and whether we turn the page on the banking crisis. in the meantime, zimmer is with us taking us to the other side of the street, this morning, on why the ingredients for a boom market are not yet.

:fear of missing out rally. we will talk to one of the managers and find out what is missing. he says, the fundamental. we are making a run at some 52 highs. the dow jones is playing along, today. not a lot of micro data but next week will change all of that. next week will be huge. you have the consumer price index on tuesday, wednesday, the wholesale inflation which a lot of will say lead the fed decision, announcement, news conference, stock which is very important at this time. you should see that rise in terms of terminal rate expectation. thursday, meeting, friday, and of japan meeting and there's a lot of focus there on what kind of messages you will get with

inflation everywhere and other banks were going in different directions when it comes to finance. >> from kroger, oracle and between crm and home depot. it is interesting that the d of a is getting forceful in language, this morning, acknowledging the technical blue market that we will be in. sabina has been cautious. >> bye bye, there. and it starts to feel like a boom market, 20% off but if you look at a lot of the parts of the market, they are still down, 10% to 20% from their highs. it is about an economy that is looking like a soft landing. the curve is now showing forward until 2025. remember, it is getting pushed out and it is getting pushed out. that is why the data is going to be so key. and the earnings, too. the s&p rallied 20% from

the most recent lows as positive sentiment is growing around the streets. the rally has lagged >> reporter: the more likely direction of surprise is still positive. and you have credit suites, jonathan galloped saying the increase does support some better multiples and finally, wolf with a simple quote and that is that the bears are capitulating but those that want to stay in the bears cannot one to one import data point and hat is that one third of the s&p is still in the bare market. speaking of which, let's ring in our senior markets commentator. at least survey the current landscape. >> i don't get caught up in this sort of magical 20% as a definition of a bull market that i point out that it is a process and not a moment. if we go back to last over, the weight of the about it is that was a really plausible low, a good washout and you had a lot

of conditions that were pretty climatic but you had to prove it so gains through the end of the year. in january, we got this huge momentum, a very broad rally, the kind of thing that only fires near the beginning, typically, at the strong upturn and at the end of the first quarter, you got the moving average is moving higher so the trend moved in your favor. in other words, a lot of things have to fall into place for you can say it seems like a whole trend. if it is a market, it is somewhat of an underachieving one both in the magnitude and dissipation and the number of socks that have really driven it. i don't know how this it is to say we are now in a full market except to say that the pullbacks have been contained. you are seeing some belief among investors and some capitulation among the more embarrassed investors and some excitement around ai that is creating a little more of an open-ended, forward-looking

story as opposed to just maybe the recession is going to wait a little longer to get here. all of that kind of falling into place. i do think the market has built a nice cushion for itself even if it is not racing off to the highs. remember, stilling more than 10% gain. >> just to get you riled up, mike, i pointed out that the fed balance sheet has increased a little bit. they are trying to shrink it but because of the banking crisis and all of the emergency loan, you have seen it at an elevated level, $8.4 trillion. i heard that that is bullish for the market. because the market lows liquidity and i know it is not traditional to me or liquidity like that because it is just loans but it is an important factor. >> we are at peak levels on the balance sheet and the market is at a low. i never wanted to draw a real linear donation ship between those two things in terms of

the actual dollars tracking it on the balance sheet going in but i think in general what you can say is writing fed and not to be hiding the tape. if you are bearish, you are kind of fighting the tape a little bit even though the numbers are lacking in your kind of fighting the fed a little bit on some level assuming they are close to their target and anticipating they are continuing to shrink the balance sheet once we get the treasury back up. i think that is a way to think of it as opposed to the fed enabling all of this by keeping the balance sheet large. >> thank you. despite all of the bullish sentiment, right now, our next guest does argue that the ingredients are not complete. joining us for fidelity invest, the direct. it is great to have you. >> happy friday. >> you agree that the lows are probably in what do you need to see on top of that? >> my sense is that it is too

late to be bearish and too early to be bullish but the pieces are starting to fall into place and 20% is an arbitrary number and it is only the essence the in excess of 20%, still languishing in the middle of the range. microcap still at the bottom of the range. i don't want to get too technical but if you think about the three things we need, we need an earnings recovery, me the fed to maybe not exhibit but at least begun and we need market to confirm that an early cyclical market because generally those do not happen without broad participation in the latter is very much related to the two former, right? so i think the fed is nowhere close to debiting but maybe closer to the end of the rate cycle and when you think about the natural rate which is about a 1% real rate, add a couple of percent for inflation and you are maybe a 4%.

that is going to be 5.5%, i presume, that is significantly above the neutral rate so i think you can argue that the head is close to being done but we need the earnings side and here, actually, there are some promising signs because the earnings estimate revisions are now flipping to positive and the drift of earnings estimates for 2023 are becoming less negative. so you have to kind of look on the surface for derivatives but there is some treatment and i think the market is kind of riding on that even though it is not getting that satisfaction. >> are you willing to wait with them? >> i don't want to be sure this market. obviously, we had a very bad year, last year. and we have been in the trading range for a year, for that moment to, we have been going sideways and that is a long time for the market to be in limbo. the market generally goes up 10 percent year-over-year, 60%

over time so for the market to sit around for a year, it takes you far below that trend which makes sense because we were kind of in a bubble in 2021 but we are getting to the point where the market will want to declare itself and the consensus i think is kind of short. a lot of people are waiting for that elusive recession to start and for that shoe to drop and it is not dropping, at least not yet. >> and you think it is not going to happen? >> i often have this conversation with our client and when people hear the word recession, it is a very triggering thing because the only recession over the last several decades was a financial crisis which was a perfect storm but most recessions don't look like that so i always tell them, if you are going to trade on the recession, you need to know where it starts, how long it lasts and what price.

>> but isn't there an average of 20% decline on the market? >> and we saw 28% last year. oftentimes, the bare market is already over before the recession starts. my point is, we could be in a rolling recession, manufacturing at 46 or 47 so there are pockets of what is. we saw the bank tremors, and recession likely is coming somewhere later this year into early next year but the market always looks ahead, not always correctly but it always looks ahead. >> it sounds like that if we did get one, you would want to buy into it giving you a refresh, right? >> if it is a garden-variety recession and not a financial crisis, done hiking and would start listening rates which would good with the banks feeling that pressure.

if it is a garden-variety recession, i think the market is able to look past that valley as long as the promise is easier liquidity on the other side. >> they are telling clients to do what? not chased stock market did go where instead? >> to have a diversified portfolio. i know it sounds boring. 60-40 did not work last year but the beside especially in a recession is pretty compelling. you have a 3.5% on the 10 year and a 5% on the short end and i think the 40 will do its job especially now that the market is comfortably positive. >> that is a good place to leave it for now. we will watch these revisions as they happen. when we come back, robin vince with the company at 20% of the world said assets. also, netflix up 30% but

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with qualifying internet. welcome back. stops on pays for 11 straight days of games and that would be one of the longest winning streaks for that stock on record. the company striking a charging deal with gm taking stocks down

including charge points and blink charging as the country is settling in on some kind of standard for the industry. >> it is kind of services multiple business. the market has arrived, the s&p higher at about 20%. can that last? our next guest touches more than 1/5 of the world's assets, nearly $50 trillion in assets. joining us now is the bank president and ceo. it is good to have you, robin. welcome. what are you seeing? do they backup the kind of action we have een in the stocks, lately? >> as we sit here and we are seeing the touch points that you have described, sort of 239 years old, today.

>> today is alexander hamilton day? >> the first stock ever listed on the new york stock exchange. there is a bit of a homecoming for us, right now. i was in europe two or three years ago and one of the things i was struck by what i was talking to ceos in the region was just how interested they are at investing in the united states. when you think about some of the challenges they have had in europe in terms of energy security and the attractiveness of the labor pool, the vibrancy of our economy, it is very attractive to them and as we look through what is happening and look to what happens down the road with the us economy, i think there is reason to be optimistic. >> you are seeing pent-up demands from foreign investors. all that we are hearing about is japan, india, a little bit, mexico.

>> when you look at the fundamentals of what the u.s. has to offer, it has ingredients and foreign investors see that as attractive. we are a large issuance of service provider so we have that direct dialogue with companies thinking about the decision of where it is they will actually make an investment and innovation, the u.s. is such a part of the innovation story, 40% of our revenues come from outside of the u.s. as we are a global fund. as an example, just this week, we launched our new wealth management infrastructure platform which is helping across our $2.3 trillion wealth assets helping advisors be more efficient and to be able to manage the relationships with clients and spend more time. >> is there a i in it? spector absolutely is. a.i. is another aspect of innovation and another opportunity to give

leverage. kind of a copilot helping them along the way. they get to spend time doing what they want to do focused on their clients. we are focused on helping them become more productive. >> for a while, this was the u.s. saying because they were avoiding all of these u.s. case scenarios. >> i think there is a difference in terms of people looking at the next presence. there is a group of people focused on that but we are ot in the predicting business. we are in the preparing business and helping our clients prepare business so we try to look through to what is coming and what are the trends in the market and how can we help our clients navigate those types of environments? that is where the product innovation comes from. another good example in the united states, real-time payments which is an important evolution of the payment system and we are helping to take that and turn it into something.

today, we have a provider of services, a provider that helps to bridge the gap in the united states. couples with our payment platform and all of the touch that we have, we can help them go about their business more effectively. >> would you argue that clients are interested in taking on more risk or not? because we talk about the consumer and we are prepared for a softer second half, let's say. >> we are in the operation busy this and we encourage all of our clients to get ready and be resilient to different things. if there is one lesson we have learned from markets over the dorsal the last remote, it is that you really do have to be resilient and being resilient is a commercial attribute. we have been focused on that for a while and now it is not just economic resilient and take a logical resilience but balance, as well, if you are a bank.

>> it was the morning of the first republican field and he said, we are putting this chapter of bank charges behind us which turned out to be a pretty good call. you have a good view into the banking system. what sort of stresses are there if any and what to expect as far as credit construction? >> one of the things we learned from the great financial crisis 15 years ago is that more capitol and more equity make a difference. that matters is one of the most resilient in the usn banking sector. that resilience is something that has come from all of the investment in balance sheet capitol, liquidity and i think we will see that ripple through a little bit more to the rest of the industry but that matters because being prepared for the fact that i don't know if rates are going to stay at 5% or if they are going to go to 6%, you have to be prepared

for what can happen and that is what being prepared in business is all about. >> what happens is if we go to 6%? >> it will continue to put a premium on good asset management. 23 years ago, rates were at excellent 5%. this is not unprecedented territory. sure, we haven't seen that are over 40 years but it is not like it cannot be the case. even though we would not call that as the outcome, absolutely, i would recommend that people be prepared for it. inflation is an important thing to be tackled. >> do you think they should keep raising rates? the impact, people are worried about what happened. >> the debate that they are going to have on tuesday and wednesday, are they going to carry on? ultimately, navigating through this, that is what they are

doing and we will need to tackle that job. we need to make sure that inflation doesn't continue to be a real issue. >> happy father's day to you and alexander hamilton. in the meantime, another development in the jeffrey epstein lawsuit. >> reporter: we are now getting a response from j.p. morgan. you saw this filing which we just reported on a short time ago, attorneys for jane doe in the epstein lawsuit are requesting that jamie dimond come back for an additional deposition along with other j.p. morgan executives. no amount of time on the record would change the fact that jamie never met the man, never worked with the man and wishes in hindsight that the man would never have been a client in the firm.

they are requesting that jamie dimond and two other executives come back. that is because j.p. morgan turned over key documents late in the case and did not have a chance to ask about those key documents. we will see whether those documents turned out to be key or not key. ultimately, the j.p. morgan brushing is often saying ultimately that the case is what it is and they are confident that they have the right side of it. up next, morgan stanley weighs in on the new market enthusiasm and why this is nothing but a fear of missing out rally. ups calls this a top idea out of earnings season saying 20% holdback last month offers an in an interesting entry point. nna.

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welcome back. former president donald trump is said to be arraigned tuesday after being indicted on seven charges. he is accused of mishandling 100 classified documents that were discovered at his mar-a-lago result in florida. one telling nbc news that he plans to come out fighting. the justice department on charges against two russian nationals allegedly involved in the cryptocurrency exchange. the court documents claim they conspired. they are accused of using the money to set up a virtual current the change exchange. horse racing will resume at

new york's belmont park today because of a significant improvement in air quality. they are keeping a close eye on the conditions but the final leg of that triple crown is expected to move forward on saturday. another downgrade for target. why analysts say they have further to fall. > pivotal, getting more bullish on netflix. we will break that down after the break. this is dr. arnold t. petsworth, he's the owner of petsworth vetworld. business was steady, but then an influx of new four-legged friends changed everything. dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card,

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welcome back. now we will look at some of the calls grabbing our attention and wall street's attention, this morning.:grading the stock to neutral, $130. they think that these cells have peaked and have further to fall. the cash flow indicator down to 7% but projected to fall to 1.6%. the senior retailer joins us to talk this one out. from the street, from the analyst, from investors. how much do you think it has to do with the fact that they have caught up in the culture wars? >> we have to ask because that

is something ever present. i am not sure how we can really attribute to that. i think it is really important for us to remember that more than half of target cells are discretionary. they leaned toward home and apparel and that is something that is softer, right now. we have booked up on a lot of that coming out of the pandemic. we don't need that as much, right now. also, target has had some pretty strong momentum even before the pandemic and was one of the winners by most accounts. with sales up so high for so long, at some point, maybe it makes natural sense to see some give back and to see some pullback but i understand what you are saying about the cultural wars. passing legislation about the bathrooms saying, you an use whatever bathroom you feel most comfortable. and there was a bit of a sales

and traffic fall up to that point. again, it is hard to know if that was why or if they were just coming off of what had been a very strong cycle for the company as a retailer. >> i know j.p. morgan. they looked at states where people were searching for the term and a lot of them were in what you would call conservative parts of the country. but that causality, it is hard to determine as you said and maybe it is not as of horton. >> it is and it is a question we have to ask and we have to be responsible when we are's being trends but trying to figure out if that is actually the reason, i don't know who could figure that out unless you are asking every single person that has ever shopped at a target. all we have are the numbers to go on and you can see that the trends are going

up and from what we know, the trends are sort of reversing her sales and traffic from what target has told us in the most recent quarter. >> i think it is important to note that it started well before this uproar over the lgbtq's merchandise. i guess my question on target is, is that the macro trends in fact that consumers change or is it more target pacific specific. >> i think it could be both and i think the other thing is that target is strong in using it stores and e-commerce operations together. however, in the last two quarters, it is your digital sales and that was not the same as what we saw at walmart. some had been pointing to walmart potentially starting to peek

share in the area. let's turn to net links. raising their target to a street high 5:35. they expect positive cash flow trends to continue into next year but if they continue, they could be an acquisition target by 2025. they argue microsoft is the most looked at by her. if the projected cash flow goes, target represents a cash multiple of 24 numbers. this stock if you remember traded at 700 at the peak whatever that was a year ago so what price would microsoft have to come in? to me, clearly, it would be a

strategic asset. i think microsoft is almost an acquirer of big technology plat forms. >> they have a partnership, don't they? >> exactly. and i think the bigger move on the street is trying to ramp up expectations for all of these extra revenues and also from cracking down on password sharing. everyone is really happy that it is a clean piece. you don't have to worry about anything side streaming and all of the other players. what is fascinating is that no one is much talking about is a growth. it is all about the debate they have and i think you have to get really aggressive on what you think the market will pay on free cash flow. you will have to go back to the days of any change leader and nothing is going to get in the way. >> in the meantime, arguing

that the tear is growing over a four day period. is that slicing? >> i don't know if that is going to scale in that direction but i think it does reflect that people are pleasantly surprised at the recent activity to the ad and the degree to which that and the password crackdown are not really cannibalizing. it is not just churning the same day but it seems like they are adding members and people are willing to accept. maybe they are going to raise the ad. facebook gets super aggressive. right now, it is pretty modest and i think that is just a novelty. we have another revenue stream. >> you forget. >> now they are becoming basic cable. >> password sharing.

>> and they were like, we don't want to crackdown. we want the basic number of eyeballs and we will get to it later. multiple netflix accounts. >> soon! don't tell anybody. call it a retail resurgence, retail traders are back into the market. e d ill tell you what is behin thenthusiasm and what they are buying, next. meantime, the dow jones of about 20 points after losing that game. don't go anywhere.

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welcome back. i will be one of the top performers after wells fargo upgrades its price target to $525. analysts arguing that generative ai is a tailwind for this company. after three months on the sidelines, retail traders are back on the sidelines. influx reaching investors 1.6 billion dollars a day. new data from research shows the bismarck attorney has largely been on the sidelines over the last three months. pointing to several factors driving the inflows including better-than-expected economic data. most importantly, enthusiasm around ai is fuelin

. initially, retail investors were not buying the hype. because of that, levels do not look frothy with more in the coming weeks. looking at a more granular level, you can see. tesla tops the list with 1.2 illion shares purchased in the last five days. apple and google following. amd and amazon rounding up the top five. if we look at which are seeing a new interest, dollar general takes the top spots. t-mobile and lulu lemon also seeing a jump. the retail trader may be back. our next guest argues this may just be a fear of missing out adding that the dangers are too dangerous to take a risk.

are you getting pushback from your clients? >> not really. here is the thing. you look at all of the reason to be skeptical of this market, showing tightening credit, the yield curve is still embedded, the head is still hiking, the economic slowdown is very visible not only here but china and the eurozone. all of the original fed surveys are weak so there is reason to believe that this market is really running on thin air. but the thing is, what if investors are already positioned that way? what if you have already shaken out all of the sellers? then you set the table for a short squeeze and a fear of missing out rally and you have to be careful. i think you have to be kind of a balanced mindset because we are up against resistance on the 4300 level. be, seasonally, we are at that

time frame where we usually get a lot of volatility and we are two standard deviations away from the average. that is usually when the market starts getting lawfully wobbly. it is above average, we can have some things. there are reasons to be a little bit optimistic but i think investors need to be very careful because all of those concerns still exist. >> you do not buy the fundamental underpinning that the economy looks better than expect it? earning? that is nearing the right hiking cycle? >> sure, there is no earnings growth. there are things that have beat expectations but there is no earnings growth. so i'm not buying the fundamental story but i get the

reasons and one of the new dynamics that is coming out is what is happening in china. and that is, there's a lot of people that now think with the weakness in china, they are going to have to devalue at some point. if that is the case, we will have inflation and if that is the case, that is a whole new narrative for technology. the thing is, we are pushing on a multiple issue, 21 times earnings that it doesn't give you a lot of headway moving forward. if you had the risk tolerance to chase a rally knowing what it was, would you be in check only or would you diversify that into any kind of a growth, for example? >> you are seeing some rotation now. energy is probably the poster child, there. but the recount is way down it is very suppressed and we have

trained a lot of our reserves. you cannot argue that we will have an economic rebound and argue that also fuels are not going to take advantage so there is some rotation and small caps have seen a bit for a will for the first time in a long time so i think there are some areas that can play outside of technology. a great leading indicator, it has been strong. i still think you have to have a balanced mindset knowing that in this timeframe, you will have some volatility particularly as we approach august, september and october. in the meantime, mark zuckerberg is weighing in on apples as a challenge, the subject of today's check check. will be going into the 1 millions? ask kathy words. our big idea, 2023, it is

on our website. you will find our digital asset work out. we expect the price, a base case is 600,000+. our goal case is more than $1 million. >> 2030. 2030. otel rooms in 43 countries. i was on the road since i was 16. i've done my share of bad things. also your share of bad things. we know that using workday for finance and hr makes you great at your job. but that don't make you a rock star. ted! ted! ted! oh ted in finance. you're a rock star! hey liz in hr? can you do this? unless you work with an actual rock star. you are a rock star! thank you! who's the new guy? hi, i'm ozwald.

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some strong pushback from mark zuckerberg on the headsets competitor. >> mark zuckerberg going after apple, his new arrival in mixed reality had set your yesterday in a meeting with all hands, audio obtained, $3500 price tag. zuckerberg saying, quote, i think that their announcement really showcases the difference in the values and the vision that our companies bring to this in a way that i think is really important. we innovate to make sure that our products are as accessible and affordable to everyone as possible now, apple's vision pro costs more than three times meta's $1,000 quest pro headset that came out last year and at $500 consumer model is coming later this year. it is setting the stage for a high verse low end battle for headsets next year when the vision pro launches in the u.s and it is not just about headsets zuckerberg laying out an ai roadmap saying generative ai can

help users build things in the metaverse. and also bringing it into facebook apps like a soon to be launched stickers feature for messenger. and chief product officer chris cox showed off the company's upcoming up up upcomeing twitter 2competitor and fun fact, met taka has a pec record when it comes to cloning aw rival social media ct every single one has failed. they have much better luck integrating features in to existing apps like facebook or instagram, but every time they launch a competitor cloned app, it always fails. >> i feel like instagram stories really went after snap pretty hard >> but that is inside of instagram. i'm talking about standalone apps >> question on the headsets since now there will be this

rivalry over the price point and meta will say we're more affordable what is the difference what are you getting for that apple price tag that you can't get from meta? >> i've tried both and i'll tell you it feels like $3500. you get better audio, better visuals, just better control apple vision pro as what you see in the meta quest headset, but just executed so much better for example eye tracking where you just look at what you want to select and make this little pinching motion, it works we are effectually on the apple device and pretty jinkky on the meta. >> and the back and forth on all kinds of issue, privacy being right, and i wonder if that will bleed into the new era of innovation >> and they are really doing on price, that is what mark zuckerberg's thesis is he thinks that they should make it as accessibles as possible,

sell the devices at cost or at as loss in order to get people using the metaverse products and also of course spending money in their own app store. >> beyond the features which you say are better on apple, it does feel like apple has a bigger ambition about the use case for the headset. the meta headset is primarily for gaming, right? >> that is what they focus on. for example last week they did a whole gaming showcase. and that is part of it and they do have some productivity stuff especially in their pro level headset. and on the apple side, they can do it all. it will have gaming of course, apple arcade will be a part of it, and of course anyone is welcome to develop their own games between now and when it comes out. but there is a lot of productivity it has all the apps that you would expect messages and safari and things like that. and it will also run just about every ipad app out there so if you want to use slack for example, it will be there from

day one and meta does not have that kind of library >> wish you could see tim cook's reaction battle of the titans as they say. >> yep wall street is buzzing about beef that story next. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking. is it possible? with comcast business...it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? so we can better protect our customer data? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

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time for today's wall street buzz and we're talking beef. prices are rising 00on the backf cattle shortages and beyond meat price moved up alongside of that kate rogers, is there really a correlation here >> this could potentially be, but it is a bigger picture story here as you mentioned, the price of beef has gone up this year due to the ongoing cattle shortages. live cattle prices are up 25% on the year, they could reach records in 2023. ground beef prices also flying high hitting pandemic levels in recent weeks if you look at this chart showing that spike for the average price per pound hovering around $5. so the question is, could this

help to bolster prices for plant based meats which tend to be a bit pricier. beyond stock is down around 20% this quarter the company said in its most recent earnings report that it has dropped prices by around 9% year on year per pound and some of the ongoing supply chain issues it had experienced had resolved they want too underprice in one category versus animal meat by 2024 i asked to an analyst and he said prices matter in terms of getting customers to buy beyond meat at the grocery store, but it is also about taste and health perceptions for customers. cpi data show restaurant menu prices are still climbing higher than grocery prices by about 1% and consumers will feel the hikes regardless of if they are dining out or cooking at home. but the beef prices are hitting

operates hard. we spoke to a barb ecue owner i texas and he said cost of beef could increase operating costs by $1 million this year. he's already raised menu prices 30% the last 18 months can't stand do that again. but he is definitely not selling any plant based options at his chain. >> just when we thought inflation was coming down. kate, thank you very much. we have two big interviews on monday at 11:00 a.m ray dalio will talk about the debt cycle, banking crisis and much more. and plus toto wolff, bill union th billionaire invest to have and part of the racing team will be joining us both rarely talk, and i think it will be interesting to hear what they have to say >> and in addition to that, it will be a packed week. we made it through it week which

was sort of a vacuum for data and fed speak, but we'll get cpi, the fed, ecb, and oracle and amd chip day >> kroger earnings hard to call it really a bull market until get through some of the big catalysts. >> and now time for the judge. welcome to the half time report this hour the return of the bull market, at least technically but is it really back. we'll debate that with the investment committee s&p 500 now 20% off the october lows joining me joe, stephanie and bill and kevin we have fresh highs of the year, but as you see as carl was just saying, we did back off 4300, we're going for the first close before that level since august