ition of dateline. i'm craig melvin, thank you for watching. good morning and welcome to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche. >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines skip, pause, our hike. the fed prepares to hand out its policy decision as the latest inflation read shows prices cooling to their lowest level in nearly two years. short-term gilt yields hit a high and inflation data comes in

stronger than expected the bank of england governor says it's more solid than previously forecast. >> we'll have to use a policy to bring it back. then the question, of course, is how much we've got some ideas what the underlying -- i mean we still think inflation is going to come down, but it ee taking quite longer than expected. the iea predicts world oil demand will grow by a new record this year, but also slow demand will slow the market rate as the energy transition gathers pace we'll speak with the market's division head toriibosoni next. and we'll speak with our colleagues at 1400 cet.

a very warm welcome to "street signs. we made it to fed decision day before we get on to what to expect from central bank this afternoon, let's recap what we learned yesterday on the inflation front. consumer inflation eases, rising 4% compared to a year earlier. that was a significant step down from the 4.9% jump in april. core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.4% last month. that was in line with april's increase breaking it down by category, energy costs fell by the most from the previous month while food and shelter prices remain sticky here's a picture of the breakdown in terms of f the year-over-year change of

inflation. that epi reading comes ahead of the policy read later today. 91% of market participants expect the central bank to pause today and 63% expect the pause to continue into july. so that's where expectations stand, according to the cnbc survey. let's see how markets are shaping up i'm treading water not a huge amount of movement at the moment investors in wait-and-see mode ahead of today's decision. the nasdaq looking to open marginally higher than dow jones, which is pulling back ever so slightly after the open. the stoxx 600 is moving higher by about 0.3%, and fairly broad-based gains. yesterday the sector gained 0.5% breaking it down by region, here's a picture from a market perspective, the different forces in europe and how they're trading.

the cac 40 trading at 0.4% higher the peripheral markets of italy and spain, about 0.6% higher apiece a little bit of red on the board, but not a huge amount the market now crossing into positive territory on the day. xetra dax up 0.2%. here's a picture how things are looking in europe. at the bottom of the board, travel and leisure is pulling back 0 fountain 9% technology lagging, down about 0.13%. we did see continued gains in the technology sector stateside yesterday with the nasdaq climbing another 0.8%. it will be interesting to see how technology fairs today on the back of the fed decision, depending how they frame their decision, whether they issue a hawkish bias, if they do go ahead with a pause today on the upside, we're seeing a decent bid from the construct

sector, 0.6% autos up 1%. well, switching over to the oil space, the iea's latest monthly oil report says world oil demands will rise by 2.4 million barrels a day to a new record this year, however, in a separate longer-term report, the paris-based group said oil demands will lose momentum in the upcoming years amid a widespread shift to clean energy of course, it is important to draw the distinction here. they're releasing both their monthly report which flags the changes from month to month and this more bigger picture of long-term report which tells us a little bit more about the trends over the long term. so with that i'm really happy to bring in toril bosoni.

good morning, toril. it's no surprise the oil space has gone through a challenging couple of years because of the pandemic, because of the war in ukraine. many countries and policy makers have re-evaluated what energy securities mean to them. can i just ask you, given the focus on the transition and the move away from fossil fuels howl reliant now is the world globally, vis-a-vis today, vis-a-vis where we were before the pandemic and where we were before the russian war on hydrocarbons have we become more depen dents or less dependent? >> good morning. thank you for the question hydro carbon remains a big part of the global internal system, of course. it's crucial to the economy, to

transport, and many sectors of life but what we are seeing is the crisis, the global energy crisis that as we came out of the covid pandemic and with russia's invasion of ukraine has really accelerated and transitioned away from fossil fuels so while we still have a strong growth and demand for oil this year as we were seeing the last leg of the covid recovery, over the median term, we're seeing all the policy measures that the government has put in place t changes consumers are making for pricing and other reasons are making an impact we're seeing that the growth in oil demand has fallen sharply over the period. we expect oil demand to grow by 2.4 million barrels a day this year, and by 2028, that rate will go down to only 400,000 barrels a day. so there's a real transformation

coming with regard to electric vehicles, energy-efficient vehicles, not just on the road but all sectors that are throwing that. >> you talk about these numbers. i'm wondering whether the falling demand is happening at a quick enough pace to make sure we do meet those net zero target emissions by 2050. >> so as our report shows, even though oil demand growth is slowing, in our projections based on the current policies that are in place, we are seeing continued growth in oil demand every year through 2028. but as we state in the report, we can now see -- we're starting to see that peak in oil demand on the horizon, but beyond the forecast period that we're covering here. so clearly we're not on track to read net zero emissions by 2050. we're far from that. to reach those targets, we need to have additional policy

measures, additional behavioral changes to have a fatter decline in oil demand outlined in our report that's based on the current trajectory that's as we see it. >> torii, good morning it's julianna here i'd like to hone in on what you're seeing in china you note that china's rebound continues unabated with the oil demand reaching an all-time high in april it's interesting to see the strength that's coming through in this report i love the signals that you're seeing, that the recovery is not going as strong as many had expected what are the demand signals you're getting out of china right now? >> thank you for that. as we note in the report, we're seeing mixed signals on a part of the oil market today. of course, we also see the make macroeconomic news coming out of china, the weak market, the

production, manufacturing, and trade being undermined but what we're seeing in the old demand numbers as you note, the record-highs, it's the growth at the start of the year, and chinese oil demand is extraordinary. of course, last year, a lot of the economy was shut in due to covid restrictions so we're expecting out of the 2.4 million barrels a day, world oil demand growth that we're expecting this year. china accounts for 60% 1.6 billion barrels a day. a growth in china, a record-high. it's stability it's personal mobility on road transport. aviation is picking up in china very strongly. and we're seeing very strong growth in the petrochemical sector as well of course, china has built an amazing amount of petrochemical facilities over the past year. they're now using those, and that's what's driving the growth

at the moment. >> i've actually visited a number of facilities in my old life as a chemicals banker in china, and they have invested heavily in the petrochemical a number of european players have invested heavily in china i also saw in your report that you expect growth to grow slowly what's going to drive the slowdown given the needs and the demand that that's going to spur >> thank you in our outlook to 2028, it's really the petrochemical sector that's driving growth. we're seeing a demand for road transport fuels peak, 2026 oil and gas demand peaks as well within our time period, but it's the petrochemical sector that drives the growth. nafta and lpg account for more than half of the total oil

demand growth from '22 to '28, which is projected to grow by 5.9 million barrels a day. more than 3% is coming from the petrochemical sector for china, we're seeing a lot of growth in the first year and growth will slow as those plans ramp up. in china as we heard, the transportation sector, the significant increase in electric vehicles, in other energy efficiency measures are curbing the use for oil in other sectors, so we're seeing a lot of growth in the petrochemical sector in the early part of the forecast and continuing and moving forward, so it's really a -- the petrochemical sector is driving the demand growth in china and globally toward 2028. >> toril, we can't let you go without asking you the supply

side of the equation i thought it was notable in your monthly report you say non-opec-plus are leading the world supply growth this year and next year. opec plus in a different situation. but it's actually forecast to reach a record high of 101.3 million barrel as day. despite all that we talk about, about the transition away, green transition, reliance less on hydrocarbons, it feels as though supply isn't really slowing down what does that look like over the median term? >> thank you over the median term, we're also seeing a lot of capacity building in the opec plus countries. the united states is the biggest driver of growth, but we also have significant gains from brazil, guyana, and other americas we also see the capacity building up in other countries like saudi arabia and united

emirates in particular that have stated investment plans to increase capacity toward 2028 or 2030 time frame. so what we're seeing is that initially the growth -- the majority of the growthwill com from the americas. this oil will find its way to refiners in sia. shifting trade flows further beyond what we've seen this year, but we're also seeing toward the end of the forecast as the growth -- the pace of growth slows in particular in the united states and other parts of the countries, they'll come back and be able to increase their market share to meet the demand for oil. >> toril, thank you so much for joining us always a pleasure to meet with you. well, sticking with the energy sector, shell has announced it will increase its dividend by 15% starting this quarter and launch buybacks worth at least $5 billion in the

second half. the energy giant also said it would cut capital spending between 22 and $25 billion annually for both 2024 and 2025. shell confirmed it will expand its natural gas businesses to maintain dominance in the market the group did reiterate plans, though, to become net zero by 2050. on a quick programming note, our u.s. colleagues will be speaking with shell ceo wael swan at 1400 cet. the country must stick to its plan after inflation showed a gain of 0.2% in april. that's a solid recovery from the march contraction. now it's 0.3% higher than the february 2020 pre-pandemic level. just 0.3% though and the bang of england governor andrew bailey says inflation is coming down more slowly than the central bank 45- to 60-minute expected, saying the high food

prices and tight labor market are driving price pressures. he told the economic affairs committee that falling labor supply is a key obstacle to meeting the key inflation target. >> we've got a very tight labor market in the country. we've had a full-on supply of labor, which is showing signs of recovering, but fairly slowly, frankly. >> one of the things that firms pretty universally have been saying to me and have been saying to me for a while is they find so hard to recruit labor in the current market, they're not going to release labor there's labor hoarding going on. they'll adjust hours if they need to, but they will be very reluctant to from the uk economy to the german economy, the german minister is speaking this morning saying burdens from energy prices weakens and less favorable financing are still

having an impact in delaying the expected economic recovery economic data points to moderate recovery over the further course of the year. economic recession in the sense of more sustained downturn is not currently expected so seeing a moderate economic recovery this year, not a recession, according to the ministry's latest monthly report now, germany did enter a technical recession in the first quarter of 2023, which is, of course, defined as an economic first. a delay in the recovery is the message that roger is attempting to send. it's 107-88. now, moving to china, the pboc is expecting to cut its medium-term rate tomorrow. it announced a cut to the short-term policy rate yesterday with an easing as the economic

country's recovery slows. we'll have the latest live from old trafford after the break.

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welcome back to "street signs" former u.s. president donald trump has pleaded not guilty to federal charges he illegally stored classified documents at his mar-a-lago resort. setting the scene for a trial coinciding with his campaign to retake the presidency next year. following the arraign management hearing in miami, trump took his defense directly to his supporters at an event in new jersey where he said he'd appoint a special prosecutor to go after joe biden if elected president. nbc's alice barr has this report on the federal indictment. >> reporter: back on friendly ground after his day in federal court, former president trump defiant. >> today we handled the most evil power in the history of miami. >> reporter: earlier today he

pleaded not guilty to 37 counts, accused of storing classified documents, showed them to people twice and concealed them from investigators. the former president shifting to president biden's classified documents. >> anywhere have the two been more publicly revealed. >> politically it's seen as a double standard. >> reporter: though legal analyst suggest that unlike mr. biden, mr. trump is refusing to get the documents back some republicans are now voicing concerns from capitol hill. >> what president trump did was wrong. i mean, it's clear as day. >> reporter: to the campaign trail. >> there are people in my own party blaming doj. how about blame him? he did it. >> reporter: the first federal indictment of a former u.s. president and 2024 gop

front-runner now sending shock waves through the race for the white house. the trump event also tonight was a fund-raiser and the campaign sent out fund raising blasts as he was heading in and out of the court room trying to turn the former president's legal peril to his political advantage in washington, alice barr, nbc news. from one split cal strong man to another, italy will host a national day of mourning as lawmakers and dignitaries pay their respects at a state funeral for berlusconi we're joined from milan after being with us in studio yesterday. claudia, we were talking about the legacy of mr. berlusconi it's expected thousands will show up for the funeral today. what is the mood like there? >> reporter: yes, absolutely, joumanna there is a lot of tension

already mounting here. crowds are gathering it is expected that up to 20,000 people could want to participate, but today where i'm standing in front of the cathedral, only 10,000 people will be allowed to stay here on the ground they've already put up barriers this morning there are two mega screens from which the people that are outside can actually watch the funeral. lawmakers and dignitaries, many people that appeared in berlusconi's life. there is a political fear, one that is uniting and dividing italy. there's the business part, the finance part, the entrepreneurial part, as well as the sports part. as you know he did own ac milan, which is one of the two main football teams here in milan

there will be tns days and political days to follow to try to understand where the 8% of the coalition that adheres to football italia. will they be able to proceed the way they have. while he has been ill in the last months, he's really been the heart of all of this this afternoon at 3:00 we will have this funeral. it's a national day of mourning that's dividing and uniting italy. back to you for now. >> claudia, thank you so much for the report. now, manchester united shares surged. shares rose almost 30% before tearing back gains after an ed toll yar said it was based on online speculation arabile, in manchester, a lot of volatility with the stock, but for the end users, the

shareholders for manchester united, does it matter whether it's qatari or jim ratcliffe who's successful with the takeover >> reporter: it would be kind of interesting to know which side offers the best value for money, right? let's take a look at the two front-runners. sir jim ratcliffe, he has experience in managing, in helping, in chairing, i suppose, a football club and the development thereof. but niece's football hasn't grown much perhaps one might ask themselves how much more investment will be needed from him and what exactly he'll be able to bring to the table. of course, he is looking for 60% ownership with 40% to remain with the current owners, that being the glaciers the fans of manchester united not necessarily liking that

deal on the other side of the table you have sheikh jassim in what is reported to be a 35 billion pound deal perhaps increase the infrastructure of the 95,000-seater, perhaps even look toward rebuilding carrington, rebuilding the women's team in manchester united, as well as increasing development across the board. one might look at the qataries and see that perhaps sir jim ratcliffe offers a little more money. the group has certainly got its hands tied i. going to be be the biggest sporting deal in history when it does go through. a lot hinging on that price tag. >> arabile, a great breakdown of what those two offers entail

thank you for bringing us the latest. coming up on "street signs," and threaten were six. ai helps propel nvidia into the stratosphere tech, ai, all topics karen's been covering live from viva tech from paris. >> reporter: in the man versus machine debate and as automation gains momentum, this could be the future at big events and conferences like this. we're going to continue the conversation after the break with jonas prising, the manpower ceo. stay tuned

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shipstation the number 1 choice of online sellers and wolfgang puck go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche, and these are your headlines skip, pause, or hike, the fed prepares to hand down its policy rate decision as the latest inflation reading shows prices cooing to their lowest level in two years. meanwhile the short-term guilt yield lower after a

15-year high and employment data comes in stronger than expected. andrew bailey announces inflation is more stubborn than initially forecast. >> we'll have to use monetary policy to bring it back, but the question is how much we've got some ideas we still think inflation's going to come down, but it's taking a lot longer than we expected. the iea predicts world oil demands will grow by a new record this year, but the head of the group's oil and market prediction, toril bosoni, tells this show we still have a ways to go. >> clearly we're not on track for lowering emissions by 2020 we're far from it. to reach those targets, we need to have additional policy makers, additional policy changes to have a faster decline in oil demand. shell announce as 15% dividend bump and pledges to reduce capital spending in a bid to regain investor confidence.

the energy sector will speak with wael sawan at 1400 cet. welcome back to the show google and others will talk about ai in a recent filing with the u.s. intelligence and communications, that's compared to openai's calls for a new gofrmging agency which would govern the technology in a similar way as energy facial recognition is a key sticking point for policy makers they're due to begin with a european commission and energy estimate on the final text of the bill. nvidia rose after finishing the session at over $410 putting

the market cap north of, that's right, $1 trillion for the first time. >> they made it to the club. >> welcome nvidia. the most advanced intelligent chip will start shipping this year if developers adopt the hardware, the technology could be the firm's ticket into an as yet largely untapped market. amd ceo lisa su told cnbc she sees huge growth potential for ai technology. >> ai is how we proceed with all our market and business applications yes, today we believe it's about a $30 billionish market. we think it's going to grow. we see $350 billion by the time we get to 2027 for this incredible technology. >> karen and arjun both spoke to

thomas earlier this morning and asked if he sees any ore valuations in the industry take a listen. >> the companies developing the technology, they're really valuable they'll handle more code in the amount of time they have created. it's limbed. you have go through emails and upgrade the machines they have an hour or two left in the morning after a first cup of coffee they're actually productive. we want to use that time to the biggest impact, and ai enables companies to do that we're excited about the productivity gains we can see from there we think it's going to be 10 x to what we've seen today. >> let's get out to karen at

vivatech you've covered these conferences for so many years. have you ever seen this amount of focus on artificial intelligence >> reporter: technically not, joumanna ai has not been like the momentum to late thanks to big stocks they've all taken off because of this journey i want to bring in a guest who's been on the ground of vivatech, the manpour ceo. we talked about the flight program for nasa her point at the time is we need a greater skill set out there. we can't have all these very high-level scientists. we need to have humans because we need to communicate now in 2023 we have a challenge but not in the space station talking about the technology taking over. so what is the role of the humans your view is we augment the ai,

that we don't get replaced by the technology just tell us why. >> that's right, karen i think we get very excited every time there's news on technology and now chatgpt much more accessible. if we look back at the data, we hope we can get an amazing boost from the technology because we've not gotten any major tech knoll igy boosts over the last 30 years if you look at our productivity on the whole, it's not been majorly impacted, and we're hopeful that chatgpt is going to have augment human capability, but in every case it starts to create more jobs, hopefully it grows more productivity, and it doesn't replace more jobs than it creates. >> we've been watching wages are still high at the same time it's come off as quite fitting there's pushback around remote working still.

the labor market remains tight it feels as though the c-suite is leaning very quickly into the ai story and productivity gains do you think at this point it would help the labor market? >> i think it would be very good if we could see significant productivity improvement i think based on what we've seen so far, it has the promise of actually being able to make a step change in a bigger way because it's more accessible for users and easier to adopt for the eyusers than they have been doing over the last 30 years we're hopeful and it would be a very good thing because as you say, karen, productivity is coming off and it's low and at a level that's not sustainable that's something we need to address. in tight labor marketsings that's very difficult in a tight technology. >> with remote working, there's been an absolute pushback from

some qucorners of the work forc to enable remote working they want to start back. as we talk about general active ai and more and more technology in the mix, where does it live hybrid does it facilitate allow it to be a feature, or remove that because you need more human content >> it i going to be difficult to predict, but i think what you're pointing at, though, is the advent of remote working, we thought, was primarily pandemic related, and we're coming off many of the pandemic anomalies now in labor market, supply chain, all kinds of areas where things are normalizing, but remote work remains very high on the list of workers and talent in terms of what they would like to see when they engage with an employer, and we also see other workers haven't benefitted from the remote working, one thing to have control over their lives to

a much grata greater degree. is this the new normal all the employers clearly want their teams back to get better production, cooperation, creativity, getting organization to be a team sport with all of those reasons, whether they will win out and reverse the trend that has been firmlile embedded in the last two years, at this point it doesn't look like it's going to change as we look at the landscape, what jobs are going to be replaced >> we've clearly seen technology and automation has driven huge productivity agriculture, the same. what we've not seen is the sector to the same

the question will be will c chatgpt and other ai technologies have th productivity that's where we've been lacking. employers don't know whether people are fully productive or not, and that's why we're hoping to see a boost then it could give employers and employees new ways of engaging, yes, i'm working remotely, but i'm more productive working remotely than i am spending two hours in a commute that could be a game-changer in terms of of the way we work. >> i wanted to ask you about fed day. one of the issues has been the very tight labor market. the fed wants normalization. how long is it going to take is it a 2023 story even? are we going to see a tightness after the labor market because

of the interest rate hikes or is it 2024? >> our industry is really at the edges of the labor market, and we can clearly see the cooling effect of the fed actions as well as the actions of other central bachgers across the worlder. so we're seeing a level of activity that in past times would have when been consistent with a garden variety recession, but the big question is with the strength of the labor markets being so high today s that enough to absorb it and just get a gradual cooldown that might indicate a soft landing as opposed to a recession and our belief is based on what we're seeing how slowly inflation is coming down, central bankers will have to continue to raise interest rates because it's not hitting into the broader labor market yet, and wage inflation's coming down, but it's coming down way gradually, and it will require some further cooling off, we believe, before central bankers

feel comfortable that this is taking a full effect. >> so up close with the labor market, you can see things moving we'll talk shortly as we tap into the big grain computer. we're talking about ai and its capabilities, but they've got quantum computing. we'll talk about how ai and quantum computing means together and what that means. back to you. >> thank you. now, here's an interesting story, paul mccartney says ai has enabled the beatles to release one final song that's right decades after the deaths of half of the band. peter jackson had used ai to extricate john lennon's voice from a, quote, ropey piece of

cassette and we'll feature that. for more on that story, get back to cnbc.com. nice one by the producers. coming up on the show, all eyes on the fed as the central bank considers a pause on its hiking path. we'll talk about what could happen next. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) -awww. -awww. -awww. -nope. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall. hi. i'm shannon storms bador. when we started selling my health products online our shipping process was painfully slow.

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welcome back to the show, everybody. well, we did get that major data event out of the u.s. yesterday, all eyes were on inflation and it came pretty much in lines with expectations, head line tracking its 4%. which means going into today, there's a big central bank meeting, the fed rate decision markets are honing in on the view the feds might skip the hike for this meeting before proceeding along with further hikes at the next meeting. what that has meant is a lot of risks on appetite. we saw in the u.s. markets yesterday the close for wall street was pretty positive hanover in asia pretty positive as well.

here all the majors are trading quite positively today the ftse is leading the charge xetra dax up then the uk, a lot of focus on the ftse 100 it's up 0.7% through 7600. that's a key psychological level we've been watching. there's been a lot to digest on the data front had better than expected gdp front. we had better than expected employment numbers leading to a repricing on the front of the yield curve which is having an impact on many sectors in terms of the u.s. futures, i did mention the sector was pretty positive. we've got the s&p and nasdaq opening up in positive territory and the dow opening slightly weaker to the tune of 20 points.

steve liesman has been digging into the market's expectations in the latest cnbc fed survey. >> surprising results from the cnbc fed survey showing our 33 respondents differing with the market and believing the fed scores is none and done. that is no rate hikes at this meeting and no more this year. 91% of the respondents see no rate hike at the june meeting. 63% say july won't see a hike with 34% forecasting a 25-basis point increase the fund reese rate is seen at peaking 5.24%. that's just above the current rate because some do see that july hike. the fed is on hold for a peak rate for nearly eight months more than 80% see no change in september and november. 71% forecast no change in december but a 26% minority are pencilling in a rate cut peter boockvar, chief investment

officer of the bleakley group says they will tighten rates one factor that might explain the difference between the survey respondents and the markets is concerns about bank lending. 53% said they would reduce their gdp forecast because of tighter credit standards coming from the bank 47% left their gdp forecast unchanged. but the average production was 0.3 percentage points of gdp that's a pretty low number considering how low they expect the numbers to go. still there are many who think the fed should keep writing. john ryding of brean capital says they should keep hiking he said if the fed needs to hike in july, why not hike now. the fed isn't sure and wants to

see more data on figuring out whether it's none and done or done and one steve liesman, cnbc business news. >> i like that none and done or none and one or one and done the fed is going to pause or skip for this meeting and apparently reassess. if you look at what the market is pricing in, there's only a 0% chance they gofor a 25-point basis hike, so pretty much no hike is expected then in july, there's a 70% chance of hike being priced in so that does tell you the market has centered on this narrative but the fed are very happy to sit back, skip this meeting, and then go for hikes again back in july but it is funny that, you know, this seems to be the consensus now. we moved a long way from a couple of months ago when markets thought they would come to the end of the hiking cycle, stop, and cut rates.

>> it's curious. the market is relatively convinced another hike is needed just not yet we're talking six weeks' difference here. it's a little bit hard to jeff phi if they're pretty certain if that's going to be needed or heavily signaling that way, but don't do anything this month a curious situation. >> yeah. i mean it's going to be highly dependent on the data, and it will be very interesting to see how strong the data will have to be in order for them to actually restart it. >> to go ahead and pull the trigger again. let's see what philippe ferreira has to say thank you for joining us this mor morning. the market's set up for a pause, more than 90% probability we won't see a hike today what signal will they give that we're likely to see a rate hike come july? >> i think the fed has to look at the risk of policy error. the original banking prices

streamed was already a wakeup call, and clearly inflation is headed in the right direction. we think it's a good chance the fed keeps the rates the same on the back of another that would be heading in the right direction toward the fed's 2% target but we think that the fed has to be aware and will be aware about the risk as well, maximum employment is part of their mandates. >> you know, i wonder if -- how the fed -- just picking up the conversation joumanna and i were having, how the fed can justify signaling more tightening ahead without going ahead and tightening today >> they have to deliver a policy they have guided market expectations in that direction

they haven't committed themselves toward what comes next they are highly rate-dependent they'll have another chance before the meeting provided we continue to head in the right direction, keep in mind the headline cpi has lost one percentage point per month over the past two months so this inflation trend is well engaged. although on the core epi, that is three key hikes let's keep in mind powell is highly experienced in guiding market expectations. actually powell is kind of -- i mean the market is used to power. the market understands his -- i mean thinking, and powell in the end is quite balanced.

so they are entering as well an election year, '24, so they have to be cautious about not going too far. >> let me ask you, if you look at the soft market performance, the s&p back to levels not seen in the past year, there isn't the sense from the markets at least that the fed have entered into overtightening territory. at what point does the market start pricing that, if at all? >> well, the market has been quite optimistic on the equity side we have very conflicting signals from existing markets. the liquidity market is looking at the positive thing, but, you know, the equity market is optimistic it's looking at the bright side of things. at the end of the day, the equity market is for sure year to date quite up

double digits return but if you take the one-year perfect, for instance, the energy market is nowhere back to where it was last august for sure it makes a difference but there is an upside in terms of inflation, but also an upside in earnings expectations if unemployment stays low. >> i'm going to have to jump in. unfortunately we're running up against a hard clock thanks for joining us on "street signs. philippe ferreira. deputy head of economics and cross-asset strategy from kepler cheuvreux. most are trading in the green. >> that's it for street signs. thank you for watching i'm julianna tatelbaum. i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. have everything you need to setup your online store, to connect with customers, and to bring your dream business to life. because when we work together, the future is

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billionaire, we're all going to go to artificial intelligence. >> we need to be vigilant, but the real dystopian place is if we put road blocks in front of the good guys building good ai. >> while the fluid ai business models, the ones in the background are the suppliers to ai companies are going to continue to win. it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters, and here's your "five@5." first, prepping for a pause. inflation continues to trend downward at the risk of recession, it's not off the table yet. ahead, stocks are trying to do something to add to the already impressive gains with the nasdaq and season sitting at their highest level since april of 2022. and the ai chip race, it's heating up what rival amd just unveiled and who its first big buyinger could be. plus tracking tesla's record run as we have