it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here are the "five@5. we will tell you why goldman sachs is getting bullish on stocks and oil is moving in the opposite direction with the energy minister defends the production cuts and hints more to come. and signed, sealed and delivered. ubs closing the deal on credit suisse the investment bank is taking

things slow. hitting all-time high. reports after the close today in what could be the cheapest a.i. play out there today later on, more trouble out west as labor issues force one port to shutdown operations it is monday, june 12th, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's kickoff the half hour are the check of the stock futures green across the board nasdaq doing the best up over .50%. something to watch oracle trading at an all-time high moving higher in the pre-market. this is after the winning week which saw the s&p close higher for the fourth week in a row it also hit its highest level since august you are seeing the peak during

the week strong week for the s&p. the nasdaq is coming off a big week up seven weeks straight. longest win streak since 2019. you see the strong upside move here with the nasdaq as well we are looking at the bond market as well the benchmark 10-year treasury 3.75 up 15 points from where it started the month as we continue to move to the fed decision coming up. elevated yield with the short end of the curve we are looking at energy oil extending the losses last week we are under a lot of pressure wti at $68 down 2.5%. brent crude over $73 a barrel. a lot of pressure on the oil market we will talk more about energy coming up. we have sound from the saudi energy minister on the sector's

price pressure for a check on the action in asia and in europe is julianna tatelbaum who is standing by in the london newsroom with more. julianna, good morning >> frank, good morning we are off to a strong start for the week every region in europe is higher 1% of gains for the dax this morning. leading the charge worth noting, we saw the european market underperform wall street. the stoxx 600 retreated .50% while you had gains stateside. a catch-up trade taking place in europe this morning as we brace for a big week on the central bank front with the federal reserve meeting and ecb meeting on thursday. the market is expecting another rate hike and bank of japan on friday on that note, look at the asian markets. a mixed picture. shanghai retreat slightly overnight.

hang seng and hong kong slightly higher nikkei at 0.5% with the bank of japan meeting this week. frank. >> julianna, you are following big news from switzerland? >> we are. this story has taken twists and turns over the years it is finally entering the taken al stage -- entering the final stage. ubs finally closing the deal with credit suisse nearly two dozen red lines prohibiting activities for credit suisse staffers and a ban on clients from high-risk countries. this is a big story that is coming to a close, it would seem there is concern around the culture and importing the credit suisse culture which was

problematic into ubs putting in some stop-gaps to prevent that from happening. frank, i want to mention a story from italy according to multiple media reports, silvio berlusconi has died at aged 86. he was the longest serving post-war prime minister. he was plagued by scandals and corruption over the years. he overcame that he was a media mogul and prime minister of italy four times we will review that and what it may mean for italian politics for the coming week. frank. >> julianna tatelbaum, thank you. great to see you time for a check on the top corporate stories with pippa stevens. >> lumina says the ceo is resigning after losing support of the board members after the

failed $7 billion deal for grai and proxy fight with carl icahn. the board will begin a search for the replacement. the financial times reports that elon musk refusing to pay the twitter rent created the surge of delin delinquency at g sachs. it does not intent to restart payments or cover past due amounts. and george soros is handing control of the $25 billion empire over to his 37-year-old son alexander. in speaking with the wall street journal, alex said he is more political than his father and hinted at a significant financial role for the soros organization in the u.s. elections next year. frank. pippa, thank you back to the markets. inflation and the fed could

determine the directs oion tof e markets this week. headline cpi is forecast to rise 4% year over year. down from the rise of 4.9% in april. softer inflation could help the fed justify skipping a rate hike this month, however, it is not unanimous. the cme fed watch tool showing a 74% chance of pause on wednesday, but 26% chance of another quarter point hike a pause doesn't mean the fed is done the markets are pricing in a 53% chance of a hike in july let's talk more about anna cretron. >> good to see you >> i'm looking at the numbers here the dow in a two-wee the nasdaq doing the best with the seven-week win streak.

>> markets are expecting a pause, but expecting two times the rate cuts by the fed this year i.e., going back to a dovish market environment which stocks love that is what markets are pricing in we certainly see risk there. >> you see a risk in the fact we may not get a pause or cuts this year i think investors trying to read the tea leaves offvfleaves the cpi coming out on the first day of the meeting >> frank, that's scary we're curious about what the cpi print is in the same week the fed needs to make its decision the fact it is data dependent, rate is a bigger risk over what is the long term plan.

you are forced to zoom out to situations if you zoom out the first level, you see it all hinges on the job market the strength of the job market with wage inflation strong which kept services inflation strong until you get signals that is under control, it is too early to expect a u-turn and cut in rates from our perspective >> it is interesting you mention the job market a lot of people think with such a job market, it means we are not headed toward a recession on the other side, people believe we are in a recession or headed toward a recession. europe is from a recession and we are looking at rosy outlook with the q2 gdp. do you expect a soft landing in the u.s. >> this is a dichotomy we are

all baffling about look at the leading indicators we had 12 months of consecutive month over month data that things are slowing down. inverted yield curve is more aggr aggressive statistically speaking, the likelihood of avoiding recession is low frank, if you turn it around and say who cares if we reach the textbook version of recession? who cares if it is anticipated because we have been talking about it since october what matters is the financial liquidity and what matters is the labor market and how strong consumers can continue too feel. >> interesting take. thank you for being here great to see you a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange," and the one word investors have to know today. first, oracle earnings are coming up after the close and my

next guest says it could be the cheapest a.i. out there. and oil extends a two-week losing streak according to the energy minister. and why industry headwinds facing communication services may be overblown a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns. with comcast business...it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. ♪♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies,

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a news alert reuters is reporting eu

regulators are approving the broad broadcom deal for vmware broadcom up about 40% year to date one of the benefits of the a.i. fueled rally. coming up on "worldwide exchange," a first on cnbc interview. michelle mayer and the latest spending pulse report. why sticky inflation is doing little to stop the consumer di trend "worldwide exchange" is back right after this ♪ ♪ this is rochelle, who gives you a shot. ♪ ♪ rebecca is there when you feel not so hot. ♪ ♪ this is larissa, who's feeling glown up. ♪ ♪ and this here is winnie, who zhuzhed up their cup. ♪

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the price of oil under pressure with wti falling below $69 a barrel it is set to extend the two-week losing streak. goldman sachs is lowering the price forecast by 10% to $86 a barrel by year end and pricing wti to $81 this is after disappointing economic data from china that cast more doubt about the country's recovery and future demand for crude we have dan murphy joining us in riyadh with more on the story. dan dan, what are you seeing >> reporter: frank, good morning. as oil prices slip below $70 a u.s. barrel, i spoke with the

energy minister in riyadh. this was an important interview. the first comments since the opec plus move to extend the cuts and saudi arabia's decision to deepen the cuts by 1 million barrels starting next month. the prince said there is a disconnect with the prices and fundamentals right now listen in. >> physical market is telling us something. i think the future markets are telling us something else. it is a matter of being in a state of readiness that's why, you know, we keep taking this precautionary pre pressure it is part in parcel of pre-active and preemptive. >> reporter: it is not concerned. the market is expected to tighten in the second half of

the year front and center in riyadh, frank, is china. investors seeking to chase new deals here and at the same time, remember, saudi arabia and china are critical partner was the oil trade as well. china being the largest consumer of saudi oil and largest consumer of oil globally these two countries have become close over the last few months and years as they both face fractured ties with the united states interesting to watch back to you. >> interesting dan murphy, live in riyadh, thank you very much. investors have been riding the white hot a.i. stock boom. oracle reports today after the deal with nvidia and medical software maker now the cheapest a.i. equity play compared to the peers. it trades at 20 times forward earnings and nvidia trading at

51 times forward earnings in comparison you would not know it with the latest earnings call mentions a.i. 41 times compared to 51 at microsoft and 65 times at alphabet. the stock paints a pretty picture. up 64% in the past 12 months better than microsoft or alphabet of the it the -- alphat joining me for more is mark. >> thank you for having me >> this was once an a.i. play. give us a sense where you are sitting with the company what is the rating and price target >> oracle is an interesting stock. many believed it would be a net loser. reality was different. it took them longer to move the

workloads to cloud and build the infrastructure part what they built out is oci gen 2. it competes in the same market as microsoft, amazon and google in terms of infrastructure as a service platform we get an apple on this stock. we like the set you -- set up on numerous levels. a.i. has not been impacted in the way amazon and google. the growth rate hasn't changed it is growing 70% off a smaller base of the it is very early in its transition to cloud both in terms of infrastructure and platform as well as in erp >> i think i want to jump in because you are hitting on a big thing. a lot of people think oracle could be asle sleeping giant.

it has 2% market share with the hyper scale market the report is it will have a big announcement on the report that it will sell large language models with the startup and offer an open a.i. service to the cloud customers. is that a game changer >> that is one lever here. from the revenue point of view, it is one of many levers company has been investing this a.i. for a long period of time the automation is a.i. what they have done is built out a really interesting cloud fabric to deliver high performance and a.i. for the purpose of trading up and machine learning, et cetera. they built a relationship with nvidia they have the fastest of the nvidia chips available

unique fabric connecting it. they are moving into the llm space. they are quietly and this is oracle which is traditionally never quiet about anything, they are kquietly becoming a meaningful player in the space sgspace. >> is there a chance they can take market share from google or one of the other players like azure or amazon? >> that said, they keep surprising with new capa capabilities it is possible they take share from google. they don't have the issues that enterprises are concerned about. they could do really well. >> oracle shares up 4% in the pre-market something to watch mark, thank you.

straight ahead on "worldwide exchange," we will see if oil's sharp move lower this morning changes the outlook for my next guest. one name in particular he says could rise $20 in the next 12 months. and if you miss "worldwide exchange," check us out on spotify or other podcast apps. "worldwide exchange" will be right back after this. in reliev, so you can rise from pain like a pro. icy hot pro. (vo) sail through the heart of historic cities and unforgettable scenery with viking. unpack once, and get closer to iconic landmarks, local life,

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york city area we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. here's what's on deck. futures are pointing to higher open as the nasdaq rides the longest win streak since 2019. and breaking out the best and worst of the rally why the next two weeks could be different than the first two weeks. and consumers are spending on experiences that is a report you will not see anywhere els except for here on this monday, june 12th, 2023. "worldwide exchange" on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." thank you for waking up and starting your day with us. checking on u.s. stock futures

they are higher. nasdaq up .75% the s&p and dow solidly in the green. we are looking at a new note from goldman sachs boosting the bank's s&p target to 4,500 from 4,000. since 1980, the episodes of the narrow market breadth are followed by the catch up the s&p's year end target. 4,500 is the new target. you are seeing a bullish outlook. now turning to the bond market the 10-year treasury at 3.75%. rising 15 points from the start of the month elevated rates with the 2-year treasury at 4.6. we want to look at oil dan murphy hit the pressure facing oil

wti crude is $68 down more than 2.5% this morning. brent crude over $73 a barrel. natural gas with a slight bump let's check on the corporate stories with pippa ste vvens >> a developing story this morning. the maritime association which represents terminal operators says labor disruptions and labor union actions forced it to shutdown at the port of seattle. leaders are pushing back accusing the port operator of leveraging one sided information and adding the ports are open for business this is part of the ongoing labor dispute for new contracts between the ports and workers and is contributing to the longest port disruption since 2015 else's where, former jpmorgan chase executive jes

staley wrapping up the first week of testimony over his relationship with jeffrey epstein. this allowed the banker allowed the sex trafficking and ignored the red flags. and novartis is buying chinook for $3.5 billion shares are up 67% this morning frank. >> pippa, thank you. turning attention back to wall street. markets are nearing the halfway point of the trading month s&p is in bull market territory. it is not just that driving the rally. it will look to recover the losses from early this year. we have the full story on the

moves with jason gableman and frank james. jason, let's start with you. good morning >> thanks for having me. >> we are looking at pressure with oil right now you are bullish with energy of the g-- energy. give us a sense. oil trading at a one-year low. >> oil is at a one-year low. healthy levels for super major companies. these companies have been able to strengthen the balance sheet because oil was so strong. they have taken a lot of costs out of the system in the past couple years they now run their businesses needing lower oil prices to offer the distribution they need $50 a barrel they trading at values that seem

to be discounting potential for them to continue to return cash to shareholders at this pace of the they-- at this pace. they look attractive >> what is your expense or wti and brent? we heard from dan murphy who spoke with the saudi oil minister hinting at cuts. >> we don't have a price target, per se we believe opec will be proactive and preemptive in managing the oil price we think $70 brent is a fair floor price. at those levels, there is little risk in oil companies and their current returns to shareholders. chevron with a 10% shareholder return yield which looks attractive. >> you were getting the top picks. chevron is your top pick give us other stocks in the

space. >> we believe the refiners have sold off with the macroeconomics concerns and under appreapprecin than past cycles in addition to exposure to refining margins which should remain durable despite some concerns from investors. >> we haven't talked about it yet, but what do you think about china? last week, we had disappointing data they have rosy outlook for q2. >> we see the chinese imports high 1 million barrels per day year over year. despite some of the future concerns of the macro, you are not seeing that show up yet in real-time data with respect to

them importing crude if you back out some of the china demand growth in the second half balances, the market appears it should be sort the second half of the year. despite concerns with the china demand, the second half is constructive >> thank you for being here. we appreciate it jason gabelman turning to the sector services, names like t-mobile is dragging the sector lower let's talk about this with frank lawton i'm messing up the names frank, great to have you here. >> close enough. good to be here. >> why is communication services a lag arrgardlaggard? verizon in the red at&t trading lower what is leading to the big moves to the down side for the big

names? >> the sector has been down for the quarter ands especially in the last early days of june. it has been fears over cash flow and fears over financing with frontier recently, starting on june 1st, there was an article of amazon entering the wireless market those fears are overblown. if you look, amazon doesn't do well when they get in markets that are not as healthy. the company has denied that. it did shake things up for at&t, there were concerns of the free cash flow that is overblown. we think it will rebound in the last half of the year. if you look at another name like t fro frontier, it is down and we don't know the pricing with the fears of the pricing overhang.

it dragged its debt down we see that capitalize and they locked into the financing. they are creating value over the next several years by rolling out fiber to take more market share in broadband at&t is doing something similar. >> i want to be clear. amazon potentially coming into the space. is it that disruptive? a number of mobile and wireless players out there already. what is disruptive of amazon getting in >> the fears from the article is they drop pricing down to low levels it would take what is already a very competitive business and make it worse. amazon would need a network and obvious to use is dish the network is not built out and it would be 70% built out by the end of the month that is less of the opportunity. when you have the company denying that would happen and

that risk is lower longer term, this is a headline risk and we get past that and you focus back on the fundamentals with at&t which is performing well. >> those are the names you like. give us a sense of other names inflows in tech. especially with a.i. how are you viewing the opportunities? >> it is an opportunity, but as we like to say for telecom, the rate of change is slow it will push demand for all things across the communication sector you have to move the data back and forth on the networks of the that is a positive -- networks that is a positive there will be players and to the extent you are building out fiber and broadband, that is a beneficial move.

>> thank you very much thanks for being here. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," how in store and online sales holding up and how that impactis the economy. you will have the exclusive here coming up next on "worldwide exchange." but stephanie got inspire. an implanted device that works inside the body to help her sleep. unlike her sister. there's more than one way to treat your sleep apnea. if you struggle with cpap, look into getting inspire. inspire. sleep apnea innovation. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight.

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downgrades morgan stanley upgrading from neutral to overweight for sentinel one it believes the market is now mispricing the value of sentinel one as a long term share gainer and potential for meaningful margin upside. looking at shares up 5%. jpmorgan chase upgrading carnival cruise line to overweight and raising to $16 target the bank is bullish on the industry trends and sees zero signs of pent-up demand slowing down carnival up this morning 3%. and pahead of earnings, wolfe research is upgrading oracle new price target is $130 shares of oracle up 3.5% right now. tournurning to the consumer ahead of the data with may cpi

and retail sales on thursday despite the worries of inflation with sticky food prices. data from mastercard shows the consumer is continuing to spend. michelle meyer is joining meno for a first on cnbc interview to breakdown the spending pulse michelle, great to see you >> good morning, frank >> i want to hit one data point. restaurant spending up 17% should we take that as the consumer is willing to spend on experience or are there things in the month like mother's day and graduations that may skew the numbers higher >> there are always things with data we always have to take that into consideration. if you look past the month with the trend since the year and last year has been the priority of experience. it has not let up. we see that in the double digit growth in restaurant spending and lodging and air travel and

all kinds of travel. that is something where consumers are looking to prioritize dollars and that is where the pent-up demand rests it is fascinating to see where it plays out we are awaiting that data. >> one thing i want to talk about is ecommerce we see strong ecommerce growth in the reports last month was 13% it was close to 10% or over every one of the months. how do we see how consumers spending online when stores are open >> we continue to see both we have choppiness in ecommerce as you noted, there were a number of special factors like mother's day jewelry and online spending for categories they were notably strong i think consumers are looking for a number of channels

you are seeing ecommerce continue to look strong coming out of the pandemic for categories moving toward online that we have seen prior to the pandemic. we see retail stores come back in a meaningful way w with in-store sales. consumers areevolving with the behavior and preference. >> people's perception of what the fed will do is evolving. cpi is coming up what do you expect do you expect to see a mark decline in inflation do you expect to see it sticky in food and housihousing? >> i will pick all of the above. for goods inflation, last month was a fluke. on a month to month becauses ba

will see a reversal there. for some of the categories like shelter or core services or super core is talked about it has been sticky and higher. it will be until you see the shift in the labor market which you will not see yestet. you will see some relief in terms of food prices now and i suspect that will continue energy prices are coming down. that should allow the headline and core to conttcontinue to moderate headline cpi at 4% not at target. it made significant progress from last summer where we were hovering close to 9% inflation when you think about what that does for the federal reserve, there is progress, but not enough that is what they will reinforce when they speak this week. >> i'll push you forward here. what do you expect when it comes

to the meeting pause or hawkish pause or increase how does that impact the consumer we talk about how stretched the consumer is with the credit card use more >> the latest buzz is skip for the fed. i think that is very consistent with the communication which is they want to take a moment and take time to assess what has happened of late particularly with the flow of credit and cost of capital that is what we will hear from fed chair powell they are looking at all data whether it is the primary data source or labor market inflation and other measures with surveys and the flow of credit and access to capital and how much interest rates are transmitting into the economy they will be flexible. that means they can hike again if they think they are not

making progress to the mandate they are very much leaving options open along with the skip >> michelle meyer from mastercard thank you for joining us ahead on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor somara tneeds to know . first, june is pride month as we head to break, here is barry boot camp founder joe y gonzalez. >> i grew up gay and i was definitely made fun of and left out. what that did to me was it fueled the fire from within. it inspired me to want to grow up into an adult that built a community and culture of inclusiveness at barry's

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retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. welcome back time for the wex wrap-up ubs completed the takeover of credit suisse totaling a $1.6 trillion balance sheet and work force of 120,000 george soros is handing control of the $25 billion empire over to his 37-year-old son alexander. he told the wall street journal he is more political than his father. microsoft is moving the best a.i. researchers from china to canada

according to people familiar with the matter, the switch could affect up to 40 workers. officials say repairs of the i-95 overpass if philadelphia will require a long repair process and could take months. former disney executive michael eisner is looking for a buyer for bazooka gum brand. he is looking for a price of $700 million. and reports that silvio berlusconi, the it alian prime minister, died at age 86 he led four governments until 2011 silvio berlusconi is now dead at age 86. getting ready for the trading day ahead. goldman sachs ceo david solomon will join sarah eiser this

morning. and array dalio will speak at 11:30 a.m. and bertha coombs talks about brian moynahan in the interview from the world medical innovation forum in boston that's at 1:00 p.m. eastern. another news alert wall street journal says the white house plans to let chipmakers from south korea a and taiwan keep operations in china. some are concerned it could weaken u.s. controls and designed to slow down the technical advancements. and the s&p posting a fourth straight weekly gain and brushing off the highest point since last august ahead of the key cpi report tomorrow and fed decision on wednesday. let's bring in sarat sethi sarat, great to see you.

>> good morning. >> sarat, a lot of people are worried about the market oracle ahead of the report and expected to make a.i. announcements and pushing the nasdaq higher. are you concerned about the rally and are you concerned over what we will see from oracle to keep the rally going longer? >> yes, i am having seven or eight stocks be the market is not good for the overall market we need broad based participation. if you see the value sector or financials or industrials or staples or defenses which have not done well. for us to see the market take another leg up, we need those sectors to do well valuation matters, too if you take out the top seven or eight stocks, the market multiple is below where it is today. we need some of the soldiers to

start doing well as opposed to the generals >> i'm not sure the market agrees with you. nasdaq futures up .50% what is your wex word of the day? >> diversification it is really important not to fall in love with the leaders. history has if you stay with the leaders for a long time, something will happen. you need to wait out the opportunities. healthcare is cheap. you look at johnson & johnson or bristol myers or companies that have come back, there is a lot of opportunity there not to say you don't have to own the generals being careful of how much of them you own and what size we own dpgoogle and nvidia and microsoft. oracle is the top holding as well oracle has finally got the recognition it needs let's see what they have to say for the call relative to the other generals,

it is still cheap. look elsewhere you do see fair to reasonable valuations >> sarat, we highlighted oracle trading 20 times forward earnings you have to look ahead to cpi and the fed. do you believe we will see a pause or rate increase it seems the markets are pricing in a pause right now and maybe a cut later on this year >> i think a pause, but i don't know if we will get a cut. it is lagging. as the data comes in, inflation is still strong. we see inflation carrying through for the next 12 to 24 months there could be a potential raise down the road. i don't think you will get dovish commentary. you still have wages high and costs going up demand is still strong whether it is in services or airlines or hotels i don't think the fed will give

you anything dovish. if anything, they will say we are in a wait-and-see period of t the -- period. i think we're in that position where you have to be careful i think there are opportunities. i don't think we will get a cut. >> sarat, you are seeing there could be one more hike give us the data point that could lead that to happen. job growth cpi? what has the fed saying we need to raise rates one more time >> wage growth is important. part of that is the subset of cpi. both those going forward will normalize inflation, not the one -off wages are really important the fed wants to make sure demand is brought down and with that is the cost of inflation. >> sarat, thank you very much.

>> thank you one more news alert. nasdaq buying adenza if this deal is complete, the deal will represent the biggest in nasdaq history. shares down 2% the wall street journal says the seller and transaction is tomo bravo as part of the deal. nasdaq ceo will be on squawk box later today to discuss the deal. looking at shares of nasdaq are down 2%. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is coming up next thanks for watching. i love to give back to the community. i offer what i can when i can. i started noticing my memory was slipping. i saw a prevagen commercial and i did some research on it. i started taking prevagen about three years ago. i feel clearer in my thoughts, my memory has improved

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. good morning stock futures slightly higher with the fed data tomorrow the latest. a tanker truck fire in philadelphia caused part of i-95 to collapse. a section of the vital highway could be shutdown for months. ubs completing the acquisition of rival credit suisse we have an exclusive interview with sergio armotti. it is monday, june 12th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we're all over the place happy monday let's see what is happening with the u.s. equity futures. there are gree