good monday morning. i'm dominic chu live from post nine of the new york stock exchange we have a huge hour ahead. and for that, let's me hand it over to sara eisen who is out just up the road here. we have a lot of power players what will happen >> reporter: good to see you yes, we will talk to ray dalio, founder of bridgewater, about

new warnings on debt crisis, where we are in the debt cycle and also big warnings on what is happening in the political landscape and of course the changing world order around china as well. and we'll talk to toto wolf sdlt sdltf. he is part owners mercedes team and he will talk about the explosion of the formula 1 in the united states. some of the ratings and business issues that surround it. really looking to both of these conversations. >> and we know just how much of a fan you are of auto racing and specifically formula 1 all right, we'll see you in a few moments here but breaking news out of the new york federal reserve and for that we go out to steve liesman who has the latest >> some guardedly good news out of the new york fed and their survey of consumer expectations.

one year ahead inflation expectations falling 0.3 percentage points to 4.1%. that is the lowest in two years. and i can tell you this is not about just gas prices. some of the higher end or more inflationary things like medical care and college education, those fell and responsible for the decline. but not all is good news because long time inflation expectations, the 3 and 5 year both went up you can see the chart there. and the problem is that both are sticky and long term the fed really caress about the 3 and 5 year inflation specexpectations nose house earnings fell a bit. but job confidence, highest level since we've seen since april 2022 and we measure that by looking at the probability of losing one's job, it declined 1.3 percentage point to 10.9%. so still some pretty good numbers there. at least when it comes to the

economy. and also inflation near term that makes the fed's numbers a little bit better in terms of how restrictive it is on a real rate >> just to follow up here, the new york fed is arguably you could say the most important federal reserve bank out there how much do you think this data and this report does shape the thinking around whether or not interest rate policy needs to change or adjust in the coming days and certainly the coming weeks? >> you know, i guess the way you think about it, you have to do this before you do that. and first thing you have to do is get the near term inflation expectations under control they remain hyaigh at 4.1%. so they have to get that near term inflation under control and the belief is that over time that will corral the 3 and 59 y the 5 year expectations. and i think that the fed will be happy not to see it tied

entirely to gas prices so they will say you know what, this 3 and 5 year number is something that tells uswe have to stay the course in terms of keeping rates high if those start to come down, i think that the fed can have a little more sense that maybe it can back off the level of rates. but i don't think that you can do it until 3 and 5 are under control. >> all right we appreciate it staying on the market and risk of a recession, while may's employment report gave hope for a so-called soft landing for the economy, our next guest still believes the possibility of a pullback is growing due to sentiment. joining us now is wells fargo head of equity strategy christopher harvey you mentioned strategy as one of the reasons why. and steve talked about some of

the sentiment with regards to people feeling even more robust and confident about their job, home price expectations on the rise how does it reconcile in your mind >> that is the problem >> or does it. >> it reconciles like this now everything is good you have some peers who are super bearish now turning bullish, you have everyone feeling good about the market, everyone feeling good about the economy. and that is not great because already reflective in things we're going to get some potentially bad macro news from student loan and student loan forgiveness. we may have a bit of a choppy pre-announcement season. and things are overextended at this point in time so i think that it is time for a little bit of a pullback and that good sentiment i think is bad sentiment >> how exactly then from a strategy standpoint do you look at a market that is a stone's throw away from record highs, in many cases have seen record highs for individual stock members of those particular

indices, and what appears to be at least in the last call it a couple of weeks a more broadening out of some of the participation beyond some of the mega cap tech and media names out there. >> so let's talk about the broadening out it makes sense to us you had small caps, mid cap and mid cap growth oversold. and that is beginning to balance. if you look at uber caps, they were overbought. they needed to pull back they are now such a big component of the market, it is hard not to overperform. but the issue is what are you playing for at this point in time what kind of up side do you see. unless you see really big eps growth from this point, it is hard to get excited about the market because we're trading at a 19, 20 times multiple. that is not cheap. so what should investors be doing in that environment. i think the rotation makes sense if they should get a little bit more mid cap -- we like the mid cap exposure more than small cap

because of risk/reward i think that they should be taking a little bit off the top and putting it into -- you can put things in to the front end of the curve and make a decent rate of return be a little less risky you want to be a little more conservative because everything feels a little bit too good, everything is priced pretty healthfully. and at that point, usually things turn and we'll see a bit of a riskoff or pull back. >> before we let you go, are there anymore clear cut signs that you are seeing whether it be in credit markets, whether it be in some of the harder economic data, that lend you to believe that there is -- i only ask this because people have been calling for a recession for the better part of a year now that hasn't really materialized. and now people feel even more confident about their jobs than they have the last year. what will give here? >> so we haven't been calling for a recession. we've been saying it is an economic malaise the consumer is still okay corporations still have money.

but how are you going to price that the s&p is up double digits year to date and it is less than six months into the year unless we're going to get a massive recovery at this point in time, how do you keep that trend going. i don't think that you can and so at this point it doesn't matter whether an economic malaise -- i think that we can agree recession is not in the cards in the near term but really how are equities priced, how is risk priced and i think it is priced -- i think it has got ahead of itself and it needs to come in a bit. >> and what is your s&p 500 target for year end? >> 4200. so we're a bit below the market. we did think the market would bounce but not this much >> all right christopher harvey, thank you very much. the ceo and team principal of the mercedes f 1 team toto wolff will joining us next and plus we have bridgewater

associates founder ray dalio warning on a big cycle sdet crisic debt cris ren era.sihe iamic at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold, new thinking, ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪

formula 1 has exploded over the past few years and liberty, formula 2 media, up more than 25%, that is the parent company and more than 100% since the

netflix f 1 docu-series first debuted back in 019. the rise in popularity for the sport has been a boon for parts of the nfl as well it brought in nearly $350 million in economic activity to the area and estimated to bring in $1.3 billion to las vegas this fall for their first race mercedes has dominated the sport as of late winning eight consecutive construct tore championships between 2014 and 2021 and joining me now is team prince ceo and part owner toto wolff. good to see you. >> good to see you >> and so fresh on everybody's mind, you are here at this conference with lewis hamilton, seven time champion for f 1. his contract is up at the end of the year i know you've been making progress have you renewed it? >> it is great to be in new york i love the city. we're still alking we get this question basically

every race weekend and we have such a good relationship that we dread the moment that we need to talk about money. so it will happen soon >> we need to make some news here soon, do you have a time frame >> i think we're talking more days than weeks. but if i commit to a date, then everybody will ask in montreal over the weekend what happened to the days. >> should you get it done before then it sounds like. >> we're trying hard but we'll talk about it. >> mercedes is a huge global business and lewis hamilton has been at the heart of it. beyond what happens in 2024, he is 38 years old, which is an advanced age for the sport how significant is it to the business having lewis on the team and what happens beyond >> i think from a team perspective, lewis and mercedes have gone back a long time and ten years it has been.

and from a professional relationship, we've gone to a friendship and it has been a wonderful time he is the most important personality in the sport so he is multifaceted, not only the racing, but off track that we need to keep him in the spot as long as possible. what about mercedes as a business you've edged out to martin but still behind red bull. how significant is it for the business that you are running to not be number one, to be number two? >> it is significant and i would give up every profit just to win on track which may sound crazy, but it is how we are calibrated. it is the stop watch that count and less so the p and l. cost cap has changed everything in our environment, we're not allowed to spend above a certain amount so the promised sustainable business case as well but mercedes, we've dominated a long time. we've won eight professional

championships and now red bull is just doing a better job best engineering wins as long as you respect the rules and financial rules, we just immediate to stretch ourselves and beat them. >> is it bad for the sport that max wins every win these days? television ratings in the u.s. are down >> i think people want variability and unpredictability in our business, entertainment follows sport. we have rules. and the one who is beating everybody under the current rules merits the win clearly we'd lick to have more different winners, but again, it is our task to beat them and not create a scripted series >> and you've made some significant improvements to the car. can you be competitive with them this year, '24 >> i think that we will have time we've done a few missteps on the

engineering side, on technical decisions. but it is physics, it is not mystics. so therefore we'll be coming back we had a good result last week and finished second and third. s it is just a matter of time to catch up >> and f 1 is a global business and you run them like global companies. you are not immune to headwinds like inflation and supply chain. what are you seeing on that front? >> i think what we follow is the american league where 20 odd years salary cap was implemented so it wouldn't continue to get out of control formula 1 is always a marketing exercise, but with the cost cap coming in, we have business cases from barely break even event at entities to now very profitable. and it is important for the sport itself >> where does the next leg of growth come from i mentioned liberty. they changed social media and mark

marketing. now they are trying to expand in the u.s. we'll have the vegas race. where do you think the next level growth comes from in the sport? >> i think that formula 1 is three main pillars one is promote them to be there. next is tv and third is sponsorship. and all of those numbers go up still going strongly in some countries big, in others because there is less of variability now, they are quite stable, but generally the sport is growing very strong. >> what about vegas, how important is that to the explosion of f 1 in the u.s. and what are your expectations there about the americanization of the sport? >> miami has done a fantastic job with the second year now and it has become a great, great spectacle. austin was always big last year. we had 440,000 spectators which was the biggest event in the united states. and now las vegas racing in the night on the strip, i don't know if it is -- if it can go any

bigger than that >> yeah, it will be crazy a midnight race. >> i've never been to vegas. >> ever? >> ever. i'm not so much into gambling, so i go there for formula 1, but i'm really looking forward >> all right toto wolff, thank you for your time and mercedes am sgchlt very much very much in the headlines. and coming up next on the show, after what has been called the lost decade and biggest public pension fund in the united states, it is planning to turn back to risk based assets. what that means for the tech ecosystem, that story coming up next plus bridgewater ray dalio just moments away at that same conference there are some things that go better... together. like your workplace benefits... and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together...

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it is tech check time and a sign that money is once again flowing back into technology calpers is looking to expand its venture capital allocation and that is the focus of today's tech check it is amazing that california public employees retirement system sized account wouldn't have as much venture capital exposure what is the necessity for the ramp up and why? >> it may surprise you even more that it hasn't had that foot print. we know in public markets it is all about the magnificent seven, that basket of money caps leading the rally. so now those big investors like calpers are looking to the private markets for a tech comeback as well so friday they set out plans to push further into venture capital as part of its equity

portfolio. so it means we could see the environment for riskier higher growth startups heat up again. we know many funds pulled back last year amid the tech downturn and they are getting interested again. and hedge funds are already back and those with exposure to semis and ai companies are this year's top performers that is the so-called smart money. but calper scht and if other pension funds follow that could mean the average exposure could be increasing. calpers is the biggest public fenk pension fund managing about $452 billion. and it largely missed out on the private equity vc boom of the last decade. but they put its pe program on hold between 2009 and 2018 that was a decision that its latest review acknowledges was a mistake and calls a lost decade,

which begs the question of course can the boom be repeated especially in a different interest rate environment. last year it looked like tech had become too frost thy, but t year it is roaring back and investors are racing to pick the next winners of the artificial intelligence shift and looking to get a bigger piece or at least a piece. as understand, they hadn't been here, so they are trying to correct that >> so deidre, this is interesting because all the companies that you brought up are publicly traded companies that many people already have exposure to either directly or indirectly when you are talking about private equity and venture capital, we're talking earlier to mid stage companies that are not publicly traded, don't have that transparency. so what -- you mentioned interest rate. what does that outlook for secondary market type companies in private markets, what is the outlook for the pricing there

and then how exactly does that play into whether or not they can recoup the lost decade back again? >> that is all up for debate a lot of folks especially here in the bay area think that we're on the precipice of this shift the reason tech can continue to go up is because we're seeing a shift like we haven't seen since mobile, since sfwinternet and te industrial revolution. and that is of course ai and so you are seeing early stage companies saying no revenue with a billion dollar valuation in that ai space, they are finding money quite easily but the instacarts, the stripes that saw huge valuation run-ups the last few years in that environment of easing money, getting knocked down a little bit. so what does it mean calpers is coming in here it is not a huge amount in the grand scheme of things i think it is about $5 billion that they are earmarking but a softbank, some of the most active vcs ramping up, maybe you

could see some bubbly behavior at the later stages while in the secondary markets. but right now, a lot of excitement, a lot of money still sloshing around in the ai space even in the early stages >> so we're looking for a possible first mover type situation that gets other people in deer g d deidre, thank you very much and coming up, we have ray dalio joining us after the break. his warning on a big cycle debt crisis is coming up next plus his take on the political landscape right now in america and june is pride month and all month long cnbc is celebrating by sharing stories of corporate leaders like indeed's senior vice president of esg take a listen. >> the lgbtq+ community is not a monolith there are a lot of letters for the lot of reasons

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this is your cnbc news up update ukraine says it has made its first battleground gains since the skountsdon't t counteroffen. and crews are working to clear the rubble from the collapsed i-95 it could take months to repair the highway which sees 160,000 vehicles on any given day normally a tanker truck caught fire before the collapse and the cause of that fire is under investigation. we have learned that there were no reported injuries a nd more than 6,000 communities in reddit are going dark to protest changes in how they bill third party developers they plan to charge big new fees

to third party apps. and reddit announced the change after learning that its data was being used to train potentially lucrative chat bots like chatgpt. so of course if you think people are making money off of your platform, you want to get a piece of that action >> yeah, of course contessa, thank you. you've all heard about the concerns about debt issuance and liquidity in the market. by some wall street estimates, treasury department is set to issue $1.3 trillion of debt for the remainder of this year and that is causing all sorts of concerns about market disruptions and including our next guest who has said that we could face a potential debt crisis with us now is ray dalio, founder of bridgewater associates, largest hedge fund in the world good to see you. >> good to see you again >> so i think it is important that people understand you've been looking at the world and a lot of these issues that investors grapple with every day through a framework where there

are three main in particular pieces of the puzzle that are changing, that are happening and informing your view what have is going on right now you can tell us how you are relating to all of this. >> these three forces are the biggest in our lifetimes you just touched on one. the largest amount of debt offerings and monetization of debt what is money worth, what is the supp supply supply/demand. we'll talk about that. but second is the political, internal, conflict populism populism of the left and the right at war with each other, and neither side is going to accept losing. that kind of situation that has implications economic, a taxes all of that, but they go beyond that and then number three is the great power conflict in other words, a rise of a

great power like china that is comparable to the united states in that conflict those three things coming together, each one of them is in greater degree than has existed in our lifetime. but if you go back in history, main major time, all three have come together repeatedly like in the 1930 to '45 period and other periods like that. so those three factors made me study the last 500 years of history to watch the dynamic of rise and decline of reserve currencies, debt and also empires. >> so if you bring it to today's issues, we passed a debt ceiling deal, there was a big sigh of relief on wall street about that, and we'll get a lot of treasury -- there are concerns about liquidity issues and whether that comes out of bank reserves, but you're thinking much bigger about what we're facing as a country and debt, right? >> let's look at the mechanics of it a little bit

when -- the economics of a country are no different than the economics of an individual or a company in that you can't spend more than you borrow -- i mean earn. you can't spend more than you earn without getting in to get and if you have debt, you have to pay back the debt the only difference is you can print the money. that is it >> which we cdo >> which we do so what ends that or is there no end to that. >> is there a day of wreck conning. >> two things end that first debt service paymentswrec. >> two things end that first debt service payments, they want to be paid back and plus the interest rate and those debt service payments increasingly encroach on your spending in other words, either this thing compounds or -- and that means that somebody is wanting to buy all that debt, but you have to pay back this one way or another and when that happens,

it encroaches on other spending. so that is debt service is one the other, and the other big one, is the supply/demand balance issue. in other words, when it happens that people don't want to buy enough debt that needs to be sold, you have the bigger crisis debt rollover question and so let's say as we're now going to issue another huge amount of debt, and the owners of that debt, there is a lot of owners of that debt who own too much of it, in fact the main problem that is existing today that is with banks and with other governments and others is they own too many treasuries that are losing money. okay so the silicon valley bank losses and so on and the banking system's losses are largely due including the central bank's losses, federal reserve's losses, are largely due to holding bonds that have gone down in value therefore lost

money and funding with an interest rate that is too high so that dynamic is very, very risky. over the next couple of years, we'll see that supply and demand dynamic. and even if that is not a problem, you have the debt encroaching on the debt service. so it is unsustainable the question is when it is made more unsustainable by -- >> you want to hold so too much of the debt. >> that is one and other countries are increasingly worried about sanctions. in other words, could they be s sanctioned these things can affect demand for the bonds. if you get them to sell the bonds, then it is a real problem. so because that means either interest rates go up a lot or central banks have to come in and print a lot. and that is the thing that we have to be wary of so in either case, we're going to have a debt problem and the

question is how quickly and does it evolve in the way that i've described. debt service payments or rollovers. >> so do you see the u.s. treasury bond as a risky investment right now >> yes, it is very risky risk is not measured in whether you pay back their only obligation is to give you money that they can print. and so history has shown repeatedly that when you are in that position where you can't -- governments can't pay back but their obligation is to pay back that which the printing press can produce, they will give you the money. and so that will cause then the devaluation of money which we're experiencing to a significant degree now but it would be worse. that is what causes a monetary inflation. >> at the same time though, there are expectations that we'll echk willventually have a

recession. but the tightening, eventually -- excess savings runout, that will cause a recession. wouldn't that make bonds more attractive >> what you have, as debt rises relative, debt assets and liabilities rise relative to income, you have to keep the interest rate that the creditor is receiving high enough that they get a good return without having them too high for the debtor and as that rises, that becomes increasingly difficult so now the equilibrium level looks like the following -- you have probably a 1% real interest rate, okay, that would be probably, with something like maybe a 1% real growth rate, together with an inflation rate that is somewhere in the vicinity after settling down between 3.5% or 4% >> that is what you think? >> that is what i think.

nothing precise about that but 3.5% to 4% rate in the good scenario, normal cycle 1% growth rate, 1% real interest rate becomes something like the equilibrium. that is if the supply/demand balance process goes normally. so that would be let's say the more likely scenario so, no, you don't have a recession. you have more of a stagflation, a degree of stagflation. however, we're in that situation where we really have to see whether the demand for these bonds globally will meet the supply >> if you are saying that bonds are a risky investment and you are worried about demand for bonds, what is the alternative, are equities safe in that kind of environment >> equities will always do better in that kind of environment. devaluations of money, the printing of money and so on, supports an equity market relative to a bond market.

it devalues money. so think of debt as debt is a promise to get money and it goes down i learned this like 1971, i'm clerking on the floor of the new york stock exchange. and they have -- >> valuation >> they have a de vvaluation. in other words, they default on the promise to -- >> and market goes up. >> and i learned that they did the same thing march 5, 1933 and the market went up you won't get the gold, we'll print the money. so other things tend to go up more so devaluation on balance. but it would be more like a stagflation environment. closest in our memory would be the '70s >> so would you take a big bet against the u.s. dollar right now? >> it depends against what okay this is a reserve currency, this is true for the euro, this is true for the yen

i have cold as pgold as part of position a little bit. but when you say all the assets, equity, other types of assets that will do better, and so that is a way of being an anti debt, antimony, i'm more of an anti debt/anti--money guy >> how much of your port gfolion gold should you have >> it is almost like cash because the same return over a period of time is sk charact cash, keeps its buying power but when the time comes, it is a big deal so i have a gold overlay and i'd say that the normal gold overlay depending on the nature of the portfolio is somewhere between 10% and 15% of the portfolio. >> and you have mentioned change of the world order >> internal part and external.

internal part changing, you want to talk about that >> sure. the trump indictment is something that investors i think shrug at hard to price in, but you think that we should be paying attention to it. >> i think that i watch people -- they just look at news events and they don't connect the dots. one news event to another. right? so what is the phenomenon that is behind it all the phenomenon is a big break in wealth and values differences that are causing populism. okay it is causing the rich, the poor, capitalists, socialists, it is causing the conservatives and that polarity, which is a win at all cost mentality. donald trump tapped into that for one set of the population. and you're hearing that population to some extent speak. they said we will protect you and we have guns that kind of a thing is going on at the same time so that dynamic i think is

happening. i watch that and i went back into history and that win at all cost kind of demographic -- dynamic is a threat to the system but also you know however it turns out, it will make a big difference think about the changes in tax policy when donald trump came in, the tax cuts boosted equities the changes. we're talking about a redistribution of wealth and power in some way. when you have the three happening together, when you have the financial crisis, and i think at some point we'll have a financial crisis of sorts of the type we talk about, and now the large wealth gap differences and that poll ral polarity. and then the third force which is this external -- >> china >> -- conflict about the world order. you change orders.

you change the domestic order and you change the world order in proceedfound ways >> what should investors do with that almost too big to wrap your arms around >> and the other important thing is to know how to diversify well if you diversify well, you can reduce your risks by up to 80% without reducing your -- think of this way. if i pick roughly equally attractive investments that are not correlated with each other, i get an equal return that each one will have and i have a much less risk in my portfolio. so to know how to diversify well in a highly uncertain world because there were two other factors when i did my study that came out in history that are not in our lifetimes, but we're getting a taste of, big changes in impacts of nature

droughts, flood, pandemics in history have a big effect. no doubt that that will have a big effect over the next -- we're beginning to live that and then technology. over long periods of time people learn and invest new technologies, that creates the world difference and we're creating the greatest shift in technologies that we have seen certainly in our lifetime in terms of artificial intelligence and related matters. so i think that we're going to go through kind of a time warn if i was to take the next 5 to 10 years, the world on the other side will be very different. and the important thing is to realize that what you don't know is more important than anything that you know and that diversification knowing how to diversify is really the most important thing that you can do. >> and we'll take a quick break,

but i do want to talk to you about artificial intelligence because you've been using it at bridgewater for decades. so we'll hear more stay with us if you would. we'll take aui bak qckre and come back with ray dalio in a moment

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companies. as someone who has worked with ai for a long time within trading algorithms, what is your take on generative ai and where do you think we're going >> for about 30 years or so, what i've done is to write down the decision rule, put them into algorithms and i learned the power like creating a chess game that replicates the thinking and then i play and i know that the chess game is smarter than me, i reconcile the differences. but it can process a whole lot more information a whole lot quicker and to do it unemotionally and so on. so i went down that whole path and now i know ai a lot and i know the generative ai and i think -- >> it has beaten you in a lot of chess. >> this is unbelievable, it will be fabulous. >> fabulous? >> fabulous. well, fabulous and dangerous okay the technology is an

unbelievable technology that will create enormous powers. the only issue is the power is the people that is at risk how the technology is used is the risk so we're on this environment where it could either produce a tremendous amount of productivity and raise our and r living standards and make things a whole lot better, or it could be used in this war in various ways to hurt each other. the problem we will face with it is it's not going to be regulated and it's not going to be controlled so it can be used in all different ways. so it will create and contribute to a more disorderly environment. that means many of the things you think in the status quo basis, they will be revolutionized by this, not only usage but also companies as the new company comes along and getting to the power of that it's a great power in my case and in bridgewater's case, there's taking what we have, and

we understand and then working off that technology, and there's also replicating ourselves that it can be better than ourselves and become a partner and become an entity that can challenge us and make us -- >> how do you regulate that, though that's a difficult thing >> that's a question that everybody is trying to ask, but it will be transformative. when i talk about this going through the time warp to a new reality that will seem really different, that's part of it it's all of those five forces when they come together that will take us through that time warp, and so again, how do you invest in that to understand how to diversify well is a generalization debt is not a good investment. those that benefit and know how to use a.i. to turn that into their productivity --

>> has that changed the way you think about companies? >> yes, and not just the developers, but the effective users of it. >> like what like who >> in any of your doumains, i don't care if it's in biology or agriculture, and there will be those that understand it and will make the most of it and there will be those that will be slow to make the most of it and those that are slow to make the most of it will be the disruptive companies >> and that brings us to china, and i want to ask this because you have been there for years and were there recently as well, and we see the worsening relationship between the u.s. and china, and we see what is happening with taiwan and wonder where all this is going. what can you tell us >> very big changes and a very big conflict there were a number of issues that are redline issues and borderline issues.

taiwan chips. investing there. russia, each one of them, they are redline issues they are unable to talk. they are almost counter productive everybody is blaming each other -- >> we are on the brink of a war. >> you are first, economic war. we're certainly on the brink doesn't mean we go over the brink. there's a great deal of fear there's a fear of mutually assured destruction related to this, and being the on brink, and the optimist look is you are self-sufficiently, because being on the brink of war means no longer will be produce things in the most efficient way around the world, but in the most secure way that will have an inflationary affect and so on

some will be more aggressive and it's going to be a lot more brinksmanship. you will see over the near term meetings to try and prevent the worst-case scenario, but the issues will remain that conflict, that brinksmanship will remain and be an important part of our lives >> good intel. thank you for taking the time. ray dalio. after the break, why the debut of cava may turn around an ipo market in the kucurrent market stay with us ut of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq,

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it has been a relatively calm day, but underneath the current there's a lot of stuff going on. i know you have your eyes on some of that >> yeah, we are waiting for a new high for s&p, and we tried on friday and right now we are above that number, but we will see. it's the close that matters not intraday one stock that is moving, and you rarely see a carnival corporate, and this is 76 million shares is that a little a lot? this is like five times normal

volume dom has talked about this and jpmorgan upgraded, and the markets are continuing to hold up well under the soft landing scenario let's talk about ipo -- >> a big one tomorrow. >> it's thursday, actually cava is a fast-food mediterranean. it's bowls, essentially. avocado bowls, and it's green stuff out there. >> it's pretty good. >> the important thing is, they raised the price and this is important because higher potential valuations is a sign the ipo market is opening up, and they are supposed to start trading on thursday and upped it to 19 and 20 this morning. the most important thing to get the stock market going and get the ipo market going is the stock market going up, and when the headlines say the s&p at a new high, and that's a sign for

a lot to go public and that's when you start seeing people raising the prices on ipos and coming out, and we have been talking about this for a long time, potential candidates, companies like reddit, for example, and armed, that would be a 30, 40, 50 billion valuation. there's a dozen other companies out there including restaurant chains >> panera bread potentially going to go public soon. we havedozens of companies waiting. once you start seeing companies, s&p at new highs and companies are raising prices, that's a new high >> how much would you gauge the sentiment for the rest of the general market >> i think we will have to talk about this on "etf edge" in half an hour, and they will say once

you see them raising prices that's a sign people are serious about coming forth i will watch in the next few weeks, and i want the list to get longer it's still early >> eyes on cava right now. eyes are on carnival that does it for us here on "squawk on the street. let's send it over to scott wapner and the "halftime report." >> welcome to the "halftime report." i am scott wapner, front and center now a huge week looms for your money. we will discuss and debate what the investment committee, what is really at stake joining me for the hour today, joe terranova, steve weiss there's the s&p, 4313. we are on a four weak win streak, as we said