>> so we'll watch the market i will see you on"closing bell." dow right now is fighting for green. so is the s&p, sitting right at $4300. technically, we had entered a bull market. the debate continues as to whether we truly are in a new bull market. we'll discuss. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. is the bear market over, or is it actually just about to begin? the s&p is now up 20% from its lows last october, but it was down almost 25% in the bear market before that the typical bull market sees a gain of 75%, so we'll see if we could have that much more room to run and the china recovery continues to disappoint as deflation hangs over the economy but one fund manager says investors are missing big

opportunities in the services sector there he brings us his top picks oil having a rough go of late prices falling 11% over the past two months, but traders have been talking about tech nick tom mcclellan who says oil could be forming a bottom but first, dom chu, i see an important round number over there. >> it is an important round number, and it's all green for right now, but we have lost some steam. the reason why kelly points it out, we are sitting right at that 4300 mark, one that's been important for a lot of the bulls to gauge whether this rally has legs we are seeing gains, but they are very slight, just fractionally higher for the most part right now, the dow unchanged on the session. the s&p 500, i mentioned the 4300 mark. we're up six points. at the highs, we were up about 29 points, down two at the low so it's been very much a wait

and see, bulls take a breather type market, as kelly points out we have seen a 20% rally in the s&p. the outperformer is the nasdaq composite, 13,271. that ai trade may still be part of that particular move there, as well as others. let's get you up to speed with what's happening in the market fridays, we'll typically show you what the sectors were that we want to highlight utilities, you see up 2% to 3% the best performers in the s&p over the last week, the laggard has been consumer staples. one stock in particular has been a huge driver of that consumer discretionary trade. that is tessly i'm sure you'll talk much more about that and the stock of the day, speaking of artificial intelligence a 5% gain yesterday because of ai releases, and another 3% to 5% today on top of that, because the analysts are getting more bullish.

we're talking adobe, up 3.5% we mentioned yesterday, firefly, their ai platform, they will make that available for the corporate clients. that sent the stock up about 5%. at the highs today, we were up another 6% now only up 3% so wells fargo analysts out there starting to get on board with the ai train. that's been a 9% move over the last couple of days. back over to you >> dom, thank you very much. bank of america declared the bear market over in her note today and sees more room for the new bull market to run, writing in part -- >> and one of my next guests grease, staying bullish on the second half of the year. let's bring in the founder and ceo of kkm financial jeff, welcome. give me your knee jerk thoughts about this new bull market

>> well, it's remarkable, kelly. we've talked often about this post mid term election of 2023 we've seen the bears waving the white flag the s&p 500 going up to 4450 as we are in the month of june, remember, there is end of quarter rebalancing and some window dressing for all those window managers. so i think that pushes us higher here short term. but we have really gotten over a lot of these hurdles we talked about earnings seasons. we talked about the debt ceiling. we got over that hurdle. so the traders in the vix are revealing the fact that nothing for the next 30 days is bothering them you're seeing the vix with a three-year low >> but i just don't take that as the kind of sign you want to be flashing right now >> you're right, so some people

look at this vix this low, you talk about complacency but i'm taking the other side of the trade, because i have been cautiously optimistic all year when you see people not willing to pay for downside protection the vix is just a statistical calculation repealing the fact that people are buying puts and calls and are not concerned short term short-term right now, we have won the race the bears are waving the flag, they are being pushed back in the hurt locker. so we are going to have an ebb and flow of emotion come into the market once we get past this quarter, so we'll see the market pull back, but we are experiencing higher lows in the s&p 500. all those bears were calling for the october lows being tested, i don't hear from them any more. they tucked their tail and ran away so i'm not taking a victory lap, but i am saying things are better than expected

the economy, the consumer, we're seeing strength. the earnings, again, better than feared >> let me bring in david katz. david, let me ask you the question and read you have a couple of stats. are we in a bull market that is like the '80s and '90s that goes on for ten years, or a bull market like in two2009 where we were up 24% before resuming a down trend or in 2001, only about a 25% move >> we don't believe it's a straight line, but we do think stocks are poised to go higher we think the very important thing to point out about this rally from the october lose, while the s&p is up 21%, most areas of the market, an equally weighted s&p, dividend stock, value stocks are up about 14%. so you see the market is doing better it was impossible to predict before the fact. we think the rally is going to

broaden out in a meaningful way, and there are lots of places to buy stocks now >> does it make you nervous, david, to bet on a broadening market, to get in on the momentum now when you see things like jobless claims, usually a leading i would kay for of stocks ticking back up >> europe went into a recession this month, yet the stock market sup sign is up significantly. we could have a recession, but we think stocks will go higher over the next six to nine months and there are really good companies at 10 to 12 times earnings so you're getting good companies at reasonable prices we are seeing a great deal of insider buying so we take our cue from insiders, and we buy the stock that hasn't done a lot yet >> we can argue the macro all day long, but you like pnc,

tyson's, paypal, these are picks that will be kind of independent of whatever that argument is one quick followup have we ever seen stocks not decline when a recession hits? that's basically what you are arguing. >> well, stocks went down about 20% to 25% last year in anticipation of a recession. we would say that stocks are now starting to recover, based on the fact that it's going to be a modest recession, and they're looking towards 2024 where earnings will be on the mend and the economy will be on the mend. >> that's a little weird that they priced in the recession 18 months ahead of time >> it's definitely weird this has been an odd time. we would have said three months ago we might avoid the recession, but with the silicon valley bank and the banking crisis, the odds of a recession are higher today, but a lot of that is dampened with the stocks another major announcement in the auto world. gm will join ford in using tesla charging stations for their evs.

that's added $200 billion in market cap over the past 11 days, which is going to tie for its longest winning streak in history. charging just a small part of tesla's business this is what she said she's focused on >> oh we are in print $2,000 in 2027, and we have not counted the possible revenue sources associated with this strategy. we haven't even done much in the energy storage business away from electric vehicles because we think the most valuable part of the business will be the scaling of vehicles to create this autonomous taxing platform. >> so to both of you, jeff i'll start with you. i'm looking at the technicals of this run what is the next move for tesla here >> it looks like $275.

you remember, i was buying tesla in december when i was at the desk there we're not going to name names, kelly. but what is fascinating, you're seeing gm,ford, call it $50 billion for each company i think it speaks to what cathy is talking about, the storage and all the different components it's a technology company, not a car company. so i see $275. i wrote some calls on my position today, just on the 16th of june. so that will collect some premium. i do think we'll see the market continue to go higher, because we have broken some of the shorts that had to cover the last $50 >> david, tesla, ford, gm, which would you rather >> none of the three we're less enthusiastic about tesla. the stock is one of seven and with e think it will slow down,

we just think there are lots of other places to make money in this market. >> gentlemen -- >> this is the other guest, aka killer what you see with elon musk and all the components, all the emotion pushed towards tws twit, it seems to be in the rear-view mirror so do you think tesla has more room to run here >> there are a lot of good things going on with tesla, but we have the meltup in these stocks, so we're just a little wary about them. we would rather buy the 10 or 12 pdgrowers. >> we'll leave it there. thank you both appreciate your time today meantime, another factor that could drive this new bull market, the return of retail traders. fresh numbers show inflows are back on the rise pippa stevens is here with a closer look. >> the retail trader is back, because inflows from retail

investors averaged $1.36 billion per day over the last week now, this marks a turning point, since retail investors have been on the sidelines over the last three months the firm pointed to several factors, including better than expected economic data and the debt ceiling deal. most importantly, its enthusiasm around ai that is fuel thing round of buying. that is notable, because initially retail investors weren't buying the hype. because of that, there will be more retail buying in the coming weeks. we can see what investors are actually buying. tesla, of course, tops the list with $1.22 billion of shares purc purchased. apple and nvidia follow each with more than $300 million. amd and amazon ouround out the o five if we look at the names with the most new interest, dollar

general takes the top spot there was a more than 300% increase in volume in the last five seconds t-mobile and lululemon also seeing a jump. >> t-mobile? >> household name, everyone knows what t-mobile is >> the street has been bearish on t-mobile for a lot of reasons. listen, the last three years, if you bet with retail traders, they were the first buyers in the real pandemic bear market. so here they are don't count them out just yet. >> this data provides an alternative perspective and investors have a knack for uncovering some kind of undiscovered areas sometimes >> pippa, thank you very much. i want to draw your attention to 3-m a just judge has rejected the company's efforts to resolve its

ear plug lawsuit in bankruptcy they were hoping to partition some of those vulnerable assets. the judge saying they will not let them resolve it with that approach coming up, secretary of state antony blinken announcing a trip to china. what is on the agenda? we'll get a live report from beijing. could crude be nearing a bottom there's one key indicator to watch, and i don't know if you can guess what it is, but if you want to try, tweet me your guess. as we head to break, here is a look at the markets. dow is up nine .s. dow is over 4300 nasdaq is up by a third of a percent. back after this. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics.

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welcome back to "the exchange." each successive month seems to bring more disappointing chinese economic data. the country's price index reported its steepest year on year drop in seven years so just how bad is china's post covid economy? we have the latest >> it's looking pretty bad the factory gate prices for may came in worse than expected,

down by 4.6% this is on weak demand, not only here but also overseas consumer inflation came in near zero may cpi was 0.2% this is quicker than the two-year low that we saw in april, but still weaker month on month. capital economics says the data may be a sign that the post covid bump is petering out, because the backdrop, of course, of all this is that this data is coming after worse than expected trade data this week also, amid record high youth unemployment, and also during an ongoing property slump that is described as dire. the central bank here today attempted toese ease some of th deflation fears, the governor saying the cpi would pick up in the second half to about 1% by december and that china has "ample policy room." as you can expect, that has just

stoked ongoing speculation that china is going to come in with some sort of stimulus. either moving the triple r, or possibly interest rates. some people are saying it could come as early as next week this could be an event next week, because not only would that happen potentially, but also we have may monthly data, even more of it, industrial output figures for example, retail sales, and also there is a rumbling that the u.s. secretary of state anton blinken is going to be coming here to china and possibly meeting with his counterparts. maybe even xi jinping around june 18. >> if the data continue to get worse, would china ever not want those figures reported >> that's a very good question i think what we are seeing here, what we are seeing here, just

e overall, is the government trying to ensure that the data and that the information that comes out of china or that is even discussed outside of china, is in line with what the communist party wants. so the communist party narrative. we are seeing more and more of a crackdown on data in that respect. >> we certainly are. it's what got me thinking. i guess it bolsters the case for more policy easing my next guest expects china to enact policies to prop up the economy in the second half of the year and says services are where investors should be looking. joining me is conrad, senior portfolio manager at the emerging market equity fund. good to see you, conrad. are you a hesitant buyer here or enthusiastic one >> i think, kelly, i think a lot of people, the way they have thrown in the towel with china, you're seeing the valuations, and it's usually darkest before

dawn we have followed the investors, and i can see from a geopolitical standpoint, talking to pension funds, hedge funds, investors, they have given up. that's what creates the opportunities where you have leading franchises that can be fairly attractive multiples where the trade more recently has been for people. as much as we love india longer term, those moneys seem to have come out of china and people are waiting on the sidelines so things look dire. the numbers are definitely softer the recovery has not happened. the government is acutely aware of that. they're just battling the fact that they don't want to have a big stimulus like in 2009. how do they get people back again to spending instead of sitting in bank deposits, given the youth unemployment i think it's something that creates that opportunity right now. >> what are the stocks that you

want to own here >> so kelly, for us, if i think of that quality good cash flow type businesses, leaders in their respective segments, i think they're monetizing you've got social media, the gaming cycling for them. i do think that that is one of those undervalued franchises i like the services area generally, too if i think through travel, and also when i just think of the beverage sector, there's a premiumization story the chinese consumers haven't given up you see people traveling there are opportunities within that in china. now, if we are talking about a stimulus, iwe are seeing more

rumblings about this, and probably disruptive in a global sense. so you are getting those opportunities coming through, where the government will stimulate. maybe not as great as we saw for consumption in the west, but -- go ahead it's still happening >> i didn't mean to interrupt, but alibaba, ten cent, these are companies one may want to own here you also have quite a number of banks and insurance companies in china. would you recommend those positions to investors or more the internet services? >> so the internet are big awaits the banks, we have a regional bank, so we are underweight in the banks, but we've got a regional lender that is very focused. in our top ten, you would find

more of the indian banks where they have a much longer runway and return very well but i'm more focused on the internet properties, and they are massively undervalued. they're generating gobs of cash flow and are willing to buy back their shares so capital return is very much in the agenda of these banks >> conrad, thank you for your time >> thank you, kelly. with china's economy in flux, some companies like ge are turning to india let's get to seema with details. >> general lelectric is in final talks to co-manufacture military jet engines in india this follows defense secretary

austin's trip there. why this matters, it comes ahead of prime minister modi's state visit to d.c. on june 22 experts say a deal of this stature that requires the key transfer of technology to the indians would symbolize the u.s.' commitment to the country at a time when tensions with china continue to rise congressional approval, though, will be needed i spoke to general electric's ceo following the sale of 800 engines to air india in april. he said they're seeing activity pick up on the ground. and it comes as the country has been drawing more interest from corporate giants beyond ge names like google, amazon, and apple. kelly? >> seema, thank you. ge is not the only one bullish on india the oorgization for economic development predicts india's growth will outpace all other major economies this year and next year, even beating out china.

the organization says higher than expected agriculture output will boost growth. for the full story, go to cnbc.com still ahead, the battle of the banks. the names that could see the biggest hit to their bottom lines as they pony up to pay depositors and it's the time of year when networks across nbc yews shine a light on people inspiring america. people like lebron james, eva longoria and others will be featured in a special airing tomorrow and sunday. all week, we have been showcasing business leaders who inspire, as well here is muirial hopkins, in her own words. ♪ ♪ >> you have to be very confident in your own ideas, and be willing to be brave and take

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ahhh! icy hot pro starts working instantly. with two max-strength pain relievers, so you can rise from pain like a pro. icy hot pro. welcome back to "the exchange." the dow is hanging on to a 15-point gain, and the last time we closed above that level is last august. tech, energy and communication services have led the way. real estate, utilities have the worst performing group as for the individual names of the s&p, seeing the best returns since august, netflix third

place, nvidia and royal caribbean are neck and neck for the best s&p stock in that time. and royal caribbean, without any help from ai let's get to tyler mathisen now. >> judge cannon, a trump appointee, is assigned to overseeing the president's federal indictment, according to two nbc sources familiar with the case abc news was the first to report that development trump appointed cannon to the bench in 2020. if the former president is convicted on the seven federal charges he's facing in a classified documents probe, it could mean cannon would be responsible for his sentencing joe biden is visiting the recently renamed ft. liberty today in north carolina to sign a military executive order to bolster job opportunities for military and veteran spouses who often see their careers jeopardized by their loved one's deployments.

this comes one week after the former ft. bragg shed its confederate name two nasa astronauts stepped outside the international space station for a 6.5 hour space walk today they installed new solar panels that will allow iss operations to continue until 2030 today's mission marked astronaut woody homberg's first-ever space walk good for you, woody. back to you, kelly >> tyler, thanks coming up, can the faa keep up with the evolving air mobility space we'll speak with an analyst who says this sector could reach 45 million monthly active riders in the next ten years and we show you a chart and then tell the story energy is the worst performing sector this year, but eqt has been one of the few bright spots, shares up 14% since jan

1. 68% of analysts have a buy rating here is what the ceo toby rice told us a couple weeks ago about how they've been able to deliver for investors. >> we're not just looking to create -- [ inaudible -- we've got a unique strategy and showing some outperformance. but this is a commodity business ♪ ♪

welcome back shares of jogy and archer aviation both higher today the industry is poised to be so disruptive to ground transportation, it could change your commute to work in the coming decade. joining me now is austin mueller. austin, great to see you, first of all welcome. and there's so many skeptics that this is for real. i was caught off guard when the

faa administrator said he's planning for us to have a bevy of, what do we call them, air taxis soon to come >> hi, afternoon, great to be here so as the faa acting administrator indicated, we're actually quite close to having electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as you mentioned, archer and joby are relatively close to getting what's called a type certification for their aircraft archer's is expected in late 2024 and joby in 2025. so after being certified, they can fly passengers >> you are talking a target ticket price of $107 this is getting people to the airport mostly >> yeah. so the primary mode of transport

or route that is expected initially will be the major city center to airport routes so think manhattan to newark airport or manhattan to jfk or say like downtown l.a. to lax. so that will primarily be the target transportation route. although we do anticipate that longer duration routes that are already being used heavily by car ride sharing could be also utilized by these aircraft, just given the much higher cruising speeds and much greater ranges of these aircraft, compared to a car. so we could see really i think the sweet spot in terms of distances for these aircraft, just given the margins on how much they have to maintain on their battery for regulatory purposes the best routes will be in the 20 to 50-mile range. >> joby and archer, you think they're closest to getting

approval by the faa. a lot of these are small market caps, but ev has an $8 billion order back lock but has yet to fly an aircraft. after they are approved, when could consumers start to take a flight on these things >> so it will depend on how quickly they're able to manufacture the aircraft at scale. but i would expect to see some of these aircraft delivered to airlines and other operators within 6 to 12 months after certification. it will be in small quantities initially, but once that starts to scale up, you'll start to see them more widespread with the airlines, especially in the major urban areas like new york or l.a. or chicago, you'll start to see those roll down, these for the urban met ro center.

>> the faa is working on pilot training requirements already, because one of the concerns is having enough pilots it's amazing how far we are into a nascent thing that we never thought would arrive what would the launch point s be for these aircraft if i'm trying to get to laguardia or the jfk from the tristate area? >> for example, helicopter ride sharing companies already have heli ports that are established in manhattan so those would be the initial point-to-point locations where you could be picked up and taken to the airport but really, these aircraft will initially be rolled out where heliports are already installed

from an infrastructure perspective, but also if you look at, like general aviation and executive airports, about 90% of those airports only have about a third utilization compared to like phoenix sky harbor airport is close to 70% utilization on average so these airports are heavily underutilized, and they could be used by ev aircraft that are being established infrastructure without needing to build out but certainly the administration has made a pretty concerted effort to establish more vertiports in major metro areas to support this, as well >> final question, for those who have been disappointed with uber's performance, and certainly with the startup of ev names that require a lot of capital, what is the chance that

regulatory, purgatory, or otherwise, means these names are ultimately a zero? >> well, there's always some risk i would mention that joby and archer in particular have about $1.2 billion and over $600 million in cash respectively and the closer that they get to certification, once they can get close to having those aircraft certified, they will be able to do what is called predelivery payments so you could take a certain portion of the total price of the aircraft and collect that cash and use that to jump-start the manufacturing of the aircraft >> sure. >> so it's helpful if those aircraft are close to certification now. so the closer they can get, the more excited the airlines and air carrier also be. >> everyone always said we were promised flying taxis. maybe they're almost upon us

austin, thank you for your time. >> thank you have a great afternoon former president trump's federal indictment has been unsealed let's get the breaking news and the details. >> it's been unsealed but we haven't seen a copy yet. so that is something we're waiting for literally any second now. presumably we will see a copy of this document. the key is what are the charges and how many counts under each charge for the former president of the united states, and that will give you a sense of what sort of legal jeopardy he's in the other question in terms of the indictment is whether it's what they call a speaking indictment that is an indictment with a lot of explanation in it of how they came to the conclusion that they have come to in terms of why the former president should be charged in each of these cases, which specific crimes he's alleged to have committed here i can tell you that at 3:00 p.m. today, we'll see special counsel jack smith at the department of justice making what they call a statement about this presumably he's going to give

eczema nation to the american public as to why he's decided to file this indictment, and exactly where he thinks it will go no indication from the department of justice that jack smith will take any questions once that happens, kelly but we expect to see him live and on camera at 3:00 p.m. at the department of justice. i'm just looking right now, kelly, and i'm getting the actual indictment here bear with me >> please. >> i'm going to open it up and take a look, and we're doing this live on television, so give me a couple of seconds here. >> let me do a real quick market check. recent session highs with the dow, up 43 points, getting back to the levels we saw in the morning, climbing a little more after briefly turning negative over the past couple of hours. the s&p sup a third of a percent to build on the 20% rally. 43.06 has been a significant psychological number and the nasdaq up half of 1%

today. those are some of the small-cap names, but areas where momentum has powered them to more than doubling this year and on that front, bitcoin is negative on the session as crypto remains under some regulatory pressure. what are your thoughts >> what i can tell you, this is a 49-page indictment, we're going through it right now that would indicate what i was talking about, a speaking indictment there is a lot of detail in here right from the jump. some of what the special counsel here is suggesting is that the former president endeavored to obstruct the fbi and grand jury investigations and conceal his continued retention of classified documents by, among other things, and here is where they detail the specific violations in terms of obstruction of justice they're saying that president trump suggested that his attorney falsely represent to the fbi and grand jury that trump did not have documents called for by the grand jury subpoena they say that trump directed the

navy valet that worked for the former president to move boxes of documents to conceal them from the attorney, the fbi, and the grand jury suggesting that his attorney hide or destroy documents, providing to the fbi and grand jury just some of the documents called for by the grand jury subpoena, while claiming he was cooperating fully, and causing a certification to be submitted, falsely representing that all documents had been produced, while knowing that not all such documents had been produced. so kelly, there's a lot of detail here. the co-conspirator listed in this indictment is walt nalta, a member of the united states navy, stationed as a valet in the white house. he became an executive assistant to donald trump at mar-a-lago. he's also indicted here as a co-conspirator, and this is details here on the classified

information that was at stake. and i'm just scan thing to see, one of the big questions has been, do we know what these documents were that the president is alleged to have taken? were they nuclear or military secrets, that kind of thing? what they are saying here is information was classified as top secret and confidential and secret so we don't know, at least in the first couple of pages here, exactly what the information was in these documents that the president is alleged to have taken. so we'll take some time to go through this and see what we can bring in terms of the specific charges and specific information that's new here. then at 3:00 p.m., we'll see the special counselexplaining to the country why he decided to take this momentous legal step >> thank you very much for giving that to us right away we'll continue to follow that story and hear more at 3:00 p.m. if you have been keeping an eye on your savings account interest rate and it's not keeping pace with the fed rate

hikes, you're not alone. leslie joins us now with what is behind the lag and the changes that could be coming >> i want to show you the current gaphere. because even with the fed fund's rate, banks are paying depositors significantly less. it's really the online banks that are boosting that average so if you extract the large and regional brick and mortar banks, the gap is wider with those institutions paying just a few basis points on savings. it's been this way for a while and customers have gotten used to the idea giving up yields on their cash to the banks. but this dynamic is changing in ways that could impact bank's bottom line. executives speaking at conferences over the last few weeks indicated modest depozsit

declines, not to mention the regional bank crisis has altered customer confidence in the system in order to capture and keep deposits, bank also have to pay customers more analysts expect this dynamic to continue goldman sachs said the three biggest initials that would see the biggest hit -- -- about 2 1/2 hours from now. >> leslie, thank you very much coming up, think we're nearing a bottom in oil? if tom mcclellan is right, the answer is it might depend on ckfte amfre. ba aer this. when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one.

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welcome back to "the exchange." crude prices are down, but my next guest says oil tracks the price of gold. joining me now is tom mcclellan.

are you saying oil is headed higher for now >> yes gold prices and oil prices run contemporaneous. gold prices lead oil prices by almost 20 months if you shift the plot of gold prices forward by 20 months, you find out that oil prices will echo those dance steps and 20 months ago oil prices were bottoming up and heading up to 140 -- excuse me -- up to 2,000 again. i'm expecting crude prices to peak in november don't know how high. there you go that's a good chart. don't know how high oil can go that depends on who ignites another war or who releases more oil, but the timing is set >> summer can be a bullish

season for oil, gasoline demand and the rest this is not a great time for consumers to pay higher prices i think people would be more hyperbolic about your call if you weren't so bearish on oil when we look into 2024 am i getting the broader context right? >> in early 2024, yes, the big decline we saw about 14 months ago in gold prices should be echoed in oil prices in early 2024 we'll see a swoop up in november and then a decline in early 2024 i don't know how to explain exactly gold prices know what oil is going to do, but gold is a leading indicator for lots of things gives us a 15-month indication for what grain prices are going to do. it used to the lead cpi inflation almost perfectly until the cpi calculation was re

>> what would you say the message is broadly from gold >> gold prices today are still in a down trend which means 20 months from now oil prices will be in a down trend that's not what we care about for oil prices we care about what gold was doing 20 months ago. gold is in a downtrend because interest rates are high. a lot of people are not wanting to do that as the fed gets back to money printing, which they will some day, because you can guarantee the fed is going to screw it up somehow, then the price of gold is measured in dollars when you increase the amount of

dollars, that changes that exchange rate. >> as i listen to you -- and i know you're a little worried about the economy. i think maybe the bull market will be going until november until this bearish catalyst arrives for oil and everything else i wanted to point out you've been tracking manufacturing hours. what does that tell you? keeping an eye on this is a framework for what's going on with commodity prices. what do you think is going on with the economy >> i've been expecting an upturn in employment. an employer, especially in a low unemployment environment, is going to want to hoard the employees he's got if he lets them go, it's going to be hard to find ones he wants. employers will start to cut back on hours

hours in manufacturing peaked in april 2018 and started downward. you have to put your thumb on the covid-19 spike that's an anomaly. the decline has been resuming. there is stress in the manufacturing employment which will leak out into other areas of the economy too eventually that's going to reveal itself in a rising unemployment rate. >> tom, it's been a pleasure thank you for joining us and breaking it down >> alwaysgood to see you, kelly. that does it for us today. be sure to tune in monday. we'll be joined by bank of america ceo brian moynihan, just a day ahead of the fed meeting he'll tell us what he expects. coming up on "power lunch," tim seymour will join us tyler is getting ready

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welcome to a friday edition of "power lunch. glad you could join us as bruce willis said, welcome to the party, pal small caps coming along with what had been a big cap rally. does this broader participation mean the party on wall street can last longer? plus, just in time for grilling season, soaring beef prices why it's happening what it means for inflation and restaurant stocks? we have a power joining us for the hour tim seymour here to weigh in. >> got to ask him for barbecue tips and tricks. the dow is up 55 points. not at the mourn session