the problem is the falloff of the convention business. >> it's really sad. fedex after the bridge collapse on i-95 saying they're continue to monitor the situation. >> going to be months before it's back in use. >> a 45-mile detour to get around with it >> thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from the new york stock exchange. we begin with the winning stream for stocks and it's more than just tech pulling the markets along. the dow on pace for its best month since november tomorrow the inflation report and wednesday the fed decision here's your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. discretionary and tech the leaders today. intel is the big winner out of the dow.

oracle leading tech ahead of its earnings that letads us to the talk of th tape, the critical 48 hours ahead. >> let's talk to our panel gabriella santos, stephanie link, our own steve liesman. let's begin the conversation steve, what a time what a time for a fed meeting. we have the new bull market allegedly started. i wonder what they must be thinking about this as they sit down at the table tomorrow >> reporter: yeah, i'm not sure how happy they would be about the bull market. there's a wealth effect issue. i don't think that's the top of the issues they're concerned with right now i think what happens, scott, is unless you get a massive upside surprise on the cpi report that

they take this pause they want to see what they've done i think the chairman has concerns about the banking issues out there i think he has concerns about the effects of policy. they may want to give the treasury a chance to rebuild its c coiffures. he's going to try to dance this dance and say we're not taking it off the table it's not a skip. the skip implies we'll definitely hike. what he said last month was the only forward guidance we're giving you is we're looking at the data they're going to take a look at it and see if all the things we talked about just a minute ago are going to be things that help bring inflation down to the 2% target. >> gabrielle, the dow jones is over 34,000 and the s&p 500 up

one half of 1%, more than 20% off the lows i think it surprised you that we've been as resilient. what now >> as it pertains to the macro data, what's interesting to see is this month's cyclical rally you seeing that going down the market cap spectrum. small caps up 7% you see that in rates as well with a two-year yield up 56 basis points over the last six weeks. the prevailing macro narrative is higher chances of a soft landing. slow disinflation in the super core higher for longer on rates and the u.s. is doing better than everybody else all those narratives are a bit fragile. whether they break this week already or it takes a little longer remains to be seen. ultimately we see disinflation picking up speed we see soft landing unlikely to

be a steady state. the recession risk is still elevated we see the rest of the world not doing as badly as the headlines suggest. really a critical time. >> steph, is it time for those who have been -- i know you're looking at me like it's a loaded question i'm not saying you've been extremely negative is it time for those who have been to put the bear suits back in the closet? >> it's not going to be an easy even ride between now and into the end of the year. the economy is holding up better than expected. it's holding up because the consumer is doing really well. look at the carnival cruise bookings numbers they're off the charts the consumer is doing well the job market remains tight wages are still there. it's been the same narrative all year long and the economy is holding up and that's helping at least the earnings picture not collapsing

>> it's helping the everything picture. it's helping the everything picture. the stock market picture would not be as pretty as it is today without what you said. >> what's interesting is how much growth is outperforming value year to date talk about mean reversion. growth is up 28% value up 1 and it's the same thing that happened last year except it was reversed value outperformed growth. something has to give, scott some of these moves have been big. i hope we see a broadening out >> steve, i wonder if mark zandy is on to something he tweeted this morning odds that a downturn is dead ahead are recedreceding the idea that maybe this time is different. we as market watchers and the fed as policymakers need to look at the fact that maybe this time is different you have a tremendous amount of

excess savings you have labor hoarding. you have low leverage. you have all these things in place that made the mattress like five stories tall for the fed to pull this off at the end of the day i'm not saying they're going to, but we're at a much more cushioned place today than many thought we would be. >> reporter: yeah, scott, calling this the gadot recession, the one we wait for but never comes -- as you'll see in our cnbc/fed survey tomorrow respondents have pushed ahead by another two months when they think the recession will begin i want to answer this two ways emotionally i'm afraid to take my eye off the ball and say there won't be a recession i'm afraid it will happen if we do that. intellectually, i see the case

the case is we have this high level of employment. there was an extraordinary bank of america note over the weekend that said their low income clients are doing better than their high income clients and they're not using credit cards as much and don't seem stressed which i thought was extraordinary. there's a lot of things pointing to that. for my money, the two most important pieces of the detail, thursday with the retail sales report and i want to see the jobless claim number because we had that tick up last week that could be a concern i want to see if there's wa weakening in the jobs market. >> gabriella, the idea that the economy has surprised some people was something david solomon talked about. >> the u.s. economy has been incredibly resilient i have been surprised.

i certainly predicted given the economic tightening we've seen a bumpier ride i think we're in an uncertain moment. >> we're obviously still in an uncertain moment have we got a little more certainty to this point? when does that start to translate into, you know, your view that, okay, maybe we're not going to have the kind of landing that i thought we might and it's time to get more positive on the stock market >> i think it's a matter of timing i think what we've learned is indeed that mattress was really, really large in terms of all the stimulus that consumers received, how low credit was going into this year, but the mattress is getting thinner and thinner, right consumers have spent excess savings. debt service as a percentage of disposable income is back to normal student loan payments are going to return in august.

businesses as profits are shrinking and credit is tightening are going to have to make some tough decisions. really because it hasn't happened yet still maintains it all ends in a recession. >> in two years? >> rates are too high right now. this is a golden opportunity to use this backup in yields to extend duration. to me it does not make sense we fully have taken out rate cuts by the end of the year and rates next year are expected to be at 3.6% this is our main conviction call around this view of a little bit less resilience in the economy going forward. >> you know what might happen if we get a better cpi tomorrow, rates might soften the fed does nothing on wednesday and at some point it may be deemed, steph, that this great alternative you've had for

the first time in forever isn't so great anymore and that equities are the place to be >> it's entirely possible. i would say go to cyclicals because they're cheaper. if we can have a soft landing then the growth is better than expected i mentioned the consumer before. core bank lending is up 5% analyzed basis so much for the bank debacle i'm not saying we're not going to have more problems, but we kind of blew that out of proportion let's think about housing. housing has been strong. we're seeing a revival there there's parts of the economy doing well we'll slow down before, but maybe we can avoid a hard landing and that's good. >> steve, powell, i'm assuming, is going to lean heavily on data dependent. not that he hasn't in the past, but it may be more a pro po than

ever >> reporter: yes, i think he's talking about changing the guidance regime. before we could be sure of what he was doing now i think we can be sure he'll pause this time around remember, he made those comments late may and sent out jefferson to underscore or redirect policy to that place. the key is that now he's in the data dependence guidance regime is the technical way you want to put it remember, they're not just looking at the data. they're trying to understand the cumulative effects and stephanie is absolutely right. i came armed with this data. the lending data is up and the deposit data, steph, is also up, which is interesting too this banking thing which is something that stayed powell's hand, i don't know

i have 7% year over year on loans and leases from domestic banks being up it's not feeling like the banking crisis it's calmed down quite a bit scott, it's a data dependent guidance regime and we have to follow the data along with jay powell and the fomc. >> it's not like powell lives under a rock, steve. he goes to concerts as we've learned recently my question to you is, when david solomon says -- i know you're happy he was at the concert he was at because you're a fan. the u.s. economy has been incredibly resilient is what i played solomon saying. do you think powell is heartened by that or discouraged by that >> reporter: well, i think he wants to see some softness he wants to see -- look, he has this equation. the equation is simple core services x housing, that

service sector, is about 61% of the cpi. he thinks that is driven by the labor market and wages the only way to keep labor market and wages from driving that portion of inflation is to loosen up the job market he doesn't want a recession. he doesn't want massive unemployment lines he wants to see a labor market that's not as tight as it is so, if it went up to 4%, if it was at 4.5% we would have been happy in prior times it's a lot, but the question is can we get there to gabrielle's point as the mattress savings have gone down, you have this surge of unemployment so you have wages that upset it. that's the whole case there for the soft landing you have wages and jobs replaced by the issue of -- savings

replaced by wages. the only other thing i saw was the morgan stanley call this weekend for a sharper decline in earnings that could be the achilles' heel. >> is this a soft landing in the market and that's why we're in a technical bull market, why stocks continue to ramp up, why maybe it's broadening out? is that what it's about? >> i don't think the market was taking a hard landing before june because it was driven by tech i think since june the chips are being put in the soft landing camp we'll be watching retail sales and the soft burn of higher -- we would stick to the quality factor and a defensive tilt. >> i feel like, steph, i know you want people to look at the value that exists in cyclicals because that's the game that you

play you feel like it's hard to make that case at the current time because of the uncertainty that david solomon suggests exists? you just go where the gains are. why make it more difficult on yourself if there's a recession to come? >> because the games are expensive. those stocks that led the market, they'll account for the entire performance of the overall s&p 500. >> if the earnings projections have been reset, not just nvidia, for the space as a whole, doesn't that change the expensive equation a little built? >> for sure, but there are a lot that are very expensive and extended i'm not saying don't own growth, don't own tech i've been buying tech all year long i'm still underweight, but there's other things in the market that are compelling look at the industrial companies, on shoring, off

shoring, china, that's very compelling those estimates are going higher >> we'll leave it there. steve liesman, thank you ladies, thank you for being here. let's get to our twitter question of the day. are you starting to get more bullish on stocks? you can heat to "closing bell" on twitter to vote. let's get a tip on top stocks to watch. kristina partsinevelos joins us with that. >> reporter: lease start with neo jumping. they say they're cutting the prices of their vehicles they delayed projects due to cash flow. shares are up over 9%. as you have mentioned, analysts are getting on board with the cruise lines. jpmorgan upgrades carnival as well as royal caribbean. each of those names hitting

52-week highs and let's signal out carnival that's up 13%. i still have yet to go on a cruise, scott. >> you and me both. >> reporter: i didn't know that. >> kristina, thank you we're just getting started up next microsoft and activision under fire the ftc setting their sights on that merger plan we'll hear from a microsoft shareholder on his take. later amd's big ai event we'll bring you a rundown of what to expect you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. take a look at stocks. nice day going tfor the dow in the midst of its best month since november trying to close above 34,000 for the first time since may 1st we'll keep our eyes peeled on that the ftc preparing to go after microsoft's acquisition of bli blizzard steve kovach joins us now with the details. >> reporter: we're expecting the ftc to block microsoft's purchase of activision if the judge approves the ftc's

injunction, it stops microsoft from closing the deal. the first hearing in that case is happening in early august if the judge rejects the request, then microsoft has a slam dunk and will likely prevail in the lawsuit overall that's why microsoft president brad smith sounded positive in his statement about the ftc's action microsoft thinks it will have a better chance convincing a federal judge. microsoft in the middle of its appeal with the uk's competition markets authority which rejected the deal already that first hearing happened today. this new injunction from the ftc could give microsoft a path forward to get the job done in the u.s. >> have we heard from the activision ceo yet i don't believe we have. >> reporter: nothing from the activision side. i'm told they'll have a response after the injunction gets released. >> the stock is for the most part hanging in there as all of

this legal wrangling may lie ahead. steve, thank you steve kovach with the latest for more on what this means for microsoft, let's bring in mal malcolm ethridge what's your reaction you surprised? >> i'm surprised i thought this acquisition was dead in the water. i'm surprised to see that microsoft has managed to breathe more life into it. i don't know that it's going to be all that additive as a shareholder of microsoft everything gpt related, everything generative ai related and open ai related is going to drive the story for microsoft through the end of this year into next year i think losing out on the activision acquisition could have been one of those things that microsoft looked at a decade later and said there was our opportunity. i don't think near-term

shareholders will feel much of a difference. >> this still might be dead in the water. in fact, i think expectations were somewhat low that this would get through the biden administration's ftc >> well the biden administration's ftc is trying to make sure they prove they have teeth there were probably a few of these deals that shouldn't have gone through early that did go and this is the one we're sticking with even though it has looser restrictions, looser realistic issues with monopoly so, whether it goes or not, i don't know i think this is a place where she wants to plant a flag and say, i did that. as far as being a microsoft shareholder, i don't know that it matters one way or the other as far as the share price is concern. >> well, i mean, it's up 36% year to date it's 53% off its 52-week low

how do you view it here? has it come a little too far are you reassessing the size of the position you have as a shareholder? i know you've been doing that with other stocks in your book. >> i did reassess and trim my position in microsoft a couple weeks back my concern was what you laid out. it got way too hot for where we are in the market. right now there's an opportunity to come back -- come and buy back in somewhere in the 200s, 250ish range we might get a pullback in those largertech names i didn't blow out of it completely, but i think for folks holding microsoft, apple, google, things like that that are holding 50 plus percent returns year to date, there's nothing wrong with taking a profit here. it's an opportunity to get out of the way, let the market do

what it's going to do and trim that position. >> you must be negative in the market if you think big tech is going to have a pull back. >> i think the market is going to power forward the conversation you had earlier about halpert jumping in and saying we missed that tech trade and we don't want to do that again, as you know, institutional managers tend to follow what they do. jeffries shows that 9.1% of large cap growth managers are overweight in tech all of a sudden you have a lot of institutional managers having to buy back into tech positions they sold out of last year expecting that the tech trade was dead and they were wanting to rotate into whatever they thought was going to come. i think we'll get a second wave of buying into these seven or

eight tech names, but i think with the headwinds coming from the fed, inflation, the regional banks and everything else, it's unlikely the market will continue going up. i want to make sure i get out of the way for when the inevitable happens. i think from a positioning standpoint i'll get an opportunity to buy back some of my favorite names for a little cheaper in a few weeks. >> i find that so interesting that you -- you think the chase is on, so to speak, yet you want to get out of the way of it rather than try and, you know, ride every last bit out of the incredible gains that we've already seen what if the worst is really behind this market i mean, do you believe that the bulls are back in control? are you not convinced? >> i think the bulls are back in control. as i mentioned, institutional investors will follow what retail investors have been doing and what they've been in control

of through the course of this year it's that mega cap tech trade once again i think we're going to get market breadth it's going to broaden out and not be the same seven or eight names and it's because they have to find what are the other stocks we can rely on to get indi nvidia-like returns and that's where the broadening of the market will come from. to your point, scott, nobody ever went broke taking a profit. i think there's the opportunity to have it both ways and not get crushed trying to be too greedy sitting on a 50% year to date return. >> of course that's well articulated too. your top ten holdings, united health is in there it's been a disappointment amazon, apple, microsoft, crowd

strike, alphabet, intel is one of the big winners today how do you view united health and health care in general when some say it's time to get defensive? >> united health care is one of those that it's really hard to find the right time to buy it. it reminds me of nvidia. the difference between them is united health care has more power in it than one particular story. united health care is that name that as we're seeing the covid unlock, you have a lot of people who delayed elective procedures and all those things during covid that are finally getting out and getting them done. that's been the catalyst for unh. share price could go up. there hasn't been a great opportunity to buy in as a shareholder. you have to hold your breath and buy into strength. it's been one of our best holdings it's one of the largest holdings among our clients.

as we continue to allocate that way, it's benefited us to be in the right place at the right time. >> last year no doubt about that this year remains to be seen malcolm, thank you up next, oil tanking today our next guest sees an upside in the energy space. throughout the month of june cnbc is celebrating pride, sharing stories of corporate leaders with you i often get asked why do lgbtq people need different health care. our lives are completely different by virtue of who we are and who we love. when we build our families, it's a completely different experience in a world where people like to think that maybe things are more equitable -- and we've come a long way -- the reality is our

experiences are different. i would invite folks who are not the members of the community to elevate the voices of folks who are and to listewhy n it's different and we have different needs.

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back on "closing bell. oil tumbling today taking energy stocks with it west texas crude falling $68 a barrel stephanie link is still a believer in emergency stocks >> it's ugly >> why are you in it then? >> i think there's value i think you're going to see this balancing act between excess supplies from iran and russia versus saudi arabia cuts in terms of production. it's going to lead to vol volatility, but i think it remains relevant you have the u.s. refilling the

spr, very slowly, but they're not going to be flooding the markets with the spr if oil and crude can stay above 50, which i think it can, then these stocks are minting money it's all about free cash flow in the energy sector. it's the valuations that are super cheap. >> crude down more than 4%. >> it's ugly. >> china hasn't been nearly as strong as you or anybody else suggested or hoped or figured that it would be at this point. >> china is hard china services and the consumer is doing a little better in terms of the re-opening versus the industrial part of their economy. they might have a stimulus, right? there's all kinds of speculation. if they do and it grows a little bit better, 5% gdp, that's plenty for the crude markets to stay, again, above 50. it's at 68 it will be painful if it gets there. >> let's say crude's 55, these

stocks aren't going to do anything. >> they aren't going to do anything, but they'll generate value because they'll have a lot of free cash flow. think about chevron, they're buying back 15 to $20 billion of stock. diamond back energy, they have $2.1 billion in free cash flow these companies are doing stuff underneath the scene -- you know, underneath the surface that i think eventually gets rewarded. >> are you overweight in energy? >> i am. >> overweight energy unde underweight tech at what point do you say i'm out of balance >> the s&p is 5% and i'm 7%. in tech and comp services, i've

31% weight on a risk adjusted basis i have more exposure on technology. you know me, i like to barbell it add a little bit of growth and value. >> the barbell you want to have reasonably even. you don't want to end up like this. >> that's how you make money over the long run. i try to be a contrarian and look for quality companies that are truly on sale. these stocks are definitely on sale and they're doing the right thing. >> who do you like best, diamond back, chevron -- >> i like them all slb is exciting. they have a goal of getting margins to 25% over the next five years >> thanks for sticking around. up next, we're tracking the

biggest movers as we head to the close. we have about 20 minutes or so left chrikristina partsinevelos is standing by. >> reporter: nevardas is looking for one blockbuster acquisition and shares are jumping i've have the details next (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley.

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partsinevelos with a look at the key stocks she's watching. >> reporter: i'm watching toast. toast is a point of sale system for restaurants and its technology will be available for food and beverage outlets within select and canadian marriott hotels the stock is up 33%. shares of novartis are down about 1% after announcing it would snag shenook therapeutics. they could pay $4 per share if the late stage kidney disease drug reaches a lot of milestones their stock is up almost 58% right now. scott? >> kristina, thank you. another mover we're watching

is illlumina their cnbeo is stepping down immediately. the board has been pushing for the removal of the ceo the board will begin a search for successor. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we're asking are you starting to get more bullish on stocks you can head to cnbc on twitter to vote. dow is up 200 points

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let's get the results of our twitter question we asked are you starting to get more bullish on stocks the majority of you said, yes, i am 56.4%. up next your earnings rundown. oracle reports in just a few minutes in "overtime." that stock hans been on fire up 6% as we speak. we'll tell you exactly what to watch for. that and more when we take you inside the market zone

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♪ ♪ we're now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. plus kristina partsinevelos on amd ahead of its ai event tomorrow frank holland on oracle who reports earnings in "overtime" today. that stock has been on fire lately we've had a pretty good day here. >> yes pretty tough to resist chasing and therefore you're seeing some chasing. the market continues to kind o eat through all these potential fears put in front of it today very much on notice, the treasury issued $200 billion worth of new secretary securiti.

who knows if it's going to prove to be something for this market? you have that and all these different levels the s&p has blown through, including i think one of the last barriers that the bears were putting up there, which was this 4,320 or something like that. the market has earned more of the benefit of the doubt, but in the very short term. seems a little bit chasey and too cute to running into the highs as you get probably a benign cpi report and the fed. eight months ago to the day was the peak inflation report and the cpi. >> eight months ago today? >> absolutely. everything is lined up in that direction. you had the peak inflation right before the midterm elections now you're up 21%. you rebuilt valuation. now the biggest stocks in the

market look like they're getting extended overall, typically this isn't the kind of thing where you tag this level and unwind it all. >> have to see how many bears fall through the wayside jonathan krinski is holding on to the death of the bear is overexaggerated. >> and i get it. you're seeing some of the economic concerns in the market. it's not been a real year move with credit lining up and small caps lining up more to prove, i totally agree, but at this point -- okay. if it's a new bull market, what do you do? maybe you let equity exposures let up a little bit. maybe it's for buying and not getting out. that's the kind of behavioral

change that might come. >> kristina, you have this amd event looming. the stock is up 56% and up 82% in six months. >> reporter: definitely riding that ai train, but when you compare it to nvidia, it's not as high. amd is hosting this ai data center event tomorrow and it's expected to shed light whether amd can compete with nvidia hardware nvidia's three-month chart shows the difference in stock price, 71% versus 55% with amd's upcoming event, they're exhibiting their new chip and it has a shot there's unknowns about how it will perform with ai applications it's not just the chip, but how the chip works in the ecosystem.

the street likes it. web bush increased it from 50 bucks to $145. ubs went from $95 to $155. the bears worry about amd's margins. it's going to have to be price competitive to nvidia. tomorrow i'll be interviewing ceo lisa su on "overtime" and we'll go over all that. >> we look forward to that speaking of the web bush note, they talk of amd as if it's a two-horse race between that company and nvidia with amd being the closest competitor to nvidia. >> reporter: that was would be a wonderful spot for amd that puts amd in a good spot to be one of two players in both of

those large markets. nvidia isn't like that intel isn't like that. >> we'll see we look forward to your interview. kristina, thank you. you have a comment >> i'll be interested to see when the earnings estimates for amd will bulge they haven't done much for the quarter or the full year you didn't see a lot of forecasts for nvidia before they had their surprise on guidance a little bit apprehensive when you see the market grabbing for the next player to kind of mimic a move from the leader you're forgiving these companies that are not as leveraged to the big, exciting trend. >> not every guide is going to look like nvidia >> it's not. now we're going to talk about oracle being a direct ai play. >> what do you say about that frank holland? >> you know, i don't know if

it's a direct ai play, but oracle has been a low profile valuation play it's also outperforming the nasdaq 100 here's what everybody is talking about oci has a partnership with nvidia it's a small player in cloud infrastructure it's about 2% of the market when it comes to be a hyperscaler still seeing large and accelerating growth. cowen forecasted 70% growth is something to watch oracle and nvidia, a partnership there, during earnings the information reported the company will detail plans for access to large language models to customers to compete with the azure ai hype.

>> mike, guidance matters. you can make the case it matters more than ever for this select group of stocks, the seven plus or ten or whatever number. now, as you said, nvidia changed the game they changed expectations for everybody to some degree. >> right, and the premise is that there's this urgent investment boom going on as companies try and build capacity in this area frank's right, oracle looks like the inexpensive way to get at this it's worth noting, oracle itself hasn't trading at 21 times earnings except for five minutes at the end of 2021 it's been this kind of cheaper, free cash flow, slow and steady player as opposed to one that's har nesting itself >> thank you, frank holland. i thought that was broadcom, though >> right. >> same narratives about

different stocks that are the cheaper way to play x. >> yes it will work for a bit maybe if there is genuine earnings upside beyond what we thought before, sure, let's price it in now. i think the ai source of energy in this market is not to be dismissed, even if the stocks themselves look like they've run ahead of themselves and maybe longer term the returns aren't that great because, as i said before, you kind of need a reason for optimism that's not just, hey, maybe we won't slide into recession and maybe it's not more of a defensive move it's certainly part of the story of why the market has gotten to this point, along with some of the consumer stuff that hasn't quit, hasn't given way just yet. >> we have barely 30 seconds left where's tesla? is this the 12th straight day? >> yeah.

it's a streaky market right now. we're running into a little bit of -- >> good day for stocks next up "overtime. i'll see you tomorrow. [ closing bell ] more gains for stocks today. the s&p touching a new 13-month high welcome to "overtime." i'm morgan brennan with john fortt. we'll talk to the ceo of midstream. his first tv interview since the passage of the debt ceiling. plus, we're awaiting earnings from oracle which closed higher today.