u.s. it was about 40% that will leave a lot of ability for foreign manufacturers with vertical integration outside of the u.s. to decide the cost in the production that will lead to a higher amount of foreign content making in and getting domestic. >> sean morgan, thank you for your time. we appreciate it >> thank you thank you for having me. news alert wall street journal reporting that congressional democrats planning to introduce a bill to overall the debt ceiling process. that expected to hit the flool to -- floor today.
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this is equal to taking the u.s. economy hostage. we will have more on the story as it develops. coming up on "worldwide exchange," mark zuckerberg is looking to reassure shareholders and his staff after the apple splash and he is taking a jab at the $3,500 headset along the way. stay with us more on "worldwide exchange" coming up.
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exchange." pressure continue for binance and coinbase following the s.e.c. lawsuit moody's is lower the outlook from negative to unstable after the magnitude of the s.e.c. charges. binance said they will no longer use u.s. dollars on the platform as early as next week. that hurdle will eliminate the ability to do business in the united states. cnbc tech reporter mackenzie sigalos is joining us live good morning >> reporter: good morning, frank. big money is exiting crypto. here in prague, the focus is left on markets and price moves and more on the developers developing the systems like ethereum and eu groundbreaking moves on crypto regulation and places where generative a.i.
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intersects with finance. earlier this week, i was in amsterdam for the flagship conference where there was talk about the general slowdown happening in the sector and how companies are cutting back spend significantly because they are not seeing a return on in inve investment you have backers reeling from the dying slump in technology and softer consumer spending and once richly valued finteches suffered you have a $50 billion valuation of 50% discount to the last round. check out this with the 15% drop of internal valuation according to the start up news site. when you walked into the venue in amsterdam, it was easy to see the trend with companies dominating the floor and startups were nowhere to be
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found, frank >> i see you are out there and you have your finger on the pulse. i want to ask about the fintech landscape in europe. it is more disruptive than here in the u.s any talk about that this week? >> reporter: we are seeing the dynamic where fintech in europe is forcing big banks to offer for budgeting control and contactless payment everywhere more digital disruption than in america. that is partly due to open banking and likes are now commonplace after a lot of banks fought to quash reforms. >> mackenzie sigalos live in prague always great to see you. let's check on the headlines. nbc's phillip mena is here >> good to see you, frank. it is a top story in america former president trump is yet again on the receiving end of the criminal indictment.
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nbc news verified the statement on social media he has been indicted by the federal grand jury in the jack smith investigation into the handling of classified documents. sources confirm it includes seven charges and one related to the espionage act an t -- act. this is the second indictment since april. he posted to truth social saying he was innocent and dismissed it as another hoax. in other news, parts of the east are waking up to another day of unhealthy air as clouds from forest fires drift south. air quality alerts issued in new york state and connecticut and new jersey and pennsylvania and indiana andparts of ohio and michigan. finally, as ukraine launches the counter offensive against russia, bloomberg reports that the pentagon is preparing another $2 billion air package
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to the nation. that is it from here, frank. >> thank you, phillip. still on deck on "worldwide exchange," roger ferguson is standing by to layout a critical week for the markets as the central banks preparing for the next rate decision we will ask if a pause is all but certain. if youisusch ms , eck us out on spotify and other podcast apps "worldwide exchange" will be back after this. dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers flexible spending limits that adapt with his business. he used his card to furnish a new exam room, and everyone was happy. built for dr. petsworth business. built for your business. amex business.
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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. investors closing out a choppy trading week now looking at risk. futures pointing to pressure at the open. and pause or no pause? investors turning attention to the fed policy meeting next week former vice chair roger ferguson is laying out what they may have up its sleeve. breakthrough in a.i. that is from mark zuckerberg he is pulling back the curtain on what the company is working on in the white hot space. it is friday, june 9th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back i'm frank holland. let's pick up with the check on u.s. stock futures with the nasdaq on the edge of snapping
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the longest weekly win streak since 2020 nasdaq creeping up in positive territory. s&p and dow very slightly in the red. we are watching the bond markets. yields creeping higher we are seeing the 10-year treasury at 3.74 it started the month at 3.6. elevated yield on the 2-year treasury as well a story we have been talking about. a lot of people thought th yields would come down we want to talk about oil. oil on pace for a down week. right now it is up .50% for wti. $71.65 brent crude is up $76.25 natural gas down 1%. time for the check on the action in area and europe with julianna tatelbaum she is standing by in the london newsroom great to see you, julianna >> frank, it is wonderful to see you. here in europe, we are off to a
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sluggish start here is the picture. it is mixed with the direction of travel. contained at the index level we are seeing heavy selling in the chemicals sector this morning. one name has stood out in the uk croda. ftse 100 is down this morning with that chemical company down more than 13%. the issue of a profit warning saying they are seeing consumer care business down double digit from last year in crop protection, another area for the company, it started out well, but the business is experiencing a rapid customer destocking that is weighing on the sector that is the underperforming part of the market. green in the ftse mib and spain. that is up 17 points in asia, here is the picture different trade from what we see in europe. a clear positive signal. hang seng up and the nikkei up as well.
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the mainland chinese composite is up as factory prices fell in may. the fastest decline in seven years. consumer prices , on the other hand, rose 2%, but fell on a monthly basis. this comes in contrast to the rest of the world which is struggling with price pressure in china frank. >> always great to see you julianna tatelbaum turning back to wall street in the u.s investors bracing for the inflation report on tuesday and wednesday with the fed decision on rates interest rate traders pricing in a nearly 80% chance the fed pauses the rate hiking cycle the. t -- cycle the hopes they pull out of the bear market.
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joining me now is former vice chair roger ferguson of roger, great to see you. >> thank you, frank. >> what is the outlook for the meeting? a pause or hawkish pause or rate hike >> i'm not as convinced as the market that the pause is baked in you say 80% expectation of a pause. i think it is a 50/50 close call most importantly, the big picture, if they do pause, as we see with other central banks, that does not mean they are over i think the market should brace for a fed continue to be hiking if this happens to be a pause. i think the pause here is really a closer call than the market expects. >> roger, that is a contrarian opinion. i think some people believe we may see a cut later on in the year what is the sense of a pause an
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another hike >> it is the data that is already out. markets continue to be tight, labor markets. 1.7 to 1.8 jobs for every unemployed person. higher than the norm wage continues to go up in terms of what is measured in the big numbers and what i hear anecdotally from fellow ceos overall, the picture is one of inflation and inflation pressure that are higher and stickier than the 2% number that the fed has been aiming for. i think the data which is here is telling us more hikes on the way. >> it is interesting to get the inflation report the day before the decision i want to ask about another macro thing. what is the outlook on the possibility the u.s. avoids recession? goldman sachs finding 70% chance we avoid one, but you look at china with economic issues and
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eurozone is in recession what is different for the united states >> a couple of things might be giving hope for a soft landing one is consumers are robust. there is what is called a wealth effect equities have done well in the first half of the year as i indicated, wage growth is expected to be relatively strong those are the things that are positive for us. i think the things that might lean to a slowdown and short and shallow recession is the fed with more work to do and possibly raising rates and force us into the short and hallow recession. i'm in the camp recession is a possibility. short and shallow, one hopes of the le-- hopes >> is that the same thing as a
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soft landing do you think that is priced in with an economic downturn and not a full-blown recession >> yes, i think that is a possibility. i've seen some economists throw in a new phrase talking about a growth recession which is growth underneath potential, but not dipping into the negative territories. we are now making fine distinction distinctions growth recession short and shallow. they all have the same feel which is whether or not you get a technical recession which is less important than the fact that growth is below potential which is what is called for to get inflation back down closer to 2% target >> you mentioned the markets should prepare for another hike this year. when do you see that hike happening? i know you said the data is already out there. we are seeing inflation decline. the fed mentioned the banking crisis is something that is
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disinflationary. what will happen later that will give them the confidence to hike again? >> look, i think we have seen it in a couple of other central banks that were early pausers. bank of canada and royal bank of australia both took a pause and now returned to a hiking process. the answer is that the labor market here continues to be very tight. wages, which feed into service sector inflation are things the fed is still looking at. you know, it may well be that one or two more hikes may be baked in i do not expect them to cut later this year as the market seems to expect. >> roger, always great to have you here appreciate your ininsight. let's look at the top stories and headlines from meta's all hands on deck meeting. pippa is back with those
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>> frank, a lot of headlines from meta. mark zuckerberg touting incredible breakthroughs the company has seen in a.i. ambitions. zuckerberg and other meta detailing corporate a.i. and how the technology can help the 3d world. the service for instagram users to modify photos with text prompts and share in the app store feature. meta plans to include the ability on for users to engage with sophisticated a.i. powered chat chatbot as a form of entertainment. zuckerberg touching on plans to get meta back on track after the layoffs in recent months zuckerberg telling workers he wants to quote use the period that's going to be a bit more stable to evolve and rebuild our
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culture. zuckerberg also touching on apple vision pro the device did not present breakthroughs in technology that meta hasn't already explored and how userswill use the device i not the one that i want. a lot of news coming from the meeting. >> i think we will talk about this mixed reality we're supposed to call it? pippa, thank you coming up here on "worldwide exchange," labor problems with fresh supply chain issues at key ports in the u.s. and showing no signs of easing. we talk to one analyst about the stock seeing a direct impact from the contract standoff as we head to break, big money movers we start with a downhill slope for vail resorts some resorts closing earlier due to warmer weather and lack of
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terrain. food and beverage still not back in the green. and docusign is reporting strong quarterly results, but it is seeing smaller deal sizes across the business as customers review budgets. shares of tesla posting the tenth straight session of gains. tesla closing yesterday at the highest level since october on the back of strong sales data from china don't miss the cnbc interview with tesla investor cathie wood at 7:30 a.m. eastern today "worldwide exchange" will be back in a moment
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long as nine days to be unloaded joining me with more insight is amit mehrotra from deutsche bank good to see you, amit. >> good morning. >> give us a sense how big of a deal is the disr disruption it is a work slowdown. is it a big deal just overall and what does it mean for the broader economy? >> i think it is unfortunate there is no doubt about it being an unfortunate event this is nothing like the back up we saw in the height of the pandemic nor the slowdown and backlog from 2015 when the west coast ports have a similar situation. the bottom line, frank, demand and freight ports today are weak with there is a backlog on the west coast, but the demand environment is nowhere near where it was the last two years.
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while this negotiation and how it is evolving is unfortunate, but we think it is probably the best time to happen given demand is weak. we believe a deal will get done. according to trade magazines or articles yesterday in los angeles and oakland is back to normal scheduling. it seems the problems are centered on seattle. the bottom line is we think the deal is going to get done relatively quickly this will pass and we are waiting for freight to improve there are longer term implications here that are negative for the west coast ports. generally, as it relates to the movement of freight across our networks, i'm not too concerned. it will recover quickly. >> interesting you say that. we saw similar disruption around easter time and a few weeks ago.
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overall, you are saying if it was going to happen, this is the best time. i want to pull on the thread saying it is not great for the u.s. west coast ports. what does it mean for the u.s. west coast ports >> we here at deutsche bank are hearing a lot about the reorganization of how ports come into the country it started with the expansion of the panama canal many years ago. also, because of the inconsistency of the negotiations between west coast ports and pacific maritime association. we are seeing market share divert away from the u.s. west coast ports to the west coast of canada and also the east coast and port of houston as well. all of these ports are making infrastructure improvements.
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the bottom line is there is a restructuring of the imports >> certainly something to watch, amit that makes me ask about the buy rating on stocks buy rating on the big player on the west coast port. a hold on union pacific and jb hunt huge players what is the long-term outlook on those companies? >> right now, we are in a weak freight environment. we believe that it is darkest before dawn in the transportation landscape the transportation sector is out performing 800 basis points. we are about as bad as it can get right now. there is one direction of travel here which is positive we're quite positive generally on the outlook for transportation stocks. jb hunt is a buy rating. it has huge growth secular
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union pacific is in the new ceo search night swift is a great trucking company in the middle of the weak environment right now of the i think the markets at this time are trying to be forward thinking we are looking for the outlook and the circumstances six months from now without a doubt, it will be better than today. >> amit, thank you for being here i appreciate it. time for the morning call sheet. we check on the few of the upgrades and down grades by firms you know pivotal raising netflix to $535 a share from $425. the firm says netflix represents a tech growth story given the position to generate solid revenue cash flow growth in the potential global recession requirement. wells fargo upgrading adobe over
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the improving competitive position a best in class margin profile shares of adobe up 2%. and citi downgrading target to buy. shares are likely to fall further showing a give back situation. shares down 1%. coming up, the one word that every investor needs to know today and patrick fruzzetti tells us one stock bubbling up his spirits. and cnbc is sharing stories of corporate leaders with you on pride month. here is our latest >> we know so much attack and hate is in the community happening in lots of places. grindr going public in november speaks to positive things of the we are celebrated on wall street and going public and the support
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since going public is fantastic. here is the company built by gay people for gay people where the ceo is gay and married with children grindr board has nine members in total. six of whom are gay or lesbian or trans speaks to the testament of the company want more from your vitamins? get more with nature's bounty. from the first-ever triple action sleep supplement... to daily digestive support... to more wellness solutions every day. get more with nature's bounty. it starts with a grill. but it becomes so much more. an extension of your home. not just a weekend retreat,
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at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." live shots from london, hong kong and new york and washington skies are clearer this morning it is beginning to clear up. beautiful start to the day in washington, d.c. cloudy skies welcome back to "worldwide exchange." it is time for the wex wrap-up. ev charging stops like charging point and evgo under pressure
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after the deal with tesla to give access to the network next year china out with the data overnight showing struggles to rebound from covid lockdowns the producer index in may fell 4.6% the steepest year on year drop since 2016 pressure continuing to build for coinbase moody's lowering from negative to stable hiring the impact of the s.e.c. charges congressional democrats are planning to introduce a bill to overhaul the debt ceiling process. the journal saying backers argue that using faith in the country's credit as leverage is irresponsible. and fda voting today to give full approval of the alzheimer's drug from eisai. shares of carvana looking to a 50% surge after the second
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quarter results would come in ahead of earlier estimates carvana up 5.5%. turning back to the markets for the trading day ahead. looking at the futures movement in the futures. nasdaq in the red. right now, the dow would open up 60 points lower. s&p is lower the s&p is fighting to hold on to gains and notching the first full week win streak since august for more on the markets, let's bring in patrick fruzzetti from hightower. >> good morning, frank. >> what do you make of the futures? thes s nasdaq dipping positive. the s&p in the red after it moved higher yesterday what do you make of all this >> this is a fragile market. entire return has been driven by seven stocks in the s&p. the rest of the market has been
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flat i think that say sign of the fragile market and we have many things to think about in the months ahead not only $1$1 trillion of u.s. treasury, but weakening consumer. >> i want to talk about student loan payments. they will restart soon the average payment is $300 a person you have seen data and staff that may be higher it is an increase in money that people have to pay out and student loan payers are 20 to 30 to 40 and 50 what sectors do you see student loan being repaid having an impact >> sure. i'm avoiding, you know, consumer discretionary stocks that are expensive right now. lululemon or canadian goose. names like that face a lot of
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headwinds in the months ahead. when you think about that, weakening consumer and student loan base. when i look at someone with a degree and the average student loan payment is higher than $300 once these payments restart. like you said, these consumers are from 20 to 50 years old. these are the folks which have been spending in the economy that is a headwind more broadly for the economy and those expensive discretion discretion could be in trouble. >> with that in mind, what is the wex word of the day? >> i say energized we could see more stats on the energy market later today. we get the recount i think the energy market is something to pay attention to. >> is there any particular part? we had pippa here talking about
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alternative energy and movement in the oil markets is there one area in particular investors should focus on? >> i'm still focused on oil and g gas. that is one area you should pay attention to we saw the saudis cut production or announce a further production cut this week. that will have an impact on the market >> any other parts oil and gas. obviously that has been volatile the move last year with headwinds this year. any other parts of the energy market to put money to work? >> i still like infrastructure if we are going to look at onshoring and reshoring across the market, we have to look at infrastructure export of lng and other products in a market where supply chains will be diversified in the years ahead where you want to look at energy infrastructure. >> what about a stock pick patrick, give us your pick
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>> we talked about theconsumer earlier. the potentially weakening consumer and headwinds for the economy. i like diageo. good economy and bad economy they are in the spirits business those products consumed in both situations i think it is attractive it has been weaker in this post-covid normalization environment. inflation pressure of a businesslike this with pricing power and you think about inflationary environment these companies invested in inventory for years. i think there is a lot of value there. >> diageo. maker of johnny walker and don julio. patrick fruzzetti, great to see you. thank you for the insight. that will do it for us on
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good morning if you weren't paying attention, welcome to the new bull market for the s&p. that index up 20% now from the october lows we'll show you what's moving right now at just under 4,300. gm is joining ford in tesla's charging network we have an interview with long-time tesla bull cathie wood. and binance says it is cutting access to the system after the u.s. s.e.c. crackdown. it's friday, june 9th, 2023.
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"squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. yes, it is friday. here we go take a look quickly at the u.s. equities at this hour. slight decline dow futures off 65 the s&p down 5 nasdaq off 4 of course, this all comes after the gains for the s&p that marked the start of the new bull run. officially up 20% from the october lows as joe mentioned. we will watch that closely 20.04% right now if you are looking at the tre treasury yields, the 10-year treasury at
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