craig melvin: that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thanks for watching. [music playing] good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. >> european equities open higher as investors gear up for a big week of central bank action with traders betting the fed will hold >> they can take a pause on that and most people think they will. that is what the market is saying they can't say i'm done of the they don't know. they need the next set of data

sterling spikes at the fastest pace outside of the pandemic with a double oing of e interest rate hike we will talk to gareth davies. and china's central bank cuts the rates for the first time in ten months as they look to avert sliding in the economy. and apple shares close at a record high above $183 after unveiling the vision pro headset last week. the first product line since 2014 sto a lot going on today we are keeping our eyes on the pci number and it is a big week

of central bank action the fed is expected to hold rates steady on wednesday as inflationary pressure seease we will get more later today otherwise, we have central banks in europe and japan meeting with the ecb expected to raise rates by 25 points on thursday and the bank of japan is expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged on friday. the fed is taking center stage analysts are expecting it to pause its hiking cycle after ten rate increases consecutively you see the expectation is 80% leaning toward a pause or a skip where 20% are indicating a 20% probability of a 25 basis point hike this is up from 71% at the beginning of the week. speaking with the u.s. colleagues, bank of america ceo

brian moynahan says the fed can afford to pause. >> the economy is slowing down it will be a soft landing. our economists think it will be a recession and mild recession unemployment moves up. that used to be full employment, honestly it is not quite disruptive they can take a pause on that. most people think they will. that is what the market is saying they can't say i'm done. they don't know. they need the data >> goldman sachs ceo david solomon is not ruling out a rate hike >> we have slow growth and inflation which is sticky. you have to be cautious. it may not be recession, but it feels like recession with 0 to 1% growth. >> i'm not referring to this week, but i think inflation is stickier i think in the distribution of

outcomes, there is a chance rates go higher. i'm not saying they will go there, but you have to be prepared for that. >> with the fed in focus tomorrow and u.s. cpi print in focus today, equities are off to a good start it is risk-on when you look at the surface. strong demand for cyclical sectors and less demand for defensive. the stoxx 600 is up 0.3% this follows the strong session in asia overnight and strong close on wall street the nasdaq reached the highest left since april yesterday s&p 500 closed at a new one-year high look at the boards the ftse 100 up just seven points points we got hot labor market from the uk piling pressure on the bank of england to raise rates further

and sending sterling higher of the cac 40 in france is trading higher by 0.5% leading the gains. dax is holding up well up .30%. let's move to the sectors. you have basic resources out in front by 1.8%. we were up more this morning this comes not only after a strong session on wall street yesterday and asia overnight, but in the headlines, the pboc cutting the policy rate and providing support for the chinese economy. that sector is sensitive technology doing well up 1.6% following the trade yesterday stateside. real estate is down 1.3% the defensive sectors are utilities and telcos and healthcare under foreperforming as for wall street, all three

indices pointing up. the dow jones industrial average is looking to gain 18 points. >> julianna, you and i were talking about this yesterday there has been resilience in the market if you look at a 10,000 foot look at what is going on, the s&p is back to one-year highs is surprising if you drill down deeper into the details, what is evident is a handful of stocks leading the performance. if you strip out the mega cap tech stocks, it is flat on the year it tells you what is going on which is out performance from the tech stocks and that goes hand-in-hand with the frenzy of a.i. that we have been talking about. >> that is what i was going to sa say. it is hard to gather the rally

with the boom in tech with the fundamentals and earnings expectations based on the a.i. opportunity versus the expectation now the federal reserve is going to pause and what it means for the tech companies. the hurdle for what drives tech stocks higher has come down. we are not talking about rate cuts we are not talking about that this year. the tech stocks are higher >> the market creates the narrative. we were talking about the rate cut in the second half of the year with the likely recession or slowdown in data. we have not had recession. the market has un-priced the probability of the rate cut. we are going into the important fed meeting tomorrow and the market is happy with the narrative of a pause or a skip that is sufficient for investors

concerns about a lot more tightening to go and put to the side now the feeling is that even if the fed do have one more hike in them, we are close to the end of the cycle. now that is sufficient for markets to keep going higher even if the narrative around rate cuts is dismissed >> maybe that is the sweet spot. the narrative is not around rate cuts or a number of hikes, but pausing or maybe one more hike the sweet spot narrative is can the fed achieve a soft landing are we sitting here now? that is whether is taking shape. the markets like the idea of the pause. you see signs the u.s. consumer is slowing we have seen that in the luxury names. you are seeing consumers in the u.s. spend more on credit and eat into the savings which have taken them so far to date. you wonder if that is going to

gain more momentum and tip the u.s. economy in the wrong direction. >> we will get an important signal for u.s. data later today with the u.s. cpi number the expectation is the pull back on the core inflation number and headline as well implications for the fed and what it means for the next hiking cycle does it matter for stock markets? we will figure that out later today. >> let's continue the conversation about markets with harry colvin from longs view economics. harry, pleased you could make it on to the program this morning i'm curious with your take that the conversation that joumanna and i were having with the rally in tech stocks in the u.s. they led the charge and led the u.s. markets higher by a large margin s that -- nasdaq hitting the highest level. do you think it is justified

>> thank you for having me on the show a few things driving the rally in tech. one in particular is the extra liquidity we had as the trea treasuries drawn down the balance with the fed the margin has been a positive change in liquidity environment which is fueling that. let's also remember the markets were bearish a couple of months ago. a rally in equities is the trade and liquidity fueled and a frenzy around a.i. the new buzz world this is a short-term phenomena i feel this is nearing exhaustion >> you talked to asset managers and they have been bearish throughout the year and waiting for the economy and market to turn it just hasn't happened yet. have we seen capitulation among

the bears or are they still holding out? >> we are close to capitulation if not already that is showing up in all kind of indicators. the outstanding volume of call options has gone to high levels. the levels that would normally mark a local high in equities. you look at the proprietary indicators they are pretty extreme. risk appetite is strong. it is overdone to the upside markets are pumped up. interestingly, the language is starting to change the narrative is these stocks should be in a bubble. nvidia at 16 times earnings. that is justified. as soon as you see the narrative change, it is coincidence. >> harry, i want to pick up on another thesis which is to do with the liquidity situation over the next couple months.

we know the treasury is planning on rebuilding the reserves that means a ton of treasury bill issuance. many are saying that could take liquidity away from other assets or longer data treasury bonds. what, to your mind, is the broader impact of the treasuries to rebuild the reserves? >> i think you are right i think it will suck liquidity out and negative for risk assets and that is one reason why we are likely to see weaker equity markets in the next several months what treasuries do in that environment is we're due for a rally in treasuries. they are oversold on lots of measures particularly in the macro environment continues to deteriorate. it seems like it will. money is far too tight the conversation is changing

we are starting to see it full that is normal ahead of the recession. the bond equity correlation. the equity selloff bond rally. the outlet for treasuries is positive >> positive for treasuries you sound bearish on stocks. what is the best way to express your view with the markets and where they are headed? how are you planning for the pull back? >> under weight in u.s. equities this is the part of the global market which is frothy japanese is frothy as well it is building in the last ten years is where the excess has been funneled. i think there say large rating to come there. that is one way.

overweight bonds, overweight credit, overweight cash. we are defensively positioned. >> harry colvin at longview economics. thank you. one key driver of the action we're seeing in basic resources in europe has been china central bank which cut the short-term lending rate for the first time in ten months as it looks to reduce the demand. it is looking to reduce the rate to 1.9% injecting 2 billion yuan it could cut longer term rates in the coming weeks. that is part what have is driving the sentiment around the china story more broadly this morning pairing the yuan back to the six-month low against the u.s. dollar. >> a big macro event that happened overnight which is influencing markets today in asia. coming up on "street signs," italy mourns the death o

iah, these bills are f former prm berlusconi prinsurance policy of prime minister berluscsilvio ben of berlusconi we will discuss more when we return cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go

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welcome back to "street signs. italy will hold a state funeral on wednesday for the prime minister silvio berlusconi now there are questions of who takes over the party and how the party moves forward. i want to take a look back at where berlusconi's legacy. he has been a looming figure for so long over the italian political scene. of course, it is not without controversy. he was charged over tax evasion and bribery and corruption and he is beloved by the public. what do you make of that

dich dichotomy? >> he was able to bounce back from the allegations he was convicted once and sentenced to time in prison, but did not spend time in prison because of his age he ended up doing civil service. it seems as many of those who conspire against him, is what he was saying, seem to think he was always able to create laws to help him get out of whatever mess he was in he was in italian politics for decades. he came in in '94. he was actually the longest standing prime minister. five years and the last time when he left in 2011 from the '90s to 20 02011, he ws always there he touched a chord with italians because he made himself from

real estate to a media mogul he used his media knowledge in the public and political ventures he was always able to get by >> just quickly. what does it mean for the media empire that he built up? >> right now, media is where it was 1999 with the market cap has fallen incredibly since then we are talking about the media group that is not in the same situation it was there we know how the media sector is moving they are trying to create the pan-european media group it has been an object of an attempt to takeover. there is a lot going on. the question will be, you know, which of the children will be taking on the role of the holding company. the decisions that might be made within his media business will

depend on who, in fact, takes over who will fill the void politically and who will take over and how will the business work >> claudia, stay with us we have lorenzo with us. good morning, professor. >> good morning. >> berlusconi is a heavyweight within the party is there will a party without mr. berlusconi one name that comes up is his longstanding friend, but does he have the weight mr. berlusconi had? >> this is the redo of the italian politics for my perspective is forza italia will stand.

particularly after the election, there will be a force of fors f -- forza italian in a different direction. there are different factions fighting to carry on berlusconi's legacy. this narrative is for giorgia meloni because she can strengthen her ties and then on the other side, there is a risk because there are different factions might impact the co could the cohesion of the party. >> is there a possibility that one of the family members might

be pushed to take on the role? we heard the natural heir, but doesn't have that pull could one of his children be pushed into that position? >> well our, marina berlusconi s showing interest in politics that seems impossible. we have to be reminded that berlusconi's family is guaranteeing a financial level for forza italia there may be something based on this element to maintain unity in the party considering the faction approach of the italian politics, it could be difficult in the long run to maintain unity for forza italia this does not imply the government will fall for this

reason there are not any opportunities now for forza italia now and peace with the opposition. the opposition is divided and weak the centrists are divided and too weak. >> lorenzo, let me pivot many are saying berlusconi paved the way for other controversial leaders like donald trump and boris johnson and the wave of populism in many governments what do you make of the comparisons with berlusconi and trump? >> there are similarities in biographies and approach to communication. what we have to be reminded is a significant difference between the two men. the first one is that berlusconi was a product of globalization

and the liberal season of the 1990s. berlusconi never contested the global lies or liberal approach except in the sovereign debt crisis in 2010 and 2011. trump is a full runner of the globalization process. in terms of biography and style they are similar with that anti-establishment approach. they are two different historical figures. >> interesting lorenzo, i want to go back to forza italia and berlusconi. he had a close relationship with russian president putin. i wonder with his departure, what does that mean for the coalition and meloni and get

forza italia on side with the pro-ukrainian stance >> that is where berlusconi was a great opportunity for meloni and her political life italy is not any more on the political side her pro-ukraine approach and pro-nato approach was more possible in the past with the ue,eu, we know meloni entering in with the epp and with a forza italia and meloni's party will become a stronger negotiator the weight of meloni is increasing in this process

the political weight we can expect it to become more structure with negotiation and in in order to have stronger weh after 2024. >> lorenzo, thank you so much for joining us on the show professor from the university. claudia, thank you for joining us on set. >> happy to be here. >> safe travels back. elsewhere in banking news, ubs completed the takeover of credit suisse creating a swiss banking giant to oversee $5 trillion the banks employ 120,000 people worldwide, but around 10% of credit suisse staff left before the deal was closed. in an interview with cnbc,

ermoter ermotti was not concerned. he expects credit suisse will embrace the way ubs operating. >> we don't fall back into bad habits we have a clear view on how to manage the inn fategrintegratio. that is not meant to be discriminatory or any other things than what it is we are just introducing our operating model. coming up, we speak to gareth davies over the hot wage shorts with the gilts after the controversy mini budget issues. and former president trump heads back to florida to face

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. >> european equities open higher as investors gear up for a big week with traders betting the fed will hold, but brian moynahan issues a warning for the fmoc. >> most people think they will they can't say i'm done because they don't know. they need the next set of data the two-year gilt hits a ten-month high as wages grow outside the pandemic to the fastest pace we'll speak to the former secretary gareth davies. and the pboc cuts the key rates for the first time in ten months after sliding on the back of the concerns of the chinese economy. and apple shares close at a

record high for the first time in 18 months above $183 after unveiling the vision pro headset last week. the first new product line since 2014 it is broadly risk on for markets at the moment. we had a strong session for u.s. markets yesterday. a lot of focus on the tech stocks apple making an all-time high. that a.i. frenzy going into tech stocks is not abating. s&p is sitting at a level it has not seen in the last year. h hand over from asia with the pboc with the 10 basis point cut. that is a positive signal. in europe, you can see all of the indices are trading broadly in the green as well the ftse mib up .20%

dax in germany up .40% we have infineon doing well. cac 40 in france up .50% a bounce in the cyclical names luxury and autos doing well. the ftse 100 is still shy of 7,600. we are ten points higher 15 basis points or so. we are seeing a bounce in basic resources. glencore with a good session today. this is not a surprise with the moves from china with the pboc rate cut switching to foreign exchange. you can see the dollar trading on the back foot against the euro .40% higher. 108. dollar/yen still below 140. that is a difficult level to breakthrough

the pound is .40% higher we had strong employment data come in this morning it is raising the probability of the hike next week from the bank of england some believe up to 50 basis points let's switch to fixed income and show you gilts no surprise here gilts are coming off 10-year gilt ten basis points higher for the session 4.38 2-year gilt at 4.6 this is taking it back to a level not seen in ten months worth pointing out that the front curve is now pricing in a 35% chance of a 50 basis point hike next week that is up from 17% on monday. this employment data is in focus today in the uk. extensive market reaction to the employment data. now let's talk about what is happening in the uk.

a jeremy hunt says they must stick to the levels after the economy growing the fastest pace outside the pandemic and joumanna said, that is higher than expected and upward revised figure uk employment reversed the rises falling to 3.8%. >> happy to say that gareth davies is joining us at the desk. >> thank you for having me >> let's start with the employment data this morning i guess it is welcome in many companies. the unemployment rate has gone lower. that is a good sign. we still have sticky wag inflation at 7.2% if you exclude bonuses. the perception from the analyst community and many have come on the show state one of the reasons why the wage data is strong is persistent labor

shortage how is the treasury trying on correct that >> great to be with you. you are right. the data shows unemployment and employment is internationally competitive in the united kingdom. we are pleased with the results. it is important to point out that the uk has a tight labor market we have high vacancies. vacancies have come down slightly, but it is important we put in place measures to ensure we get more people back into the work force and budget which the chancellor announced in march significant reforms to the child care provision we announced another $3.5 billion on the back of the budget to help with health conditions get back to work as well just this weekend, we announced another $2 billion as part of that to tackle health conditions which is a long standing issue

>> that is tackling women and those left out of work with health conditions. what about immigration is it time to loosen >> we have one of the most c competitive in the world this week is tech week we have a number of visas for individuals and academics to cot into the uk. we have the right balance with innovation the main thing is ensuring everybody in the country already can work and participate whether it is parents or healthcare conditions or the disabled people >> you mentioned tech and the work that the sunak administration is bringing tech talent into the country. is that where the gap is with the labor shortage is that targeting the right group of people? >> overall, we have a well

established tight labor market what we have done with immigration reform is bringing in those individuals to contribute to the economy and fill the gaps we have in terms of the work force. one of the key focuses of this government is growing our economy and focusing on the five industries and making sure we have the public investment and visa system that is competitive enough to ensure we have the right people >> let me step back and ask about the uk economy it has been more resilient than expected in economics and analysts expected. interest rates are 4.5% and poised to right further especially on the back of the wage data this morning is it only a matter of time before the scales tip and we enter recession? is that inevitable >> the imf last month upgraded our growth prospects

by the way, imf outlined 90% of global economies will face difficulties on growth this year this comes on the back of the fastest growth in the g7 for the uk last year we are very optimistic, but not complacent by any means. we need to ensure fiscal policy is aligned and we work cooperatively with the bank of england as we look toward the end of the year. >> thetreasury have a stated objective of having inflation by the end of the year. are you confident we will get there with the wage data coming in this strong >> you are right the prime minister has recognized that. the imf is taking action to do that i'm confident we can achieve that. >> let me turn to internal party development over the weekend former prime minister boris

johnson publicly left his seat over the weekend launched a broadside against the prime minister i just wonder how big of a r rift is there in the conservative party >> i think it is important to recognize boris johnson as prime minister oversaw a pandemic. fastest rollout of vaccine in ukraine, he was one of the first leaders to provide support for ukraine. it allowed us to move on with brexit boushl boris johnson will be an important part of the party. it has related to the recent exec discussions with the processes and i'm confident we will move forward together >> some of the rhetoric has been strong out of both sunak and

boris johnson in the last 24 hours. it seems battle lines are drawn. there is a lot of talk about the elections being destabilizing for the sunak administration if we do see an unfavorable result for the conservatives in the elections, what, as a government can you do to lead up to the next general election >> we are looking to each election and we fully intend to see that happen. i'm confident we are focusing on the people's priorities. the primare minister's prioriti. that is what people want us to do cut inflation and growing the economy and reducing the debt. when we achieve those, the british public will recognize that >> thank you so much for taking the questions.

i appreciate you coming into the studio this morning. gareth davies. now in politics across the pond, former president trump has headed to florida to face 37 counts against him he is charged with mishandling over 100 documents at his mar-a-lago resort. jay gray has the latest. >> reporter: police have been in miami for days >> now and forever i defend him >> reporter: the crowd and security expected to intensify outside the federal courthouse where former president trump is expected to surrender to prosecutors. >> the fbi, miami police, u.s. marshals >> reporter: he will likely enter the courthouse through the underground tunnel with the fbi. once inside the courtroom, the

former president will enter a plea on 37 counts. including okay insbstruction of justice, conspiracy and false statements >> we have one set of laws in the country. they apply to everyone violations of those laws put our country at risk. >> reporter: images released by the department of justice show boxes of classified documents scattered throughout the mar-a-lago resort. the former president says he has done nothing wrong labelling the indictment the boxes hoax >> the ridiculous indictment of me by the biden administration's we weaponized department of injustice. >> reporter: they don't expect him to take any plea deal in the case the special counsel will request a speedy trial jay gray, nbc news, miami.

also coming up on "street signs," u.s. futures tick higher after the s&p closes at the highest level since april last year we'll discuss more after the break. my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shipstation the #1 choice of online sellers go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free i'm andrea, founder of a boutique handbag brand - andi - and this is why i switched to shopify. it's the challenges that we don't expect, like a site going down

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welcome back to the show my favorite segment. man united shares are surging as qatar media shows the preferred bidder to buy the club a media organization owned by the qatari's father said the news will be made soon five bids for the club below the 6 billion pound valuation is competing with jim ratcliffe you see the shares are up 24% in pre-market trading a state backed chinese media account is trying to create the

illusion it is competing with china. this comes after the visit by u.s. secretary of state blinken. this as the arab conference is coming to a close in riyadh. dan murphy sat down with an exclusive interview and spoke to the saudi investment minister about it >> china certainly is a prominent one. we have a fantastic relationship with the u.s it has been part of our global relationships since the creation of the modern saudi arabia that is well known i believe it is very strong as evidence of the visit from president biden last year an the fact that secretary blinken

was here last week reinforces that strong relationship a few months ago in september, we had the largest delegation in saudi arabia, public and private, in washington and the select investment summit at the same time, i was in los angeles with the equally large delegation, public and private, at the milken conference the u.s. remains to be the largest foreign investor in saudi arabia whether it is direct investors or equity funds or global banks which are very much part of our economy and our landscape. i don't see our relationship with the u.s. and china as mutually exclusive i think they complement each other. i hope saudi arabia can be a

factor of aligning the private sector in china and aligning in the u.s. we see a lot of direct investment from the u.s. going to china oracle shares are higher in pre-market after the company beat on earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter posting 17% revenue growth on the year and guidance which topped expectations. the rise driven by growth in the revenue rise by 50% in the quarter. the ceo told investors that margin in the unit will continue to grow. it's not the only big mover. amd shares are higher in pre-market with reuters reporting the company set to launch a new a.i. super chip later today. the company announced it will host an a.i. technology premier event. >> all about the a.i. these days let's get a check on one stock in particular that we have been talking about the last 24

hours. the past week. apple. today is opening a little lower. yesterday, it closed at an all-time high for the first time in 18 months this comes after the tech giant revealed a new mixed reality headset last week. vision pro coming in at a cost of $3,500. investors seem to have taken the reception well. consumers are growing optimistic that inflation is moderating according to the fed survey one-year inflation expectations edged lower to 4.1% and median inflation rose slightly with the three-year increasing to 3%. let's look at the main event today. the survey comes ahead of the cpi reading. expected to cool in may fuelling

the expectations the fed will pause rate hikes at the meeting this week. a big event, joumanna, the cpi print, the last data release before the fed decision. i wonder if it will make a difference in the fed decision tomorrow or have they already decided? >> skip, hop or pause is what we are looking at at this point will they skip or say they are done or go for the hike? not many people expect a hike. a 20% chance they go for 25 basis point hike i wonder to what extent the data is relevant. how high or hot does the inflation number need to come in for them to change the view and change the guidance that they have been giving over the last month or so at this upcoming

meeti mee meeting? >> in terms of the daetails, i think the economists are focusing on the cpi print with the used car prices. they jumped 4.4% in april. they are expected to be high again. we'll see. >> i think jokes apart, i think what the analysts are saying on that one is unlikely to see a jump of that size again with that number. if you strip out spending on healthcare and spending on houses, two key items, the rest of the services spending within the u.s. has been flat for most of the year. this comes back to what we were saying at the beginning of the show and that there are red flags creeping up. these numbers have been hot, but they are moving in the right direction. if you strip out the other

indicators, it does tell you spending has started to cool and consumers have been dipping into sav savings. >> and lieaning more into credi and at a time where interest rates are where they are that is a potential recipe for disaster if you see an accumulation of household debt i wonder going back to the rhetoric of hop, skip or pause i wonder if the fed is concerned if they signal this is a pause rather than a skip that equity markets and markets in general go risk on and that fuels inflation further and counter productive. >> it is not without precedent you look at what other central banks. the rba surprising with the rate hikes. i don't think it should come as that much of a surprise if it the fed pauses and continues the

hiking sicycle should the data come in strong i don't think this data will be the one that determines the decision tomorrow. we have to see more for them to come out with the view that the economy is in need of further hikes. before we head out, let's look at the markets. we spoke about the pboc cutting interest rates 10 basis points yesterday. this is having a knock-on effect on the asian markets and european markets trade in the green. and all three of the u.s. majors are opening in positive territory as well. that is it for the show. i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worlddexcng iupexwi ehae"s nt.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters of here is the "five@5. the s&p did something for the first time since april thanks to apple. and investor attention turning to the fed as the central bank kicks off the policy meeting today and some could say the first rate pause in 15 months. ahead of that, latest inflation report out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. it could be one that is too hot for the central bank. tech under press