♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines >> the federal reserve prepares to pause in a bid to assess the ten consecutive rate hikes our colleagues will speak to brian moynahan about the state of the u.s. economy in the exclusive interview today. and ubs completes the

takeover of credit suisse and reveals the director nominations. crude prices slide amid growing demand while goldman sachs cuts the outlook and he tells the finance manager he is operating in a tough environment. >> this is uncertainties and sentiments i believe within the next month or month after, i don't want to bet and gamble. and novartis shares snap after the deal to buy up a company for $3.5 billion to expand the portfolio for kidney diseases

good morning welcome to "street signs." we start off by looking at markets and how they are trieding we picked up on a -- how they are trading. we picked up on the u.s. board with concerns of being in a bullish market there is debate if this has legs given the leadership is con tr constrained to a handful of stocks we have mixed action from asia and the focus this week is very much on central bank action. we have the fed meeting to watch for on wednesday will they pause or hike? the language is key. ecb on thursday and bank of japan as well in addition to the inflation data tomorrow. in terms of how markets are

faring in europe, it is a positive session stoxx 600 is up .60% recovering the losses from last week it is broad based. every index is in the green today. let's keep a close eye on the spanish index. up .70% charlotte will join us later ftse mib is up 300 points higher and dax is inching higher 1% today. the cac 40 is seeing a rebound in the areas that lagged last week the luxury names and auto names under selling pressure the ftse 100 is shy of 7,620 .40% one name leading the ftse 100 is ocado. it is doing well this morning.

in terms of sectors, this is the br breakdown. autos at the top i spoke about last week with selling going on in that space we are seeing more green on the board. household goods is luxury up 1.2% on the flip side, real estate, we will talk more about the state of the real estate sector for commercial and residential later in the show. down .60%. oil and gas is down .60% as well as we keep a close eye on the language that is coming out of opec and opec plus and saudi arabia despite the fact that saudi arabia went for the unilateral decision to reduce production what has happened is the price of oil continues to drop that sector is down .60% >> as joumanna said, it is a big week for central banks the federal reserve is

expected to hold rates steady and keep the lending rate in the range of 5% to 5.25% efforts have helped ease price pressures, the handful of officials like bullard and mester are open to raising rates. we will get a reading on inflation with cpi out on tuesday and ppi out on wednesday. that is not all. it is not just the fed central banks in europe and japan will reassess the rates this week with the european central bank expected to deliver another 25 point move higher on thursday and followed by bank of japan on friday. to help prepare for the week ahead, dan boardman westin joins us dan, thank you for joining us on "street signs" this morning. let's kick off the federal reserve. the markets are expecting the fed to pause at this meeting

there is a chance they will go for a hike what do we need to see on the cpi on tuesday to go for another interest rate hike on wednesday? >> i think it will need to come in hotter than the markets anticipate i think where we are now in the interest rate cycle is more challenging what the right course of action going forward is in regard to interest rates what concerns us and others in the market is the impact of rising interest rates is a long and variable lag and has the economy fully impacted with 5% of interest rate increases of the last year and the impact of the regional banks and the trouble the last few months. i think the fed is in a tricky position i think they will be damned if they do and damned if they don't. >> i suppose on that note, how

do you expect the market to react if we get a pause or skip? we will have to see the language on wednesday how do you see markets reacting? >> markets are pressing a pause or a skip. i think it will be in the narrative around that. clearly there are still risks to the upside on inflation. i think the messaging will be to pause, but remain data dependent and increase interest rates if the language is strong the couple months. >> dan, to go back to the second part of the question, we were looking at equity markets. the s&p is 20% higher than the october lows would you say we are in the beginning of the bull market here >> technically, we are in the bull market. the gains we have seen since september have been narrow and

from a handful of technology stocks the markets are still fragile. i think there is more downside risk >> why do you think the s&p has done well with the elevated risk and the interest rate tightening cycle and the regional banks and the concerns of the global macro economic at play i wonder why the s&p has gone strength to strength despite well risks out there >> it is the tech trade. it is led by the a.i. narrative. it has come to the floor i think the 90% of the s&p gains this year has come from seven technology companies it is a narrow bull market i think a.i. and technology is playing an increasingly

important part in our lives and will continue to change the world, prices do seem to have gotten ahead of themselves is somewhat over the last couple months as the narrative about a.i. has come to the floor >> i wonder to what extent some resilience is down to the fact that earnings have been strong for q1 with the majority of companies beating expectexpectas the question is should yes expect a normalization specifically with margins which have held up well? >> i think margins will come under pressure as we progress through 2023 and 2024. the impact of interest rates will put a downward pressure on the corporate margins. i think also the pricing power that corporates have had may start to wane somewhat as the full impact increases as the

slowing economy is felt by the corporates the earnings season has been a lot stronger than people were anticipating i still think this are risks to the downside from the next 6 to 12 months. >> dan boardman-weston, thank you for joining us for more on why this is similar to the 2008 crisis, check out cnbc.com. a programming note, our suflu.s. colleagues will speak to ray dalio coming up at 17:00 cet don't miss brian moynahan later today at 19:00 cet in banking news, ubs has completed the takeover of credit

suisse it comes as the company is imposing restrictions on bankers. according to sources speaking with the financial times, ubs has drawn up two dozen red lines out lining activities for staffers, including a ban on new clients from high risk countries and launching new products without approval from managers this is the reaction in ubs stock. up 1.2%. credit suisse still trading up 1.3% you have to think at some point it will stop trading now the takeover is complete julianna, what is interesting is ubs management imposed the red lines and tells you there is a concern internally and to the external world the toxic culture that prevailed at credit suisse and this is the way to say no. >> and ubs is concerned with how

shareholders feel about the stock moving forward with the integration risk that lies ahead. >> absolutely. that is one reason why ubs is back at 18.5 post the announcement we reached the 20 handle, but peeled off with the exclusion h risk one to watch there in other corporate news, novartis will buy china therapeutics for $3.5 billion. it will expand the renal portfolio. the deal has support from boards of both companies and expected to close in the second half of the year novartis shares are closing up today of the it is also one move from the ceo to acquire a new

set of drugs he has been trimming the portfolio and trying to go bigger in the specialty diseases this is a change of pace with the focus on slimming the business down. >> this is a focus the last couple years of restructuring and reducing head count and slimming units fact they are spending money, $3.5 billion, for the company, is significant that says they feel the chapter of cost consolidation is behind them. >> definitely. the spinoff of novartis of the generics business is a piece to unlock the next chapter in the story for acquisitions. elsewhere, biontech will go to court to back against t claims from a german woman the shot has a positive risk

benefit profile. biontech says the case can without merit and more than 1.5 billion peoplee received the vaccine worldwide. and coming up on "street signs," collaboration, not competition is the goal for china. the details are next. and boris johnson leaves politics after the actions from the pandemic we will ask what it means for the party when "street signs" returns. hi. i'm wolfgang puck when i started my online store wolfgang puck home i knew there would be a lot of orders to fill and i wanted them to ship out fast that's why i chose shipstation shipstation helps manage orders reduce shipping costs and print out shipping labels it's my secret ingredient shipstation the number 1 choice of online sellers and wolfgang puck go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free

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welcome back to "street signs. we brought you the biontech story before the break and heading to court to defend in a case over the covid vaccine. an update. the first court hearing in the german court over the vaccine side effects has been postponed by the court we will not hear in the next hours around this. we heard it has been postponed elsewhere, goldman sachs has lowered the december 2023

forecast to $86 a barrel to $96. this comes from the supply of russia to near record lows despite the saudi arabia production cut this is an about face from goldman sachs. they have been bullish out there and not long ago forecasting oil to end up in triple digit territory. this tells you the pressure is from the outside of the market and it is extreme. you see wti trading down saudi arabia wants stronger cooperation with china and less competition with energy minister salman saying he ignored western concerns this has led to increased security and the kingdom is looking to boost energy ties he told dan murphy there is value work working with china as

demand continues to grow dan is with us we were recapping the bits of the interview. it is telling. if you look at the trade data from saudi, people don't know, but the biggest trading partner is china and not the u.s >> reporter: that right. china is a critical trading partner for saudi arabia that is why we have seen chinese business leaders flocking to riyadh looking to do a number of deals and tap into the deep halls of private and public capital here as saudi arabia accelerates the deals. what we have seen is tens of billions of dollars signed in deals in transportation and tourism and other areas ass saui arabia looks to diversify the economy and china looks for access to new markets. this is diplomatic

we have seen china and saudi arabia become closer in the recent years we have seen china playing an active role in middle east diplomacy brokering the deal with saudi arabia and iran historic normalization of relations in this part of the world. the middle east has become an arena for the ongoing strategic ri rivalry with the u.s. and china. i put that question to the energy minister on sunday and i asked him what does the deepening ties with saudi arabia and china mean for the region and the rest of the world and in particular what will it mean for the united states. >> i come to recognize the reality of today that china is taking -- had taken a lead and will continue to take that lead. we don't have to compete with

china. we have to collaborate with china. i also collaborate with everybody else we will never go again to the zero-sum game. there is a value with working with china because they have taken the lead they have the right manufacturers. everybody is buying from china many countries are into the high 50% or 60% or 70%. what is the hiccup of collaborating with china that doesn't mean we won't collaborate with others. >> reporter: this conversation with the energy minister came a week after my conversation with him in vienna after the opec plus decision to extend the cuts into 2024 and saudi arabia's move to cut production by 1 million barrels starting from july it would not be an interview with the energy minister without

talking about oil. i asked how he is currently rating the market given the fact we have seen oil prices slip below $70 a barrel despite the opec plus move he is not concerned at this point, but he said there is a disconnect with the prices and fundamentals in the market a difference with the physical supplies and the futures markets of the at the same time, he said this is a oil market battling uncertainties and sentiments at the moment as well a lot of the macro concern and chinese demand concerns weighing over the top of that opec cut to production and trying to stabilize the market sentiment being downbeat in the market the overall mood is not great concern right now. >> dan, thank you for bringing us that interview. you can catch more of the

conversation with the energy minister if you check out cnbc.com. odey asset manager chris odey left the firm over assault allegations. the funds are considered restricting withdrawals, but said it may close the odey swan fund the prime broker is jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley which is now reviewing the relationships with the fund. and scottish foreign minister has been released without charge on sunday as part of the police investigation into the scottish national party. in a statement, she said she is innocent of wrongdoing as police investigate what happened to more than 660,000 pounds of donations. sturgeon's husband was arrested in april with the party's treasurer taken into custody

after. both men have been released pending further investigation. former british prime minister boris johnson resigned as a member of parliament after the investigation into the conduct during the pandemic found he lied to mps over the suspension in the house of commons. johnson hit out over a witch hunt and kangaroo court in a 1,000 word statement this is part of the effort to take revenge for brexit. speaking to sky news over the weekend, secretary of state for energy tried to put distance between johnson and the current rishi sunak sepaadministration >> the world moved on from the dramatic period of brexit and the issues related to covid. >> do you think the world moved on from boris johnson? >> factually speaking, boris

johnson is no longer prime minister i think people appreciate it i worked under his administration he had many successes to his name including breaking the brexit impasse and getting the country vaccinated first there was drama that came with that the world has moved on, not least, because of putin invasion of ukraine >> you have grant saying there is drama and boris johnson is known for the dramatic style he has a tennedency to make himself the story. bit of a surprise for many within the conservative party. he has a lot of backers. it is interesting to see if some johnson loyalists feel the need to resign as well. crucially, what this all means for rishi sunak is a headache and it has triggered three

elections at a time when a conservative popularity has been on the fall. so, if they do face the feats and those constituents, it is a bad time for the upcoming elec elections. >> they can be full of surprises which are not necessarily a proxy for a general election, but clearly the infighting taking place within the conservative party, is a negative for rishi sunak and his administration. >> i would say boris johnson went one step further because he directed jabs at the prime minister the fact you weren't able to sign a free trade deal with the u.s. and were you just there in washington meeting with president biden is a sign he doesn't take the uk seriously. there are other signs over post brexit they moved away from the lower

tax regime because they had to with the mini budget last summer he is poignant with the criticism. the question is if the prime minister can survive that all. >> this feels inevitable given rishi sunak was the final nail in the coffin of the boris johnson tenure he was a huge part of the administration and he withdrew his support. >> it feels personal. coming up on "street signs," we will discuss the real estate sector and macro economic conditionsnd t ahe higher interest rate environment. stay with us we are back in a few moments

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policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines >> european equities power higher ahead of the key week of central bank action as the federal reserve prepares to pause in the bid to assess the impact of ten consecutive rate hikes. our u.s. colleagues will speak

to brian moynahan on the state of the u.s. economy in the exclusive interview later today. ubs completes the takeover the credit suisse and reveals the manager nominations. and crude surprises slide and goldman sachs cuts prices and the saudi oil minister says he is operating in a tough environment. >> we are working against something called uncertainties and sentiments i believe that within the next month or month after, i don't want to bet and gamble and novartis shares gain after the deal to buy american company chinook to expand the treatment portfolio for kidney diseases

european equities off to a strong start this morning. kicking off a major week for central bank action as we mentioned in the headlines fed, ecb and bank of japan due to deliver policy decisions this week worth noting that last week the european market underperformed the u.s. counterparts. we saw u.s. equities with further gains. perhaps a little bit of a catch-up trade this morning. nevertheless, we are seeing strong trades. dax up 1%. ftse mib up 1% ftse 100 is lagging .30% cac 40 in france up .90% in terms of forex markets, focus with the central bank meetings we have euro trading up 107.66

sterling trading higher after the turmoil with boris johnson's resignation. a lot of action this morning sterling holding up well despite that dollar trade on the back foot of the swiss franc. let's look at wall street and what is in store similar to what is in europe we are in for further gains to start the week nasdaq looking to lead the way 90-point jump at the open. the nasdaq moved higher for the seventh week in a row. >> let's turn to a sector that is topical right now the real estate sector could be set for tighter credit conditions in the near term according to the report by m & g real estate. there is less likelihood of a full-blown crisis from the

banking turmoil, but there is stress in the system we have the global head of investment from m&g with us. wonderful to have you with us. there has been talk about real estate the last couple months and in light of banks, especially u.s. banks exposure to commercial real estate. can you tell our viewers how dire this situation is because we are in an environment of tighter credit availability and higher interest rates and different working patterns >> we look at the real estate sector and how this effects returns for our customers. commercial real estate is back in the fold after a couple of bank failures. there has been a lot of talk, as you know, about regional banks

in the u.s i think the first thing to say is that i don't think that we are in a situation akin to the global financial crisis. i think regulation is working. tier 1 capital is better than 2007 it is a positive thing, but there are fragilitiy sfragilitis >> i guess the question is how bad will it be we talk about banks with underwriting standards that is all contingent on default planning out what if it is worse? >> i think this is the key point. the fragility stems from the true real estate let me give you the obvious

example. u.s. offices the question of the real estate sector if you look at the main u.s. cities houston, texas, vacancy of 25% washington, d.c., vacancy of 20%. compared to europe if i'm a bank and borrower comes to me and says do you want to refinance my office investment i borrowed at 3% three years ago and now i want to refinance at 6% or 7% it is an office and it is out of town and it is one year on the lease. would you as a banker refinance? question mark, right the key point is the fragility the other point is which is in the report has a graph showing

the supply of logistics property in australia and korea in the city of seoul, you have three times more new supply coming over the next two years than in sydney and melbourne put together if tenants have a lot of buildings to choose from, i own one building, it is tougher to refinance. there are sources of froagfragi. the summary is it is where the occupation is weak >> can i dig deep neer in the u. office san francisco specifically it has been a ghost town vac vacancy rates are at record levels, but most are not renewing when it columes up for renewal? we have seen valuations come

down, but have we hit the floor or is there further to go? >> that is a good question my rule of thumb is the fragility of the office market in the current world of hybrid working depends on three rules of thumb number one, how painful the commute is number two, how the present culture is here. in korea or japan, your boss expects you to be in the office. in australia and u.s., bosses are more relaxed thirdly, how big the dwellings are. if you live in a big house out of town, you have space to work. if you live in a flat in tokyo, i assure you, working there is not cool you want to go to the office despite the commute. therefore, places like san francisco and melbourne are fragile. let's call it the three rules of

th thumb of fragility apply >> can i pivot to the uk i was looking at one of our charts which showed the residential real estate sector held up much better than other parts of the real estate market. i wonder if the reason is simply that higher mortgage rates haven't truly hit the majority of households yet and is it matter of time >> that is a good question we invest in residential for rent the family sector. a full block of flats. it is not built to sell. we are not a house builder the residential sector has remained resilient for two reasons. number one, the general pivot in

the world of real estate investment from having portfolios of offices and retail to having portfolios of residential and low gist part -- logistics. the residential in the uk is, this a-- nascent compared to the u.s. you take a european property fund and that is 10% to 15%. it is a general pivot. secondly, we have to say there is a chronic shortage of houses. in london, why do all people have to share a flat >> it is expensiexpensive. let me ask you valuations. we have seen a pull back in

anything to do with real estate and real estate investment trust and real estate stock. this is the million dollar question if you think the pullback is enough to reflect the set of conditions you describe or could there be further pain to come s >> i think there is a big difference of fundmeamentalfund. there is a graph in the report that basically shows green offices versus non-green offices and how things have changed in the city of london it is clear that good, quality offices with the right green crede credentials, values are still rising bad quality and values are falling. the gap is rising. i think that going back to your

question, if you look at the fundamentals and those are sound, the fragility is lower. >> thank you so much of such an interesting conversation we love to have you come back in a couple of months to reassess the cycle. jose, the global head of investment strategy from m&g i want to turn your attention to breaking news from some local italian newspapers. there is a report that the former italian prime minister silvio berlusconi has died he was placed in intensive care a couple of weeks back he had been suffering bad health the last couple tyears. he had suffered with covid and

has been in and out of hospital the last couple years. now we are getting reports from the italian news wires that the former prime minister has indeed died. >> we have from the bbc and that is writing that silvio berlusconi, the former italian p.m., who bounced back from allegations and scandals, has died >> could giv-- to give you contt he built up the media empire and pivoted from the media empire to politics in the '90s and prevailed over politics for over 20 years and more. we are looking at three decades. he is currently the leader of the italian media of th

the foreign minister, his right-hand man,being by his side for so long the people i spoke to over covering politics say he doesn't have the sway that berlusconi has over the party when you think about italian politics, right now, it is three par parties. the three of them together are at the heart of the italian coalition led by berlusconi. there will be questions over what happens next and who will replace him and what this means for the popularity of the party here something to keep an eye on with respect to italian politics. it has been confirmed now that silvio berlusconi has died >> we are going to take a quick break. when we come back, we will talk

about spanish politics and the early election boost having ceded ground to the right. we the will tell you more about that after this break. and hsbc announces the launch of the innovation unit over the takeover unit of silicon valley bank. we will hear from the ceo elno quinn coming up next he snores like an angry rhino. you've never heard an angry rhino. baby i hear one every night... every night. okay. i'll work on that.

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welcome back hsbc announced the launch of habc banking which will takeover the collapsed bank silicon valley bank. arjun joins us with a special guest. >> reporter: joumanna, let's dig in and find out why hsbc bought silicon valley bank uk and the plans with the ceo of hsbc noel quinn. noel, there are questions swirling why hsbc did go out and buy silicon valley bank uk what was the decision behind that >> hsbc has been an entrepreneur

since the day it was founded hsbc silicon valley bank was part of the technology sector. it was an opportunity that came along and it was unfortunate, but fortunate. we put the call in on sunday morning and were pleased to buy p m monday morning >> reporter: you set up in u.s. and israel and hong kong can you give us the purpose of the teams? >> we bought a team with 620 people the business was a good business of the it did not have the same challenges i wanted to take that business model and take it to the others. we recruited in the u.s. and israel and hong kong if i see the opportunity in other markets, i'll do that.

i want to offer a specialist that silicon valley bank had and the strength of hsbc and the global reach to help the startups and fast growth companies and help go global. >> you are looking to expand >> yes >> reporter: what is the road behind israel and hong kong and the u.s. are there other cities or countries where you see promise? >> i think the important thing is build the businesses there. we bought one in the uk. the most important thing for me on the uk acquisition is make sure we continue to foster the business and protect it. to allow the specialism to operate as a team within the hsbc team. then, if we see opportunities in other markets, i'll create in other markets where there is an opportunity. >> reporter: a lot of people look at the acquisition, hsbc is

the traditional bank acquired the tech operation we are worried about the risk profile and the management of the bank under hsbc. will they still be willing to lend perhaps to risky businesses and venture capital, et cetera how do you respond >> i'm not changing the risk appetite of hsbc we will do series a and venture debt we are doing that now. in the three months we have owned the uk business, i have been pleasantly surprised. i'm more encouraged today than three months ago i want to protect the business model. we're not slicing and dicing that team into the different departments of hsbc. it is a separate legal entity in a separate building and run to

protect the entity the venture capitalists is the best way to manage the risk. you understand the business plan of the management team put the two together and you can have good risk management while going into a risk appetite that is not the normal territory of hsbc >> reporter: this is an interesting time with the acquisition of the worries of the tech sector in europe and dropping off in the uk with challeng challenges >> since we bought the business, erin said she had more requests in the three months since we bought the business than three months prior to buying it. that is good customers have given us the belief and has given us support and coming to us in increasing

numbers. if i look around the world, before we set the teams up in hong kong and the u.s., we had over 1,000 account opening requests from companies around the world in asia and in the u.s. to come and bank with hsbc because of what we did in the uk i believe teams in the u.s. and hong kong has the opportunity for growth >> reporter: give us a sense of the relationship with the uk government going forward they are key to the deal what is the nature of the relationship with the uk government going forward with the re-branding? >> we want to help the uk government with the economy. the prime minister said it this morning. we believe in that proposition we want to support the economic development of the sector in the uk economy what is more important, we can do it domestically and help the

companies start in the uk and expand that is an important proposition for the uk government. i want to say some really positive things about that weekend. the bank of england and regulatory environment together with the government worked well over that weekend. i just want to congratulate them over the way they acted to create an environment where we were able to buy and we were a willing buyer. they facilitated that acquisition taking place a lot of people talk about regulation in the uk the fact it built that as a legal entity 12 months prior was one of the reasons we were able to buy that weekend. they should get credit for the foresight they had in creating a separate legal entity in the uk. >> reporter: noel, thank you for the insight into the re-branded

hsbc and the future. it sounds like an interesting time hsbc looking to take silicon valley bank uk brand under hsbc global and looking to fund startups it will be interesting to see how it plays out in the tough environment for tech startups. guys, back to you. >> arjun, fantastic interview. so many startups are key to understand how leadership will change with hsbc and if lending standards will change. let get back to the corporate news in focus today. this is chinook therapeutics novartis is ak -- acquiring for $3.5 billion. to the news we announced moments ago. more and more outlets are

reporting that berlsilvio berlun has passed away. this will lead to the questions of the italian party and who will replace him at the mel heli -- helm he has many supporters he has been a looming figure over italian politics for three decades now. the intersection of business and politics a quick look at european markets. all of the majors are opening up in the green we have a big week ahead with the lots of central bank decisions to watch we have the ecb here and all eyes on fed on wednesday as well >> before that, we have the u.s. cpi. a bit of inflation data to look forward to that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here are the "five@5. we will tell you why goldman sachs is getting bullish on stocks and oil is moving in the opposite direction with the energy minister defends the production cuts and hints more to come. and signed, sealed and delivered. ubs closing the deal on credit suisse the investment ban