monday is unusual for a company of this size then thursday from adoby there's also the fed decision. a lot of the market is expecting a pause, but what's the language around that pause or perhaps hike going to be you don't want to miss any of that we're going to cover it all on "overtime" for now that does it for "overtime" "fast money" begins right now. the nasdaq riding a seven-week winning streak into the weekend, while the s&p is up in the fourth straight week and crosses the 4,300 mark for the first time in august is now the time to jump on the bullish band wagon plus, charting tesla's supercharged rally the stock up 11 days in a row, surging 40%. we'll go inside the numbers and ask the chart master where we go where chipotle is heading next i'm melissa lee.

on the desk, steve grasso, guy adami, and bonn win -- bonawyn eison. leadership, though, as we know has been narrow. only four s&p sectors are positive over that span with tech and communication services leading the way. the nasdaq up for a seventh week in a row it is the index's longest winning streak since november 2019 the gains coming ahead of a big week for markets on the docket, new inflation data treasury secretary janet yellen's testimony before the house committee, and the fed's all-important decision on interest rates how should you position yourself going into this weekend, grasso? >> i'm bullish i think the natural thing would be that maybe we just entered into a higher trading range. so where we were at 3,800 and change, all the way up to 4,200,

maybe now it's 4,350 you said august 2022, that was 4,325. maybe we could expand. everyone hates that rally. still goes higher. the problem i have it's been too many consecutive days of bullishness. need to pull back. need some type of reversion trade. need everyone to get their chips back on the table. i'm still bullish, but i need a breather from this momentum. >> i think people are resistant because they're waiting for the next shoe to drop. how could it be we saw three banks go under and there aren't any other fallouts here? how could it be the fed hikes rates so quickly and steeply and still we don't have any side effects of that in terms of a massive slowdown in the consumer and a recession? >> which people have been calling for for a year and a half, and it hasn't materialized i think you're getting people realizing the markets and economy are in a better place

than people realize. what the markets need is a larger breath. not just eight to ten companies that are leading this market we need see the it across the board. i am optimistic that will ham it is basically eight stocks that led this entire rally. if you look at the other 495, they're down for the year. there's still a lot of places you can take advantage of. i would take advantage of those, not these things that are creating the bull market we're in right now. >> and breath is expanding has just started to. >> russell up 1.9% on the week, guy adami. there's glimmer of hope. >> without question. i'll punch a hole in that and say, yes, the clearly the russell is up, but so much of that is predicated on regional banks. that's fine. it's rallying but not necessarily rallying because the economy is doing better. it's rallying because some of the regional banks have been beaten up and people are trying

to bet ahead of what people think is the value trade if the s&p is at 4,300, we're trading close to 19 times this year's number. 17 1/2 next year's if we get there. the comments are still ringing in my ears -- 15% to 20% earnings decline we have not seen on the back of 500 basis points of hikes yet. i'm surprised it hasn't affected the market i think there's an inevidentabl to this entire thing. >> bonawyn >> i think there is a lag effect there's a lag effect with the pressures that led us into the covid relief, and expansion to the upside i think it will likely be the same story on this side. i've taken the pain. i've fought the bull, and clearly they've won for the time being, but i really wonder if it's starting to become more of a pyrrhic victory where you get people piling in at the

precipice of downside. to your point, 550 basis points of hikes has yet to be realized, and it's those concerns -- yes, we're all saying, what's the next shoe to drop? several shoes have dropped we've just gotten there you the regional banking crisis. for me it's cracks starting to show rather than the end, a catastrophe avoided. >> all right, so bonawyn a little more reserved courtney, since you're optimist, here, where would you be, s&p 500 or equally s&p 500 >> equal s&p 500 is actually down a lot more so the problem is those ten companies take up that 26% of the s&p 500 right now, which is the problem, and those valuations are getting extremely stressed, so i'd go more towards an equal weight because you're going to get more exposure to the things that are underperforming. >> that gets to the point of, do you see this rally, market broadening >> when you have a lack of

breath in the marketplace either the rest of the market falls -- or those top eight to ten stocks crater as well or the others catch up or maybe sometimes you get a little bit of both i think you probably get a little bit of both i think you're probably going to see expansion. everyone was calling for the end of earnings, basically 8% to 10% or 15% or 20% earnings decline. that didn't happen you can continue the wait for -- i think these are all cyclical things eventually we're going to have a recession. it is now? is it put off? were we in a recession last year, and some of the gain of the energy sector masked the recession? recessions are only in full focus after we've already gotten out of the recession where we can say, oh, we were in a recession. waiting to trade on that has become a fool's errand in the marketplace. stick with quality companies, wait for a pullback, and get back in. >> guy, do we need to know if we are -- if we have seen a

recession, if we're going into a recession? to steve's point, if we sort of work through that worry already in the stock market, maybe weave seen the impact on stocks, not the economy, but stocks and earnings forecast already. >> maybe, i'm not an economist, so it's hard for me to answer that question. seems to be an inevidentability of that part as well on the recession. if you listen to commentary on retailers, it's a wide swath i think we're all -- no, i think the market to a certain extent is getting excited about things that are going to happen years from now, not necessarily today. and i think the fed might surprise people next week. if you look at what the bank of canada did, that was a surprise. it's a different set of circumstances, inflation is still a problem there. it's a problem here, without a question i think the fact that things are as loose as they are gives the fed to be more hawkish than a

4,300 s&p 500 takes into consideration. >> we took surprises from various central banks this week in stride. you mentioned bank of canada, also australia and these are hikes after a pause, which is what we're expecting from the fed it's curious to me, courtney, at least, that the markets can be fine with, okay, we're all on board this june pause, but whether or not we hike in july looks more and more likely but they could hike again. we don't really know there is no "end" to this cycle and, the fed has made that clear. >> i think that's what's not getting priced into the market right now. even if they do pause, which it looks like there's a good chance they'll pause, i think they'll probably stay at a higher more longer rate, less likelihood of cuts later this year, which people have been expecting but yes, now people -- additional hikes, and that's where i think a lot of large tech companies that have extremely stretched valuations, people have been running to those as a safety trade, but

they're not pricing in the fact that we're in a -- >> if inflation peaked, you would think the market should be brought at this point. >> peaked doesn't mean anything if it stay there is. >> inflation. >> if inflation has peaked but it still remains high -- maybe not at its peak, that remains a problem. >> if china doesn't come on the way everyone thought china was going to come back, then you have a potential for inflation to crater. >> because global demand is down. >> exactly you can see it you want to be a buyer of the market in that case. i think that's what people are focusing on. >> let's get to tesla. the stocks soaring 4% today on the back of the gm charging deal the ev making 11 straight days of gains, longest ever winning streak last week, the chart master said tesla was still heading higher it's up more than 21% since that call is carter going to say to stay

long carter, what do you say? >> gosh, who knows but my hunch is to take some measures not just because it's up 11 sessions in a row, it's up a lot. there's been price discovery, if you will it's also news related with this sort of joint venture thing going on, or at least collaboration with ford and gm but also today with the gapped up at the open it means there's unusual pressure but the stock faded and didn't close all that well. so i think it's up a bit ahead of itself. my hunch is write some calls to trim -- to take some measures. we have two charts let's look at them >> mm-hmm. >> if you'd like the first is perchance we've retraced remarkably exactly half of the peak to trough sell-off we know it was $415 at the high, $100 at the low, and here we are

$244, halfway back second chart of two, just tried to depict the downline does it have to stop on that line of course not, but i think you trim. >> carter, thank you we'll see you in just a few minutes on "options action." ste steve, you took extreme measures when it came to your tesla position. >> i bought my first leg at $105, sold in 9 as, bought at 200, bought again as it dipped below. he said it -- 11 straight up days i think the future is extremely bright for tesla going forward i think they have a monopoly within multiple areas within the ev networks. i want to see it like the overall market, see it come back, give me a better entry point. took my chips off the table. we'll see. >> the optimism surrounding the charging deals with ford and gm -- pipe her a note saying tesla could earn as much as

$3 billion over the next seven years from these agreements, bonawyn. if you liked apple services revenue, maybe this is sort of the beginning of something like that. >> i mean, you hit the nail on the head definitely speaks to recurring revenue, which you definitely like i think the question is about momentum and short-term trading activity to the other panelists' point, i think it's overstretched here. with that said, tesla seems to have a mind of its own this stock could go up 20%, 30% from this, and i don't think any of us would be surprised i'm with carter in that not just shorting it here, but if i'm already in, steve says he's in, if i am in there, i'm definitely writing calls if i don't want to sell outright. but i'd probably be taking cash and looking to deploy elsewhere. >> you sold at 105, troughed at 190. >> yes, and just to be clear, i'm out of the name now.

>> guy, next move, higher or lower for tesla? >> look at carter's charts 50% retracement one, right up against the downtrend, two we have been in this for a few years. it's pretty significant. the bounce has been historic the trace steve put on is fantastic. wait for a better entry point. i don't think this is the entry point to get long. >> gm was a winner in all this, too, courtney. and ford announced its agreement with tesla. >> gm and ford i think that's the bigger picture story with this. the batteries are not as big of a high margin business for tesla, but it's going to help people get more into the ev space. you're still not seeing majority of car ownerships going into evs. if it's easier where people can drive longer, get charging stations, it's going to benefit everyone involved. it's a beneficiary for everyone. >> coming up, hasn't been all about nvidia, meta, and tesla. there are other stocks having strong 2023s how should you be playing them after their run?

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welcome back to "fast money. this year's rally has been largely driven by a handful of tech stocks. royal caribbean, cruising 85% higher so far this year. salesforce is up 61% amazon and chipotle delivering spicy gains. which names have more gas in the tank let's find out with a little game of -- >> trade it or fade it >> are we supposed to sing it? >> i don't know what happened to the audio of that. >> well, it's supposed to go -- trade it or fade it! all right. i guess we didn't hear it. it is a hot stocks edition let's hit off with royal caribbean. courtney, trade or fade this one? >> i would trade this. you've seen a lot of demand coming back into the cruise lines and the pricing power has been impressive. i think it has a lot of room to run considering it's at a 35% to

40% discount compared to land based travel and i think you're going to continue see that benefit them. >> bonawyn >> i think courtney makes a lot of good points them company turned it around, but they have had to if you look at the ev bloat on this company because of the debt you're looking at $2.37 billion quarterly debt payments. at 21 times you're already paying more than you've paid in a decade so i'm fading it. >> let's move on to chipotle mexican grill. guy always loves a good burrito blowout. trade or fade this one >> you know the answer if you're looking for gas in your tank or anyone else, you want to stay in cmg. 37 times sounds expensive. the problem is it's getting cheaper on the way up, so i stay with cmg trade it. >> steve >> i'm going to fade this one. i know guy's looking at the chart and knows it's building.

the longer in space, the higher -- it does look okay technically, but i think it's going to fail and close that gap. how many more -- the bullish story about cmg is they're going to open more stores, be more efficient. i think they're at peak efficiency so i trade it. >> salesforce, bonawyn, trade it or fade it >> i'm going trade this one. now, for me, listen, the valuation is a bit stretched i think it's 28 or 29 times. you really want to get down to, are you buying growth at the right price? i would argue historically, yes, particularly if you look at the ratio, 1.3, 1.4, cheap versus historicals. they've taken measures to rein in costs this is about whether i think there still might be incremental

value. >> guy, crm? >> i'll fade it. carter mentioned 50% retracement in tesla tough same thing going here from the october 2021 high to the december 2022 low women just made a 50% retracement big evaluation i think it does a back end fill. >> amazon, steve grasso, trade it or fade it? >> i'm going trade this one. i know this is the market, but they have a lot of levers to pull on the stock, and it has broken the long-term decline, and i think ai is a significant portion of what drives it going forward. i know it's counterintuitive, but amazon still has legs. >> courtney? >> i would fade this it's a great company, a really great -- but this valuation is trading at 84 times next year's earningless i don't know what the catalyst is going to be to drive that further maybe a.i. i'd stay on the sidelines.

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welcome back to "fast money. time for our chart of the week it is netflix, surging 5% since monday now at highs not seen since last february fifth straight week of gains since starting a crackdown on password sharing in united states saw one of the largest jumps of subscribers according to news from antenna bonawyn, do you like netflix here >> i do, i just -- it's really just you can't afford to sell it because there still seems to be a puerceived understood lying tail wind to the jub side. i thought subscribers were no longer going to be the focal point, but traders are telling

you it very much is. at some point the new phenomenon to bump subscribers is going to converge with the organic rate and that's the only thing i would say look out for >> does seem competitors are weakened in terms of ability to pay up for contents, so they are stymied in this competition. >> maybe even the writer's strike is giving them a tail wind as well there's a lot of things going on the stock's been unbelievable. when it was cheap on valuation, that's when it was a screaming high now it's getting to levels trade historically now you have to be discerning. where it was impervious to the market over the past six months it's going to start falling victim if you think the market is due for something next week, i think you take profits here. >> definitely a stretch valuation, but when you're looking at the fact they're tamping down on the password sharing, the estimates vary

widely so many people think this could at $2 billion, $6 billion. there's a wide range of if this does add a lot more subscribers, cancels the upside short-term considering how expensive it is, but might be wort a look. >> netflix has the best interface forward facing for the consumer it's not even close. you go on other streaming sites, they're terrible they have deep pockets to your point. when you crack down on password sharing, that's a finite amount. out of the gates it looks really impressive i'd fade it. are we still playing that game >> no, but you just did. final trade time. >> if we're playing it, trade gilead. >> the game is over. bonawyn, final trade. >> take a look at -- i'm taking a look at toll brothers although i'd rather be doing it with call

options given with the vix is. >> courtney? >> bank of america, banks are cheap. this is one to take a look at. >> steve, do whatever you want. >> i'm a trader of this stock. micron as the smoke clears that one's going higher. >> that does it for us on "fast money" but do not move a muscle. many more trades just ahead on "options action" on the other side of the break. stay tuned [office sounds] ♪upbeat music♪ ♪♪ ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪ ♪♪

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right now on "o.a.," countdown to the fed how will next week's decision impact the market's new bull run. plus, charting the action in two red-hot stocks super move in tesla and smooth sailing of carnival. caravana was left for dead, but now a feeding frenzy as the stock has dom back to life we have th