down about 3% today. how does that play out tomorrow, given that the broader indices kind of shrugged off what the fed had to say >> yeah, that's right. and we get an ecb decision, more earnings happy birthday to zeb august from our team. that's going to do it for us here for "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," the fed pauses, but adds, don't get used to it. chair powell saying more rate hikes are waiting of the wings if inflation doesn't keep dropping markets taking the news in stride, so, in jay powell we trust or are the markets just not buying what the fed is selling? plus, health care headache the cfo of united health sails seniors are getting all sorts of surgeries they delayed because of covid how much pain ahead? and later a charm offensive in china beijing bringing business leaders in to get theired a vase on how to give the economy a jolt at the same time, president xi set to meet with bill gates this weekend. could these moves put investing in china back on the map

i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money. on the desk, tim seymour, steve gr grasso, dan nathan, guy adami. first, the pause heard around the world. laying the groundwork for rates to climb even higher than expected later this year the news sent shockwaves through the markets with the dow dropping as much as 428 points at its low before pairing back those losses the s&p and nasdaq finished the day in the green meantime, rates rocketed higher with the yield on the two-year touching 4.8% for the first time since early march. more on the fed decision and chairman jerome powell's press conference, let's bring in steve liesman, who was there some further rate hikes, that was the language, which i thought was interesting. >> yeah, that was a little bit stronger than the last are time. what i think you might call this is an expected and welcome pause, melissa, with an unexpected and unwelcome forecast that it could hike twice more this year so, now for investors, i think it comes down to this -- do you

believe the fed forecast or don't you? that is, are you feeling lucky, go ahead, trade against the fed. fed chair jay powell made clear that they are serious about bringing down inflation. >> the committee is completely unified in the need to getll doo get it down to 2%. over time. that is our plan and, you know, we understand that allowing inflation to get entrenched in the u.s. economy is the thing that we cannot allow to happen. >> here's the forecast making the news here. 2023, they raised it by half a point to 5.6% and 2024, also up a little bit more. unchanged at 2.5%. the big thing is the conviction. four members after one hike, nine members, or half the committee, supporting two hikes. three members supporting three or more hikes.

so, 66% of the the committee about two or more. despite that conviction, it's worth noting veteran bond investors say they don't believe the fed, they think inflation is going to fall sharply and the economy will slow and the fed won't hike the market, split decision enbracing the july hike with a 60% probability, but no contract is currently trading with the second hike built in melissa, i'm interested to see if your guys around the table there are buying or selling the fed here >> well, that's how we open the show either the markets are totally, you know, believing jay powell, because he also sort of opened the door to a soft landing, a scenario in which we don't have to see, you know, super slow growth or very high inflation. either they believe jay powell and trust him or they just simply don't believe him at all. my money right now is on the latter, opposed to the former. >> i think it's worth remarking here that the market came to the fed, melissa, right? the market had these cuts built in those cuts are out the fed was right about -- it was wrong about inflation to

start with, and it became more right when inflation stuck around and the idea of the fed needing to stay high that was right for awhile here, so, maybe we're in the rubber match of the fed versus the market here. and i think the end of the day, these numbers are going to come down, jeff is either going to be right and we are going to get some lower prints that will remain low and give the fed that convincing evidence they need, or they won't, and in that case, the fed is not going to hike, so, it doesn't really boil down to being right or wrong, it's whether or not your forecast for inflation is right or wrong, i think. >> where do you stand, tim >> well, if steve referenced dirty harry, i think he did when he started out, there's -- i think there's another -- something else in the chamber, let's just say that. didn't want to get too graphic on cable tv here i believe him. i believe the fed. but i also believe we don't know where we're going to be in two, three months i everyone's saying the market doesn't trust the fed, i think the market believes that the fed really can't go much past where they are and what's 25 basis

points amongst friends and i'm sure clint eastwood would have said it just like that >> remarkable. again, we played this game a lot. >> all the time. >> if you said, they're going to say they're going to pause but say maybe two rate hikes -- >> selloff >> s&p down 80 handles at one point, down 40 something handles? i don't know what happened late in the day to get back to unchanged. but two tens went out to 94 basis points like that now, what's fascinating, if you listen to michael schumacher yesterday, steve, i don't know if you heard this, he said from 1:59 -- >> 2:26. >> cha-cha-cha. >> it was exactly right! and the stock market, as well. exactly right. i believe what the fed is saying i believe their earnest in this, the market's clearly not buying it, though >> steve, are you going to -- i can ask steve a question, i can still see his box. >> he's still here >> steve, why are we talking about 2% i know 2% was untouchable when

there was no sign of inflation shouldn't it be 3% why is 2% the number, why shouldn't it be 3%, 4% >> i mean, it's a good question, but it's 2%, because it's the -- it's the level that they promised it's the goal, the target they had. and the fear is that if they change that rate, that it -- their credibility will just go to hell. they -- there could be a discussion about changing it, if they hit the 2% target and then say, you know what 2% is too tight, we want to go to 2.5% or 3%. i don't think they're going to change it until they get to that rate and there's a decent argument to be made for 2%, which is it's not 1% and it's not 3% 3% is a level that businesses start to talk more seriously about the impact of inflation on their businesses, but just one thing for tim on this issue of whether or not to believe the fed, right now, that probability is 60%, but you know, i would think you could take it meeting by meeting and one idea that's

out there is that forget this data dependence, forget everything else powell said today. all he really wanted to communicate is that they want to hike every other meeting like they did in 2019 and that's what they're about to do >> steve mentioned jeffrey's sponts immediately, and so, he doesn't think they're going to hike again, but he also -- actually takes issue with the indication of what the economy is doing and you heard that, and it's interesting, you know, we talked about it last night, you know, look at how small caps traded today. so, look at the russell 2,000. look at how energy traded today. look at how financials traded today. they didn't trade particularly well all three of those sectors, okay, are down considerably from their 2021 highs or their all-time highs made in the last, let's call it 18 months or something like that. it's kind of interesting, because guy said, i don't know what the heck happened at the end. you saw the move the nasdaq made nvidia rallied -- >> all-time highs on semiconductors let's be clear about where the market is. >> but again, it's the same

stuff, like, leading the charge, in a way >> safety trade. and he didn't take july off the table, which means it's going to be toucher for the small companies to survive >> but the more this happens, it's just -- the more danger that presents, you know? and we used to think, and steve said something like the market is coming the way of the fed or something like that, the market is really -- the stock market is working against the fed right now, because a bubble is inflating, and by raising rates, you are trying to avert that, you are trying to avert a housing bubble but there's no cares so, the nature of investors and the risk that they're willing to take, that should be concerning to people, and i think that's probably what concerns jeff a little bit. >> steve, do you think that irks the fed? >> i think it does i think there's a really interesting dynamic right now, which is that the market is coming to believe that this a.i. thing is for real. and it has dramatic implications for both company earnings and for the economy. the fed can't really factor that in unless at some point in time it starts to make a decision

that this is a real productivity enhancer and a reason to lay back in terms of rates, but it can't really do that and that's what i think is really motivating the market right here and i agree with what dan is saying, that at least if the initial phase of this, it is working against the fed. when i say the market has come to the fed, i mean the pricing in the funds market, not necessarily the stock market >> all right, steve, thank you so much, great to see you and get your analysis on a day like today. steve liesman, senior economics reporter the a.i. -- i sense some skepticism in steve's voice when he was talking about the a.i. bubble, but if you are a believer in the spending cycle, this spending cycle will defy what is happening in the economy. and maybe that's why we're seeing nvidia do well today, for instance >> well, i'm not ready to make a call on the spending cycle nvidia showed -- >> making a call on the spending cycle -- sorry to interrupt. making a call on the spending cycle is actually admitting that

a.i. whether have an impact in terms of productivity and so therefore has to be a factor in the fed's forecast >> that's fine on a day when semiconductors got to all-time highs, a rounding error, i don't believe you're going to have a tech cap-x spend that warrants the kind of move that we've seen in a lot of these semis. i think nvidia can go higher and the valuation there is som something, i think we all have to question what, you know, how we're valuing a company that's growing that fast, especially on peg ratios, which don't look expensive, but i don't think that tech is suddenly going to have to go, you know, bananas here in terms of cap-x spend i think data center is starting to get very crowded. margins are pressurized. i just think this is really a function, as much about the market itself positioning and sentiment which have changed no matter what he said today, there's only so much the fed is left to do and at some point, it's going to now, the fed funds have adjusted dramatically we now have 15 or 20 basis points of hikes between now and year end

that used to be 100 basis points of cuts three months ago i just think what the market is doing, and dan's right, financials and banks didn't act well today, and more fed, more aggressive fed means more runs on banks, because deposits get tastier and treasury bonds and because regional banks have more credit problems. >> cap-x was nonexistent everyone thought that earnings were going to collapse, didn't happen so, if anything, cap-x is going to be racheted up in the next couple of months, not taken down, because it was not in anyone's model whatsoever. >> there's an unchanged scenario, where it doesn't go up or -- >> i think they pulled back -- it doesn't, but i think companies pulled back aggressively because they were a product of overall market, thinking the overall market was going to dictate the recession and look at how many tech firms fired people, laid people off. >> here's the question if we have a bubble, let's say we have a bubble in a.i. you don't believe this whole thing. can you have a bobble ubble in

area of tech, which is lev state stating the entire markets, and be in this rate hike cycle -- >> something's got to give i agree. technology is real i'm not suggesting the technology is a bubble, but when nvidia moves $13 in a half hour at the end of the day, seemingly on the back of nothing, a trillion dollar valuation on maybe $40 billion of revenues of stuff, historically, that is unsustainable. now, even if they had twice the revenues of that, it's still an expensive stock on valuation, so, something's got to give here and i think the bubble is starting to be created in a lot of the enthusiasm for these names. >> all right, for more reaction, let's turn to the ceo of kbw tom, great to have you here. >> great to be with you. >> do you believe that the fed's going to end up going two more times? >> i think the economy's slowing. and when i look at what happened today, i believe more the statement, more about watch what they do rather than what they say, and i think the dolts are going to be the most -- least

reliable of everything that was communicated today, so, what i see is that the economy's slowing, so, i think we're near the end of this rate increase cycle. and frankly, if we get another 25 basis points or not, i think the outcome in the economy is going to be very similar >> so, it sounds like you don't believe what the fed is saying right now? >> i think trying to deliver a new message with these dots is not what i'm willing to hang my hat on from what i see happening in the economy i think that banks were already tightening in the fourth quarter of last year, it didn't just start in march loan growth had been slowing for the banking system, the first half of the year is an adjustment to the new interest rate environment in the second half of the year, we're going to be talking more about credit quality and the other thing is, whether it's technically a recession or not, i think it's going to feel the same way it's different sector by sector, so, if you are in the large corporate commercial real estate business right now, you feel

like you are in a recession already. residential mortgage origination has been in a recession. so, it's almost vertical by vertical >> the main reason for the fed holding off this meeting is to see what the effects of the prior rate hikes will be and how they play out. so, what -- how do you see the long and variable lag effects playing out? what do you see that the fed may or may not be missing? because it seems like you are seeing the impacts right now in a much deeper sense than what the fed has portrayed during the press conference >> yes, i -- i think there is a delayed impact, and i'll also say, 25 basis points at 5% is very different at 25 basis points off 50 basis points, for example, so, this is getting to be the real deal at the moment, because of the level of rates, and so, i think the bite of these higher rates is gaining traction almost every day. even if you look, you know, there's a lot of of talk about how home sales are down in america. part of the reason why i think that is, is because america loves their mortgage they don't want to get a new

mortgage i've never seen america love their mortgage like they do right now. because when you buy a new home, you have to think about financing it at current rates, and that's a good incentive to stay in your current home. so, these are having an impact slowly, and i think the latest data on inflation is showing disinflation is here, and at least in our area of expertise in financials, we see it in the fundamentals >> so, tom, if rates stay higher for longer and you talked about banks and you talked about people, essentially have to finance mortgages, how about banks that have to finance deposits if we had bank failures, rates staying higher and moving up a little higher this is the part that i can't reconcile talking about credit, you've been through these cycles before, this might be the most foreboding of all storm clouds, no >> so, i think there are two pieces to this conversation. one is, i think there are elements of, like, the global financial crisis that are in bank stocks right now and i think the rally that we've seen

since early may is a relief rally that that's not happening, right? the other part is, the earnings estimates haven't settled, they haven't stopped going down so, before the first quarter, we cult bank estimates. after the quarter, we cut them by 4%. my instincts are, we're going to cut them again that's why the stocks are trading at six and eight-times earnings my sense is when we get close to hitting that point, and if the fed stops raising rates, that's when we're going to find that out, i think that's going to be an important signal for investors. >> we not see the floor in bank stocks until the fed stops cutting or until we solve -- i know that you've been -- you testified on the hill about reforming deposit insurance, is that another key aspect to stabilizing the sector for good? >> i think there's more relief rally. i look at u.s. bank corp, which is one of the trophies of the banking industry, trades at six times earnings, 6% dividend

yield. we've trimmed estimates and still think they're going to earn 20 on tangible common equity next year that is an inexpensive stock that's a trophy that's on sale stock may not do much in the near term, but we think in the next couple years you'll be happy if you bought it, so, that's the relief rally. the overall industry rally, for all participants, probably doesn't happen until we get some more stability in what we think is earnings are going to be. >> tom, thank you for stopping by appreciate your time >> great to be with you. thank you. >> you like ubs for a long time. >> yeah, and it hasn't traded particularly well. tom is pretty thoughtful in this tim mentioned this a week or so ago, the banks are probably in -- in the absence of bad news, they'll continue to rally, get to a level that sort of makes sense. but the bad news is coming so, you have to game it out. you want to play that game of chicken and continue to buy these stocks, or at some point, the next shoe drops. that's been the move in the russell. the move in the russell is not predicated on the economy getting better the move in the russell to a large extent is predicated on

people playing catchup with regional banks >> i actually think the xlf, some of the stuff that tim was saying about rates higher for longer and everything that tom just said about the recessionary aspects of the businesses, i just think, again, they're always cheap, they're going to remain cheap, but not going to be a great back half of the year one of the things i did after, when i was digesting with the fed was saying, and again, there were though big surprises there, other than the fact that rate cuts are off the table for 2023 and further hikes are on the table here, i think you can sell the xlf and i don't think it's one of those ones you're going to get too hurt in there's no surprises for the large u.s. money center banks. >> the takeaway, we went from a trading range from 3800 to 4200, that was pretty much kryptonite at that wall, and now we're in a higher trading range, 4,000 to 4350ish, give or take, we're above it now, but i think to dan's point at the start of the show, people are still looking for safety in the large cap tech names. until that starts to deflate a

little bit, the market's going to hang right here and i think we should have a little bit of a reset in the overall market. >> you know, the timing for the fed in terms of two more rate hikes, which doesn't work well with the timing of jackson hole, which is a change of pace, if a pace change is needed, and that's actually what paul has said in the past to people, jackson hole, that's where the fed is going to start laying the groundwork for a rate cut. do you think that a rate cut or laying the groundwork for thinking about a cut is completely off the table >> yes i think -- i think the fed has latitude in each direction v verbally, but certainly what they did taoday -- we all expected this hawkish pause. i don't think -- especially when, you know, the quotes are risk of inflation are the upside, we still haven't seen the full effect of our tightening, i mean, these are at least dynamics that say, we're on the switch, we may be concerned about overdoing it another stat that just came out over the last couple days,

especially as student loans take hold, you think about the consumer credit, $60 to $80 billion needs to be paid back. and that's something that, you know, we talk about how great the consumer is, because they have a job, that's the part of this, no one's -- we're factoring in banks and corporate stuff -- you know, i can't look past that, either. >> real quickly, you know, on the rate cut, if they signal it, it's because the neutral rate that they speak to all the time, if inflax tion comes down, you should expect a rate cut and again, the stock market has not been bothered about 5% fed funds, because of where inflation is right now, and so, to me, that could actually be a bit of a misnomer, especially when you think about where valuations are right now, relative to expected growth. we still have gdp growth that's well below the prepandemic average of about 2.2% over the prior ten years, so, to me, a rate cut does not mean get back all-in, you have to really

factor -- we spend so much time -- >> the ultimate lagging end kay toir to your point. >> yeah. >> sort of right around the bend they are always too late to act, too late to stop acting -- >> which is why they should have raised 25 today and signaled that may night be done and jackson hole would have been the opportunity to really redefine what the inflation picture, maybe it gives them the opportunity to say, 2% was a prepandemic thing, the economy is just different from here on our. coming up, an earnings alert on lennar. the details from the quarter next. plus, a big swoosh for nike and a bulls eye for target one of our traders says not so fast why he doesn't believe the bounce that's straight ahead. "fast money" is back in two.thi . gogo-foodco. go check it out. whaatt?! overnight, users tripled. which meant hiring 20 new employees —

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on lennar moving higher. diana's got the details. >> reporter: hey, melissa. it was a strong beat lennar stock came close to a record high yesterday, as the builders have been benefits from the shortage of existing homes and the chairman said as much in the release. he said as consumers have come to accept a new normal range for

interest rates, demand has accelerated, leaving the market to reconcile the chronic supply shortage derived from over a decade of production deficits. now, lennar's average sales price per home delivered was 449,000 in q-2, down from 500,000 at the peak last year. but deliveries and new orders were up slightly and the company's home delivery forecast for q-3 and full year is above estimates. this was an interesting spring quarter, of course, for the market, as mortgage rates were a little nuts. the average on the 30-year fixed starting above 7%, fell back to close to 6% and then went back over 7% again. and we're going to talk about all of this with stuart miller tomorrow morning in the 10:00 a.m. on "squawk on the street. melissa? >> diana, are the home builders offering incentives to combat the rise in mortgage prices to make this a little bit more attractive for consumers >> you know, they definitely had been in fact, their big thing was doing mortgage rate buydowns last fall and into the winter, but interestingly, when we saw

the last builder sentiment report out, went sentiment went up, they said, we don't have to do quite as many, because there's so much demand out there, they're still seeing people coming in the door to buy. so, they were doing these incentives, still doing some, but not nearly as much as they had to last fall >> diana, thank you.g houses, no problem there, steve. >> and that's the important part they just asked the mortgage buydowns, so, that's the difference between existing home sales and new home sales that the actual builder can do something to help you out. as tom said, no one wants to give -- everyone wants to brag about, they bought the low in the mortgage so, everyone, remember those days you sit around and -- >> 2.7% -- >> i bought the low, i have an interest only, 3%, whatever it is, it doubled now you are getting the help from the builders, but i will tell you that kbh -- >> i would rather be bragging about my golf score. is that what you and your buddies do >> we start there and we go to

golf if you look at kbh, all of them are on fire. kbh probably hash -- i'm sorry, pullty probably has one of the better charts in this, and i see it up, i think this might be at an historic high, as well. so, i don't know how much longer this lasts, but people still have cash, people still have jobs, people are still going to buy homes. >> lennar's cheaper few, significantly -- i mean, look at the magnitude of the eps beat and the revenue beat it's remarkable what's going on. and the margins are improving, as well. there's a lot to still like here lennar's been a laggard. i think at $118 is an all-time high dhi is right around there, toll brothers right around there. these stocks are going to continue to grind higher, regardless of what's going on in the underlying interest rate war. >> i would listen to guy, because he's been talking about them for a long time one of the few classes i went to and enjoyed in college was microeconomics, right? so, what we don't understand, we do understand --

>> fall class. >> the difference between the macro and the microeconomics the microeconomics iho builders seconder to, first of all, some of the construction cycle dynamic cycles are normalizing. you have inventory, a lot of different dynamics in terms of, you know, where the existing inventory is old and in need of refurbishment and the home builders, especially people like dr horton are going to the first-time buyers that are the most in need some of this microeconomic doesn't really change, though the macro around rates and what not is probably not their friend >> all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. lace up for this next trade. we're running into nike's big jump but one of our traders is just not doing it why he's shorting the stock, next plus, health insurers ailing big-time today, as a surge of catchup sends the group to the e.r. should you expect a speed dill recovery or is there more pain ahead? you're watching "fast money,"

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the golf cart mat. order these american made gifts or a gift card at weathertech.com have a very happy father's day. welcome back to "fast money. a double dose of retailers topping the tape let's start off with nike. shares surging 5.5% for the stock's best day since december. it is now more than 7% off its june low target also on the move, jumping 3.5% for its best day since november it's up over 6% since hitting a 52-week low, just two days ago so, there are more good times ahead for these retail lag guards let's start with target, guy >> maybe you will get a little bit more of a bounce talking about potential people

coming in and all those different things and that's why you are probably getting short covering the target problems are still significant, i think, so i probably would be inclined to fade this move nike, i'm curious what tim has to say you mentioned the best day since december well, it was december that it traded down to $103 and bounced. look at the recent low this is bouncing off a very technical level, into earnings at the end of the month i don't think are going to be particularly good. >> before we get to tim's nike for target you though, the problems are real, is it inventory, the mix, the boycott? >> yes but i think the boycott not nearly as much as the other two. there were structural problems in nike long before somebody started talking about boycotts >> tim >> nike is one of the best companies, one of the most resilient consumer discretionary names out there, but i just don't think it should be trading near 30 times. and so, i have a short that gives me some comfort in some other stauff. it's a long way of saying i don't think nike is going to get

away from me on the upside today's move is a combination of, people are looking for underperformers in a market that's rallying. c citibank down graded i think wholesale is a problem for them, we talk about their dtc. and around 100, which is where the stock can go, probably take that off >> i'm going to sell for what you rather did anyone see that coming >> shocking. >> did anyone not see that coming >> melissa certainly did >> i'm going to say walmart, interested -- >> not even the stalks we're talking about. >> bring something out of left field. >> instead of target, i'm going to go with walmart >> our about exxon >> i would fade exxon. and then on the other side of it, if you look -- by the way, sketchers, do you know this is publicly-traded company? never traded, the chart looks unbelievable i take sketchers over nike

>> would you rather rather -- >> and a fade. >> walmart -- >> and a trade >> walmart, sketchers. >> and i fade exxon. >> you have the shoups that you can just, put your foot in -- >> when i'm 90 i'll think about it if you are wearing those, you are living life the wrong way, people sketchers, don't do it >> i hope sketchers is listening and will send guy a pair >> you need a pair. still ahead, procedures piling up, seniors catching up on surgeries delayed by the pandemic and insurance stocks are going under the knife on the news more on that next. plus, nothing is stopping nvidia the semi stock tripling this year and the options pits are betting it will keep gngoi how they're playing it, when "fast money" returns what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today,

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welcome back to "fast money. big swings for stocks today after the federal reserve paused its rate hiking campaign the dow down 230 points. the majority of that drop because of unh more on that in a moment the s&p closing in the green for the fifth day in a row the longest streak since november 2021. and the nasdaq up 0.4%

apple closing at a record. shares hitting an all-time high, back to its ipo in 1980. the tech titan's been on a tear this year, up 42%. dan, what are your thoughts on this run >> which one, on apple >> yeah. >> well, steve, you and i had this conversation, i thought it was one up two down scenario, the stock was 173, you were eyeing that 184 level. i don't think the risk/reward is great. we can talk about it more fa favo favorably. i love the fact they spent two hours at cupertino at this wwdc, and they didn't mention the term a.i. my friend debo -- >> of course >> she mentioned this the other day, she said, that was like the ultimate flex. they didn't mention it once. and they just talked about this product that they knew no one's going to buy, actually, in the next year or so. so, to me, i think about all the platforms that they have to leverage, given their install base, i'm not a buyer here

>> yeah. let's get to united and its brutal day today the insurer warning of rising costs as seniors decide it is time for them to get those surgeries they put off during the pandemic the comments crushing heavily medicare-dependent insurers. meanwhile, medical device makers and hospitals popping higher our next guest says the pain is actually a rare buying opportunity. let's bring in sarah james sarah, great to have you with us you know, they basically said, the medical -- mlr will come in higher than what they had been forecasting but, they kept the eps guide the same so, how should investors interpret this >> yeah, you know, united is a company with a lot of different levers they are crushing it at vertical integration. they've been driving consistent earnings beats so, you look at this as maybe going to the high end of mlr, 6% eps pressure, but they've got a lot of other levers with overhead witto beat it

you have to look at what they're not saying they're not moving eps guide, they're moving mlr guide, and that's really telling about the confidence they have in the rest of the business. >> so, this is sort of a fleeting thing for this quarter for the next quarter >> that depends, because there's a question of pent up demand during the pandemic, the first year, there was 5% to 10% less procedures than normal second year, 2%to 5%, so, wher did all of that go did people go to pt? did they decide, you know, surgery is not for me? or are they coming back into the market now and that's where the big debate is are they coming back, and to what degree and when and it's interesting, because you see humana out there reiterating guidance, saying they are not seeing the same level of utilization pressure or cost pressure, so, it certainly is a debate. >> sarah in the fall of 2019, unh traded down to 11 1/2,

12-forward multiple. we talked about it being ridiculously cheap currently it's at 15 i think it's cheap here. does it have further room to the downside, or this level, i think it's 455 or so, is this an opportunity? >> yeah, you don't often get a high quality company like this trading at a discount in the bargain bin, especially for something that can be transitory like medical costs but you also have to realize, we're going into an election cycle, typically an election year, multiples will compress a turn or two. about a year and a half ahead of the election so, we have to be cognizant of any sector rotation risk, but really, this is a company who is growing low to mid teens eps, great management team, strong balance sheet, trading at a significant discount today looks like a great opportunity for us >> so, based on what unh said, sarah, the device makers win higher, because they are still trying to figure out if people have actually said no to surgery for good or they are going to do

the surgery at this point. are the gains we saw today, are they sustainable or is there still some uncertainty here? >> there's still some uncertainty of how many people are actually going to go through with the surgeries that put them off. we had pretty consistent commentary from surgery centers throughout the pandemic that there was no pent-up demand, that people were rebooking within the same quarter. and this is a new and conflicting data point so, when i think who could win here, i think companies that have more of an underlying trend, like the shift from in patient to outpatient, because you save 25%, and that's someone like a surgery partners or a tenant, especially tenant, because they set guidance expectations for the second quarter so low so, there's a great way to play this sort of trend >> sarah, thank you. good to see you. sarah james. where do you stand on the insurers i'm long united. and we were just talking on the commercial break, as you people know, we do talk, and we were talking about the perfect album and our producer

brought up -- >> my perfect album, boston's first album, of course, "street survivors. >> i think unh has been the perfect stock, and if you think some of the complacency around medicare advantage, everybody thought this was going to be a one-way ticket, this is a stock that's continued to grow and grow aggressively, and they probably have double dejt eps going forward. you're buying weakness this is the stock to weather every different kind of market it has been the perfect stock. i stay long. >> political pressure aspect is interesting, particularly in a year where the biden administration has made, you know, they've definitely gone after drug prices, for one, and the rise in cost of health care so, here they are, sitting squarely in the center of this whole thing. >> i agree and unh looks like a great stock. i've been sucked in and i spit it back out. every time you feel like it's going to rally, you wind up -- you wind up basically having to sell the stock at its lowest

>> family show >> i would go medical device companies and striker would be the one i would go with it i probably think that going forward that's -- >> stryker >> before -- we have a crack staff back in ec can you put up that lower third they had in need of, who wrote that can we see that? natalie doing -- there it is in need of a cure. >> lower third, you see it >> tv jargon guy's got the tv jargon tonight. >> lower third. coming up, the nvidia rally keeps on rolling the stock jumping 5% today, but one options trader says the recent moves are based on fomo. throughout june, cnbc is celebrating pride month. here is the ceo of barry's bootcamp >> i grew up gay and latino in a very homogenous part of the united states and i was definitely made fun of, left out, but what that did to me was it really fueled the fire from

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welcome back to "fast money. nvidia shares jumping to another record high. the semi company adding today, up 50% in just the past month. options traders are betting this isn't going to end any time soon what are you seeing in nvidia? >> i'm seeing a lot. feels like this recent a.i. boom has really sparked this new stage of investors flocking to these assets and nvidia has become the new momentum toy for traders. right, so, from a call side

activity, people are just piling in and buying nvidia calls and i think it's reflected in the skew profile, specifically the skew dated short profile the other thing, when you look at the notes on nvidia, you look at the open interest and most of the open interest is on nvidia july 500 calls which really shows that investors are seeking this type of convexing it feels some what similar to 2021, where people are hoarding into these trades in a sense of foe mow, because theydon't wan to miss the next a.i. boom but like for example today, you know, you look at the volume and you saw a lot of volume in the june 16 420 calls, where nvidia just blew right through that, and then the second-highest was the june 430 calls, which just blew right through that. so, i think what you're seeing is a lot of momentum hoarding, and followed by some gamma squeezing, when people are just hoarding into the derivatives, you get the squeeze pops that follow along, as well. >> yeah.

dan, yesterday you said -- we had this conversation with kayla silver about what you would do with $10,000 >> yeah, went to zero in a day no, i mean, listen i think guy mentioned this this morning, $1 trillion in market cap, gained $60 billion in market cap, going to do $42 billion in sales this year say they blow it out and it's 50, that's just not a natural sort of thing. but i think the way kris is laying it out is really interesting. you're seeing this hoarding towards the thing that is working, and he talked about a term skew that we don't use a lot, usually you see puts more expensive as people reach for protection, in a name like this, you are seeing calls more expensive than puts. there's more demand for upside than downside. that tells you that things are getting out of whack >> if you had $10,000 today, would you -- >> probably did it again today they call it good money after bad. >> kris, thank you for more options, tune into the full showed, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up, is china working on a charm offensive officials are pulling out all

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money. hours ago, bill gates tweeting that he is in beijing for the first time since 2019. and on friday, he is going to meet with china's president xi jinping. this comes ahead of secretary of state's antony blinken's visit this weekend, and that senior chinese officials are convening urgent meetings on the economy with business leaders. so, all this help spur the nation's economy tim, it sounds like they are getting more serious about this. >> china has always had a separate kind of part of their policy, which was about integrates with the west, becoming a national financial center, doing everything to make their markets and their companies investable, and i think they still want this, and bill gates can play an interesting card here, because on some level, he's wild ly respected in that part of the world. and this is a guy, isn't going to necessarily change what's going on d.c. to beijing, but this is an exciting time looking at el merging markets, looking at baba o'reilly, you have a stock that's actually breaking out we talk about a series of trades

in ali bab ba, you have a trade where the dollar doesn't need to go higher, and that's what we have for awhile. especially with the fed and central bank differentials, i think these are trades right now you stay in. >> we have always say that china can do what it wants with its economy, because it has ultimate control. if i that are getting serious and make it more hospitable to foreign investment and prop up the property market -- why can't it accomplish that it should theoretically be able to do that >> until the next round of headlines come out we're in this window now, where, to tim's point, i think, you can start owning these stocks again. when baba traded down to 78, that was, again, one of the series of lower lows, higher highs. but now it's back on its horse i think the stock has -- if you look at the chart, it probably has room maybe to 98 to 100 bucks and then you sell it again. >> yeah, alibaba is the one tha could be a coiled spring here, but to guy's point, every time

they turn the speak kit on, they can turn it back off this week, in a microcosm, you can trade it for a political event, because i think things are probably smoothing out around the edges very, very short-term trade. >> if we are going to believe there's a better recovery in china, should we look at other emerging markets, the suppliers of the natural resources >> i do. i think, by the way, this is very good for germany, but there's no question that if you are investing internationally, the growth engine that was em, sometimes it's not all about china. china's 43% of the index, though, so, you have to be really careful, if you are owning eem. up next, final trades. as far as it does fast. cars as sleek as it is... spacious. as smart... as it is beautiful.

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>> brown nose. >> what about a shoutout for b.k. >> brian kelly nasdaq, the selloff is ridiculous people don't understand this deal >> happy birthday, brian kelly thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm economy is running wayoo